This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Biderman's Back And He's Not Bullish
Dressed in the ominous black of his alter ego (Lewis), Charles reflects on his recent trip to NYC with the same incredulity as we do with our many and varied conversations with equity fund managers - they're long and terrified. The recognition of total dependency on Central Bank manipulation leaves an investing public seemingly believing in miracles. From Europe, where the consensus (media) belief is that 'all-is-now-fixed' or at minimum the can is a long way down the road (though the velocity of deterioration in Spanish spreads this week - largest 2-day widening in over 3 months - has many funds we know greatly concerned) when the reality is a dis-union declining into recession relying on more and greater money printing (while disparaging the Greek bailout and offering some crazy facts on the Greek population); to the US as incomes (and the economy) is growing modestly (very modestly) but the impact of earnings dropping (as margins/profits mean-revert) implied far less buybacks to fund the continued expansion of equities; to Asia where China (and EM implicitly) appears to be slowing. The reality is that in an election year he believes Central Banks will do all they can though warning that at some point in time even Wile.E.Coyote has to fall back to Earth.
»
- 13614 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Printing money only perpetuates the ponzi. The only postive, if you can call it that, of printing money is that the ponzi doesn't fall apart.
Printing money lowers the real cost of labor via. fiat devaluation. So, while some focus on "inflation" we could also focus on the real value of printing...lowering the real cost of labor...which benefits large corporations who benefit from rising prices and lower cost of debt and lower real labor costs...which translates to higher earnings.
and that has been the reason for the drum beat against unions - to break free from the good healthcare plans that the ponzi can't lower the wages of... in fact it increases it since health care goes up further.. they want everyone to have health care, but they want to be able to make the workers pay more and more of the % each year
it is called old sick fat fucks
most people of workign age 25-55 are paying for healthcare used by old people who refuse to die
Aye, i deal with the 60 - 75 age group a lot and they expect the world.
New hips, new knees ...its strange , i'd have thought they would have low expectations given what things would have been like for them when growing up. As for asia, their demographics are carrying them on. Their expansion and rise in productivity can be explained by an increase in measured inputs, namely of labour and capital.
Demographics is not destiny. Asia has grown used to a demographic tail wind. For many of its economies, that wind is about to start blowing the other way.
China has disappeared 30 million females and they may become the first homosexual superpower since the spartans....
Gimmie generation.
"China has disappeared "...good choice of words.....disappeared....
Well, let's hope you die at 55 and not a day later.
I'm against workers paying their own health care costs. Some one else should pay. The guy next door maybe?
Do corporations benefit from compressed margins? How about from demand lost to customer fiat value destruction (and depressed real wages)?
Retarded gimp.
It depends how good the accountants are on valuing their products in relation to replacement capital. If the accountants can increase prices faster than replacement capital then inflation benefits them, but this certainly is not a given. If there is inflation and profits increase fast but slower than inflation it gives the corporations a false sense of prosperity, which they will base hiring and expansion decisions on. This can go on for several quarters or even years, housing boom, and one day, when the customers run dry they will realize they have expanded beyond where the market is.
Central banksters trick 101 in an election year, fool business with inflated fake profits.
Here is a link showing corporate profits. Notice the huge increase up to 2007 during the housing boom and monetary expansion, then the bust as everyone realized they had over expanded. The same trick is being used by the central bankers but the corporations are not biting this time. They learned their lesson on 2008.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=CP
That is a great graph. I'm surprised the Fed lets all this info out in the public. Kinda like a rapist who puts his videos on youtube.
Inflationary deflation.
All products you purchase cost more. Wages stagnant and capital assets an individual might own (like a home) are deflating.
Japanese nekkei went from 39K to 8K today......the Fed has prevented that for now.
End result= lower standard of living for average American and higher for Chinese and far east.........which really is fair given the demographics are income inequality.
interesting piece on how interest rate swaps are bleeding state and local governments... anyone doubt this was a set up from the beginning?:
http://webofdebt.wordpress.com/2012/03/22/wall-street-confidence-trick-t...
Wages and Home Values are deflating. Even commodities are now failing.
The only thing going up has been the top 10 hedge fund favs and the bear traps the hedge funds drive up.
The fund managers should be scared. I tried to buy this market and the hedge funds bounce in a nano second.
I'm done until I see a real bear market correction. May came early this year. Good Luck All. I'm done playing with the HFTs.
Has this guy ever been bullish? He strikes me as born short. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
When he introduces himself from Sausolito, Biderman always makes me think of that old funny rock song by Diesel,
'Sausolito Summernight' with that funny bass-throat repeat of the word 'Sausolito':
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c93aaCza_dY
It's all about the hunt. If you can't hunt for stocks find something else. I recognized the view from a wedding I attended a few blocks away so I just entertained myself by hunting to see where the video was shot. After spending (wasting?) ninety minutes on Google I think I've narrowed it down to the window the shot was taken from (2nd floor). Tremendously entertaining. I think there's a saying about simple strokes but it's cheaper entertainment than buying puts most days.
MY FRIEND,
i am currently on a scotch whisky tasting journey. i recommend it if you are looking for something to do.
i began my journey after i was given a good bottle of scotch but didnt like it... i now realise i needed 6 months training before even attempting to take on that cask strength lagavulin.
in the beginning start off with a cheap bottle and drink it over a week.
then look at the map and go on your journey of taste with your next chosen bottle... complexity, learning of the pallate, a truly rewarding experience.
as you go through the bottle you begin to taste the hidden smoke, the fruit, the honey .. the goddam tarry ropes.
https://www.lfw.co.uk/diageo/flavourmap.html
i'm stuck in the smoky peat area - cant escape!!
The Ardbeg is calling.
Great single malt whisky chart.
Quite right about whisky being a terrific leisure pursuit ...
Another angle is to sort out for yourself, which among the blended whiskies - even the very cheapest ones! - you like the best.
In shops here we have some quite good store-brand blended whiskies for less than € 10 the bottle.
And then there's the classic controversy over which of the top famous 12-year-old blended whiskies you prefer - Chivas Regal 12 year old, or Johnnie Walker Black 12 year old?
Chivas is the more famously pedigreed, back in 1909 the first to become really famous as a luxury whisky ... but Johnnie Walker Black, favoured by Winston Churchill long ago, is now the best-selling one in the world.
Chivas is a bit smoother, JW Black more complex.
But, cheap or expensive, they're all good! ... With whisky tasting, you just don't lose.
"Oh show us the way, to the next whisky bar ...
Oh, don't ask why ..." - Bertolt Brecht, with music by Kurt Weill, 'The Alabama Song' from 'Mahagonny', here by the great Lotte Lenya -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJLlIYAKsLs
on the journey i see that the purpose of a blend is smoothness.
i'm going to get a chivas royal salute for my next trip abroad
the JW and chivas are good examples but as u say there is value... one of the best is 'the famous grouse' -
scotlands favourite and rumoured to contain a lot of highland park malt. 5 million alchies cannae be wrang
if you enjoy whisky please get urself a bottle of ardbeg uigeadail.
i'm sipping it now with a stella artois chaser to cleanse the palate ;)
its unlike any whisky or even any drink i've ever had, and a highlight of the trip so far.
"The only thing going up has been the top 10 hedge fund favs..."
AAPL
CMG
PCLN
et. al.
Good luck trying to get them to correct.
How does fiat devaluation = lower labor costs? But printing money does lower productivity because of all of the malinvestments that money printing creates by causing resources to flow into unproductive areas.
which translates into eventually a lot of pissed off fucking people
Biderman may do a good Lewis Black, but some people here at ZH do a better Bill Hicks.
Biderman is wrong, the danger is in the bond market.
Someday Biderman will actually provide some useful and timely information that someone can profit from. Until then.....party on!
You miss the part where, these days, honest commentary is virtuous.
Oh, and, the party is over.
Would that be the continuous bearish commentary that got posted from Biderman here for the past few years? Honest commentary may be virtuous in your mind but if it is constantly worthless what is the point? That he and my broken watch will finally be right at some point? My broken watch at least appears to be more correct than Biderman even if it is fleeting.....
the music keeps playing until it doesn't.
and it will, because it can't continue.
are you asking for a time and date?
Wasn't there a bad-ass comet in a movie named after this guy?
Don't know about the comet but I think he (his avatar title) was referring to his IQ.
If you need someone else's information to profit, you should stay broke.
I always get a headache after party. The better the party, the bigger the headache I would have to endure.
I think Friday afternoon cocktail hour with Charles would be interesting and relaxing.
I agree.
I love his delivery, as if to say, "I can't believe this crazy shit I'm seein"
Well, not if you're already depressed, unemployed, behind on bills, getting divorced, and suicidal.
It's last call. Literally
How about Detroit asking for a Federal Aid/Bailout????....how many dow points is that worth?
Congressman Hansen Clark...
"I just flew in from D.C. ... to meet with the mayor tomorrow morning at 7:30. I wanted to find out from him how much relief I should ask from Congress. What would be the best form of emergency relief? I spent most of the day today talking with members of both the House of Representatives and a key U.S. senator about emergency aid to the City of Detroit, how we would package it together, the best way to sell it in Congress, as well," he said.
http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/dpp/news/local/detroit-mayor-dave-bing-hospi...
How sad for the once great city of Detroit. It had everything.
It was touted as a model in the 1960's as a model planned city for Johnson's 'Great Society' and the rise of the US welfare-state and a lot of money was pumped into it. It had industry, jobs, money.... and people even used to live there.
The democrat party crime machine and its stooge plantation managers destroyed Detroit.
If you are a patriot, it should piss you off.
I'd love to drive down the road and see all those marxist bastards swinging from trees.
I used to date a gal right down the road. What a snooty little town Sleazalito! Better off at Marin Brewing in Larkspur where the other half hang out. But I do like Biderman.
Marin Brewing is pretty kickass.
it most certainly is a hoity-toity-pain-in-the-ass-to-get-around-in little community.
He missed the looming war with Iran which is about a week and half away. That and China stagflation will reach a crescendo and...HFTs gaming over leveraged markets. Election year of not. A huge sell off is coming.
Well that will make for a great opportunity to rally round the flag, get all weepy eyed and patriotic, set aside our selfish and petty differences and just get 'er done. Whatever it is.
We need to be attacked first, I think. Another new Pearl Harbor.
So far we've had a lot of fist rammed up our asses without a war. You really can fool most of the sheeples most of the time.
they completely don't care.. their ADD is on overload with all the self absorbing facebookin going on... if facebook said they are going to start charging each month, the government would block it
or subsidise it...
If these maniacs launch an attack on Iran, I say we fight it anyway we can on any forums- with knowledge and common sense. Refuse to participate. I know its tilling at windmills, but we have to start somewhere.
More likely another "Gulf of Tonkin" USS Enterprise should be in the Strait of Hormuz within days. Enterprise is slated to be decommissioned later this year. Hmmmm
how the hell do you know of not? bwahahahahahahaha1
Sausolito is a beautiful place I was their recently. A nice spot to watch the world burn.
Cue the Pixies http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVof0qj7SOw
i'm up in the woods not far from there. maybe,
At the risk of totally destroying my ZH cred, I am a Harvard College grad, 1976. I will never forget having an interview with a bunch of old dudes there at the Harvard Club in 1972 to see if they wanted to contribute to my scholarship, me being a poor boy from Flushing, NYC. They did. I still appreciate that.
FWIW, after graduation I went to Navy OCS in Newport and spent 6 years active and 22 years Reserve in the Navy, so I am not a total fucknuts liberal.
Thanks for your service. I generally find more kind and generous people among the more successful ones. I seems to be part of the secret to success.
gwar,
Thank you. It was an honor to serve with the fine people I was with in the Service, but I think of my old man who fought in WW2 and Korea (on the carrier Valley Forge as Aviation Services Officer) as a Naval Officer and my uncle also who was in both wars as an enlisted Navy Quartermaster (Navigation) and was in the shit in the Phillipines during WW2, and my older brother who was in the Navy for Vietnam, 2 tours on the gunline on DDG-16, and I feel pretty humbled. I never had a shot fired at me, they all risked their lives for their country, and now we have these criminals destroying it.
Sadly it appears your entire family have been tools for the continuous ponzi scheme called war. No insult is intended. Marine Major General Smedley Butler who wrote "War Is A Racket" in 1935 said:
“War is just a racket. A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of people. Only a small inside group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few at the expense of the masses.
I believe in adequate defense at the coastline and nothing else. If a nation comes over here to fight, then we'll fight. The trouble with America is that when the dollar only earns 6 percent over here, then it gets restless and goes overseas to get 100 percent. Then the flag follows the dollar and the soldiers follow the flag.
I wouldn't go to war again as I have done to protect some lousy investment of the bankers. There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other is the Bill of Rights. War for any other reason is simply a racket.
There isn't a trick in the racketeering bag that the military gang is blind to. It has its "finger men" to point out enemies, its "muscle men" to destroy enemies, its "brain men" to plan war preparations, and a "Big Boss" Super-Nationalistic-Capitalism.
It may seem odd for me, a military man to adopt such a comparison. Truthfulness compels me to. I spent thirty- three years and four months in active military service as a member of this country's most agile military force, the Marine Corps. I served in all commissioned ranks from Second Lieutenant to Major-General. And during that period, I spent most of my time being a high class muscle- man for Big Business, for Wall Street and for the Bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism.
I suspected I was just part of a racket at the time. Now I am sure of it. Like all the members of the military profession, I never had a thought of my own until I left the service. My mental faculties remained in suspended animation while I obeyed the orders of higher-ups. This is typical with everyone in the military service."
LOL!
Thank God I cashed out my retirement.
I would rather be broke in the gutter than at the whim of those pricks on Wall Street and Washington.
gosh, that's funny.
I say let the PONZI fall apart, the longer people are dependent on ever expanding credit the more the real economy shrinks... simply idc how bad the pain is, the alternative to continuing this policy is, when the credit stops all economies will crashed & peace will no longer last... I wish our country was the way it was founded... thanks to the past generations for really fucking up my generations future...
Summer 2012: Iran war, crash in the markets and financial institutions
five devastating storms will mark the summer of 2012 and thus accelerate the process of world geopolitical swing:
Full Analysis:
http://www.webcompact.net/index.php/news/21800-summer-2012-iran-war-crash-in-the-markets-and-financial-institutions
Hey all that sounds not so bad. I was expecting the end of the world as we know it. So this is encouraging.
http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=6qwj9tcab&v=001NbQR3PfROKlql3MQoyKHEStl1xzofzG1FVi6vDE_DcsLesOj5lGvPZnD1XDAB9_BNo-RBG1ht0m9k7CaxwnX958yeg2ZSlPFArrcoBFQne6Mrg9_xvSYo4Kptm1EMUffNm-7A020wfMdGL5GsfOtwAibOmFkCeJsvf2LHK9bvrAeRbzPJ4cBS2dgs9dR3BG3G_zfsmuY59cy96QI8BD9aRxs7_wRzK4CaQf64QOFgf4%3D
The Chuck Jones Gallery is pleased to release a selection of rare original production art and sold-through cel art editions of everyone's favorite Martian, Marvin.
As Bernanke devalues the US Dollar World Reserve currency to Junk
other major Trade - Nations like Europe, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and now Australia
will find ways around that US FED induced "Bugger thy World" effect
Media Release Number 2012-08 Date 22 March 2012 Embargo For Immediate Release
Bilateral Local Currency Swap Agreement with the People's Bank of China
Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia signed a bilateral local currency swap agreement with the People's Bank of China (PBC). The agreement allows for the exchange of local currencies between the two central banks of up to A$30 billion or CNY 200 billion. It is for an initial period of three years and can be activated by either party. The main purposes of the swap agreement are to support trade and investment between Australia and China, particularly in local-currency terms, and to strengthen bilateral financial cooperation. The agreement reflects the increasing opportunities available to settle trade between the two countries in Chinese renminbi (RMB) and to make RMB-denominated investments. It follows the decision by the Chinese authorities last November to allow convertibility between Australian dollars and Chinese yuan in the interbank market in China. The signing of this agreement occurred in Beijing at a ceremony between the PBC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan and RBA Governor Glenn Stevens.
http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2012/mr-12-08.html
posted by wr;)
Thats what the new banking system will be I think, no more reserve currency. Bi-lateral currency swaps with deficits settled yearly/quarterly in commodities.
Makes sense to me...
Not bad. Instead of a gold standard we get a coal or ore standard. Same sort of thing.
I can dig it.
For a short time after the Weimar collapse, money was backed by real estate. Not the best asset to use but the people demanded that their money be backed by something.
They say "hope" is the most dangerous word there is.
Since everyone is buying up equities and "hoping" they go up.
Ill take my chances against hope and buy gold.
If investing in hope is risky and stupid, than invest against it.
maintianing the Status Quo - a big ugly nasty mess
Yeh, Incomes are growing all right - I am now working six 12 hour days per week (instead of 40 - 50 hours) to make a slight bit more than I was earning in 2008. Fuck'n A
Biderman cracks me up, bring on John Williams of Shadowstats
http://www.shadowstats.com/
spotlight him, please!
Just put your capital in a Money Market account....or perhaps a 1 year CD. You can get somewhere around 1% return on investment....so really, no worries eh?
ZH link crash End of the Road website!
Waiting for Stock Market Bottom Bad Strategy
http://stockmarketbottom.com
Wile E Coyote always falls back to Earth.
Off Topic: EURO got a woody at 12:15 Mar. 23.
The sad thing is that any profit on the stock market is generated from volatility rather than improving business conditions. The infuriating thing of course is that much of the volatility arises from manipulative moves and false information fed by the few to the many.
Friday morning hoo-ha call:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sbMxxeFYXM
What kind of a beverage is Scotch that one savors the flavor of the peat fire used to distill it ? Why not burn used tires ? The best liquor is Sugar Cane Alcohol 96% water free ! No ketones, alcalydes, varnish, carcinogens etc. that give Scotch so much character ! Mixes well with everything and reduces hang overs drastically ! If you sniff it....there is the faintest smell of the cane blowing across the Caribbean ! It's cheap to produce and pure ! It even prevents global warming ! They can burn the pressed and dried cane to run the boilers ? It's the ultimate white rum ! Zero advertising expense in your pour ! Keeps forever if it's well sealed....it is so dry it sucks moisture out of the air we breath ! Hoarders delight ! Has medical applications, too ! I bought a one litre bottle the other day....a plain white label with a drawing of sugar cane stalks in black ink.....cost me $65 Mexican Pesos ! Monedas 2012 Comedy Jihad World Tour
None of those clueless at Harvard Club knows anything about totalitarianism.
In totalitarianism, full control by government, their services are not needed and they will all be fired.
Has anybody noticed that Wall Street is firing and firing and firing and firing and firing.....?
It's because of governmnet intervention. If private money is not involved, no need for them.
Martin Armstrong says the shoe will start to drop
here in the US in about sixteen months.
Got da shit n stacks bitches?
No? You best git and get pronto then.
A bit-o-my red neck line just showed I think.