Big GDP Miss: 2.2% Vs Expectations Of 2.5%, Composition Even Uglier

Tyler Durden's picture

So much for the +3.0% GDP whisper number. Instead of printing at the expected number of +2.5%, the first preliminary GDP data point (two more revisions pending) came out at 2.2%, a big disappointment for a quarter which had a substantial boost from the weather. And while of the 2.2%, Personal Consumption came in strong - as expected, as it was precisely the factor most impacted by pulling in demand forward courtesy of "April in February", 0.59% of the 2.2% was an increase in inventories, something which was not supposed to happen as it means that the quality of the economic growth in Q1 was far worse than expected. Cementing the ugly composition of Q1 GDP was fixed investment which added just a paltry 0.18% - this is the number which is critical for ongoing cashflow generation and unfortunately, the very low print means that growth outlook for Q2 is now even worse than before and we expect economists will promptly trim their already bearish predictions for Q2 GDP. Finally, government "consumption" subtracted just 0.6% from the total number, a decrease from the 0.84% in Q4, which means that once again the government is starting to become less of a detractor to growth - a dagger in the heart to anyone who claims there is "quality" in GDP growth. And the number you have all been waiting for: At March 31, US Debt/GDP was 100.8%.

Full breakdown by category:

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
icanhasbailout's picture

quick, someone upshift the fraud machine!

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Missed it by jiiiiiiiiiiiist that much.

 

King_of_simpletons's picture

Great news for another 300 point upswing in the stock market. Boy, the economy has been getting better over the last decade will probably overheat before the elections. FED Reserve, DC and the Media deserve congratulations on this marvellous feat !!

Whoa Dammit's picture

Outsource the GDP calcs to China, then they will always be 9%. :-).

jus_lite_reading's picture

I hope you are not being facetious.... one M7+ earthquake near reactor 4 could topple the whole unit and that would indeed be an ELE...

The world is one hair away from global collapse on so many levels... if you don't have guns gold and green beans then you have only yourself to blame...

JPM Hater001's picture

Oh I've got green beans and led all right.

Do you have trader Joe's rack Of NZ lamb chops?

Don't go into the collapse without lamb.

Silver Bully's picture

Does this mean yer on the lamb?

urbanelf's picture

No, but I have an awful lot of Trader Joe's canned beans.  I really hope the collapse doesn't happen because I will be farting until civilization gets rebuilt.

JustObserving's picture

The US official inflation number is massaged to be a few points lower than the actual number.  So if we correct the GDP growth for actual inflation, we probably had a negative number for growth.  So much for the great growth in the US economy - unless you want to include fraudulent economic data.

This is bullish for QE and real money, i.e, precious metals. Let's see how long it takes gold to get to $1700

Sudden Debt's picture

IT'S BULLISH BECAUSE AMERICA ISN'T SPAIN!!

True fact actually! Don't let the Spanish speaking majority fool ya!

 

Born Patriot's picture

This is the sad reality of multicultural America. The economy simply cannot function with such a multitude of competing cultures. But for some reason, most of the idiots on this board are incapable of seeing this.

tmosley's picture

Would you get the fuck out of here, you fucking racist peice of shit?

Yes, everyone knows its you, RNR.  Everyone knows you hate anyone different from yourself.  Give it the fuck up.

DeadFred's picture

Have you noticed how the paid trolls largely dropped off the boards when the skank ads started? Now that they are on the decline we seeing reversion to the mean on the troll index. I conclude that the banks have limited funds for the anti-ZH campaign. I wonder if the current market ramp will falter for the same reason.

Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Fred..!

What "skank ads" ?

You turned yourself in.

DOT's picture

Get a shot from the Doc; you clicked through one too many McBaggs posts !

Silver Bully's picture

Cap'n Ben is givin' it all she's got! The money printer is in overdrive and he doesn't know how long he can keep 'er together!

EINSILVERGUY's picture

You're te best engineer in the fleet. If you can't get her out of here then I'll have to fire you

fuu's picture

I dunno Truth Team 6 still swoops in with coordinated thread shitting quite often.

Woodyg's picture

I thought it was Ted Nugent....

Waffen's picture

Lots of things can be blamed with multiculturalism, but to blame bullshit numbers and manipulation of statistics by government on it, is well beyond silly.

Ivanovich's picture

Cant....stop...looking at....avatar.

Kina's picture

Yep TPTB to distract from their insane corruption and destruction says.....look over there, race against race, thats a nice emotive issue that gets everybody going, lets create more controversy and circuses to keep the peasants distracted. AND of course there are always too many easy takers read to vent their hatred on something.

 

Lowest common denominatior TPTB best friend.

 

 

jeff montanye's picture

so true.  the bushobama administration made clear for many more what ralph nader could not convince the people of in 2000 (parties essentially the same) despite the lieberman nomination.

victor82's picture

Look, Pickett's Charge didn't quite get the job done, okay? In fact, it was complete bollocks. You can't even blame Bernanke and the Fed for it, okay? Hang all of it on Bobby Lee.

However, there must have been Jooos about somewhere in Pennsylvania in 1863, I'll give you that.

jeff montanye's picture

it's not the jews.  it's the zionists.  try to keep up.

DOT's picture

No Pluribus => No Unum.

Are you wanting to quit the experiment ? 

 

Oh, just a suggestion, but you should really man up you sniveling, wretched, whiner. This ain't the place for the insecure and ineffectual.

i love cholas's picture

I think i'm more shocked at 6 people voting you up. Oh yah, go fuck yourself Born Patriot 

DeadFred's picture

The fraud machine never sleeps so this is the number they wanted to print. We don't trust the positive prints so why do we think this miss is real? What are the options?

It's worse but they couldn't fudge it higher

They wanted a downer number now when the market is rising on a bounce so later upwards 'revisions' will support the market when it's needed

The other-than-above reason (which is most likely)

There is the possibility that a cigar is just a cigar, but I doubt it.

slaughterer's picture

Guys: less growth in our abnormally-warm Q1, means MORE GROWTH left over for Q2-4.   BULLISH!

victor82's picture

Yes, but its Q2 and Q3 that matter to this White House.

Stax Edwards's picture

Personal Consumption is the takeaway.  De-leveraging making way for old friend pent-up demand to rear his head.  Bullish!

Stuck on Zero's picture

While ramping up the fraud machine don't forget to channel stuff and print another trillion and give it to the 1%.

Cdad's picture

Tyler...you rock, man.  You are reality.

ZippyBananaPants's picture

I am just trying to get a better look at the chicks boobs on CNBC!

jus_lite_reading's picture

And this number is with record M1 money supply flowing like the Niagra falls AND it's massaged which means in reality, if you subtract all the phoney pnozi money that has been injected and subtract the hopium quotient the US has a negative GDP of -5.0%+ in my opinion. How do I know? Just looking around at Main Street USA...

QE3 is now certain!!! (Shhhhhh don't tell anyone but GOLD and SILVER are about to skyrocket...)

DosZap's picture

Planned destruction of America ON COURSE..............................who do they think they are fooling.

You cannot HOPE to control the people until they are starving, and on the streets.

WTF UP!

SeverinSlade's picture

Only question is, was this a big enough miss to spark New QE rumors?

narapoiddyslexia's picture

And the leakees pre-reacted well using gold...

spastic_colon's picture

QE or not europe is up which is all that matters for our markets

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Uh o, free money junkies are on the move