Big Retail Sales Miss In Longest Collapse Streak Since 2008 Recession, Confirms US Consumer Zombification

Tyler Durden's picture


Today's advance retail sales for June was simply abysmal, printing at -0.5% on the headline, and -0.4% ex autos. Expectations were for a print of +0.2% on the headline and unchanged less autos. Gas was not the culprit either as ex autos and gas the miss was -0.2%, on expectations of a +0.2% print. This was the third consecutive drop in a row: the longest since December 2008, when the US economy was flat out imploding. Expect furious Q2 GDP revisions imminently once the sellside community plugs this number into bean counter abaci. Goldman will likely cut its recently downgraded Q2 GDP from 1.3% to 1.1% or even sub 1.0%, which is essentially stall speed. Finally, today's number confirms our biggest worry: the spike in May consumer credit was not for discretionary purchases: it was for staples. Do the math. Finally, building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers down 1.6%, the biggest sequential drop aside from gas stations. At least housing has "bottomed." Of course, EURUSD spiking on expectations of more imminent NEW QE.



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Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:43 | 2619732 oogs66
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food stamp shortage :)

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:46 | 2619742 i-dog
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"Sentient beings say the US Economic Recovery is yet to show a pulse"

"Economists say all is well".

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:57 | 2619762 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

What this article doesn't take into account is that retail sales are now completely manipulated. How can you just talk about "retail sales" without mentioning our Federal Reserve's tightening, or the fact that banks refuse to lend? These are all factors which comlpetely distort retail sales, and prevent them from reflecting true aggregate demand. Sales would be far higher if people could get access to the credit they deserve, but without help from our Federal Reserve and congress, aggregate demand cannot reach a natural equilibrium.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:58 | 2619774 buzzsaw99
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Outright lies? Shame, shame, MDB.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 09:00 | 2619782 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Indeed, with infinite wants, and sufficient credit, there would be no limit on aggregate demand!  Bullish for castles in the sky.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 09:24 | 2619883 aerojet
aerojet's picture

LOL, I don't think most people on here are smart enough to understand your humor.  It was subtle, but "if people could get access to the credit they deserve" was the tell. 

I think retail is humming along fine, it's just not what the retail industry wants the numbers to be.  How dare Americans consume less and balance their budgets!

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 10:26 | 2620102 TheCanadianAustrian
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Secretly, he's raging over his keyboard saying "What the HELL do I have to say without the use of wimpy /sarc tags to get these people to realize that I can't possibly be serious?!? AHBRLARGBLARGBLAR"

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 10:37 | 2620140 Freewheelin Franklin
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Yes. He got me last week. Someone needs to put a bell around his neck, or a  [sarc] tag next to his screen name.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 14:53 | 2621178 smiler03
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He got you last week?? You've been at ZH for more than 2 years and he got you? Amazing.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:45 | 2619733 BudFox2012
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This should surprise no one.  I know my recent credit purchases have all involved bean, bullets, or bandaids...

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:44 | 2619737 The Duck Stops Here
The Duck Stops Here's picture

"the spike in May consumer credit was not for discretionary purchases: it was for staples. Do the math." Oh Snap!

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:46 | 2619740 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Hope and Change worked well as did QE and twist.  Kenysian economics DOES NOT work, we will now bite the bullett with almost 16 Trillion in debt and no country on this planet will deal with us.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:46 | 2619741 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Calm down, calm down, Bloomberg is reporting that the hot weather is keeping consumers home.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 09:05 | 2619813 duo
duo's picture

When food doubles in price, that should help retail sales?

Corn may break through $8/bu this week (maybe tomorrow).  Wheat up big also.

Is the $10 six-pack of Bud (made from rice and corn) possible EOY?

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 09:56 | 2619993 Spastica Rex
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Beer isn't supposed to be made out of rice or corn.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 10:42 | 2620152 Freewheelin Franklin
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No German purity laws here, bitchez.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 11:13 | 2620258 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

And sausages are not supposed to be made of mechanically separated, processed chicken.

But if you want to sell dollar beer and hot dogs, that's what you sell. Hard to draw people in with $4 Guiness and $4 bratwurst, even when both the taste and quality are clearly 4 times better.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 11:16 | 2620274 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Yes - must have money left over for the important things like filling up the F350 King Ranch Edition.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 11:30 | 2620321 Overfed
Overfed's picture

LOL. Yesterday I saw an F350 King Ranch, duallie, with the Harley Davidson trim package. No tow hitch or fifth wheel.

How small does a guy's dick have to be to plunk down $50K+ for "privelige" of driving around in something like that?

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:46 | 2619743 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Once they execute their smash and grab in the gold market I expect credit card purchases to spike (at least I'll be contributing).. thinking maybe 1300ish or so for the blue light special.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 09:07 | 2619821 ltsgt1
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Only the unsophisticated communists do smash and grab. We here in west do stealth confiscation, we are civilized.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 09:44 | 2619840 Winston Churchill
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Chairsatan speaks on Thursday to Congession Finance Cmttee..

Gold raid for sure,its happened the last four times  he spoke.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:46 | 2619744 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Now factor in channel stuffing in autos and the number is much, much worse.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:46 | 2619745 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Recession fully back on the table for the talking heads. Not gonna like that.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:48 | 2619746 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

Kenysian econ works when the lone goal is to pump markets up to get a president re elected. Not saying he will but if the market traded at reality it for sure would not.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:50 | 2619750 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Indeed. They have already admitted the market is 50% bloated from easing.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 09:03 | 2619796 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Kenyan econ ... fixed it. It would be funny if it were not so true.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:52 | 2619747 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Time for Benny Bernanke and the Fed to print more, the US deficit to target $20 trillion and higher. Cash for consumer time.

Banksters have saturated the economy with debt.

The banksters built an economy on spending and debt rather than savings and investment.

When the deficits are no longer maintainable is when the can-kicking stops. Until then, watch the deficits and the BS build.


Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:58 | 2619773 youngman
youngman's picture

"The banksters built an economy on spending and debt rather than savings and investment"

This is the exact opposite of what my father taught me..he was alive during the Depression....he hated bankers and never had a loan the rest of his life.....always saved for his purchases...

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 09:11 | 2619829 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

All by themselves, huh?

Why does that debt need to be paid? Seems, I dunno....odious, given the false pretenses presented by the banks to markets around the world and all. ;)

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 11:02 | 2620220 aerojet
aerojet's picture

They did this because it was their ticket to control.  It's like the crack dealer giving out free samples until he has you hooked.  It was easy to make the case for massive debts and now look where we are!  And no political figure will do anything substantial about the problem, so that means the hard landing is inevitable. 

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:49 | 2619748 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Would have been much worse if not for my wife and kids.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:59 | 2619780 pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

Wife and I bought a new Civic in June. Put down the same as we did 5 years ago for the 07 Civic and the payments are exactly the same today. No inflation?

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 10:45 | 2620164 SoCalBusted
SoCalBusted's picture

payments are the same != cost is the same

I think you are missing a few variables in your comparison, even when the down payment is the same.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 11:42 | 2620364 aerojet
aerojet's picture

I'm not sure cars are a good measure--we're seeing the most price increases in goods that are necessities.  The prices of tvs are flat to negative, other durables are steady, cars, who knows?  A new car is not a necessity.  The .gov tried to run new car prices back up by squeezing the used market with the misguided Cash for Clunkers deal, but that sugar high is wearing off, obviously.  I guess my household "needs" one new econo-box type car, but instead, we're going to just keep driving (and fixing) what we have for another year or two.  I fix my own cars, so I'm already a weirdo in the US, anyways.  All I'm saying is that auto manufacturers are really feeling the squeeze as Americans continue to tighten their belts. 



Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:52 | 2619749 buzzsaw99
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J6P cashed out his 401K to buy beans.

B. Biggs bought the big one I noticed.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 11:46 | 2620379 aerojet
aerojet's picture

That's a theory, but no substantial proof exists to back it up.  The people in trouble right now are the ones who didn't have 401Ks to begin with, so I'm having a problem even humoring you. 

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:50 | 2619751 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

WHAT.....but i thought lower gas prices meant that consumers would buy more crap that don't need with money they don't have.

Seriously, the number of "sale" emails i get daily and the level of discounting, foreshadowed this result.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:56 | 2619768 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

No kidding, glad to hear it's not just me.  I have to water cool the microprocessor in my computer just to keep up with the work my spam filter is doing the last month or two...

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 09:02 | 2619797 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Yup. The sickly sweet parfum of desperation drifts in the air alright.

Definitely has that, "Please God help me make this quarter" vibe.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 09:46 | 2619961 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

People know oil will come back up to ridiculous levels at the first cool breeze. With the corn crop failing food prices take the place of "cheaper" oil. At this point there are no more "savings" only less demand as America goes deeper into financial coma. 

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 10:01 | 2620012 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I would like to see a chart showing the history of gasoline prices preceding presidential elections.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:51 | 2619752 Duke of Con Dao
Mon, 07/16/2012 - 09:05 | 2619810 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Maybe they're taking Mitt at his word and doing their part to halt the flow of Chinese goods through Walton stores the only way that will work: not buying them.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:52 | 2619753 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Yikes! They even revised May down!!

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:52 | 2619756 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

You silly people. Bad is good and good is gooder. Futures to turn green with a green day ahead.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:53 | 2619759 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Close Staples.

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:55 | 2619764 Roland99
Roland99's picture

The drought is more than just lack of rain.


Mon, 07/16/2012 - 09:01 | 2619786 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

In this case it's a clan of beavers upriver (pun originally unintended, but allowed to stand once recognized).

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:56 | 2619769 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

I'm going long Staples!

Oh wait, nevermind....

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