Biderman On The Bernanke Put, Black Swans, And The Failure Of 'Perceived Truths'
The underlying premise for much of the management of other-people's-money (OPM) is that if the market drops by an appreciable amount, then Bernanke will step in and save the day. The problem with these 'perceived truths', as Charles Biderman of TrimTabs notes, is that they come-and-go; much like buy-and-hold and China-as-the-engine-of-the-world's-growth. The belief in the Bernanke Put has been around since the end of 2009 and is why the biggest holders of stocks are today mostly fully invested because they really believe that the Fed will remain the buyer of last resort. Unfortunately, as Charles points out, 'market truths always end badly' and in this case what is underlying the belief is that sooner of later the US economy will grow fast enough to allow the Fed to stop priming the pump with newly minted money into stocks; and in this case, he fears, "the headwinds are just too big and that rapid growth will not happen any time soon".