Bill Buckler Presents The Four Horsemen Of The (Financial) Apocalypse
As usual, "The Privateer" author Bill Buckler does a great job at summarizing a complicated, and quite terminal, situation in a few short sentences. Today is one of those occasions.
The Four Harbingers Of The Apocalypse:
There are four indicators today which show as clearly as anything can be shown the state of our global debt-based monetary and financial system. Any one of them alone should be all the evidence one needs that the system is unsustainable. Put them together and much more than the canary is singing.
- First, the most popular (measured by its nominal “value”) investment vehicle today is a combination of a bet that sovereign debt will go bankrupt and an “insurance policy” that if/when it does, the holders of the debt paper will be made whole. These are called “credit default swaps” or CDSs, conceived in the early 1990s and unleashed on the investment world shortly thereafter. The total of CDSs outstanding doubled every year from 2003 to 2007. This growth paused in 2008 - early 2009 and then exploded again with the onset of “quantitative easing”.
- The second indicator is the mere fact that it is now universally accepted in the investment world that the only “safe” government debt is one issued by a government whose central bank has demonstrated its willingness to print money.
- The third indicator is the fact that the “sovereign debt crisis” hype is focussed exclusively on Europe in a desperate attempt to prevent the discovery that everybody is in the same boat.
- And the fourth and last is Gold. On the paper markets, the price of Gold can and is being manipulated. Beyond Gold’s price appreciation is the ever increasing global demand for physical Gold and the fact that central banks throughout Europe and Asia are ADDING to their supply.
The worse the situation gets, the more dangerous becomes a “promise to pay” which relies on nothing except a central bank’s ability and willingness to PRINT. In these circumstances, the last paper asset standing will be the “money” - the actual CASH money - itself. Everywhere today, cash is king. But that old saying comes from an era when there were still limits on how much of it governments could create. Those limits have long since been removed. For REAL markets - you need REAL money.
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One word really says it all.
Insurance.
Aka The Pox upon man.
ORI
the-plan/
We are currently in the end of the game time of monopoly. You remember when you would play monopoly and reach the inevitable point where one person has the majority of the property and cash while the rest of the players have very little property and cash. The player with everything wants the game to keep going so they will usually offer a loan to the person who lands on their property but cannot pay the bill. This continues on until there is absolutely no way for the poor people to pay back any loans since they have mortgaged everything.
Face it, the rich do not and will not let the game start over. They have far too much wealth. They are the ones that make the rules. The game will continue on for as long as possible. There are so many players that the game doesn't have to end anytime soon. In the event that a new monopoly game is started, it will be under the guise of a new currency which allows for the rich to maintain their wealth while everyone else gets a momentary hand up only to be caught in the inevitable debt burden which will be impossible to walk away from.
They already made this into a movie...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLoB1eCJ93k&feature=player_embedded
Edit: I am registered to host a screening of this film in my small town. Those of you who haven't given up completely on the 'sheeple' near you should do the same. When the day comes, they will taste much better to me knowing I tried to save them.
F*ck Stiglitz.
Impressive line-up in that trailer. Thanks, I'll be watching for it!
Come on Tyler, another message that THE DAMN SKY IS FALLING.
Steve Keen has just finished telling us that THE SKY HAS ALREADY FALLEN and we just don't know it yet.
Oh, and the price of gold is not being manipulated by some large international conspiracy.
Come on Rat,... but the sky IS falling.
Ignore it at your peril.
wouldn't it be the canary's dead and it's the fat lady singing? niggling.
I don't know I am pretty sure Monkeys like Bananas!
now thats a statement we can ALL agree with right?
now thats a statement we can ALL agree with right?
""Zero Hedge, man, he makes my head hurt" was a typical comment from my Wall Street sources."
8 Rules of U.S. Government Spending
1. You do not use the word Default.
2. You DO NOT use the word Default.
3. If a law must be "broken," bent, or simply ignored to spend more money it is.
4. Only two Political Parties to a fight.
5. One Debt Ceiling increase at a time please.
6. No economic growth, no problem.
7. The Fed will print money for as long as it has too.
8. If this is your first time in Congress, you HAVE to raise the Debt Ceiling.
this is good!!!!!! lets keep this going
12. If we do not get the CPI numbers we want, we will change the formula.
13. Unemployment numbers, see point 12.
9. Never talk of unfunded liabilities (which are $116.6 trillion and growing at $6.5 trillion a year)
10. There is no war we cannot fund. Those are off budget.
11. What trillions in GSE liabilities? They are off budget too.
10.1) There is no war into which the USA can enter, no matter how blatantly aggressively or unnecessarily, that cannot be labeled "defensive".
RULE #14
If a government is "broke" or goes bankrupt the debt game is not over.there should be a CONTEST for who has the best "RULES OF FIGHT CLUB" => "RULES OF DEBT CLUB"
FIRST RULE --you never talk about debt
RIGHT. You talk about credit, and how important it is.
The 10 Rules of Fractional Reserve Banking
1) You do not talk about fractional reserve banking.
2) Gold is a traditional, barbaric relic that you can't eat, while fiatski BernankBux are a a refined modernity that are nutritous and satisfying.
3) You will memorize the secret text Zen & The Art of Printing Press Maintenance.
4) If inflation is surging, tell the media that it's not, but if it ever does, you'll mop it up in 15 minutes, guaranteed.
5) Hedonic adjustments & the birth-death model: Know them and learn to love them.
6) If consumption falls due to a shitty economy (that your policies inevitably help create), try to inflate prices through insane policies that disort markets further, so that you can claim that GDP is still growing (or not falling as fast, at least).
7) Never allow anyone to claim that economics is actually fairly simple, and viciously rebut such talk by claiming that economics is one of mankind's most difficult endeavors, and only a select few are intelligent enough to understand the dangers of sovereign nations printing their own money, interest free, and then add some very confusing and inconclusive studies that purport to show that what you just said is theoretically possible.
8) Always be mindful of who you truly work for, in the very odd case that the notion of trying to help the economy ever does begin to seep into your conscience.
9) Talk about transparency often while building even more opaqueness into the already very mysterious fractional reserve banking racketeering syndicate. Every central banker has an inherent duty to leave office with the public and imbecilic politicians even more confused about your role than they were when your predecessor left his post.
10) Who put the CON in CONfidence, eCONomy, and monetary policy CONtrol? You did, bitch. Own it.
THE RULES OF THE ELITE
1st RULE: You do not talk about the "elite".
2nd RULE: You DO NOT talk about POWER.
3rd RULE: If someone says "corrupt" or mentions morality, speaks the truth - the conversation is over.
4th RULE: Only two POOR guys to a fight. - the elite dont fight - just Win
5th RULE: One currency change at a time.
6th RULE: No power, no money - no point.
7th RULE: Elite will stay in power as long as the "others" let us.
8th RULE: If this is your first time in the ELITE CLUB, you HAVE to pay upfront.
"THE RULES OF THE ELITE"
Executive Summary: Heads I win; Tails, you lose.
"3rd RULE: If someone says "corrupt" or mentions morality..."
Point out that all things are Relative then vigorously challenge the questioner as to his right to play JUDGE! [rinse/repeat]
This must be read by everyone. Prepare accordingly.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/italy-next-week
Why the IMF was created and how it works
The IMF, also known as the “Fund,” was conceived at a United Nations conference convened in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, United States, in July 1944. The 44 governments represented at that conference sought to build a framework for economic cooperation that would avoid a repetition of the vicious circle of competitive devaluations that had contributed to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
maybe this is a NEW Brenton woods weekend (was a long weekend)
I didn't offer loans, I took blowjobs from the pretty girls and I took the pieces' daughters into my off-board stable
Perfect description of the real life game. I take my hat off to you.
Historically, the game ends when the other players kill the guy with all the money.
The game is over when the guillotine comes out.
- Jean Paul Marat
If the one word "Insurance" you intend to be synonymous with the one word "Gold", then my one word for you is "Absofuckinlutelyright"!
Riddle me this then Bazinga, why has gold been dropping since the beginning of September?
Nothing goes up in a straight line. You go right ahead, cling to your dollars. I'm hedging with metal and physical dollars in my possesion. Good luck at the ATM.
Gold may be the only thing left to sell at a profit. Everything else would have to be sold at a loss, and that don't feed the bulldog.
Ron Paul will surprise to the upside and begin chipping away at mainstream political boundaries and support. This potential is undiscounted in the markets (simply because at this point, it looks impossible). In the end, he will be a viable challenger for the ticket, or even decisively win.
Watch it happen over the next weeks and months.
Incidentally, I would not interpret this as gold positive. I would view it at USD positive.
Riddle me this VE, why did it drop 30% in 2008 and then double ???
By "dropping" do you mean a healthy consolidation?
You talking paper or physical?
what, does "physical" still cost you 1900 FRNs or something?
STFU with this nonsense
Because when the banks are broke the price of gold must fall as well. We saw this in 2008. Not true with oil because countries have to have that to kill that other country that just bought their gold fair and square.
Thank you! I was looking for a real discussion like they used to have on this board, not bunch of Ron Paulina's with idiotic one liners.
**
Because the central bankers et al are buying. TPTB always bring down what they want to buy.
None of the drops since 2008 have even touched the bottom of the channel. Look at some 5 and 10 year charts to see the trajectory. But you won't bother because your a troll.
**
Is that you,Dr Krugman?
you haven't heard?
scientists recently bioengineered a chimera virus contagious enough to wipe out half of humanity.
http://rt.com/news/bird-flu-killer-strain-119/
ghost protocol: wipe out huge human populations from bio-engineered virus to eradicate the mob.
I think thats how they will control the population. Who will get the vaccine? The useless eaters, because they make good slaves? Or the more intelligent people who make better slaves, but could become a threat? You can be sure there will be a vaccine to protect TPTB.
The vaccine won't work. It will be part of the plan... those who get it will be the expendible.
Try looking at how well it worked last "pandemic". Or how well it works each year on the seasonal flu.
It doesn't. But it makes a LOT of money.
#WinTheFuture
the proles aren't a threat (that means YOU are), they aren't even considered human. hedge accordingly.
LLoyd AssFeind for president!
http://www.salon.com/2011/11/26/goldman_sachs_announces_presidential_run/
wooot! finally it's out in the open!
no more proxy candidates. now we can stop pretending.
.....if only it were true....
oh well back to dancing with naked midgets on ice idol.
and at least there are 3 SOLD OUT NBA games on xmass day! woo hooo! AMERIKKKA FTW!
I guess some scientists were tired of waiting for the H and N genetic variables to shift naturally like slot machines, knowing that one day the H5N1 that would be THE killer strain would eventually hit.
This would really mess with that Facebook IPO.
except slot machines aren't random, they are programmed, so it's not that these "scientists" couldn't wait, it's that they are socio-psychopathic pseuodo-cultists. like say jay robert oppenheimer. or a myriad of others cognitively and with full intent clueless and compartmentalized. administrative evil. just doing my jawwwb, if someone chooses to weaponize it ain't my fault, i juss a scientiss. genes don't shuffle like slot machines. but i get your point.
Good point, Gangland. I guess I sometimes think of researchers locked in their labs, removed from the geopolitical realities of the world and thus, the ramifications of what their work will mean. That's not likely, as you accurately point out. Not in this day and age. And if that is their excuse, they are stupid.
And they are DEBATING whether or not to publish the recipe??????????????????
Stop the fucking planet. Time for me and mine to get off.
The influenza was the last great pandemic...it will be the next.
These scientists will kill all of us it seems. This virus makes anthrax look so benign you might snort it like cocaine
Last week everybody was going to starve because of peak oil , but this week its those evil scientists.
Bolivian solamente for me mang
Influenza strains are more resistant to the currently avaiable antivirals with each cycle. As I understand it, there aren't really many great new antivirals in the pipeline so alternatives are combination therapy, more aggressive dosing and IV or intramuscular dosing. I recommend ProMed.com, if you're interested in tracking H5N1. It's like zerohedge for emerging infectious diseases.
Those frigging scientists can't leave anything alone.
In gold we trust.
so since bill buckler let that ground ball roll between his legs he's become the go-to guy on all things disaster?
i'd like a second opinion from scott norlood if possible...
Thought we were talking about spam... guess gold will do.
Can one buy a CDS on a CDS?
No. But you can buy CDS on yourself when you know that you are going to default one way or another... so... um ... there's that to look forward to.
Enjoy
You can buy VIX vegas (volatility of volatility) so I don't see why not.
Yes
I bought a CDS from MF Global on MF Global.
My MF Gobal bond did not work out, but the trustee had me fill out some paperwork and has assured me that in time they will adress my CDS contract,and, I will get it and get it good.
No.
CDS is actually just another vehicle for fleecing.
The fact that the derivative market is growing towards a QUADRILLION should make your capital butt pucker.
I guess quintillion will slip into the parlance sooner than anticipated.
The BIS reported on two separate accountings, one for exchange traded derivatives and another for non-exchange trade derivates. The total of the two was $1.4 quadrillion dollars. Jim Sinclair pointed this out to illustrate how impossible it is that the banks could survive this flood of liability or ever pay these contracts off. Someday, cash will only be defined in relation to gold.
RE: " CDS is actually just another vehicle for fleecing."
Serious question, what is the commission payout on CDS instruments? When I was a bond trader, we would get them from the "Bond Desk" and mark them up a half, or, one to two points etc. But they had already marked them up from the price at which they bought them.
A more accurate question, might be to ask what is the typical spread between the bid and the ask. Since they are not traded on a regulate exchange, that information is difficult for me to get? Anyone?
Hate to break it you, but the CDS isn't magic. It too is a "promise to pay" that could very well be worthless if 1) the CDS issuer is bankrupt or 2) the "Powers that Be" declare that no soverign default has occurred (even when it obviously has). Unfortunately, all hedges are subject to politics and promises--even gold (which the Government could outlaw tomorrow).
Quite true, we saw this in the first financial crisis. The wave that took out Merrill was th secondary wave of insuraance that was supposed to come from bankrupt insurers. ANd currently, it is the reason that there is no "netting" of exposure in Europe to anyone who is sane...Your exposure is the amount of bonds you hold, regardless of how much offsetting "insurance" you have purchased...there is no hedge in CDS, as all counterparties are bankrupt under the maximum fallout scenario.
i had close friends at ML during the collapse.
the gist of the game is really this - i think greece is going under. i buy cds from CP (counterparty) xyz - for $x paying 60 bps fee for 10 years.
next day - rumor in my favor. i SELL cds to CP abc for $x (notice same notional) receiving 65 bps for 10 years.
i'm a g-damn financial engineering genius. notional nets each other out - and i'm getting FREE 5 bps for 10 years on $x.
make $x some large amount.
in reality the whole thing is out of control for the following reason.
1 - as the rumors shift, i just keep laying on more and more bets (oops - sorry - i meant positions). i'm a trader. what do i do all day - trade in and out.
2 - marks don't mean a thing in reality.
3 - the biggest lie is assuming every counterparty exists tomorrow to pay each defaulted bet in full. just not going to happen, which is why GS was able to get 80 billion pumped into aig to make it as whole as possible.
blah - blah- blah. whatever. i know where this is headed, just not sure when. timing is everything.
it might take a long time - but there will be a lot of tears, and it won't all be from walmart shoppers. sorry to say that.
Just a technical clarification, but AIG has received in excess of 180 billion taxpayer dollars (so it could pay Goldman, JP Morgan, etc. on its derivative bets).
ooh, a second derivative, negative, no doubt !
Not unless you also buy insurance for both.
Yes. How much money do you have? For a fee of say...a billion dollars...I'll write one on this napkin I have here and....
And if you'll buy that from disabledvet, I have a unicorn for sale, I'll work you a deal you can't refuse!
'The third indicator is the fact that the “sovereign debt crisis” hype is focussed exclusively on Europe in a desperate attempt to prevent the discovery that everybody is in the same boat.'
If by 'everybody' you mean US and UK then yes.
Is there any source to the claim that European central banks are increasing their gold holdings? China, Russia, yes. But Europe? I hadn't heard that one.
if you were a CB in this world, what would YOU be doing?
Everything I could to prevent a triggering event!
buying us treasurys? :)
or maybe BAC shares. C is hoping for more investors from singapore.
if you were a CB in this world, what would YOU be doing? putting my head between my legs and kissing my ass good buy.
A better question would be; How does a CB know when they are fucked?
When they look into the heart of the plan they realize it's a very complicated plan. I love it when a plan comes together.
One sentence says it all:
*This is why there's such urgency to get emerging economies hooked on consumer/business/government borrowing - the Fiat Masters behind the fractional reserve banking racket need a greater base of debt slaves, just as Rome had to keep expanding, for survival.
I'm dusting off a classic:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IymklQKT-lc
agree. Funny how such a simple concept can disrupt the whole show. Problem is that we are all connected to it, I personally feel the wild card is what we assume 'value' is for anything. I think they are messing with the entire concept of 'value' and that will involve us all in an uncomfortable way. I think my house is worth about X, and I have X investments and X in the bank...those amounts are in flux but I generally know what they are. The system teetering puts all that in question.
Boy.....
Sure lucky they sell Credit Deault Swaps.
They seem like the safest thing going these days......
Ha.ha......suckers.....
If your the ECB....
"Safe" government debt is about more than any central bank's willingness to print. It is about having a military to back it up.