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Biderman On 2012: Long Gold, Short EUR And Stop Praying For A Miracle
Wearing a shirt that only a mother could love, Charles Biderman of TrimTabs offers his insightful perspective on the year ahead. Against the backdrop of a fog-bound Sausalito, Biderman sees only one path over the medium-term for Gold (up) as developed market central bankers print their respective fiat currencies and emerging market central bankers horde the one true sound money alternative. Just as we have been pointing out, he notes that the ECB has been QE-ing in all but name and the region faces at best a recession and at worst a depressionary breakup. Cost averaging into a Long Gold, Short EUR position is among his favorite ideas for 2012. Furthermore, he likes non-USD commodity producers in local currencies - implicitly long commodities and short the USD but it is his epiphany that a 'Miracle on Main Street' is hoped for by any and every market observer and media hack that rings truest. The hoped-for miracle that explosive growth (just as has always been the case post WWII) is just around the corner and will rescue us from the doldrums-like state we are meandering through is simply our heuristic biases run wild (together with an entire industry of asset managers and strategists who always see 10-15% appreciation ahead in broad equity markets over the next year). Until there is a total restructuring of developed market economies to the point where entrepreneurs are encouraged to act and where government spending is 'closer' to government income and not to 'wish fulfillment', there can be no jump-start to growth. Political will remains bereft of desire to do anything but kick the can down the road - and unfortunately, that can is getting bigger and heavier by the minute.
Happy New Year...
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TrimTabs, the same as Weight Watchers, no?
Live in Frisco and walk the hills and you won't need trim tabs, er....I mean weight watchers.
I thought his office was in Santa Rosa. Sausalito is not a short drive to work,
TrimTabs Research gets its name from the "trim tab" in sailing. A trim tab on a boat is a small rudder which is part of the main rudder. (The "rudder of the rudder" if you will). In order to change the direction of the main rudder, you first have to change the direction of the trim tab.
TrimTabs Research uses the term metaphorically for changes in market liquidity (and other indicators) being precursors to larger market moves.
We've got so many SHTF trip wires set up everywhere that if everybody just stands still like Congress and does nothing we'll be ok.
I like his analogy's quick to the point, using simple examples that my 5 year old son or even my wife's brain dead and bubbly girlfriends can understand.
Biderman is a good guy and a straight shooter. He is a real ZH kind of guy. He has said more that once that his research shows that the market over the past few years is totaly BS because there are no real buyers in the market. He suggested that govt money was holding it all up.
They have them on planes as well. Adjust them properly to allow the plane to maintain a level flight path without constantly adjusting the main controls during flight. I suppose you can read into the symbolism in a similar manner.
Read anything you can get your hands on by Bucky, you will not be disappointed.
Here's one starting point:
http://www.netcrucible.com/blog/2005/03/30/synergistics-and-economics/
Learning something new every day on the 0H. Thx.
What changes the direction of the trim tab? The teeny tiny tab?
weight watchers?
i'm not sure, but this paste from tyler's introduction might hold a clue: "...and unfortunately, that can is getting bigger and heavier by the minute."
so, maybe...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A85cZeEOj-0&feature=related I'm sure since we're all interested in the truth here at Zero Hedge you'd like to look at a somewhat more detailed and scholarly analysis; which mentions the possibility of $3/oz. silver; soon enough to be a real concern to present investors.
We'll see three dollar silver only after gas goes under $1.00/gallon.
Everything is possible but 1oz of silver = 1 loaf of shit bread which is consisting of some not specified ingridients would be a bit of a streach don't you think? When we get to that point first you have to forget about internet, TV and other stuff (like cruise missiles, watches and so on), then we would have to have total famine in US. On other hand of course we may face future when bread is worth only 1c/loaf then 3$ silver will be fair value. What is your pick?
Now going to baking process of both, is it energy comparable? What about ingridients, is the scarciry comparable? What about preparing our dough for silver ounce and loaf of bread, is the machinery and labor comparable?
You cant live without bread but at the same time you cant live without silver unless you go back few hundred years back (smaller population, clean air, clean water and so on), is it fair?
Oh look, the guy who is banging the drums for war with Iran just happens to also be anti-PMs. Shocker.
After the dollar collapses and we go back to a gold standard it is likely that silver goes to under $3.00 an ounce and gold is $20.00 dollars a ounce...of coarse,$3.00 dollar a day wage will be middle class when that occurs and median home prices will be $15,000.00...New cars will be $2500.00 Its all relative...
Wrong. gold will be $10,000/oz, silver will be $700 oz, you won't be able to find gasoline, you won't be able to find new cars, bread will be a couple bucks a loaf, you won't have a job but if you did you will make the same you make today, and most houses will be sitting empty do to forclosure. People will be renting but not paying the landlord so he will be taking massive losses. DOW at 10,000 but DXY at 20.
Making fun of his shirt may be amusing. But would you rather take advice from some pretty-boy marketing type in his expensive outer wrapper -- all designed to deceive the viewer? Listen to the ugly guy/gal working from a modest office... maybe.
I cannot see the video. I cannot see it. Could someone describe his shirt and overall appearance? Did he improve his monotone delivery? Any details would be appreciated.
his shirt is.. indescribable
Did he shave today? Is he disheveled, unkempt?
He should prolly do a pod cast, without the video.
he far ahead of the curve. in 2 years time all your posterboys will dress like him. like his brave style ;-)
happy 2012 everybody
I don't have javascript in my browser so I can't see any of the videos or scribd's or anything else. So I can't see his presentation. I'm like a blind man.
I'm curious about his delivery. What's his demeanor? Sanguine or morose?
Acutally, he seemed to give a little chuckle when he mentioned the Wall Street attitude of "the economy will recover because it always has in the past" and "they hope and pray for a miracle" (loose quotes).
Try the NoScript plugin, if available for your browser, so you can allow scripts on only the sites you trust.
Linux is pretty cool too.
I still can't imagine why people continue to use Windows on the internet (or for anything else). Linux is free and takes minimal hard drive space. Puppy Linux will operate just fine on a 1 gig USB drive. Whenever you must use Windows (altho that is really no longer necessary) just select it from the boot menu (disconnect the Ethernet cable or disable Wi-Fi before you do that) and let it boot. You always have the option of using an Apple computer too.
http://www.reactos.org
Complete with kernel level debugger.
The ultimate goal of ReactOS is to allow you to remove Windows® and install ReactOS without the end user noticing the change.
The direct link is
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVFwK-z5FSU
I would say it's Daisy Duke meets the Gypsy Kings.
purple gingham with something bordeline psychedelic embroidered down the front - at a guess, it was bought by a relative for Christmas from a charity shop that sells clothing made by the blind...
It has the overall appearance of something inspired by peyote...
Oh yes that's nice. Very descriptive. Thx.
mexican wedding shirt, meets ozzy and harriet
A Man without Qualities put it this way:
mmmmmmescaline...
Foggy Sausalito but clear advice...
I thought his advice for investing in raw material commodities was dumb. As the EU and the USA sink into deeper depression in 2012, China is not going to need all those raw materials. They have them up the wazoo already. Canada and Oz are headed for some major corrections. Of course, if the Persian Gulf goes up in flames, and oil goes to $250, Canada and Russia will make some nice bucks on their oil.
I agree on the raw material commodities, but I would go long on food commodities, as folks still need to eat.
Wait, I am long food. You should see my pantry. ;-)
And I didn't like the suggestion of investing in commodities in foreign currencies. That seems to me like a "double down" strategy where I think there is just as much of a chance of the dollar strengthening next year. So with his approach you would get a double whammy of stronger dollar pushing commodity prices down.
Long commodities isn't necessarily a play on higher demand in the future. The strategy is applicable when there is a concern about any demand existing in the future, as a hedge against the devaluation of fiat in general or in coordinated fashion across multiple currencies, There are also commodities other than base metals- PMs, Energy, FOOD, etc. Since the entire world (of institutional $s) is hiding in treasuries they are not a sound strategy from a diversification standpoint, or for fat people who know they will need to fit through that fire exit in a rush, and treasuries do nothing but prop-up the fiat ponzi and enable the bankers the keep kicking the can. I don't think it is a particularly brilliant strategy, but what else is one to do?
My Current (personal) Allocations
~1/3 beans, bullion, bullets, bitch(ez) and arable land on 3 continents
~1/3 equities (primarily traded on foreign exchanges [e.g. not the US or Switzerland/EU in my case] and with a significant slice of primary and long term positions held in paper certificate form biased in favor of commodity exposure and dividend yield, and against the USD/EUR/JPY wobble board, adjusting the allocations defensively and for minor profits on a weekly to monthly basis)
~1/3 Cash - that would be actual CASH in certain currencies, cash held in SAFEKEEPING accounts in various currencies, and limited traditional exposure to MMF/Short term high grade sovereigns etc
When the blood actually starts flowing in the streets I am well positioned to start picking the carcasses clean, but it would most likely be by adding to existing positions, since in my mind if the Chinese stop stacking and racking commodities and excess capacity- the market for iCrap for the rich western fatties who like to pretend they live in poverty will be in far worse shape...
Arable land on 3 continents? You wasted your money. What do you think is going to be the state of property rights of foreign owners of land if things get so bad that you will need that arable land? You going to fly to Africa or South America to enforce your title with your beans and bullets? Good luck with that.
Family/blood is a great thing, it allows you to effectively be in more place than once, and they definitely blend in with the locals.
The down side of family is they are statistically more likely to screw you over, the upside is it is easier to test them, so with proper planning, checks and balances, and on a long enough timeline... they're definietly preferable to MF'd Globally of MadeOff with everyon's money...
Out of Hopium!
"likes non-USD commodity producers in local currencies"
Does that matter when they earn most of their money in usd?
Did he just say Shit is Fucked Up and Bullshit
yes I think he called "Bullshit"
Best summary of what is going to happen in Europe - with the Greek music playing in the background:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6-NHK-GzwU
Hopefully all ZHers end up like Vinny Jones at the end LOL! Happy 2012 all!
Central planning has fucked the fundamentals up so bad that there are very few relevent factors anymore. Notably we have oil supply/demand and gold (PM) supply/demand. Oil supply has been flat for six years running now. Considering that the House of Saud has continually said they would raise their output, and haven't, and then considering they are the swing producer, and also considering that oil is finite, I think we will be on the backside of production shortly, if we are not already. Fraking will not mitigate the problem of world oil production, although it wil pad the US inventories. The EROEI of oil sands makes them irrelavent. There is no cure for peak oil.
With supply decreasing, demand would have to decrease at a like amount for equilibrium not to move price. Although demand is decreasing because the Keynesian stimuluses only go so far, I don't think we will see a huge drop off from where we are. The world will move up to a certain point, as nothing is static, and everything is falling apart, known to everyone or not. As far as the US is concerned, that point will be $192pb. This is the number that will turn gdp negative. Once that happens, all bets are off.
If GDP does go negative expect a greater stimulus than the $2 trillion that the Fed has given out each year for three years running. It would need to be around $6 trillion for the year. This would kill the dollar, further pushing up prices. Basically, Bernanke is staring into the void of his policy. Who knows what he will do.
Gold supply/demand is similar. We have seen a mad rush from Central Banks to stack gold on their books to balance out their liabilities. With increases in the chances of defaults around the world, look for this to continue. Look for gold to be spun as an asset (from a reserve) to further the fractional reserve ponzi scheme. Gold is a very simple trade; so simple I am surprised I never hear the big names (Schiff/Faber/Paul) talk about it: the left side of the ledger needs to equal the right. Gold can be used as an asset, reserve, or a liablility, depending on the cercumstances. In this economic climate, the liabilities are maxed out due to toxic debt. That means gold sits on the left side. The easiest thing to do is to move it to an asset and spin loans from it. The next is to loan it and use the cash as collateral. Either way, this increases demand for gold. Gold supply had been decreasing until the last two years. We are now double topping in gold production.
Every other fundamental is very minute. Stats from governments are falsified, reporting is inaccurate: the depression continues. Technicals are handled by algo machines from hell and from central planners like the President's Working Groups. Once one understands PM is monie, and oil, the lifeblood of the economy, is finite and decreasing in supply, one should understand where we are heading. That is all that one must know.
"The EROEI of oil sands makes them irrelavent."
care to explain this?
NG is used in the process and it makes the EROEI extremely low
EROEI is absolute fucking nonsense. It's time for you BP shills to come up with another meme. Different forms of potential energy have hugely different values. Examples of value extremes are jet fuel on one end and unusable, due to the demand, wind generated electricity or "stranded" NG on the other end of usability.
"Energy returned on energy invested" isn't simple enough for you? EROEI does exactly what you end your statement with: it shows the variation in energy output based on input.
And where do you get "BP shill" from? I hate BP.
It matters not whether you hate BP. You are repeating their meme. An unpaid shill is a shill nonetheless.
Not all forms of energy have the same value to society. Therefor EROEI is effectively meaningless. What kind of energy are you referring to? Petroleum, hydro, NG, geophysical, nuclear? They may all be equal in BTUs, but they're not all equal in usefulness. One could perhaps invest ten waste nuclear generated BTUs for one diesel BTU. The EROEI would only be 1/10. That might not be a bad deal. However if one was to invest one BTU of diesel energy to obtain one BTU of ethanol energy, an opposite conclusion is possible even though the EROEI is ten times as great.
Therefor nonsense. QED
Good luck with rewriting the book on EROEI. Please send me a copy when you are done.
As long as BP has ignorant sheep like you, they have nothing to worry about as far as keeping their empire intact.
Where do you want the book mailed to?
Praise the Allmighty BP!!!!
Mix oil sands with a little solvent and a little ionic liquid. The EI falls dramatically.
I doubt you care to consider that, though. Like most peak oilers, you likely use the concept as a religion, and meet any criticism or unsupportive facts with fanatical wailing and ad hominem.
Well then let's keep destroying the Canadian fresh water aquifers to get this dog gone miracle out of the ground!
Heretics should be burned at the stake, eh?
"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him." Leo Tolstoy, 1897
"Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by the rulers as useful." -Lucius Annaeus Seneca
WTF are you talking about? Your argument was demolished by technological advances, so now you are suddenly an environmentalist?
As if aquifers haven't been continuoulsy "destroyed" since day one of hydrocarbon extraction.
tmoseley, why don't you get off your ass and save the world already.
I've got a better idea--how about you stop praying for its destruction, and examine it for what it is?
I'm sick of your judging. I am not praying for anything. I am a proponent of developing solar, and I am a realsit when it comes to the peak of production of oil. Please, get on theoildrum.com and get laughed off, come back here, and apoligize for judging me. Because until your stupid ideas about the earth having a candy center get any traction, I will hold true to the facts that OIL PRODUCTION PLATUED 6 YEARS AGO. Disprove that fact.
Yeah, sure, just like I could go onto the global warming forums, and get laughed off for not beleiving in AGW. You can't convince zealots of anything.
Facts don't matter to peak oilers any more than they matter to AGW people, or any group of religious zealots.
And exactly which of my "ideas" are stupid? I haven't posted any "ideas". Only observations. There are hydrocarbons on Titan. There are hydrocarbons beneath the Atlantic plate. Serpentization reactions occur. Not only that, but oil can also be produced artificially for use as an energy dense fuel (ie for transportation). There are numerous possibilities, but the peak oilers just want to run around screaming about the end of the world. Utter nonsense.
Good luck with rewriting the book on EROEI. Please send me a copy when you are done.
////////////////////////////////////////////
No. It is not about rewriting books on eroei, it is about mentioning that it can be ignored.
It is the point. With US citizenism, there is no other rationale to perform an action than being able to perform that action.
It is somehow incredible that after 200 years of US citizenism, denial about one major characteristic of this doctrine, waste, still is.
Waste will be performed as long as waste is a possible option on the tray.
That is why EROEI is useless.
Ah,
more words of wisdom and hate from our resident 'Tao of POO' distributor.
gotta ask, are you a fuckin idiot?
Doh.
Care to google that?
EROEI = Energy Return On Energy Investment - same concept as conventional ROI. In the case of tar (oops, "oil") sands, it takes almost as much energy to strip off overburden, dig up and transport the tar sand, boil it in a big tank of water till the tar rises to the top, catalytically and thermally reform the tar into something more closely resembling conventional oil, and pump that in a pipeline to distant refineries (whew!) as will be contained in the final refined products. I have seen credible calculations that this is EROEI is about 3; for perspective, during the last depression West Texas crude was produced at an EROEI of almost 100. That latter figure provides an economic surplus that makes it much easier to pull out of a economic contraction.
Figures don't lie. But liars figure.
I've seen calculations concerning the energy required to pump deep oil to the surface that "proves" deep oil is not usable. Those calculations don't take into consideration that the deep oil may be under pressure (it normally is) or what would happen if water were injected into that well from above forcing the oil out.
If one only considers EROEI, then it is not economical to grow food because the amount of energy in that food is less than the solar energy used to create it.
If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit.
Why don't you and tmoseley get on theoildrum.com and let them all know what they don't.
Because we're lazy and you're here and easy? Why do you think?
Theoildrum.com is full of mutual masterbating peak oilers. LNG on Titan and BP's Gulf of Mexico debacle suggest their theory has problems.
ok, no need to answer my earlier question; you ARE a fuckin idiot
how exactly do you think Titan negates peak oil? Are you retarded? What's the expected production rate from Titan, you fucking moron?
EROI is about how much energy YOU have to put into an activity versus the return on it, not how much the fucking SUN does. Clown.
Ah, the deafening sound of the point whizzing over Trav's head. The point of hydrocarbons on Titan is that for hydrocarbons to be on Titan, there must be a production mechanism that does not involve degredation of life forms.
But then, you are well known in most corners for ignoring any and all evidence that runs contrary to any thought that happens to flutter into your otherwise empty little head, so I'm sure you will continue to miss the point, and continue to rant about how anyone who even so much as mentions the words "hydrocarbons on Titan" are "fuckin idiots", despite their very valid point.
This is only slightly off-topic, but strictly speaking the atmosphere of Titan is composed largely of nitrogen (98%) with about 2% methane (CH4). Where does the LNG come into the picture? Are there oceans of it on the surface or something?
Googling as a public service: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/01/090130-titan-methane-rai...
"Methane rains on Saturn's moon Titan may have created a new lake about four times the size of Yellowstone National Park, scientists say.
The new lake covers about 13,000 square miles (34,000 square kilometers). It's part of a system of lakelike features around Titan's south pole."
Natural gas is primarily methane.
So trav, say I have a 10 mile deep hole in the ground into a big pool of oil. According to some calculations I've seen, that oil is not usable because it takes more energy to lift it the 10 miles than the energy contained in the oil from burning it. What if I take some water I'd like to get rid of like sewage and put it in the hole and in so doing the oil rises to the surface of the injected water. I do this until oil starts running out of my hole. What is the EROEI?
What's the difference whether energy that is put into an activity is solar provided or otherwise when one is computing EROEI?
BP in GOM proves the low hanging fruit thoery.
Funny how you peak oilers keep claiming that, while continuously ignoring the fact that BP had applied to drill in the SHALLOW waters off of the LA coast, but was DENIED the right to do so.
According to you logic, we also have peak uranium, because no-one wants to build a nuclear reactor in their back yard.
Tar sand oil is not the same as deep oil under pressure. It is important to also consider externalities.
If you had X energy and Y capital at your disposal, which would you rather extract?
Food does not equal energy for purposes of this debate. Obviously the ratio of energy input to food produced is important--as evidenced in the effects of the green revolution (thank you Bosch) allowing petrol inputs vs merely ox input.
Thx for the explanation. I should have googled it, mea culpa.
the saudi's are sure pumping a lot of sea water, into those fields.
The truth lies for all to see. If you look closely and are not distracted by a ghastly shirt. Stacking up on some Ag at these prices, lost most of it in a really freaky accident involving a rowing boat.
It's a much more believable loss if it's due to a margin call.
We have already entered the twilight zone of a near-zero return, near-zero growth, biflationary economy. Near zero interest rates, near zero real returns on the 10 year, near zero GDP, stocks flat for the year. Reflation policy no longer works because it's accompanied by deflation in other areas of the economy. Even headline core inflation measures are reading near zero despite solid energy, food and raw material inflation. We are entering the economic fog in the developed world. In the developing world they're entering the fire as today Bahrain and Syria erupt. Tomorrow somewhere else
Well, Kurt Vonnegut indicated in his novel, Lonely No More, that days with near zero gravity would result in a permanent erection. Something to look forward to. No reports though from the astronauts, but there may be a cover-up. Also speculated that the Chinese would miniaturize themselves to microscopic size, and that the last POTUS would make an unofficial visit to the King of Michigan who was at war with the Duke of Oklahoma. The POTUS signed over the Louisiana Purchase to the King of Michigan as a gesture of good will.
That's all part of an exciting world. Unfortunately our immediate future holds nothing more than the hazy grey fog of endless zeros, where everything cancels. We won't have a crash, we won't have explosive growth, we won't get a revolution. We'll get the wish for stability at any price that was dreamt up in 2008. We'll get what we wished for: zero. But that will cost.
But if you can get AIG to insure your over the counter swap agreements, and everything goes just the way your quants. have modeled it; you might make %.0015. No basically, I agree; a very expensive zero.
S&P 500 on Dec. 31, 1998 = 1229.23.
S&P 500 on Dec. 31, 2010 = 1257.64
S&P 500 on Dec. 30, 2011 = 1257.60
Somehow, this does not quite resemble the 5% annual increase that many financial calculators use to project one's retirement balance X years out.
Then again, as William Banzai's latest creation said; Count not what is lost, but what is left.
And that is not even adjusted for inflation. It is funny how nobody talks about constant dollars anymore. That was mentioned so many times during my MBA program, but the business world it is like a dark secret. Just like opportunity cost, EBITDA or operating cash flow.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constant_dollars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operating_cash_flow
so.......long gold but short eurusd. wow. what a revelation. i love the garble about non-usd commodity producers. what the fuck is that?
I can understand gold, but the EURO hum... That is up to the printing presses. I think the non-USD producers in their local currency is a play on currency and stock. Look at the value of the Chilean Peso when copper goes down. It is almost instant correlation.
My thoughts exactly, Gringo. He's missed the correlation ZH reaqders should all know. EurUsd correlates to stocks, negative correlation to gold.
The euro will survive; all the crisis was hype. Now that the ECB hus turned on the moneypresses, all the fear is gone. Italy rate is still around 7%; where is the panic from months ago? Faded. The markets know there's now a LOLR. Happy 'no eurocrisis' 2012.
Happy 'no eurocrisis' 2012.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////
Too credible to be accepted. The end is nigh, so much better.
Remember, in the US of A, hometown of US citizenism, US citizens are waiting for Jesus to come during their lifetime one generation from another.
Yeah, I was wondering the same today. Just an hour ago I went to gawk at that 10yr bond yield chart of theirs and I was thinking how it looks just as horrendous as before - if not worse, since a "solution" was sought and reportedly found and doesn't appear to work - and yet the MSM entitles their news with moronic titles as "US shrugs Italy debt worries on recovery in <insert something insignificant>".
Great stuff, they're helping us obtain PMs at lower prices!
They're in the denial phase, but nothing can last very long with 20% unemployment (Spain). As for MSM the mantra to the public has become "don't look too close, you might not like what you see". If you've been following news from Greece you'll understand why. The nightmare of crumbling society and economic infrastructure is well underway. And it's ugly.
The monolog was very enjoyable. His shirt was checker board brown with green swirls in the middle.
Biderman presented well and says only good things for Gold and commodities, and shorting the fiat currencies.
Major doses of hopium and can kicking in 2011 will persist into 2012.
Get commodities priced in other stronger currencies...it seems logical, but it is definitely a specific market segment to get into these types of investments. So then need to get TrimTab's avice ?
Besides the "hidden" sales pitch a very simple (and good) overview.
LookingWithAmazement
Now that the ECB hus turned on the moneypresses, all the fear is gone.
Don't you mean since QE has never stopped and now the Fed is supporting the ECB?,dumping frns from US to keep them afloat?.
You forgot that "teeeny" detail..............
The crisis was just to pressure ECB into finally printing. Crisis over, but devaluation is the name of the game for every economy. Long gold once the dust settles.
The Golden Horde was not made of Gold. Perhaps the bankers are more like Atilla the Hun than goldsmiths.
Horde, hoard, what is the difference?
http://www.educationbug.org/a/hoard-vs-horde.html
Paraphrasing Yakov Smirnof: What a language!
As a community, we ZeroHedgers seem to have an inordinate amount of trouble with freaky boating accidents, so I thought it wise for the New Year to share some boat safety tips:
http://www.boat-ed.com/?gclid=CIqO06XsrK0CFYFx4AodPS8dsg
Lolz you lil fukers. Nice link.
I don't know what it is, probably an inner ear problem... but I love to hold my gold when I'm boating and I'm terribly, terribly clumsy. Someone with an under water metal detector could do extremely well, but I also can't seem to remember which lake it was.
I remember the lake, but Superior is SOOOO big, and I don't have LORAN or GPS....
It was over by that one spot where the log was floating...you know, that one place, just a little way off shore.
I was on Loch Ness and the monster ate it
...and then asked for about tree fiddy.
Our equities were at 0% return in 2011 and the rest of the world was in -10 to -20% negative returns on equities. See table here:
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2011/12/30/2011-a-year-in-review...
Either the U.S. is the equities bomb shelter (like Treasuries) OR the U.S. is the next shoe to drop.
Take your pick.
As Tyler says, the US is just lagging...
Safe haven or prettiest turd in the bowl.
i've talked to a lot of people and nobody thinks a miracle is going to occur, everyone i talk to thinks things are going to suck because of europe
I still think Europe will monetize.
Humans choose the easy path over the correct path. It is our nature.
Draghi did. He loaned the $600 billion of the $1 trillion he got from the Fed to banks. They buy debt from sovereigns, flip them to the ECB, done and done.
"Will" implies a future act. Europe is monetizing their debt.
Europe will continue to monetize. There is no way they can't monetize -- even if they didn't want to -- with the Fed monetizing about half of U.S. govt. expenditures, without closing their borders to trade completely.
We need to get out definitions straight. To my thinking, "monetize" means the unbacked issuance of currency. That is not what the Fed is doing. They are buying Treasury debt. It would only be monetization if they then turned around and burned the T-bills they are buying.
I still think Europe will monetize.Humans choose the easy path over the correct path. It is our nature.
Right on!
I hope they(ECB) do continue to monetize. The more fiat sloshing around in the world makes my gold and sliver just that much more valuable. 'Cause after the SHTF and dust settles, people will need to trade. Gold and silver will again be "real money".
Rev up those Euro presses!!
Sorry hairball, devaluing currency does not make your PMs more valuable. They just maintain your wealth (which ain't a bad thing).
Its like saying "I'll give you 20 Jr burgers instead of 10 regulars". Woohoo! I've doubled my number of burgers!
I agree on post-SHTF. We (you, I and other stackers) will have carried our wealth through the crisis into whatever is to follow. No so for those who store their wealth in fiat currencies.
Not exactly because a demand shortage can place a premium on physical. That premium can create wealth instead of just storing value.
How can it create wealth, unless one measures "wealth" in fiats? Does a (dollar) "premium" on physical get you more ounces of physical?
The same way it can destroy wealth if nobody wants gold, only in reverse. I'd say purchasing power is a better measure than fiat exchange rate. e.g. if suddenly my 1oz physical gold buys a bmw due to premium/demand (rather than BMW deflation), then I have gained wealth, not just maintained value. There are many ways to look at this, though. That's just how I see it. If you don't, cool.
Gold is up like 400% since 1998. The dollar isn't down 400% in that time. So, I'd say people who bought in 1999 have gained purchasing power.
How could you have gained wealth if the BMW is worth less? Do you measure wealth in BMWs or ounces of gold or in fiats?
If gold is money and dollars are only debt instruments, which should be obvious to anyone, the gold isn't "up like 400% since 1998" -- the dollar is down 400% instead.
What is "money" to you -- gold or debt?
You can measure it in gallons of gas or milk, you can measure it in acres, you can measure it in comparison to a house, etc.
So you're saying that wealth can be measured in gallons of milk and if there's a demand shortage of milk, then you have more wealth and since wealth's measured in gallons of milk, you now have more milk?
I'm beginning to understand how it's possible that you swallowed the EROEI meme so thoroughly.
Try measuring it against your wages. Can you buy as much now as you could have in 2001? Not even close, so relative to your wage, an important and very tangible measure, you have created wealth. EOS.
http://www.coveringdelta.com/2011/12/31/bankers-to-be-crucified-upon-a-c...
?Bankers to be Crucified upon a Cross of Gold
.
“My own financial operations have been very simple. I started with the policy of buying and selling for Cash, keeping a large fund of cash always on hand, taking full advantage of all discounts, and collecting interest on bank balances. I regard a bank principally as a place in which it is safe and convenient to keep money…The place to finance a manufacturing business is the shop, and not the bank. I would say that a man in business needs to know nothing at all about finance, but he is better off knowing too little than too much, for if he becomes too expert he will get into the way of thinking that he can borrow money instead of earning it and then he will borrow more money to pay back what he has borrowed, and instead of being a business man, he will be a note juggler, trying to keep in the air a regular flock of bonds and notes…We are not against borrowing money and we are not against bankers. We are against trying to make borrowed money take the place of work. We are against the kind of banker who regards a business as a melon to be cut…The time for a business man to borrow money, if ever, is when he does not need it.”
- Henry Ford, My Life and Work (Chapter 11: Money and Goods)
Contrary to popular belief, bankers don’t actually want the borrower to pay back the loan. They want to find that perfect interest rate which will create a steady yet large return on capital in perpetuity, with the balance of the loan remaining psychologically manageable in the mind of the borrower, but by any objective calculation, incapable of being repaid. A company like Apple, with a levered free cash flow most recently of 20 billion dollars, and that had more cash on hand at one point than the US treasury (at $76 billion in the month of August) is JP Morgan’s worst nightmare." ...
But Apple is the exception (and who knows, maybe even Apple isn’t all that tough in today’s Bankocracy) in a world where the owners of capital bow before the issuers of credit as though they were modern day serfs – a slight exaggeration, though not an unwarranted one. And that’s the dirty little secret that shows like “Ed” on MSNBC and “Bill O’Reilly” on Fox News don’t want you to know. If you are part of the “99%”, it isn’t the “1%” you should be mad at, and likewise, if you are part of the “1%” it isn’t the “99%” that you should be afraid of. It isn’t the owners of capital that are your enemy if you are unemployed, and it isn’t the unemployed that are out to get you if you have capital. The unemployed by and large aren’t lazy, and the rich by and large aren’t greedy. It is those privileged few in society who need neither capital nor labor in order to live high on the hog that we should all pay close attention to. In a really perverse way, the enemy of both capital, as well as labor today is credit. Credit, backed by fiat, convention and the force of law. The enemy is a cartel of highly interconnected and criminal banking oligarchs who function in a vacuum of capital, but by the grace of modern central banking, have the godly power to emit bills of credit to whomever they choose, consolidating the country’s wealth in exponential fashion. If they have their way for much longer, there won’t be a penny of capital left in this economy for the capitalists, and at that point the emitters of credit will be free to “press down upon the bleeding brow of labor and capital this crown of thorns.”"
Kicking the can has made many of us a lot of money as PMs outperformed everything else. Biderman is saying that when the end of kick the can happens, gold bugs get their payout.
Yes, and no. Prior to the end, TPTB will no longer have the motivation to hold up stocks, or to stay their hands in PM manipulation. They will let stocks plummet and ruthlessly drive down gold and silver because if you put yourself in their places, it's good for them, gives them great bargains to pick up, and softens up our resistance to change with good ole fashioned fear so that we will accept any changes in the system they propose. 2012 will be a year in which you see stocks and PMs crash, and then overnight, PMs will rocket to the moon because Ben will take tool #5 out of his toolbox:
If Biderman is saying gold bugs will get their payout without feeling this pain, he is horribly wrong. Get ready, the end of the game is coming, and the people who want to shake you out have unlimited fiat and will have nothing to lose at this point. The beatdown, which will make the previous ones look like child's play, will be psychologically withering to anyone who hasn't anticipated it. In fact, it may already be underweigh. If they want to save Obama, the devaluation has to come before May in order to give the economy time to "grow." Remember the type of "growth" we experienced in 2009? You haven't seen anything yet. The Keynesians will point to the stock market ramping like it did after the last devaluation of the currency in 1933, but it will have the same results. The sugar buzz will wear off after a 75%-100% ramp in equities, but then we will be right back where we started having to devalue and print again.
Smiddy's prediction for 2012:
Hold tight to your physical. The mind games are about to begin. We'll see very low prices in stocks and PMs and then unbelieveably high prices, esp. in PMs.
Summary: The world's not coming to an end this coming year, but it's going to feel like it. Somebody has to pay for all this foolishness, and the payers will be lining up for their tatoo identifications by the end of the year. It's not going to be me, I am holding my PMs through the whole multi year ordeal.
Respectfully, I think you've got that wrong. The plan is just slow devaluation like we've seen the last 30 years.
If you devalue by 10% a year, in 32 years your purchasing power loses about 94% -- just about right if your goal is to make retirees and welfare queens think they're getting the benefits promised.
No way we get a gold standard ever again. TPTB like to be able finance their wars and vote buying with nothing by fiat. That power won't be relinquished.
2012 is the year of nothing. No crisis. Just boredom. A few cruise missles thrown around but no world war.
Yeah, nothing big like earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, flooding and so on to cause anyone to do anything stupid like trying to get the ever scarcer food for ever higher, by force if necessary.
But it would never happen here.
Reminds me of the forester from MW.
Oh please, people aren't that stupid. No one is going to be happy getting their $2000 a month SS payment if bread costs $100 a loaf. This "inflation makes it easier to service our debt" argument is stupid. It only works if food, energy, housing, and insurance costs don't go up at the same rate as inflation, but they also do.
...another link for Biderman On 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVFwK-z5FSU
I have to agree, I don't see any mircles dropping from heaven to save us. I'm not a huge Hilary Clinton fan but I did like what she said some time back "Hope is not a strategy"
VR - Billary Clinton did not say that. It was Srah Palin quoting a Dean of Webster Univ in StL.
And of course it's not a strategy!
Another "dishelveled" bear who got it totally wrong in 2011.
My guess is that he's going to be buried by the bulls in 2012.
The Euro Crisis is now over, stocks are probably going to slowly grind up higher and higher.
And there will be many sharp corrections which will quickly recover, just like last year.
It pays to be an optimistic bull most of the time, especially when the market is acting well in the face of bad news.
The time to be a bear is when the economy and news flow is good but the market is acting poorly.
I'm looking forward to another excellent year in the markets.
I'll be scaling out of my dividend stocks and will start rotating into more cyclical and growth names next year.
You're going to get wiped out. I don't wish it on you, I enjoy reading your posts. You're funny, like a clown. You're here for my amusement.
But based on your stated strategy, you're going to get wiped out.
"The Euro Crisis is now over..." Consider that statement logged for future reference. Will look for you in a year to see how it played out. As the blackjack dealers say in that annoying monotone after they exchange your fiat for chips, "good luck."
I would short Euro indeed but if it goes down, it will add pressure to Gold quoted in USD.
www.theimperatore.blogspot.com
Am I the only one to notice the SNOWFLAKE?
Nice festive touch on a decent vid.
Charles Biderman rules. I met the dude in Vegas at the money show and he was the best presenter.
I bet he picked up some really good dank in frisco. Someone should tell him his background looks like one of those tsunami vids from Japan though.
Long , ( xau) and short WHAT? I called 1537 2 weeks ago. Gold is a great investment. Where in the Hell is Peter ( 2.5K), Schiff?
Spanking his Irish Carrot, I Say! /sarc on...
What's wrong with his shirt. I have one just like it!
Or $2.2 million per de-facto taxpayer, take your pick!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/01/the-federal-unbalance...
He is todays in style Jew of the Month!
http://www.robertgraham.us/shopmen/dressshirts.html
All of todays Jews are wearing the hard to find.. classic lines provided by! None other than Robert Graham!
Until you have a closet filled with Robert Graham shirts you would NEVER!! Wear! you have not lived.
Happy New Year!
The German band called. They want their shirt back.