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Biderman Goes All-In Bearish

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"While there are many reasons to be bearish on stocks, there is only one good reason to be bullish. The only bullish hope is that the Bernanke Put again will save the stock market" is the salient reality that TrimTabs' CEO Charles Biderman exclaims in his latest clip. Shifting to 100% bearish this weekend for his institutional clients, he believes that even if the Fed QuEases again, the equity pop is well-discounted and will have at most a 10% impact before he sees at least a 20% drop from April highs followed by potentially worse as the realization of the fiscal cliff begins. The glass-half-full-of-truth Biderman notes four specific reasons for his bearish call: from wage and salary growth slowing to barely positive YoY, to the Fed's inability to create any multiplier effect to boost the economy; and from the slowing global economy where "low tides will uncover all the hidden garbage created by booms" to the basic supply/demand of stock and money based on his 'Demand' index dropping to six-month lows. His bearish view is not even predicated on Europe's conflagration accelerating which would simply add more fuel to the growing fire.

 

 

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Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:29 | 2646138 zero19451945
zero19451945's picture

The first time I read this I swear it said "Goldman Goes All-In Bearish" and I said "Holy shit, buy everything you can!!!!"

 

 

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:46 | 2646190 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I read on the internets the iPhone5 will have unlimited battery power charged by kleptocratic bullshit.  Also it will have a compartment for the anti-depressants its users love to pop.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:11 | 2646286 NotAMathWhiz
NotAMathWhiz's picture

I heard you could eat it.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:49 | 2646201 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"Ground control to AAPL shareholder.

"Ground control to AAPL shareholder.

"Take your protein pill and put your helmet on."

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:31 | 2646147 fuu
fuu's picture

Have another cocktail Charlie, you'll feel better.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:45 | 2646185 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Then let's get it on with that new top.

Fed is likely to throw a policy out there that is crafted to hold up the markets (purchase sizes tailored to market conditions). Of course, such a policy will further distort the pricing of risk, confuse investors and potentially delay
needed fiscal action, but policies have been terribly destructive, why would we expect anything else?

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:37 | 2646153 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

10-yr bond yield just dropped below 1.4%, lowest in over 50 years.  WoooHoooo!

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:33 | 2646379 madcows
madcows's picture

The 10-year is the basis for most mortgage rates.  So, I ask you, what's the difference between my current 20-yr mortgage rate of 3.8% (that I'm putting extra towards each month) and a new 15 year refi @ 3.1% after rolling all refinancing charges in?  About 9k over the entire term.  No thanks.  Tell me when I can refi at 2%.  Otherwise, the refinanciers can SUCK IT!

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:37 | 2646155 Jason T
Jason T's picture

there it is again!! The silk maroon button down shirt!

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:11 | 2646285 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

I do believe that that is actually genuine Polyester.....

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 16:14 | 2646809 marco1324
marco1324's picture

New futures market, The Biderman Shirt Index. I'm long on purple.  Note to self, keep off the crack.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 19:55 | 2647552 potlatch
potlatch's picture

He gives them names.  That one was "Morning Mist."

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 22:43 | 2647842 dirtbagger
dirtbagger's picture

No Pockets - he is wearing a silk pajama top

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:38 | 2646157 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Before anyone says that this bearish sentiment is what creates bullruns, let me just point you to MarketWatch, Yahoo Finance, CNBS, etc.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:16 | 2646300 Cursive
Cursive's picture

From Matt Nesto's "Breakout" via Yahoo Finance:

 

Another contrarian indicator that also supports his year-end price target of 1525 for the S&P 500 is the outflow of money; $150 billion out of domestic equity funds and almost $200 billion into bond funds. Add in a 3-month surge in short-interest, to the highest levels since last September and Detrick gets really excited, reminding investors that the previous confidence trough led to a 5-month, 30% rally.

Of course, any bear worth his weight in blubber can give you a list of reasons as long as your arm of things to worry about, but few - if any - of them are likely to be something you've never heard before. Still, in the face of all this fear and the Summer of Hate, Detrick is unbending.

"With all that negativity, this surprise rally could definitely continue and maybe be much stronger than a lot of us even think," he says, adding that "you want to buy all these dips and this market should continue to work its way higher."

 

 

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:56 | 2646470 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

If you measure sentiment by % of cash held in money market funds then it is very bullish.  Same goes for Investors Intelligence bull/bear ratio which is still net bullish.  What we have now is complacency.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:38 | 2646158 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

What's left after you're all Bearish?  I think we need a new term.   Lionish?  Tigerish?

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:40 | 2646166 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Ohmyish.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:42 | 2646412 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Failish

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 20:27 | 2647618 Catflappo
Catflappo's picture

Hashish  - they are making a hash of our once functional securities markets, and, well, they're clearly smoking it.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:49 | 2646203 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

I nominate, Mishish (after Shedlock).

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:42 | 2646410 TheFuture_MrGittes
TheFuture_MrGittes's picture

Sasquatchish - rarely seen and highly misanthropic.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:39 | 2646160 The Axe
The Axe's picture

AAPL will save the DAY!!!!    or NOT!!!!     NOT would be BAD......ha ha

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:39 | 2646162 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

If there is no QE in August this thing is going much lower than 20% down.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:50 | 2646208 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Too late to bail! Or is it fail?

Cannot remember.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:57 | 2646230 Quisat_Sadarak
Quisat_Sadarak's picture

It seems fairly unlikely that overt or large scale QE will happen before the election. If the FED did QE before Nov, then it would be seen as aiding the current administration before an election and thus losing its non-political-street-cred (whatever that is worth).

Also, if/when the economy tanks (soon), and the Bernank is up for reappointment, he needs a good crisis which give the next administration a reason to keep 'continuity' of effort on the economic problems. Think "Job Security".

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:44 | 2646418 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

The Fed and 'non-political-street-cred'?

I don't think so. The Fed is a political animal through and through. And I'm not convinced that Uncle Ben *wants* to be re-appointed, perhaps he could stand to return to the ivory tower and let some other PhD economist take the fall for what is coming.

ZH conventional wisdom and at least some street economists have the next QE, whenever (if) it comes not doing much good against the past half-life shortning of QE I and II and the very deteriorating macro trends, from US unemployment to Richmond Fed to Euro almost everything. My analysis/prediction/estimate/WAG is that the Fed will do a little *something* before the election that is less than what some in the market expect - extend ZIRP or lower bank rate or extend open window hours (joke, OK?)  - but not another QE, because even the doves on the board can sense the macro headwinds that would render QE pretty useless, as well as expensive and bad for the balance sheet.

Overall, I believe the Fed (and monetary policy) is pretty much done - there is no 'get to work' work to do that will alter the course of the current bearish correction to our warped economy. Congress needs 'to get to work' on a coherent fiscal policy, and that ain't gonna happen before the election, and I'm taking the under on it happening after the election. They may be able to sort of develop a deadlock that will allow the can to be kicked 6 months to a year, but that's it.

Executive summary - we are screwed. Stock up on what you need.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:13 | 2646290 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Dont discount as everyone loads up short for a few rip your nads off Algo short squeezes.  It will be bumpy no matter how she goes, unless its simply an elevator shaft and limit down...

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:42 | 2646173 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

but but robo told me retail is buying retail in droves.......

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:44 | 2646180 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

2pm EST Euro roomer.  Because the hedgies need it.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:45 | 2646186 c-rev with a twist
c-rev with a twist's picture

all this proves is that eventually biderman and prechter will be right (:

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:00 | 2646245 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Every dog has his day and a clock is right twice a day.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:02 | 2646256 c-rev with a twist
c-rev with a twist's picture

He he.  Exactly

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:46 | 2646193 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

beevstreet. dont children play outside in the playground during summer break.???

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:48 | 2646197 Beevreetr
Beevreetr's picture

Nope, we play in commodity pits watchin stops get hit fool

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:53 | 2646217 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

the only commodity pit you know is mommys sand box in your back yard.. now be a good boy and go out and play with your truckers.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:01 | 2646236 Beevreetr
Beevreetr's picture

Sand is not a commodity homo. The bean crush spread, Look it up.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:57 | 2646229 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

The Berstank needs congress to agree to take on more debt before he could do any meaningful easing, as he implicity said over and over again during testimony recently.  He's kind of stuck here because no one in congress wants to bump the debt limit way up right before a big election.  It becomes less likely every day.

And there aren't going to be any helicopters dropping money like he used to talk about before the market schooled him.  It's against the law, and even if he could do it, it would be directly over the banks and not anywhere else.  We already know trickle down doesn't work anyway.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:03 | 2646263 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

I think more likely that BB sees the writing on the wall, that QE is not having the response he wanted. He is trying to lay the blame on congress, on fiscal matters instead of monetary. I also think this may be BB's last term.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:10 | 2646282 bobbydelgreco
bobbydelgreco's picture

in the end charles will be right but i think he is too soon 1rst ben will qe big how big & when? sept & enough to relect the president after that i will join the bears

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:21 | 2646320 reddweb
reddweb's picture

LOL love his evil laugh starting @ 42s (only bullish reason is bernank put hahahahha ) 

 

 

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:23 | 2646332 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

Call me crazy but I wouldn't want to get caught in a 10% pop being 100% short.  

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:33 | 2646375 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

heard of stops?

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:42 | 2646394 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

Why don't you ask Charles, it isn't my position.  Sounds like 10% is his stop.  

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:35 | 2646387 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Oh Dick Bove:

Veteran bank analyst Dick Bove, normally a strong defender of big banks, lashed out on Tuesday against the No. 4 U.S. bank for the poor service it provided one of its customers: Him.

In an unusual research note, Bove, of Rochdale Research, listed a series of grievances at his branch in Tampa, Florida, where he said he enjoyed strong service before Wells bought Wachovia in 2008.

He still views Wells Fargo as one of the best managed banks in the United States, but concludes that serving customers well is much less important than selling them products. Effective financial management is also more important than customer service, he added.

Bove does not feel the bank was putting him first. In his report, he describes when a banker asked him to wait to talk with him, but instead went to the bathroom and then left the branch. In another example, the branch referred Bove to a call center for a question about a check, only to have the call center refer him back to the branch.

In an interview, Bove said the last straw came about 10 days ago when he withdrew an application to refinance his mortgage that had dragged on for about four months. Wells later sent him a note saying his application had been denied, which could hurt his credit rating.

Bove said he has been talking with the bank about his grievances for months, telling them his experience made him question the its statements about commitment to customer service.

"What my Wells Fargo experience suggests is that a successful bank is one that keeps seeking new customers and selling them more products and not getting bogged down by offering service," Bove wrote in his note. 

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 15:13 | 2646542 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Is DICK in?

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 21:57 | 2647772 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Karma.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 04:01 | 2648232 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Even horrible service can't convince Bove that the banks are a central bank FED and politician supported ponzi.

What a dope, what a maroon.

He will be a bank believer until he is in a soup line.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:47 | 2646437 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Mr. Biderman is right. The only negative aspect to making money is the FED because you don't know if and when that Freak crimminal Bernanke is going to do something.

I'll tell you this right now though..just because they have written themselves above the law doesn't mean that when law is restored they won't be prosecuted and sent to prison. F'n Bernanke, I want to short stocks but don't want to get the timing wrong.

How about one of those Chinese companies that are cooking the books. I'd like to short one of those suckers.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 15:00 | 2646483 denny69
denny69's picture

Biderman must be doing better. His shirt's a little snazzier than usual.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 15:12 | 2646532 Johnk
Johnk's picture

Biderman on CNBC June 18, 2009

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvoypBYG4nw

He was very bearish then too with S&P 500 @918.

And on July 30, 2007, he was bullish: "this is great times here" S&P 500 @1473

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1w8mJcExIOo

 

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 15:12 | 2646537 Bertie Bear
Bertie Bear's picture

I think that ship sailing off to the right of the screen as he speaks is a signal. A signal for what though?

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 22:00 | 2647776 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

How about that wave in lower left of screen at 3:43. Could it be a wave of the future...or surfs up?

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 15:33 | 2646611 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

where "low tides will uncover all the hidden garbage created by booms"

classic ... ranks with Schumpeter's ''creative destruction' .. maybe not as elegant

Remember, arguably but for Fall 2008 money market crisis following Lehman collapse, Bernie Maddoff is still the toast of the Manhattan/Bloomberg set

 

 

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 15:35 | 2646614 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

In the 07 interview Bonds were taking off as he kept blabbering on. Yields were 4.75% at the time showing the smart $$ knew what was coming. What a bufoon. Yields were collapsing as he was yapping... hahah.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 16:26 | 2646869 covert
Tue, 07/24/2012 - 16:47 | 2647026 FranSix
FranSix's picture

The Bernanke put will have to go into propping up bond prices and preventing a U.S. bond rout.  But that won't preclude the sale of assets in an ETF comprised of bonds.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:01 | 2654810 Remington IV
Remington IV's picture

Biderman needs to get back on his meds

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