"The End Game: 2012 And 2013 Will Usher In The End" - The Scariest Presentation Ever?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If Raoul Pal was some doomsday spouting windbag, writing in all caps, arbitrarily pasting together disparate charts to create 200 page slideshows, it would be easy to ignore him. He isn't. The founder of Global Macro Investor "previously co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul came to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe... Raoul Pal retired from managing client money in 2004 at the age of 36 and now lives on the Valencian coast of Spain, from where he writes." It is his writing we are concerned about, and specifically his latest presentation, which is, for lack of a better word, the most disturbing and scary forecast of the future of the world we have ever seen....

And we see a lot of those.

Consider this:

  • We are here...

  • We don’t know exactly what is to come, but we can all join the very few dots from where we are now, to the collapse of the first major bank…
  • With very limited room for government bailouts, we can very easily join the next dots from the first bank closure to the collapse of the whole European banking system, and then to the bankruptcy of the governments themselves.
  • There are almost no brakes in the system to stop this, and almost no one realises the seriousness of the situation.
  • The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives…
  • Yes, that equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations
  • From an EU crisis, we only have to join one dot for a UK crisis of equal magnitude.
  • And then do you think Japan and China would not be next?
  • And then do you think the US would survive unscathed?
  • That is the end of the fractional reserve banking system and of fiat money.
  • It is the big RESET.

It continues:

  • Bonds will be stuck at 1% in the US, Germany, UK and Japan (for this phase).
  • The whole bond market will be dead.
  • Short selling on bonds - banned
  • Short selling stocks – banned
  • CDS – banned
  • Short futures – banned
  • Put options – banned
  • All that is left is the Dollar and Gold

It only gets better. We use the term loosely:

  • We have around 6 months left of trading in Western markets to protect ourselves or make enough money to offset future losses.
  • Spend your time looking at the risks of custody, safekeeping, counterparty etc. Assume that no one and nothing is safe.
  • After that…we put on our tin helmets and hide until the new system emerges

And the punchline

From a timing perspective, I think 2012 and 2013 will usher in the end.

Enjoy:

 

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Sun, 06/03/2012 - 21:03 | 2490444 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Waterfallsparkles,

You truly had a blessed childhood. My father also loved to shoot but never had time to take me due to the fact he worked m-f at his business in LA and came home to sleep on the weekends. Watching him slowing kill himself working to death made me determined not to have a life like that so I became a professional ( didn't realize I had just signed up for permanent tax slavey). At 51 I'm now trying to catch up on his ideas of self sufficiency and preparedness. It's heart warming to hear your warm feelings for your childhood.

Miffed:-)

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 01:10 | 2482595 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Thank you for your kind comments, however I am the lucky one. She is a strong woman, but she doesn't like to hear bad things. Lord knows I've made plenty of dumb mistakes. It was the events from 2001 through 2007 that woke me up from my selfish slumber, and I started putting the needs of the family above my own needs.
I can appreciate your frustration, but you are to be commended. I'm sure your husband will understand some time and he will be grateful for what you have accomplished. Keep plugging along.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 21:40 | 2486589 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Hey doc,

"I believe it's going to be a rough go for a while but With a little faith and preparation it could lead to something better."

and in prep

"A Scout is trustworthy, loyal, helpful, friendly, courteous, kind, obedient, cheerful, thrifty, brave, clean, and reverent"

all y'all can look up the second quote.  Then, truly consider the source of same.

Then {OT--but I'm compelled} consider the fricken' ACLU {I'm considering how to characterize them, but not tonite}  "lawyers" who we finance publicly to oppose whatever they wish.

dang

 - Ned

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:33 | 2481858 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

Fiat Fraudpocalypse!

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:30 | 2481859 Newager23
Newager23's picture

I don't like to post negative, but let's face the facts are becoming clear. I'm a futurist and I have studied the future since 1989. I have known what is coming for a long time, so what is happening today I expected. And it is only going to get much worse before it gets better.

I have self-published 9 books to let people know what is coming and to prepare them. What we are facing is nothing less than the transformation of civilization: our econommic, social, political, and religious systems are going to be transformed in our lifetime. This is not a slow change, but a dramatic change. And we are on the precipice.

America is literally on the edge of implosion. Forget about Greece and Europe, that is child's play. America has bigger problems because our culture and demographics. We have lived (and are living) a life of affluence and expectations. Europe is more attuned to deprivation and will endure it better. American's are not ready for deprivation.

As most on the site are aware, our economic system of spend and pretend is no longer tenable. We mock Krugman, the Benank and company, and other Keynsians because we know they are leading down a dark tunnel. That tunnel is approaching and we know it.

I've been writing about this since the early 1990s and now it is here. What can we expect? The nothing less than the Demise of America. The first state to secede will be Texas around 2015, which will lead a stead stream of state to secede. You may think that can't happen, but trust me the Fed's will be broke and the country will be in no mood for a civil war.

Once Texas goes, the national economy will fall on its face completely. It will already be in dire straits by then, but it will be brutal fall after that. We will have armed troops in the majors cities and it won't be pretty.

Economically it will be a return to what I call hyper-localisim. We will work locally, for local business. And eat locally, from local farmers. The corporation is going away, and there will no more fast food industry to feed everyone. I'm sure most of you think that is impossible, but get ready. McDonald's will be the lone survivor for a while, but even they will go away.

How could this happen? People won't have any money and these fast food restaurants will be empty. People will have no choice but to live together, share resources. The money that exists will be shares by groups, and people will eat together in groups. Communities will become checkerboard at night, with more than half of homes dark because no one lives there.

So, if you think real estate -- houses and appartments -- is good investment, I have my doubts. The only thing that will protect you is farmland and gold and silver. I've been investing in gold since 1991, when I realized what was coming. Now I have 95% of my assets in gold and silver.

Physical gold and silver will be hard to come by in about 2 years. So, get it while you can.

Newager

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:39 | 2481901 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

why do people who know the future always make it out to be so negative? on second thought..don't answer that.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:04 | 2481976 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

I wonder if those cash for gold shops will convert to sex for gold. Some PM stackers are going to be a hit with the ladies.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 21:39 | 2486586 jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

Depends.   If we choose to follow the Constitution we will be flexible enough to maneuver through whatever life throws at us as a nation.   Europe has been addicted to state control since WWII.   I believe they, and the rest of the world will have a more difficult time.   If we stick with Constitutional principles, we will survive, then thrive.   It is up to us.  That is our(americans) challenge.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 22:16 | 2486641 Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

Great post in response to the futurist, who did make some good points. The United States will fair well in the long run. We are blessed with tremendous natural resources; water, farmland, oil, coal, natgas, timber, oceans. We produce and export more food than the rest of the world combined!

"Follow the Constitution" and return power to the States.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:41 | 2481904 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

looney tunes on ZH tonight

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:04 | 2482122 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

I'm a doomer, I'm a shroomer

I'm a loony-tooner

Play with my silver in the sun

I'm a joker, a chicken-choker,

But glad I'm not a broker

I sure don't wanna hurt no one

 

...

Agree with Newager23 that Texas will secede and most other states will follow.  This will culminate in a horde of vets and rednecks sacking NY and DC.  It will be the Woodstock of our generation.  Then all conspiracies will be revealed in the mainstream.  There will be a worldwide Philip K. Dick reality shift.  It will be hundreds of years before people trust the elites again.  Been saying all this stuff for a couple years.

Global system reset, debt jubilee and radical decentralization are the only viable paths to freedom!  Bring it, bitchez!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 04:04 | 2482744 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

Montana/Wyoming/Idaho will compete with Texas to be 1st - but Texas has a great advantage having seaports for import/export and naval ops.

I also agree with Newager23 - math and history are hard to beat with fiction and teleprompters.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 04:55 | 2482779 uff the fluff
uff the fluff's picture

I truly wish that I could say I see evidence in history of a time when extractive elites have been universally dismissed or even greatly weakened but I simply fail to find precedent for such things. The elite usually kill a whole lot of us and we fall in line if push really comes to shove.

Now this certainly doesn't rule out a wide scale embarrassment of the current crop of elites (though I wouldn't count on it), but to think that they would not quickly be replaced by a surprisingly similar cadre is unrealistic.

The whole of human history after agriculture is one long exercise in an ever increasing consolidation and refinement of power.

I will say that the current “masters” are certainly giving the impression that they’ve managed to kill the goose that’s been laying golden eggs, but if that’s the case I see an awful lot more suffering and downright subjugation than I do a renewal of frontier living and personal freedom.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 05:48 | 2482811 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey, stocktivity!

without grading anybody, you have an excellent point imo, here

yet, New_23 gets greens and you get the splits and some shits

maybe this doesn't fit for this case or what we are seeing in general, but i'm gonna put it out here, in the context of your play, here

things suck and are not what they appear to be;  TSHF is not some bullshit fringeBlogTM flakiness;  serious writes are going ape-shit;  tyler brings them to us, every day, and other sites, also

so, i think everybody has some serious commonality here, ok?

the divisiveness seems to be in what i call the mythical orthodoxy aspect;  jimQuinn if you will;  a theory becomes idealogy, becomes dogma;  jim's 4thTurning is just one example of how this may work, for some adherents

this is neither good/bad;  right/wrong i think;  it is just human and emotionally satisfying to have something believable, historically, theoretically, sometimes mythically;  but many today distrust dogma even if the underlying situ seems compatible and agreeable:  looneyToons in the sense perhaps that someone feels compelled and qualified to tell the future and prophesy, inspired by the love of these ideas and the stance it affords them in life, existentially

personally, i understand this and do not try to stand against it and fight it, try to beat it, since the dramatic and revelatory angle is not necessarily in-valid, imo, depending more on personal style; and expressing it this way may be fine for _23;  he goes to his church; people in his church respond;  you and i end up m/l in our church... no biggie

and many like the structure, as we see here;  so maybe that's what's happening...

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:44 | 2481915 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Do you think peak {whatever} will also come into play? That is, if there is no oil, potable water, etc. there is no reason to invest what's left deploying forces such as the miltary into urban areas that would be basically overrun by zombie type "feral" humans? 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:54 | 2481951 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

once you stop shipping i-junk across the planet and eat what's available locally and don't commute 2 hours and don't keep the tv. and the heat/ac on etc. while you leave the home for work, oil consumption drops like a stone.

 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:45 | 2482556 kiwidor
kiwidor's picture

I've been practising those things...leave the heaters on when i'm out, and the lights...never turn stuff off.  shipping junk from across the planet..  it's my small contribution to keeping the economy going.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:53 | 2481945 jomama
jomama's picture

who's going to maintain all those 440+ nuclear reactors globally if society falls apart?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:32 | 2482065 fuu
fuu's picture

No worries, most of them are on major rivers and lakes. The radiation gets diluted with the water.

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:44 | 2482114 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

are you practicing homeopathic radiology w/out a state-issued license again, fuu?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:26 | 2482432 fuu
fuu's picture

1 vial $10!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:47 | 2482563 kiwidor
kiwidor's picture

Miracle Water.  except i think that's already a trademark.

how about "Bountiful pleasance"   or "extreme longevity" water.   better yet, "fuck-up your annoying neighbor" water.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 01:46 | 2482637 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

eau de bequerel

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 07:15 | 2482959 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Don't swim in the water... Fish shit in it...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 07:40 | 2483020 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Perfect! Because it grows great veggies in my aquaculture tanks....

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 11:11 | 2484218 fuu
fuu's picture

We have a winner!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:02 | 2482484 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

I've been wondering that myself...

Don't worry, I'm sure they have a shutdown contingency plan for the end of the world... being how they were so prepared for a relatively common earthquake and associated tsunami.

/sarc

On the bright side, a little radiation will probably be the least of our worries. Keeping the local "Lord Humungus" in check will probably be a bigger issue in our daily struggles.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 20:59 | 2481965 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"The only thing that will protect you is farmland and gold and silver."

I agree on the farmland, but I doubt PM's will save you. I have no doubt that gold ownership will be made illegal before the collapse happens, or they will put a 90% tax on it. Those in power will force you to hand over your PMs by using the rule of law: legalized theft!

Farmland is OK, but you need to be self-reliant. Currently family farms are being forced out, by Big Agra so they can dominate the industry. They are doing this by getting laws passed with makes it impossible for small family farms to stay in business. Most of the new agra. regulations originate from Big Agra.

 You should not be dependant on selling crops/livestock/etc to the market to survive. Farmland also needs into include plenty of surface fresh water to avoid dependancy on deep well water. The land must also contain plenty of wood stock (for energy/raw building materials). When the dollar does take the deep plunge, oil will be in short supply and expensive. Same for nat-gas, and electricity.

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:23 | 2482035 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

For the entire hstory of mankind, gold and silver have been the only things that always protected you in a financial crisis.  The people who still have not bothered to research WTF money is yet should refrain from making any comments about gold or silver or repeating stupid stuff they hear on TV.  Governments have a long history of taking people's farmland.  You cannot bury your farm to preserve it for later.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:37 | 2482080 i_fly_me
i_fly_me's picture

They can't make gold ownership illegal again or tax it for that matter ... at least not for long.  They shot their wad with that one early last century and it won't work now.  The only gold play they have left is to let the fiat float against the physical, and the more the public has the better after that.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:01 | 2482166 Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

UN Agenda 21 shit for brains.  Nothing is safe.  Go Google it before I rip you out of your diapers.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:58 | 2482487 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

A21 is my area of deep research.  I am well aware of the threats it brings.  But that does not mean anyone should just roll over and die without fighting.  A21 is a stealth agenda, of course, and relies on local implementation for the most part.  The biggest redress one has is the local sheriff, who can stand b/t property owners and govt agents, demanding a warrant to enter said property.  I doubt that, in any real time of chaos and catastrophe, the local soviets (small s) will have much time or ability to regulate one off their land.  A shotgun would work fairly well.  No different than the wild west, really.  We will just have to become much tougher overnight! 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:03 | 2482175 El
El's picture

Yeah? Well, I lost all my gold in Lake Erie. Can I help you with that scuba gear, Mr. Government Man?

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:03 | 2481972 Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

You're talking about the east coast.  I grew up in the wild west.  Where, less than 40 years ago my grandmother #1's house had no electricity, and grandmother #2's house had no plumbing or electricity.  I shit in an outhouse as a kid, and I'll do it again.   We've got 100x the resources and 1/50 of the population density.  And we're not so far removed from living off the land.

 

My Grandparents did.  And I'm only 38.  

 

If I lived out east I'd be looking at some Michigan land that they're almost giving away.  They've got water and space.  That's the first and most important criteria for survival.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 02:07 | 2482657 delacroix
delacroix's picture

oklahoma and kansas, you can find a nice parcel in the $10,000 range, with an old fixer home. check craigslist.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:09 | 2481996 TSA gropee
TSA gropee's picture

I can think of 450 million (hollow point) reasons why civil war is not only expected, but planned way in advance for.

A serious impediment to America falling into submission to the elite is a heavily armed citizenry. Hence, the purchase of oh so many pistol rounds. The goosestepping storm troopers plan to make it up close and personal.

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:38 | 2482085 i_fly_me
i_fly_me's picture

They'll need better than .40 hollow point if they come to my town.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:12 | 2482505 mt paul
mt paul's picture

remember

an enemy wounded

is more a liability

to his comrades 

then a dead one...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 02:16 | 2482662 Hunch Trader
Hunch Trader's picture

If not wounded seriously enough, he'll be back to the fight later on.

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:58 | 2482155 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

A serious impediment to America falling into submission to the elite is a heavily armed citizenry.

Please ditch the patriot rhetoric, we're 98% submitted to the elite now and not one hint of any opposition / uprising / revolution / whatever.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:29 | 2482437 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

Shhh!  Don't talk while the movie is going on in his head!

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 22:55 | 2482288 TomGa
TomGa's picture

Yep. A pistol is only for controlling your immediate surroundings and/or cutting a path to safety until you can reach your rifle.  A rifle is for implementing your will.

How many rifles in this nation eat .40 vs  7.62 / .308 or  5.56 / .223 or even .30-06?  How many scoped deer rifles are out there with trained men behind the triggers?  .40 does indeed sound "up close and personal."  

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:55 | 2482483 BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Let's see....... 300M+ US citizens plus 10M - 20M illegal immigrants.  The federals better be very good shots with their 450M rounds.  Given that on average hundreds if not thousands of rounds are expended per kill, they will run out of .40 long before they run out of people.  Lots of folks will be left still around who are real pissed that friends and neighbors got taken out.  Will see how tough the 1%'ers are when their body guards and lackeys run out of ammo. And will abandon them to take care of themselves and their own families.  Will also be interesting to see how much inventory shrinkage there will be if things start getting tense.  A lot of that .40 might get lost in boating accidents and such.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 00:51 | 2482573 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

Sadly, they'll only have to shoot a "few" to get (most of) the rest to comply.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 08:26 | 2488827 HellFish
HellFish's picture

The sheep will comply after the first few are shot. Others will dig in and get motivated.

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 21:46 | 2482118 Possible Impact
Possible Impact's picture

Newager,

Have you looked at the material from John Robb?

http://www.resilientcommunities.com/

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/

Your "hyper-localisim" seems related to his "Resilient Community" concept. Can you post a link to info on your books?

----------------

Also: http://blog.opensourceecology.org/

Building tools for replicable, open source, post-scarcity resilient communities

http://www.ted.com/talks/marcin_jakubowski.html

 

By weaving open source permacultural and technological cycles together, we intend to provide basic human needs while being good stewards of the land, using resources sustainably, and pursuing right livelihood. With the gift of openly shared information, we can produce industrial products locally using open source design and digital fabrication. This frees us from the need to participate in the wasteful resource flows of the larger economy by letting us produce our own materials and components for the technologies we use. We see small, independent, land-based economies as means to transform societies, address pressing world issues, and evolve to freedom.

Factor e Farm is the land-based facility where we are putting this theory into practice. Here we are testing the prototypes of of Global Village Construction Set, working piece by piece towards self sufficiency. Ultimately, our goal is to make this self sufficiency available to all. To this end, the GVCS is designed to be self-replicable. After the first set is complete, it will be used to fabricate copies of itself from raw materials (for the cost of scrap metal). At that point we will shift to begin developing networks of interconnected self-sufficient villages and homes.

 

 

Thu, 05/31/2012 - 23:48 | 2482473 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Very cool stuff!  Thanks.  It's funny...my college-age daughter and I were talking just today about learning permaculture...we better do it fast!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 07:34 | 2483006 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Looks for info on Bill Mollison, Sepp Holtzer, and Geoff Lawton.  Permies.com and Thesurvivalpodcast.com cover a lot of ground on those subjects. It works for me!

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