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Biderman On Central Banks: "In The End, They Will Get What They Deserve"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"We live in interesting times" is the understated introduction to one of Charles Biderman (of TrimTabs) more concerning and stunned rants. With the value of all stocks still around double the 2009 lows yet today's incomes are barely growing, and realistically - with all the headwinds we face - there is no hope for rapid growth in wages & salaries anytime soon, the avuncular analyst feels the need to warn all that "stock prices are due to plunge". Following a little stock market history, Charles notes that while wages and salaries in the US have quadrupled over the past 30 years, the value of all US stocks has risen 18 times. In 1982, stocks relative to wages & salaries were 0.6-to-1 and now the ratio is north of 2.6-to-1. This is explained by an interesting discussion of the excess wage growth over spending argument (once basic human needs are met - and a bigger house) which prompts a brief interlude on wages & salaries as 'the' trim-tab (marginal mover) for stocks. Implicitly then, "How can stock markets be this high if the real economy is barely growing?" - the obvious answer is Central banks are tying to solve all the world's problems via the printing press and as the Bay-Area bad-boy notes, the central banks may be the largest market participant but they are not the only one and in the end "they will get what they deserve" as stocks drop to 2009 lows.

 

 

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Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:11 | 2519736 spinone
spinone's picture

We'll see.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:58 | 2519855 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

too much logic. btfd people.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:35 | 2519875 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

 "Deservins got nothin' to do with it"

~ William Munny

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:13 | 2520008 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

The central banks blew a massive worldwide debt bubble throwing a party for their banker friends.

Now the suckers of last resort are paying the tab.

Still don't see why people don't like paper money and central banking.

(sarc-ozy)

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:24 | 2520117 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Another way of valuing the DJIA that Schiff uses which I like is gold.  2000 was 38 to 1 and 2012 7.75 to 1 or in other words the DJIA in terms of gold is much, much, more expensive.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 21:56 | 2524182 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

In the end, there can be only one.

All sovereign bad debt will roll up to the Fed, which will QE to infinity.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:30 | 2520231 lailapa
lailapa's picture

Banking system and currencies should return to the people. There should be a discrimination of the currency nature in the two sides of the ocean ...its “security” part and its “bond” part should be separated. There should be a discrimination between what it describes the real value and that “value” that results from the addition of interest and “returns”. What does this mean in practice? There shall be an arrangement in favour of the people as far as the social security funds and the private deposits are conserned, so that currency becomes again a security. All the "rest" may be returned to the bankers and the loan sharks. This is whatever is described as debt and interest may be returned in the form of the well-known balls...

Global Debt Crisis

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.gr/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 07:21 | 2520802 ONO47
ONO47's picture

"We all have it comin', kid"

~William Munny

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:02 | 2519867 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Like I been saying its the inverse imbalance between production and consumption that we had in the 70's (high wages and high corp taxes). Today we have low corp taxes and low wages. Read "The Age of Greed" When the rich pay no taxes and govt employees get all the benifits and corps like GE pay no taxes where do you think the taxes come from??? Not all of this disaster can be layed at the feet of irresponsible borrowing. Some of that borrowing was just to keep up. And it's hard for the govt to tax corporations when polticians are in bed with corps. Even govt agencies are in bed with corps. The FDA is in bed with big pharma. The FAA is in bed with the airlines. (no locking cabin doors) The FCC is in bed with big broadcasters.  FOR GOD's SAKE WHO IS LOOKING OUT FOR THE CONSUMERS IN THIS SCREWED UP COUNTRY?? WE HAVE BEEN SOLD DOWN THE RIVER BY BOTH THE POLITICIANS AND CEOs. And people like me who saw it coming and was 100% in Bonds when the crash occurred and other savers will be punished and the guilty will go absolutely free.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:12 | 2520005 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

The rich pay no taxes? Really? so I guess all of those charts Tyler put out in April were just bullshit then. 

 

Where are you morons coming from?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:10 | 2520097 PeeramidIdeologies
PeeramidIdeologies's picture

It's relative to the cost of living, and the fact of the more money you make the more advantageous the system is...

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 01:14 | 2520509 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Its not even about how much money YOU MAKE.  Its about wealth.

There is no tax on wealth, meaning if you were able to avoid paying tax on your INCOME its now wealth, and will not be taxed!  The wealth (+ income) disparity in society is what is killing the economy. 

The billionaires will remain billionaires, even if their fortune was built through deception, trickery, theft, blackmail, extortion.......................

The wealth will be distributed one way or another.  Our choice as members of society is whether it will be the easy (clean) way, or the hard way.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 04:40 | 2520667 Flying Tiger Comics
Flying Tiger Comics's picture

It's the unproductive underclass - anyone on any form of government handout - who by definition don't pay tax. Earners pay all the tax in any income tax system. The huge ranks of workshy welfare cases are what is destroying western economies together with unchecked immigration from the shitholes of the third world.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:22 | 2520020 flying dutchmen
flying dutchmen's picture

lets use a little longer time frame  going from the bottom to current does not seem like a good dataset.  what happens if we go 50-60 years back........

I would say GDP is probably a better indicator but with 70% coming from the service side not sure how accurate that would be.    Bernard Madoff was increasing GDP...

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:52 | 2520072 Jolly.Roger
Jolly.Roger's picture

This Biderman is a windbag that states the obvious week-in, week out.

The only remarkable thing about his videos is watching a St. Bernard Dog that is able to talk. 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:35 | 2520237 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

His condo also has a killer view. Whenever I see Alcatraz in the background I fantasize about how many banksters it could hold.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:22 | 2520275 HarryM
HarryM's picture

Does Biderman assume the percentage of domestic and foreign holdings remain the same as 1982.

In 1982 foreign investors were not as active in the U.S. Market as they are now.

 

Seems it would be next to impossible to make such a calculation.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 01:42 | 2520558 Idiocracy
Idiocracy's picture

Not quite apples to apples since it is likely that the percentage of ALL US companies' value that is publicly listed is much higher today than in 1982.  I.e. there is a growing preference over time to be public rather than private.  Perhaps a better way to illustrate his point would be to compare the value of the DOW index to total wages in 1982 and today.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:16 | 2519747 SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

Just give us an exact date GOD DAMN IT!!! Anybody can say things will happen in the future, The sun will swallow the earth, ain't going to happen in my lifetime so quit repeating the same f'ing thing! Now for glass of wine...or two.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:18 | 2519754 i love cholas
i love cholas's picture

SemperFord, you're the problem with finance and econ. You can't predict the future

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:21 | 2519768 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Damned indeterminate humans!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:29 | 2519798 Rainman
Rainman's picture

yes..they're all different yet the same

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:45 | 2519825 TJ00
TJ00's picture

"The problem is choice" - Neo

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:39 | 2519816 SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

You know I was joking about an exact date right???

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 07:41 | 2520823 ATM
ATM's picture

Dec 21, 2012 the end of the Age of Aquarius (Debt). 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:39 | 2520241 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I on the other hand can prediict the future. It's just too bad I'm wrong so often.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:40 | 2519818 tgatliff
tgatliff's picture

OK... July 16, 2018

 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:56 | 2519978 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

BB wishes...

If we make it through the summer, it'll be a miracle.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:47 | 2520154 Doña K
Doña K's picture

Just like I predicted that things will unravel after the Chinese Olympics, I am making the same prediction. The UK and the rest of the Eurozone, will roll over after the London Olympics.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:32 | 2520037 blueskies123
blueskies123's picture

very funny!   how about Feb 22, 2015

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:28 | 2520438 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Blackest Thursday October 25, 2012

ya heard it here...

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:52 | 2520159 thiscreepingmalaise
thiscreepingmalaise's picture

no one is making you  come back here daily to read or listen, just piss off and go drink your liver into oblivion!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:16 | 2519748 TrainWreck1
TrainWreck1's picture

If you are referring to 'the end' as when the sun eventually becomes a red giant and engulfs the Earth, then I agree.

Until then, they are raping on a scale that would make barbarians blush.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:16 | 2519896 CPL
CPL's picture

If Barbarians wore 20k italian rags and used a magic CTRL-P keyboard.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:28 | 2520031 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Guys, please stop giving the politicians ideas.  The sun turning into a red giant that will swallow the earth is WAY better than guys in caves in Afghanistan threatening people in Iowa.  How many missle systems and Patriots-Against-Red-Giant Acts will we need to endure?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:17 | 2519752 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

every asshole is still waiting to gorge on hot garbage financials once Ben comes to the rescue. When he does not come to the rescue they will continue to hide in treasuries. By November every asshole will be convinced we need to raise the debt ceiling and eliminate the automatic spending cuts to ensure the strength of the economic recovery.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:50 | 2519840 HD
HD's picture

Well yea - but it won't matter by then because iPhone 5 will be out and "Dancing with the Stars" will be back on. Problems solved.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:09 | 2520003 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

every asshole is still waiting to gorge on hot garbage financials once Ben comes to the rescue. When he does not come to the rescue...

Consider the possibility that even if he does ride to the "rescue" it will not work.  This seems likely because he will do so only if/when bank assets start tanking (again).  Only this time, such assets are likely to tank w/such ferocity and speed that he will be virtually powerless to stop it in any meaningful way.  This outcome rests on the view of burned me once, shame on you, burn me again, shame on me.  IOW, if things start to tank (Europe, Im looking in your direction), people (and bots) will not be as reluctant to hit the sell button this time around.   Moreover, by the time bearded Ben  recognizes the problem, it'll be well past the point where printing will fix it.

 

This is also why I think the everything-holds-together-until-the-US-election is just a meme at best and more likely, whistling past the graveyard at worst.   In short, it's a crock designed to keep the proles in the game through fall so the insiders can cash out beforehand.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:15 | 2520204 amadeusb4
amadeusb4's picture

For some reason, I can't vote you up so here's my acknowlegdement of a +1. Well said.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:47 | 2520249 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

His post starts with a quote

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:19 | 2519756 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

In  2008 I was amateurishly buying puts against various stocks.  I got creamed by one piece of bullshit after another.  Today I sitll have some of our 401k money and personal money on the long side.  It is not enough to ruin us, or even close.

I believe as much today as I did in 2008 that th stock market is ridiculously overpriced.  Is Chipotle really a $19 billion company?  Is LULU stock at $63 a good price for yoga pant sellers?  Etc, etc. 

Where was I going with this?  Oh yeah, I'll get there.  Sorry, for the brain lapse.  Although I don't believe in this market I am not actively shorting it and i sleep a hell of a lot better.  The system is broken.  The market is broken.  It is like a dead man that just refuses to lie down.  Protect yourself against his demise but don't try to time when it finally will lie down without understanding just how dangerous that can be.

I still say that full diversification is the best plan.  By that I mean Cash + metals + some stocks (maybe) + some bonds (maybe) + other real assets + a simple life = the best chance to surviive this. 

I would still avoid debt like the plague.  Of course it seems like debt is getting easier and easier to walk away from.  And that, my friends, makes this even scarier.  Good luck and stay thirsty. 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:50 | 2519834 LeisureSmith
LeisureSmith's picture

+One. Playing around in this market is like playing hackysack with the head of a freshly slain rattlesnake, much to loose little to gain..Better to just leave it be, unless youre a pro or an insider witch leaves me out..Thank Jebus.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:29 | 2519931 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

"It is like a dead man that just refuses to lie down."

A zombie market!

Must be shot in the head to kill it.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:54 | 2520258 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Rule #2, the double tap. The market was shot in 2008 and got up to stumble around again. Pretty creepy

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:26 | 2520224 walküre
walküre's picture

The buy side is empty. If the buy side was healthy stacked like in 2008, the sellers would have a place to offload their stocks.

Without a buy side, there's no crash or correction. The sellers are holding on and keeping their wealth as "mark to fantasy" as long as it's getting them some recognition, some leverage somewhere.

Until the sellers give up and don't give a shit at what price they liquidate. Right now their liquidity is still healthy, so they don't need to sell massive volumes. Not in the US markets. Banks as holders of equities in Europe have been liquidating and raising cash since 2010.

Allot of folks are in bonds, in cash and in "mark to fantasy" equities.

PERFECT SCENARIO FOR A RESET AND A WEEKEND WIPE OUT OF FICTICIOUS WEALTH, A BANK HOLIDAY

When the bank reopens, the cash assets are worth a fraction of what their assumed worth was prior to the reset.

I can totally see it coming. There's no other choice but to reset the system and wipe out trillions in derivatives and trillions in ficticious assets that are all derived from synthetic accounting or synthetic finance.

After the reset we go back to organic accounting, healthy leverage and RULES.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:34 | 2520445 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

WVIdiot

no debt is a great plan for deflation...but I see hyperinflation and all the debt I can safely service is my goal. Not kidding, I'd love a laon for some more gold or ...well some  more gold...

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:20 | 2519766 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Eh maybe, but if there is a flood of fiat then really the stocks can go anywhere.  Look at any currency debased market,they all increased in nominal value even if not in real value.  To those shorting the general market, you are wild men to stare into the cold, dead eyes of the Central Banker and say "Not this time pal, you'll blink"

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:24 | 2519780 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

It is fun to watch the movie Wall Street and hear Hal Holbrooke bitching about all the money floating around, ultimately blaming it on Nixon slamming the gold window shut.  Just think what what his rant would be like nowadays.  It would probably involve an oozi. 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:49 | 2519833 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Ouzo.
Fify

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:31 | 2519937 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Uzi

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:48 | 2519831 Bizaro World
Bizaro World's picture

@ Shameful:  Yes, I am shorting multiple sectors of the market and euro.  I have done better more often than not, but No, I don't sleep well.

BW

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:00 | 2520271 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Sleep is over rated. As a friend's mother was always fond of telling him "You can sleep when you're dead"

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:20 | 2519767 Cupid Stunt
Cupid Stunt's picture

"They will get what they deserve"

Street lamps and rope come to mind.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:48 | 2519830 12ToothAssassin
12ToothAssassin's picture

Cat5 cabling is deceptively strong.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:02 | 2519872 Cupid Stunt
Cupid Stunt's picture

Save the Cat 5 for the quants and HFT guys.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:23 | 2520112 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

CAT5 with a drain wire, for that extra bit of holding power.......

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:23 | 2519777 muppet investor
muppet investor's picture

"In The End, They Will Get What They Deserve"

Right. They will get a 20 million retirement bonus.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:27 | 2519791 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

A house in Westchester, a summer home in The Hamptons and their asses kissedy by the sycophants that permeate CNBC.  That doesn't seem like justice to me.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:32 | 2519941 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

Should be:

They Will Get What They Deserve In The End

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:24 | 2519778 veyron
veyron's picture

Biderman, how's your FB call doing?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:26 | 2519787 Shineola
Shineola's picture

Don't worry!  Everything will be just fine.  Last night at dinner, the wife an I decided that "we" will bail out Europe.  Since our money is as good as the Fed's, it's the lease we can do. 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:30 | 2519801 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Very nice presentation. Plus he likely made some big bucks if he followed his previous advice concerning Europe and he still puts out a modest and good presentation. He is for real.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:31 | 2519802 SolidSnake961
SolidSnake961's picture

why does biderman think all the stocks are fully dependent on the US? corporate earnings are still rising and stocks don't need to hit 2009 levels again thanks to more sales coming from other nations in south america, europe, and asia

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:37 | 2519950 adr
adr's picture

Corporate earnings are not rising, accounting fraud is not being prosecuted. That is 100% the cause of the great 2009-2012 bullshit market.

Corporations like Select Comfort went from losing millions in one quarter to making millions in the next, thanks to some accounting rule changes. But no, I'm sure a company can have a massive turnaround from the brink of bankruptcy to a couple hundred million dollar profit within three months.

Or do you really believe Lulu Lemon sells a billion dollars worth of Yoga pants out of 180 stores and a website? Profits booked on channel stuffing international markets are not real.

I'll tell you a little true story that evolved over the past few years that I became aware of when I was brought in as a business consultant. 

A corporation used a foreign subsidiary to stuff with manufactured product. Because the foreign subsidiary was technically a separate corporation, the parent company booked all of this product as sold on their books. The subsidiary actually owed the parent company the bulk cost of the inventory, but it was ok. The subsidiary would pay the parent company for the inventory once it was sold. The product was very hot, so it looked like there would be no problem with the scam. In fact the product was so hot, they parent company forced the foreign subsidiary to take all of the product that was no longer selling in the home market.

See the parent company used the "profit" as collateral to spend wildly, expecting the foreign subsidiary to pay for all of this with its future profit. During the next few years, the company's product was knocked off in the foreign market by cheap competitors, forcing them to lower the wholesale prices to remain competitive. The overstock of inventory forced the foreign office to liquidate product. However, this caused the actual profit of the goods sold to fall below the booked profit of the parent corporation, sending the entire corporation straight into bankruptcy.

THAT IS ACTUALLY HOW PUBLICLY TRADED CORPORATIONS ACTUALLY WORK. THEY ARE ALL SCAMS.

Answer this question:

How can a product that brings in less than 1/4 of 1% of a retail corporation's gross revenue, be the #1 product at checkout? A product that sells the most units per week, by a large margin, with an average transaction cost of $35. The actual reported average transaction of this retailer is $42, so the previously mentioned product is very close to the overall average transaction. The retailer claims $5 billion in gross sales, but the #1 product that actually leaves the store in customers hands, brings in $7 million in gross sales. Somethin ain't right.

Or this one:

You speak with a retail store manager that tells you the day's sales totaled $650. Actually a pretty good day considering the normal daily average is closer to $500. This manager actually tells you that averaged for the year, sales are around $600 a day. You do a quick calculation, even though the store isn't open 365 days, and you come up with near $220,000. You are also told that this store is one of the top in the district, meaning the average store take is probably less. However, you just use $220k for the average store. There are 275 stores across the country, so that is basically $60 million in gross revenue. How is it possible for this publicly traded retail corporation to claim sales of $240 million in gross revenue? Even if you triple the reported sales you got from the store manager, you don't come close. A simple calculation gives you a requirement of $2400 per day to hit claimed revenue. Which means every time daily revenue falls below that level, it must be made up on a concurrent day.

 

The only conclusion that can be made is that the claimed gross revenue of the corporations outlined here is a total blatant lie. A figment of an accountant's imagination.

 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:29 | 2520035 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Great lesson on not trusting the "e" in p/e ......!! Accountants have morphed into becoming infantry for the pigmen.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:15 | 2520104 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Your channel stuffing story is right out of the TBTF shenanigans.  Amazing how talk of all of that just kind of disappeared.  Headlines for a cycle or two and then just went away. 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:57 | 2520163 SolidSnake961
SolidSnake961's picture

I can imagine retail and some corporations doing that but the majority of the blue chips like ibm, mcd, etc..?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:15 | 2520291 Flying Tiger Comics
Flying Tiger Comics's picture

You can use Hitler's armies of 1945, motherboards for PCs or Disney / Warner comicbooks- all use the same form of accountancy where product ships (or armies march) on paper with no relation to reality. Orders are used to base real world analysis rather than looking out the window at the empty parking lot. Motherboards and comicbooks NEVER meet or exceed claimed shipments nor do they match earnings predictions. Always lower even when there is a "hit series" or "in demand motherboard".

There is an element of cannibalism too. When front office needs some physical props the goods are stripped out of other customer's orders or out of the company's own products in their offices to create the props needed for the photo op.

 

Can't work in the long term but the plan is always to let a new crisis overtake the old one and erase the record.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:16 | 2520206 walküre
walküre's picture

Pretty good analysis of what's going on. It bought them a couple years at the most. They were all staring into the abyss in the fall of 2008 and they all got "creative" in their accounting from that point forward.

So now we're at a point where retail has dropped buying equities alltogether except for the big boyz. They're still holding some pretty big bags but have nobody to sell to.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:28 | 2520322 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Biderman's presentation made me ponder something. He claims the market rose 4X because the increase in wages was above the Food + House level giving more for stocks. Maybe some of the mindless ramping is based in the shift of weath from 99 to the 1%. The 1%ers are the ones who own the most stock and they are getting fatter. There's no writ-in-stone law about what P/E level the market should be and the conventions are largely based on outdated comparisons to when your money could actually draw interest while invested somewhere. Maybe a P/E of 1000 would be better than negative bond rates, at least if you're brainwashed enough to forget that stocks do sometimes go down in value.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:33 | 2519807 Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

Stocks go up, stocks go down. I just need to know what stocks and when, in advance.  Mmkay?  Thanks!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:08 | 2519887 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

All you really need is RobotTrader & a DeLorean & you'll be on your way...

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:33 | 2519808 Racer
Racer's picture

Karl Marx

"What the bourgeoisie produces...is its own gravediggers"

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:36 | 2519812 potlatch
potlatch's picture

If Karl had stuck to writing books and not consorting with louche industrialists' sons, this all would have just been incorporated into the Standard Model.  But nooooooooooo.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:35 | 2519809 potlatch
potlatch's picture

We are all Robert Poppo now

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:38 | 2519814 Pretorian
Pretorian's picture

He is about to pound 550lb gorila.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:38 | 2519815 youngman
youngman's picture

They will get what they deserve....that will be the companies...but the individuals will have all the goodies to survive...they will just leave us the carcas....and the bill...

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:42 | 2519823 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

I'd be interested in knowing the salary/income growth for the top 10% only, then compare that to market growth.  These are the only investors.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:50 | 2519841 BigT4451
BigT4451's picture

RE: OP

1)  Does it make sense to compare US (only) wage growth to the stock prices of multi-national corporations during a period of mass globalization?

      1b)  How does global wage growth compare to global P/E ratios

      2b)  Is he looking a nominal wage growth or real wage growth, same question for stock values

2)  How have P/E ratios faired historically?  Does this coincide with your argument?

      2a)  You compared today's prices to 2009 prices.  Do 2009 prices represent a good historical point of reference in terms of Price to Earnings multiples?

      2b)  Is there something inherently wrong with P/E as to disregard it?

 

Thanks

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:51 | 2519842 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Biderman:" wealth has grown over the past thirty years"

Actually debt has grown over the last thirty years and so has the illusion of wealth.

Debt does not equal wealth.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:41 | 2520242 walküre
walküre's picture

Exactly. It's ficticious wealth based on synthetic finance and synthetic accounting. That brought synthetic growth with purchasing power that was nowhere realistic.

We're at the end of the cycle where the ponzi crumbles and the excesses become visible. We have billionaires in this world with synthetic wealth that would have made Kings, Queens and other Aristocrats throughout history blush and jealous. At least the wealth of Kings, Queens and other Aristocrats was backed by something (uhm gold?).

The wealth of the modern day elite is backed by nothing. It's ficticious and synthetic. It's based on "mark to fantasy" accounting BUT IT IS VERY DESTRUCTIVE AND HIGHLY TOXIC!

We talk about "toxic assets" allot and perception is that we're talking about "toxic debt". Debt is money. Perverted money creation based on debt has rendered all assets and all wealth as toxic.

The toxic asset of a hedge fund dealing in the billions of ficticious currency can destroy nations by the stroke of key, not even the stroke of a pen. Millions of people are affected because a small minority has crowned themselves as the super wealthy with their mandate that we must accept their ficticious wealth as real wealth.

Ficticious wealth based on mark to fantasy and synthetic accounting are financial weapons of mass destruction.

The reset must occur and it must happen fast and furious before anymore damage can be inflicted on the people of Greece or Spain for example. The elite must be dethroned and taken down a notch or two. We understand their scam, we are hurting from it and we will expose it to anyone who will listen. Their scam is hurting us. You can be with them, keep enabling them, serve them or you can decide to be against them and stop the anguish.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:58 | 2519857 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

If stocks drop to 2009 lows, the entire economy gets shoved head first into an airport snow blower running full tilt. Nthing left but red snow and cat food when it gets shit out the other end. All of us included. Bankrupt them now. And, nationalize their scraps of equity, and banish them forever from human kind. At least government can be hired and fired. Or, hung out to dry if they screw up in the brave new world coming soon to a neighborhood near you.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:59 | 2519858 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Sorry Charlie - I understand where you are going - but there is a fatal flaw in your math.

In 1982, the vast majority of US listed company earnings came from US wages & salaries.  $1.0 trillion of mkt cap / $1.6 trillion of wages & salaries = 0.625x.

Today 46.3% of S&P 500 revenues come from foriegn countries and more then 50% of earnings come from foriegn operations.

If we say that multiples were artificially low in 1982 given the global growth in wages and salaries we witnessed in hindsight and due to interest rates being far above normal, then we could take todays wages & salaries at a 1.0x multiple to get an implied market cap of $6.8 trillion.  If we gross that up for a 60/40 foriegn/domestic earnings split - you'd get $17 trillion of market cap.

Look, I think share prices are too high also.  But I think you have to be realistic about the math.  IF you go around calling for a 75% collapse in stock prices, no one will take you seriously.

Here is some alternative math to get you to the same point.

Today  - corporate earnings as a % of GDP are about 8.5%.  Historically that's averaged closer to 6%.  If we take $100 of forward SPX earnings and adjust to a historical level relative to GDP you get roughly $70.  Funnily enough, that ties to Goldman's estimate of SPX earnings in a normal recession.  At the historical forward multiple of 13x-15x you get 910-1,050.

Likewise, if you look at corporate profits to GDP relative to the forward 5 year growth in corporate profits, you will see that when corporate earnings as a % of GDP reaches this level, historically corporate earnings growth has been 0% over the next 5 years.  If we solve for a like multiple 5 years out using 0% corporate earnings growth vs the historical norm of 12%-15% then a historical forward multiple of 13x-15x and 12%-15% earnings growth would indicate a multiple of 7.0x is appropreiate for 0% forward earnings growth.

I think its quite possible that we see 900-1,000 on the SPX.  I think below that it becomes a strong buy.  If we get back down to 700 I'm in with both fists.  If you insist on holding out for 350 you are going to be in cash for the rest of your life.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:24 | 2519914 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Roadkill, I was thinking the same thing when I heard Charles.   Factor in liquidity from international players looking to park money in the largest market on the planet and the discounting of a currency event and multiples don't look as out of whack as Charles thinks

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:20 | 2520017 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

Actually, the liquidity issue is a key factor and not just international liquidity.  Since the mid 1990s in the US, debt has grown at nearly 9% per year, while incomes (or real GDP, take your pick) have been growing roughly 3% a year.  Where'd that excess cash/credit go?  Assets of all stripes (internet stocks in teh 1990s, houses and bank stocks in the 2000s, and now bonds).  Excess credit creation, in other words, has been the main driver of stocks and other asset classes.  And now, BB cant get credit up w/a crane and so prices will not stay elevated....and they shouldn't.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:08 | 2519884 par4
par4's picture

In the real world wages have been stagnant for 40 years. Falsus in unum Falsus in Omnibus.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:30 | 2519933 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Fidem clam scit  ;)

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:25 | 2520119 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Ixnay on the agesway.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:46 | 2520248 Rockfish
Rockfish's picture

Quidquid Latine dictum sit altum videtur

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:12 | 2519888 razorthin
razorthin's picture

...

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:55 | 2519909 itstippy
itstippy's picture

"Charles notes that while wages and salaries in the US have quadrupled over the past 30 years, the value of all US stocks has risen 18 times."

30 years ago there were still a lot of independent businesses on my Main Street: Grubers Dairy, Murphy's Lumber Yard, Fletcher Shoes, Fischer Drugs, Vodak TV & Stereo, Fred's Garage, Herman's Supper Club, etc.  Those independent businesses have been pushed out by big corporations: Dean Foods, Home Depot, Payless Shoes, Walgreens, Best Buy, Midas Muffler, Appleby's, etc.

Corporations rule the Main Street economy today.   Corporations are listed on the NYSE.  No wonder US stocks have risen faster than US wages; wages that used to go to independent businesses now go to corporations, making them very profitable.

I'm old.  I remember the old Main Street economy.  It was more personal and service-oriented than Big Box.  It was also more expensive, had limited selection, and the fuckers were only open from 9:00-5:00.     

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:24 | 2519913 Zola
Zola's picture

Hmm Roadkill, do you know that earnings FALL in a recession and that bear market major lows are single digit multiples of REALIZED earnings not forwards EPS ? Oh and almost forgot that nasty DIV yield...

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:28 | 2519928 chump666
chump666's picture

Biderman keeps it real.

A ZH poster put on the old Rollover clip...I have that running on loop.  Bond market implosion is closer than we think

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:30 | 2519934 FiatFobia
FiatFobia's picture

Now I know where the name Trim Tabs comes from.

 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:31 | 2519938 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

This all continues to be allowed because joe average is lame and lazy. People need to stand up against the banksters and politicians that continue to put themselves first and foremost. What happened to mass protests by American citizens - not merely hundreds but tens of thousands protesting to the point where TPTB must listen and act. We are all guilty of a certain amount of inertia to act - we come on zh and talk, interact, argue, which is great but there needs to be much more done by many. If the masses continue to do nothing then they will get exactly what is coming from TPTB and they will treat us all like ants.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:23 | 2520309 jelyfish
jelyfish's picture

XTC -  Making Plans for Nigel

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:31 | 2519939 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I wonder how the percentages would change if salaries and wages included government transfer payments both then and now? Or what would the percentages be like if we excluded government salaries?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:33 | 2519943 mick68
mick68's picture

Seems that the retail investor doesn't sway the market like he used to, his best weapon is his 401K, RRSP, and pension fund, all controlled by a hedge fund manager who is probably a cocaine addict and frequenter of hookers.

The FED and hedge fund managers hold more sway then the entire retail investor market combined, so I'm sure I'm not alone in wanting to see the FED, hedge fund managers, and corporate America get clobbered. If there is a God, I wish he would get tired of watching evil people live like kings while good people get beat up every day of their lives.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:33 | 2519944 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

A bill is going to a hearing in the Senate capping the Fed's ability to do QE3. I will post on it tonight.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:34 | 2519945 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

A bill is going to a hearing in the Senate capping the Fed's ability to do QE3. I will post on it tonight.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:41 | 2519955 longshortflat
longshortflat's picture

Not to be picky, but The market (Dow Jones)  first went to 1067 in Jan 1973. See table. '

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closing_milestones_of_the_Dow_Jones_Industr...

 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:45 | 2519963 blueridgeviews
blueridgeviews's picture

Mr. Biderman, I've suspected the Fed buying stocks since the market corrected in 2009. 2 years and nothing but higer highs and higer lows.

My suspicion was and is that the Fed is somehow giving money to the large fuinancial institutions and they are buying stocks and commodities to inflate the price.

My question to you is HOW are they doing it without guys like you figuring it out?

Thank you.

P.S. I look for your videos every day and appreciate you sharing your vast knowlledge.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:46 | 2520247 walküre
walküre's picture

the Fed is somehow giving money to the large fuinancial institutions

Banks with access to the Fed discount window could borrow as much as they needed to do whatever they please, no questions asked.

Primary dealers were buying US paper and flipping straight back to the Fed with a profit.

That's how they rolled, baby. That's how they rolled ..,

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:52 | 2519969 cjhoward71
cjhoward71's picture

Why does anyone listen to this douche who tried to laugh Peter Schiff off a show.  He may be a brilliant manager, but he's a wannabe famous commentator.  No one outside of this Ra Ra Ron Paul web site even knows who he is.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:20 | 2520106 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Peter Schiff is a wannabe hedge fund manager...

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 07:21 | 2520800 cjhoward71
cjhoward71's picture

Yeah, and you called the collapse even before Schiff right.  Schiff was the only one who was right and everyone including Biderman tried to make him look like a clown.  Stick to your Art Laffer newsletter you fucking douche.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:54 | 2519974 ATG
ATG's picture

Who's confused?

Someone tell Charlie the Dow first crossed 1000 in 1973. after hitting 995 in 1966, nominal household net worth is at 1994 levels, and wages and salaries adjusted for silver dollars lost -92% of their value:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-11/fed-says-family-wealth-plunged-38-8-in-2007-2010-on-home-values.html

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:57 | 2519980 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Nothing would give me more joy than to see central bankers "get what they deserve".

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:07 | 2519998 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

The only stock worth buying today is LIVESTOCK.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:58 | 2520067 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Yeah, I saw a book today, "How to Make Money In Stocks" at Goodwill.  I laughed, and thought, "don't buy stocks, buy silver instead, and it'll be just like making money in stocks, since you saved money by NOT buying them. What a casino.  I get a good laugh when I see these guys on here talking about how they're long or short or whatever...they still haven't figured out the system is rigged.  You can't beat a computer.  "How to make $1,000,000 at the Casino".  "Start with $2,000,000."

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:17 | 2520014 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

"as stocks drop to 2009 lows."..priced in physical gold.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:23 | 2520021 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

while i agree with the point of the piece, i would say today's market multiple of wages is not completely comparable due to globalization of US companies.  Think of a company like CAT.  I'm sure they have a much higher percentage of revenue from foreign business.  So the stock market is not simply built with companies only selling to the US.  This does not negate Biderman at all, as the direction is correct, but the magnitude might not be as great.   I still agree a revist of 2009 lows is the probably outcome. Still excellent non-standard metrics!  

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:38 | 2520045 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Price the market in gold if you want to see what is truly happening. The DOW based on dollars is essentially meaningless.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:42 | 2520051 rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

I like Biderman's approach here. I had a sucessful career trading before I retired and quit trading completely a few years ago. Most of the way I approached my analysis of stocks was using ratios. I think he is presenting a view that is very worthwhile because no one else is doing the same thing. Most are shills.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:06 | 2520090 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

How is this analysis any different than the dot com bubble of number of eyeballs per page?  Nice to know information but don't trade on it.  Bears are getting desparate to get something going....

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:06 | 2520091 DavidC
DavidC's picture

I like Charles Biderman.

DavidC

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:21 | 2520108 pmm009
pmm009's picture

I agree the ratio analysis is great, but we are essentially getting the same rants over and over without any insightful analysis.  ES is making huge short term swings in low volume markets.  Every time the market takes a quick drop toward the 200 day moving average, some FED official comes out and shouts QE, QE.. and some 25 year old with an english degree writes an article via Bloomberg, Reuters or AP, like the ASIAN MARKETS UP, ECB TO GUARANTEE DEPOSITS...crap.  Looking at ratios, what were the Balance sheets of GS, JPM, MS & BAC/MRL in 1982.  Any one of thes firms could shift their portfolios toward equities by less than a percent on any given day and create the types of moves we are seeing.   Are program HFT traders really being swayed by what one FED governor says?  Someone needs to spend more time illuminating market structure, because the ability to manipulate is so easy. 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:31 | 2520125 couponclipper
couponclipper's picture

There are so many good articles on this website, especially the insights into credit markets that aren't easily gotten elsewhere, that it's unfortunate that so many other intellectually flawed articles are given such prominence. The above article is a prime example. Of course the market is up more then wages, 30 years ago, wages were what you got for most workers, now wages are part of a package that often includes 401k matches, healthcare plans,paid maternity leave, subsidized insurances for braces, etc. etc. In other words, the total compensation has risen much more then wages alone. The article also ignores how much the world has changed, and how much our country has grown. Thirty years ago, MacDonalds didn't have 15,000 locations outside this country, United Technologies wasn't selling jet engines to emirates Airlines, and there weren't over 300 million Americans buying products from listed companies. I'm somewhat reluctant to intercede in the gloom and doom group , but I'd like to see a basic commen sense screening of articles from contributors. The above article is akin to saying 'We've created 4 million new jobs.' 

 

 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:50 | 2520158 JuicedGamma
JuicedGamma's picture

Great analysis. Also interest rates ranged from 11 to 15% during the early 80s; now RATES are pegged at zero.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:12 | 2520289 aus_punter
aus_punter's picture

I agree.  Most people can appreciate his arguments and even sympathise with them on a simple level but the fact remains, as an analyst, he has been largely incorrect in his predictions.

 

People like Biderman, Bob Janjuah, Raoul etc have their place in infotainment but they shouldn't be celebrated for being logical but consistently wrong.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:04 | 2520134 Element
Element's picture

OT:

Nuclear subs use fissile material in their reactors that is about 95% pure.  Weapon-grades are in the range 87.5 to 92.5% pure. 

The Iranian navy just said it is beginning design on a class of nuclear subs. This is a defacto statement that Iran is intending to produce fuel for such a class of submarine's reactor that is enriched to above weapon grade.

-- 

Iran to build nuclear submarine

Published: 12 June, 2012, 18:25
Edited: 13 June, 2012, 02:43

Tehran is in the “initial phase” of designing nuclear-powered submarines, says a senior Iranian Navy commander.

­"Initial steps to design and build nuclear submarine propulsion systems have begun," Admiral Abbas Zamini, the technical deputy Navy Chief, told semi-official Fars news agency on Tuesday.

A nuclear-powered submarine would allow “very long-distance operations."

"All countries have the right to use peaceful nuclear technology, including for the propulsion system of its vessels," added the admiral.

Only a handful of nations can boast their own technology to make nuclear-powered submarines. These include the US, the UK, Russia, France and China. India is also reportedly building one. [BTW: all nuclear powers too]

Tuesday’s announcement comes amidst preparation for another round of international talks over Tehran's disputed nuclear activities. The P5+1 group (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council: China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US – plus Germany) is set to see Iranian representatives on June 18-19 in Moscow.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is set to step down later this year, and analysts are beginning to speculate on how this could influence the ongoing talks on the Iranian nuclear issue. In this regard, Reza Marashi, a research director at the National Iranian American Council, notes that Ahmadinejad has lost some of the influence he had from the beginning through the middle of his presidency, and that much of this power has now been centralized and placed on Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khomeini.

“He is a politician that won’t go down without a fight, but right now he seems to be more on the quiet end – and we’ll see what happens there – but I don’t see a scenario popping up where he can outright spoil the talks, because the supreme leader is putting his stamp on this process going forward,” Marashi told RT.

Western powers fear Tehran is building nuclear weapons, while the Islamic Republic is firm that its nuclear program is purely civil and the atomic research being conducted is for the benefit of health care and energy.

[umm ... ok ... so how does a Naval reactor in a combat sub fcome under the umbrella of a civil program? ... obviously they've just announced they're developing a military nuclear program, also ... which is also their sovereign right ...]

http://www.rt.com/news/iran-build-nuclear-submarine-638/

--

Once you do that you must be assumed to be a nuclear power in any strategic calculus. 

Looks like the Israeli's crowing a coulpe of weeks back about their new diesel-electric German sub fleet (six eventually) is getting some blow-back.  Two can play that game, not to mention that the Iranians already have a capable diesel-electric Kilo sub fleet.  I guess they want something that doesn't have to go through Suez.

Now; would this be happening at all, if Israel and the US were not continuously making blood-curdling threats about attacking Iran, and saying no option is off the table?

-- 

Deal or no deal, Iran may be bombed – Israeli minister

Published: 23 May, 2012, 13:47

A military strike against Iranian facilities is not out of the question, even though Tehran has reached agreement on a probe with the UN’s nuclear watchdog, says Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak. ... The minister told Army Radio that "a nuclear Iran is intolerable and no options should be taken off the table," referring to the use of force.

http://www.rt.com/news/iran-attack-israel-barak-962/

--

So who's the warmonger?

Who here is stating an intent to wipe out a country? 

And this little diplomatic trinket from the peace makers:

--

Iranian ultimatum: Yield now or be attacked by year’s end

Published: 14 March, 2012, 11:06
Edited: 15 March, 2012, 15:40

The US wants Russia to deliver a message to Iran: Tehran has one last chance for talks. If it is wasted, an attack will happen in a matter of months, according to Russian diplomatic sources.

The threat was voiced by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during a meeting with her Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in New York on Monday, a diplomatic insider told Kommersant daily.

“The invasion will happen before year’s end. The Israelis are de facto blackmailing Obama. They’ve put him in this interesting position – either he supports the war or loses the support of the Jewish lobby,” the diplomat told the Russian newspaper.

http://www.rt.com/news/iran-last-chance-war-517/

--

 

They seem to forget the tens of thousands of torpedos, sea mines, and anti-ship missiles, and that their use will cause an escalation in the gulf that will most likely in retrospect be called WWIII ... if we get that far.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:05 | 2520172 potlatch
potlatch's picture

Learn to speculate like the pros son.  Allow me.

 

Why are you assuming, according to what geopolitical perspecxtive are you assuming, the current Iranian state has a right to exist?

 

Just asking, because that's yer position, and I can manipulatte that piece of market assumption up and down this county line.

 

 

US sez: that's stolen property fuck yeah

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:39 | 2520228 Element
Element's picture

"Son"?  ... why talk like a high-handed twat? do people respond favourably, does it make you more credible and your argument more repleat with valid points?

--

I'll make it simple for you. 

Iran's "right to exist" is every bit as valid as the USA's, or any citizen within that state. 

Iran and it people, and its historic fore-runner, Persia, have been around for thousands of years. 

And will be around as a major discrete political entity for some time to come.

Why would I need to "assume" a "geopolitical perspective" for recognising this in any way shape or form?

On the other hand;

The USA has not been around long at all.  And it has stolen the land via violent invasive force and beastly oppressions and butchery, taken it from pre-existing indigenous peoples -- that were Indian 'Nations'.

Thus USA is far more likely to fall under the category of an illegitimate state with no clear right to exist within the lands it presently occupies.

Plus Iran can shutdown a large portion of global oil supply and trigger a Naval crisis that would lead to WWIII, (and Venezuela may support the Iranian fight against relentless Yanky war-mongering SOBs, so cut its oil exports to certain buyers if this occurs, and is likewise allied to Russia and to Iran).

You may not like it but material realities are not within your head space, they are independent of your internal geopolitical theorising and abstractionism.

 

Manipulate that.

--

EDIT:

"... US sez: that's stolen property fuck yeah ..."

 

You've got to be kidding me ... that's just plain bad trolling ... I see you're also noob to zh ... we're aquainted with a much higher-class of troll around these parts.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:51 | 2520253 walküre
walküre's picture

Good rebuttal but wasted on the guy.

Is Iran crazier than the US? History will show.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:57 | 2520264 Element
Element's picture

Dunno, but US and Israel seem determined (Japan-style) to force Iran's hand.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 01:38 | 2520548 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

The claim to be pursuing nuclear subs with non-nuclear torpedoes is quite clever.  They can enrich their fissile material to bomb grade claiming a reactor-fuel purpose which does not involve nuclear bomb ambitions.  Of course the ruse will never fly.  Iran can be taken out in a few days if it is done within the year.  I don't want a new hegemon in the middle east.  Do you? Forget Israel.  The continuity of the global industrial engine is at stake, and this is a value the Mullahs do not share with me.  They couldn't care less about industrial continuity.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 10:11 | 2521393 Element
Element's picture

Take a look at google maps satellite images of Iran, it is urbanised and highly industrialised too.  As is the other side of the Persian Gulf.  They know they're screwed without industrial and urban continuity. 

Hegemons are a fact of life, so is war and peace.  What I think is important is to minimise this to the extent that major wars don't erupt upon false grounds and engineered pretexts, by degenerate powers deciding they are far more important than all others.  

This was the role the UN was supposed to provide but this is a terribly flawed and failing organisation.  This is because the UN from the outset was populated by idealists who never imagined such an appalling scourge of war-mongering corruption within the European zionist-affiliated cabal, of today's Allied NATO powers.

These powers and their tactics don't fit with the idealised 'manageable' notions, structures and processes originally envisioned.  It is an obsolete organ.  That is what it really is.  How do you deal with powers that are absolutely determined to corrupt and undermine the UN, and to go unilateral anyway, when it becomes thus dysfunctional?

Where are the grown ups at that point?

The UN is populated by captured and corrupted yes-men today.

The process of maintaining peace and stability is being deliberately undone by the greatest of all hegemons.

And it most definitely could not give a rats arse about the mullahs, who are their actual neighbours (in ballistic missile terms), so why should we not get the same attitudes and blow-back in return?

Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.

How many fucking times does that have to be said?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:08 | 2520182 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

I really think all of this won't matter very soon: http://halfpasthuman.com/summertime.html

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:58 | 2520266 TradingTroll
TradingTroll's picture

HPH (Cliff's) track recored sucks

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:17 | 2520209 pmm009
pmm009's picture

What is your point?  Iran is an unstable country as proven by the recent civil uprisings.  It is not OK for them to have or develop advanced nuclear weapons and delivery systems.  Period.  Most people in Iran, no matter what their internal politics, believe other wise, however, and this will be a major issue going forward.  Under the the Iranian thinking, Hitler had a right to nuclear weapons and so did Stalin.  Go read the Rumsfeld Report and then decide what side of the geopolitical fence you are on.  You can always move, there are plenty of cheap direct flights now.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:31 | 2520232 janus
janus's picture

the united states of america is the only nation in world history to deploy nuclear weapons.

how does that fit with your theory?

i guess, since they were just japaneese women and children, it don't mattah. 

NO NATION should be 'ALLOWED' to posses nuclear weapons -- iran is no exception, nor is israel.

pish-posh,

janus

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:56 | 2520262 walküre
walküre's picture

Attack Iran and you have a people and a nation that are galvanized to fight back no matter what the outcome may be. Not only that, the Iranians abroad and other Shia muslims will bring destruction to Europe and America on a scale we haven't seen in this country at least.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:37 | 2520397 Element
Element's picture

 

"What is your point?  Iran is an unstable country as proven by the recent civil uprisings.  It is not OK for them to have or develop advanced nuclear weapons and delivery systems.  Period.  Most people in Iran, no matter what their internal politics, believe other wise, however, and this will be a major issue going forward.  Under the the Iranian thinking, Hitler had a right to nuclear weapons and so did Stalin.  Go read the Rumsfeld Report and then decide what side of the geopolitical fence you are on.  You can always move, there are plenty of cheap direct flights now." - pmm009

--

"What is the point?" ... "Civil uprisings"? ...eh?

Is the following what you mean?  Does something worse than this occur in Iran?  I bet anything the Iranians are doing is a pale-shadow of what Washington and Jerusalem are doing to their own people.

 

Shots fired at "Occupy Oakland" protest -Live coverage
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=dwbfK9PFWHM

OWS: Occupy Oakland Violence - Police Shoot Veteran In The Face - Protesters In War Zone
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=HequVgLRPUo

Violent OWS arrests video: RT footage of cops in action
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=lVStSG2Lx-k

Free Palestine: Zionist Jews killing Orthodox Jews
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=SeNB0v8SXUA

Orthodox Jews Protest Israeli Police Brutality  (Parts 1 2 & 3)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=zh85l5lb9Ac
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=tyHoZb3WlU8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=JqCc4de9S-k

Watch how israeli settlers treat the palestinian children (part 1 ... you can look up the rest ... it's endless)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=PynvDVPWkSA

--

So can we take the nukes off Washington and Israel too then?  It's an incredibly flaccid and very stupid argument for the moral high-ground, as the alternative to real bullies being the relative bastions of stability and civil state decency.

Base my whole life and future around a neocon "Rumsfeld Report"? ...wtf? ... and a "geopolitical fence"? ... some divide defined by fucking neocons?!!

To define "us" against "them", only so we can pretend and feel morally-superior thus justified in a pending mass butchery of civilians, and destroying whole countries, in the pursuit of Israel's dopey aggressive domineering self-serving parasitic and horendously faulty foreign-policy objectives?

And when their own IDF military and state security services have said repeatedly, and very publically, that Iran is not doing anything worthy of risking everything in going to war with them?  They don't want a bar of what Israel's failed leadership is dishing up, and I'm pretty sure the Israeli people are beyond fed up with them.

Look it up, or must I shower you with links on that as well?

You think Israel's people are up for the following? ... given those facts? ... published yesterday:

Tel Aviv 'exodus' planned in event of missile strike

 

Published: 12 June, 2012, 18:33

 

Today, “every civilian is threatened in Israel,” Colonel Adam Zusman, chief of the Home Front Command in the Tel Aviv Metropolitan Area, told AFP. “In case of a missile attack on the center of Israel, especially unconventional, the population from Tel Aviv and other cities will be evacuated and relocated in other areas of the country,” he warned. “In the next war, nobody will be able to drink a coffee in Dizengoff,” he said, in reference to the major downtown artery one known as the Champs-Elysees of Tel Aviv. “We are getting ready for the worst-case scenario,” he continued. The head of Israel’s parliamentary committee for home front preparedness told RT in April that 1.7 million people did not have adequate shelter and 3.5 million did not have gas masks. He further said that even if factories received the necessary finances, it would take a minimum of two years the fill the gas mask gap.

http://www.rt.com/news/israel-evacuation-missile-strike-641/

 

As for plane trips, how about you fuck-off back to that malevolent landscape of wannabe neocon zionist zombies, ... we'll give you a free one-way ride ... half-way ... bring your floaties, you'll have to swim the rest .. you might get there just in time for a bio-chem heavy-bombardment.

Have fun ... you can tell them about the Rummy Report ...  they're going to love it.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:21 | 2520217 janus
janus's picture

B,

you're makin janus think he should've headed west...well, you and ole B Gross.  

janus does LOVE california.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glb2U6y-GdU

cowboy-style,

janus

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:28 | 2520227 Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

Love the diving bird in the background near the end.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:32 | 2520233 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Charles is o.k. but do his numbers include transfer payments because half of U.S. household exist on some form of government handouts.

 

And U.S. wages and salaries is today's issue?

Maybe the sheeple should have listened to Ross Perot.

The giant sucking sound has been good paying jobs leaving the U.S. for the last, oh 20 years.  Not exactly new news.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 22:42 | 2520243 Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

Also, what percentage of corporate earnings were sourced overseas back in the 80's compared to today?  How much of that labor was automated away with capital intensive equipment?  Hasn't the ratio of corporate debt to earnings skyrocketed as well?  What was/is the percentage of foreign ownership (capital)? Afraid Biderman's ratio (if I understood him correctly to be comparing total domestic income to total market cap) seems a bit simplistic.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:18 | 2520290 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

Good discussion. In addition to stagnant wages and falling stock investments you mention, we also have seniors drawing down their savings which, BTW, are yielding a meager 0.05%. Globalization may prevent wages in the West from ever returning to their former level.

 

I doubt “investments from abroad” will be a substantial boost to this market (or any other) in the near future since every fairly wealthy nation is deleveraging. Furthermore, the bursting housing bubbles in Australia and Canada are in their infancy. This may cause a ripple effect from those countries' subprime defaults into the global system.

The many other uncertainties (like war, etc) may influence the markets significantly also.

I look forward to your videos. Pls keep them coming.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:57 | 2520387 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

I claim the honor of boiling the rope

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:06 | 2520408 kedi
kedi's picture

I imagine a single panel cartoon.

A gigantic soaring dam is holding back a flood of bad debt. At the foot of the dam is the head of a winding line of taxpayers disappearing off into the far distance. At the head of this line is the Fed. Cutting off all the fingers of the next taxpayer and his minions scurrying to stuff them into the all the leaks springing out from the dam.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:27 | 2520435 bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

"what they deserve" is to be torched. if charles is saying the public will torch wall street when the market crashes. i'm betting on bread, circuses, and drones and bullets.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 01:59 | 2520582 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

I can't help but notice the CHEMTRAIL in the skyline.....

Stop Chemtrail spraying.......

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 06:19 | 2520720 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Whats this guy talking about ? I don't quarrel with his analysis but the labelling that goes with it. 

For a start the FED is a PRIVATE bank. Its not a government owned central bank. Its owned by the PDs, the kings of WS and world finance. Its these private Oligarchy banksta shills who OWN US government. So the FED/Bernanke works for them, not the other way around. This whole crisis of civilization on both sides of the pond is about private banks and private Oligarchs, accountable to nobody, having built a funny money economic model ostensibly very lucrative for their interests, divorced from the real economy more and more, now gone viral and manipulated via FED  to protect their OWN private core interests, at the expense of the people of democratically elected countries. Simple as that. 

So its not the MOTHER of central banking world per se, she that controls the reserve currency, she that is OWNED by the private oligarchy, who is to blame; its the shareholders who ORDERS she executes. Those very private sector Oligarchs who pay 8% corporate taxes and park their toxic financial wastes off their books in shadow banking dark holes which are used for OTC derivative plays directly or indirectly via their HF partners. Its this reality which is going belly up.

THEY will get what they deserve along with the sheeple who will get much worse, as they are innocent; and this is a world wide disease. Cause and effect, lets get our focus right.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:14 | 2523475 mendolover
mendolover's picture

I wanna live in Sausalito!  Nice chemtrail over SF.

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