• Knave Dave
    05/23/2016 - 18:16
    This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve...

"The End Game: 2012 And 2013 Will Usher In The End" - The Scariest Presentation Ever?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If Raoul Pal was some doomsday spouting windbag, writing in all caps, arbitrarily pasting together disparate charts to create 200 page slideshows, it would be easy to ignore him. He isn't. The founder of Global Macro Investor "previously co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul came to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe... Raoul Pal retired from managing client money in 2004 at the age of 36 and now lives on the Valencian coast of Spain, from where he writes." It is his writing we are concerned about, and specifically his latest presentation, which is, for lack of a better word, the most disturbing and scary forecast of the future of the world we have ever seen....

And we see a lot of those.

Consider this:

  • We are here...

  • We don’t know exactly what is to come, but we can all join the very few dots from where we are now, to the collapse of the first major bank…
  • With very limited room for government bailouts, we can very easily join the next dots from the first bank closure to the collapse of the whole European banking system, and then to the bankruptcy of the governments themselves.
  • There are almost no brakes in the system to stop this, and almost no one realises the seriousness of the situation.
  • The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives…
  • Yes, that equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations
  • From an EU crisis, we only have to join one dot for a UK crisis of equal magnitude.
  • And then do you think Japan and China would not be next?
  • And then do you think the US would survive unscathed?
  • That is the end of the fractional reserve banking system and of fiat money.
  • It is the big RESET.

It continues:

  • Bonds will be stuck at 1% in the US, Germany, UK and Japan (for this phase).
  • The whole bond market will be dead.
  • Short selling on bonds - banned
  • Short selling stocks – banned
  • CDS – banned
  • Short futures – banned
  • Put options – banned
  • All that is left is the Dollar and Gold

It only gets better. We use the term loosely:

  • We have around 6 months left of trading in Western markets to protect ourselves or make enough money to offset future losses.
  • Spend your time looking at the risks of custody, safekeeping, counterparty etc. Assume that no one and nothing is safe.
  • After that…we put on our tin helmets and hide until the new system emerges

And the punchline

From a timing perspective, I think 2012 and 2013 will usher in the end.

Enjoy:

 

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Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:07 | 2481986 Richardk888
Richardk888's picture

Honorable John Corzine

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:20 | 2482238 Bizaro World
Bizaro World's picture

Honest politician

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:18 | 2482411 CPL
CPL's picture

Civil Servant.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:12 | 2482506 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Civil unrest...?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:10 | 2481997 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

Real Money

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:13 | 2482004 pods
pods's picture

Junk Silver, I like the sound of that. Yes, pun intended.

Love that ping.

pods

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:55 | 2482345 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Marital sex.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 01:55 | 2482644 Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

Rational expectations

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:35 | 2481884 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

The wackos will be buying more guns and ammo

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:00 | 2481966 IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

I must be a wacko.  I was reading this article thinking:  I need another shotgun, and some more buckshot.  And another bag of rice.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:56 | 2482145 IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

Someone gave me a thumbs down?  What's the matter?  Don't like rice?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:18 | 2482226 Mr. Fix
Mr. Fix's picture

Love you on MW, love you here too.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 09:08 | 2483469 IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

Thanks!  The only two places I post :)

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:11 | 2482203 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

I just bought a year's supply of food - I haven't slept this good in a while.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:23 | 2482243 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

And when the 50 hungry neighbors say gee, Crimson hasn't come out of his crib for a month, he must have food stored...gulp

 

Learn to live with/like Sasquatch

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:21 | 2482517 CIABS
CIABS's picture

CrimsonAvenger:  Great.  Now buy a Handbook of English Grammar and Usage and start reading.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 09:41 | 2483684 XitSam
XitSam's picture

Do you know how to cook it? How will you cook it? Where will you get water if not from the faucet? Will your electric company be able to buy fuel from suppliers? 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:26 | 2482254 Bizaro World
Bizaro World's picture

Not Wacko, just a terrorist...just ask DHS.

Send in the drones...

/sarc

Scary times, prepare well, desperate gov't/banksters/judges will do desperate things. Stack it high and not just your PM.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:02 | 2482164 Abiotic Oil
Abiotic Oil's picture

And if the wheels do come off the buggy, all the "good" whackos and the "bad" whackos will have guns. You will not. The good whackos will keep the bad whackos away from their property with their guns. The bad whackos will then go to your home and do the standard rape and pillage dealio because you can't stop them.

Indian women know the score.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/21/indian-women-take-up-firearms

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:12 | 2482211 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

This presentation is over the top. We'll see a lot of this stuff as the recession spreads and recognition sets in.

No matter, it is a very bearish picture looking ahead for equities & commodities, and yes, the central banks should get their fair share of blame for exacerbating the mispricing of risk.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:47 | 2481922 OneEyedJack
OneEyedJack's picture

Today was a good day.  I had

1.   Electricity, For hot water shower and cooking.

2.   Running Water, for cooking anf flushing.

3.   Gasoline,  To use for where I choose to go

4.   Grocery Store, To fulfill the need to eat.

Man,  These Are The Good old days our kids will talk about.

 

just sayin

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:01 | 2481968 IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

Well said!

It was an even better day, because:

1.  I made more money than I spent.

2.  Silver is still on sale.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:09 | 2481994 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

And Mama cooked breakfast in the morning with no hog.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:18 | 2482413 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Today I didn't have to use my AK.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:48 | 2482567 Yellow Tang
Yellow Tang's picture

2 in the morning got the fat burger.....I gotta say it wa a good day.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 06:44 | 2482885 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Messed around & got a triple double...

~~~

(not to mention... my jimmy runs deep, so deep put her butt to sleep)

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:01 | 2481969 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

all these things are temptations that make us weak.  we were strong of body and will, wild and free.  then someone tasted the "sugar" somewhere and the dive into weakness began.  not that there is anything wrong with such an experience.

but to think that being deprived of such things makes life anything other than life is...odd.

 

I am used to the dollar bill, so shall we look back upon this time when dollars were present as anything other than a trip, a temptation, a journey?

it is similar with every "oh I just need that in my life all the time" thing.

whatever did man do before cars when he had to walk or ride a horse?  O-M-G they were is SHIT then I bet.

/giggle/  I josh!

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:45 | 2482116 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

I have a horse! :-)

 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 01:56 | 2482646 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I got a saddle !!!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:12 | 2483097 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Hulk, if you have a saddle does that mean we can ride you?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 23:33 | 2486710 Hulk
Hulk's picture

For the sake of the children here, I have to withhold my answer...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:47 | 2484065 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

Honeee, babyyyy, MINE!!!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 23:36 | 2486711 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Together, we goin ride, ride, ride...

(my compliments to Mel Tillis, for providing this brief respite from worldwide financial collapse)

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:14 | 2482008 westboundnup
westboundnup's picture

Our kids might believe you.  Their kids might not.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:29 | 2482058 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

After all the GMO soy that you and your kids will have eaten, your grandkids generations will not be in a position to disbelieve anything because they'll be sterile and retarded with low birth weights, high infant mortality, and hair growing out of their gums around their teeth, among other deformities.  Google it if you haven't.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 02:02 | 2482651 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

and after you've googled it, get yourself a small magnifying glass & do some detective work at the supermarket - shit's in everything, I kid you not.

plus many upvotes of reality.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:24 | 2482246 smb12321
smb12321's picture

I don't know why folks think that a financial collapse will mean the physical destruction of buildings or a retreat in technology.   Bridges will still stand, electricity will still flow, food will still grow and be picked - only things will cost much more and increasingly, non-local items will become scarce.   I can't imagine why we'd use horses or wash clothes in the river.  

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:35 | 2482539 Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

Why is this guy trashed?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 01:06 | 2482590 Itch
Itch's picture

Because thats the reality doomers hope for, thats the only reality in which they would be of any use.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 05:03 | 2482785 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Because if you expect people to work for paper currency which is worthless, you are deluding yourself and others. More likely there will be riots and empty store shelves.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:31 | 2482535 Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

Unfortunately for governments and bankers, you will still have all those things after their oh-so-important financial system falls apart.  This is not the end of the world for the functional economy.  Just the fraudulent paper economy.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:47 | 2482119 lailapa
lailapa's picture

The end of the world is near ...The ten plagues of Pharaoh “have been brought upon” the USA.

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.gr/2010/02/ten-plagues-of-pharaoh.html

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:20 | 2482232 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

The end of the world has been coming since the dawn of time. It will still be coming after we get through this. Maybe, if we have a meltdown in Europe, it develops into a deep recession. Either way, the world will go on.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:59 | 2482162 HomeBrewPrepper
HomeBrewPrepper's picture

I thought he was going to talk about nibiru, or 2012. But whatever, the world , or people who do not prepare for the rebirth will perish.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:14 | 2482221 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

I just watched this the other day

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuum_%28TV_series%29

Continuum is a Canadian science fiction series starring Rachel Nichols that premiered on Showcase on May 27, 2012.[1] The first season will consist of 10 episodes.[1]

Vancouver City Protective Services (CPS) Protector Kiera Cameron (Rachel Nichols) is transported from the year 2077 to 2012 when a group of terrorists from her time escapes execution by fleeing to present day. In order to track them down and stop them from endangering the past, Kiera joins the local police force and uses the skills of a young tech genius, Alec Sadler (Erik Knudsen). However, the future of 2077 is a dystopian one in which world governments have collapsed and mega-corporations now dominate the planet, instituting a high-surveillance police state and removing many basic social freedoms. The moral dilemma this presents is that the eight terrorists from 2077 (who call themselves "Liber8"), while self-admittedly having killed tens of thousands of people, consider themselves to be freedom fighters against the Orwellian corporate regime that dominates their time.

Alec Sadler actually grows up to be the man who invents much of the cybernetic technology that is implanted into Kiera, so she sought out his teenaged self as the only person in 2012 who could even begin to aid her with her own implants. However, in sixty years time, an elderly Alec Sadler is actually the head of the mega-corporation that sent Kiera back in time to 2012. Young Alec points out that there are essentially two possibilities. The first is that this is a time loop, and elderly Alex in 2077 had already met Kiera, remembered everything they did together, and was possibly even inspired to create cybernetic technology from encountering "his" future work in her implants. In this case, nothing can be changed, and the mega-corporations will still dominate the planet in 2077. The second possibility is that the time travel of the terrorists and Kiera has altered the pre-existing timeline, and due to their intervention it is no longer certain what 2077 will be like.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:22 | 2482424 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

Sounds interesting.  Thanks.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:27 | 2482433 CPL
CPL's picture

Just watched it and it sucked a bag of donkey's wangs.

 

It was yet another Vancouver desiguised as Seattle..Portland...PacNW city general city future thriller based in current timelines, with a chick in a skin tight suit chasing semi-super bad guys..

 

 

 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 06:40 | 2482883 memyselfiu
memyselfiu's picture

Actually it was pretty in your face Vancouver....and it has potential....go back and watch a few pilots from shows you ended up loving and see how cheesy they were when they began.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:46 | 2482317 candyman
candyman's picture

There are many doomsdayers poping up every day, but nothing changes.The more doomsdayers the more normal the market becomes.  I remember reading the daily writings of Rosen day after day only to lose day after day, for years. A 40 pt down day is a disaster but a 150 pt move up is normal .At what point do you say "this time is different", and capitulate? I dont think capitulate will ever occur. Its the new norm. <And im a total bear>

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:09 | 2482389 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Bears have control of the market for the time being. Once they are all aboard, the bulls will return with a vengeance (albeit at lower prices). Ru Paul will have closed his shorts and sold his bearish options.

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