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Biderman On 2012: Long Gold, Short EUR And Stop Praying For A Miracle

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Wearing a shirt that only a mother could love, Charles Biderman of TrimTabs offers his insightful perspective on the year ahead. Against the backdrop of a fog-bound Sausalito, Biderman sees only one path over the medium-term for Gold (up) as developed market central bankers print their respective fiat currencies and emerging market central bankers horde the one true sound money alternative. Just as we have been pointing out, he notes that the ECB has been QE-ing in all but name and the region faces at best a recession and at worst a depressionary breakup. Cost averaging into a Long Gold, Short EUR position is among his favorite ideas for 2012. Furthermore, he likes non-USD commodity producers in local currencies - implicitly long commodities and short the USD but it is his epiphany that a 'Miracle on Main Street' is hoped for by any and every market observer and media hack that rings truest. The hoped-for miracle that explosive growth (just as has always been the case post WWII) is just around the corner and will rescue us from the doldrums-like state we are meandering through is simply our heuristic biases run wild (together with an entire industry of asset managers and strategists who always see 10-15% appreciation ahead in broad equity markets over the next year). Until there is a total restructuring of developed market economies to the point where entrepreneurs are encouraged to act and where government spending is 'closer' to government income and not to 'wish fulfillment', there can be no jump-start to growth. Political will remains bereft of desire to do anything but kick the can down the road - and unfortunately, that can is getting bigger and heavier by the minute.

Happy New Year...

 

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Sat, 12/31/2011 - 12:46 | 2023611 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

TrimTabs, the same as Weight Watchers, no?

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 12:49 | 2023613 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Live in Frisco and walk the hills and you won't need trim tabs, er....I mean weight watchers. 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 17:51 | 2023978 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I thought his office was in Santa Rosa.  Sausalito is not a short drive to work,

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 12:52 | 2023614 Popo
Popo's picture

TrimTabs Research gets its name from the "trim tab" in sailing.   A trim tab on a boat is a small rudder which is part of the main rudder.     (The "rudder of the rudder" if you will).   In order to change the direction of the main rudder, you first have to change the direction of the trim tab.

TrimTabs Research uses the term metaphorically for changes in market liquidity (and other indicators) being precursors to larger market moves.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:02 | 2023626 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

We've got so many SHTF trip wires set up everywhere that if everybody just stands still like Congress and does nothing we'll be ok.  

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:15 | 2023636 Gohn Galt
Gohn Galt's picture

I like his analogy's quick to the point, using simple examples that my 5 year old son or even my wife's brain dead and bubbly girlfriends can understand.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 02:55 | 2026027 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Biderman is a good guy and a straight shooter.  He is a real ZH kind of guy.  He has said more that once that his research shows that the market over the past few years is totaly BS because there are no real buyers in the market.  He suggested that govt money was holding it all up.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:37 | 2023664 Popo
Popo's picture

 

"Something hit me very hard once, thinking about what one little man could do. Think of the Queen Mary—the whole ship goes by and then comes the rudder. 

And there's a tiny thing at the edge of the rudder called a trim tab.

It's a miniature rudder. Just moving the little trim tab builds a low pressure that pulls the rudder around. Takes almost no effort at all.

So I said that the little individual can be a trim tab. Society thinks it's going right by you, that it's left you altogether. But if you're doing dynamic things mentally, the fact is that you can just put your foot out like that and the whole big ship of state is going to go.

So I said, call me a Trim Tab." —Buckminster Fuller
Sat, 12/31/2011 - 16:26 | 2023900 indygo55
indygo55's picture

They have them on planes as well. Adjust them properly to allow the plane to maintain a level flight path without constantly adjusting the main controls during flight. I suppose you can read into the symbolism in a similar manner.

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 15:52 | 2025008 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Read anything you can get your hands on by Bucky, you will not be disappointed.

Here's one starting point:

http://www.netcrucible.com/blog/2005/03/30/synergistics-and-economics/

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:39 | 2023741 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Learning something new every day on the 0H. Thx.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 23:03 | 2024249 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

What changes the direction of the trim tab?  The teeny tiny tab?

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 12:59 | 2023623 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

weight watchers?

i'm not sure, but this paste from tyler's introduction might hold a clue: "...and unfortunately, that can is getting bigger and heavier by the minute."

so, maybe...

 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 15:40 | 2023845 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A85cZeEOj-0&feature=related I'm sure since we're all interested in the truth here at Zero Hedge you'd like to look at a somewhat more detailed and scholarly analysis; which mentions the possibility of $3/oz. silver; soon enough to be a real concern to present investors.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 16:32 | 2023908 Manthong
Manthong's picture

We'll see three dollar silver only after gas goes under $1.00/gallon.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 19:55 | 2024036 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Everything is possible but 1oz of silver = 1 loaf of shit bread which is consisting of some not specified ingridients would be a bit of a streach don't you think? When we get to that point first you have to forget about internet, TV and other stuff (like cruise missiles, watches and so on), then we would have to have total famine in US. On other hand of course we may face future when bread is worth only 1c/loaf then 3$ silver will be fair value. What is your pick?

Now going to baking process of both, is it energy comparable? What about ingridients, is the scarciry comparable? What about preparing our dough for silver ounce and loaf of bread, is the machinery and labor comparable?

You cant live without bread but at the same time you cant live without silver unless you go back few hundred years back (smaller population, clean air, clean water and so on), is it fair? 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 19:21 | 2024044 XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

Oh look, the guy who is banging the drums for war with Iran just happens to also be anti-PMs. Shocker.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 20:00 | 2024071 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

After the dollar collapses and we go back to a gold standard it is likely that silver goes to under $3.00 an ounce and gold is $20.00 dollars a ounce...of coarse,$3.00 dollar a day wage will be middle class when that occurs and median home prices will be $15,000.00...New cars will be $2500.00 Its all relative...

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 20:58 | 2024120 ultimate warrior
ultimate warrior's picture

Wrong.  gold will be $10,000/oz, silver will be $700 oz, you won't be able to find gasoline, you won't be able to find new cars, bread will be a couple bucks a loaf, you won't have a job but if you did you will make the same you make today, and most houses will be sitting empty do to forclosure.  People will be renting but not paying the landlord so he will be taking massive losses.  DOW at 10,000 but DXY at 20.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 16:37 | 2023911 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Making fun of his shirt may be amusing.  But would you rather take advice from some pretty-boy marketing type in his expensive outer wrapper -- all designed to deceive the viewer?  Listen to the ugly guy/gal working from a modest office... maybe.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 12:49 | 2023612 youLilQuantFuker
youLilQuantFuker's picture

I cannot see the video. I cannot see it. Could someone describe his shirt and overall appearance? Did he improve his monotone delivery? Any details would be appreciated.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:05 | 2023628 RacerX
RacerX's picture

his shirt is.. indescribable

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:16 | 2023638 youLilQuantFuker
youLilQuantFuker's picture

Did he shave today? Is he disheveled, unkempt?

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:52 | 2023686 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

He should prolly do a pod cast, without the video.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:08 | 2023701 h3m1ngw4y
h3m1ngw4y's picture

he far ahead of the curve. in 2 years time all your posterboys will dress like him. like his brave style ;-)

happy 2012 everybody

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:26 | 2023722 youLilQuantFuker
youLilQuantFuker's picture

I don't have javascript in my browser so I can't see any of the videos or scribd's or anything else. So I can't see his presentation. I'm like a blind man.

I'm curious about his delivery. What's his demeanor? Sanguine or morose?

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 15:02 | 2023781 s2man
s2man's picture

Acutally, he seemed to give a little chuckle when he mentioned the Wall Street attitude of "the economy will recover because it always has in the past" and "they hope and pray for a miracle" (loose quotes). 

Try the NoScript plugin, if available for your browser, so you can allow scripts on only the sites you trust.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 19:45 | 2024062 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Linux is pretty cool too.

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 00:25 | 2024320 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I still can't imagine why people continue to use Windows on the internet (or for anything else). Linux is free and takes minimal hard drive space. Puppy Linux will operate just fine on a 1 gig USB drive. Whenever you must use Windows (altho that is really no longer necessary) just select it from the boot menu (disconnect the Ethernet cable or disable Wi-Fi before you do that) and let it boot. You always have the option of using an Apple computer too.

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 08:20 | 2024474 youLilQuantFuker
youLilQuantFuker's picture

http://www.reactos.org

Complete with kernel level debugger.

The ultimate goal of ReactOS is to allow you to remove Windows® and install ReactOS without the end user noticing the change.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 21:34 | 2024162 TheFourthStooge-ing
Sat, 12/31/2011 - 16:54 | 2023926 swani
swani's picture

I would say it's Daisy Duke meets the Gypsy Kings. 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:18 | 2023715 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

purple gingham with something bordeline psychedelic embroidered down the front - at a guess, it was bought by a relative for Christmas from a charity shop that sells clothing made by the blind...

It has the overall appearance of something inspired by peyote...

 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:33 | 2023734 youLilQuantFuker
youLilQuantFuker's picture

Oh yes that's nice. Very descriptive. Thx.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 16:21 | 2023895 delacroix
delacroix's picture

mexican wedding shirt, meets ozzy and harriet

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 21:38 | 2024167 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

A Man without Qualities put it this way:

It has the overall appearance of something inspired by peyote...

mmmmmmescaline...

 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 12:54 | 2023617 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Foggy Sausalito but clear advice...

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:51 | 2023683 el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

I thought his advice for investing in raw material commodities was dumb.  As the EU and the USA sink into deeper depression in 2012, China is not going to need all those raw materials.  They have them up the wazoo already.  Canada and Oz are headed for some major corrections.  Of course, if the Persian Gulf goes up in flames, and oil goes to $250, Canada and Russia will make some nice bucks on their oil.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 15:05 | 2023789 s2man
s2man's picture

I agree on the raw material commodities, but I would go long on food commodities, as folks still need to eat.

Wait, I am long food.  You should see my pantry. ;-)

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 17:19 | 2023943 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

And I didn't like the suggestion of investing in commodities in foreign currencies. That seems to me like a "double down" strategy where I think there is just as much of a chance of the dollar strengthening next year. So with his approach you would get a double whammy of stronger dollar pushing commodity prices down.

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 07:58 | 2024472 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Long commodities isn't necessarily a play on higher demand in the future.  The strategy is applicable when there is a concern about any demand existing in the future, as a hedge against the devaluation of fiat in general or in coordinated fashion across multiple currencies,  There are also commodities other than base metals- PMs, Energy, FOOD, etc.  Since the entire world (of institutional $s) is hiding in treasuries they are not a sound strategy from a diversification standpoint, or for fat people who know they will need to fit through that fire exit in a rush, and treasuries do nothing but prop-up the fiat ponzi and enable the bankers the keep kicking the can.   I don't think it is a particularly brilliant strategy, but what else is one to do?

 

My Current (personal) Allocations

 

~1/3 beans, bullion, bullets, bitch(ez) and arable land on 3 continents

~1/3 equities (primarily traded on foreign exchanges [e.g. not the US or Switzerland/EU in my case] and with a significant slice of primary and long term positions held in paper certificate form  biased in favor of commodity exposure and dividend yield, and against the USD/EUR/JPY wobble board, adjusting the allocations defensively and for minor profits on a weekly to monthly basis) 

~1/3 Cash  - that would be actual CASH in certain currencies, cash held in SAFEKEEPING accounts in various currencies, and limited traditional exposure to MMF/Short term high grade sovereigns etc

 

When the blood actually starts flowing in the streets I am well positioned to start picking the carcasses clean, but it would most likely be by adding to existing positions, since in my mind if the Chinese stop stacking and racking commodities and excess capacity- the market for iCrap for the rich western fatties who like to pretend they live in poverty will be in far worse shape...

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 23:04 | 2025755 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Arable land on 3 continents? You wasted your money. What do you think is going to be the state of property rights of foreign owners of land if things get so bad that you will need that arable land? You going to fly to Africa or South America to enforce your title with your beans and bullets? Good luck with that.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 05:39 | 2026120 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Family/blood is a great thing, it allows you to effectively be in more place than once, and they definitely blend in with the locals. 

The down side of family is they are statistically more likely to screw you over, the upside is it is easier to test them, so with proper planning, checks and balances, and on a long enough timeline... they're definietly preferable to MF'd Globally of MadeOff with everyon's money... 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 12:54 | 2023619 StrangerThanFiction
StrangerThanFiction's picture

Out of Hopium!

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 12:57 | 2023621 Charlie
Charlie's picture

"likes non-USD commodity producers in local currencies"

Does that matter when they earn most of their money in usd?

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 12:59 | 2023624 uno
uno's picture

Did he just say Shit is Fucked Up and Bullshit

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:06 | 2023630 RacerX
RacerX's picture

yes I think he called "Bullshit"

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:18 | 2023631 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Best summary of what is going to happen in Europe - with the Greek music playing in the background:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6-NHK-GzwU

Hopefully all ZHers end up like Vinny Jones at the end LOL! Happy 2012 all!

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:24 | 2023639 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Central planning has fucked the fundamentals up so bad that there are very few relevent factors anymore.  Notably we have oil supply/demand and gold (PM) supply/demand.  Oil supply has been flat for six years running now.  Considering that the House of Saud has continually said they would raise their output, and haven't, and then considering they are the swing producer, and also considering that oil is finite, I think we will be on the backside of production shortly, if we are not already.  Fraking will not mitigate the problem of world oil production, although it wil pad the US inventories.  The EROEI of oil sands makes them irrelavent.  There is no cure for peak oil.

With supply decreasing, demand would have to decrease at a like amount for equilibrium not to move price.  Although demand is decreasing because the Keynesian stimuluses only go so far, I don't think we will see a huge drop off from where we are.  The world will move up to a certain point, as nothing is static, and everything is falling apart, known to everyone or not.  As far as the US is concerned, that point will be $192pb.  This is the number that will turn gdp negative.  Once that happens, all bets are off.

If GDP does go negative expect a greater stimulus than the $2 trillion that the Fed has given out each year for three years running.  It would need to be around $6 trillion for the year.  This would kill the dollar, further pushing up prices.  Basically, Bernanke is staring into the void of his policy.  Who knows what he will do.

Gold supply/demand is similar.  We have seen a mad rush from Central Banks to stack gold on their books to balance out their liabilities.  With increases in the chances of defaults around the world, look for this to continue.  Look for gold to be spun as an asset (from a reserve) to further the fractional reserve ponzi scheme.  Gold is a very simple trade; so simple I am surprised I never hear the big names (Schiff/Faber/Paul) talk about it:  the left side of the ledger needs to equal the right.  Gold can be used as an asset, reserve, or a liablility, depending on the cercumstances.  In this economic climate, the liabilities are maxed out due to toxic debt.  That means gold sits on the left side.  The easiest thing to do is to move it to an asset and spin loans from it.  The next is to loan it and use the cash as collateral.  Either way, this increases demand for gold.  Gold supply had been decreasing until the last two years.  We are now double topping in gold production.

Every other fundamental is very minute.  Stats from governments are falsified, reporting is inaccurate: the depression continues.  Technicals are handled by algo machines from hell and from central planners like the President's Working Groups.  Once one understands PM is monie, and oil, the lifeblood of the economy, is finite and decreasing in supply, one should understand where we are heading.  That is all that one must know.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:40 | 2023672 Charlie
Charlie's picture

"The EROEI of oil sands makes them irrelavent."

care to explain this?

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:41 | 2023675 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

NG is used in the process and it makes the EROEI extremely low

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:21 | 2023717 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

EROEI is absolute fucking nonsense.  It's time for you BP shills to come up with another meme.  Different forms of potential energy have hugely different values.  Examples of value extremes are jet fuel on one end and unusable, due to the demand, wind generated electricity or "stranded" NG on the other end of usability.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:41 | 2023723 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

"Energy returned on energy invested" isn't simple enough for you?  EROEI does exactly what you end your statement with:  it shows the variation in energy output based on input.

And where do you get "BP shill" from?  I hate BP.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:45 | 2023746 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

It matters not whether you hate BP.  You are repeating their meme.  An unpaid shill is a shill nonetheless.

Not all forms of energy have the same value to society.  Therefor EROEI is effectively meaningless.  What kind of energy are you referring to?  Petroleum, hydro, NG, geophysical, nuclear?  They may all be equal in BTUs, but they're not all equal in usefulness.  One could perhaps invest ten waste nuclear generated BTUs for one diesel BTU.  The EROEI would only be 1/10.  That might not be a bad deal.  However if one was to invest one BTU of diesel energy to obtain one BTU of ethanol energy, an opposite conclusion is possible even though the EROEI is ten times as great.

Therefor nonsense.  QED

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:50 | 2023762 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Good luck with rewriting the book on EROEI.  Please send me a copy when you are done.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:56 | 2023772 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

As long as BP has ignorant sheep like you, they have nothing to worry about as far as keeping their empire intact.

Where do you want the book mailed to?

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 15:16 | 2023820 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Igorant Sheep

666 Lucifer's Drive

Devil's City, Hell

77777

Praise the Allmighty BP!!!!

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:58 | 2023776 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Mix oil sands with a little solvent and a little ionic liquid.  The EI falls dramatically.

I doubt you care to consider that, though.  Like most peak oilers, you likely use the concept as a religion, and meet any criticism or unsupportive facts with fanatical wailing and ad hominem.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 15:14 | 2023805 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Well then let's keep destroying the Canadian fresh water aquifers to get this dog gone miracle out of the ground!

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 15:56 | 2023870 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Heretics should be burned at the stake, eh?

"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him." Leo Tolstoy, 1897

"Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by the rulers as useful." -Lucius Annaeus Seneca

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 18:55 | 2024030 tmosley
tmosley's picture

WTF are you talking about?  Your argument was demolished by technological advances, so now you are suddenly an environmentalist?

As if aquifers haven't been continuoulsy "destroyed" since day one of hydrocarbon extraction.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 19:47 | 2024064 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

tmoseley, why don't you get off your ass and save the world already.

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 00:01 | 2024304 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I've got a better idea--how about you stop praying for its destruction, and examine it for what it is?

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 00:08 | 2024311 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I'm sick of your judging.  I am not praying for anything.  I am a proponent of developing solar, and I am a realsit when it comes to the peak of production of oil.  Please, get on theoildrum.com and get laughed off, come back here, and apoligize for judging me.  Because until your stupid ideas about the earth having a candy center get any traction, I will hold true to the facts that OIL PRODUCTION PLATUED 6 YEARS AGO.  Disprove that fact.

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 01:25 | 2024361 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yeah, sure, just like I could go onto the global warming forums, and get laughed off for not beleiving in AGW.  You can't convince zealots of anything.

Facts don't matter to peak oilers any more than they matter to AGW people, or any group of religious zealots.

And exactly which of my "ideas" are stupid?  I haven't posted any "ideas".  Only observations.  There are hydrocarbons on Titan.  There are hydrocarbons beneath the Atlantic plate.  Serpentization reactions occur.  Not only that, but oil can also be produced artificially for use as an energy dense fuel (ie for transportation).  There are numerous possibilities, but the peak oilers just want to run around screaming about the end of the world.  Utter nonsense.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 15:40 | 2023848 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Good luck with rewriting the book on EROEI. Please send me a copy when you are done.
////////////////////////////////////////////

No. It is not about rewriting books on eroei, it is about mentioning that it can be ignored.

It is the point. With US citizenism, there is no other rationale to perform an action than being able to perform that action.

It is somehow incredible that after 200 years of US citizenism, denial about one major characteristic of this doctrine, waste, still is.

Waste will be performed as long as waste is a possible option on the tray.

That is why EROEI is useless.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 18:11 | 2023992 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Ah,

more words of wisdom and hate from our resident 'Tao of POO' distributor.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 23:22 | 2024261 trav7777
trav7777's picture

gotta ask, are you a fuckin idiot?

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:48 | 2023680 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Doh.

Care to google that?

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:56 | 2023690 Errol
Errol's picture

EROEI = Energy Return On Energy Investment - same concept as conventional ROI.  In the case of tar (oops, "oil") sands, it takes almost as much energy to strip off overburden, dig up and transport the tar sand, boil it in a big tank of water till the tar rises to the top, catalytically and thermally reform the tar into something more closely resembling conventional oil, and pump that in a pipeline to distant refineries (whew!) as will be contained in the final refined products.  I have seen credible calculations that this is EROEI is about 3; for perspective, during the last depression West Texas crude was produced at an EROEI of almost 100.  That latter figure provides an economic surplus that makes it much easier to pull out of a economic contraction.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 16:05 | 2023879 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Figures don't lie.  But liars figure.

I've seen calculations concerning the energy required to pump deep oil to the surface that "proves" deep oil is not usable.  Those calculations don't take into consideration that the deep oil may be under pressure (it normally is) or what would happen if water were injected into that well from above forcing the oil out.

If one only considers EROEI, then it is not economical to grow food because the amount of energy in that food is less than the solar energy used to create it.

If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 19:48 | 2024065 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Why don't you and tmoseley get on theoildrum.com and let them all know what they don't.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 21:37 | 2024143 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Because we're lazy and you're here and easy?  Why do you think?

Theoildrum.com is full of mutual masterbating peak oilers.  LNG on Titan and BP's Gulf of Mexico debacle suggest their theory has problems.

 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 23:24 | 2024263 trav7777
trav7777's picture

ok, no need to answer my earlier question; you ARE a fuckin idiot

how exactly do you think Titan negates peak oil?  Are you retarded?  What's the expected production rate from Titan, you fucking moron?

EROI is about how much energy YOU have to put into an activity versus the return on it, not how much the fucking SUN does.  Clown.

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 00:06 | 2024309 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Ah, the deafening sound of the point whizzing over Trav's head.  The point of hydrocarbons on Titan is that for hydrocarbons to be on Titan, there must be a production mechanism that does not involve degredation of life forms.

But then, you are well known in most corners for ignoring any and all evidence that runs contrary to any thought that happens to flutter into your otherwise empty little head, so I'm sure you will continue to miss the point, and continue to rant about how anyone who even so much as mentions the words "hydrocarbons on Titan" are "fuckin idiots", despite their very valid point.

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 03:26 | 2024404 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

This is only slightly off-topic, but strictly speaking the atmosphere of Titan is composed largely of nitrogen (98%) with about 2% methane (CH4). Where does the LNG come into the picture? Are there oceans of it on the surface or something?

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 14:28 | 2024832 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Googling as a public service: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/01/090130-titan-methane-rai...

"Methane rains on Saturn's moon Titan may have created a new lake about four times the size of Yellowstone National Park, scientists say.

 The new lake covers about 13,000 square miles (34,000 square kilometers). It's part of a system of lakelike features around Titan's south pole."

 

Natural gas is primarily methane.

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 14:52 | 2024881 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

So trav, say I have a 10 mile deep hole in the ground into a big pool of oil.  According to some calculations I've seen, that oil is not usable because it takes more energy to lift it the 10 miles than the energy contained in the oil from burning it.  What if I take some water I'd like to get rid of like sewage and put it in the hole and in so doing the oil rises to the surface of the injected water.  I do this until oil starts running out of my hole.  What is the EROEI?

What's the difference whether energy that is put into an activity is solar provided or otherwise when one is computing EROEI?

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 00:15 | 2024317 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

BP in GOM proves the low hanging fruit thoery.

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 01:27 | 2024362 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Funny how you peak oilers keep claiming that, while continuously ignoring the fact that BP had applied to drill in the SHALLOW waters off of the LA coast, but was DENIED the right to do so.  

According to you logic, we also have peak uranium, because no-one wants to build a nuclear reactor in their back yard.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 23:22 | 2024259 Dantzler
Dantzler's picture

Tar sand oil is not the same as deep oil under pressure. It is important to also consider externalities.

If you had X energy and Y capital at your disposal, which would you rather extract?

Food does not equal energy for purposes of this debate. Obviously the ratio of energy input to food produced is important--as evidenced in the effects of the green revolution (thank you Bosch) allowing petrol inputs vs merely ox input.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 16:11 | 2023887 Charlie
Charlie's picture

Thx for the explanation. I should have googled it, mea culpa.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 16:25 | 2023898 delacroix
delacroix's picture

the saudi's are sure pumping a lot of sea water, into those fields.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:19 | 2023641 KlausK
KlausK's picture

The truth lies for all to see. If you look closely and are not distracted by a ghastly shirt. Stacking up on some Ag at these prices, lost most of it in a really freaky accident involving a rowing boat.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:23 | 2023719 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

It's a much more believable loss if it's due to a margin call.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:21 | 2023643 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

We have already entered the twilight zone of a near-zero return, near-zero growth, biflationary economy. Near zero interest rates, near zero real returns on the 10 year, near zero GDP, stocks flat for the year. Reflation policy no longer works because it's accompanied by deflation in other areas of the economy. Even headline core inflation measures are reading near zero despite solid energy, food and raw material inflation. We are entering the economic fog in the developed world. In the developing world they're entering the fire as today Bahrain and Syria erupt. Tomorrow somewhere else

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:41 | 2023673 el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

Well, Kurt Vonnegut indicated in his novel, Lonely No More, that days with near zero gravity would result in a permanent erection.  Something to look forward to.  No reports though from the astronauts, but there may be a cover-up.  Also speculated that the Chinese would miniaturize themselves to microscopic size, and that the last POTUS would make an unofficial visit to the King of Michigan who was at war with the Duke of Oklahoma.  The POTUS signed over the Louisiana Purchase to the King of Michigan as a gesture of good will.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:09 | 2023695 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

That's all part of an exciting world. Unfortunately our immediate future holds nothing more than the hazy grey fog of endless zeros, where everything cancels. We won't have a crash, we won't have explosive growth, we won't get a revolution. We'll get the wish for stability at any price that was dreamt up in 2008. We'll get what we wished for: zero. But that will cost. 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 17:47 | 2023972 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

But if you can get AIG to insure your over the counter swap agreements, and everything goes just the way your quants. have modeled it; you might make %.0015. No basically, I agree; a very expensive zero.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 15:05 | 2023792 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

S&P 500 on Dec. 31, 1998 = 1229.23.

S&P 500 on Dec. 31, 2010 = 1257.64

S&P 500 on Dec. 30, 2011 = 1257.60

Somehow, this does not quite resemble the 5% annual increase that many financial calculators use to project one's retirement balance X years out.

Then again, as William Banzai's latest creation said; Count not what is lost, but what is left.

 

 

 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 16:32 | 2023907 xela2200
xela2200's picture

And that is not even adjusted for inflation. It is funny how nobody talks about constant dollars anymore. That was mentioned so many times during my MBA program, but the business world it is like a dark secret. Just like opportunity cost, EBITDA or operating cash flow.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constant_dollars

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operating_cash_flow

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:31 | 2023654 gringo28
gringo28's picture

so.......long gold but short eurusd. wow. what a revelation. i love the garble about non-usd commodity producers. what the fuck is that?

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 16:36 | 2023910 xela2200
xela2200's picture

I can understand gold, but the EURO hum... That is up to the printing presses. I think the non-USD producers in their local currency is a play on currency and stock. Look at the value of the Chilean Peso when copper goes down. It is almost instant correlation.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 17:08 | 2023936 mkkby
mkkby's picture

My thoughts exactly, Gringo.  He's missed the correlation ZH reaqders should all know.  EurUsd correlates to stocks, negative correlation to gold.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:32 | 2023656 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

The euro will survive; all the crisis was hype. Now that the ECB hus turned on the moneypresses, all the fear is gone. Italy rate is still around 7%; where is the panic from months ago? Faded. The markets know there's now a LOLR. Happy 'no eurocrisis' 2012.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:39 | 2023670 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Happy 'no eurocrisis' 2012.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////

Too credible to be accepted. The end is nigh, so much better.

Remember, in the US of A, hometown of US citizenism, US citizens are waiting for Jesus to come during their lifetime one generation from another.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:54 | 2023689 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Yeah, I was wondering the same today. Just an hour ago I went to gawk at that 10yr bond yield chart of theirs and I was thinking how it looks just as horrendous as before - if not worse, since a "solution" was sought and reportedly found and doesn't appear to work - and yet the MSM entitles their news with moronic titles as "US shrugs Italy debt worries on recovery in <insert something insignificant>".

Great stuff, they're helping us obtain PMs at lower prices!

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:14 | 2023711 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

They're in the denial phase, but nothing can last very long with 20% unemployment (Spain). As for MSM the mantra to the public has become "don't look too close, you might not like what you see". If you've been following news from Greece you'll understand why. The nightmare of crumbling society and economic infrastructure is well underway. And it's ugly. 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:07 | 2023699 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

The monolog was very enjoyable.  His shirt was checker board brown with green swirls in the middle.

Biderman presented well and says only good things for Gold and commodities, and shorting the fiat currencies.

Major doses of hopium and can kicking in 2011 will persist into 2012.

Get commodities priced in other stronger currencies...it seems logical, but it is definitely a specific market segment to get into these types of investments.  So then need to get TrimTab's avice ?

Besides the "hidden" sales pitch a very simple (and good) overview.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 16:52 | 2023923 DosZap
DosZap's picture

LookingWithAmazement

Now that the ECB hus turned on the moneypresses, all the fear is gone.

Don't you mean since QE has never stopped and now the Fed is supporting the ECB?,dumping frns from US to keep them afloat?.

You forgot that "teeeny" detail..............

 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 17:09 | 2023937 mkkby
mkkby's picture

The crisis was just to pressure ECB into finally printing.  Crisis over, but devaluation is the name of the game for every economy.  Long gold once the dust settles.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:32 | 2023658 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

The Golden Horde was not made of Gold.  Perhaps the bankers are more like Atilla the Hun than goldsmiths.

Horde, hoard, what is the difference?

http://www.educationbug.org/a/hoard-vs-horde.html

Paraphrasing Yakov Smirnof:  What a language!

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 13:41 | 2023674 iamtheeggman wh...
iamtheeggman whooooooooooooo's picture

As a community, we ZeroHedgers seem to have an inordinate amount of trouble with freaky boating accidents, so I thought it wise for the New Year to share some boat safety tips:

http://www.boat-ed.com/?gclid=CIqO06XsrK0CFYFx4AodPS8dsg

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:10 | 2023705 youLilQuantFuker
youLilQuantFuker's picture

Lolz you lil fukers. Nice link.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 17:14 | 2023938 mkkby
mkkby's picture

I don't know what it is, probably an inner ear problem... but I love to hold my gold when I'm boating and I'm terribly, terribly clumsy.  Someone with an under water metal detector could do extremely well, but I also can't seem to remember which lake it was.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 20:06 | 2024076 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

I remember the lake, but Superior is SOOOO big, and I don't have LORAN or GPS....

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 22:18 | 2024214 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

It was over by that one spot where the log was floating...you know, that one place, just a little way off shore.

 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 23:31 | 2024271 trav7777
trav7777's picture

I was on Loch Ness and the monster ate it

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 00:53 | 2024340 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

...and then asked for about tree fiddy.

 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:06 | 2023698 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Our equities were at 0% return in 2011 and the rest of the world was in -10 to -20% negative returns on equities. See table here:

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2011/12/30/2011-a-year-in-review...

Either the U.S. is the equities bomb shelter (like Treasuries) OR the U.S. is the next shoe to drop.

Take your pick.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 15:15 | 2023814 s2man
s2man's picture

As Tyler says, the US is just lagging...

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 17:15 | 2023939 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Safe haven or prettiest turd in the bowl.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:09 | 2023704 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

i've talked to a lot of people and nobody thinks a miracle is going to occur, everyone i talk to thinks things are going to suck because of europe

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:22 | 2023718 devo
devo's picture

I still think Europe will monetize.

Humans choose the easy path over the correct path. It is our nature.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:31 | 2023728 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Draghi did.  He loaned the $600 billion of the $1 trillion he got from the Fed to banks.  They buy debt from sovereigns, flip them to the ECB, done and done.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:32 | 2023729 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

"Will" implies a future act.  Europe is monetizing their debt. 

Europe will continue to monetize.  There is no way they can't monetize -- even if they didn't want to -- with the Fed monetizing about half of U.S. govt. expenditures, without closing their borders to trade completely.

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 03:31 | 2024406 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

We need to get out definitions straight. To my thinking, "monetize" means the unbacked issuance of currency. That is not what the Fed is doing. They are buying Treasury debt. It would only be monetization if they then turned around and burned the T-bills they are buying.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:45 | 2023750 hairball48
hairball48's picture

I still think Europe will monetize.Humans choose the easy path over the correct path. It is our nature.

Right on!

I hope they(ECB) do continue to monetize. The more fiat sloshing around in the world makes my gold and sliver just that much more valuable. 'Cause after the SHTF and dust settles, people will need to trade. Gold and silver will again be  "real money". 

Rev up those Euro presses!!

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 15:25 | 2023822 s2man
s2man's picture

Sorry hairball, devaluing currency does not make your PMs more valuable.  They just maintain your wealth (which ain't a bad thing).

Its like saying "I'll give you 20 Jr burgers instead of 10 regulars". Woohoo!  I've doubled my number of burgers!

I agree on post-SHTF.  We (you, I and other stackers) will have carried our wealth through the crisis into whatever is to follow.  No so for those who store their wealth in fiat currencies.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 15:29 | 2023831 devo
devo's picture

Not exactly because a demand shortage can place a premium on physical. That premium can create wealth instead of just storing value.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 17:54 | 2023981 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

How can it create wealth, unless one measures "wealth" in fiats?  Does a (dollar) "premium" on physical get you more ounces of physical?

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 19:03 | 2024032 devo
devo's picture

The same way it can destroy wealth if nobody wants gold, only in reverse. I'd say purchasing power is a better measure than fiat exchange rate. e.g. if suddenly my 1oz physical gold buys a bmw due to premium/demand (rather than BMW deflation), then I have gained wealth, not just maintained value. There are many ways to look at this, though. That's just how I see it. If you don't, cool.

Gold is up like 400% since 1998. The dollar isn't down 400% in that time. So, I'd say people who bought in 1999 have gained purchasing power.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 20:47 | 2024110 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

How could you have gained wealth if the BMW is worth less?  Do you measure wealth in BMWs or ounces of gold or in fiats?

If gold is money and dollars are only debt instruments, which should be obvious to anyone, the gold isn't "up like 400% since 1998" -- the dollar is down 400% instead.

What is "money" to you -- gold or debt?

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 20:48 | 2024111 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You can measure it in gallons of gas or milk, you can measure it in acres, you can measure it in comparison to a house, etc.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 21:03 | 2024123 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

So you're saying that wealth can be measured in gallons of milk and if there's a demand shortage of milk, then you have more wealth and since wealth's measured in gallons of milk, you now have more milk?

I'm beginning to understand how it's possible that you swallowed the EROEI meme so thoroughly.  

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 23:18 | 2024256 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Try measuring it against your wages.  Can you buy as much now as you could have in 2001?  Not even close, so relative to your wage, an important and very tangible measure, you have created wealth.  EOS.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 14:58 | 2023777 blindman
blindman's picture

http://www.coveringdelta.com/2011/12/31/bankers-to-be-crucified-upon-a-c...
?Bankers to be Crucified upon a Cross of Gold
.
“My own financial operations have been very simple. I started with the policy of buying and selling for Cash, keeping a large fund of cash always on hand, taking full advantage of all discounts, and collecting interest on bank balances. I regard a bank principally as a place in which it is safe and convenient to keep money…The place to finance a manufacturing business is the shop, and not the bank. I would say that a man in business needs to know nothing at all about finance, but he is better off knowing too little than too much, for if he becomes too expert he will get into the way of thinking that he can borrow money instead of earning it and then he will borrow more money to pay back what he has borrowed, and instead of being a business man, he will be a note juggler, trying to keep in the air a regular flock of bonds and notes…We are not against borrowing money and we are not against bankers. We are against trying to make borrowed money take the place of work. We are against the kind of banker who regards a business as a melon to be cut…The time for a business man to borrow money, if ever, is when he does not need it.”

- Henry Ford, My Life and Work (Chapter 11: Money and Goods)

Contrary to popular belief, bankers don’t actually want the borrower to pay back the loan. They want to find that perfect interest rate which will create a steady yet large return on capital in perpetuity, with the balance of the loan remaining psychologically manageable in the mind of the borrower, but by any objective calculation, incapable of being repaid. A company like Apple, with a levered free cash flow most recently of 20 billion dollars, and that had more cash on hand at one point than the US treasury (at $76 billion in the month of August) is JP Morgan’s worst nightmare." ...
But Apple is the exception (and who knows, maybe even Apple isn’t all that tough in today’s Bankocracy) in a world where the owners of capital bow before the issuers of credit as though they were modern day serfs – a slight exaggeration, though not an unwarranted one. And that’s the dirty little secret that shows like “Ed” on MSNBC and “Bill O’Reilly” on Fox News don’t want you to know. If you are part of the “99%”, it isn’t the “1%” you should be mad at, and likewise, if you are part of the “1%” it isn’t the “99%” that you should be afraid of. It isn’t the owners of capital that are your enemy if you are unemployed, and it isn’t the unemployed that are out to get you if you have capital. The unemployed by and large aren’t lazy, and the rich by and large aren’t greedy. It is those privileged few in society who need neither capital nor labor in order to live high on the hog that we should all pay close attention to. In a really perverse way, the enemy of both capital, as well as labor today is credit. Credit, backed by fiat, convention and the force of law. The enemy is a cartel of highly interconnected and criminal banking oligarchs who function in a vacuum of capital, but by the grace of modern central banking, have the godly power to emit bills of credit to whomever they choose, consolidating the country’s wealth in exponential fashion. If they have their way for much longer, there won’t be a penny of capital left in this economy for the capitalists, and at that point the emitters of credit will be free to “press down upon the bleeding brow of labor and capital this crown of thorns.”"

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 15:40 | 2023849 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Until there is a total restructuring of developed market economies to the point where entrepreneurs are encouraged to act and where government spending is 'closer' to government income and not to 'wish fulfillment', there can be no jump-start to growth. Political will remains bereft of desire to do anything but kick the can down the road - and unfortunately, that can is getting bigger and heavier by the minute.

Kicking the can has made many of us a lot of money as PMs outperformed everything else.  Biderman is saying that when the end of kick the can happens, gold bugs get their payout.  

Yes, and no.  Prior to the end, TPTB will no longer have the motivation to hold up stocks, or to stay their hands in PM manipulation.  They will let stocks plummet and ruthlessly drive down gold and silver because if you put yourself in their places, it's good for them, gives them great bargains to pick up, and softens up our resistance to change with good ole fashioned fear so that we will accept any changes in the system they propose.  2012 will be a year in which you see stocks and PMs crash, and then overnight, PMs will rocket to the moon because Ben will take tool #5 out of his toolbox:

  • peg to gold
  • devalue their fiat, all over the world, all at the same time
  • Revalue gold/purchase gold to drive it even higher
  • print like crazy
  • establish price targets

If Biderman is saying gold bugs will get their payout without feeling this pain, he is horribly wrong.  Get ready, the end of the game is coming, and the people who want to shake you out have unlimited fiat and will have nothing to lose at this point.  The beatdown, which will make the previous ones look like child's play, will be psychologically withering to anyone who hasn't anticipated it.  In fact, it may already be underweigh.  If they want to save Obama, the devaluation has to come before May in order to give the economy time to "grow."  Remember the type of "growth" we experienced in 2009?  You haven't seen anything yet.  The Keynesians will point to the stock market ramping like it did after the last devaluation of the currency in 1933, but it will have the same results.  The sugar buzz will wear off after a 75%-100% ramp in equities, but then we will be right back where we started having to devalue and print again.  

Smiddy's prediction for 2012:

Hold tight to your physical.  The mind games are about to begin.  We'll see very low prices in stocks and PMs and then unbelieveably high prices, esp. in PMs.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 15:46 | 2023860 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Summary:  The world's not coming to an end this coming year, but it's going to feel like it.  Somebody has to pay for all this foolishness, and the payers will be lining up for their tatoo identifications by the end of the year.  It's not going to be me, I am holding my PMs through the whole multi year ordeal.

 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 17:28 | 2023952 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Respectfully, I think you've got that wrong.  The plan is just slow devaluation like we've seen the last 30 years. 

If you devalue by 10% a year, in 32 years your purchasing power loses about 94% -- just about right if your goal is to make retirees and welfare queens think they're getting the benefits promised.

No way we get a gold standard ever again.  TPTB like to be able finance their wars and vote buying with nothing by fiat.  That power won't be relinquished.

2012 is the year of nothing.  No crisis.  Just boredom.  A few cruise missles thrown around but no world war.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 20:15 | 2024087 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Yeah, nothing big like earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, flooding and so on to cause anyone to do anything stupid like trying to get the ever scarcer food for ever higher, by force if necessary.

But it would never happen here.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 20:45 | 2024107 xcehn
xcehn's picture

Reminds me of the forester from MW.

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 03:36 | 2024408 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Oh please, people aren't that stupid. No one is going to be happy getting their $2000 a month SS payment if bread costs $100 a loaf. This "inflation makes it easier to service our debt" argument is stupid. It only works if food, energy, housing, and insurance costs don't go up at the same rate as inflation, but they also do.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 15:41 | 2023852 whatswhat1@yahoo.com
whatswhat1@yahoo.com's picture

...another link for Biderman On 2012

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVFwK-z5FSU

 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 16:11 | 2023886 VegasRage
VegasRage's picture

I have to agree, I don't see any mircles dropping from heaven to save us. I'm not a huge Hilary Clinton fan but I did like what she said some time back "Hope is not a strategy" 

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 17:19 | 2023944 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

VR - Billary Clinton did not say that. It was Srah Palin quoting a Dean of Webster Univ in StL.

And of course it's not a strategy!

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 16:29 | 2023906 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Another "dishelveled" bear who got it totally wrong in 2011.

 

My guess is that he's going to be buried by the bulls in 2012.

The Euro Crisis is now over, stocks are probably going to slowly grind up higher and higher.

And there will be many sharp corrections which will quickly recover, just like last year.

It pays to be an optimistic bull most of the time, especially when the market is acting well in the face of bad news.

The time to be a bear is when the economy and news flow is good but the market is acting poorly.

I'm looking forward to another excellent year in the markets.

I'll be scaling out of my dividend stocks and will start rotating into more cyclical and growth names next year.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 19:38 | 2024054 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

You're going to get wiped out. I don't wish it on you, I enjoy reading your posts. You're funny, like a clown. You're here for my amusement.

But based on your stated strategy, you're going to get wiped out.

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 11:10 | 2024213 Dadburnitpa
Dadburnitpa's picture

"The Euro Crisis is now over..."  Consider that statement logged for future reference.  Will look for you in a year to see how it played out.  As the blackjack dealers say in that annoying monotone after they exchange your fiat for chips, "good luck."

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 17:27 | 2023951 The_Emperor
The_Emperor's picture

I would short Euro indeed but if it goes down, it will add pressure to Gold quoted in USD.

www.theimperatore.blogspot.com

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 18:20 | 2024004 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Am I the only one to notice the SNOWFLAKE?

Nice festive touch on a decent vid.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 19:59 | 2024070 Smaug
Smaug's picture

Charles Biderman rules. I met the dude in  Vegas at the money show and he was the best presenter.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 22:14 | 2024178 pine_marten
pine_marten's picture

I bet he picked up some really good dank in frisco.  Someone should tell him his background looks like one of those tsunami vids from Japan though.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 22:43 | 2024233 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Long , ( xau) and short WHAT?  I called 1537 2 weeks ago.   Gold is a great investment.  Where in the Hell is Peter ( 2.5K), Schiff?

 

   Spanking his Irish Carrot, I Say! /sarc on...

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 00:16 | 2024318 Blank Reg
Blank Reg's picture

What's wrong with his shirt. I have one just like it!

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 11:03 | 2024538 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture
Gold, silver, ag commodities, guns, water, this is going to blow sky. The Federal (Un)Balance Sheet – $65 Trillion Financial Hole = $550k Per Household
Or $2.2 million per de-facto taxpayer, take your pick!

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/01/the-federal-unbalance...

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 12:21 | 2024624 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Wearing a shirt that only a mother could love,

He is todays in style Jew of the Month!

http://www.robertgraham.us/shopmen/dressshirts.html

All of todays Jews are wearing the hard to find.. classic lines provided by! None other than Robert Graham!

Until you have a closet filled with Robert Graham shirts you would NEVER!! Wear! you have not lived.

Happy New Year!

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 13:48 | 2024742 natty light
natty light's picture

The German band called. They want their shirt back.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!