This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Biderman Responds

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The Zero Hedge audience have always been tough task masters and will hold people's feet to the fire. While markets have been a little tempestuous to say the least recently, TrimTabs' Charles Biderman comes out swinging with a spirited and honest defense of his calls - and quite frankly we still tend to agree with his bigger picture view of where this ends. From his Facebook miss to short-term fluctuations in the equity market (that now seem precipitously away from credit market reality), Biderman responds to comments here and elsewhere on both position sizing and perhaps most importantly risk management - adding (and this is where we believe he is dead right though timing the call is practically impossible) that "when the collapse happens it will happen overnight - that is why [he wants] to be short but safe at the same time."

 

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:26 | 2690670 Rahm
Rahm's picture

Difidently a clown, but he beats the S&P which is better than 95% of fund managers out there.... plus holds 23% gold!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:28 | 2690686 veyron
veyron's picture

At the end of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUYDxnyNjMA&list=UU_FouojmbzN_jwBVkroDQBw... (a video that mysteriously didnt appear on ZH) there was a comment:

 

"All that is known is that Biderman took money from GS. It's very well possible that ZH itself is sponsored by GS.?"

 

Did ZH take money from goldman sachs?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:32 | 2690706 Rahm
Rahm's picture

Vey, your posts used to be informative, now you have turned into a troll obsessed with Biderman.  Perhaps people should go back to your seeking alpha account and troll your troll account there:

http://seekingalpha.com/author/nn-securities

 

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:35 | 2690715 veyron
veyron's picture

This is fight club, and questions about the ownership of ZH are fair game.  If not, that makes us no better than CNBC.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:40 | 2690734 Rahm
Rahm's picture

You are violating rules #1 and #2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agi8PUmlAKU

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:04 | 2690859 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Someone's You Tube Comment:

"Hey Charles, why do not show your REAL track record, the model portfolio of your institutional? Liquidity Review.

Wait, it is DOWN 90% IN THE PAST 4 YEARS!!! and this does not include this year's losses, I cancelled 6 months ago. Now that you lost all credibility with institutions, you try to rip off retail investors for $250 .... PATHETIC!"

 

Any truth here?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:02 | 2691121 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Aren't all his calls public via his letters after some time? Would just require someone going back through it all.

I don't have a horse in this race, I am just watching. :-)

Regards,

Cooter

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:43 | 2690740 Northeaster
Northeaster's picture

I would also add ZH does in fact have a disclaimer, but doubtful anyone reads such trivial things.

In the case of Biderman, he doesn't exactly have a great track record, but does provide great confirmation bias for the now regular readers/posters here at ZH.

The days of old, he would have been ripped apart here by people in the business.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:54 | 2690805 veyron
veyron's picture

That is tantamount to Biderman saying he works for TrimTabs.  

 

I'm asking if ABC Media is owned by Goldman Sachs ...

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:01 | 2690839 oddjob
oddjob's picture

I'm asking if your pathetic avatar makes you feel better about yourself?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 13:38 | 2691624 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I am asking if there is one thing that Biderman brings to Zero Hedge that is proprietary?

Other than going long FB at the IPO and going all in (by placing FB on his conviction buy list) at 31.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:09 | 2690880 Northeaster
Northeaster's picture

I can't comment on ABC. However, I can comment on CBS, as my ex-managing partner is also the VP and Board Member of CBS per the Viacom split.There is also the interconnected client base, which of course I can't publish, but a who's-who of everything you see and hear.

The firm is boutique, mostly tax, for high end only and Goldman was (most likely still is) the go to "bank" for clients. How do I know? I read the client letters before we sent them out to move their money there (GS) the night Madoff was arrested.

My regret? Working corp, during the massive M&A years, instead of being honest, I should have profited off that knowledge and been retired by now. Stupid me for believing in the massive hypocrisy that this country is, just too naive back then.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:13 | 2690897 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

Zerohedge.com Whois Information Domain Name: ZEROHEDGE.COM
Registrar: EASYDNS TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
Whois Server: whois.easydns.com
Referral URL: http://www.easydns.com
Name Server: DNS1.EASYDNS.COM
Name Server: DNS2.EASYDNS.NET
Name Server: DNS3.EASYDNS.ORG
Name Server: DNS4.EASYDNS.INFO
Status: clientTransferProhibited
Status: clientUpdateProhibited
Updated Date: 02-may-2012
Creation Date: 11-jan-2009
Expiration Date: 11-jan-2017

Registrant:
ABC Media Ltd
P.O. Box 3
Sofia, Sofia 1784
BG
Domain name: ZEROHEDGE.COM
Administrative Contact:
Hristozov, Georgi
P.O. Box 3
Sofia, Sofia 1784
BG
+359 2 875 35 99
Technical Contact:
Hristozov, Georgi
P.O. Box 3
Sofia, Sofia 1784
BG
+359 2 875 35 99
Registrar of Record: easyDNS Technologies, Inc.
Record last updated on 02-May-2012.
Record expires on 11-Jan-2017.
Record created on 11-Jan-2009.
Domain servers in listed order:
DNS1.EASYDNS.COM
DNS4.EASYDNS.INFO
DNS2.EASYDNS.NET
DNS3.EASYDNS.ORG
Domain status: clientTransferProhibited
clientUpdateProhibited
You have 99 lookups left today http://www.statscrop.com/whois/zerohedge.com ZH has not provided many stories concerning GS of late, just saying.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:40 | 2691022 i-dog
i-dog's picture

a) ZH does not censor any comments about GS

b) TD rips GS a new one quite frequently

c) ZH gives GS's [often contradictory] analysts plenty of rope to hang themselves

d) WB7 and other contributors here crucify GS constantly

e) The NWO will be taking all the banks down...when they are ready with a global electronic currency (that's the reason, IMO, for the increasing volume of anti-MegaBanks propaganda recently ... it's not just to divert attention away from the political ideology of the NWO)

... however:

f) Don't think for a minute that ZH is not a honeypot - whether wittingly or unwillingly.

jmo....

 

PS. Biderman sucks ... big time! jmo....

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:45 | 2691056 Northeaster
Northeaster's picture

http://www.goldismoney2.com/showthread.php?35173-zerohedge-s-pedigree

"If you actually trade based on information provided in a blog, zerohedge or any other, you need your head examined." -

Which is what the disclaimer basically says here on the ZH site. Which of course a cursory search will show the interconnections of that website as well.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:15 | 2692107 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

"If you actually trade based on information provided in a blog, zerohedge or any other, you need your head examined."

Bolded part is important, because advice on gambling is what it is.  Someone is trying to give you advice on what horse to pick.  Period, end of story.  Let's review kids:

1.  You can't predict the future.

2.  The house always wins.

 

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 17:13 | 2692240 larz
larz's picture

1. Dont need to predict anything to trade successfully

2. The house can win always only IF YOU ALLOW IT TO

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 13:51 | 2691658 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Would ABC Media, Ltd. of Bulgaria have ANYTHING to do with ABC News / ABC / Disney here in the USA?

Or is ABC Media, Ltd. its own organization?  I think that is a fair question to ask.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:24 | 2692130 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

http://gross-law.com/dalrymple.pdf

For those like DoChen that are too fucking retarded to even consider the idea of a Google search.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 18:49 | 2692431 fuu
fuu's picture

Quite the read actually.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 13:07 | 2691553 pd45
pd45's picture

"I'm asking if ABC Media is owned by Goldman Sachs ..."

Worse, the Bulgarian proxy is DHS honeypot. Sign off now or else..%$_&(01a

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:37 | 2691261 resurger
resurger's picture

Veyron,

excellent post on Biderman video.

So biderman fleeced GS by buying his own shares at "fractions" from that squid... If what he says is true (which i doubt) is a good thing.

I STILL CANT BELIEVE HE WAS BULLISH ON FB! Biderman!!!

 

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 13:40 | 2691629 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

He is a carnival barker, and nothing more.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:02 | 2691122 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

FACEBOOK, CREATED BY DOUCHEBAGS FOR DOUCHEBAGS, EXCLUSIVELY.

 

NOT LIMITED TO INVESTORS BUYING THIS DOUCHEBACK FUCKBOOK.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:48 | 2690761 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Straw man argument. Saul would be proud. The focus needs to be on his call and whether or not you agree. Nobody is right all the time when it comes to market. The question is are you more right than wrong. In this case I agree with him.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:56 | 2690821 veyron
veyron's picture

I made two major calls this year: short FB (31.50) and long ARNA (2.50).  I talked about it with many people on the chat.  Both have been exceptional.

It should have been obvious that FB was a flop, and in fact others are reporting that the institutional product has been a massive money loser.  No surprise goldman sachs sold its stake in TT at a major loss ...

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:15 | 2690898 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Nice attemt at misdirection, please try to stay focused. Most of us here made the same call on the  Facebook flop ,however that is a mute point. The topic is about his overall call on the broader market. and whether or not you disagree. The rest is all background noise. 

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:34 | 2691006 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

Mute? Make that a "moot" point Dr. E

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:43 | 2691037 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Thanks. Don't know what I was thinking. Listening to a compliance video and trying to post at the same time.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 13:48 | 2691645 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Biderman sold a stake of Trim Tabs to Goldman:

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2008-02-11/news/30758616_1_trimtabs-investment-research-goldman-sachs-supply-and-demand

Then Goldman Sachs buys facebook:

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/01/03/goldman-learns-you-cant-buy-friends-on-facebook/

Then Biderman starts hawking Facebook before the IPO:

http://trimtabs.com/blog/2012/05/14/bidermans-daily-edge-5142012-stocks-gold-should-rally-post-facebook-ipo/

Finance is a dirty busines, and I think Biderman's actions are louder than his words, which are pretty damn loud.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:44 | 2691049 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Yeah ... and also make Biderman's newfound religion a "stating the bleeding obvious" point!

Dr. E. knows it, too.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:48 | 2690773 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Veyron did you see I put your name in a comment on that video? lol

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:22 | 2690951 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

"Did ZH take money from goldman sachs?"

Are you seriously that stupid?

If ZH took money from goldman sachs, this site would have been long shut down.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:25 | 2690966 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

He's/she is  paid troll not worthy of response.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:26 | 2690968 ROCE
ROCE's picture

Absolutely true !!

But GS's Prop Desk = Biggest Client of Trim Tabs = VERY FISHY

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:52 | 2691082 veyron
veyron's picture

This site would not be shut down.  Rather, it would slowly temper its tone on GS, so that people wouldn't notice for a long time.

 

Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but the content was much more ... aggressive in pursuing GS back in 2009 compared to now.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:07 | 2691141 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Back in 2009 people didn't believe that the Fed was manipulating the stock market. People didn't know what prop trading was nor that, as we exposed, Goldman was the primary abuser and beneficiary of this. People didn't know what HFT was either. People thought Europe was "fine."

What exactly is your point?

If you would like to define the editorial content of ZH, perhaps you would like to buy a stake?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:44 | 2691292 veyron
veyron's picture

Actually, if you would seriously entertain such an idea, I would like to buy a stake.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 14:10 | 2691710 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

lol

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:47 | 2691303 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I did. And it was nice to find ZH and see that I was not the only one.

Nevertheless, it's not really an argument - ZH could still be a "special ops". If not the Squid, how about a Russian KGB or better, a Bulgarian? Or funded by Chinese money? Live with it, this is the price of anonymity. Some punches are to be rolled with...

And keep up the good work ;-)      How much is a stake?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:38 | 2691484 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

More

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:13 | 2692096 hannah
hannah's picture

what is so funny is...even if zerohedge is a chinese spy or a ex-kgb hookie...?...who cares. what can a website do yo you...? i love conspiracy theories but some people are just beyond stupid...

 

BTW...i heard that tyler durden was the person that actually stuck the rubber tube up marilyn monroes ass and delivered a fatal dose of drugs...? i demand an answer to this serious allegation.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 00:27 | 2693155 Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

haha the second Wall street film right?

whats your number?

"more"

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:02 | 2691358 ACP
ACP's picture

I would like to buy a stake also, and please post more on Biderman. The comments exchanged are always the best.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:35 | 2691473 redguard
redguard's picture

Tylers' How much to bring the captcha back?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:37 | 2691260 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Conspiracy-theory guys will believe anything that suits their world view. I'm sure you can convince yourself that ZH's tone towards GS has tempered. You probably also think NASA faked the moon landing or that the government has an alien spaceship at a secret base in Nevada.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 20:59 | 2692743 HeavydutyMexica...
HeavydutyMexicanOfTheNorthernKingdom's picture

yeah, i saw tyler walk right up to lloyd b and punch him right in the face.....just for beer money.  

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:16 | 2690914 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

yup..at least Bidee puts himself out there......he may be shill for the game but my guess is he's pumpin just to hang on in the BEAR of all bears........gl Bidee......when this bear is through with us.......we'll all be wishing we could eat Alpo.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:17 | 2690925 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Difidently a clown

 

You win the ironic quote of the month.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 22:14 | 2692887 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

and, unlike biderman, he's not too shy to accept it.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:26 | 2690673 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

"when the collapse happens it will happen overnight"

I thought the collapse was happening for the last 40 years.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:35 | 2690717 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

[Insert Dam breaking metaphor here]

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:54 | 2690809 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

OK, I visualize a huge dam with many leaks and bunch of "specialists" explaining how this is not a problem and how we've had those leaks forever. The next slide: the dam breaks... I'm afraid to visualize further.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:05 | 2691132 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Knowing what's going to happen and when it's going to happen are two different things. Though I'm expecting the crash and martial law in early October, give or take 2 weeks, and I've been saying so on here for nearly 2 years, I've also been prepared for it to happen any day for those 2 years. And I could still be wrong.

Complex systems break at an unexpected moment, even when the break is engineered.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:15 | 2690912 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

Look around douche. The average median wage and income for an american male peaked in 1970.  The DOW hasnt returned shit in over a decade. The american middle class has collapsed. Europe is imploding.  Just how stupid are you?

You see a temporary central bank induced market bubble and you think things are fine?  

You are a lemming.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:50 | 2691318 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

What in the world is your problem? You can read, but can't grasp the meaning? Which part are we even disagreeing on?

Before you start throwing insults at people I suggest you try to understand what they are saying first.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:26 | 2690674 veyron
veyron's picture

"we still tend to agree..."

 

You agree that Facebook was a buy at the IPO???

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:26 | 2690676 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

This 'administration' will not let anything happen until after the election. FED won't do anything either except secretly pump when they have to. Watch out for December!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:34 | 2690689 malikai
malikai's picture

Biderman isn't the only one who'se seeing downside to the S&P.

http://www.quantsig.net/img/indx_sp500.png

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:30 | 2690691 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Don't look down....

 

Baltic Dry Index falls 2.7% to 790 points

 


Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:37 | 2690721 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

They must have been increasing capacity again.

Don't you know - BDI going up = strong demand, down = increased capacity. There are no other factors at play.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:46 | 2690764 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

I understand that the Chinese near-shore merchant fleet has 'broken out' into international shipping and is wreaking havoc with cargo bids.  Which is in turn due to slack demand within the Chinese domestic shipping market, combined with the enhancements to the fleet from secondary (used) ship purchases in recent years.  'Better boats with less to float.'

 

But, best not to tell anyone.  I getcha :*).  Mum's the word mate! 

 

No one reads this blog since it's only in the top ten global financial blogs according to the Wall Street Journal, right?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:48 | 2690770 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

WSJ has become as meaningless as Barrons. All outsourced PR firms of corporate and the fed.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:10 | 2691389 XitSam
XitSam's picture

to Jim and EscKey, Baltic Dry is the price to ship goods, which is affected by supply and demand, not just of goods but transport.  Would it make more sense to know the tonnage shipped? Is that data available?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:44 | 2690749 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

weve long established news,earnings. mean nothing. the worse is the greener the indexes get. A dog covers its own shit doesnt it?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:52 | 2690799 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 

volatility, inc? Baltic Dry Index - Wikipedia

:>  On 20 May 2008, the index reached its record high level since its introduction in 1985, reaching 11,793 points. Half a year later, on 5 December 2008, the index had dropped by 94%, to 663 points, the lowest since 1986  <:

:> Though rebounding to 2000 on 7 October, by 3 February 2012, the index made a new multi-decade low of 647 on a continued glut of dry bulk carriers and decreases in orders of iron and coal. <:

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:32 | 2690703 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The 1981 Movie Rollover shows how it will happen.

 

9:37 minute Youtube video will open in new window so you don't lose your place here.

 

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:33 | 2690996 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

"Gold just hit 2,000!"

"By tonight that will be cheap."

 

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:32 | 2692154 malek
malek's picture

I bought it used.
Have to say while certain points in the movie are well taken, especially the suckering in of fresh money into already hopeless insolvent Ponzi or Martingale schemes, towards the end it's a ridiculous child's view of how things would roll out - just like "The China Syndrome."

Governments will shut down markets, stiff lenders (especially foreign ones like the Saudis in the film), assign prices by decree, and blame the whole mess on some straw man, long before everything completely implodes.

We were actually two or three steps away from that in September/October 2008.

Sat, 08/11/2012 - 09:25 | 2696863 GoingLoonie
GoingLoonie's picture

This clip is the nightmare I have been having for 3 years now.

I cannot believe someone filmed my nightmare!

Sat, 08/11/2012 - 09:25 | 2696864 GoingLoonie
GoingLoonie's picture

This clip is the nightmare I have been having for 3 years now.

I cannot believe someone filmed my nightmare!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:33 | 2690709 Eclipse89
Eclipse89's picture

No one is going to disagree with him, but in this crazy uber-polluted market taking one-way (shorts) bets is the brief path to insolvency.

Sound hedging is the only way not to lose the shirt and sleep better.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:51 | 2690716 fuu
fuu's picture

In late 2007 Goldman's prop desk was Trim Tabs biggest client and Charles sold them a minority stake to stay afloat. In April of 2012 GS sold their position back to Charles at a loss.

How much did they make trading against Biderman's other clients, readers, and ZH members who took him at face value?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:08 | 2690877 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

speaking of trim tabs, how do you keep that girlish waistline? 

calamari?

we love biderman b/c of that great studio backdrop;  can't wait for the Mission Accomplished  banner to appear on a barge there someday... 

...plus, people have made fortunes fading his calls, too...  so i consider him a pirate doing penance... 

with that electrical connection to the squididity, i may start calling him the oracle of alcatraz

 

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:21 | 2690947 fuu
fuu's picture

I eat a lot of fruit and work out when I can.

WAIT A MINUTE, "people have made fortunes fading his calls", oh NM, accent on "his".

gone gone gone she been gone so long she been gone gone gone so long

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:42 | 2690742 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Do you think he recommends one gold ounce bars for a lower premium, or do you think the mints that minted the coins we lost in various boating accidents will ask for them back?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:43 | 2690748 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Zerohedge commenters all have a stick up their ass. I should know.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:45 | 2690751 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

a big stick named reality

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:52 | 2690795 realtick
realtick's picture

"though timing the call is practically impossible"

Actually it's not. The recession officially began on the 1st with the ISM PMI sub-50 reading.

http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/08/alternate-readi...

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:59 | 2690814 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture


Biderman is one of a few who actually makes sense about macro.  But I disagree with him about FB, it is 100% scam, and I am perplexed as to why he is still blind to see it (there is definitely some irrational emotional attachment to this stock – maybe he just likes this Jewish kid and cannot accept that Zuck is an immature dreamer with unrealistic expectations who just simply got lucky).

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:18 | 2690927 GoingLoonie
GoingLoonie's picture

Or, Zuck is just an NSA shill assigned to build a massive data base.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:21 | 2690948 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

I agree Biderman has it right with his macro view, but totally wrong with FB.  Well he is right that if FB could monetarize its user base it would be a winner, the problem is, they CANT. It's impossible, any attempt to monetarize the userbase will alienate the same base.  FB doesnt hold the patent for their site or web socialization.  At anytime a new flavor of the month could and probably will eventually come in and take their place.

FB cannot monetarize and it is market position hangs by a bare thin wire of ( coolness factor).  Personally I dont see why any young new upcoming users want to use a social network that their moms and aunts use as well.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:42 | 2691492 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

I have three not in my real name FB accounts (only to access Scribd). I am sure there are many more accounts like these (nobody, not even FB knows how many); therefore, how can anyone value this company?

My prediction: in 2-3 years FB will be just another worthless MySpace.

 

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 09:56 | 2690817 madcows
madcows's picture

Too bad my 401(k) doesn't have a short fund to move my chips into.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:02 | 2690849 saycheeeese
saycheeeese's picture

where Biderman keeps his gold?  GLD

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:14 | 2690904 oddjob
oddjob's picture

He said 1 ounce bars. Invest 300 seconds of listening to it next time.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:34 | 2690998 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

BTW why 1 ounce bars? Does he recommend selling in small quantities at a time when it goes to overbought again?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:30 | 2691236 Vooter
Vooter's picture

Probably because smaller bars are less susceptible to counterfeiting...

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:16 | 2691410 ddtuttle
ddtuttle's picture

The best bars are "good delivery" 400 oz bars.  They can be moved, bought and sold without an assay. Of course, they have to managed by certified vaults and carriers.  Try selling anything else, and the buyer will ask "How do I know this isn't gold plated Tungsten?"  And of course, they don't have any way of knowing without an assay.  An assay can eat up a fair amount of your profit, and you have to assay every single 1 oz bar. If you use a vaulting company that is NOT a bank (who buy and sell gold), you pretty safe for the foreseeable future.  

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 13:56 | 2694666 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

I have no reason to believe I could get counterfeit bars from official dealers selling known brands. This sounds like nonsense to me.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 13:05 | 2691545 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

When you purchase larger bars, your timing has to be better because you're investing a larger portion of your available capital.  Dollar cost averaging allows one to enter into a position more safely.  I would imagine (since I would do it) that once one believes gold is overvalued they will exit the position the same way, but selling small and consistently.

There are those who would disagree with executing trades like this and state they will hold their gold until the end.  Me?  I've never been one to believe I'll know a top or bottom if it bit me in the butt.

I don't own gold, I own silver - but the same rules apply.

Just an opinion, do your own due dilligence.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 13:57 | 2694672 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Yes, this makes more sense to me.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:14 | 2690902 GoingLoonie
GoingLoonie's picture

Do not expect being short to be of much help.  

Within days of 9-11 I went short with everything I had.  Go back and look at the charts, the markets were hanging by a thread on the edge of a cliff.  (The extremely wealthy had to know what was coming.)  9-11 happened, but instead of making money the "Government" simply turned off the computers and honest shorts like myself never got to make money.  Same thing  happened with the TARP / Lehman Crisis.  The charts were screaming get short.  Remember Paulson stopping all trading and making shorts illegal at 2 AM in the moring?  Again, by looking at charts I was short with every penny I could muster at the criticle moment.  My wife and I should have been made a 10+ millionaire overnight-but instead the "Government" simply turned off the switch and allowed every establishment to renege on their obligations.  We lost about $20,000 over the weeks as we tried to get out.  This is not a free market.

Go short if you would like, but, I can verify that the system is so broken that being short will not help.  You can go back and view the charts, even check the leveraged shorts.  Unless you can trade at 2 AM worldwide you are not going to make money.  All the markets are rigged to keep the wealthy, wealthy.  The "Government" is in the business of picking winners.

Only being out of the paper system and in Gold will lend any security or chance at maintaining value.

They fooled me twice.  I will not go back untill someone goes to jail.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:19 | 2691431 poydras
poydras's picture

When you write the script you can make anything happen.  The financial system is man-made fiction.  Best to remember that.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 13:42 | 2691634 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

You need to buy long duration puts rather than directly shorting the underlying stock.   Then, your maximum Loss is pre-defined by your premium.  Controlling loss via position sizing and diversity is the key thing in this big casino.  I did this with ANR, FSLR, FB, ZNGA, GRPN and X.  I've already taken profits on all of these while rolling them down in strike price and out in duration.  That way if they go lower (say to zero) I can continue to profit but if I'm wrong (and I am all the time like all traders) I know what my loss will be-and my initial cost is now sitting in my soon-to-be-worthless fiat MM account.  (Hey, you're correct that its just a silly game where only the brokers benefit via fees)  An example is FSLR, which recently had a large gap up overnight due to "great" earnings.  If I had been directly short I would have taken large losses and needed to cover.   A similar thing happed with my BBY puts on a buy out rumor.  I would have had to cover on a direct short, but with Nov 20 puts, I'll just sit tight until this one tanks like RSH (which I was also shorting synthetically using puts earlier in the year)-once the rumor turns out to be BS.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:15 | 2690910 dcb
dcb's picture

hey at least the guy makes calls, which I think is good. I can also understand why he went short when he did, I just don't think he did his charting correctly. but I usually never position myself 100 percent one way or another unless it is rather clear, I set the computer to do what it does, and then have stops, so if something turns on me, I am now long instead of short, and have taken profits down side

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:34 | 2691008 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Why does he insist on publically humiliating himself?  and he's been at it for years.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:28 | 2691230 Vooter
Vooter's picture

Because he's got tons of money and doesn't care what you or anyone else thinks...

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:44 | 2691048 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Market drop is likely.  SP500 is technically diverged and wave count shows much downside.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/standard-poors-500-daily-august-08-2012/

 

Interested parties who keep the buying pressure on are running out of rope.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:03 | 2691129 bobbydelgreco
bobbydelgreco's picture

in the end it will collapse because it is not a ponzi it is a pyramid which means more & more money has to be put in for it to stand; look at a pyramid's base; but it can go on a long long time especially with ben printing the money; the day will come when ben loses and charles wins but it is not today; as an aside money making in google & fb is adevertising & nothing else; i see no evidence that fb knows how to do this; another aside in the real world i am one of those guys giving lots & lots of money to google & nothing to fb 

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:34 | 2691178 hannah
hannah's picture

biderman......so you are short. i agree that everything is fake and the s&p should be at 500 but......if you think that you are going to win when the market collapses and actually exchange your electronic 'cash' for real cash when every bank in the usa and probably world has frozen,,,?!?!?! dude...when the end 'comes in one day' i promised your assets will be huge on paper (on the computer screen) but you will never access that wealth.

 

***oh and biderman...both of my cats have a facebook page which should tell you how important those 'billion' accounts are....

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:24 | 2691179 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I went to a liberal arts school....and *I* would of told Biderman before the $FB shares came out to NOT buy the shit. 

The only thing propping it up is the fact the NSA and their lust for people information mining is a huge business for the government, and Facebook takes advantage of the fact that people use the site basically as a huge photo album....and that the lifespans of these types of social networking sites only last on average 5-7 years. 

Granted, FB through its Harvard connections (aka corporate connections) has enabled itself for more growth through various sectors (for example, FB pages for businesses).....but it still doesn't mean its going to grow as a profitable business, even with them adding gambling in markets like the UK.  It will be a sustainable site (like this one), just not profitable (hence why, you shouldn't buy its shares).

In a sense, Biderman is contradicting himself.  He has long said he's bullish on the DOW, Governments, and Consumer Spending due to stagnating wage growth.  I agree with those fundamentals.  Mostly because I live through these crappy economic conditions (unlike Mr. Biderman, whose net worth will probably be infinitely better than mine).  Mr. Biderman was, I believe, a former analyst of retail stocks....so he knows how important wage growth is to a consumerist economy.  My wages are stagnant and not keeping up with true inflation.  He sees this in the numbers, and he's correct because amongst me and my peers, I FEEL THEM.

However, if he says that stocks, like in 1999, can crash and burn tomorrow - which I agree with due  to the fact the system is built on the fragility of fraud - how in the hell could he buy ANY stocks related to the real business economy with this view.....and a shoddy business model in Facebook, at that? 

Doesn't he understand that if the DOW were to lose 50% of its share, that would lead to MASS layoffs on an already weary and suspect populace.  This will result in civil unrest, and unlike in the UK, the Pentagon will cut off the internet faster that Lorena Bobbit at a urologist's office (b/c they learned from the UK that anarchists use text messaging and twitter fuels riots).

Therefore no internet = no Facebook.  Anticipating this, if *I* were an investor preparing for this (as I am a concerned citizen preparing for this buy hoarding medicine, water, seed, bullets, and ammo), I would buy commodities that benefit from civil uincertainty - commodities like Gold, Oil, Silver, and other life essential assets.

But logic is I guess the reason I am broke...and he's a millionaire.

 

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:31 | 2691241 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

charles, thanks for the update. i always enjoy hearing your perspective. the background shot is nice, too. looks peaceful.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:38 | 2691262 TJ00
TJ00's picture

I give Biderman kudos as he a) answers critics like here on ZH and b) is willing to admit his losses and  these seem to be rare qualities these days.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:49 | 2691317 tok1
tok1's picture

The fact he said to go short seems to be no
issue.. It's that he said 100% ( so he mortgaged
his house). Also to later then say actually I was long
stocks ( mm I thought you were 100% short )
and then mention you have a friend that's rich
means he is a light weight.

That said the price action on sp above 1400 looks like
a short term top is coming .. Also FED buys
bonds not stocks .. I suspect bill gross type funds
have been reducing but in the end fed twist buying is large
So fed ect might be happy to see stocks ease up
to put a bid back in treasuries

Make no mistake fed focus is to keep US govt
borrowing cost low to keep lights on stocks are secondary.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 17:51 | 2692304 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

"So fed ect might be happy to see stocks ease up

to put a bid back in treasuries

Make no mistake fed focus is to keep US govt
borrowing cost low to keep lights on stocks are secondary."

Both backs are being scratched here.  QE = both stocks and bonds go up.  Dollar devaluation increases the nominal dollar price of everything.  Note the abnormal lift since early 2009 in the SPY/TLT pair.  Yes, this does mean that both can go down simultaneously, and go down harder than a freebasing prostitute.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:14 | 2691407 poydras
poydras's picture

I suggest focusing on the main macro issue - The end of the Great Extend and Pretend is near.  The global responses to date do indeed risk a complete financial system freeze.  I suspect the result is a global government takeover of the financial system with internal and external capital controls.

Timing this event seems to be a fool's errand.  The US response seems quite predictable at this point.  The Fed will buy whatever they need to buy to support asset prices and contain finacial system collapse.  As a result, I predict up to an 80% decline in USD purchasing power within the next 10 years.  This prediction is consistent with the two past money printing decades.  The most recent period was the '70s where a 50% decline occurred.

The power to print and tax is ultimately almost as powerful as regulating your supply of oxygen.

 

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:40 | 2692174 malek
malek's picture

The Extend and Pretend phase ended already, I'd say sometime early this year.

Now we're in the Delay and Pray phase.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:37 | 2691478 Linus2011
Linus2011's picture

i am 50% in gold and silver and was sure that fazebook will go down 50% min.

does that mean i am smarter than "famous" biderman?

so why should i pay for his newsletter?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:55 | 2691525 onebir
onebir's picture

Assessment of Biderman's record here:

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/2721/individual-gurus/charles-biderman/

(48% = not bad; they only gave Jeremy Grantham 49...)

Edit: oops - the gave Grantham 48 too:

http://cdn.cxoadvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/guru-grades.gif

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 13:09 | 2691558 Bail0ut
Bail0ut's picture

just to put in in contect FB was a 1% position for Biderman but its metioned in 50% of the posts here

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 13:16 | 2691577 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

To add insult to injury, Facebook is not a fan of the weed:

http://justsaynow.firedoglake.com/2012/08/09/jon-walker-on-radical-russ-discuss-facebooks-war-on-weed/

Considering most of their consitutiency, and future customer base, are people under 30 who have a 60/40 favorability of weed (38/62 for those over 45).....they MIGHT wanna fix that before we go into "boycott" territory.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 00:29 | 2693161 Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

i like biederman, he aint a bad guy, there are plenty of people out here willing to fuck you in the ass and not make a funny video.

ok the fb call, i dont mean to be rude, but the guy aint exactly young and without the insight of how kids use and work fb WHICH 99% OF ANALYSTS dont have, its not hard to get confused and think heh might be a good one?

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 22:03 | 2722396 serema
serema's picture

nside the cheap prom dresses wedding, but also within the celebration. It doesn't matter what color of your skin, you are able to try white celebration wedding dresses for juniors.White party wedding dresses for juniors come into different length, such as brief, tea length, knee length and so on. Distinct lengths are suitable for

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!