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Biggest 2 Month Jump In Confidence Since May 09 As Housing Drops To March 03 Levels

Tyler Durden's picture




 

UPDATE: And then Dallas Fed manufacturing misses (at -3.0 vs +4.8 expectations) as expectations for future finished goods plunge as do current inventories.

 

As if we needed yet further evidence of the dichotomous macro data that seems to provide as much bearish fodder as bullish decoupling confidence, today sees a near-record two-month jump in conference board confidence at the same time as S&P/Case-Shiller prints at a seasonally-adjusted 103 month low. With the Richmond Fed also missing expectations (though positive), we remain in the miasma of CONfidence uninspiring macro data as the underlying sub-indices of the conference board data show little to no shift in purchasing decisions despite some seemingly incredulous ramp in confidence that incomes will rise more than they decline in the next six months.

The 2-month percentage change in the Conference Board's headline confidence data is the second largest on record - only beaten by the jump out of the March 09 lows, expectations for a continuing trend seem extremely unlikely given previous jumps. Furthermore, this shift still leaves us below the Feb 2011 post crash highs.

All the while, house prices continue to fall - now at lows not seen since March 2003.

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 12/27/2011 - 11:46 | 2013591 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Houses fall ,savings falls, Snap rises. I'm confident of the outcome

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 11:52 | 2013620 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

The numbers may be distorted.
Spending = buying silver
Spending = saving money

But yet, it's just called spending.
I'm confident savings are up

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 11:52 | 2013592 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Dallas Fed Dec Business Activity -3.0 Vs. Nov 3.2 (Vs. 5.5 Expected)

 

US decoupling?

Nah!

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 11:47 | 2013599 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

People always feel beter this time of the year......until the credit card bills come rolling in and that $1,000.00 of Christmas suddenly turns into $1500.00

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 12:06 | 2013672 pods
pods's picture

I don't think it helps now that they have learned to stream Hopium through your TV either.

That reminds me, I have to get the stop the TV thingy so I can run to another room and then start it again.

Somehow I think the future will be a mix between Wall-e and Idiocracy.

pods

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 16:04 | 2014444 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Dude, my credit card has electrolites!

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 11:48 | 2013601 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

What about the 4 million home foreclosures in the pipeline? Factor that!

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 11:49 | 2013605 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

It's the Christmas and New Year holiday season.  What's so shocking with an uptick in consumer confidence?  It'll be back in the tank by the time credit card bills start showing up.

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 11:49 | 2013607 clones2
clones2's picture

Nothing that can't be fixed with a little QE3 and another $1trillion addition to the "debt target"... :-)  /sarc

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 19:45 | 2014993 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Thats not sarcasim, thats political reality..

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 11:49 | 2013610 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I guess it's because everybody's drinking to much alcohol during the holidays....

That reminds me!
ROADTRIP TO THE FRIDGE FOR ANOTHER COLD ONE!
See you in 5!

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 11:52 | 2013617 rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

This has probably been posted elsewhere but I just saw it and it did not help my confidence, he puts it very very clear and concise...

Let's Make The Clawback Risk REAL

 

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=198650

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 12:06 | 2013665 steelrules
steelrules's picture

What else would one expect when the banks make their own rules, disgusting!

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 13:01 | 2013865 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Hmm, what about clawing back bonuses then?

Reminds me - transfer more money out of BAC soon.

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 13:06 | 2013885 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Here's a question - what if I wrote checks to myself and deposited it in another bank account..

Eg I have 10,000 in my BAC account. I write a check to myself for $8,000 and deposit it in my Acme bank account. How would they know that it's a "transfer"? They'd have to go through every single check for 90 days to see who the counterparties were.

And what if I transfer the money to my mother's account? Are they going to clawback the money from her?

 

 

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 13:19 | 2013933 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Also, what if I make a cash withdrawal? Let's say I have 2,000 in my BAC account, pull out $1,800 in cold hard cash, leaving $200 in the account. Are they going to claw back that money then? If that's true then they have to clawback all withdrawals over a 90 day period.

What if I pay my credit card $1,800? Are they going to claw back that payment from the credit card company then?

Sounds to me like a good strategy if you want to shut your BAC account down is:

1) Write checks to yourself/your mum and cash them in another account, or better still, if you're not worried about your personal safety, make cash withdrawals over a period of time and deposit it into another account

2) Change your expense pattern - eg pay off your rent/car insurance for 6 months. 

2) When the amount is small enough, take it all out in cash

Avoid either electronic transfers or bank cheques.

Molon labe bitches!

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 20:03 | 2015028 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

You don't get it...there will be no money period. What you have in your pocession will be all you have. If you work, you won't be paid as that money is gone as well. If you own stocks, you own paper...nothing more as there is no money..it's all gone...

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 20:27 | 2015063 smiler03
smiler03's picture

It's a simple rule "All your money are belong to us".

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 11:52 | 2013618 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I hesitate to bring this subject up. Who do you think is responsible for leading the CON game with these numbers on this country? I have my opinion but I'd like others to give there opinion.

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 11:54 | 2013628 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

See, see, what it is, is we're all community and uh and when you're community and when love enters into it...zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

http://video.adultswim.com/sealab-2021/daddy-needs-his-feel-good-juice.html

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 11:57 | 2013639 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Uh, why should we believe any of the data? 

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 11:58 | 2013644 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Let's ram the  OVERSIZED confidence horse pills down the public's throat.

Wow, f'ing shameless.

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 12:00 | 2013647 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Confident? What kind of morons do they ask anyway?

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 12:11 | 2013695 Sunshine n Lollipops
Sunshine n Lollipops's picture

In the spirit of the season, this month's survey was conducted in Who-ville.

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 12:26 | 2013749 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

didn't you hear? this whobalation was a complete flop, it was the worst holiday season one record, even with the last ditch 99% off everything for the next five minutes sale. Cindy Lou's dad was laid off from the post office, his two boys moved back home after college because they can't find jobs, and the Mayor had to hit the big red uber print-o-matic panic button just to keep who-ville out of default, unfortunately they only had enough paper to hold out for another month.

tough times everywhere...

 

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 12:00 | 2013648 steelrules
steelrules's picture

Maybe it's like the new home sales numbers from the last 5 years, some things are being counted twice? LOL

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 12:00 | 2013649 farmerjohn2112
farmerjohn2112's picture

People, the Sheeple digest what TPTB and lamestream media feed them: all is good, Black Friday was huge, Mega Monday was huger, blah blah blah.

Wait until Xmas comes due in 27 days...

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 12:04 | 2013666 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

I believe CC follows stock prices very closely, I suspect they survey those owning stocks, no?

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 12:14 | 2013707 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

I am a consumer and I am confident that I will have zero, zip, zilch, none, nada and absolutely no disposable income in 2012...at all.

so there you go, that's how these things are measured in the new Orwellian world we live in, I said I am a consumer and I am confident, the rest is just details that don't matter. twist the language and the definitions and these surveys can say anything they need to say. truth and accuracy are of course sacrificed, but one does what one must to preserve the ponzi.

 

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 12:25 | 2013745 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

...........as I mentioned before........when facts and research are swept under the rug, and "surveys" dominate headlines, the TPTB control of the MSM is obvious......surveys are useless

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 12:26 | 2013750 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Hilarious! Case-Shiller continues to fall and consumers are more optimisitic?

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2011/12/27/case-shiller-down-mor...

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 12:49 | 2013836 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i was happy to spend some time w/ my 30-something children

one, recently returned from hong kong & trying to sell a business model to the chinese, when asked about how the economy looked locally said: "dad, for san francisco, i have developed my own indicator:  the waiting to get a table in the Mission index.  now, the waits are getting longer, plus there are more restaurants opening and the wait-time is still getting worse:  bullish"

another of my degenerate spawn, recently returned from a trip to the e. coast:  "dad, the restaurants in the bigApple were  the same way, also albany, syracuse, wherever.  when i was w/ grampa, upstate, he said whenever he goes out to eat, the places are packed!" 

i don't go to retail restaurants too often, but the casinos generally comp dinners to the slot-addicted women who enjoy my company and the slewie index sez that if the buffets and dinners are free/gratis/for nothing, save me the corner booth for dinner or a decent-sized table in the buffet dining, ok, hon? 

Willie Nelson If You Got The Money I've Got The Time

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 13:12 | 2013907 MrBinkeyWhat
MrBinkeyWhat's picture

My community group gives food boxes away at Christmas. Last year 120, this year 220. Desparate folks waiting in line TWICE for a combined time of over 5 hours for a box of canned goods and other stuff.

This year we could not give away all the spoiled bread given to the food bank, unsold from Thanksgiving. This was luxury stuff. Pan cakes, gourmet bread, high end stuff from the Wal Mart Deli. I know, "gourmet stuff from Wal Mart"...but still.

There is no "economy" here. Greetings from Gulf Coast Alabama. Thanks again BP!

Happy New Year!

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 12:53 | 2013844 sbenard
sbenard's picture

The SHEEP(ple) have spoken!

Baaaa!

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 12:57 | 2013850 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Case-Shiller 20 back to 100 by 2015.  If not sooner.

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 13:30 | 2013926 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

May I say the Housing chart is uugly!.  That's what Bernank is trying to save.. good luck with it.

 

The millions of Deposits ie Loans to the Bank have been put into creaky floor boards, chinese drywall and moldy carpets. It's gone!! The stock market is just a circus sideshow to distract from the insolvent banking situation.  In fact saggier than Barney Frank's FNM man tits.  When the govt teet is removed they begin to sag.

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 13:34 | 2013985 Dr Hackenbush
Dr Hackenbush's picture

Sears didnt get the memo - shuttering 100-120 stores after very disapointing holiday sales 

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 13:41 | 2014002 smithcreek
smithcreek's picture

The number is perfectly legitimate.  They only count those who are "hopeful" or still "searching for hope".  If you haven't been able to find any hope for more than 99 weeks you aren't counted in the survey.

Tue, 12/27/2011 - 13:48 | 2014039 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Of all the phony "data" to dismiss, in either direction up or down, it is "consumer sentiment." The problems we have are not measured by this silly index. Consumers are back to doing what they have been trained to do - spend what they have, and then some.  Some people don't have, and can't borrow, so they're not "doing their fair share of the lifting."  No doubt the 1%ers living high on the hog are helping maintian the appearance of relative prosperity, while the poverty is hidden and not visible. 

The continued "resilience" of the American consumer (is that what it is? or just profoundly entrenched indoctrination? If you can afford it, who doesn't buy at least some stuff to put under the Consumermas tree? ) is keeping something moving out there. at more or less stall speed.   It is, to a degree, the reason we are seeing some better numbers, here and there (but coming off some serious lows).  There is, no doubt, an economy out there.  The question is, is it growing, since growth is required for ponzi-fiat-fed reserve-economy to keep going.  I think the answer is "maybe," or "barely" but not enough to keep the ponzi ball in the air, or provide a driver for employment, or help fix the housing market, etc. etc. 

The New Normal is all about stagnation and austerity. No catharsis of a creatively-destructive reset, just the drudgery of sameness, that's my principal 2012 prediction - hope you liked 2011, cause 2012 is gonna look just like it.     

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