Biderman On Central Banks: "In The End, They Will Get What They Deserve"

Tyler Durden's picture

"We live in interesting times" is the understated introduction to one of Charles Biderman (of TrimTabs) more concerning and stunned rants. With the value of all stocks still around double the 2009 lows yet today's incomes are barely growing, and realistically - with all the headwinds we face - there is no hope for rapid growth in wages & salaries anytime soon, the avuncular analyst feels the need to warn all that "stock prices are due to plunge". Following a little stock market history, Charles notes that while wages and salaries in the US have quadrupled over the past 30 years, the value of all US stocks has risen 18 times. In 1982, stocks relative to wages & salaries were 0.6-to-1 and now the ratio is north of 2.6-to-1. This is explained by an interesting discussion of the excess wage growth over spending argument (once basic human needs are met - and a bigger house) which prompts a brief interlude on wages & salaries as 'the' trim-tab (marginal mover) for stocks. Implicitly then, "How can stock markets be this high if the real economy is barely growing?" - the obvious answer is Central banks are tying to solve all the world's problems via the printing press and as the Bay-Area bad-boy notes, the central banks may be the largest market participant but they are not the only one and in the end "they will get what they deserve" as stocks drop to 2009 lows.

 

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BKbroiler's picture

too much logic. btfd people.

francis_sawyer's picture

 "Deservins got nothin' to do with it"

~ William Munny

Pinto Currency's picture

 

The central banks blew a massive worldwide debt bubble throwing a party for their banker friends.

Now the suckers of last resort are paying the tab.

Still don't see why people don't like paper money and central banking.

(sarc-ozy)

economics9698's picture

Another way of valuing the DJIA that Schiff uses which I like is gold.  2000 was 38 to 1 and 2012 7.75 to 1 or in other words the DJIA in terms of gold is much, much, more expensive.

mjcOH1's picture

In the end, there can be only one.

All sovereign bad debt will roll up to the Fed, which will QE to infinity.

lailapa's picture

Banking system and currencies should return to the people. There should be a discrimination of the currency nature in the two sides of the ocean ...its “security” part and its “bond” part should be separated. There should be a discrimination between what it describes the real value and that “value” that results from the addition of interest and “returns”. What does this mean in practice? There shall be an arrangement in favour of the people as far as the social security funds and the private deposits are conserned, so that currency becomes again a security. All the "rest" may be returned to the bankers and the loan sharks. This is whatever is described as debt and interest may be returned in the form of the well-known balls...

Global Debt Crisis

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.gr/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html

ONO47's picture

"We all have it comin', kid"

~William Munny

El Viejo's picture

Like I been saying its the inverse imbalance between production and consumption that we had in the 70's (high wages and high corp taxes). Today we have low corp taxes and low wages. Read "The Age of Greed" When the rich pay no taxes and govt employees get all the benifits and corps like GE pay no taxes where do you think the taxes come from??? Not all of this disaster can be layed at the feet of irresponsible borrowing. Some of that borrowing was just to keep up. And it's hard for the govt to tax corporations when polticians are in bed with corps. Even govt agencies are in bed with corps. The FDA is in bed with big pharma. The FAA is in bed with the airlines. (no locking cabin doors) The FCC is in bed with big broadcasters.  FOR GOD's SAKE WHO IS LOOKING OUT FOR THE CONSUMERS IN THIS SCREWED UP COUNTRY?? WE HAVE BEEN SOLD DOWN THE RIVER BY BOTH THE POLITICIANS AND CEOs. And people like me who saw it coming and was 100% in Bonds when the crash occurred and other savers will be punished and the guilty will go absolutely free.

NidStyles's picture

The rich pay no taxes? Really? so I guess all of those charts Tyler put out in April were just bullshit then. 

 

Where are you morons coming from?

PeeramidIdeologies's picture

It's relative to the cost of living, and the fact of the more money you make the more advantageous the system is...

Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Its not even about how much money YOU MAKE.  Its about wealth.

There is no tax on wealth, meaning if you were able to avoid paying tax on your INCOME its now wealth, and will not be taxed!  The wealth (+ income) disparity in society is what is killing the economy. 

The billionaires will remain billionaires, even if their fortune was built through deception, trickery, theft, blackmail, extortion.......................

The wealth will be distributed one way or another.  Our choice as members of society is whether it will be the easy (clean) way, or the hard way.

Flying Tiger Comics's picture

It's the unproductive underclass - anyone on any form of government handout - who by definition don't pay tax. Earners pay all the tax in any income tax system. The huge ranks of workshy welfare cases are what is destroying western economies together with unchecked immigration from the shitholes of the third world.

flying dutchmen's picture

lets use a little longer time frame  going from the bottom to current does not seem like a good dataset.  what happens if we go 50-60 years back........

I would say GDP is probably a better indicator but with 70% coming from the service side not sure how accurate that would be.    Bernard Madoff was increasing GDP...

Jolly.Roger's picture

This Biderman is a windbag that states the obvious week-in, week out.

The only remarkable thing about his videos is watching a St. Bernard Dog that is able to talk. 

DeadFred's picture

His condo also has a killer view. Whenever I see Alcatraz in the background I fantasize about how many banksters it could hold.

HarryM's picture

Does Biderman assume the percentage of domestic and foreign holdings remain the same as 1982.

In 1982 foreign investors were not as active in the U.S. Market as they are now.

 

Seems it would be next to impossible to make such a calculation.

Idiocracy's picture

Not quite apples to apples since it is likely that the percentage of ALL US companies' value that is publicly listed is much higher today than in 1982.  I.e. there is a growing preference over time to be public rather than private.  Perhaps a better way to illustrate his point would be to compare the value of the DOW index to total wages in 1982 and today.

SemperFord's picture

Just give us an exact date GOD DAMN IT!!! Anybody can say things will happen in the future, The sun will swallow the earth, ain't going to happen in my lifetime so quit repeating the same f'ing thing! Now for glass of wine...or two.

i love cholas's picture

SemperFord, you're the problem with finance and econ. You can't predict the future

Rainman's picture

yes..they're all different yet the same

TJ00's picture

"The problem is choice" - Neo

SemperFord's picture

You know I was joking about an exact date right???

ATM's picture

Dec 21, 2012 the end of the Age of Aquarius (Debt). 

DeadFred's picture

I on the other hand can prediict the future. It's just too bad I'm wrong so often.

Withdrawn Sanction's picture

BB wishes...

If we make it through the summer, it'll be a miracle.

Doña K's picture

Just like I predicted that things will unravel after the Chinese Olympics, I am making the same prediction. The UK and the rest of the Eurozone, will roll over after the London Olympics.

blueskies123's picture

very funny!   how about Feb 22, 2015

lasvegaspersona's picture

Blackest Thursday October 25, 2012

ya heard it here...

thiscreepingmalaise's picture

no one is making you  come back here daily to read or listen, just piss off and go drink your liver into oblivion!

TrainWreck1's picture

If you are referring to 'the end' as when the sun eventually becomes a red giant and engulfs the Earth, then I agree.

Until then, they are raping on a scale that would make barbarians blush.

CPL's picture

If Barbarians wore 20k italian rags and used a magic CTRL-P keyboard.

LetThemEatRand's picture

Guys, please stop giving the politicians ideas.  The sun turning into a red giant that will swallow the earth is WAY better than guys in caves in Afghanistan threatening people in Iowa.  How many missle systems and Patriots-Against-Red-Giant Acts will we need to endure?

fonzannoon's picture

every asshole is still waiting to gorge on hot garbage financials once Ben comes to the rescue. When he does not come to the rescue they will continue to hide in treasuries. By November every asshole will be convinced we need to raise the debt ceiling and eliminate the automatic spending cuts to ensure the strength of the economic recovery.

HD's picture

Well yea - but it won't matter by then because iPhone 5 will be out and "Dancing with the Stars" will be back on. Problems solved.

Withdrawn Sanction's picture

every asshole is still waiting to gorge on hot garbage financials once Ben comes to the rescue. When he does not come to the rescue...

Consider the possibility that even if he does ride to the "rescue" it will not work.  This seems likely because he will do so only if/when bank assets start tanking (again).  Only this time, such assets are likely to tank w/such ferocity and speed that he will be virtually powerless to stop it in any meaningful way.  This outcome rests on the view of burned me once, shame on you, burn me again, shame on me.  IOW, if things start to tank (Europe, Im looking in your direction), people (and bots) will not be as reluctant to hit the sell button this time around.   Moreover, by the time bearded Ben  recognizes the problem, it'll be well past the point where printing will fix it.

 

This is also why I think the everything-holds-together-until-the-US-election is just a meme at best and more likely, whistling past the graveyard at worst.   In short, it's a crock designed to keep the proles in the game through fall so the insiders can cash out beforehand.

amadeusb4's picture

For some reason, I can't vote you up so here's my acknowlegdement of a +1. Well said.

DeadFred's picture

His post starts with a quote

WestVillageIdiot's picture

In  2008 I was amateurishly buying puts against various stocks.  I got creamed by one piece of bullshit after another.  Today I sitll have some of our 401k money and personal money on the long side.  It is not enough to ruin us, or even close.

I believe as much today as I did in 2008 that th stock market is ridiculously overpriced.  Is Chipotle really a $19 billion company?  Is LULU stock at $63 a good price for yoga pant sellers?  Etc, etc. 

Where was I going with this?  Oh yeah, I'll get there.  Sorry, for the brain lapse.  Although I don't believe in this market I am not actively shorting it and i sleep a hell of a lot better.  The system is broken.  The market is broken.  It is like a dead man that just refuses to lie down.  Protect yourself against his demise but don't try to time when it finally will lie down without understanding just how dangerous that can be.

I still say that full diversification is the best plan.  By that I mean Cash + metals + some stocks (maybe) + some bonds (maybe) + other real assets + a simple life = the best chance to surviive this. 

I would still avoid debt like the plague.  Of course it seems like debt is getting easier and easier to walk away from.  And that, my friends, makes this even scarier.  Good luck and stay thirsty. 

LeisureSmith's picture

+One. Playing around in this market is like playing hackysack with the head of a freshly slain rattlesnake, much to loose little to gain..Better to just leave it be, unless youre a pro or an insider witch leaves me out..Thank Jebus.

Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

"It is like a dead man that just refuses to lie down."

A zombie market!

Must be shot in the head to kill it.

DeadFred's picture

Rule #2, the double tap. The market was shot in 2008 and got up to stumble around again. Pretty creepy

walküre's picture

The buy side is empty. If the buy side was healthy stacked like in 2008, the sellers would have a place to offload their stocks.

Without a buy side, there's no crash or correction. The sellers are holding on and keeping their wealth as "mark to fantasy" as long as it's getting them some recognition, some leverage somewhere.

Until the sellers give up and don't give a shit at what price they liquidate. Right now their liquidity is still healthy, so they don't need to sell massive volumes. Not in the US markets. Banks as holders of equities in Europe have been liquidating and raising cash since 2010.

Allot of folks are in bonds, in cash and in "mark to fantasy" equities.

PERFECT SCENARIO FOR A RESET AND A WEEKEND WIPE OUT OF FICTICIOUS WEALTH, A BANK HOLIDAY

When the bank reopens, the cash assets are worth a fraction of what their assumed worth was prior to the reset.

I can totally see it coming. There's no other choice but to reset the system and wipe out trillions in derivatives and trillions in ficticious assets that are all derived from synthetic accounting or synthetic finance.

After the reset we go back to organic accounting, healthy leverage and RULES.

lasvegaspersona's picture

WVIdiot

no debt is a great plan for deflation...but I see hyperinflation and all the debt I can safely service is my goal. Not kidding, I'd love a laon for some more gold or ...well some  more gold...

Shameful's picture

Eh maybe, but if there is a flood of fiat then really the stocks can go anywhere.  Look at any currency debased market,they all increased in nominal value even if not in real value.  To those shorting the general market, you are wild men to stare into the cold, dead eyes of the Central Banker and say "Not this time pal, you'll blink"

WestVillageIdiot's picture

It is fun to watch the movie Wall Street and hear Hal Holbrooke bitching about all the money floating around, ultimately blaming it on Nixon slamming the gold window shut.  Just think what what his rant would be like nowadays.  It would probably involve an oozi.