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Big GDP Miss: 2.2% Vs Expectations Of 2.5%, Composition Even Uglier
So much for the +3.0% GDP whisper number. Instead of printing at the expected number of +2.5%, the first preliminary GDP data point (two more revisions pending) came out at 2.2%, a big disappointment for a quarter which had a substantial boost from the weather. And while of the 2.2%, Personal Consumption came in strong - as expected, as it was precisely the factor most impacted by pulling in demand forward courtesy of "April in February", 0.59% of the 2.2% was an increase in inventories, something which was not supposed to happen as it means that the quality of the economic growth in Q1 was far worse than expected. Cementing the ugly composition of Q1 GDP was fixed investment which added just a paltry 0.18% - this is the number which is critical for ongoing cashflow generation and unfortunately, the very low print means that growth outlook for Q2 is now even worse than before and we expect economists will promptly trim their already bearish predictions for Q2 GDP. Finally, government "consumption" subtracted just 0.6% from the total number, a decrease from the 0.84% in Q4, which means that once again the government is starting to become less of a detractor to growth - a dagger in the heart to anyone who claims there is "quality" in GDP growth. And the number you have all been waiting for: At March 31, US Debt/GDP was 100.8%.
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Funny you would say that when the biggest offender of goverment money and insider trading is Nancy Pelosi.
I'm only pointing out that at this point in time the R's hold the cards. Please don't infer that I think the Dem's are above that. Both parties are made up of men and women of the same ilk. I'm sure Pelosi will keep herself in the loop.
by "ilk" do you mean greedy spineless puppets?
Pretty much.
DOUBLE DIP RECESSION ON THE TABLE UNLESS WE GET QE OR THE LIKE
And if we get the QE, then the banksters will be richer (this doesnt escape the avg broke american at all) while theyre trying to pay $5 for gas. I'm ALL FOR it....go for it Ben!
Really! I am ready for them to really pissed off so maybe we can knock this off center. Getting real bored at this point.
The real economy is in recession. For you to get one on "print", the Fed's printer will have to fail and the gov will have to quit lying with all the econ numbers. Got to get a lot worse from here for them to admit it.
Double dip? We haven't left the depression that started in 2000.
You're right. The dot com bubble (excepting the handful of startups that actually had viable business models) and the housing bubble...they weren't real growth.
2.0% of GDP is imports and .73% is exports. Anyone see anything wrong with that picture?
Hold on, let me get my iPad...
If a tree falls in the forest and no one cares, does it make a sound???
Debt/GDP = 100.8%
We're driving below the "E".
How far can you go driving below the slash?
Like Thelma and Louise they went off a cliff.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuEdU_lrtZk
So, who does CNBS credit for a big up day in stocks. AMZN > GDP? Would not doubt it. Or is a manipulated (good) U of M CC # coming at 9:55.....as cover.
We'll see.
AMZN's .28 cent earnings and falling GDP are the superstars driving this crap heap higher!
SD-1 your bluntness just made me shoot coffee out of my nostrils into my Quotron. Absurd, isn't it?
Yes that whopping earnings report from Amazon that showed they did more to earn less.
The new American Model. Or as Eddie Lambert pined "Profitless Prosperity".
I cannot wait.
Amazon Earnings :.28
Last year: .44
Two years ago: .66
Three years ago: .42
I cannot wait until the same time next year.
Obviously Bullish!!!!
How the market keeps going up is beyond me. Spain high unemployment - U S higher unemployment - Nothing but gloom and doom.
Yet Bullish!!!!
For equities.
Debt/GDP 100.8%....well hell Ben get in there and print more debt then!
Big miss, but residential investment was up 19.1%. Watch Bernanke take credit for that.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/04/27/gdp-growth-of-2-2-below-expectations-of-2-5-but-residential-investment-up-19-1/
'Residential investment' whats that supposed to mean?
(takes a deep breath in through the nose)
Yep, that's some mighty-fine "recovery" I'm smelling, right there.
Very funny, that's got a Southern twang vocabulary twist to it. This is amazing, GDP goes down and the Fed just keeps pumping up the markets jeezus, how insane.
Does anyone want to guess how the markets would react if the Fed & CB's weren't printing money and pumping the markets up?
I guess the markets would be down at least 2%.
Anyone? This is insanity. I'm guessing they're just keeping the markets up until the stupid Facebook IPO comes out so all the In-Q-Tel folks (the venture capital arm of the CIA) get their cut. Wouldn't want to have our intell folks not getting their full 1000% of profits at the expense of mainstreet, now would we? That's just so UnAmerican! More profits to the militaryindustrial complex! 1000% isn't enough. oink oink oink
I don't want to sound bullish, but there are some positive to be had in this GDP print:
Again, there are negatives as well: GDP growth lagging expectations, fixed investments playing a small role in growth.
How the fuck is this market staying up....
DavidC
Its called the Fed prints the money, the Fed gives said money to banks at 1%, said banks buy worthless gov bonds and get 3%, said banks then buy equities and pump their own book, markets go higher, said banks look better on paper, people see market higher and know that all is well, Fed remains at top of heap of world debt that keeps all the little slaves workin away for that "American Dream". The world goes around.
We no longer have markets. We have policy tools. As long as the numbers come in bad the "market" knows the fed will print. The primary dealers and the larger instituions will support the "market" since they are closest to the newly printed money.
This is how it works today:
Spain is downgraded by S&P -- Market up 2%
Ford's profit is down --- Stock up
US misses GDP -- Market rallies higher
Bank of Japan prints like mad -- market falters
Europe falling into recession -- markets onward and upward
Central banks printing around the world -- gold and silver get crushed for months
Post office going broke and makes plans for cuts -- Congress says screw cuts here's $11 billion, waste some more.
Just sayin'.
When the curtain's pulled back, the monkeys pulling the levers will be revealed.
Howard Cosell got trashed for using a metaphor employing a monkey. Be careful what you say or the PC police will come knocking at your door.
humans, especially politicians willnot act to change the status quo until absolutely necessary. what does 'absolutely necessary look like? markets crashing uncontrollably (if thats possible anymore) more likely when there is actually no more money....local/state govts first....treasury/fed when global CBs are no longer united and start to splinter, causing rise in us rates which results in more fed purchses, which results in higher nominal market (for a time) and much higher (and continued) prices in commodity goods creating more true inflation. only when some of the biggest-wigs start to feel a pinch will they 'change course'
USA's fucked.
Yep, fucked right to the top of the shit pile.
it is truly amazing how disconnected the equity markets are from economic reality. but then of course equity markets live in a nominal world, and a market p/e of 16-17 would just reflect the level to which the US mkts are the best house in a bad neighborhood (which youre not supposed to buy).
of course joe-401 isnt getting into the market...makes no sense to him...weak to bad economic all around him, half his neighbors arent paying their mortgage, govt bails out banks instead of people, are were all supposed to be happy to wait and be 'trickled down upon'.
Hmmm, I guess market will only be up 60 or so today with the low GDP numbers. :-O
Everyday cannot be a 100+ rise. Only about 3 or 4 times a week.
By varying the amount of rise each day, the charts have wavy sections in them instead of a straight line going vertical (which might make Muppets believe someone was manipulating stock prices).
What pisses me off is Bernanke knew this while holding his bullshit press confrerence. And the damn liar sits there and flat out lies to us.
Wish someone had a voice stress analysis of that bastard and we could chart the lies as he was telling them.
My guess is the damn thing would show he's lying nearly all the time.
the consumption figure of 2.04% is going to come down...
BLACK SWAN!!!!!!! Dow went red. OMG!
OK, OK...relax.....back to green. Whewwwwww.
More banker bonuses will fix this.
We can't thank these men enough for what they've done.
They will just have to settle for multi-million dollar bonuses instead.
All is Well!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro
Heard the AP spin on the radio today. It went somthin like:
"The lower GDP reflects a increase in energy costs, but we are encouraged by the increase in consumer spending"
Consumers are increasing their spending on GAS. (no doubt, driving to the economic security office to pick up their checks)