"The End Game: 2012 And 2013 Will Usher In The End" - The Scariest Presentation Ever?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If Raoul Pal was some doomsday spouting windbag, writing in all caps, arbitrarily pasting together disparate charts to create 200 page slideshows, it would be easy to ignore him. He isn't. The founder of Global Macro Investor "previously co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul came to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe... Raoul Pal retired from managing client money in 2004 at the age of 36 and now lives on the Valencian coast of Spain, from where he writes." It is his writing we are concerned about, and specifically his latest presentation, which is, for lack of a better word, the most disturbing and scary forecast of the future of the world we have ever seen....

And we see a lot of those.

Consider this:

  • We are here...

  • We don’t know exactly what is to come, but we can all join the very few dots from where we are now, to the collapse of the first major bank…
  • With very limited room for government bailouts, we can very easily join the next dots from the first bank closure to the collapse of the whole European banking system, and then to the bankruptcy of the governments themselves.
  • There are almost no brakes in the system to stop this, and almost no one realises the seriousness of the situation.
  • The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives…
  • Yes, that equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations
  • From an EU crisis, we only have to join one dot for a UK crisis of equal magnitude.
  • And then do you think Japan and China would not be next?
  • And then do you think the US would survive unscathed?
  • That is the end of the fractional reserve banking system and of fiat money.
  • It is the big RESET.

It continues:

  • Bonds will be stuck at 1% in the US, Germany, UK and Japan (for this phase).
  • The whole bond market will be dead.
  • Short selling on bonds - banned
  • Short selling stocks – banned
  • CDS – banned
  • Short futures – banned
  • Put options – banned
  • All that is left is the Dollar and Gold

It only gets better. We use the term loosely:

  • We have around 6 months left of trading in Western markets to protect ourselves or make enough money to offset future losses.
  • Spend your time looking at the risks of custody, safekeeping, counterparty etc. Assume that no one and nothing is safe.
  • After that…we put on our tin helmets and hide until the new system emerges

And the punchline

From a timing perspective, I think 2012 and 2013 will usher in the end.

Enjoy:

 

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Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:46 | 2482469 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

You're right about that, but this time around, there will be about roughly 6.99999999999999999 Billion pissed off natives, who will band together overcoming their massive disagreements and body odor, to form one fucking huge militia likes of which the world has never seen, and we'll crucify these fuckers once and for all.  Forget the military / politzai / various agencies / mercenaries / drug lords / mob... the people will clean house.  It has come to a point so deep, we need to really deal with these scum once and for all. You don't need their grain or power if you prepare and know how to survive.  Don't become compliant.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 02:25 | 2482671 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

bioweaponry.  already being used, efficiency.  not everyone gets a ticket to ride. . .

 

"I think I'm gonna be sad, I think it's today. . ."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FY_6b4-N9Uo&feature=youtube_gdata

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:08 | 2483085 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

yeah, i know these bastards have been working on killing in every way possible... sick fuckers really.  nano aerosol dispersed viruses.  sprayed in the air, absorbed through your skin. thanks to funding by bill gates of hell.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 23:35 | 2488401 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

plus one reality upvote.  spread the word(s).

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:15 | 2482510 kiwidor
kiwidor's picture

except 15:1 is no longer the natural ratio.   More like 8:1

FOFOA could write 200 pages of rational shit to explain or debunk this, but I won't.  instead, i'll skip the overwrought argument and head straight for the crutch;

an 8:1 ratio, which is more natural today than the oft quoted 15:1, will have the effect not of increasing the price of silver, but of limiting the price of gold.

(and bear in mind there isn't enough of either metal to go around)

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:09 | 2482461 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

When all this interest globally chases Gold, there won't be enough who want to part with it for whatever is deemed to be exchangeable currency, so Silver, Tungsten, Copper, Titanium, every fucking thing will go up, in regions.  Silver will do very well along with Gold because Silver used to be money in poorer countries that could not afford gold.  So in my opinion, Silver will do quite well.  And if we really want to fuck the bankers, we disuse gold and focus all popular attention on using silver... as a way to topple their "power".  That's the real logic of the silver liberation army.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:15 | 2481814 dougngen
dougngen's picture

Long self sufficency and self defence...

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:16 | 2481815 walcott
Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:26 | 2482051 flacon
flacon's picture

Why are those grown males acting like children?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:29 | 2482258 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Becasue they are the epitome of bread and circus imbibing morons..

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:01 | 2482163 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

Fuck it, Dude.  Lets go bowling.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:29 | 2482259 NuckingFuts
NuckingFuts's picture

Do you mind if I do a J?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:40 | 2482291 NuckingFuts
NuckingFuts's picture

I guess I picked the wrong year (2012) to quit sniffing glue.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:25 | 2482522 kiwidor
kiwidor's picture

There is never a wrong year to quit sniffing glue.   or taking Meth.  or Coke.  (either kind)

Junkies are happy enough when they have their junk, so a minor H habit isn't so bad.  

but glue?  nasty . as my dad always used to say (apart from saying "don't get caught"); "Don't be a cheap-drug addict."

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:16 | 2481816 AurorusBorealus
AurorusBorealus's picture

The "new system" that emerges after a financial collapse will certainly include an attempt to install complete fascist totalitarianism in the West and provoke a war that involves much of the globe.

Economics and finance do not exist in a vacuum unattached to the real world no matter how removed derivatives seem from anything that produces goods or services for people.  This is no mere economic squall; this is a hurricane that will obliterate the social and political structures of most of the world.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:32 | 2481869 macholatte
macholatte's picture

The "new system" that emerges after a financial collapse will certainly include an attempt to install complete fascist totalitarianism in the West and provoke a war that involves much of the globe.

 

Now take that thought and envision the most disgusting politicians imaginable being protected by the cops and the army and the governments they helped to destroy, being shielded in bunkers and private estates at zero cost with servants and assistants and security guards and plenty of food and drink, while they remain in power, while the sheeple get trampled and bloody and miserable.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:59 | 2482160 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Envision? It's called, Town Hall, Anywhere. USA.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 23:58 | 2486733 Clashfan
Clashfan's picture

Macholatte, exactly. Now add in technology, info databanks on all persons, bio-weapons, massive bunkers for the elite, energy weapons, and obedient coppers.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:55 | 2481953 Overfed
Overfed's picture

My fears exactly.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:19 | 2482019 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Oh. I thought good men would rise to the occasion, chase out the moneychangers, elect Ron Paul and return to the gold standard...............

 

/sarc

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:40 | 2482092 Xel3
Xel3's picture

I share your pessimism towards good men standing to the ocassion. On the other hand there was this one time around 1786 or so I think.

Besides. Who needs "good" men when you have a starving nation? Ask ol' Louie the 16th how that played out for him. ^_^

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_XVI_of_France

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 23:59 | 2486737 Clashfan
Clashfan's picture

Um, better ask Louis and the Czar about Templars first.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:40 | 2482093 Xel3
Xel3's picture

I share your pessimism towards good men standing to the ocassion. On the other hand there was this one time around 1786 or so I think.

Besides. Who needs "good" men when you have a starving nation? Ask ol' Louie the 16th how that played out for him. ^_^

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_XVI_of_France

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:20 | 2482233 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Agree with your sarcasm. Ive been on the lookout for the next Hitler making his pitch to solve all the problems. Someone charismatic, persuasive and giving hope to the masses, a real orator to herd the sheeple. Don't really see one that fits the bill just yet, he (she?) must be waiting for the true economic malaise before emerging. Fascism here we come!

Miffed:-)

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:16 | 2481818 Beevreetr
Beevreetr's picture

oops....  tier

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:17 | 2481820 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

Even if half of what he says happens - it ain't gonna be pretty.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:21 | 2481827 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Nice presentation, but wrong conclusion.

TBTF banks are just that, too big to fail, meaning endless printing to keep bailing them out.

Bank collapse won't happen.  But currency collpase will. From all that endless printing.

2013 will usher in the new global feudal financial system where governments, banks, and similar oligarchy get boatloads of printed currency to maintain their lavish lifestyles while everybody else slides toward poverty

...because the dollars (or euros or whatever) in their paychecks are worthless, or nearly worthless.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:29 | 2481857 chump666
chump666's picture

No, rates are collapsing, which means even the mega wealthy will be screaming out as values collapse across the board, mixed with energy inflation.  The safe havens are collapsing accept for USDs (just look at Asia) and Gold.

USD's?  Yes, why, because all other currencies are stuck with brutal stagflation re: India and China  - a f*cking mess.

Money printing does not keep banks solvent.  Look at Spain, then look at the ECB balance sheet - it 100% financed the Spanish banking sector which is HUGE.  Now a c-hair away from a total collapse.

There is no master players here pulling strings, just a a chaotic rudderless mess. 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:51 | 2481929 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

I bring up gold to under $1,000 and get all thumbs down.

 

I agree with the guy, there is no fucking place to hide. You have your strong back and thats about it, well and a ruger 10/22 & a Moist Nugget...pew pew

Just ordered a tack driving scope for the 10/22, all I need now is a Fram oil filter to screw on the end. Gimme your gold bitchez

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:21 | 2482025 pods
pods's picture

You are going to take people's gold with a 10/22 and an oil filter?

Better luck stabbing them with the bayonet on the Mosin, at least you can do that from a safe distance.

pods

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:34 | 2482056 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

Actually there isn't going to be any gold, the feds will have confiscated it all for worthless digits.

 

Gotta love dem digits. All those hungry peeps getting a bounty to turn in folks with Gold, they will love digits too.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:27 | 2482054 chump666
chump666's picture

A ZH poster just put up the Rollover clip. Wow, forgot about that movie...now my heart is beating a little faster.  It's right on the money, accept, Asia will drive up US rates by massive USD appreciation and since America can't handle higher rates = slam's that Obama recovery down.  Fed may just lose control of the curve.

+ gold buying.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:24 | 2482036 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Correct...........because just like Facebook, the whole damned financial system is nothing more than a pump and dump scheme for the benefit of the political, social, and economic elite. All of these "failures" are merely consolidations of power and money for them...............

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:58 | 2482481 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

I agree, and I like how you think.  You've got that devious cunning going for you, so you can think like the evil bastards, and see all of this as not a failure of the banks, but a failing for the people, who will lose their money, the investors who will lose value, and all that gets shoveled to the top of the pyramid.  And same goes for nations, corporations, etc.  All those failings are no threat to the oligarchs, in fact they enrich the oli, they're a threat to the ordinary peeps.

This is the final stages of the overthrow of governments.  All of you who have been clamoring for regulation free society... you're about to have your wish fullfilled.  Happy wet dreams... it's your blood afterall.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:17 | 2482514 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

No, rates are collapsing...

It's not about rates moron, it's about value of currency, which keeps dropping with more printing ...and there's gonna be lots more printing to buy up lots more (worthless) paper from governments and banks.

The safe havens are collapsing accept for USDs (just look at Asia) and Gold.

Hey moron, USD has lost 50% of its value since 2007, gold hasn't.  And see what happens when USD loses WRC status, it'll drop like a stone.

Money printing does not keep banks solvent. 

Yes it does moron.  How do you think TBTF banks  survived since '08?

You're a blithering blathering idiot.  Go the fuck away moron.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 21:45 | 2486595 Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

Man, you are cranky...

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:36 | 2481885 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

still gotta have that interest rate reset. i still don't understand "how we get to the end of the world" with zero percent financing of government. eventually "someone has to pay for something" in my view. i can't say i can explain this current "the governments of Germany and the USA don't have to pay for anything" period in time. i have noted that the farmers up here are really clearing the land to make way for "yet another ethanol plant and its feedstock." word is ethanol costs a buck a gallon to make which "can power quite a vehicle fleet" once we throw the corrupt politicians "under the bus" so to speak such that "flex fuel vehicles are required by law." anywho this is one wild time! my advice? "don't be big."

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:25 | 2482044 pods
pods's picture

If cash ever detaches from digital, that is when it is time.  As long as plastic (credit/debit same thing) is usable, things will be okay.

pods

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:25 | 2482045 pods
pods's picture

Double tap.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:38 | 2482454 WoodMizer
WoodMizer's picture

How do these farmers plan to sustain the feilds without oil to produce high intensity nitrogen fertilizer?  Oil is needed more in, large scale, modern agriculture than in almost any other industry.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:16 | 2482513 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

It's called "cover cropping".

Check out "The One Straw Revolution".

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:29 | 2482529 kiwidor
kiwidor's picture

check out this too: http://www.crossslot.com/

the guy who made those deserves a nobel prize.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 01:17 | 2482608 Seer
Seer's picture

" i still don't understand "how we get to the end of the world" with zero percent financing of government."

Well, I suppose that being unable to pay for the actual stuff, not just the financing fees, would be a pretty good indicator.

Govts can only hope to keep themselves afloat (a bit longer) by starting wars.  It's physical resources that drive the bus; all the rest is just painting on the outside (advertizing/propaganda).

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 18:24 | 2486194 DosZap
DosZap's picture

"flex fuel vehicles are required by law."

And who can afford to just junk out their new,used vehicles set for max 10% ethanol?.

Flex fuel will (as you know run on 100% ethanol), ALL  vechicles that are not Flex Fuel self destruct engines at 15% Ethanol.

I am thinking that Ethanol, might be better utilized to feed starving masses,if this is played out as written.

Using Food for fuel is Idocy IMHO.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:39 | 2481900 AGuy
AGuy's picture

Cranky,

I believe your scenero will be the one that happens. Recall last year the Central banks joined forces to kick the crisis down the road another year. They will kick the can again.

 Japan has managed to hang on despite a much higher Debt to GDP, and with a 9.0 Earthquarke and a meltdown of 3 reactors. It will take a lot more pain before a global collapse happens. Its also likely that countries will continue to erode civil liberties, and probably go to war rather than resign to a collapse. The TPTB will not go down with out a fight. and masses (most either recieving or promised gov't handouts) are likely to go on following, surrendering both their freedom and digity to support the system. The masses will permit the TPTB to continue to plunder assest and wealth (ether by out-right theft of there banking accounts) or with real negative interest rates, just as long as the TPBT lie to them about their promised (non-existant) entitlements and that better times are around the corner!

 

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:07 | 2482190 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

I SO dont want you to be right.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:19 | 2481831 toady
toady's picture

Yep, that's what I thought.

Of course, I'm just a toady, so no one cares if I say this stuff.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:20 | 2481833 theduke2421
theduke2421's picture

Question - is any of this actionable? If not, is it valuable? 

 

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:25 | 2482005 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Yes, it is actionable on many fronts.  Here is just one...

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-19-10/fear-we-are-returning-time-history-where-it-common-occurrence-fight-ones-life

Whether or not it is valuable is yet to be determined.  

Personally, I try to live every day like it is the banks' last.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:16 | 2482012 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Yes, get your ass(ets) out of their system before they loot your ass(ets) into poverty.

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