Biderman's Back And He's Not Bullish

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Dressed in the ominous black of his alter ego (Lewis), Charles reflects on his recent trip to NYC with the same incredulity as we do with our many and varied conversations with equity fund managers - they're long and terrified. The recognition of total dependency on Central Bank manipulation leaves an investing public seemingly believing in miracles. From Europe, where the consensus (media) belief is that 'all-is-now-fixed' or at minimum the can is a long way down the road (though the velocity of deterioration in Spanish spreads this week - largest 2-day widening in over 3 months - has many funds we know greatly concerned) when the reality is a dis-union declining into recession relying on more and greater money printing (while disparaging the Greek bailout and offering some crazy facts on the Greek population); to the US as incomes (and the economy) is growing modestly (very modestly) but the impact of earnings dropping (as margins/profits mean-revert) implied far less buybacks to fund the continued expansion of equities; to Asia where China (and EM implicitly) appears to be slowing. The reality is that in an election year he believes Central Banks will do all they can though warning that at some point in time even Wile.E.Coyote has to fall back to Earth.

 

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Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:00 | 2282489 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Printing money only perpetuates the ponzi. The only postive, if you can call it that, of printing money is that the ponzi doesn't fall apart.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:22 | 2282537 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

Printing money lowers the real cost of labor via. fiat devaluation.   So, while some focus on "inflation" we could also focus on the real value of printing...lowering the real cost of labor...which benefits large corporations who benefit from rising prices and lower cost of debt and lower real labor costs...which translates to higher earnings.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:37 | 2282561 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

and that has been the reason for the drum beat against unions - to break free from the good healthcare plans that the ponzi can't lower the wages of... in fact it increases it since health care goes up further..    they want everyone to have health care, but they want to be able to make the workers pay more and more of the % each year

 

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 02:59 | 2282744 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

it is called old sick fat fucks

 

most people of workign age 25-55 are paying for healthcare used by old people who refuse to die

 

 

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 05:09 | 2282785 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Aye, i deal with the 60 - 75 age group a lot and they expect the world.

New hips, new knees ...its strange , i'd have thought they would have low expectations given what things would have been like for them when growing up. As for asia, their demographics are carrying them on. Their expansion and rise in productivity can be explained by an increase in measured inputs, namely of labour and capital.

Demographics is not destiny. Asia has grown used to a demographic tail wind. For many of its economies, that wind is about to start blowing the other way.

China has disappeared 30 million females and they may become the first homosexual superpower since the spartans.... 

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 05:48 | 2282799 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Gimmie generation.

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 07:40 | 2282851 youngman
youngman's picture

"China has disappeared "...good choice of words.....disappeared....

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 05:56 | 2282801 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Well, let's hope you die at 55 and not a day later.

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 07:54 | 2282869 MSimon
MSimon's picture

I'm against workers paying their own health care costs. Some one else should pay. The guy next door maybe?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:50 | 2282576 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Do corporations benefit from compressed margins? How about from demand lost to customer fiat value destruction (and depressed real wages)?

Retarded gimp.

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 06:06 | 2282798 economics9698
economics9698's picture

It depends how good the accountants are on valuing their products in relation to replacement capital.  If the accountants can increase prices faster than replacement capital then inflation benefits them, but this certainly is not a given.  If there is inflation and profits increase fast but slower than inflation it gives the corporations a false sense of prosperity, which they will base hiring and expansion decisions on.  This can go on for several quarters or even years, housing boom, and one day, when the customers run dry they will realize they have expanded beyond where the market is.

Central banksters trick 101 in an election year, fool business with inflated fake profits.

Here is a link showing corporate profits.  Notice the huge increase up to 2007 during the housing boom and monetary expansion, then the bust as everyone realized they had over expanded.  The same trick is being used by the central bankers but the corporations are not biting this time.  They learned their lesson on 2008.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=CP


 

 

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 10:02 | 2283195 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

That is a great graph. I'm surprised the Fed lets all this info out in the public. Kinda like a rapist who puts his videos on youtube.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:52 | 2282577 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

Inflationary deflation.

All products you purchase cost more. Wages stagnant and capital assets an individual might own (like a home) are deflating.

Japanese nekkei went from 39K to 8K today......the Fed has prevented that for now.

End result= lower standard of living for average American and higher for Chinese and far east.........which really is fair given the demographics are income inequality.  

 

 

 

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:56 | 2282587 john39
john39's picture

interesting piece on how interest rate swaps are bleeding state and local governments... anyone doubt this was a set up from the beginning?:

http://webofdebt.wordpress.com/2012/03/22/wall-street-confidence-trick-t...

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 00:00 | 2282595 rocker
rocker's picture

Wages and Home Values are deflating. Even commodities are now failing.

The only thing going up has been the top 10 hedge fund favs and the bear traps the hedge funds drive up.

The fund managers should be scared. I tried to buy this market and the hedge funds bounce in a nano second.

I'm done until I see a real bear market correction. May came early this year. Good Luck All.  I'm done playing with the HFTs.

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 01:01 | 2282649 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Has this guy ever been bullish?    He strikes me as born short.   Not that there's anything wrong with that.

 

 

 

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 07:40 | 2282849 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

When he introduces himself from Sausolito, Biderman always makes me think of that old funny rock song by Diesel,

'Sausolito Summernight' with that funny bass-throat repeat of the word 'Sausolito':

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c93aaCza_dY

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 02:25 | 2282715 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

It's all about the hunt. If you can't hunt for stocks find something else. I recognized the view from a wedding I attended a few blocks away so I just entertained myself by hunting to see where the video was shot. After spending (wasting?) ninety minutes on Google I think I've narrowed it down to the window the shot was taken from (2nd floor). Tremendously entertaining. I think there's a saying about simple strokes but it's cheaper entertainment than buying puts most days.

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 05:40 | 2282796 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

MY FRIEND,

i am currently on a scotch whisky tasting journey.  i recommend it if you are looking for something to do.

i began my journey after i was given a good bottle of scotch but didnt like it... i now realise i needed 6 months training before even attempting to take on that cask strength lagavulin.

in the beginning start off with a cheap bottle and drink it over a week.

then look at the map and go on your journey of taste with your next chosen bottle... complexity, learning of the pallate, a truly rewarding experience.

as you go through the bottle you begin to taste the hidden smoke, the fruit, the honey .. the goddam tarry ropes.

https://www.lfw.co.uk/diageo/flavourmap.html

i'm stuck in the smoky peat area - cant escape!!  

The Ardbeg is calling.

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 07:17 | 2282829 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Great single malt whisky chart.

Quite right about whisky being a terrific leisure pursuit ...

Another angle is to sort out for yourself, which among the blended whiskies - even the very cheapest ones! - you like the best.

In shops here we have some quite good store-brand blended whiskies for less than € 10 the bottle.

And then there's the classic controversy over which of the top famous 12-year-old blended whiskies you prefer - Chivas Regal 12 year old, or Johnnie Walker Black 12 year old?

Chivas is the more famously pedigreed, back in 1909 the first to become really famous as a luxury whisky ... but Johnnie Walker Black, favoured by Winston Churchill long ago, is now the best-selling one in the world.

Chivas is a bit smoother, JW Black more complex.

But, cheap or expensive, they're all good! ... With whisky tasting, you just don't lose.

"Oh show us the way, to the next whisky bar ...

Oh, don't ask why ..." - Bertolt Brecht, with music by Kurt Weill, 'The Alabama Song' from 'Mahagonny', here by the great Lotte Lenya -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJLlIYAKsLs

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 07:44 | 2282847 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

on the journey i see that the purpose of a blend is smoothness.

i'm going to get a chivas royal salute for my next trip abroad

the JW and chivas are good examples but as u say there is value... one of the best is 'the famous grouse' -

scotlands favourite and rumoured to contain a lot of highland park malt.  5 million alchies cannae be wrang

if you enjoy whisky please get urself a bottle of ardbeg uigeadail.

i'm sipping it now with a stella artois chaser to cleanse the palate ;)

its unlike any whisky or even any drink i've ever had, and a highlight of the trip so far.

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 06:16 | 2282808 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"The only thing going up has been the top 10 hedge fund favs..."

AAPL

CMG

PCLN

et. al.

Good luck trying to get them to correct. 

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 00:14 | 2282617 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

How does fiat devaluation = lower labor costs? But printing money does lower productivity because of all of the malinvestments that money printing creates by causing resources to flow into unproductive areas.

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 00:27 | 2282631 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

which translates into eventually a lot of pissed off fucking people

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 06:04 | 2282805 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Biderman may do a good Lewis Black, but some people here at ZH do a better Bill Hicks. 

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 20:43 | 2285675 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Biderman is wrong, the danger is in the bond market.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:02 | 2282494 Below Zero
Below Zero's picture

Someday Biderman will actually provide some useful and timely information that someone can profit from. Until then.....party on!

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:15 | 2282527 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

You miss the part where, these days, honest commentary is virtuous.

Oh, and, the party is over.

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 00:35 | 2282637 Below Zero
Below Zero's picture

Would that be the continuous bearish commentary that got posted from Biderman here for the past few years? Honest commentary may be virtuous in your mind but if it is constantly worthless what is the point? That he and my broken watch will finally be right at some point? My broken watch at least appears to be more correct than Biderman even if it is fleeting.....

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 02:06 | 2282710 jomama
jomama's picture

the music keeps playing until it doesn't.

and it will, because it can't continue.

are you asking for a time and date?

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 00:56 | 2282663 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Wasn't there a bad-ass comet in a movie named after this guy?

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 03:00 | 2282746 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

Don't know about the comet but I think he (his avatar title) was referring to his IQ.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:52 | 2282580 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

If you need someone else's information to profit, you should stay broke.

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 07:19 | 2282831 ltsgt1
ltsgt1's picture

I always get a headache after party. The better the party, the bigger the headache I would have to endure.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:04 | 2282502 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I think Friday afternoon cocktail hour with Charles would be interesting and relaxing.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:06 | 2282506 chump666
chump666's picture

I agree.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:54 | 2282582 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

I love his delivery, as if to say, "I can't believe this crazy shit I'm seein"

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 00:54 | 2282654 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Well, not if you're already depressed, unemployed, behind on bills, getting divorced, and suicidal.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:06 | 2282503 sof_hannibal
sof_hannibal's picture

It's last call. Literally

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:10 | 2282517 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

How about Detroit asking for a Federal Aid/Bailout????....how many dow points is that worth?

 

Congressman Hansen Clark...

"I just flew in from D.C. ... to meet with the mayor tomorrow morning at 7:30. I wanted to find out from him how much relief I should ask from Congress. What would be the best form of emergency relief? I spent most of the day today talking with members of both the House of Representatives and a key U.S. senator about emergency aid to the City of Detroit, how we would package it together, the best way to sell it in Congress, as well," he said.

 

http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/dpp/news/local/detroit-mayor-dave-bing-hospi...

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:56 | 2282588 gwar5
gwar5's picture

How sad for the once great city of Detroit. It had everything.

It was touted as a model in the 1960's as a model planned city for Johnson's 'Great Society' and the rise of the US welfare-state and a lot of money was pumped into it. It had industry, jobs, money.... and people even used to live there.

 

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 06:26 | 2282811 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

The democrat party crime machine and its stooge plantation managers destroyed Detroit.

If you are a patriot, it should piss you off.

I'd love to drive down the road and see all those marxist bastards swinging from trees.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:13 | 2282522 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

I used to date a gal right down the road. What a snooty little town Sleazalito! Better off at Marin Brewing in Larkspur where the other half hang out. But I do like Biderman.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:52 | 2282578 atomicwasted
atomicwasted's picture

Marin Brewing is pretty kickass.

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 02:09 | 2282711 jomama
jomama's picture

it most certainly is a hoity-toity-pain-in-the-ass-to-get-around-in little community.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:13 | 2282523 chump666
chump666's picture

He missed the looming war with Iran which is about a week and half away.  That and China stagflation will reach a crescendo and...HFTs gaming over leveraged markets.  Election year of not.  A huge sell off is coming.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:17 | 2282530 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Well that will make for a great opportunity to rally round the flag, get all weepy eyed and patriotic, set aside our selfish and petty differences and just get 'er done. Whatever it is.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:27 | 2282545 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

We need to be attacked first, I think.  Another new Pearl Harbor.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:32 | 2282556 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

So far we've had a lot of fist rammed up our asses without a war. You really can fool most of the sheeples most of the time.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:42 | 2282568 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

they completely don't care.. their ADD is on overload with all the self absorbing facebookin going on...  if facebook said they are going to start charging each month, the government would block it

 

 

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