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Bill Gross' Explains The FOMC Decision: "QE 2.5 Today, QE 3, 4, 5 … Lie Ahead"
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Is Gross an overloaded operator here? Both the analyst and the analysis.
Bill Gross calls it like it is, QE to infinity, it is the only option the government has left!
http://jimrickards.blogspot.com/
I think he's become a ZHer... What's his Avatar?
there IS no other option.
Organic credit growth is in reverse. The Fed will either print the coupon or else the monetary system will collapse...within hours. Without the CBs STILL guaranteeing coverage on all accounts, commerical paper - they ARE the interbank market now - there would be no money.
All the cash in existence is subject to loans. Loans mathematically WANT to be paid back. Every bank, everybody in debt, everything would vaporize very quickly if the Fed does not fill in the gap between interest owed and new credit created.
EXACTLY, no surprise here. It will be just like for Japan. And boy it lasted a long time there... They experienced a dozen of QE there so don't act surprised when Ben sticks it into you
"And boy it lasted a long time there..."
It never ended did it? An entire generation waited for it to get better (too long to have children), now the population is in decline.
Bill Gross is the junk bond king.
Core CPI has continued to fall, in spite of everything they have thrown at it, including the kitchen sink. If the Fed's massive balance sheet expansion and $787 billion dollars worth of fiscal stimulus have not moved the needle on this trend, what will? The answer is nothing. Nothing that is not ridiculous, nothing that does not politically lead to an opposite reaction so strong that it could cause a faster deleveraging and deeper deflation.
Deflation looms. It is coming.
You and Bernanke can take your razor-blade-studded, double-headed dildo of "Core CPI" and mutually fuck yourselves with it.
If you even DARE suggest that the grossly manipulated and laughably irrelevant Core CPI bears ANY relation to the REAL cost of living increases of the average American, I have nothing more to say to such a clueless and/or dishonest pro-Establishment defender other than "Fuck you".
And so do Elvis and Bigfoot.
He is ruining BB's surprise!
he's a fucking self-interested douche upon whom it is dawning that he won't be able to risklessly collect RENT forever. The Fed will buy his assets out from under him and dilute his coupon.
Gross is a "bond king" facing an interest climate where ZIRP is the highest rate you can charge to borrow money.
After the "riskless" bonds all go to 0% under the Fed's umbrella, look for this to drive yields down across the spectrum. Long dividend payers with good cashflows.
You can't get 5% these days easily. The roys and mlps are the only ones on that "stock screener" these days.
/ sarc
No... The Fedreal Reserves does not print money and all of us ZHers are lying morons
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/no-fed-does-not-print-money-just-explain-150433185.html
/sarc end
Your right, they have no more options left. All they are doing is buying time, but buying time for what?
You've got to be totally brain-dead to buy US Treasury bonds. You are guaranteed to lose money when the interest rate is below the inflation rate.
How difficult is that to understand?
Or brain-less, ala any institution.
It isn't difficult unless you understand a little bit of geopolitics.
Return of (slightly less) capital vs return on capital?
No one believes in equities, try their darndest to get people to take risk. The problem is that most smart people believe that there will be another correction to equity shortly, so they can come back in and wet, lather, rince and repeat...ad nauseam
If you buy Treasury bonds with electronic digits you just created out of thin air, who cares if you lose money or not?
+infinity
After the POTUS SOTU yesterday, and this today....is there REALLY any question on who really runs the country?
I call BS on that, inflation on what ??? fact is if you were not in fiat and in equities or real estate in the last 5 years you ve been destroyed. Japan had interest rates at 0% with no inflation for more thant 30 years so what do you say on that? By your measure their bond should be worth nothing and yet it's strong
What a clueless idiot you are.
It is PRECISELY those holding such "investments" who have seen their REAL net worth diminished in the last five years. And clearly, you have never heard of gold, silver, commodities or other hard assets, all of which are UP not just in nominal but in real terms over the same period.
It has only been a bit over 20 years for Japan's ZIRP, and any Japanese with two brain cells to rub together would punch you in the face if you claimed that they have experienced "no inflation" in those 20+ years, as their cost of living has steadily risen in spite of ZIRP (or because of it).
He's got a point if you can eat flat screen TVs.
No inflation there.... Real estate? No inflation. Maybe you can grow your own medicinal herbs.
Food? Fuel? Healthcare? Bring your fiat in abundance.
Who can really believe we aren't witnessing inflation in essentials?
both of you are miserable lemmings. If you have 10M$ what are your fucking possibilities? REAL ESTATE, EQUITIES OR BONDS (financial securities) OR CASH/TREASUIRIES. What the fuck does a hedge fund manager care about medicinal herbs or screen TVs, they are just having fun, fucking lemming food that is.
Gold.
Platinum.
Palladium.
Just for three possibilities, ALL of which can easily be held in one's own personal possession.
"OH NO! We can't have people holding their savings and wealth in their OWN hands! That would be .... criminal! Unpatriotic! FINANCIAL TERRORISM!!!"
They had negative growth almost the entire time, do you understand what it means ?
And do YOU understand that the Japanese cost of living steadily ROSE since 1989 (and their savings have been steadily eroded), despite your putative (and misdefined) Japanese "deflation"?
@BH
A kindly clue - never post to ZH after 3 hits from the bong or 4 shots of vodka - its kinda embarrassing the next day when you review your up/down arrows.
The reason is simple. Where else would you put your money? Bank of Sealy, you lose even more. Equities, yeah, right. Metals, well some for sure, but not your whole nest egg.
People settle for these yields because there is no where else to go where the risk/reward ratio holds up.
Your assuming there is a "real" market out there buying. The Fed is buying them from say, oh, the Caymen Islands?
Why does this guy Gross complain about the results that he asks for? He says we need it and then complains that we got it.
Yes. All that and more...
i aint even trippin....
Got "my precious" stacked and tucked away...
bitch ass bankers!!!!
let's get it on..............
His head is big but seems mostly empty
Time to beef up your equity and commodity businesses, Billy Boy. Whats that, you're doing that already ? How prescient.
Bad Billy is spot-on.
John Williams at Shadowstats.com shows inflation to be running about 6%. If you hold bonds at 2% return, you are getting swiped 4% at least.
Not if you refuse to think about it.
*LA LA LA LA*
I can't hear you!
non sense...we will make it up on volume !!!! These guys are smart.
where is that sarcasm button Tyler was going to add last year?
Financial repression = Once you get a taste for raping savers & the elderly, you just can't stop!!!
barliman
What they all end up lusting for is blood.
They send you to die, so their wealth is not diminished. Fair enough?
is this chronic monetary diarrhea..? followed by monetary inquisition and/or constipation...?
I wonder how long before China finally says fuck you and dumps this shit paper.
It's my understanding that China and Russia are already doing that.
They are in small chunks. I'm talking about the big monster dump.
Isn't that just a function of the clock? Last I heard, the avg. duration of their holdings is under 3 years.
So, all they have to do is to demand payment at maturity.
CTRL+P
CTRL+P
CTRL+P...
Must be difficult for the Chinese to pick their poison. EUR? Axiety there. Gold? Into deflation (and since it can't be subjected to an FDR-style repricing) might be worrysome short term. Trade relationships? Any path the Chinese pick is going to hurt those. Hard landing? China will have to hold a fire sale. Or no?
The monster dump will be initiated in concert with a full naval blockade and coordinated EM pulse scrubbing of Taiwan.
The U.S. would be completely unprepared for this package.
When they are told that it is ok. to dump.
Just what we needed- twitter posts from Bill Gross.
"... Lie Ahead" should probably read "... And More Lies Ahead"
I was assuming that's what the ellipses are for.
keep lining up at the Promise Trough for that imaginary qe3 slop. its not happening. only promises, promises.......................boy, talk about hopium..............
Excuse me, Chairman Dickweasel, why do we continue to punish savers in this country who are searching for yield on their hard earned savings?
Chairman Dickweasel- "When I was blowing Jamie and Lloyd they said fuck the savers" "I just follow orders"
first off, he is not punishing all savers. those that are on a limited budget and are in the process of saving food, medicine, ammo, hard cash, etc are quite pleased that the Chairman is staving off the inevitable a bit longer until ones savings is complete.
There's already so much liquidity in the system - when does it choke the equity market?
how do you choke that which is already dead?
I'm greedy. 1,300 isn't dead enough for me. 950...now that's circling the drain.
I've been watching the market every single day it's been 3 years. The higher it goes just on hope of free money, the lower it drops when panic sets in. 950 looks very attainable very soon.
1300 is just the formaldehyde and make up on the corpse. there is no heart beat, no air flowing through those lungs. volume doesnt exist....................
I've now officially baptised Quantitative Easing as COCAINATED EASING.
"it's a helluva drug"
LMFAO...How fucking more gay can this get (or 'gayer'...not sure)?!
What a god damn joke this has become.
Oh yea, the SPX is up 8 handles and they'll gas the shit out of it in the last 30 mins....you know, just for the shits and giggles effect.
Definition of 'Financial Repression'
A term that describes measures by which governments channel funds to themselves as a form of debt reduction. This concept was introduced in 1973 by Stanford economists Edward S. Shaw and Ronald I. McKinnon. Financial repression can include such measures as directed lending to the government, caps on interest rates, regulation of capital movement between countries and a tighter association between government and banks. The term was initially used in response to the emerging market financial systems during the 1960s, '70s and '80s.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/financial-repression.asp#ixzz1kVAGF3NO
Ah...yes, a glorious daisy chain.
Bernanke's term is over in January...
Thank the Good Lord for hope that if OB loses Chairsatan Bernanke will be shown the door to his cell. Otherswise the world as we have known it will get the final and no return bullet
Because Rommney, Gingrich, or Santorum would appoint Ron Paul to head the Fed, right?
JFC. It's not Bernanke - he's just a bag-man. It's that the entire system is run for the benefit of a corrupt elite by a bunch of lacky/whores. And there's no shortage of them to fill in the appropriate spot, apparently.
Cheap & endless money.
When that combination fails, what then..??
Isn't that how we got to this point in time after the dot com bust..??
QE3+4+5 = EOTWAWKI
The Fed will not telegraph such a reality. They'll slip it in under the radar like monetary ninja.
But the world will end nonetheless for all that stealth.
And you read it right here are ZH
But the US will finally achieve income equality... like in NKorea:)
Face it folks...listening to Obamas speech last night...no cuts there....and with the Feds announcement today...its print print print....China and Russia know it...so does Asia and South America......so do the politicians who are just licking thier lips at all that new cash they can dispense...this next election is very very important...the spenders know it..and the cutters know it too....it is two differernt paths that we have in front of us...its our choice....unfortunatly the person that gives out the most money will win this one as our populace is not that smart to see the big picture....sad but true
Financial repression won't make a bit of difference if we keep running up $1.5B deficits annually, and Bernanke knows it. That is why he is effectively monetizing the national debt.
Inflation/deflation/hyperinflation, who knows? The guaranteed outcome is lower standards of living, regardless of the unit of measure.
"Financial repression won't make a bit of difference if we keep running up $1.5B deficits annually, and Bernanke knows it."
You wish it was $1.5 B...
I heard bonds paid out about 20% last year. Were those 1 year bonds 10 year bonds 30 year bonds?? Also someone explain to me this, if you are holding a 30 year bond for the year and it pays out 3% are you making 3% for the year or the month or what?
The yield (interest payment) is given annually. But that 20% figure was probably based on the change in the bond price (bond prices go up when interest rates go down). Not sure if +20% would've been 10 or 30 year bonds, but maybe someone else knows.
Memory says 30 yr paid 28.8 total return, 10 yr paid 9.8 total return.
I think it's important to note that 'financial repression' is just repression. Ron Paul says there is no 'types' of liberty, just liberty.
40% Dollar devaluation this year!
"Presented (almost) without comment:" ;-)
Bernie to Gross: U MAD BRO?
ZH,
Please investigate a disproportionate buying of z14 Eurodollar options and futures for the 2 months, but specifically the last 2 weeks. Massive buying of z4, massive selling of z3z4 spreads and massive selling of z3z4z5 flies leads me to imagine that this unprecedented position was both perfectly timed and completely indiscrete, once the fed made an announcement to dissuade a rate hike til z2014. The timing of the initiative and sequential call from Big Ben was too specific for this to have been pure coincidence. There's a leak at the fed.
If you read the small-print on the UST it states that you can only sell them if the Treasury allows it (similar to the US being able to suspend human rights, voting, due-process et al. whenever they like).
So China is not "selling" per se, but rather they are not rolling over holdings as they come to term. Sure would like to see the breakdown (oops, Freudian there) of the holdings by-year so we know the total-holdings drops according to the calendar. Anyone know where I can find that out?
Nipponization, bitchez! Been enjoying the fruits of my macro strat, and it looks like there will be no changes this year. Looking forward to being a landlord in a wasteland.
Stock Market Trends 2012 QE3 Short Interest & Upside Volatility http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHWYie3Kk1o