Big GDP Miss: 2.2% Vs Expectations Of 2.5%, Composition Even Uglier

Tyler Durden's picture


So much for the +3.0% GDP whisper number. Instead of printing at the expected number of +2.5%, the first preliminary GDP data point (two more revisions pending) came out at 2.2%, a big disappointment for a quarter which had a substantial boost from the weather. And while of the 2.2%, Personal Consumption came in strong - as expected, as it was precisely the factor most impacted by pulling in demand forward courtesy of "April in February", 0.59% of the 2.2% was an increase in inventories, something which was not supposed to happen as it means that the quality of the economic growth in Q1 was far worse than expected. Cementing the ugly composition of Q1 GDP was fixed investment which added just a paltry 0.18% - this is the number which is critical for ongoing cashflow generation and unfortunately, the very low print means that growth outlook for Q2 is now even worse than before and we expect economists will promptly trim their already bearish predictions for Q2 GDP. Finally, government "consumption" subtracted just 0.6% from the total number, a decrease from the 0.84% in Q4, which means that once again the government is starting to become less of a detractor to growth - a dagger in the heart to anyone who claims there is "quality" in GDP growth. And the number you have all been waiting for: At March 31, US Debt/GDP was 100.8%.

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Fri, 04/27/2012 - 08:42 | 2379694 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

quick, someone upshift the fraud machine!

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 08:46 | 2379708 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Missed it by jiiiiiiiiiiiist that much.


Fri, 04/27/2012 - 08:54 | 2379754 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

fukushima reactor 4

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:09 | 2379813 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Apples to apples...


Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:18 | 2379833 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Great news for another 300 point upswing in the stock market. Boy, the economy has been getting better over the last decade will probably overheat before the elections. FED Reserve, DC and the Media deserve congratulations on this marvellous feat !!

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:41 | 2379940 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Yes, this is quite bullish.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:57 | 2380017 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

Outsource the GDP calcs to China, then they will always be 9%. :-).

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:33 | 2379911 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

I hope you are not being facetious.... one M7+ earthquake near reactor 4 could topple the whole unit and that would indeed be an ELE...

The world is one hair away from global collapse on so many levels... if you don't have guns gold and green beans then you have only yourself to blame...

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:44 | 2379953 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Oh I've got green beans and led all right.

Do you have trader Joe's rack Of NZ lamb chops?

Don't go into the collapse without lamb.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:51 | 2379992 Silver Bully
Silver Bully's picture

Does this mean yer on the lamb?

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 10:13 | 2380070 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture


Fri, 04/27/2012 - 10:07 | 2380054 urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

No, but I have an awful lot of Trader Joe's canned beans.  I really hope the collapse doesn't happen because I will be farting until civilization gets rebuilt.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:02 | 2379789 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

The US official inflation number is massaged to be a few points lower than the actual number.  So if we correct the GDP growth for actual inflation, we probably had a negative number for growth.  So much for the great growth in the US economy - unless you want to include fraudulent economic data.

This is bullish for QE and real money, i.e, precious metals. Let's see how long it takes gold to get to $1700

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:09 | 2379812 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

it's all inflation

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:30 | 2379895 Comay Mierda
Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:48 | 2379975 thecoloredsky
thecoloredsky's picture

This means the government isn't spending enough.


Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:07 | 2379800 bernorange
bernorange's picture

Sounds bullish. /deadpan

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:18 | 2379829 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


True fact actually! Don't let the Spanish speaking majority fool ya!


Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:24 | 2379880 DOT
DOT's picture

No hay problema.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 08:55 | 2379758 Born Patriot
Born Patriot's picture

This is the sad reality of multicultural America. The economy simply cannot function with such a multitude of competing cultures. But for some reason, most of the idiots on this board are incapable of seeing this.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:00 | 2379779 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Would you get the fuck out of here, you fucking racist peice of shit?

Yes, everyone knows its you, RNR.  Everyone knows you hate anyone different from yourself.  Give it the fuck up.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:34 | 2379913 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Have you noticed how the paid trolls largely dropped off the boards when the skank ads started? Now that they are on the decline we seeing reversion to the mean on the troll index. I conclude that the banks have limited funds for the anti-ZH campaign. I wonder if the current market ramp will falter for the same reason.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:42 | 2379943 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture


What "skank ads" ?

You turned yourself in.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 10:06 | 2380050 DOT
DOT's picture

Get a shot from the Doc; you clicked through one too many McBaggs posts !

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:53 | 2380002 Silver Bully
Silver Bully's picture

Cap'n Ben is givin' it all she's got! The money printer is in overdrive and he doesn't know how long he can keep 'er together!

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 15:12 | 2380876 EINSILVERGUY

You're te best engineer in the fleet. If you can't get her out of here then I'll have to fire you

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 10:13 | 2380071 fuu
fuu's picture

I dunno Truth Team 6 still swoops in with coordinated thread shitting quite often.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 10:37 | 2380149 Woodyg
Woodyg's picture

I thought it was Ted Nugent....

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:00 | 2379781 Waffen
Waffen's picture

Lots of things can be blamed with multiculturalism, but to blame bullshit numbers and manipulation of statistics by government on it, is well beyond silly.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:18 | 2379846 Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

Cant....stop...looking at....avatar.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:04 | 2379792 Kina
Kina's picture

Yep TPTB to distract from their insane corruption and destruction says.....look over there, race against race, thats a nice emotive issue that gets everybody going, lets create more controversy and circuses to keep the peasants distracted. AND of course there are always too many easy takers read to vent their hatred on something.


Lowest common denominatior TPTB best friend.



Sat, 04/28/2012 - 06:52 | 2381933 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

so true.  the bushobama administration made clear for many more what ralph nader could not convince the people of in 2000 (parties essentially the same) despite the lieberman nomination.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:37 | 2379921 victor82
victor82's picture

Look, Pickett's Charge didn't quite get the job done, okay? In fact, it was complete bollocks. You can't even blame Bernanke and the Fed for it, okay? Hang all of it on Bobby Lee.

However, there must have been Jooos about somewhere in Pennsylvania in 1863, I'll give you that.

Sat, 04/28/2012 - 06:52 | 2381935 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

it's not the jews.  it's the zionists.  try to keep up.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 10:02 | 2380036 DOT
DOT's picture

No Pluribus => No Unum.

Are you wanting to quit the experiment ? 


Oh, just a suggestion, but you should really man up you sniveling, wretched, whiner. This ain't the place for the insecure and ineffectual.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 10:30 | 2380119 i love cholas
i love cholas's picture

I think i'm more shocked at 6 people voting you up. Oh yah, go fuck yourself Born Patriot 

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:20 | 2379854 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The fraud machine never sleeps so this is the number they wanted to print. We don't trust the positive prints so why do we think this miss is real? What are the options?

It's worse but they couldn't fudge it higher

They wanted a downer number now when the market is rising on a bounce so later upwards 'revisions' will support the market when it's needed

The other-than-above reason (which is most likely)

There is the possibility that a cigar is just a cigar, but I doubt it.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:21 | 2379856 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Guys: less growth in our abnormally-warm Q1, means MORE GROWTH left over for Q2-4.   BULLISH!

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:38 | 2379926 victor82
victor82's picture

Yes, but its Q2 and Q3 that matter to this White House.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:51 | 2379990 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Personal Consumption is the takeaway.  De-leveraging making way for old friend pent-up demand to rear his head.  Bullish!

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:22 | 2379863 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

While ramping up the fraud machine don't forget to channel stuff and print another trillion and give it to the 1%.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 08:43 | 2379697 Cdad
Cdad's picture rock, man.  You are reality.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 08:51 | 2379743 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

I am just trying to get a better look at the chicks boobs on CNBC!

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 08:58 | 2379772 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

And this number is with record M1 money supply flowing like the Niagra falls AND it's massaged which means in reality, if you subtract all the phoney pnozi money that has been injected and subtract the hopium quotient the US has a negative GDP of -5.0%+ in my opinion. How do I know? Just looking around at Main Street USA...

QE3 is now certain!!! (Shhhhhh don't tell anyone but GOLD and SILVER are about to skyrocket...)

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 11:32 | 2380298 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Planned destruction of America ON COURSE..............................who do they think they are fooling.

You cannot HOPE to control the people until they are starving, and on the streets.


Fri, 04/27/2012 - 08:43 | 2379698 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Only question is, was this a big enough miss to spark New QE rumors?

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 08:51 | 2379742 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

Gold reacted well.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 09:25 | 2379882 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

And the leakees pre-reacted well using gold...

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 08:54 | 2379755 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

QE or not europe is up which is all that matters for our markets

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 08:43 | 2379699 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Uh o, free money junkies are on the move

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