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Biderman Sees Post-Facebook Euphoria Rally Fading Quickly To Dysphoria

Tyler Durden's picture


Supply and Demand are what drive share prices in the stock market and Chrales Biderman of TrimTabs takes to task the plethora of complicating factors that are run in front of our eyes day after day on why we should be buying stocks. While he is short-term bullish, expecting a 2-3% jolt to stocks on post-Facebook IPO euphoria (as selling positions to fund the IPO allocation will fade), he remains medium-term bearish with an eye for being short stocks and long gold. His discussion of Stock Trading 101 is noteworthy and fits somewhat with our incessant annoyance at the money-on-the-sidelines ignorance that remains among so-called professionals who seem to remain ignorant of the closed-loop nature of buyers and sellers in the financial markets - leaving the important driver of market movements not earnings or macro-data explicitly but the buybacks (or lack thereof) of corporations (and money flow). An interesting alternate perspective.


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Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:07 | 2433988 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Buy why would private banks and MSM try to convince people to part with their money?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:15 | 2434008 SilverTree
Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:30 | 2434030 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

To justify the tag (hah), someone calculated the "Price" per FB user, it was some hilarious figure.

I can imagine all those phantom accounts clicking many many adz. It's going to be quite somethign to watch and see how long they can keep this charade going.

I mean, c'mon GROPEON just declared a profitable quarter. What are you going to do/say about that, eh? Eh?

If Gropeon and Linkedin Can, surely, surely FB can too.

Internet 2.0. Yeah!



Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:40 | 2434062 CharlieSDT
CharlieSDT's picture

I can't wait to buy puts on this garbage valuation.  On a long enough timeline Facebook is a piece of shit investment.



Thu, 05/17/2012 - 00:24 | 2434129 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

I think we're

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 00:31 | 2434148 CharlieSDT
CharlieSDT's picture

Last year Facebook had $3.8 billion in revenue, not profit, just revenue. We don’t know how profitable Facebook is because it’s a private company. Let’s say Facebook’s executive team is absolutely stellar and they have even better margins than Google with 27.5% (Google achieved 25.7% profit margin in 2011). That would mean they earned $1.045 billion in profit which would imply a P/E ratio of 95.7 and a return of only a little over 1% on your investment.  That's a pretty bad investment which does not begin to keep pace with inflation.


But of course on Friday, there will be a mass IPO hysteria and all sorts of retards will bid the stock up to ridiculous levels, and yes, Facebook will reach and probably exceed that 100 billion valuation. Then I will wait impatiently for a week or two for people to write some puts. On a long enough timeline, I guarantee you, Facebook is a losing investment and I can’t wait to take the other side of that bet.



Thu, 05/17/2012 - 01:54 | 2434247 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Facebook actually frightens me. 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 02:02 | 2434254 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

From the larger perspective, Facebook is Frightening. More than Goog too because here it's ALL personal.


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 03:31 | 2434325 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It actually is. They need the revenue and all they have is all your personal data. Ethics will crumble.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 04:01 | 2434351 GenXer
GenXer's picture


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 04:40 | 2434380 Element
Element's picture

This song sums it up:

Joe Jackson - Jack you're dead!


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:14 | 2434627 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

FB IPO is not meant to make sense or make money (well not for investors).....it is meant to be another means to support the .gov...this time of California. The huge IPO will bring in much needed revenues to Cali.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 00:08 | 2438460 JackT
JackT's picture

Facebook Failing is a threat to National Security.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 07:32 | 2434551 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

Gender dysphoria can be treated by buying FaceBook shares;  Is that what you are saying?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:47 | 2434081 pleseus
pleseus's picture

Facebook is a fad that will fade.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 00:33 | 2434151 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 05:14 | 2434409 franzpick
franzpick's picture


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 05:52 | 2434431 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:49 | 2436637 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 00:09 | 2434113 Blammo
Blammo's picture

Buy Zuckheads company on the fucking dip


Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:41 | 2434067 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

"Where there is smoke, there is FIRE!"

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 00:35 | 2434160 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Karma's an MF bitch

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 02:37 | 2434290 xtop23
xtop23's picture

There's more where that came from. I think we are far from seeing how deep this rabbit hole is.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:28 | 2434039 phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

How the fuck is facebook worth $125 Billion?

Are these idiots smoking crack or just trying to fuelth e next tech bubble? 

God please, sombody stop the world I wanna get off now... 


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 00:24 | 2434130 candyman
candyman's picture

you will make your millon buying puts

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 04:12 | 2434364 Unique Snowflake
Unique Snowflake's picture

“The junk merchant doesn't sell his product to the consumer, he sells the consumer to his product. He does not improve and simplify his merchandise. He degrades and simplifies the client.”

The visionary William Burroughs.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:10 | 2433990 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

My wife saw someone get a 9k cash advance to buy this shit. This is going to be a massacre for retail smucks.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:09 | 2433993 Banksters
Banksters's picture

Facebook sucks.  People who pretend to have 394003 friends are full tilt retards.    


When people realize that they spent 50 percent of their leisure time jackin it to porn and facebook, they'll probably need more psych meds.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:11 | 2433996 spooncutter
spooncutter's picture

i foresee a facebook/youporn merger

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:17 | 2434011 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

you meant: grouporn not to be confused with groupon, yet another vapor-co¿

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:18 | 2434015 Solarman
Solarman's picture


Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:44 | 2434073 PersonalRespons...
PersonalResponsibility's picture


Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:10 | 2433994 Manthong
Manthong's picture

A number of us called it a while ago.. the IPO and follow-up has a chance of being “Iconic” in a not so good way.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 01:45 | 2434239 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Iconic to Ironic in three easy steps?


Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:12 | 2434002 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

So, FB = Strong Buy..??

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:15 | 2434004 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Where the fuck is the growth going to come from? It's already used by anyone who WANTS to use it. Everybody else hates the fucking thing. There ain't a person with a connection to the internet who hasn't heard of it. If they haven't been able to capitalize on advertising by now, going public isn't going to help.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:46 | 2434076 PersonalRespons...
PersonalResponsibility's picture

So simple

So true

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:41 | 2434721 PivotalTrades
PivotalTrades's picture

Now you know why insiders are selling!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:13 | 2434005 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

I've been there an back, what else is thier to say?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:15 | 2434010 wretch
wretch's picture

Biderman in his jammies already?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:17 | 2434013 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Too funny. Just creating my post on this subject.. Nice job Tyler.


Biderman’s Daily Edge 5/16/2012: Why Stocks Could Rally but Only for Short Term 

Global systemic crisis / Second half of 2012 – Convergence of four explosive factors: Banks-Stock Exchanges-Pensions-Debts 

I’m giving my FB stock purchase 3-5 days.  Using Ghostery & Abine blocks me from the stupidity of their goal. When the stock bag holders beg for more revenues, Fuckface will sell private data to violate their customer privacy agreement. Poof goes the weasel.


Enjoy the ride..

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 01:59 | 2434251 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Fuckface will sell private data to violate their customer privacy agreement.

Actually the goverment already has a way into the back end.  All those privacy concerns went out the window a long time ago.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:17 | 2434014 chump666
chump666's picture

and it remains to be seen if the Fed can plug the liquidity hole if a China meltdown is on, and it looks like it's on:

0223 GMT [Dow Jones] "We are watching very closely if the bumpy landing is turning into a hard one," Societe Generale says,

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:18 | 2434016 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

I have yet to log on to that stupid ass website. I laugh my ass off at the losers who actually talk about what they posted on facebook as if it was actually funny and interesting or relevent.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:31 | 2434046 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

Facebook gets me laid

You can find old high school girlfriends and fuck them. It is worth it just for that alone. I got to fuck my first high school girlfriend for the first time. Waited 34 years for that. Working on my second high school girlfriend. She is married but i dont care

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:35 | 2434051 Yohimbo
Yohimbo's picture

thats how a real asshole rolls

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:40 | 2434065 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

Hehe. If you quit giving it to your wife cuz you lost ur sex drive yes indeed an asshole like me is gonna come along and give her the attention and compliments and affection she deserves.

I am surprised how often it is the guy who loses interest in sex. Just dont be surprised by the consequences

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:47 | 2434079 Yohimbo
Yohimbo's picture

Heh, bitches looking for random dick, facebook and morally bankrupt plumbing jigalos

yep this country is going to last another 1000 years.


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