The 'Big Reset' Is Coming: Here Is What To Do

Tyler Durden's picture

A week ago, Zero Hedge first presented the now viral presentation by Raoul Pal titled "The End Game." We dubbed the presentation scary because it was: in very frank terms it laid out the reality of the current absolutely unsustainable situation while pulling no punches. Yet some may have misread the underlying narrative: Pal did not predict armageddon. Far from it: he forecast the end of the current broken economic, monetary, and fiat system... which following its collapse will be replaced with something different, something stable. Which, incidentally, is why the presentation was called a big "reset", not the big "end." But what does that mean, and how does one protect from such an event? Luckily, we have another presentation to share with readers, this time from Eidesis Capital, given at the Grant's April 11 conference, which picks up where Pal left off. Because if the Big Reset told us what is coming, Eidesis tells us how to get from there to the other side...

First of all, what is systemic risk?

Typical Systemic Risks:

  • Wide-spread defaults, sovereign debt crises, devaluations, capital controls, bank holidays, etc.

How it usually happens:

  • No warning;
  • Emergency announcement over a weekend;
  • Drastic measures to “protect the public” against [insert suitable culprits];
  • Outcome- someone’s value gets expropriated.

Yes, it can happen here –it has in the past.

Usually, the best warning indicator of a major systemic "event" are soaring cross-asset correlations: something we are experiencing right now.

  • Crisis of 2007-2009 was a “High Correlation” disruption:
    • Multiple institutions and majority of the population were affected.
  • Reducing systemic risk called for lowering correlation, i.e. “firebreaks”, de-coupling, etc.
  • Instead, governments’actions since 2008 have been increasing correlation:
  • Fiscal Policies –sovereign debts are higher than ever and still growing fast;
    • Monetary Policies –broken price mechanism = system-wide misallocations and mispricings;
    • Too-Big-To-Fail –bigger than before the crisis;
    • Euro Zone Crisis –“solutions” keep increasing interconnectedness – a “mutual suicide” pact;
    • Financial Regulation –was supposed to reduce the risk but stalled through stiff opposition:
      • A single JP Morgan trader is reported to run $100 bln CDS book?!?!?!?!?! [ZH: now confirmed, and we all know the story since]
    • Lack of Transparency –more opacity since the crisis; mark-to-market remains suspended.

Everyone knows this but only few are willing to accept the implications; fewer still are willing to act.

What are the key systemic risks:

  • The already unfolding crises:
    • The Euro zone, Argentina.
  • Redistribution of wealth:
    • ZIRP –Taking from net savers for the benefit of net debtors.
    • Inflation targeting –Debasing debts at the expense of savers and bond holders.
    • Pending tax hikes for top earners.
  • Financial Marshall law:
    • FBAR and FATCA raise penalties and tighten reporting on all financial assets held offshore.
    • Argentina –Currency controls; “Dollar-sniffing”dogs at the airports and border crossings.
  • Governments co opt banks to police the assets within the system:
    • FATCA - all foreign financial institutions to report on all US customers or face 30% withholding.
    • Swiss banks have been firing US clients; deal on reporting is inthe works.
    • Swiss banks have agreed to report on their German and UK customers’accounts.


What to look for:

  • There are always losers and winners –many more losers than winners.
  • Majority has “normalcy bias” – tendency to underestimate risk of disaster.
  • Only a few heed the risks and make proper contingency arrangements.
  • Historically, financial disaster preparedness has enabled accelerated wealth creation.

Systemic Insurance is the only way to protect wealth from “High Correlation” events.

But more than anything, the one biggest giveaway is near endless complacency: the more the pros exhibit it, the closer we are:

  • Western economies have enjoyed V-shaped recoveries and domestic peace for over 65 years.
  • Mainstream investors have never experienced a “reset” or repression, financial or political.
  • Disdain for history and post-WWII Western exceptionalismunderpin collective hubris:
    • "There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance.Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of the those who do not have insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.” - John K. Galbraith

Complacency is misplaced – despite apparent normality, the risks are high and growing.

One simple example of the true cost of systemic risks in vitro:

  • Analyze This: Crisis of September 2008 Without The Bailouts = ? $$,$$$,$$$,$$$,$$$

What's the big deal: they bailed us out before, they will do it again.

Wrong: "Due to massive new debts and politics governments’ capacity for future bailouts is limited."

Which means that systemic hedges should be used by everyone. At what cost though:

  • Price of Systemic Insurance = Probability of Disruption X Potential Loss Severity

As Eidesis notes: Insurance is cheap whenever consensus under?estimates the Probability of Disruption.

Or, worse, when the status quo is artificially keeping the price of systemic insurance low to prevent the general public from realizing just how precarious reality truly is. Remember:

  • "When it becomes serious, you have to lie" Jean-Claude Junker

So if we are handed cheap insurance options, where should we be looking? Long-time Zero Hedge readers likely already know the answer:


  • Ideal Attributes – Valuable, uniform, divisible, portable, storable.
  • No One’s Liability–Physical form, unlevered, non-financial custody; no reliance on capital markets.
  • Multiple Exit Strategies – Diversity of buyers; ability to exit via different currencies.
  • Geographic Diversification ? The only feasible way to manage sovereign risks.
  • Flexibility – Ownership arrangements must be actively managed to address evolving conditions

Exposure to Safe Haven assets via financial instruments IS NOT Systemic Insurance


  • Proven Safe Havens for preserving value through the “trough” of a crisis:
  • Real Estate – “Real” but immovable; not uniform, usually owned with leverage; easily taxable.
  • Diamonds – Valuable, portable and storable but neither uniform nor divisible.
  • Art, Antiques, Collectables – Issues with subjective valuations, authenticity and provenance.


Which leaves...

  • Precious Metals can preserve value through a crisis AND provide liquidity during a crisis:
  • Silver–“Poor Man’s Gold” but impractical for large sums.
  • Platinum –The bullion is not as readily available as gold.
  • Palladium –Somewhat esoteric.

GOLD –Always liquid, widely available, universally accepted, deepest markets, global pricing

Gold – 2,500-year unbroken track record of liquidity and “Safe Haven” performance.

But don't take our word for it... Or that of Eidesis. How about that of... the Federal Reserve:

Here is the FRBNY explaining why people own gold:

  • “For centuries, gold had a profound impact on history, as a symbol and a storehouse of wealth accepted universally around the world.“
  • “When people are worried about political instability, war or inflation, they often put their savings into gold.”
  • “Gold functions as a medium of exchange, particularly in areas where currencies are distrusted.”

Why the US government nationalized gold:

  • The 1933 prohibition against gold ownership “prevented hoarders from profiting after Congress devalued the dollar (in terms of gold)”by 41%.


What else does the Fed tell us:


  • “As of early 2008, the Fed’s vault contained roughly 216 million troy ounces of gold“–“about 22 percent of the world’s official monetary gold reserves.”
  • “The United States owns approximately 27 percentof the monetary gold”–“262 million troy ounces as of 2007.”
  • “A majority of [the U.S.] reserves is held <…> at Fort Knox, Kentucky, and West Point, New York. Most of the remainder is at the Denver and Philadelphia Mints and the San Francisco Assay Office.”


Which means that as we approach the date with the Grand Reset which Raoul Pal predicted could come as soon as the end of the year, and which Soros has as under 3 months and counting, there is only one question:


Do You Have Systemic Insurance?


Full Eidesis Presentation:


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flacon's picture

Can we burn our Keynesian economic books on a pyre of paper fiat money? 

Here is Keynes' equation boiled down to the basics: Government Spending = Production.

Hugh G Rection's picture

The more money spent to more debt created upon the Sheeple of America, the cartel doesn't give a fuck about anything else.

SilverTree's picture


mcguire's picture

Gold: Never failed to perform in 2500 years..

except for 1933, when they confiscated it... 


JackT's picture

That, and when it's stored on a sinking ship.

DeadFred's picture

Funny, that's exactly what happened to mine.

nope-1004's picture

I was in San Diego airport not too long ago and there were an "abundance" of national patrols (forgot which one DEA, NSA, ???) and they had about 12 dogs with them.  I asked one of the guards what was happening, and he said "its a currency patrol.  We're looking for large sums of money leaving the country".  Not sure if it was related to drugs.  But sure as hell we've got currency controls now, just no one talks about it nor will pinhead Giethner or asshat Benocide publicly admit their fascist ways.


Oh regional Indian's picture

No Derek, we are losing the past, which might be worse.


j0nx's picture

Do people junk you just because you are you? The comments you make are well thought out and legit yet you always seem to run a pretty solid junk ratio. I think you have some trolls that follow you around junking your every move.

Go Tribe's picture

You can take as much money out of the country as you want, you just have to report it. Any unreported amounts over $10,000 are most likely related to drugs or other illegal activities.

Zaydac's picture

It is only the government that thinks large amounts of cash are necessarily related to illegal activities. Some people have a lot of cash because they no longer trust the banks.

Davalicious's picture

If you are a Jewish crook you export your cash via the Jew banking system (Wells Fargo can help you with this). The sniffer dogs, at airports, are purely for the Goy - aka white boy trash.

Oh regional Indian's picture

In a panic the first thing that collapses is common sense. Just take one look at dependence on electricity. Grid failure = Chaos.

The only safe havens are either in-accessible or movable. I suggest a boom in Mil-spec motor homes as the next growth industry. 


BluePill's picture

Vivek, please enlighten me something why such a degenerate BABA business men like you and other indians are living in society


Do you consider Darwin as wrong?, i do, you know why if he is true then degenerate indians would not alive today


I think indians are destined for something on earth, they are born to destroy every glorious thing that human being has ever created


Indians will corrupt the Art,education,society ,Music and every form of human expression until every Force of true spirit fades on into history and parasitism envelopes human society


But what happens when all productive men die?


Vivek , what happens then?

You cannot prolong parasitism, can you


You are born for the same specific reason , to die slowly with smelly diseases , i dont understand how such a degenerate society and individuals from such filth are allowed into west


50 years ago, you would be smelling your fecal matter and urinating on street and fiddling in temples now you were given a chance to enter and pollute the west


Jews know it, strangely they and you filthy subhuman specimen have something in common, both of you belong parasite species among humans

Ofcourse you have gypsie romani people have your sub race in parasitism


you feed feed and destroy every productive society without iota of  shame and disgust


No nuclear weapon can make you extinct you have swallowed Amrutha , and you were born for ultimate destruction and creating most filthiest degenerate society


Vivek, your contribution will make human being a degenerate species in coming years

Glad, that you are multiplying in more numbers, there is a reason for this , you are born to generate filth and pollute and corrupt this planet

There is a reason why Cockroach indians are destined to live in lavotary named india



But we today are allowing these cockroaches and turning our nations into lavotary like INDIA


Honorable citizens must realize the truth and Re-open gas chambers and these locusts if allowed to prosper will pollute our children and their lives


BABA vivek, how many women have you molested so far with your scientific baba business


CharlieSDT's picture

What a crazy motherfucker.

Prescient_Point's picture

Truly you are the scum of the earth. You racist idiot.

Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

Only 19 downvotes???  Really?

prains's picture



you're not supposed to take the pill in the ass, swallow it first 

jeff montanye's picture

in 1933 they only said turn it in. they never truly looked for it very hard. all real litigation on this were test cases on the legality of the law.  i would think hidden in a trunk in one's attic would have worked, maybe even in a bank safety deposit box that you were careful about.  certainly buried. 

people turned it in voluntarily.  there were considerable penalties on the books but no one really was prosecuted except for "volunteers".

and undoubtedly no one was kept from owning gold stocks (which beat the pants off bullion).

mcguire's picture

true.  but what good is gold if you have to keep it buried...  

as for gold stocks, i think in "big reset" scenarios, stocks do not make the "safe asset" list... 

no doubt, gold is a really good safe asset...

but you can't say "it never failed in 2500 years".  it failed right here in america.  


LowProfile's picture

You're an idiot.

I know this because you are woefully ignorant on the subject of what people did with their gold during the GD, and only an IDIOT would post such blather HERE.

Europe doesn't tax gold.  Go ponder on why that's a tremendously smart policy.  Hint:  It has to do with crossing borders.

giggler123's picture

I doubt gold makes it on the list either, like Diamonds, you can't cut it.  Well you can physically but who's gonna take 1/10 of a bar they no nothing about, no print of purity on it, nothing, just some yellow stuff.   I can see long ques at the supermarkets with checkouts having saws available, signs up saying please wait while others saw and a pay - NOT...


So I guess you're left to buy the 1g bars at a premium or tiny coins?


StychoKiller's picture

Pretty sure you could create an account at the store in question with several WHOLE coins -- good until you siphon off the agreed amount of goods/services.

CharlieSDT's picture

Or just buy groceries with some silver dimes.

johnQpublic's picture

in zimbabwe as the currency collapsed, they were using gold dust to buy bread

theres really no mistaking gold

all you need is a digital scale(10 bucks at harbor freight)

and a file

add 'em to your disaster preps

TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

gold doesnT "have to be kept buried", even if should it become illegal contraband.  It's just that then this gold contraband becomes less practical to trade/barter.  One would have to be very careful with whom one traded/bartered.  As in "black market".


Gold never failed in the history of mankind.

Gold never failed in the history of the US Citizen.

There, I said it!


lightning's picture

You are right, however, keeping gold truly depends on a person's financial position.  If you don't have much in terms of fiat dollars now, converting to gold is not wise.  Silver is a much better proposition.  If you do have money to spare (in terms of knowing you won't have to use it for essentials during the reset) gold is ok, but still carries with it a risk of exposure especially today when most people will leave some type of electronic record of there purchase making it easy for the government to track.

chubbar's picture

I think it is a false assumption to think the authorities don't EVENTUALLY want to revalue gold to a MUCH higher price. If you think about it, what would be easier than to have a bank holiday and revalue gold to 100,000/ounce or higher. ASSUMING that the U.S. has it's gold hoard, which I have my doubts, this would not only wipe out the debt but also allow additional money to be printed. If they floated the price vs gold (freegold type concept) then there really wouldn't be any limits to printing, although it'd wipe out bonds/FIRE economy, which are going to get hit hard regardless. If the system were to truly reset then one has to imagine a follow on system MUCH different then the one we now have but also allow the money changers to make money in the process. If the price is being held down to enable other countries the ability to acquire some using their printing press prior to the reset then this makes sense as well. Once all paper burns we'd still be left with the ability to conduct international trade and rebuild economies.

Sabremesh's picture

You own gold to retain your wealth, not spend it, so burying it for a prolonged period makes perfect sense.

There is a risk with any asset that someone might steal it - government confiscation is a form of theft - and you can't say an asset, including gold "fails" if someone steals it - it's not the gold's fault. Quite the reverse - the fact that somebody stole it attests to its value. 

SuperCycleBear's picture

That says more about your attitude to "them" than to gold!

Then the system was a gold standard now it is not. To get people to give up their gold now, they will need more than threats, they will need to find the equilibrium price...

Go Tribe's picture

Exactly. That's why I don't understand this love affair with gold. System collapse, government decrees, you hoard anyway and use gold to buy food. Government catches you and throws you in jail, except "jail" is a large tent city in Wyoming surrounded by barbed wire. That's a safe haven????

Withdrawn Sanction's picture

Gold: Never failed to perform in 2500 years..except for 1933, when they confiscated it...

It is precisely because gold DID perform exactly as it was supposed to that it was confiscated.  

If you want to run an inflationary fiscal and monetary policy, you cant also have a safe haven into which people can flee b/c sooner or later they will flee, which moots the policy of institutionalized plunder.


aphlaque_duck's picture

People who lost their "gold" in 1933 didn't have gold, they has treasury deposit certificates:

Nobody's fizz was confiscated. That executive order was not implemented.

cannonfodder's picture

While it is true that there were gold and silver certificates in circulation, there were also as many gold $10 and $20 coins (eagles) in circulation, and it was those which were removed as they were turned in at the banks.  The same thing happened 3 decades later with silver dollars, and the associated certificates.

Prescient_Point's picture

Just need to ensure that we are buying real Gold and not some Tungsten crap.

The Monkey's picture

Let's say somehow goverments stitch things together and event / systematic risk is mitigated.

Even so, why would anyone be long equities in this environment?  Embedded in the price of the stock market are forward earnings expectations that are way too optimistic.  Go fetch aggregate bottom-up forecasts and it will be clear to you that there is a huge problem staring the market straight in the face.

If the market is turning down for equities, we know lower grade corporate bonds and commodities are going to take a hit.

Regardless whether one thinks it's time to own gold, were not even close to a price point where US equities make sense - or nearly anything else that is positively correlated with them.

This is the easiest call on a bear market, maybe ever.  Amazing.

tahoebumsmith's picture

Bring it BITCHEZ... I have a 32' diesel pusher painted in camo pulling a 19' self contained pop up for the kids. Both are packed with 12 months worth of food and I added a 100 gallon tank to the diesel which gives me 185 gallons total. This will at least get me to one of the 5 destinations I have previously mapped out. I have a solar system on the roof of the RV that will keep the refrigerator and freezer going at will. We have a very expensive reverse osmosis water system that will filter water up to .00001% from any water source using the solar power as well. I also have protection on board ,35 Cal bottle rockets and 9mm roman candles to scare away the bears, check, Gold, check...Silver, check...alcohol...check, tobacco, check... Yaun check.. Swiss Franc check, Canadian Maples check... I just put 40' of  pre drilled kevlar armor underneath that can be installed in less then 30 minutes, check. I have an escape plan as well, if you think you will be able to go East on HWY 80 when SHTF, think again. Bottom line is this, I can always eat the food and the gold and silver will always be worth close to what I paid for it, in do time. My family always has their bags packed and know they only have a 1 hour notice. Good luck, I'm not worried so much about a dollar collapse or Wall St. finally getting their butts handed to them as much as a #4 reactor in Fukushima falling in on itself or some kind of computer virus attacking the American electrical grid that would send everybody into CHAOS? I got less then 25k invested into this and personally feel it is more valuable then any other asset I own at this point. I'm not a prepper, just a parent with a plan...Do you have one?

Bananamerican's picture

Tahoe, can you elaborate a little more on the solar/water system?

tahoebumsmith's picture

Here is where I started with the unit.. What was purchased isn't the same as what I have as many modifications were made.

See you in the woods partner....

Golden1182's picture

can you post a pic of that 'bad ass mobile unit'????

salvadordaly's picture

SSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!! First rule of fight club! I know you just lost everything in that boating accident, But do not try to find it here. We have not been on the river lately. I hvae not seen anything on the water!

Missiondweller's picture

Impressive. I'm in SF and must assume I'd have to shelter in place but have acquired a fair amoint of food, water and camping goods. Still need a gun and ammo though.

I do, however have extra fuel stored in case I need to bug out.