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Biderman Short Of Euros In Gold Terms
Reiterating his earlier year call to dollar-cost-average into long Gold via GLD and short Euro (FXE) , Charles Biderman of TrimTabs suggests that while the sell-off in stocks may have begun, he does not expect it to pick up steam until after April. His thesis for being long Gold remains the same, the US, Europe, and Japan continue to create ever-increasing amounts of paper-money with which they pay bills - and that is not going to end soon. EM central banks will continue to load up on gold in reserves with an endgame of replacing USD reserve status quo. His short Euro thesis has, in his view, become more prescient as the European recession grows deeper and the EUR drifts towards parity with the USD (whether or not the Fed 'allows' it). He ends with a noteworthy comment on the removal of safe-haven status for common carry currencies such as NZD, AUD, and CAD due to crumbling housing fundamentals.
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Incredible - GLD? - WTF!
Physical and NOTHING else!
Hedge???: Short GLD & long Physical
You took the words right out of my mouth. Here we have an investment professional who half gets it. He's long gold but then advises buying the paper exposure, likely with no metal behind it, instead of the metal? Duh.
Buy silver, it's on sale now!!!
-John
Get Connected to Nature
http://blog.heartrootnatureconnection.com/2012/04/12/20120403.aspx?results=1#SurveyResultsChart
Perhaps silver rather than gold. I see more and more evidence that US economy bottomed and interest rates may start going up.
That may be related to rising inflation. And that where the real danger lies: The US may have limited capacity to raise rates
due to proportionally growing interest payments on the huge debt. In this scenario, gold and stocks may go down (not to mention
long term US treasury). Though Gold may rebound if Dollar crashes assuming finally the mantle of ultimate safe-haven. On the contrary, Canadian Dollar, Aussi and NZ may do very well (they have much better capacities to raise rates). I also favor Sing Dollar and Swiss franc (which will be forced to depeg euro). In this scenario Gary Schilling will finally prove to be wrong (though everybody understands that eventually he will).
What's the problem of having fiats go after both physical AND paper? Why would he hate the idea of preaching his own book?
Don't hate so hard on GLD or SLV. For those of us who have money tied up in IRA's and such, they are much more attractive options than keeping the money in cash, where it is worth less and less each day. Obviously physical is preferable but it is not always tenable.
just buy way OTM puts for cheap in case these fake etfs take a shit like tvix did
What a clever idea to throw away your money on "cheap" puts that will never be exercised in order to "protect" yourself from an internet fantasy that doesn't exist as a problem in the first place. Gee, I wish I was as smart as you are.
How's your job going with MF Global there champ?
Bullionvault.com, based in London, England; holds real silver bullion in the vault and is authorized as an IRA entity. You can read all about it on your computer. It's unique; it's not an ETF; it's just an online store that sells you a deposit certificate for the Silver, (which of course is much more desirable than Gold).
Hedge???: Short GLD
I don't know about that. GLD is probably safe till gold gets near 3K and people start really wondering about the underlying physical. Until then it's coupled. Physical is still best, but there's plenty of money to be made in paper gold on the swings.
You realize that is an oxymoron right?
Think it through.
I hold my phys in the form of jewlry.
Well thought through indeed.
Biderman always looks like he just came off a nice steak and a bottle of wine and needs a nap.
It's probably the joint he just smoked.
He was the guy who first saw that the fed et al were buying stocks.
I will be starting my stock picks of the week next month. Cost is $9.99 per week or $700 for the year. Your choice. :-P
But but but house prices can only go up. Everybody knows that! There's NEVER a bubble in housing markets! Just ask Ben if ya don't believe me!
Remember these words of bottomless wisdom?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/26/AR200510...
Weird, because house prices are still going up in Canada, he may want to hold that breath a little longer.
Note, I live in Edmonton and my house is for sale....I'm scared shittless......
Everyone around me thinks I am an idiot for selling, so that contrarian indicator gives me some relief.
Mark,
If you sell anything and make a profit, you are far from being an idiot.
Idiots are those who buy at or near the top, or fail to sell after the bubble bursts.
Sell and bank the money, and wait.
I live in Canada and I don't see house prices crumbling. Holding steady or up slightly since last year.
If the Fed bought $3 Trillion of Gold instead of crap MBS paper how good would we feal about their balance sheet?
Pretty Good !. Too bad they don't like the idea.
Fed prints money, buys gold. Happy days.
The GFC started in the US and infected Europe, now the sovereign debt problems in Europe could infect the US and the rest of the world. This may very well become a GCC (global currency crisis) and I wouldn't have much trust in the US economy or the the dollar either.
On what basis are NZ Housing fundamentals crumbling? I read first thing this morning the whole country's house prices have started surging at best rate since 2008.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1079...
same in Canada prices are in the stratosphere and credit is flowing readily with low low rates
debt levels are gigantic but the other side of the equation is carrying costs, which are low
the thing will blow apart when interest rates jump significantly
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-hot-canadi...
the thing will blow apart when interest rates jump significantly
*********
The US housing crash happened with low rates-
Buying exhaustion was the trigger-i expect the same will happen in Canada-
A bubble will continue until the pool of greater fools dries up-
in large part the US crash happened when fools borrowed beyond their ability to service their monthly payments and fools lent to people who were not credit worthy, moreover when unemployment spiked things that much worse
not the case in Canada - just huge consumer debt that at current rates can be serviced
housing inventory is low, foreign buyers numerous etc
but when it blows it will be beyond ugly
in large part the US crash happened when fools borrowed beyond their ability to service their monthly payments and fools lent to people who were not credit worthy, moreover when unemployment spiked things that much worse
***************
Not true-the housing market tipped over first-
***************
not the case in Canada - just huge consumer debt that at current rates can be serviced
***********
Not if-when the housing bubble pops unemployment will spike and people will start selling houses-with no buyers
http://bit.ly/IJLu3V
The Canadian government requires that buyers only pay 5 percent down payments although this rule is not enforced. However, for buyers who do not have 5 percent, the 6 major banks offer no down payment mortgages or cash back mortgages where they loan the buyer the 5 percent down payment, offering 100 percent financing. The banks also give mortgages to the self-employed and new immigrants without verifying income.
http://canadabubble.com/bubble-watch/2328-canadas-dirty-little-sub-prime...
http://bit.ly/IJLu3V
Don't be fooled by the bullshit, retail sectors are hurting everywhere, what sells first, are the more expensive homes, which lifts up "average house value" even though many might be selling <25% lower than their peak in 2007.
Your herald article quoted "Auckland house values have soared past the 2007 peak" but latter quoted only a "2.2 per cent above the 2007 peak". That soaring rise would have easily been wiped from ones years worth of inflation, subtract 5 years inflation and we already looking at a grim loss. Those losses will guarantee withdrawal of superannuation investments from the property market. To offset those investment losses, NZ like Australia has eased foreign ownership!. Yes, government and their media will try everything to keep the bubble from collapsing, even if they have to sell the farm oversea's.
So long gold, short that sorry as currency Euro and sell in May and go away?
How original.
When do we get Tyler Durden videos? I want ZH TV.
+1.
I´d love to see interviews by the Tylers. In a Tyler Durden-mask of course.
http://yearofmagicalpainting.blogspot.ca/2009/01/this-will-make-you-smil...
Canada real estate is nuts, but it was nuts fifty perecent ago
their MLS system has opened up for competition reasons - if you want to see insanity live check out the interactive map and see what you can find for <$500,000
http://www.realtor.ca/Disclaimer.aspx?t=~%2fmap.aspx%3f%26vs%3dVEResiden...
Get your hot Gold tips. Only $9.99 per week.
I'm no psychologist but I think he ate a big lunch before making this recording.
Other then funds that are locked up (IRA, 401ks, etc) the idea of GLD or SLV is a little bit crazy. Why does he bother about the BLS numbers? They are complete BS anyway, regardless of how they "calculate" them. Hes too wrapped in the current system to see the paradigm shift that will be forced down all of our throats. Buy physical and as much as you can, I do agree with the DCA approach to accumulation - always smart.
I guess he helps some peopl that don't really have time or the energy to find this out on their own, that's probably bad given what many believe is coming to the global financial systems/economies/currencies.
For those that are contributing to USD based assets (matching, tax deferrment) start to think about moving out and into other assets - at least some of your worth. The next big crash will likely be the last for the dollar - certainly as the worlds reserve currency. Anyway, if things shit the bed as many (including myself) believe they will - you will be at the mercy of a desperate gubmint where their LAST place to get money is where? You got it, your savings replaced by Treasur Bills backed by a currency that is worthless - good luck with that.
Seriously, think about it. Precious metals are incredibly LOW thanks to the Fed and the other CBs so buying now is almost like buying at a discount (certainly Silver). Gold is close to fairly priced at 1670 based on the money supply, that won't last long as the printers WILL be fired up once again AND they'll have to print WAY, WAY more - likely to DOUBLE the supply taking Gold to easily $3000.
The Bull market is just starting in Precious Metals...All on board.
Very un-impressive article; perfectly attuned to the general internet blog ignorance.
Biderman is a Zionist.. and does NOT like Free Speech... He does Love FaceBook!! hint hint!
Crumbling home prices in NZ - I think not. From QV NZ "National property values rose 0.5 per cent in the three months ended March 31, slowing from the 1.1 per cent gain over the rolling three-month period through February, QV said. Values are 3 per cent higher than a year ago, and are 3 per cent below the market peak in late 2007." Sometimes, you have to get your facts right before spouting crap.
QV = Quotable Value, NZ's national house price database.
There are currently no crumbling housing prices in Canada.What's he talking about?A bunch of nonsense.Mortage standards are very strict in Canada.The housing market is healthy in Vancouver,Calgary,Edmonton,Regina,Winnipeg,Ottawa,Toronto,Montreal.Slow in the Maritmes but healthy in Halifax and St.John's.This guy doesn't know what he's talking about.
I've never believed that AUD (or NZD, CAD) is a safe haven. Its just the currency de jour supported by China's growth and hence 6% overnight interest rates (http://www.ubank.com.au/ub/web/home). When SHTF, the USD and CHF get bid, period. Or put another way, take out the only vestige of growth in the global economy (China) and the illusion of AUD safety will go.
I think he's FORECASTING a drop in housing in NZ, Au and Ca, not commenting on growth rates LTM.
There has been a veritable mob of seppo prognosticators (Chanos, Grantham, Mish) calling down Aussie housing for a good few years now. If a crash is coming, better to be a year early than a day late but personally I'd like to see some acknowledgement of why they have missed the mark in the past before beating the same drums ad nauseum. Knowing something about these matters myself, and living in Sydney, they key is employment. For a sustained drop I'd say you'd need unemployment to be >8% (now 5.3%) since tight credit conditions alone and normal frictional movements in the labour markets will not push enough inventory on to the market. There is a certain amount of undersupply and most renters who may become buyers seem bullish housing (not shared shitless) so these groups are likely to soak up moderate amounts of inventory. Definately not saying a big drop couldn't occur, a few things need to happen first.
On a slightly different note, OTM puts on big 4 Aussie banks are very cheap. Plenty of money to be made when the 'crash' occurs, but in my opinion .... don't hold your breath.
Edstar, correct, but no the full story. But also, bank LTV ratios getting tighter, and household expenses have eaten the fat out of discretionary dollars despite full employment. Lotta people hurting now and barely hanging on to property. Lotta investors now thinking the market has bottomed and are gearing up. It will take a repeated battering for it to be recognised that this is not a temporary dip in property prices.
US has the highest share of median-to-low wages employees in low wage work
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2012/04/the-us-has-the-...
But hey, the consumers will just keep spending. Why not?