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"The End Game: 2012 And 2013 Will Usher In The End" - The Scariest Presentation Ever?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

If Raoul Pal was some doomsday spouting windbag, writing in all caps, arbitrarily pasting together disparate charts to create 200 page slideshows, it would be easy to ignore him. He isn't. The founder of Global Macro Investor "previously co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul came to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe... Raoul Pal retired from managing client money in 2004 at the age of 36 and now lives on the Valencian coast of Spain, from where he writes." It is his writing we are concerned about, and specifically his latest presentation, which is, for lack of a better word, the most disturbing and scary forecast of the future of the world we have ever seen....

And we see a lot of those.

Consider this:

  • We are here...

  • We don’t know exactly what is to come, but we can all join the very few dots from where we are now, to the collapse of the first major bank…
  • With very limited room for government bailouts, we can very easily join the next dots from the first bank closure to the collapse of the whole European banking system, and then to the bankruptcy of the governments themselves.
  • There are almost no brakes in the system to stop this, and almost no one realises the seriousness of the situation.
  • The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives…
  • Yes, that equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations
  • From an EU crisis, we only have to join one dot for a UK crisis of equal magnitude.
  • And then do you think Japan and China would not be next?
  • And then do you think the US would survive unscathed?
  • That is the end of the fractional reserve banking system and of fiat money.
  • It is the big RESET.

It continues:

  • Bonds will be stuck at 1% in the US, Germany, UK and Japan (for this phase).
  • The whole bond market will be dead.
  • Short selling on bonds - banned
  • Short selling stocks – banned
  • CDS – banned
  • Short futures – banned
  • Put options – banned
  • All that is left is the Dollar and Gold

It only gets better. We use the term loosely:

  • We have around 6 months left of trading in Western markets to protect ourselves or make enough money to offset future losses.
  • Spend your time looking at the risks of custody, safekeeping, counterparty etc. Assume that no one and nothing is safe.
  • After that…we put on our tin helmets and hide until the new system emerges

And the punchline

From a timing perspective, I think 2012 and 2013 will usher in the end.

Enjoy:

 

 


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Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:05 | Link to Comment markar
markar's picture

So if the Feds are broke so will be the states. Who will pay for these armed troops you speak of and under whose command will they be?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:45 | Link to Comment my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

I am totally down for "hyper-localism"!  I have been thinking for some time now that it is the only way for humanity to survive.  Monopoly/centralization of govts, finance, and all of life is simply a BLACK HOLE waiting to suck the entire planet in.

I am preparing for my hyper-localism.  I am thankful that my family has working farmland...and guns to try and protect it.  

Will get very messy, though.  Time to put on our "westward-ho" outfits and circle up the conistogas!

The only TRUE reality is in what you can see, touch, feel, and hear close to you.  Make that your reality and your bulwark!

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:31 | Link to Comment The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Global McMacro-size me! 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:31 | Link to Comment zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

Time to strap on my big boy pants.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:19 | Link to Comment Tinky
Tinky's picture

Speaking of strap-ons...oh – wait, wrong forum.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:31 | Link to Comment Overdrawn
Overdrawn's picture

This is probably a daft question, but why don't all Governments just agree to write all the debt off?  Then every country in the world would have a clean slate.

 

 

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:35 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Please don't tell me you actually need an answer to that question... THERE ARE NO GOVERNMENTS... Only private banking interests...

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:38 | Link to Comment B-rock
B-rock's picture

... because all the banks would go to zero...

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:41 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

But if the banks are broke then so are the governments sooooooo......

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:59 | Link to Comment Arisu
Arisu's picture

..., they'll instead exchange treasury securities to get money to bail out the banks, bringing us deeper and deeper into tax slavery. Mission accomplished.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:54 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Because (a) debt is what bankers make money from, and (b) governments are owned by bankers, ergo (c) no debt writeoff.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:33 | Link to Comment FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

"All that is left is the Dollar and Gold"

 

Gold I can understand but $ is fiat.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:36 | Link to Comment duckarooni
duckarooni's picture

But otherwise everythings OK?

btw dont forget fukushima, that still has the potential to blow the euro crisis to the back page. 9 out of 10 fish agree.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:45 | Link to Comment lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

the lid is on that one with the media.  unless you believe the beloved 'george washington' and not many people do.

 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 20:20 | Link to Comment lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

apologies to those of you who do.  as soon as there is a majority - he would certainly be a better president than anyone except...... his hero.  personally, i love alex rodriguez and kobe bryant.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:39 | Link to Comment michaelsam9
michaelsam9's picture

*

*

This flies in the face of everything Jim Sinclair has been saying

* qe until infinity

* gold at $10k in 2015 to pay off foreign debt

* then mania phase for gold

* then reset of gold price at around $10k

* then return to normal interest rates 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:36 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

a massive capacity destruction event provides the cover for debt write offs, global one currency, eugenics and the final consolidation of wealth and dominion over the world by the .01%ers.that is the ultimate solution.

the unintended consequence will be a thousand years of peace among humans on earth because there will only be a half dozen left. that will be the real end of history.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:37 | Link to Comment Convolved Man
Convolved Man's picture

Hero's Lament

 

Damn, drew the short straw.

How about best two out of three?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 05:48 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

from page 28:

" ... The markets are at the frankly terrifying point. The markets are at the frankly terrifying point of realising that LTRO, EFSF, QE etc are of realising that LTRO, EFSF, QE etc are not going to prevent this collapse. ... "

Yeah, but ... TIME's Man-of-the-Year in 2009 said we're like, you know ... all saved and stuff now?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:38 | Link to Comment holdingontomypants
holdingontomypants's picture

Does that mean I will have to pay my mortgage in gold next year? Or silver dollars? And who would assign the value of my PM's?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:45 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you might want to find out who holds title to you mortgage first. for all you know it could be you! in which case "you'd be paying the bank your gold for something you already own and have paid for!"

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:58 | Link to Comment zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

If this goes down - screw paying your mortgage.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:40 | Link to Comment spooz
spooz's picture

I've been thinking about this since the financial crisis.  Somehow the central banks keep managing to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:44 | Link to Comment lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

hat is a kind term.

and - they keep getting to increase the bonus.

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:52 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Yeah but if you look closely the rabbit in the hat is a toy stuffed animal made in China. They haven't negated the seriousness of any of these charts. Similar to an 80 year old man they rip open his rib cage and put in a new heart. He's fine today but he'll be a POS tommorow.

Sad thing is we're all going to get fucked because our worthless coward leaders are only worried about themselves. Things could've been done, but now the damage is done. Sorry, but the charts clearly show the future. We're all entirely fucked beyond comprehension.

Even the select few that own gold are fucked unless you're in a heavily armed compound. Really? You have gold and you're surrounded by a million people that don't? Good luck with that.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:58 | Link to Comment Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

They haven't pulled a rabbit out of the hat, they've pulled purchasing power out of the buck.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:46 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Lesson in technical analysis: The last 4 charts are what's called an M/a pattern. They have a high % of playing out to the downside. The Feds hire the best technicians, they're well aware of it. Problem is it probably won't/can't be avoided. Yep.......total fucking flush coming. There will be bounces along the way that will catch all the stupid fuck citizens off guard as they will be used for such bullshit as "see we told you so" etc lol by our wonderful braindead shiteating politicians that deserve nothing less than decapitation.

NDAA, 30,000 drones etc............now please try and tell me they don't know what's coming.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:46 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

But Warren Buffet said stocks are cheap.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:49 | Link to Comment LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

The end of the world.. Hmmm, Does that include you and i?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:48 | Link to Comment realitybiter
realitybiter's picture

Holy Shite!

Did you read the date on that piece?  It is dated December 2011....we have 6 months from then!  That's like...like one day before the day after tomorrow.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:56 | Link to Comment FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

The opening page says Shanghai May 2012...

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:59 | Link to Comment The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Yeah... My copy says May 2012 but OK.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 06:31 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

While we're on this time-frame gig ... that puts it kinda close to Dec 21 2012 ... right?

LOL ... the gift that just keeps on giving ...

Golden-Age.

Is that what they meant?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:49 | Link to Comment 10044
10044's picture

closure of stock markets? sensational bullshit....

 

"QE to infinity and beyond" -- Jim Sinclair

 

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:50 | Link to Comment Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

Why do so many people seem to think that life without megabanks, global corporations, and Wall Street to rob them would be a bad thing? 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:17 | Link to Comment Arisu
Arisu's picture

Probably because the majority of people are not self-sufficient in any way but rather live their lives only because of their huge debts. If this cost-optimized just-in-time infrastructure with minimal inventories somehow collapses because of the instable finances, you can expect a zombie apocalypse in the most parts of the "civilized" world.

It's not easy to tell whether what comes afterwards will necessarily be better. TPTB might just use it as a welcome opportunity to shape a new world according to their agenda. People have willfully given up their rights to a fascist state in times of perceived crisis more than once. The common person wouldn't even know what else to do.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:50 | Link to Comment aphlaque_duck
aphlaque_duck's picture

Because most of them are unproductive, and therefore getting the better end of the deal.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:55 | Link to Comment aphlaque_duck
aphlaque_duck's picture

-dupe deleted-

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:42 | Link to Comment Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

To quote a well-known movie that explains this in part:

"The Matrix (Collaboration of governments with business & banking interests) is a system, Neo. That system is our enemy.  But when you're inside, you look around - what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters.  The very minds of the people we are trying to save. But until we do, these people are still part of that system, and that makes them our enemy.  You have to understand - most of these people are not ready to be unplugged.  And many of them are so inert, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it."

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:51 | Link to Comment Evil Bugeyes
Evil Bugeyes's picture

ECB head Draghi warns that euro financial structure is unsustainable in its current form:

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/05/31/euro-structure-is-unsustainable-...

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:07 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

Reminds me of Senator Palpatine telling ET and the rest of the aliens that they need consolidate the federation and give  him supreme control to fight the jedi.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYK6sTNhVL8

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:57 | Link to Comment unemployed
unemployed's picture

But But But But the DTCC says there is only a Billion CDS net....

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:02 | Link to Comment The Gooch
Sat, 06/02/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

He is a Student from Kenya.  I know of someone else that lived in Kenya that used to eat Dog meat.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:04 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The only reason Ben isn't printing is because he hates to be pegged by Peter Schiff, who is right again.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:08 | Link to Comment hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

It will not be the end of the world, this has already happened many many times, Argentina , Mexico, Zimbabwe and many other third world nations........................................ except this will be a global event........developed nations have no clue what it's like as they have not lived it, ............................. what is for sure is there will be a lot of money changing hands, redistribution of wealth, generally poor people will become poorer, midle class people will become poor, some rich people will become poor or middle class and some elite groups will become wealthier.....some smart minorities will do better..... (you want to be one of them!!)

Inflation will be around, shortages will be the rule of the day for many items, hunger will be more pervasive, crime will increase, many governments will fall and some wars will get triggered, but generally humanity will still be around, the main difference is it will happen on a global scale...........

If there is any Mexicans , Argentinians or otherwise people from countries that have lived this before in recent imes (post 1960's), I would like your feedback.......they are still around after a lot of suffering but that's what's coming!!!!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:11 | Link to Comment Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Read " Surviving the Economic Collapse by Fernando "ferfal" Aguirre who went through the 2001 economic collapse in Argentina 2001. Some one here on ZH recommended it (sorry I forgot who). Absolutely the best book Ive read on the subject. Very practical and down to earth info.

Miffed:-)

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:07 | Link to Comment 2tired 2share
2tired 2share's picture

Hey there Tony Wison, Nice Virus attached to your link. Should have known better.

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:08 | Link to Comment Ocean22
Ocean22's picture

Great.... broke, jobless, radiated, depressed, hungry, cold, no tv, can it get any worse???

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:20 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yes you are past due on your internet bill. Your service ends tomorrow.

Sincerly

Your friendly neighborhood cable company.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:58 | Link to Comment WoodMizer
WoodMizer's picture

Assuming the internet remains stable I think the ZH community will have enough PMs to keep connected.  One can only dream of an internet free from central bank backing trolls.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:12 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Two words...... Kill switch.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:12 | Link to Comment headless blogger
headless blogger's picture

...and the Rockechilds will save the day with a solution we can't refuse.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:14 | Link to Comment Mister Minsk
Mister Minsk's picture

I think I'm going to have another bottle of Stoli...

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:15 | Link to Comment JackT
JackT's picture

Tyler, do you support Raoul's conclusions?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:19 | Link to Comment woolybear1
woolybear1's picture

why would anyone pay for this crap, it has all been said here for the past several years

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:22 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

Can't wait.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:22 | Link to Comment IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

Da Bearz!

 

I can see fat CDS uber bearz attempting cartwheels in glee 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:24 | Link to Comment reader2010
reader2010's picture

Debt is Money, Spending is Savings, and War is Peace. Leveraged like there is no tomorrow, untill all nation states all collapse at the feet of those biggie captial holders, such RothFellors. Long live the King!

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:26 | Link to Comment cjbosk
cjbosk's picture

The sad truth is that the "end" is nowhere in sight folks. The fed can print longer than you can remain sane, for lack of a better description. Let's face it, you and I both know the fed can increase their balance sheet another 3X...and probably everything will seem "normal".

You have to be flexible and understand that the problem and attempted solutions are much, much larger than your mind can fathom. All I know is that first comes deflation. We're in the throws of that right now...and later comes inflation and no, not hyperinflation. For a good read and description of how we got here and how this unfolds I suggest "End Game" by John Mauldin. There is light at the end of the tunnel and no, it's not a train.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:53 | Link to Comment El
El's picture

Oh, I disagree. Other countries are not going to continue tolerating our devaluing of the currency indefinitely. China is already ticked off at all the QE. Oh, and where are you seeing deflation? There is so much liquidity sloshing around and it is showing up in pricing. I don't see deflation right now at all.

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:56 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Disagree wholeheartedly.  The Fed prints and the world eats shit. Either we have a collapse or run away infation and then collapse. if the fed could piss all of our problems away by printing it would have been done with a massive dose right from the start. We have edged ourselves to the edge of the cliff.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Does the light mean we're dead and going to Heaven?

 

 

In Heaven, everything is fine!

In Heaven, everything is fine!

In Heaven, everything is fine!

You got your good things, and I got mine.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:28 | Link to Comment Richard Whitney
Richard Whitney's picture

Where is Howard Ruff when we need him?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:33 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm suddenly feeling a lot better about the $1,500 I just laid out for my latest AR.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:33 | Link to Comment Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Maybe because I don't spend my day chasing money (not to offend anyone here), but I welcome a RESET.

What counts as "success" can only have fertile ground with a reset at this point for millions of us who are otherwise unnaturally constrained by debt and specifically the lack of access to credit.  Money matters, but only to the extent we decide as a society that it does.

How we define, finally, the utility of money, will be crucial to the level of our success (read happiness) going forward.

Bring It and may the odds be ever in our favour.  Fuck the current owners and their definition of money.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:34 | Link to Comment Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

I'm with you, YQ.  And perhaps in the process I'll be able to recoup some of my losses playing in a game where the Fed is secretly on the other side of all the trades, not letting the market itself slip too far down the rabbithole in a single day and always with the hand on the switch to juice things up a bit about 1/2 hour before the close.

With the reverse splits even breaking even is a challenge, I'll admit.

I really personally could give a shit if Goldman Sucks, Chase, Citi and all the rest go away for good.  And they all will at the 1st hint of "mark to market" when the money's all gone.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:49 | Link to Comment Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

I hope you recoup better than some of your losses, for what its worth.  And I truly respect the talents it must take to navigate a single day of trading.  We will all see eachother on the other side of this.  World is Turn'n and with the luck WE can make of it, for hte better.

 

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:35 | Link to Comment tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Lehman almost started the dominos rolling right here in the good ol USSA. You wonder why they had to pass TARP to the tune of 700 Billion in less then 48 hours? The big banks were going down, their derivative PONZI was about to implode and take the dollar with it. Within 48 hours we started to spackle and paint the Derivative hole to cover it up for nobody to see. Then a few months later they rolled out the stimulus plan, another 900 Billion. Then we got HAMP, QE1,QE2, ZIRP,OPERATION TWIST, CASH FOR CLUNKERS, CASH FOR REFRIGERATORS, CASH FOR EVERYBODY! Well my friends I hate to tell you but using fuzzy math and off balance BS from Banks via the FED they managed to hoodwink most people into believing that the crisis was over and we were on our way to recovery. In the process of trying to keep the derivative ponzi from imploding they have burned through roughly 10 TRILLION, 10 TRILLION we will never see again. Now comes the crash of 2012, the money is gone and they have simply run out of paint and the hole is back. This time however it won't be the USA that starts the crash, It will be the EU Zone. Big difference now because the fingers will be pointed in a different direction and the almighty Dollar will be considered a safe zone, not the real culprit  that actually took the entire system down to begin with...

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:43 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

But it did provide 4 years to get ready for the final collapse.  Continue to stack, bought my place out of the city, much better armed, nice ammo stash, etc.  I am far better prepared than I was in 2008.  

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:46 | Link to Comment mademesmile
mademesmile's picture

Agree, but I thought it was closer to 5 trillion. You know, 5 million, million.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:36 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Tick, tick, tick, tick, tick..Kaboom

 

Derivatives Disaster Beyond Wall Street-2010 

Thank goodness we have international folks in the USA drafting new US Panic laws to execute J6P in comfort stories of kicking the [Tall boy] beer can down the road a bit further.. 

"If I had a perfect day

I would have it start this way

Open up the fridge and have a tall boy

Yeah..."

 The Logan Act (18 U.S.C.A. § 953 [1948]) is a single federal statute making it a crime for a citizen to confer with foreign governments against the interests of the United States. Specifically, it prohibits citizens from negotiating with other nations on behalf of the United States without authorization.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:38 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

My IChing says August. August is the time to prepare for winter. Get out of all markets in August.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 19:17 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Mine says September. WTF?!

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:43 | Link to Comment ShortTheUS
ShortTheUS's picture

I wish Tyler would post Art Cashin's perspective on the potential of the upcoming apocalypse:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000093372&play=1

If the chairman of the Fermentation Committee is afraid, we should all be afraid.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:46 | Link to Comment Jim B
Jim B's picture

+1.  If I was in Europe, I would be buying PMs or another currency! 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:44 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

All these doomsayers - it's a process, not an event.

 

Even the Dow in 2007 took a year and a half to reach bottom.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/index/djia/weekly/

 

They'll stop the shorts and kill the market instantly and then start the shorts back up again.  

 

It's not peak oil or wall street, it's peak government and peak debt.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:12 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

 

 

Sounds like you’ve got everything figured out. We're so happy that your aboard. Allow me to take your photo next to the Queen during a gauntlet stunt. 

On the count of three, say cheese.. 1,2,3  <cheese>  Click

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:54 | Link to Comment Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

The moment we have all been waiting for is at hands folks.  This is it.  It wont be today or tomorrow but its right around the corner.  Finalize preparations.  Buy a face mask.  The zombies are coming to eat it off.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 05:29 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Was that cannibal and his victim hors d'oeuvres for the great feast?

Florida Cop Says The Cannibal Victim's Face Was 'Eaten Down To His Goatee' - Business Insider

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:55 | Link to Comment Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

It was best of times, it was the worst of times.

 

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:57 | Link to Comment Pampalona
Pampalona's picture

But the world works fine - we can make enough food for all etc etc, the problem discussed here is debt/derivatives, a bunch of numbers in cyberspace.... why the fuck cant that just go away and let the 6 billion folks who want to work get on with working and creating value? If there are 6 billion humans ready and willing to work and co-operate how can rich peoples badly placed bets prevent that?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:12 | Link to Comment Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Because the 1% has the capital while the 99% has the skills.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:39 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

even if we say that is true, i think we can also see his point might be more along the lines that the sun shines on every shithead, rich and poor alike;  the wind;  the rain; and the stars

he's not speaking of theory of capital, wealth distribution or economics so much as about the way things function in nature, perhaps?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:16 | Link to Comment wretch
wretch's picture

Underlying all the bullshit is a severe energy crisis.  Growth has limits.  I'm sorry to be the one to tell you.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 01:06 | Link to Comment hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

Once the SHTF, the energy crisis will vanish for quite sometime as the depression will ensure energy demand will go down quite significantly, as an example even with China growing at 8%/year since 2008, their electricity compsumption is tracking down.... wait till this thing collapses worldwide.......................you won't be able to even fix your car due to parts shortages...........

Better get used to living in a local micro economy, get out of big cities with no public transit......

Most people won't even be able to afford a car and the associated expenses that go with it.....

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:20 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Because you had peeps like David Rothkopf spouting off about the new superclass DNA inbreeds back in 2007.

 

Carnegie Endowment for Peace

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:58 | Link to Comment Coldfire
Coldfire's picture

That is the end of the fractional reserve banking system and of fiat money.

Finally!

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 06:07 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

The fractional reserve banking system has been growing in an official national capacity since the 17th century. It existed for centuries before that, before even the Medici in the 13th century. In fact there are some reasons to believe it goes back millennia. During all of that time, gold was money.

The operative word being "growing". It inevitably leads to a crisis for the debtors and at each step it has grown larger to overcome the instability. From a starting point today of many national currencies based on fractional reserve banking the next step is regional or continental currencies (like the Euro) and finally, a single world wide currency based on fractional reserve banking.

Just some perspective for you.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:57 | Link to Comment khakuda
khakuda's picture

Great, nowhere to hide.  This will help me sleep tonight.  Thanks.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:02 | Link to Comment Haole
Haole's picture

I hope this guy can look in the mirror and be honest with himself as to who is to blame, if only in part, for where he thinks we are in this mess.  Then again, an ex-banker writing from his coastal Spanish villa...  Your soul is already damned anyway, Pal.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:06 | Link to Comment DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

He's wrong about the "daawler" (as my favotire Cannuk reporter calls it).

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:05 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

I really would like to hear a spirited defense of the derivatives market in its current incarnation and order of magnitude.

Any talkers?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:08 | Link to Comment DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Fukushima Reactor 4, it's all good, let's have tuna and talk about it.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:59 | Link to Comment realtick
realtick's picture

Tunashima

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:03 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

No sane person could defend the loan sharks and their failed greed unregulated otc dervivatives...except JP Morgue and Goldman Sacks.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 02:39 | Link to Comment Catullus
Catullus's picture

If you were able to quantify the number and magnitude of promises in previous generations prior to a massive default on those promises, it'd probably look a lot like the current derivatives market. 

Not that I think the system can or should be saved, but the IRS and FX Swap markets are probably the only things keeping this from melting down completely right now.  I'd rather that the Fed use the major banks to underwrite IRS and FX swaps that prevent systemic collapse than actually printing the money to move the markets that the dervatives are mirroring.  It's a little bit of tail wagging the dog and it's unsustainable.  But there is probably a hope that the underlying exposure can be mitigated before people on the other side of the trade start calling in their promises.

Which would you rather have?  The Fed printing money to push down the dollar or the Fed using JPM to underwrite Dollar swaps that are effectively shorts? Or the Fed printing money to buy every bond on the planet or underwriting the IRS that makes someone believe they're "hedged" against a rise in interest rates?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:08 | Link to Comment Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

I've been saying we need a RESET since 2008; I guess the smart money is now agreeing.  In any event, I think we'll see more posts like this one and Biderman's today.  I haven't checked into Max Keiser yet, but he has to be bouncing off the walls.  Poor Stacy.

If you want to be REALLY scared read this: http://halfpasthuman.com/summertime.html

Good luck, everyone.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:24 | Link to Comment Haole
Haole's picture

There is just seemingly too many ducks in a row amidst everything from cryptic proclamations by the Rockefeller Foundation to movie trailers to architectural symbolism that could result in something really nasty happening in London this Summer.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 04:53 | Link to Comment Sent by the hand
Sent by the hand's picture

I cashed out my IRA's.  Will the IRS be here in April of 2013??  This could be a great year!!!!

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:13 | Link to Comment tecno242
tecno242's picture

Thats pretty much how I see it playing out as well.  There is no other outcome at this point besides a big reset.  Political parties are no longer capable of fixing the mounting problems.  Fixing debt with more debt will not work and they will not change that path even in the face of total meltdown.

The worlds leaders are addicted to denial.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:15 | Link to Comment DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

The worlds leaders are addicted to denial.

Or keeping the masses in denial so they can keep their heads off a stake?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:30 | Link to Comment tecno242
tecno242's picture

If thats the case, they are simply far to arrogant that they can personally avoid the coming meltdown that they are creating.  I honestly believe there are very few in positions of true leadership that are capable of truly understanding whats in this document.

I always say, why aren't you taught about money in school?  Something you'll use your entire life.. why isn't the history of money, the fractional reserve system and definition of what money is taught?  Seems like its an awfully important topic to just skip except for one class about how to balance a check book.

The simple and truthful answer is that they don't want you to know.

 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 01:12 | Link to Comment TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Bingo!!! We have a winner. One of the 2 primary tools of control is ignorance, it allows the powers that be to paint a false reality with the 24/7 television/immersion propaganda system.

If you understood history and knew why the world is the way it is, you wouldn't beleive the bullshit on television and you wouldn't be wasting your hours immersed in empty electronic dreams and manipulation.

every hour spent watching tv is an hour of your life stolen. When you die, will you say to yourself, "I wish I would of watched more TV." ?

Run away from the puppetmasters. Understand the history of money and the present becomes little more than lies and illusions. Find the truth among the bullshit and hold onto it, because that is all that will be left when the bullshit vaporizes.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:17 | Link to Comment printmoremoney
printmoremoney's picture

Bankruptcy and Prison will solve all this BS. The Sheeple will want to see some Banksters swing. I can live with that. If the legal system works, we will all live to enjoy another day. All the Debt is illegal. Wipe the hard drive at the BIS and we are all free. Not even a shot fired this time. SO SIMPLE!

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:20 | Link to Comment Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

Have any of you technicians out there been noticing the head & shoulders patterns on DBB and all the industrial commodity companies?  Am I looking at those charts right? 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:25 | Link to Comment crawl
crawl's picture

That was a very dire forecast.  And it could happen.  I need a drink.  That's one dark scenario.  Too dark for my liking.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:31 | Link to Comment BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Who holds most all the outstanding (not entitlement) debts?

The Rothchild/Rockefeller/Swiss/Big Banks I bet holds trillions.

Fuck em. Default on everything.

Re-Rack....

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:59 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Yep the Rockefeller/Rothschilds are deeply indebted to those masses who they intimidate to bail them out of their freak show Trilateral Commission dystopia.

Default and let the money masters swim naked.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:34 | Link to Comment indio007
indio007's picture

In the world of fiat what does it matter?  The decimal place is arbitrary.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:36 | Link to Comment americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

I sure am glad that I'm 71 and not 18. Good luck kids.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:40 | Link to Comment DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Don't you have kids & grandkids?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:58 | Link to Comment Arisu
Arisu's picture

There is a positive side to it: it gives society a chance to learn and evolve.

The central planners try to hide society's unsustainable behavior by burying the consequences with unlimited funds, legal support and media acceptance. It takes away the possibility for everyone to get hurt, notice what happened, and rethink the way they spend their money and plan their life.

It's sad that it couldn't have happened sooner, with less pain, but it has to happen if you want any real change of behavior. Everything else are just empty words by people who claim they have the solution to it all.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 03:45 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

The central planners try to hide society's unsustainable behavior by burying the consequences with unlimited funds, legal support and media acceptance. It takes away the possibility for everyone to get hurt, notice what happened, and rethink the way they spend their money and plan their life.

________________________________________

What is good with US citizen hijacking of humanity, that is they can end with that kind of stories.

Society's unsustainable behaviour? No. US citizen societies unsustainable behaviour.

Taking away the possibility of? But millions are (and billions are planned to be) pushed under the train to maintain US citizens in their life style.

The price of US citizen way of life is paid. Simply not by US citizens.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 06:58 | Link to Comment Arisu
Arisu's picture

Bro, it's not just US citizens. People here in Europe and everywhere else partake in this just as much as US citizens do. They are supporting this illusory game with their paychecks and with their life savings. They are not considering any ethics, they just expect the money to work for them -- no matter how and what the consequences.

The only thing people really vote with is their fucking money and they are happy to give it to corporations that employ child slaves in third world countries to make electronics for their iGadgets so they can post more self-important bullshit on their FaceBook, to corporations supplying the government with military equipment and then pushing for war, to corporations engaging in deliberate animal torture to optimize their costs, to media corporations engaging in censorship, to the oil and coal industry... I think you get the point.

The fraction of people willing to pay more, but knowing that the money is invested into things that will improve their offspring's future world, is not the majority... at all. It's a disgrace when considering what some of our ancestors both in Europe and the US have given up just in order for the future world to have a life in freedom and peace. People's ethics nowadays honestly are comparable to what you find in Brave New World and I find that scary, even disgusting.

Any you really should get over that idea that there's only a select few who are the scapegoat and that wiping them off the map will instantly solve everything. It's obvious, that this is not the case.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 06:58 | Link to Comment twotraps
twotraps's picture

agree, my daughter just turned 2

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:40 | Link to Comment Jim B
Jim B's picture

Agree with the author.  The derivatives are the nuclear weapons of the finance sector and all of the regulators and governing bodies have been captured. A sad state of affairs.....

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:42 | Link to Comment SilverWillDeliver
SilverWillDeliver's picture

Bullets and Bullion

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:44 | Link to Comment JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture
Euro break-up 'could wipe 50pc off London house prices'


A break-up of the euro could see London property prices halve as the world’s wealthy house buyers look elsewhere once more, say economists.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 05:15 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Lol, and Soc Gen was saying that the London RE bubble was the safest HAVEN for Oligarchy money. Nowhere to run nowhere to hide ill gotten gains. Yes the one square mile will have some sleepless nights as the Olympics unfurl their midsummer night's dream of 2012. Imagine Cameron now singing....Please, please, please don't do THIS to MEEEEE! Eurozone, just hang in there and forget all the speculation WE have unleashed to bring you down. 'Cos what we started, we DON'T want to see finished, its our hides that we have nailed to the London Eye. Oh, the pain of seeing Euro melt away! Ah, Out out, damned spot!

The 10 Most Important Cities For Super Rich People - Business Insider

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:47 | Link to Comment realtick
realtick's picture

Great charts, but here is the big one:

http://i46.tinypic.com/2aflx90.png

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:54 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

'cassandra's are lonesome characters - how quickly,... they, are forsaken'd on a whiff of roses, spun by machiavellian scents, in a garden of thorns, shrouded only in the mist of  philosopher`stones  -- as the nite turns morrow - their latent, and cursive predictions -an epiphany of goodwill - knowing all to well, brings about castigation, denial and disdain, all for prophetsizing truth in a viper's den where all god's children have indulged in unremorseful greed - the ultimate sin?'

great article :-))  tyler

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:48 | Link to Comment TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

If the mob comes to my house looking for gold and food, I'm giving them my canned California Tuna. Then all I have to do is wait until dark, and shoot the little glow worms.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:49 | Link to Comment TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

dupe

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:51 | Link to Comment TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

Dupe

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:55 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Genuine capital and genuine people instinctively  understand that the powerbrokers have gone crazy.  Therefore, batten down the hatches, and watch the Bilderberg Group and Trilateral Commission implode.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:52 | Link to Comment BLACK_DOG
BLACK_DOG's picture

i'm going long on bourbon!

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:09 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Spain will likely go short rope and long drops .  ETA will beat up BIS.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 02:45 | Link to Comment CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

My Bourbon never seems to last long, always buying more, always seem short the amount I need.

I'm short the bourbon I long for....ya that's it.

CC

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:57 | Link to Comment harleyjohn45
harleyjohn45's picture

Lets see he was a hedgefund trader buying and selling derivatives.  How in hell did we end up with 700 trillion in deratives.  All the banksters and hedge funds brought it upon themselves.  I meant to say us.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:59 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Fuck that. Just the lead in to this story is too terrifying. I can't read this document. I'll never sleep again.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 06:10 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Not even if you had Marilyn's ghost to soothe you?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:07 | Link to Comment hankwil74
hankwil74's picture

This will happen one day, maybe not in the next 2 years, and for the guy living on his personal 3.7 acre farm in rural Tennessee, nothing will change.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:12 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

hank...

Ditto for the family living among community in New England. Bless you and ours, friend.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 09:48 | Link to Comment lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Right On!

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:08 | Link to Comment jarrollin
jarrollin's picture

Yeah, just put your tin hat on.  Then go find someplace to hide.  Then wait until the "new" system emerges.  Makes it sound like a summer break, or something. 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 05:03 | Link to Comment Sent by the hand
Sent by the hand's picture

Don't do tinfoil hats.  ALCOA got absorbed into the Morgan empire and then into the Rocks's nest.  Reynold's wrap is.....well it's Reynolds and they are illuminati too.  A true conspiracy nut wraps his head in  organic honey.  And thats why they killed all the bee's.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:22 | Link to Comment Whoahthere
Whoahthere's picture

I thought Ru Paul is a gay/bi/transvestite whatever with a show on Bravo TV.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:23 | Link to Comment cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

Ironic isn't it?  While militaries prepare. terrorists hunted down, weapons of mass destruction sought, manufactured, traded and used to threaten, the thing that will bring modern civilization to its knees is paper.  An innocuous. piece of paper with terms no one understands including the two sides signing it, which is a called a derivative and is what terrorizes as there are too many of them floating around.

Why don't we save the world and outlaw them along with deficit spending by governments right now?  Let both sides of the contract keep what they have and walk away.  Governments can cut back big time without affecting the services which are really important,  We really don't need anymore nukes and such do we?

Simple solution for one big headache and let the world deal with what is left over.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:54 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

The Bilderberg Group meeting in Virginia this weekend gathers all the powerbrokers and political pets, the will of the Trilateral Commission; the Rockefeller/Rothschild cabal.

There will be no peace and prosperity for the common person so long as these powerbroker corporate psychopaths rule.

They are the ruin of the Republic, the USA, and the rest of the world too.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 19:13 | Link to Comment lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

I think they are going to decide whether to blow off The International Man of Mystery and pick Mittens up as their new lackey.

At least he doesn't eat dogs.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 02:19 | Link to Comment Amagnonx
Amagnonx's picture

Any solution presupposes that someone has political power that actually wants to fix things, and they dont really care what the consequences are for the current controllers.

 

For me, this should be an opportunity to move from democracy to a free society where the state monopoly on law and taxation are broken.

 

A free society should also recognise the following issues which are currently permissible, but which should be excised from a healthy society.

 

Usury, rent taking, taxation and fractional reserve fraud.

 

Lending money at interest or renting real estate creates a problem, firstly it is immoral to make gain without producing, and renting money and land concentrates wealth and leads inevitably to oligarchs, rulers and want to be kings.  While renting out capital goods such as houses and apartments - is fine, because they require labor to produce and depreciate.

 

Fractional reserve banking is simply fraud, along with the fiat central banking system that supports it, taxation is purely theft - regardless of what platitudes are used to justify it (for the children .. barf).

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:47 | Link to Comment Function
Function's picture

Wow this is not the "scariest presentation ever." CTFO...

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:50 | Link to Comment amanfromMars
amanfromMars's picture

Methinks this says it all and more, ...... in a nutshell and acorn of a post here ...... http://heddinout.com/?p=7251#comment-12834

Towers was asked, “Will you tell me why a government with power to create money, should give that power away to a private monopoly, and then borrow that which parliament can create itself, back at interest, to the point of national bankruptcy?” He replied, “If Parliament wants to change the form of operating the banking system, then certainly that is within the power of Parliament.”

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:08 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Quite, and then the Republic of my forbears said: come and get if you want it. Back off or bleed. We give our money, our souls, our everything to defeat your central bank, your monarchy, your elitist shameful crookery.

New England is as it ever was. It's quiet ways and neighbourly manner should never be mistaken for acquiescence to a brutal authority.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 09:37 | Link to Comment Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I think it was Greenspan that said yesterday morning on CNBC that instead of the Income Tax that the Government should just print the Money.  I almost fell off my chair.

Yet, he does have a point as without Income Tax the spending power of the People would go up tremendously and bring the Economy out of the Recession.

What an interesting statement by Greenspan.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:06 | Link to Comment bullet357
bullet357's picture

Here is the Truth of the Matter!!  I was at two different gun stores in the last 3 days and was told the same thing.  Do not expect anymore ammo to be coming from the distributors especially 223cal. and 40cal. They said what you see is what we have and will not be getting anymore. Told a couple of friends this and they made calls and was getting same story...No MORE AMMO will be shipped from suppliers.  The SHIT is about to HIT THE FAN.  Two words to live by in the coming days FOOD & AMMO!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 02:15 | Link to Comment jomama
jomama's picture

not that i don't believe you, but i'm gonna have to confirm this for myself in the mornin' time.

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