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Biderman on Dow 6000

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The storm clouds gathering behind Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs, are a perfect analogy for his fascinating treatise on the key to long term bull markets and why the Dow will be cut in half. Bringing together the critical fundamental driver of P/E multiples - income growth in his view - and the historically most critical secular shift of this fundamental driver - communications breakthroughs, Biderman remains calm (for once) in his explanation for why the current low levels of income growth mean that should a new reality of less Fed exuberance (or a belief in less Fed exuberance) occur, the Dow will go to 6000 as he sees little evidence of technological innovations of the scale needed to lead the next 25 years secular bull market.

 

 

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Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:06 | 2254527 vmromk
vmromk's picture

Dow 6000 can't come soon enough.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:20 | 2254572 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

git out yer popcorn...Mark Fischer about to come on CNBS to "defend" himself.

 

edit: Fisher just said it was simply a "bookkeeping error"...LMFAO!

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:35 | 2254664 Hober Mallow
Hober Mallow's picture

C'mmon!!

The breakthrough is Facebook and Twitter and IPhones.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:11 | 2254873 SilverTree
Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:31 | 2254993 clones2
clones2's picture

Mistake #1 -  Trying to use historical valuations for the market...  These #'s are totally disregarded by the market, I mean computers...

Mistake #2 - Assuming the FED will ever stop pumping in trillions of dollars worth of liquidity...

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:45 | 2255050 tickhound
tickhound's picture

You'd think, at SOME point, da bernank would at least TRY to make equity movements LOOK real. 

If I had DA POWA!!!... I'd at least throw in a 2% correction entry point bitchez, ONCE in a fucking while... I mean JEEEEEEEEEEZ.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 20:52 | 2256398 malek
malek's picture

#2 - Oh, they will stop pumping in trillions of dollars worth of liquidity! The only question is if they will then start pumping in quadrillions of dollars worth of liquidity instead, or not...

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 20:43 | 2256381 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

99% is CHATBOARDS, it isn't people buying something. Wait til they charge for it. You are delusional.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 16:59 | 2255781 VanceEva1
VanceEva1's picture

my classmate's sister makes $82 hourly on the internet. She has been out of work for 10 months but last month her income was $17192 just working on the internet for a few hours. Read more on this site ....  http://qr.net/h7eu

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 20:44 | 2256385 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

yea, and you reached in your ass and pulled out a bunch of thousand dollar bills!

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:15 | 2254579 4realmoney
4realmoney's picture

RON PAUL PRAISED BY NASSIM TALEB, AUTHOR OF BLACK SWAN

http://djia.tv/ron-paul/ron-paul-praised-by-black-swan-author-nassim-taleb/

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:24 | 2254609 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Western civilizations should look to Easter Island as a case study for a closed loop system (global laissez faire capitalism). 

If laissez faire capitalism use up its resources (middle class) without replenishing it, your society will die off (lack of consumers=death of consumer society).

 

new case study: Greece & Spain with youth unemployment ~50%.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:33 | 2254654 bpj
bpj's picture

A mythical island where everyone makes a living taking in each others laundry.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:15 | 2254899 pods
pods's picture

And you cannot leave out Godzilla!

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 14:39 | 2255241 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

No, no, FIRE is where it's at.  We're all either going to be bankers, insurance salesmen, or real-estate brokers.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:13 | 2254892 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

The Jared Diamond angle on this was deforestation killed them. Even when they saw it coming, they chose to ignore the implications. My superficial interpretation of the analysis was that it was a feudal theology that killed them, not laissez faire capitalism. I would say our crony not-so-capitalist system that is regressing away from science and rationalism could easily bring on our annihilation.

Real capitalism with some legal framework to penalize externalizing costs to the planet/environment would be great, but the latter condition may be impossible, given how selfish and prone to optimistic denial humans are.

The scary part of the Easter Island story is how when the Dutch made contact with them, their language was similar enough to polynesian interpreters on the Dutch ships to be able to communicate with them immediately. They had regressed into a startling barbarism very similar to The Road.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:51 | 2255077 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

How would "real capitalism," especially in regards to its requirement for growth, function in a resource limited environment like Easter Island? I'm not challenging you; I'm just curious.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 17:20 | 2259426 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Perhaps I didn't formulate that ideal with enough clarity. I meant primarily that what happened on EI was deforestation and that the government there was a feudal system with strong religious undertones, not laissez faire capitalism.

Then I meant to critique the use of the word capitalism, since like communism, we've never seen either in action on earth before. So I was implying that "real capitalism" with supply and demand and large open free markets has many excellent characteristics, but empire building stongmen (or women) never like it because it doesn't allow them to corrupt and influence peddle.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:43 | 2255036 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You do know that Easter Island natives had no concept of "property", instead following local chiefs who wanted nothing more than their personal fame and fortune, right?

You do know that if Easter Island had had laissez faire capitalism, the landowners wouldn't have allowed the trees to be wiped out, as they were a valuable resource, right?

You do know that we don't have anything even closely resembling global laissez faire capitalism, right?  

You do know that you can't have laissez faire when you build your entire global monetary system on a foundation of monetary intervention by central bankers, right?

You do know that your whole thesis is thus based on absolute bullshit, right?

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:53 | 2255083 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Again, I'm just curious; is the key here to survival the power of "landowners?" I mean in regards to Easter Island.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 20:55 | 2256404 malek
malek's picture

Playing dumb, are we? Ever heard of property ownership? And that pretty much everything else is based on it plus enforcing property rights?

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 21:59 | 2256529 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

No, I'm not playing dumb, jackass. Explain how capitalism works in a closed system like Easter Island. Or fuck off.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 00:28 | 2260824 malek
malek's picture

You are really stupid. "Closed system" - now I only wait for you to bring up the Second law of thermodynamics here...

What do you think would have happened if the previously existing trees on Easter Island would have been owned between a bunch of people, and not by one "king" or "highpriest" or whatever they had?

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:25 | 2254618 sunny
sunny's picture

Dow 6000 will never happen.  Bernanke will print so fast that inflation alone will drive the markets higher, even if the dollar is totally trashed in the process.  Who is to stop him?  Obama?  Mit?  Someone else?

sunny

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:53 | 2254774 Ahwooga
Ahwooga's picture

Im not saying you're necessarily wrong, but the fact that this assumption is so universally entrenched and accepted worries me. The widespread level of confidence in continued and extended printing should be of concern to any ambivalent observer. 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:02 | 2254809 resurger
resurger's picture

 

 

Anyone who has put faith in the FED shall be FUCKED!

please read hoodwinked by John Perkins...

i say DOW to 37,000, no its going to 100,000K.

When i asked my father (who was a sheep) how did you lose your money?

he told me, i didnt see it coming, nobody have seen that coming!!!!

good luck

 

P.S: the QE Effect is wearing off btw, its like when you sniff blow for the first time you get the ultimate kick, but then it becomes normal

untill it drops you fucking dead.

so the next time when they announce a QE "What else is fucking new"

but imagine they say no QE!

 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 14:01 | 2255108 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I don't think so. I think those who fall in line with the restructuring will likely do very well. It's a limited set of people who can make this choice, and the number will continually shrink. This is the collapse, but it's only a collapse for those who haven't made it into the escape pods. I think everybody will be screwed eventually, but that's pretty far in the future, IMO. Growth will continue, but it will only be measured for a smaller and smaller subset of the world's population.  The American peasantry will continue to do OK for a while, maybe substituting boxed mac and cheese for Big Macs more often.

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 03:30 | 2256937 resurger
resurger's picture

you remind of Paul Krugman...

Long Hope

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 13:41 | 2258599 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

No, I personally have zero hope. Call me kindling.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 15:24 | 2255434 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

COLD TURKEY!

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:11 | 2254875 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Obama?  <que laughter>

Mitt? <que even more laughter>

Bernanke will dam well do what the criminal sociopaths that run the predatory world-wide wealth transfer tell him to do.

Mitt and Obama are lower level puppets in the real scheme of things.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 14:53 | 2255283 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

The Dow Jones can be whatever TPTB want it to be. They need simply change the companies, or the number thereof. So the Dow will be what the Street wants it to be.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:45 | 2255051 Born-Again Bankster
Born-Again Bankster's picture

I think DOW 6000 is a pipe dream.  While I understand the house of cards, I also understand the lengths central banks will go to defend their empire.  I think DOW 6000 will come in the form of DOW 15,000 combined with the value of the underlying dollars supporting it declining quietly by 35% over the next 5 years.  Of course, the Fed will maintain everything is fine with a mild increase to 2.1% inflation and might even throw in a war with Iran to mask the printing...again.  Sigh.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:07 | 2254531 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

<---- This is Bullish

<---- This is Bulshit

 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:13 | 2254553 Benedict Farse
Benedict Farse's picture

*applause!*

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:19 | 2254583 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

the DOW is going to 1,200 (circa 2016-2017)

Biderman hasn't calibrated for TSHTF by the bucket (Trillion) load

Debt imploding doesn't just destroy debtors, it wipes out the creditors too (double dastardly disaster)

Looking for no counterparty risk? ...grab some Gold and Silver, the only assets you can sit your arse safely on

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:17 | 2254909 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Reminder:  "Banks can handle a 50% reduction in equities" as per the STRESS test.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:09 | 2254536 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

The Careless Whisper LOLZ Of The Day & Threadjacking

From the John Goodman DUI Manslaughter trial;

Black outlined a different story. Goodman wasn't drunk, he told jurors. Rather, his car's computer system malfunctioned causing it to surge forward.

His forehead slammed into the windshield on impact, Black said, causing a concussion that left Goodman dazed and disoriented. He then walked away to look for help, found a barn belonging to an acquaintance, and drank liquor he found there to relieve the pain from his injuries.

Remember this is FloriDUH

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/crime/john-goodmans-dui-manslaughter-trial-continues-today-testimony-2236641.html

 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:27 | 2254625 sIewie the pi-rat
sIewie the pi-rat's picture

what about the part where he hoped for a miracle that somehow the person came back to life

 

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=Op8gAAAAIBAJ&sjid=lWgFAAAAIBAJ&pg=1...

 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:10 | 2254543 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Correlation doesn´t imply causality. It´s nice when you find stuff that matches but that doesn´t mean they are connected.


Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:16 | 2254587 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

Yeah, the China-miracle-would-not-be-possible-without-broadband argument seemed kind of weak.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:37 | 2254668 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

But lets play with the thought... According to this logic, smartphones and tablets, coupled with the incorporation of internet shopping in to peoples lifes on a real scale (as opposed to the dotcom bubbbles fantasy future) must mean we´re in for the mother of all bull runs. We all now this is not the case...

 

Or haven´t IPhones and Kindles reached Sausalito yet?

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:52 | 2254769 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

maybe SinoForest x1000?   The world became aware of China and invested for the first time, right?

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:31 | 2254649 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

How can the Dow go to 6000 if AAPL is going to 1000?! /sarc

Exhaustion gap TODAY on the stock that can do no wrong? Get yer puts now.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:10 | 2254545 dmger14
dmger14's picture

Can't stocks be nominally higher simply due to money creation?  Why does speculation on levels of stocks give no consideration to all the recent and future QE that is needed to prop up the ponzi's corpse?

 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:34 | 2254658 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Who the fuck junked this post?!? 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:01 | 2254816 Ahwooga
Ahwooga's picture

Not me. But I think the opposite is the case and that rather than no consideration being given to money printing with regard to specualtion on stock levels its almost ALL consideration on the assumption of continued and further printing. The thing that anyone bullish and/or long the market should be thinking about is what happens IF the money creation stops. Not saying it will but as I alluded to above, there is a more or less universal assumption that they will keep going. What if?

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:19 | 2254925 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

The printing CAN´T stop. The very idea is that a ponzi scheme collapses when new money ceases to flow in and the modern world of finance is very much like a ponzi. 

 

IF the printing press was to stop suddenly, The Benank would receive some very angry calls from his masters. Unless thay have been given time to exit the market, in which case we´ll have a massive drop in equities even before the printers grind to a halt.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:24 | 2254958 Ahwooga
Ahwooga's picture

Broadly I agree, and that is the most likely outcome. My concern about being or getting long is that that is the assumption that EVERYONE is working with, and as we all know, Mister Market likes to fuck the largest number of people he can at any one time.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:52 | 2255080 dmger14
dmger14's picture

This is my point, that the printing will continue and prices will remain high with no Dow 6,000.  Even if printing were to stop, would prices fall by 50% or more with all the already-created money still in the system? We haven't heard a peep about an exit strategy and mopping up liquidity in well over a year.  Even if the fed did try to soak up the liquidity, what do they have of value to sell, treasury trash and toxic assets that are even more toxic?  I can surely see a market crash like last summer to spur an overt QE to bring maximum effect come election time, but then a bubble reflation once again and no Dow 6,000.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:11 | 2254550 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

I am rooting for Charles.  But right now Buck Fernankie is kicking his ass.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:07 | 2254850 yakmerchant
yakmerchant's picture

In nominal measurements maybe, Charles and his like need to stop using the measuring stick the Bernake keeps recalibrating.   They need to take the USD out of the equation and start quoting their predictions in gallons of gas, or loaves of bread or god forbid ounces of silver.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:11 | 2254551 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

There's only one communication breakthrough that can save us now: Teleportation!

_____________________________________________________________________________

Compare gold and silver prices

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:24 | 2254614 piceridu
piceridu's picture

Has already been discovered by our Pres. Obummer. Sorry, I thought you wrote Telepromptation

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:40 | 2255029 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

No he meant Hypothecation. That is teleportation of money and commoditites.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:47 | 2255058 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

But there are still development problems with that technology.  So far, they can only make the money vaporize; they can't make it reappear.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 14:39 | 2255240 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Oh it reappeared somewhere, that is for sure. Some banksta was made happy.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:12 | 2254552 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Little evidence of technological advances to get us to Dow 36,000? Has he not heard of The Bernank Heliprinter. All joking aside, I think he's being optimistic on the 6,000.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:12 | 2254555 tawdzilla
tawdzilla's picture

decoupling is transitory

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:12 | 2254558 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

The DOW doesn't need technological innovations to soar. All it needs is more printed money.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:34 | 2254661 espirit
espirit's picture

All it needs is Algo Churn.

Volume is transitory.

Dollah up, dollah down doesn't make a bit of difference.

 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:12 | 2254559 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Bernanke's prnting press, will ensure that the Dow 18,000 feels like a Dow 6,000.

Reltively speaking, the number goes up but its real impact goes way down.

It's just fun with numbers...or is that funny business with numbers

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:23 | 2254562 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Exactly.

To think otherwise is to live in fairy tale land along with those who think America is still free and the bankers aren't in control.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:13 | 2254560 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

but the FED haZ an invention!

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:25 | 2254616 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

"The Thin-Air Machine"

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:48 | 2254736 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

you want that gutenburger with fries sir? 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:13 | 2254568 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Dow 6000?  Is this before or after we find out who will be the next American Idle?

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:14 | 2254571 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

i sent this to all my friends & family.    you know ....those people who don't believe a word i tell them....those people who laugh at me as i stockpile canned goods, cotton socks & shoes at lower prices....those family members who told me that they want to do an "intervention on me" & take my computer away from me.   over two years ago i begged my friends & family to get the hell out of all paper & stack & stock.... but, according to these friends & family members, i'm just a stupid housewife & shouldn't be talking such nonsense.     maybe they'll believe CHARLES BIDERMAN.    ( & when they knock on my door, i have been secretly stocking for them, too; they will need me.)

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:18 | 2254591 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Make 'em clean the toilets before they get any handouts...

If the toilets are already clean, make 'em do it again (with a toothbrush)...

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 14:33 | 2254807 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

lynny is NOT gonna go to rehab!

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:19 | 2254917 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

It sure is funny how some people just dont want to hear you talk about gold and silver.  My wife is finally listening to me, but I can't get her to excercise some of her options on stock at work and sell it.  Grrr.  I've bought out of the money puts to hedge her portfolio.  At least she isn't giving me hell for stacking anymore.

As for the neighbors.....I don't know if I have enough gold to support everyone, lol.  I better go buy a bunch of blue pills, because all they will have to barter is their wife.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 19:09 | 2256170 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

Awww, he's just some doomer goldbug. Why don't you spend your money on movie tickets and granite countertops like a normal person? Good times are here forever. FOREVER!

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:15 | 2254581 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The collapse begins when we invade Iran. Either we will have a false flag or we will just go in on false CIA info. Either way that will be the excuse.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:44 | 2255039 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I think you forgot - to defend Israel from non-existent threats. If Israel attacks, the US will.  My guess is that the Enterprise is full steam ahead to the ME.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 14:20 | 2255169 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Phasers and Photon Torpedos locked on target!!

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 19:27 | 2256233 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

Why does Obama prefer Persian oil to Canadian or American oil? Blood??

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:19 | 2254584 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Equity bears haven't got a clue.  Sorry folks, but when stocks are denominated in a constantly losing currency, fiat, the price will constantly rise.  We are knee deep in 10% inflation, and as fiat is the weakest link in the Ponzi, it will only continue.  Think what you want, but Keynesian economics, the policy of all Central Bank chairmen, is to devalue the currency, this to raise exports.  What is the chief export for economies?  Debt. 

So to sell debt inflation stays high.  Inflation stays high and prices rise.  Prices rise and the Ponzi continues.  Get a grip, equity bears, and stop playing the game (as well as equity bulls, mind you).  Stop playing the game, and buy a real asset.  One which, in the end, will see its value appreciate no matter the level of inflation (printing fiat) or deflation (what is value when denominated in such). 

Buy silver, or if you have the funds, gold.  Drop the Fiat Ponzi on its head, and secure your own wealth at the same time.

BUY SILVER

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:18 | 2254589 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

So, then APPL will be worth more than the entire DOW component market cap combined?

 

Could APPL market cap exceed the value of all physical Gold?  I' kind of thinking not ;-)

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46545216

 

When/if AAPL caps at 1T we ought to start expressing our national debt in AAPL units of measure - kind of like the Yergen for crude.  And in other news, the national debt of the USA topped two dozen AAPLs today.

 

 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:38 | 2254677 espirit
espirit's picture

I've said it before, iThink snAAPL card.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:57 | 2254792 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

If we can remember that value is based on a billion subjective opinions.  Until it isn't,  and we go back to gold. again.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:18 | 2254592 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

As Cenk says, it is pretty obvious: "The Criminals are in Charge"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pVewLQlGqY

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:53 | 2254773 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Amazingly enough that might be the first thing Cenk has said that I agree with.

He's a douche.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 14:07 | 2255130 AbruptlyKawaii
AbruptlyKawaii's picture

that was epic " that guy over there he stole $1.6 billion dollars he's free to go, but you , you sent a tweet i didnt like so im gonna send the new york police to investigate you"

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:18 | 2254593 Popo
Popo's picture

What was that fringe theory about broadband?

 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:19 | 2254594 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

Time for levitation...

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:27 | 2254602 kurzdump
kurzdump's picture

He's right, innovation and growth are fueled by improvement in communication. Even growth of population is driven by (sexual) communication. 

However, there are still options to improve the effectiveness of communication. Things like realtime language translating programs, optimization of search tools, intelligent question/anwering programs (like that IBM stuff citi bought recently), implementation of skynet, ...

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:21 | 2254603 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

now thats the dip to buy!

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:22 | 2254605 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

He looks drunk

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:31 | 2254646 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Maybe he thinks he has reason to be drunk as all of the pillars that he believed to be solid have systematically crumbled beneath the foundation of his perceived existence.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:37 | 2254669 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

+1

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:22 | 2254606 flyonmywall
flyonmywall's picture

He does have a very good point. There is no driver that can actually take the DOW beyond 13k, other than the hopefulness of more EQ378 and beyond. Accessible and low cost communication makes things more efficient, allows for innovation, and makes new businesses possible, allowing for the deployment of capital for growth. There is no such driver right now, thus the DOW will be stuck, unless there is more printing and QE.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:03 | 2254828 PersonalRespons...
PersonalResponsibility's picture

The only thing I can think of that could turn this around would be a much better battery and a very good source of alternative energy.

 

Or aliens

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:24 | 2254612 MunX
MunX's picture

He doesn't see it, because that technology is getting suppressed.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:24 | 2254615 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

Biderman is wrong - he's forgetting about the creation of "Angry Birds"- which has created a whole new paradigm...

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:25 | 2254620 dynomutt
dynomutt's picture

GigE FTTH and power generation for individual homes that allow for grid disconnection.

 

How's that for communications advancement?

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:47 | 2254730 hawks5999
hawks5999's picture

That's probably great for the dozens of people worldwide with GigE FTTH and individual power generation.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:26 | 2254624 daz
daz's picture

what if a bull market gives companies the capital and opportunities to develop a telecomunications breakthrought instead? LOL

I see Internet 2.0 coming

 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:28 | 2254629 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

It doesn't matter what the historical data show:  If the Fed wants to pump the stock market, then it will do so, inflation be damned.  If not, then look out below.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:28 | 2254630 Stanwick
Stanwick's picture

Chuck hasn't heard of Apple?

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:28 | 2254632 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Logic dictates that Dow 6000 means one of two things.

1. The banks have lost complete control of the markets. Currently they run the markets as a Ponzi scheme, with iron fist control of price (there is no free market) ... and Ponzi schemes don't work in reverse.

2. Dow 6000 is part of the banker plan which was reflected by the words of Thomas Jefferson: "first by inflation then deflation ...". In this case, it would be used to break the backs of the people and throw the world in to chaos... as part of some larger plan (you choose the author).

Situation 1. might be good, if it lead to a reshuffling of the world power structure and a move to a moral, ethical and self-aware society.

Situation 2. is just more of the same.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:55 | 2254785 xtop23
xtop23's picture

How often in the history of the world has a massive upheaval in the status quo resulted in MORE freedom?

I'll wait

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:29 | 2254634 myshadow
myshadow's picture

'Your guess is as good as mine."

 

 

No shit Sherlock.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:47 | 2254735 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Don't guess!

Flip a god-damned coin and decide!

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:29 | 2254635 DavidC
DavidC's picture

If one takes a look at the Dow Jones since the early 1900s and considers exponential grwoth and decline (both on log and linear scales) I reckon the Dow will be at around 3,500 before this is done.

This is the start of the end of a debt supercycle starting in the late 1950s early 1960s. Either the CBs and Governments print and hyperinflate (which will destroy The Economy) or they accept and mitigate the damage as far as possible whilst defaulting and deflating (and why is deflation any worse then inflation when one of the arguments, job growth, appears to be ambiguous at best?).

DavidC

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:29 | 2254638 resurger
resurger's picture

Mr. Biderman,

+5

Regards,

 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:30 | 2254639 kito
kito's picture

should a new reality of less Fed exuberance (or a belief in less Fed exuberance) occur...

this reality is already here.....and will remain until at least after elections..why is it that hard to see? pms continue to get brutalized on no sign of any further easing/balance sheet expansion....despite zirp................which IS NOT QE....

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:02 | 2254822 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

pms continue to get brutalized on no sign of any further easing/balance sheet expansion....despite zirp................which IS NOT QE....

****************

"Brutalized"

JAN 1...Gold.. 1528

March 14...Gold..1647

Not only are you clueless about how to interpret monetary phenomena--

You can't even interpret a simple tape-

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:26 | 2254952 kito
kito's picture

maybe you should look how gold reacted after qe1 and qe2 and then check back with me after it peaked post qe2..... funny you didnt post the tape where gold read:

august 22, 2011....gold.....1917.90

march 14, 2012...gold.....1647

that should clarify things a bit for you....

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 15:51 | 2255523 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

maybe you should look how gold reacted after qe1 and qe2 and then check back with me after it peaked post qe2..... funny you didnt post the tape where gold read:

august 22, 2011....gold.....1917.90

march 14, 2012...gold.....1647

****************

You and your daily micro views are a laugh-

The only clarification that's required is for you-who got left in the dust with your mouth hanging open and your emotions simmering in jealousy-

Here's your bubble-

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2012/01/Gold-M2-ratio.png

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2012/01/Gold-MZM-ratio.png

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2012/01/Gold-SPX-ratio.png

Here's your brutalized gold price-

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2012/01/usgmonth-1.gif

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2011/09/Gold-Rand.png

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2011/09/Gold-XAD.png

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2011/09/Gold-Loonie.png

Check back with me-

 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:30 | 2254641 sIewie the pi-rat
sIewie the pi-rat's picture

Bidie ForGETZ about the inovative user profile CLONING maCHINE!!!

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:51 | 2254760 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

that is a great analogy for what the FED does, btw, clonie

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:30 | 2254643 kengland
kengland's picture

How can it go to 6000 when the fed and other central banks take it higher daily? ZH is getting so fulking boring. Same old shit for years now, just a different day

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:59 | 2254808 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

You may have missed several days that were really important.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:07 | 2254849 jse111
jse111's picture

Points!

The chronic drumbeat of negative input is subjectively ZH editorially inputted while virtually all positive market viewpoints are not just suppressed but ignored. Additionally, a colony of muddled minds then vigorously supports the featured fool of the day posting and any dissent is quickly crushed into attempted annihilation. Paraphrasing, if one gives a rat's ass what Charley Biederman, Art, give me another double, Cashin, or the all time stopped clock, A Gary Shilling et al expresses, open an exclusive passbook savings account and work 12-hour days for the remainder of your miserable existence and your progeny's future.

It is unfortunate if one hates the colored man in the oval office, the welfare state, national health insurance, the national debt, or whatever form of embraced nihilism is currently in play, the market is not going to 6000 in the foreseeable future. Folks, the copper index, US homebuilders index, and the global banking index all bottomed in 11/2011. Additionally, the S&P index is below its historical mean. No, they do not fly the Goodyear blimp over your barbecue pit with buy now blazing away. Furthermore, 2012's first 10-weeks have been wonderfully profitable for those objective minds that fought through the firestorm of rampant self immolation and actually bought significantly depressed equities with more to come, props.

In parting believe what you wish and vote down any and all positive thought. I assure you, that few if any enlightened souls give a ****!

 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:42 | 2254920 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture
  1. Best of luck with your positive fucking thoughts.
Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:30 | 2254644 toadold
toadold's picture

Well some people will buy a stock because they think they can flip it real quick and sell it to some sucker. Given the supply of suckers that will often work.

Over simplifying, one could say a stock with a P/E ratio  of 1/23 is giving you a possible return of 4.3 % which beats the "official" CPI of 3.1 % and would be better than a bond that barely pays 1%. However with real inflation closer to or over 8% if you buy the stock you are going to bleed if you buy and hold. 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:32 | 2254652 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

DOW 6000 will happen when Dudley decides it should, just like in 2009.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:34 | 2254657 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

"as soon as the Federal Reserve stops flooding the markets with liquidity"(?) I don't think that is going to happen anytime soon and neither is DOW 6000. More likely DOW 35,000. The DOW itself has decoupled from anything meaningful other than a barometer of the massive liquidity injections into the calcified and sclerotic arteries of the moribund body of finance. His premise of communications "breakthroughs" as positively correlated with equities bull markets sounds a bit simplistic. but his "guess is as good as mine". His growing stress levels as witnessed in his videos is probably the most immediate and significant indicator that something is terribly and irremediably wrong. Biderman knows that. His frustration is palpable. Like many other veterans of the financial community, he can't quite bring himself to believe that this madness can actually be happening.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:35 | 2254663 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I think what he meant by "China by Broadband" was in essence, to get the entire country under a fast ethernet system which would allow commerce between Chinese Vendors and American Corporations communicate at a "speed of light" pace.  It also effects the "cool shit" that American Consumers are willing to spend their hard earned money on.

That means, when the iStuff we buy needs to be modified, shipped, made, etc....the turnaround time for such product was increased 100x fold (think FoxConn workers churning out 12K iPhones a day; as well as the fact that 3G, 4G Broadband allows the DESIRE for those phones to be purchased, XBOX/PS3 online gaming boom, etc).

Also, LOL at the 5% yearly raise (after inflation)!  Sounds like a country I'd wanna live in!

He failed to mention how the Housing market also inflated things quite a bit after 9/11.....but overall, good stuff here.  Dow to 6K is a reasonable target...the question is:

A) What is the DOW ceiling (14K? 15K? Higher with QE3?)

B) When and at what rate does this shit collapse?

 

 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:36 | 2254667 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

I guess sub nano second markets does not count as a communications breakthrough...

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/welcome-sub-nanosecond-markets

 

/sarc off

 

Pete

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:38 | 2254674 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

looks like stocks will give back 2-2.5% today or tomorrow, but still long way to 6000

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:39 | 2254681 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Dow 6000? We're on 13.000! What crisis?

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:41 | 2254682 Xue
Xue's picture

Dow will get to 30,000, but one coffee will cost 50 dollars.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:39 | 2254684 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Hi Charlie!

You want technology development?  You got it!

http://focusfusion.org/index.php/site/category/C70

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:03 | 2254821 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Is that ACME's Black-Hole planet destroyer?!! =O 

If you can run a test and destroy the Earth, the Pentagon has unlimited funds for the project ;)   They'll even let you borrow their P-38 space modulator found at Roswell.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:12 | 2254885 FranSix
FranSix's picture

You go by the facts, not your own personal incredulity.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:40 | 2254688 notadouche
notadouche's picture

Well I suppose it would depend on what DOW 30 they are referring to.  As long as they keep tossing out the worst companies of the DOW and replacing them with more successful companies then what is actually going to stop the DOW from continuing to charge forward.  I highly doubt the DOW we knew just about 4 years ago would be as successful as the DOW that is followed today.  Another slight of hand trick that people seem to forget about and just keep up hyping the market.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:43 | 2254704 peekcrackers
Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:45 | 2254711 rumblefish
rumblefish's picture

Can someone explain how the fed has elevated the market given the low volmue? I am looking for the actually mechanics of how this works.

How has ZIRP/ operation twist pushed us above 13k?

Thanks!

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:00 | 2254813 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

I think this is how;   1010101010101110101010010101010010001001010101010101010111010101010111

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:56 | 2254718 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Forever-BULL Thomas Lee on cnbs this morning, when asked how (and why) the market can keep rising when retail investors continually pull money out and do not re-enter - said, "share buybacks"...

That's the bull case!! Forever ramping 'earnings' (and bonuses) as companies turn into mad cannibulls (sic).

(although, regarding Biderman, he could be missing the big communication breakthrough in front of his face - overpriced iPads which are VAX-like dumb-terminal windows to Facebook, Twitter, and The Internets) - rally on.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:50 | 2254751 1971
1971's picture

So he is betting on a future Communication Breakdown. He's old enough to have seen Zeppelin at Kezar Stadium.

 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:53 | 2254776 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

It was almost surreal watching this video on one monitor while watching AAPL tick off a new all time high every few seconds on another monitor.

I think I now fully comprehend Dante's Inferno.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:57 | 2254797 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

There is only one reason why anyone would park their funds in equities, they expect their "investment" to make money.  That is as fundamental as finance and economics gets.  We were just told that the P/E ratio of the market is 23, and that is indeed quite high, so when I see a day like yesterday I can only conclude that those with money to buy equities are expecting markets to go higher yet.  The only other way for them to make money in equities is via dividends and those are at historic lows, so low that they border on the notion of a quaint old idea.

Clearly there is no reason to expect the individual companies within the indexes to suddenly start displaying healthy organic capital appreciation when even the Fed says that growth is not good, so the only reason I can think of for a P/E of over 12 no less double that, is an expectation of hefty money/credit creation.  So, this is the common logic driving the markets, that sovereign wealth from the whole world will create and plow funds into US equities, something I refer to as welfare for the investor class, trickle down on steroids. 

I sincerely doubt that the market will be allowed to fall to 6,000, I would like to see real fundamental pricing in real markets, but we do not now have real markets.  The vast majority of middle class Americans have lost a large percentage of their household wealth if not ALL their wealth through the loss of RE equity, the Treasury and Fed are not going to allow stocks to collapse as well, and they will not permit bond prices to find a market price either (that is allow the market to dictate interest rates).  There is a whole baby boomer generation poised to retire, some 80 million over the next decade, and with house value in the near double digit trillions wiped out TPTB are not going to allow the other legs of retirement funding to be damaged as well.  So, ZIRP for as far as the eye can see, and direct (illegal but direct) equity buying by the Fed and Treasury to support and even raise stock prices. 

That is the problem with the commentary above, technically, fundamentally he is right about the P/E's and incomes if somewhat obtuse about communications being responsible, and IF we still had a real market where investors determined prices of all investment vehicles the Dow would be at 6,000 or less, by the way, that 23 P/E is actually a lot higher when you stop to consider that a lot of the "E" earnings of the companies is based upon accounting practices that would have been considered fraudulent just 4 years ago.  If corporations were forced to write down impaired assets to anything like a market value you would find earnings a hell of a lot lower or even non existent.

But, we do not have a market where there is real price discovery and have not had since BushCo was in office.  Actually not since Slick Willy was in office.   They were just better at hiding the messes.  By this standard I think of equity accounts more like a savings account backed by the Fed/Treasury with negative interest for most people, a few lucky ones will realize a positive return, but nobody will really make much after real inflation is considered.  And at this point it is all just fictional electronic dots on a computing cloud anyway, there is no connection between corporate production and a genuine market price. 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:56 | 2255096 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

+6,000

Another thing to consider is that people see the devaluation of their cash and feel they have no alternative but to play the equities game in the hope (gamble?) that they can come out ahead or at least maintain purchasing power.  When you know you're going to lose 10+% of your purchasing power per year holding cash, it encourages you to take risks, despite knowing the market is rigged.  

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 12:57 | 2254798 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

By the looks of the market screens,he means 60.000

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:09 | 2254861 kahunabear
kahunabear's picture

Hold on a minute! Isn't this the guy Maria B. used to quote and talk about all the "money on the sidelines" and the market going ever higher? I have to admit I haven't heard him mentioned lately on CNBS. He better get back with the program if he expects to earn a living in this business.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:10 | 2254869 Augustus
Augustus's picture

His simplification is really pretty good.  It does not go far enough though.  The earlier cases he cites included transportation breakthroughs.  So that people were able to get the information more rapidly, react to it in supply markets, and use new and less costly forms of transportation to create a more efficient and better system.  The consumer participated in both building the system and from lower costs and wider selections of better goods.

Now we see that the information availability is being used to sell and popularise myths and fairy tales.  Reference the Geo Wash scare stories designed to feed nonsense to the ignorant.  Bringing back a new form witch burning will not advance the human condition.  The self imposed constraints on energy production will only make transport costs increase, further reducing the spread of the benefits.

My view is that it is not necessary for these to occur.  However, Robert Heinlein had it correct.  When the Religion of Mother Gaia is used to extinguish growth and prosperity, it will be chalked up to simply "bad luck."

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:16 | 2254905 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Funny you should mention "irrational exuberance".  The Dow was at 5600 when former gold bug Greenspan made his famous statement.  Keep up the good work T.D.!

 

Tuco

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:23 | 2254955 runthenumbers
runthenumbers's picture

The communication breakthrough that Biderman misses, is the computerization of the Stock Market.  It is so easy for the FED/government to manipulate it that nominally this market will never again go down.  Forget about it.  Welcome to 1984.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:44 | 2255043 mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

Technological progress is still happening, very fast by the way, but I don't think it can keep up with the FEDs printing in the short term.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:45 | 2255052 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

I don't give two shits about a market I'm not going to participate in. Tell me what my house will be worth, or how much principal I can negotiate off my house, and include a modification to boot. When does the collapse begin? The collapse begins when the entitlementers no longer get their "fair share" and revolt. When credit dries up, completely and quickly. When the unprepared utilize their last remaining resources. Ditch past theories, ratios, and anything you learned in econ or finance. We will inflate until we can't, the markets are no longer relevant.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 13:49 | 2255066 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

The iPay is becoming the iOwe which will morph into the iPray

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 14:27 | 2255198 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

the smart phone doesn't qualify as a communications break-through?  maybe not, but something has changed.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 14:57 | 2255300 casper007
casper007's picture

well 6000 DOW = $6000 GOLD ok maybe...

Geeze USA needs to crash - default and start new thats what this is all about, just need the right spark, where are those IRAN matches

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 14:57 | 2255301 casper007
casper007's picture

well 6000 DOW = $6000 GOLD ok maybe...

Geeze USA needs to crash - default and start new thats what this is all about, just need the right spark, where are those IRAN matches

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 16:08 | 2255599 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

S&P500 of last three months looks like it is on an almost perfect parabolic trajectory, apart from the glitch of last week, PPT nicely corrected this

random walk?

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 16:49 | 2255735 CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

Aren't Trim Tabs a diet pill or something?

Sorry.

I agree with a previous poster - he looks drunk.  Bless his heart, but that shirt isn't helping.

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 17:45 | 2255919 WageSlave
WageSlave's picture

What a bunch of jibba jabba. So naked ape tells story, predict future. 

If value is subjective, then how does naked ape know how millions of other apes value the DOW?

Perhaps other apes don't like story, prefer DOW 20,000.

Or perhaps on a long enough timeline, the DOW always go to 6000. 

 

 

Wed, 03/14/2012 - 23:52 | 2256734 bluebare
bluebare's picture

Well OK then, my guess is that the DOW will next pass through 6,000 on its way to your guess is as good as mine when the revolution innovates a way to communicate an era-ending "FUCK YOU" to TPTB.   Storm clouds, indeed.  

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