Biderman Vs. Spiderman (Towels)
Despite the failure of the generous offer of Spiderman towels from the recently 'stress-test'-proof-but-now-busted Bankia, today's market suggests there is still hope. The public estimate of loan losses for Spanish banks stands around EUR225 billion (EUR 125bn known and an additional EUR100bn estimated) which, as Charles Biderman of TrimTabs notes "is so big as to be practically unsolvable" as he details the total and utter lack of trust of Spain and Spanish banks that is spreading not just across Europe but around the world. The installation of six of the largest global consulting firms (and the IMF) to begin audits of the Spanish banks, as Reuters reports today, should tell everyone (especially those who bid them up 7-10% today) just how terrible the situation is. Biderman begins to go ultrasonic as he expects real losses for Spain to be in excess of EUR300 billion and this is just Spain! Who knows how big the losses are for the rest of Europe? He does not believe Germany, or anyone else, will put up the EUR300 billion for Spain (or a trillion for the rest of Europe) and sees at best a 50% chance that the entire Euro banking system will go down leaving a much smaller Euro-zone behind (and a 25% chance of a non-panic mode restructuring).