Big Retail Sales Miss In Longest Collapse Streak Since 2008 Recession, Confirms US Consumer Zombification

Tyler Durden's picture

Today's advance retail sales for June was simply abysmal, printing at -0.5% on the headline, and -0.4% ex autos. Expectations were for a print of +0.2% on the headline and unchanged less autos. Gas was not the culprit either as ex autos and gas the miss was -0.2%, on expectations of a +0.2% print. This was the third consecutive drop in a row: the longest since December 2008, when the US economy was flat out imploding. Expect furious Q2 GDP revisions imminently once the sellside community plugs this number into bean counter abaci. Goldman will likely cut its recently downgraded Q2 GDP from 1.3% to 1.1% or even sub 1.0%, which is essentially stall speed. Finally, today's number confirms our biggest worry: the spike in May consumer credit was not for discretionary purchases: it was for staples. Do the math. Finally, building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers down 1.6%, the biggest sequential drop aside from gas stations. At least housing has "bottomed." Of course, EURUSD spiking on expectations of more imminent NEW QE.



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oogs66's picture

food stamp shortage :)

i-dog's picture

"Sentient beings say the US Economic Recovery is yet to show a pulse"

"Economists say all is well".

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

What this article doesn't take into account is that retail sales are now completely manipulated. How can you just talk about "retail sales" without mentioning our Federal Reserve's tightening, or the fact that banks refuse to lend? These are all factors which comlpetely distort retail sales, and prevent them from reflecting true aggregate demand. Sales would be far higher if people could get access to the credit they deserve, but without help from our Federal Reserve and congress, aggregate demand cannot reach a natural equilibrium.

buzzsaw99's picture

Outright lies? Shame, shame, MDB.

Jim in MN's picture

Indeed, with infinite wants, and sufficient credit, there would be no limit on aggregate demand!  Bullish for castles in the sky.

aerojet's picture

LOL, I don't think most people on here are smart enough to understand your humor.  It was subtle, but "if people could get access to the credit they deserve" was the tell. 

I think retail is humming along fine, it's just not what the retail industry wants the numbers to be.  How dare Americans consume less and balance their budgets!

TheCanadianAustrian's picture

Secretly, he's raging over his keyboard saying "What the HELL do I have to say without the use of wimpy /sarc tags to get these people to realize that I can't possibly be serious?!? AHBRLARGBLARGBLAR"

Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Yes. He got me last week. Someone needs to put a bell around his neck, or a  [sarc] tag next to his screen name.

smiler03's picture

He got you last week?? You've been at ZH for more than 2 years and he got you? Amazing.

BudFox2012's picture

This should surprise no one.  I know my recent credit purchases have all involved bean, bullets, or bandaids...

The Duck Stops Here's picture

"the spike in May consumer credit was not for discretionary purchases: it was for staples. Do the math." Oh Snap!

MFL8240's picture

Hope and Change worked well as did QE and twist.  Kenysian economics DOES NOT work, we will now bite the bullett with almost 16 Trillion in debt and no country on this planet will deal with us.

Randall Cabot's picture

Calm down, calm down, Bloomberg is reporting that the hot weather is keeping consumers home.

duo's picture

When food doubles in price, that should help retail sales?

Corn may break through $8/bu this week (maybe tomorrow).  Wheat up big also.

Is the $10 six-pack of Bud (made from rice and corn) possible EOY?

Spastica Rex's picture

Beer isn't supposed to be made out of rice or corn.

Freewheelin Franklin's picture



No German purity laws here, bitchez.

BooMushroom's picture

And sausages are not supposed to be made of mechanically separated, processed chicken.

But if you want to sell dollar beer and hot dogs, that's what you sell. Hard to draw people in with $4 Guiness and $4 bratwurst, even when both the taste and quality are clearly 4 times better.

Spastica Rex's picture

Yes - must have money left over for the important things like filling up the F350 King Ranch Edition.

Overfed's picture

LOL. Yesterday I saw an F350 King Ranch, duallie, with the Harley Davidson trim package. No tow hitch or fifth wheel.

How small does a guy's dick have to be to plunk down $50K+ for "privelige" of driving around in something like that?

scatterbrains's picture

Once they execute their smash and grab in the gold market I expect credit card purchases to spike (at least I'll be contributing).. thinking maybe 1300ish or so for the blue light special.

ltsgt1's picture

Only the unsophisticated communists do smash and grab. We here in west do stealth confiscation, we are civilized.

Winston Churchill's picture

Chairsatan speaks on Thursday to Congession Finance Cmttee..

Gold raid for sure,its happened the last four times  he spoke.

apberusdisvet's picture

Now factor in channel stuffing in autos and the number is much, much worse.

Jlmadyson's picture

Recession fully back on the table for the talking heads. Not gonna like that.

Meesohaawnee's picture

Kenysian econ works when the lone goal is to pump markets up to get a president re elected. Not saying he will but if the market traded at reality it for sure would not.

Jlmadyson's picture

Indeed. They have already admitted the market is 50% bloated from easing.

Everybodys All American's picture

Kenyan econ ... fixed it. It would be funny if it were not so true.

yogibear's picture

Time for Benny Bernanke and the Fed to print more, the US deficit to target $20 trillion and higher. Cash for consumer time.

Banksters have saturated the economy with debt.

The banksters built an economy on spending and debt rather than savings and investment.

When the deficits are no longer maintainable is when the can-kicking stops. Until then, watch the deficits and the BS build.


youngman's picture

"The banksters built an economy on spending and debt rather than savings and investment"

This is the exact opposite of what my father taught me..he was alive during the Depression....he hated bankers and never had a loan the rest of his life.....always saved for his purchases...

GMadScientist's picture

All by themselves, huh?

Why does that debt need to be paid? Seems, I dunno....odious, given the false pretenses presented by the banks to markets around the world and all. ;)

aerojet's picture

They did this because it was their ticket to control.  It's like the crack dealer giving out free samples until he has you hooked.  It was easy to make the case for massive debts and now look where we are!  And no political figure will do anything substantial about the problem, so that means the hard landing is inevitable. 

Joe Davola's picture

Would have been much worse if not for my wife and kids.

pepperspray's picture

Wife and I bought a new Civic in June. Put down the same as we did 5 years ago for the 07 Civic and the payments are exactly the same today. No inflation?

SoCalBusted's picture

payments are the same != cost is the same

I think you are missing a few variables in your comparison, even when the down payment is the same.

aerojet's picture

I'm not sure cars are a good measure--we're seeing the most price increases in goods that are necessities.  The prices of tvs are flat to negative, other durables are steady, cars, who knows?  A new car is not a necessity.  The .gov tried to run new car prices back up by squeezing the used market with the misguided Cash for Clunkers deal, but that sugar high is wearing off, obviously.  I guess my household "needs" one new econo-box type car, but instead, we're going to just keep driving (and fixing) what we have for another year or two.  I fix my own cars, so I'm already a weirdo in the US, anyways.  All I'm saying is that auto manufacturers are really feeling the squeeze as Americans continue to tighten their belts. 



buzzsaw99's picture

J6P cashed out his 401K to buy beans.

B. Biggs bought the big one I noticed.

aerojet's picture

That's a theory, but no substantial proof exists to back it up.  The people in trouble right now are the ones who didn't have 401Ks to begin with, so I'm having a problem even humoring you. 

lizzy36's picture

WHAT.....but i thought lower gas prices meant that consumers would buy more crap that don't need with money they don't have.

Seriously, the number of "sale" emails i get daily and the level of discounting, foreshadowed this result.

BudFox2012's picture

No kidding, glad to hear it's not just me.  I have to water cool the microprocessor in my computer just to keep up with the work my spam filter is doing the last month or two...

GMadScientist's picture

Yup. The sickly sweet parfum of desperation drifts in the air alright.

Definitely has that, "Please God help me make this quarter" vibe.

roadhazard's picture

People know oil will come back up to ridiculous levels at the first cool breeze. With the corn crop failing food prices take the place of "cheaper" oil. At this point there are no more "savings" only less demand as America goes deeper into financial coma. 

Spastica Rex's picture

I would like to see a chart showing the history of gasoline prices preceding presidential elections.

GMadScientist's picture

Maybe they're taking Mitt at his word and doing their part to halt the flow of Chinese goods through Walton stores the only way that will work: not buying them.

Randall Cabot's picture

Yikes! They even revised May down!!

jtmo3's picture

You silly people. Bad is good and good is gooder. Futures to turn green with a green day ahead.

q99x2's picture

Close Staples.

Roland99's picture

The drought is more than just lack of rain.


GMadScientist's picture

In this case it's a clan of beavers upriver (pun originally unintended, but allowed to stand once recognized).

quasimodo's picture

I'm going long Staples!

Oh wait, nevermind....