Biderman On Central Banks: "In The End, They Will Get What They Deserve"
"We live in interesting times" is the understated introduction to one of Charles Biderman (of TrimTabs) more concerning and stunned rants. With the value of all stocks still around double the 2009 lows yet today's incomes are barely growing, and realistically - with all the headwinds we face - there is no hope for rapid growth in wages & salaries anytime soon, the avuncular analyst feels the need to warn all that "stock prices are due to plunge". Following a little stock market history, Charles notes that while wages and salaries in the US have quadrupled over the past 30 years, the value of all US stocks has risen 18 times. In 1982, stocks relative to wages & salaries were 0.6-to-1 and now the ratio is north of 2.6-to-1. This is explained by an interesting discussion of the excess wage growth over spending argument (once basic human needs are met - and a bigger house) which prompts a brief interlude on wages & salaries as 'the' trim-tab (marginal mover) for stocks. Implicitly then, "How can stock markets be this high if the real economy is barely growing?" - the obvious answer is Central banks are tying to solve all the world's problems via the printing press and as the Bay-Area bad-boy notes, the central banks may be the largest market participant but they are not the only one and in the end "they will get what they deserve" as stocks drop to 2009 lows.
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