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Bill Gross On Europe's Dysfunction And US Double-Dips

Tyler Durden's picture





 

PIMCO's Bill Gross spent a longer-than-soundbite period discussing QE3, the chance of a US double-dip, and Europe's ongoing dysfunction with Trish Regan on Bloomberg Television this afternoon. Given more than his typically limited-to-ten-second thoughts some other media outlets appear to prefer, the old-new-normal-bond-king believes the Fed will resist another round of quantitative easing in the short-term but "if unemployment begins to rise for two-to-three months then QE3 is back on". Noting that investors should focus on nominal GDP growth tomorrow, he goes on to dismiss the idea that the US can decouple from a troubled Europe pointing the political dysfunction between the Germans and the rest as greater than the polarity between Democrats and Republicans here at home. Preferring to play a slightly levered long bet on low rates holding for a longer-period, he like MBS (as we have discussed in the past) but does not see the 10Y yield dropping precipitously from here though he does echo our thoughts entirely in his view of the 'flow' being more critical than the 'stock' when it comes to the Fed's balance sheet and hence the June end-of-Twist may be a volatile period for all asset classes.

 

Gross on whether he's betting on another round of quantitative easing:

"I don't at the moment. I am willing to listen and I did listen intently at the press conference and to prior speeches from Janet Yellin and Mr. Dudley in New York. The big three at the Fed I think have moved closer to the middle in terms of the need for additional QE. They in the market are going to wait for the next eight weeks for two key employment Friday reports between now and then, as well as tomorrow's GDP number, which I think should be judged in my opinion by nominal growth as opposed to real growth.  The Fed does not target nominal GDP. They target inflation though. They want lower unemployment, which requires 3% real growth. So the 2 plus the 3 equals a 5% nominal GDP growth target, which the Fed really wants to shoot for. So watch tomorrow's numbers and don't be dissuaded by the 2.5% number or the 3% real growth number.  It's the nominal growth number that is key."

On whether the Federal Reserve will resist an additional round of quantitative easing:

"I think so.  The Fed does want unemployment to come down.  It has been coming down.  As a matter of fact, it's lower than their prior projections were.  There's little doubt in my mind that a target for unemployment of at least 7% and perhaps lower is what they're shooting for and that is going to require, 6, 12, 18 months, in my view. It might and probably will require, maybe not on June 30, additional quantitative easing. Quantitative easing is basically writing checks. The Fed's been writing checks, the ECB has been writing checks, the Bank of England has been writing checks, even the Bank of Japan has been writing checks. This is $2-3-4 trillion worth of check writing that has supported financial markets, but in turn has allowed for employment growth and lower unemployment. I really think that it's required. I don't welcome it from the standpoint of the negative consequences, but I think it is required."

On whether he would rule out QE3 down the road:

"I don't think so.  The Chairman has not ruled it out.  Again, to reaffirm, if we see some weak employment reports over the next two months, then QE3 is back on."

On whether there's a risk of a double-dip recession:

"I think so, if liquidity disappears. That was the recessionary implications of 2008 and 2009. Investors fled to cash and it was up to the central banks to re-liquefy the markets and  to lever the markets, which they have done. If you have problems in euro land where money basically flees to the center, to Germany, to banks, to cash, as opposed to outward, then euro land continues with their recessionary environment. Ultimately that effects the United States.  We at PIMCO are not believers that the United States can simply go it alone on this 2-3% growth path without other countries and other continents participating at the same time."

On when inflation will hit:

"It has already started to hit. Let's look at it this way. In a very slow-growth, in euro land, a very recessionary environment, we still have inflation at over 2%. It is really remarkable. The amount of easing we have seen over the past three years in terms of quantitative easing and extremely low policy rates everywhere has really been an inflationary thrust. I think even the Chairman would be willing to acknowledge that. None of them are willing to acknowledge that it will not come back down. They still think it will be 2% or lower. We suspect not. We suspect, like the Bank of England, Mervyn King always writes letters of apology, saying that the 3% inflation will really become 2%, all we have to do is wait. I think that will be the standard, you know, we will hear from the Chairman and other Fed officials that inevitable inflation will come back down to 2% or maybe lower, but I suspect it will not."

On whether a breakup of the euro zone will happen in the next several years:

"We certainly do not want that. A break up produces disastrous short-term consequences. I think markets know that and policymakers know that, too. Euro land is a dysfunctional family, more dysfunctional than Democrats and Republicans in Washington, DC.  The Germans versus the Spanish and the Germans versus the Greeks in terms of ethics so to speak and fiscal discipline is quite a disparity. It's really that requirement for Germany to begin to write checks not only through the ECB, but to basically subsidize through their own fiscal maneuverings, that produces the problems. The Germans, for a long time, have supported East Germany in terms of the amalgamation of the two countries. They are not quite willing to go that far in terms of the big family in euro land and so those are the problems we see on a day to day basis."

On the employment reports coming out:

"They are beginning to move lower, it appears. Ben Bernanke spoke to that and answered some questions in terms of seasonality. We may have seen some strong seasonality in terms of prior reports, not last month's, but the two before that. We have seen initial claims on unemployment move up today. They have indicated for the past three weeks that we are really moving into a weaker employment framework, which would probably produce 150,000 jobs, but not the 200,000 that really got the market excited."

On where he sees the 10-year at the end of 2012:

"I see it around 2%. It is dependent on the Fed continuing to buy 10-year Treasuries. It will be interesting in June to see what happens if the Fed stops writing checks. Basically the Fed says that this is a stock type of argument. It is really like a wine cellar. They have taken half of the wine out of the seller and now they basically said that at the end of June, it will be up to the private market to restock the wine cellar because it is empty. I basically take the flow view that says, hey, at 1.95%, not much of a value there.  So let's see, if the Fed doesn't buy them, let's see who else will. It will be an interesting experiment at the end of June if the Fed does not do a quantitative easing, but for the moment, I think the 10-year stays at where it is."

On mortgage-backed securities:

"Mortgages benefit from inactivity and low volatility. A mortgage can prepay or a mortgage can not prepay. So that shifts the average life of a mortgage back and forth.   For that negativity and for that optionality that that mortgage holders holds, you get a higher yield. If you expect yields to stay the same for the next one, two or three years, then the 100 or 150 basis points from a mortgage is much better than 2% from a 10-year Treasury."

 


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Thu, 04/26/2012 - 19:24 | Link to Comment I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Double Dip my azzz. Triple Dip is on its way

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 19:50 | Link to Comment The They
The They's picture

Why does he keep winking?

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 20:05 | Link to Comment ZeroSpread
ZeroSpread's picture

He's reading off a teleprompter but hasn't gotten used to it completely yet..

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 19:29 | Link to Comment The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

2% for 2 years?  try 15 years of 2 % 10y

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 20:38 | Link to Comment bobert
bobert's picture

PST I hope you're wrong.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 19:32 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

If unemployment stays high the fed will be forced to hand the bankers even more bonuses. :vomits:

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 03:16 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

And if unemployment stays high your taxes will skyrocket to pay for their bonusses so the money can trickle down and save the economy!

REMEMBER! : IF THEY BUY A ROLLS, THEY SUPPORT THE ECONOMY!

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 19:36 | Link to Comment Hansel
Hansel's picture

In other news, Bill Gross was wrong about QE3 in April:

March 12th, https://twitter.com/#!/PIMCO/status/179257627304398848

Gross: Expect no news from Fed 2morrow but April meeting holds promise for a QE3. must keep buying bonds that the market doesn’t want.

March 25th, https://twitter.com/#!/PIMCO/status/183915104960651265

Gross: likely to hint @ QE3 in April meeting.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 20:59 | Link to Comment Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

I was wrong, too.  mortgages still doing well.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 19:39 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Why does he want MBS now?  Why are paper junkies always switching their paper addictions from one type of shit to another?

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 20:11 | Link to Comment lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

it's like silvers and golds, you switch it up to even out the colors and designs.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 19:41 | Link to Comment The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

I´ve been saying it all year long: there will be no outright QE in 2012. Twists, LTROs and so on but the blantant check writing that is QE will not surface unless we have a cataclysmic event. 

 

Once Romney is installed in the White House and Bernankes got his job at The Squid/BoA/JP Morgue secured perhaps we´ll see some asset purchases but not this year. 

 

And why are all the female reporters at Bloomberg so hot? 

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 19:58 | Link to Comment Jake88
Jake88's picture

Trish Regan hot? Maybe if she didn't speak.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 20:01 | Link to Comment The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Like 99% of all hot women then...

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 20:18 | Link to Comment infinity8
infinity8's picture

Cheerleaders make my teeth itch.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 20:03 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

I doubt Romney is going to win. I've been saying Obama vs. Romney with an Obama win for well over a year now. I'm going to stick to it.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 20:15 | Link to Comment The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

We´ll see. One loser in the election is certain though: the American people.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 19:41 | Link to Comment Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

Kinda funny, actually, that if the BLS were to provide a more accurate employment picture the Fed would probably have what it needs to launch QE3. But since the employment picture is "improving" no can do.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 20:26 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I feel compelled to comment here even though i have no clue about "employment anything" other than the fact that i am employed. I will be...brief. "How many illegal aliens are counted in this number" would be my question. Any?

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 19:48 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

If unemployment rises QE3 is back on? What logic is that? Oh wait, FED logic. QE hasn't helped unemployment at all, but it's bad news for stock prices. And that's all that matters with this phony bologna shell game.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 19:52 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Bernanke's consistant. Keep the printing presses set at max. As people are saying QEing to infinity. Many failing countries have done this. 

In the mean time the US breaks through debt ceiling after debt ceiling. The mountain of US debt keeps growing. 

Soon more than 50% of each dollar collected will be used to pay debt. 

About 10,000 baby boomers become eligible each day for Social Security

The US will have to keep rates low or else game is over. 

 

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 19:56 | Link to Comment greensnacks
greensnacks's picture

"The Germans versus the Spanish and the Germans versus the Greeks in terms of ethics so to speak and fiscal discipline is quite a disparity. It's really that requirement for Germany to begin to write checks not only through the ECB"

 

The Germans shouldn't have to write a check. They earned that money and are the job creators for the rest of Europe. They should be allowed to spend their money how they see fit and the jobs problem will take care of itself. ;)

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 19:57 | Link to Comment Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

Bill has a good track record however, with so many variables like the 2012 Election, The US Debt Ceiling, The State Debt Crisis in CA, NJ, and Il, nuclear Iran, Afganistan, and the Euro crap .... how can anyone even predict what they are having for breakfast tomorrow?

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 20:00 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

He is boring.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 20:41 | Link to Comment bobert
bobert's picture

He get's it from Muhammad El Arian.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 20:44 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

that's a compliment. the question is "do you buy his logic." it seems contradictory: "QE but the 10 year will remain at 2%." When we QE'ed treasuries got hammered. When the Fed TWISTED treasuries soared in value. I would call this "getting your sea legs." Obviously the Fed Chairman is...leading...THE TREASURY MARKET...the "largest and most liquid financial instrument in human history." To that i say "excellent work!" To which i have no doubt he would respond by saying "i'm not even doing anything"? To which i would reply "EVEN BETTER!" (cuz the last guy we had who had convinced himself he was moving the market blew up the entire US Banking system! Something tells me "we'll be waiting for the apology for a long time.") Anywho...my personal view is "we're in a sweet spot"...low inflation, interest rates literally PEGGED to zero, markets "behaving with PERFECT rationality" and "going for yield". This is not "revolutionary stuff." Stocks offer COMPELLING value since "the come with a growth kicker" and "pay a dividend." The question folks like Maria B RIGHTFULLY ask is "where's the volume"...but she is mistakenly looking at the market INSTEAD OF THE COMPANY ITSELF. If i can generate massive amounts of cash flow through my company "even though i have margins of nearly nothing and profits near zero (!!!) i can have a PE of over 100!" (Amazon.com. WONDERFUL company. And "that's my fatal attraction to the nat gas space." HUGE cash flows! Cheap price? EVEN BETTER! "the crack just dropped in price"...and off we go! But enuf of that! "I'm off to Part 2 now!" Aerospace!

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 21:20 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

he trades bonds

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 21:02 | Link to Comment tu-ne-cede-malis
tu-ne-cede-malis's picture

For the perma-bears like myself, it would seem to me what we want the economic numbers to actually improve.  The markets will rally, and the Fed will find reason to turn off the money-supply spicket.  When that happens, look out below!

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 22:55 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

The market *cough* rally today on an ocean of bad news and the hopes of more QE. Yet, if the market never drops, then QE never has to happen.

Ol Ben is capitalizing on the moronic traders and algos. I'm damn close to taking my ball and going home. It's not worth the stress.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 21:07 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Look as long as one person has a quintillion dollars while everyone else has zero in a winner-take-all economy it's a win. 

 

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 21:15 | Link to Comment slewie the-pi-rat
slewie the-pi-rat's picture

I always viewed Gross as a Dimon/Blankefien type in sheeps clothing.

 

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 21:41 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Fake.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 22:15 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

PIMCO is a sub of Allianz SE of Munich - they are talking their own book

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 22:42 | Link to Comment Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

SIMPLY THE FED'S VIEW HAS NOT CHANGED MEANING QE -> YES, DOUBLE DIP -> YES & UNEMPLOYMENT UP OR FLAT -> YES...HENCE QEEEEEE...THE REST IS GARBAGGE

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 22:49 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Gross thinks the global orgy of money printing is creating lower unemployment... someone please explain that to me.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 23:35 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

So if GDP comes in higher than expected the market takes another rocket to new heights, if GDP is terrible the market takes the same rocket to new heights because that makes QE3 certain.

The only way off the crazy train is to blow up the engine.

Fri, 04/27/2012 - 00:02 | Link to Comment Change-In-Trend
Change-In-Trend's picture

  • My short S&P 500 position remains in play but is currently underwater. Rather than add additional shorts into strength i decided to keep my position sizing in order to reduce any more exposure to higher prices. 

  • If we are due for a higher close on Friday i will exit my position at a loss and protect my capital.
  • The equity cycles are suggesting that a move down is now imminent.
  • 3 Dow bellwether stocks, Microsoft, Exxon Mobil and and Boeing are already showing signs of weakness.
  • Exxon Mobil is showing signs of peaking at a time cycle high with a very strong dominant trend and high statistical probability. (see attached)
    • The USD Dollar ETF (UUP) is poised to move higher.

    https://www.dropbox.com/sh/ip40fvw18u62s2s/ToZcF9tITd/27%20Apr%202012

    To subscribe to newsletter email:

    change.in.trend@gmail.com

    Fri, 04/27/2012 - 00:11 | Link to Comment q99x2
    q99x2's picture

    He said that if unemployment starts going up then more QE. Well with so many falling out of the statistics we are safe there. No QE

    Fri, 04/27/2012 - 03:29 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
    AldousHuxley's picture

    If QE, then Gross complains because money flows out of his bonds into equities

    If no QE, then Gross complains because deflation brings down equities and bonds together.

     

    Gross wants just enough QE to keep all the money into low yield bonds......that's his business.

    Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!