• BullionStar
    05/30/2016 - 21:24
    The US Gold Market is best known as the home of gold futures trading on the COMEX in New York. The COMEX has a literal monopoly on gold futures trading volumes worldwide, but very little physical...

Biderman Vs. Spiderman (Towels)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Despite the failure of the generous offer of Spiderman towels from the recently 'stress-test'-proof-but-now-busted Bankia, today's market suggests there is still hope. The public estimate of loan losses for Spanish banks stands around EUR225 billion (EUR 125bn known and an additional EUR100bn estimated) which, as Charles Biderman of TrimTabs notes "is so big as to be practically unsolvable" as he details the total and utter lack of trust of Spain and Spanish banks that is spreading not just across Europe but around the world. The installation of six of the largest global consulting firms (and the IMF) to begin audits of the Spanish banks, as Reuters reports today, should tell everyone (especially those who bid them up 7-10% today) just how terrible the situation is. Biderman begins to go ultrasonic as he expects real losses for Spain to be in excess of EUR300 billion and this is just Spain! Who knows how big the losses are for the rest of Europe? He does not believe Germany, or anyone else, will put up the EUR300 billion for Spain (or a trillion for the rest of Europe) and sees at best a 50% chance that the entire Euro banking system will go down leaving a much smaller Euro-zone behind (and a 25% chance of a non-panic mode restructuring).

 

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Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:32 | 2501113 resurger
resurger's picture

Situation Normal All Fucked Up

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:38 | 2501141 Ag1761
Ag1761's picture

BOHICA

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:51 | 2501184 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

You know, I bet that when we're all on a gold standard, that Bankia Spiderman towel is going to be a sought-after collectible.  

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:55 | 2501202 flacon
flacon's picture

Believe it or not, you might be right. Zimbabwe dollars are still in demand. In fact, I want one of those $100,000,000,000,000 to keep to show my kids what a F'd up society they were born into. 

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 18:22 | 2501263 Knobbius
Knobbius's picture

I've got a few 100T Zimbabwe dollars.  They're actually not a bad looking banknote.  Ironically, they are worth far more as curios than they were as monetary instruments.  I think they go 6 or 7 bucks apiece, check amazon....

 

Cheers!

 

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 20:02 | 2501520 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

when he can't talk about how bad things are without cracking up you know we're in some real shit.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 19:10 | 2501370 MayerRothschild
MayerRothschild's picture

You can get them on eBay pretty cheap

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 00:38 | 2502260 XitSam
XitSam's picture

Hmm, could the Zim government still be printing and selling them on eBay as novelties? Exporting your own dead currency as a revenue stream.  But continued printing would, as we know, drive the price down requiring the printing of a new, higher demonination note. 

Edit: Wasn't there a short story, Mark Twain maybe, where a couple artists faked the death of one, because art prices go up after the artist dies, yet he kept painting and generating income after his "death"?

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:53 | 2501193 flacon
flacon's picture

Free gold for your deposit of e300

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 18:07 | 2501224 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

All Hail Discordia!

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 19:49 | 2501497 Blotsky
Blotsky's picture

FUBAR.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 23:59 | 2502175 financial apoca...
financial apocalyptic contagion's picture

SUSFU

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:34 | 2501127 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Anyone see Jim Grant on CNBS before? Awesome interview

 

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:39 | 2501146 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

He cracks himself up....

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:40 | 2501154 BandGap
BandGap's picture

He's laughing because, really, there's zero logic being used anymore. I started laughing with him.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:55 | 2501201 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

I started laughing too but thought it was from a couple of hits I just took.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 19:52 | 2501503 TJ00
TJ00's picture

I think he is laughing because either you laugh at the insanity or you get depressed and suicidal over it, laughing at it is much better, but remember to laugh after you're prepped.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 21:36 | 2501836 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Hes laughing because its the only thing left he and we can do...

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:39 | 2501148 BandGap
BandGap's picture

I love me a Biderman

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:45 | 2501172 Killer the Buzzard
Killer the Buzzard's picture

Massive man-crush on Biderman.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:47 | 2501176 LeisureSmith
LeisureSmith's picture

The Euro really do not look healthy at all.Terminal.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/79201873@N08/7315995308/in/photostream

Junkies tend to over do things.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:49 | 2501181 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Well...what a day.  What to say?  Seriously, markets are so fucked up at this point, it is hard to watch...even though this time...this time, the market carried my longs to brilliant finishes.  Good grief.

I go back to fundamentals that matter.  They are the same two I have been posting for months now.

First up, Ceridian.  Indeed, it posted a gain, but if you report to the below link, you will see what your trillions of bailout dollars have bought you in real economic terms.  Note the highs we experienced prior to collapse...and then the meager levels we are at now:

http://www.ceridianindex.com/index.php

Second up, demand for gasoline.  If there ever was a truth detector on this completely bullshit market and the desperate powers that be all engaged in QEing their way to salvation, this chart marks the sheer level of non economic activity currently going on in the US economy.  You cannot lie your way out of this fundamental fact.  As the chart clearly shows, for all of your wasted green backs, there is no fucking recovery at all:

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=A103600001&f=M

As an aside, a big FUCK YOU to Guy Adami of the Nanosecond [sooon to be unemployed] Money Crew...whose trading range on the S&P...short term now...is 150 points wide [or 1205-1350].  Nice.  Way to win the BlowHorn [CNBC] fucking idiot of the week award.

Good luck out there.  We are clearly in the hands of idiots...no matter which way you turn.  Thank God for ZH.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 18:15 | 2501244 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Hey, thanks, that was good.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 19:18 | 2501401 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

Thanks for the chart on gasoline consumption.

 

Once again, this is why you read ZH everyday - there is always someone out there with some niche knowledge that you can use to better understand what is happening, and why.

-30-

 

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 19:28 | 2501432 gjp
gjp's picture

I don't know, there is something wrong with that chart.  I've seen lots of indications that demand is down this year, but nothing like a 50% drop in the last five years, after no growth for the previous 30, even as population and economy grew and we went from compact cars to SUVs.  That chart doesn't comport with reality ... maybe something about imports or some other non-refiner sector filling the gap?

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 19:46 | 2501488 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Ummm...imports?  The chart is of GALLONS of gas delivered by refineries to domestic gas stations.  Pretty simple.

What this chart is revealing is the true unemployment rate currently being masked  by our brave central planners in DC via the BLS.  The Ceridian index is about to confirm the gasoline lack of demand story, as less and less merchandise is shipped cross country.

Deal with it.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 19:58 | 2501514 machineh
machineh's picture

Then we need to look at total retail sales of gasoline, including imports, for a true picture.

Excluding gasoline imports is the same trick the BLS uses to exclude 'discouraged workers' from the unemployment calcuation.

Hey, you're not from the BLS, are you?

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 20:17 | 2501571 Cdad
Cdad's picture

http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_gasoline.html

In regards to your import query, the survey says, "blip."

Nice try.  However, there is no need to confuse supply with demand...as in the new economy, supply and demand, as well as price, having nothing to do with one another.  Sales is the original chart I linked you to.  Sales is pretty definitive, don't you think?

Again, deal with it.

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 00:37 | 2502267 Knobbius
Knobbius's picture

Actually, the label on the Chart says "U.S. Total Gasoline Retail Sales by Refiners".  That could also mean "Gasoline sold by Shell at its Retail Outlets."  Recall that many refiners have slowly pulled back from the gasoline retailing game in the last 10 years, because the margins are so brutal.  Also in the last 10 years we've seen the rise of Walmart/Sam's Club/Corner Grocery-R-US selling gas as a loss leader to get people into their stores.  Are Walmart's gas sales counted in this chart?  Clearly they are not a refiner, and they do engage in retail gasoline sales.  Their gas is wholesaled from Shell or Valero or whoever, maybe that's the confusion.

 

I'm certainly willing to believe a a 10-20% drop in gas demand over that time frame, but a 50% drop in overall demand simply doesn't square with crude usage over that time interval in the U.S.  We went from a peak of 21.5 million BPD of crude usage in Dec. 2005 to 18.2 million BPD in March of 2012.  That's a drop of about 15%.  

I think the chart we would all like to see is http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mgfupus2&f=m

 

This chart shows total gasoline delivered to the US market.  Again the peak of deliveries of gas occured in Jul 2007, at 9.6 million barrels per day of gasoline.  In March 2012 we only used 8.6 million barrels, not a 50% drop but something like 10%.

 

I think we need to use the right chart to make the right point....

 

 

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 08:56 | 2503082 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Ummm...where do you think Sams Club and Costco get their gasoline...if not from a refiner?  I believe their practice is to buy from multiple refiners based on cost.

On the issue of using the "Product Supplied" category, I believe you would have to subtract this category.  Check out that rampage...and ask yourself why we are exporting our gasoline to record levels.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MGFEXUS2&f=M

Not sure why you are struggling so much with the concept of collapsing domestic sales of gasoline...unless you do not like the message.  As for me...well...I'm just the messenger, so...

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 09:35 | 2503232 Knobbius
Knobbius's picture

FIrst of all, I'm not struggling with anything except your mis-use of the data.  The terms on the chart you showed said "US Total Retail Sales by Refiners".  Sams Club is not a refiner.  And their gas isn't purchased on a retail basis from refiners, they buy it wholesale.  SO my original question is still valid.

Second, our exports of gasoline are fairly small compared to our production of gas.  400,000 BPD vs. 8.6 Million BPD is not that remarkable.  And irrelevant to the point I was making anyhow.

 

ANd what do you mean "subtract this catagory"?  What should be subtracted from what, exactly?

 

I don't care one way or another what the message is, as long as it's accurate.

 

 

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 09:41 | 2503274 StackAttack
StackAttack's picture

gjp,

Cdad is right.  This chart is retail sales by refiners.  Most of our imported oil is crude and gets refined here in the states, so that refinery number should include most of the oil that we import from foreign sources.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 20:06 | 2501522 Bear
Bear's picture

Something happened between Sept 22 and Oct 11 ... monthly gas sales went down 23% in one month. Maybe they changed how they recorded th data?

Jul-2011 42,448 -0.1 Aug-2011       42,352 -0.2 Sep-2011 41,973 -0.9 Oct-2011 32,015 -23.7 Nov-2011 30,972 -3.3 Dec-2011 30,414 -1.8 Jan-2012       28,390  -6.7 Feb-2012 29,547 +4.1 Mar-2012 29,513 -0.1
Wed, 06/06/2012 - 21:15 | 2501766 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I'm pretty sure you can spot the reason here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC+Interactive#symbol=%5Egspc;range=2y;compare=;indicator=stochasticslow(12,3)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Extrapolating from that October low point, I'm pretty sure that you will be able to spot that the criminal syndicate has once again reflated assets...while the economy, of course, remains in the tank...which is pretty much my point in reposting this gasoline sales chart.

However, I could be wrong, and maybe it is just a charting error.  But then again, you would also think the error would have corrected itself by now...but alas...sales continue on in their downward spiral.

 

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 19:53 | 2501507 machineh
machineh's picture

Same comment as gjp -- not possible that gasoline volume could be cut in half. 

Traffic on roads is down a bit, but not by fifty freaking percent.

Something is wrong with, or excluded from, the EIA chart.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 19:38 | 2501470 Bear
Bear's picture

Wow ... How could we have cratered to 50% of 2009 gasolene consumption when gas (RBN12) is at $2.70, retail is at $3.50, and crude at $85.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 21:02 | 2501717 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Answer:  The criminal syndicate known as Wall Street.  It has broken all relationships between supply, demand, and price.  Toss on top the fact that the US never left its recession of 2008-2009 and viola!

 

Thu, 06/07/2012 - 00:42 | 2502287 Knobbius
Knobbius's picture

Again, starting from the right data you would need to modify your narrative.  Our usage is down 10-15% in petroleum products over the last 5 years, not 50%.  That's still shitty, and is still indicative of serious continuing economic dislocation.  But it aint 50.

 

 

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:49 | 2501183 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

"Losses"? 

We call those "Bonuses" where I come from.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:56 | 2501203 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Krugman towelettes or better yet Krugman TP

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 20:00 | 2501518 machineh
machineh's picture

Kurgman panty liners.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:57 | 2501206 LeisureSmith
LeisureSmith's picture

If we all jump at the same time, maybe we can knock the punchbowl down from the table so everybody can see the 

turd thats been floting around in there all evening.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 17:58 | 2501210 veyron
veyron's picture

Biderman how is your FB call?  Did you sell or did you hang on?

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 18:12 | 2501238 BigMike
BigMike's picture

Indeed. That whole 'this might be the first trillion dollar market cap' can be dismissed now I suspect. Long XOM <-- first trillion market cap 

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 18:09 | 2501234 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Biderman is another "disheveled" bear mired in mediocre economic circumstances, never able to match the life of luxury which the PigMen enjoy.

Bernanke is Peyton Manning, Kobe Bryant, and Matt Kemp all rolled into one

There is not a single MVP pro athlete in world history who has pulled off the Herculean feats that Bernanke has.

In a nutshell, Bernanke could win the Nobel Prize for Economics with his deft handling of the economy.

He is now so powerful, just the mere utterance of a suggestion moves markets.

He doesn't even have to do anything or say he is going to do anything, just suggest it.

And the Wildebeest Herd moves instantaneously whichever way he directs them to go.

He has 100% control of equities

He has 100% control of interest rates

He has 100% control of the CRB Index

With Draghi, he has 100% control of currency markets.

Now all he has to do is using his "Magic Wand" and boost stocks so businesses start hiring and unemployment goes down.

If he is able to pull that off prior to the November elections, then the Washington Monument will surely be re-named the Bernanke Monument and relocated to the front steps of the Fed building.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 18:25 | 2501269 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Your brain is disheveled.  

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 18:30 | 2501274 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Well Ben still has a way to go before he really controls markets like my buddy Benito M and Adolphe H, Joseph S and Mao T. He's really in the bush league compared with those superstars who also controlled wages, prices, labor laws, exports, imports, government spending the armed forces and the dept of secret police and unmentionables

Come back and talk to me when Ben's utterances can provoke a riot, a mass rally and an invasion in the same week

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 18:33 | 2501282 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Still beating the same shtick all by yourself I see robo. 

 

On second thought was it Robotrader or RobotTrader. What evs.

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 19:10 | 2501368 Terrorist
Terrorist's picture

RT
Please consult with MDB before posting.
Thanks, T

Wed, 06/06/2012 - 19:27 | 2501428 reTARD
reTARD's picture

RT, at least nobody mentioned "basement" yet. ;-)

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