The Biggest Obstacle: Record Shadow Housing Inventory, And How Obama May Have Just Popped The Consumer Spending Bubble
While today's foreclosure settlement deal is by some accounts expected to help the housing market, as the foreclosure pipeline is once again unclogged, it is unclear what this will actually do for price discovery and clearing levels when one considers the already untenable shadow housing inventory, which can be summarized simply as follows - excess supply. It is this overhang that has to clear before there is any hope for incremental demand interest. And since mortgage rates are already at record low levels, and only an MBS QE could do much to stimulate even lower rates (which has its own set of adverse consequences), it is now obvious that from a purely psychological standpoint as long as people expect rates to decline in the future, they will not commit to a new home loan today. What makes it even worse is that the excess inventory has to be literally burned to the ground for regular market clearing to resume. Unfortunately, as the following chart from JPM shows very vividly, the burning will have a long way to go: the most recent shadow housing inventory is now at an all time high. Think today's action will do anything to help the housing market? Think again - if anything it will simply see the number of foreclosed properties explode. Rather, what it will do, is finally redirect discretionary spending from all the squatters who have lived mortgage free in their houses for years back into mandatory spending such as rent and mortgage bills. For those unclear, recall this post quantifying the benefit of the squatter economy (i.e., non paid rental/mortgage payments going into discretionary spending) - kiss that $50 billion inflow into GDP goodbye. Paradoxically, by trying to fix housing, Obama may have just popped the consumer discretionary bubble, of which the biggest beneficiary is that one certain fruit-shaped company...
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Tyler's head to explode.. http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/02/09/warren-buffett-berkshire-shareholder-letter/?iid=SF_F_Lead
Obama nothing but a liar. From Dave in Denver:
Prosecutions is one thing, what do the conviction numbers look like? That is all that matters. my guess is worse, but it would be great if someone had the data.
in order to get convictions, obamarama would have to actually prosecute somebody. other than whistleblowers, of course. and PM owners.
Nothing will change unless the people change it and the first step towards that is turning off the corporate media.
Well said. Ding ding!
however obama is not just a liar: he is a thief (of hopes and dreams, of a nation of laws not men, of tax revenues and bond payments for the crony capitalist too big to fail) and a murderer as well (of first responders and funeral attendees, among many, many others).
http://www.salon.com/2012/02/05/u_s_drones_targeting_rescuers_and_mourne...
Wrong. During the 70's they prosecuted all kinds of people and got few convictions. During the 80's S&L crisis, regulators actually did their homework, focused on a the important cases and had a very high conviction rate with the net result of putting many banksters in jail.
I have slowly come to the conclusion that the landscape is so totally littered with miscreants and criminals that there is no mechanism by which authorities could sort through the debris to get convictions. Nuremberg defenses would proliferate. All we would get would be the pawns thrown into the court system. I see only one solution:collapse. The good news is that this solution looks fairly probable.
Throw 3 big names in prison each year and everyone else will behave themselves.
Nuremburg defense didn't work then and under a fair system, it would not work now. The problem is that the regulators refuse to prosecute anyone.
clone this guy, give him a few mil budget, some authority and step aside....... but that won't happen.
William K. Black
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_K._Black
The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One
http://www.utexas.edu/utpress/books/blabes.html
Anyone with even a marginally functionally temporal lobe has to understand that Obama is the best friend Wall Street ever had.
best friend? i was thinking more like a pimp/whore relationship.
Banking Houses: You're my #1 Obama.
Obama: I love you Banking Houses!
Banking Houses: Shut up and get back to work!
[slap!]
if i were unlawfully foreclosed upon and obama cuts me a check for $2,000, i'd put that cash all into PMs, hold on to it for a couple of years and then buy back the house with it.
Hell, at the rate we're going, you might be able to just buy the bank that foreclosed on you...
banker booty calls to the white house?
"slap"
i don't even wanna know...
I don't care for your analogy; kind of makes him look like a victim.
That rules out 80% of America.
Hate to bust up the 24/7 Obama hate-a-thon here, but you're way off the facts.
It's the GOP who led the charge to get this done. Obama originally vetoed the bill (HR 3808), which had passed both House and Senate, and made it stick. The House GOP voted 169 for, 5 against, in unsucessfully trying to force the bill past the veto. You're blaming the wrong branch of govt.
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2010/roll573.xml
I'm not saying the Democrats aren't corrupt as well, but the GOP is clearly worse. If you ACTUALLY care about this stuff, want to change it, and live in reality rather than FoxTV-land, you will vote Democrat in 2012 (unless you're lucky enough to live in the district of someone like Ron Paul).
---------------
The Democratic party absolutely has plenty of corruption - no argument there. But there is an obvious difference between the two parties. The GOP is way out front, in handing over control of America to the financial 'services' industry. Look at the vote totals, below, then explain to us how "there's no difference between the parties".
We can fix this problem in three years. Vote out the clowns who supported the takeover. If your two candidates were both involved, vote out the one who was the dirtiest of the two. Politicians are nothing if not good at scenting a shift in the wind. Do this for the 2012 and 2014 elections, and we'd have substantially different Congress.
The bankers have more lobbyists in DC than everyone else, combined. The GOP votes virtually in a block for every bill giving the bankers more control of DC.
E.g. Senate vote tallys:
Gramm-Leech-Bliley (repealed Glass-Steagall): 54 'yes' - 53 Republicans, 1 Democrat; 44 'no' - all Democrats
Dodd-Frank (weak piece of crap, but best Americans could do - Republicans fillibustered anything stronger): 60 'yes' - 57 Democrats, 3 Republicans; 39 'no - all Republicans.
House vote tally on Gramm-Leech-Bliley: 243 yes, 57 no. The 57 'no' votes were 50 Democrat, 7 Republican
The financial 'services' industry is donating to the Romney campaign at 5X the rate they're donating to Obama. Guess which one they think is better for their interests? The average donation to Romney's SuperPac is $103 thousand dollars, the average to Omaba's is 55 bucks.
You just used an awful lot of words to say, "my team is less shitty than yours." Even if true, you're still voting for shit. So by all means, enjoy your shit; you deserve it.
Booyah! Grunt! Belch!
Yes, I can see you're the ideal slave material that the GOP's 1-world order is looking for. Dumber than a post.
Point is, Chump, it actually does make a difference who you vote for - and that you vote. Politics is a messy business, like most mass human activities other than watching TV, and you are often presented with a choice of two shits. Pick the lesser shit, and eventually your choices will improve.
Way to confirm the accuracy of my comment. I disagree with you, therefore I support the GOP. Go blue team, rah rah rah, etc. etc.
ETA: I can't believe you topped yourself with your edit.
Are you 11? Where have you been for the past 4 decades? What part of history are you using to arrive at this conclusion? When you pick shit, you get shit. And as we've all seen since forever, shit does not turn into non-shit. In fact, politicians obviously have learned that we will pick ever shittier options, so long as they can convince us that "the other guy" is shittier. All thanks to good little cheerleaders like yourself.
You evidently believe that if you choose no one, things will improve?
In fact, the last decade has marked the lowest rate of violent death, per capita, worldwide, and the highest % of people leaving severe poverty. Hate to say it, but the world is actually getting to be a better place.
But, sorry to inject anything positive into your funk.
You are officially an idiot. "Look over here, something shiny," is not a legitimate argument. We're talking about shitty US politicians and now you want to talk about worldwide violent death per capita over the last decade? LOL GTFO.
ETA: Your edit, yet again, makes your comment even dumber.
If it's so evident, quote my statement that even remotely gives that impression.
What I clearly said is that if you vote for shit, you will get shit. That should be pretty self-evident, even for you, since this all started with you admitting that both teams are shit. It's just that yours is less shitty, so vote Democratic in 2012! How utterly convincing...
I would love to see references for your "statistics."
Here's option 3: rebellion.
Don't get caught in the guillotine, K?
I'm personally a passivist, just sayin'.
I'm curious how many of the keyboard warriors here are doing much to rebel against the system.
Throwing insults on a message board only does so much to topple the empire, y'know?
Get with it! This is NOT the place to report positive news. Things must be dreary, evil and on the brink of collapse 24/7. Unless you hate every public official, financial insittution and all media (except FOX) then don't bother posting. I keep waiting for any constructive alternative but have yet to hear a thing - simply guys reinforcing each others beliefs.
If we get rid of banks, Wall Street and all politicians, how will one get loans or invest in a business or repeal unnecessary legislation? Don't bother trying to discuss. All you'll hear is, "You got shit for brains" or "Shut up, sheeple" along with semi-intelligent strings of obscenities. Obviously, the products of American public education.
I don't think you had any effect. Maybe try again?
The public education system that your beloved politicians created. Sorry that we didn't attend the private school that the elites like you and Malia got to attend.
It's green shoots and the economy is booming. That's why the Fed needs QE3, the banks need to be bailed out, and we need more stimulus and deficit spending. Woohoo! Clear skies ahead.
Wrong, Pulpcutter. Wrongggg.
And why did you repost this tripe further down the thread?
Because he's a troll that is benefitting from the corrupt DC cesspool. Even in North Korea or Zimbabwe, there are those who defend the corrupt system because they are part of it. Destroying the status quo would mean that they will no longer be able to loot the public treasury.
Thank you PulpCutter for today's liberal talking points edition. You're the knuckle-dragging slave.
The GOP is led the charge for the mortgage fraud settlement - see the vote totals above.
Please be my guest, and try to defend the overwhelming GOP vote for the settlement. Obama initially vetoed the HR3808, and made it stick. As "Chump" might say, 'the shit's on YOUR shoes".
I can clearly picture you holding said shit and uttering, "Look what I almost stepped in."
Can't summon even the beginnings of some logic or facts to present, can you?
Let me guess: Fox News viewer?
NY Daily News:
Fox News viewers less informed than those who don’t watch news at all: studyhttp://articles.nydailynews.com/2011-11-22/news/30431182_1_fox-news-results-show-viewers
There are no facts or logic in any of this, knucklehead. Wake up.
The enviroment seems featureless to you, does it? Perhaps you should check to see if your head is up your ass?
We all know your head is so deep up 0bozo's ass that we can see your inbred face everytime 0bozo is reading from his teleprompter
Hmmm, you are claiming to back up your argument with facts...sorry but on your link I have to call bullshit. This was a poll conducted by a liberal arts college (Fairleigh Dickinson University ) out of New Jersey. Now that would be an unbiased poll wouldn't it? (sarc). Your attempt at protecting the current asshole in the white house and his den of thieves is a failure for the simple reason that people can walk out their front door, look up and down their street, and determine for themselves that things are worse now then they were 3 years ago. Obama will be tossed to the scrap heap of history on November 6, 2012.
Not only that, but it's the typical brainless leftist attacks on Foxnews, which has no following here. There are no Hannity or O'Reilly fans here. If someone doesn't agree with you, attack the strawman Foxnews.
They two are part of the corrupt establishment media just like MSNBC and CNN.
Hmm, it's so obvious, even a headless, nearly naked guy can figger it out! :>D
I don't think he understands that most of the people here aren't on the red or blue team. And can see clearly the BS and bias of the outlets.
Disclosure: I work in media (i.e. brainwashing/propaganda generation). Trust me, the powers that be in media think their viewers are idiots (and in most cases they are idiots like pulp mongler). Also stories are controlled from corporate - they do this by sending directives to editors, and if editors don't tow the line, they fire that editor and find a like minded one who will do as they're told.
The right left paradigm is a joke - read up on a thing called "wedge" issues and you will see how you are manipulated.
Meanwhile the biggest robbery in world history proceeds...
.how about Obama's latest appointment of the Monsanto lacky to the FDA? Even MoveOn is opposing it....get real Obama is worse than Bush.
but but but...what about Foxnews?
Final vote on Gramm-Leach-Bliley: http://clerk.house.gov/evs/1999/roll276.xml#N
Ron Paul 2012 (Voted No)
BTW, you may want to review what the temporal lobe does. Try learning what the big words mean, before you use them. May make you seem a bit less of a moron.
Sorry pulpy, but you should cut your losses here. Shrill is not an attractive trait.
Watauga, you present one of the standard chatboard responses, when you have no facts to back your position.
Its fun when the Democrats send in a dogma-drenched clown.
Another tactic, when you have no facts to base your view of an issue on, is to switch to personal attacks.
Care to justify the GOP's overwhelming votes in favor of the settlement? For example, the GOP voted 169 for the settlement, 5 against.
<crickets>
Well damn dude, you could've just admitted you were lost and looking for some GOP supporters to argue with.
Try here:
http://messages.yahoo.com/Government_%26_Politics/By_Country_or_Region/United_States/Politics/forumview?bn=18066891%23democratvsrepublican
Best of luck!
As I said initially, sorry to intrude on this 24/7 Obama hate-a-thon, but I thought it would be useful if I pointed out that he did veto the original bill, and make it stick. The push to the mortgage fraud settlement was overwhelming led by the GOP - see vote totals above.
But I guess it's easier for you to just whine incoherently, rather than analyze your situation objectively and try to do something about it. Might explain why you feel your life continues to go downhill, though.
It's like a swiss watch.
Both parties take turns trying to avoid a mandate. (I'm playing fast and loose with the term "both")
The only mandate they've achieved is...everyone agrees they all suck.
You forgot who controls the Senate and who signed the bill and who controls the DOJ. Of course we all know it's not their fault at all. It never is in your little world
sorry to interrupt your 24/7 GOP hate-a-thon and 24/7 0bozo love-a-thon with the facts. Make sure your Messiah gives you a reacharound on Valentines Day.
Sorry, but most folks here are no fans of EITHER the Republicons or Decepticrats. So, in a way, we do agree that the GOP is part of the problem, but we part ways in agreeing that the Decepticrats are better for us. Come back once you have an argument that does NOT rely on the false dichotomy of Decepticrats vs Republicons.
Yeah - watch "The Obama Deception" on youtube. You'll find the answer.
Regarding "facts", there's just too much on Obama for anyone to even know where to begin, and so many facts that for anyone who haven't realized yet that Obama is the purest shit there is, not much will help the addict in question to withdraw from Hopium successfully.
Anyways... watch the movie and then come back to reply.
Anyone with even a marginally functionally temporal lobe has to understand that Obama is the best friend Wall Street ever had.
He is, because he can say he's being tough on the bankers while at the same time giving them everything they want AND the 45% of this country who are liberals believe that he is being tough on the bankers and looking out for the "little guy"
I don't understand what all the fuss is about. This shadow inventory has Greek internment camp written all over it. Gyros for everyyyyyybodyyyyyyyyy!
Nice link 1004
+1
Shall we trust PAGE (Pan Asian Stock Exchange)
http://www.pagold.cn/List.asp?C-1-1255.html
10.3 Traders may declare to the Pan Asia Gold Exchange delivery and receipt of physical gold after traders pay in full at strike prices in accordance with directions of delivery and receipt.
Article 11 Delivery
11.1 Delivery points for physical gold are warehouses designated by the Exchange and warehouses designated by banks of the Pan Asia Gold Exchange Purchase and Sale Alliance.
11.2 Traders holding contracts of buying physical gold may apply to the Pan Asia Gold Exchange to file applications for physical gold delivery after they complete the remaining payment for the gold; those possessing physical gold of the Exchange may submit buy-back applications to the Exchange based upon proofs of purchases. The application time is from 09:00 AM to 3:30 PM during trading days. Withdrawal or buy-back of physical gold bullions may require withdrawal fees or buy-back fees.
11.3 The number of gold bullion that a trader withdraws shall be multiple integrals of 10 ounces; the minimum number is 10 ounces. Specific numbers and time limits for delivery are as follows (temporary):
Just consolidated effort to get retail out of bonds and into stocks. Considering there was another $1.8 billion outflow from US equity domestic mutual funds in the past week, and about 40 outflows in a row with two micro inflows, it is not working.
Yes, I would also add that there a number of examples of when Mr. Buffet has confused "money" and "value". It must be nice to have a government friends who can back you up while everyone else is performing without a net.
Flying Wellendas bitchez...
'Just consolidated effort to get retail out of bonds and into stocks.'
An attempt to have a controlled demolition of the Bondzilla. Let the subliminal messaging begin!
Can squatter population discretionary spending (splurging, wasting) really skew the whole economy that much?
Yeah. He probably thinks the added savings from refis makes it a wash. Don't worry. They can paper over every problem and they will.
Im not sure I understand how this is going to make those who are currently squatting and not paying their mortgages to start paying them again? Why not just continue squatting?
squatters to be deemed terrorists by our government in 3...2...
people current on their mortgage to be deemed terrorists by our government in 3...2...
Fixed it for ya.
Short answer: because they can now be foreclosed upon and evicted.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2195085
Sorry for posting something from that guy, but his early missives on fraudclosure were pretty good. If only he'd cut the pie-in-the-sky legalist crap, and stop being a tyrant.
Thank you for answering my question. However, is there a time frame for this to actually happen or can they basically get away with squatting for another several months or years while the paperwork is being pushed through the system?
Probably months rather than years..
The wise guy squatters won't be able to wave their Mers documents around and link their bad decisions and/or fraud to the banks fraud.
At least a bunch of attorneys will lose one of their business lines.
Largest inflow to ETFs. This is why high flyers (outperform) fly even higher.
These shills have been saying the same thing for over a year. The total return on the Lehman Agg was 784 basis points last year. Anyone who followed this advice got screwed. So much dumb money....
a. One skilled in elaborate and devious argumentation.
Unless the capital basis for pile A ( physical reality) survives an extinction event(aka global fiat currency collapse) of pile B and hence pile B would have to be reevaluated in terms of Pile A. I hate Piles.
And:
That's what she said.
Buffett sounds concerned.
I think Warren has not fully disclosed his holdings in this letter! http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Israel+beyond+politics/Buffett+acquisition+of+Iscar+puts+Israel+on+the+investment+map+7-May-2006.htm Warren Buffett: The name stands for unshakeable investment principles and long-term success. The head of the Berkshire Hathaway holding company now strikes again: He wants to buy two major American gold jewellery manufacturers and forge the biggest provider in the US from them. This is not a small deal, and it must be asked what the strange old gentlemen from sleepy Omaha in the State of Nebraska finds so exciting about it. http://www.mykbgold.com/2010/04/warren-buffet-in-a-gold-rush/Better add a "wedge" to that chart of future homeowners who will stop paying their mortage or realize the benefit of walking away.
Anyone who owes anything, will use this ruling to just walk away!!!
the big cash buyers will swoop in and buy up total blocks - gladly taking them off the banks books - it's happening now
the poor bastards that walk away haven't a prayer finding shelter once the banks change the housing-bankruptcy laws
chris dodd to the rescue
jmo
They'll go live in their parents basement. My neighbors daughter and family left in the middle of the night and walked from their bill. They get season tickets to the Reds, take vacations, keep memberships in healthclub, play on their Facebook/electrogadgets, drive a new vehicle, and, let their undisceplined kids run all over the neighborhood. Another guy further down the street- same thing. Teaching the next generation it's better to be a weasel. Teaches me I'm a chump for driving the older car and paying my bills.
think of water as a medium ,... now - "water always finds its own level"
some might discount this saying as hogwash,... but, what goes around comes around - there are no exceptions to the rule
jmo
Calvin ball game continues with no end in sight.
Green arrow. 'Calvinball' though.
Yes we are now officially the United States of Chiquita!
No Hope-
No Change-
No Bama
i wish there was 'no-bama',... that's change i can believe in
Ole' huevos grande!
We should replace the torch in the hand of the Statue of Liberty with a banana.