Bill Gross Gets It
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05/25/2012 - 20:58
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05/25/2012 - 09:00
Live Audio Commentary From RanSquawk:
05-25 16:21: US EQUITY WRAP
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Neo Feudalism bitchez
http://www.larryobrien.net/super-grid/
we already have neofeudalism...it is called strong socialism.
It enshrines a political class and their offspring in positions of power. Even Ron Paul's kid is in Congress.
+1
no that's not socialism; its royalism, mixing metaphors. Socialism is when the bottom layers of society use state to act like the upper class; not when the elites act like they own it.
Use the right paint when you paint.
Has anyone bothered checking with the Greek people themselves if they 'get it'? I don't know why but Iceland comes to mind.
Iceland opted OUt right from day 1.
The Greek people WANT to stay in Eurozone, they have said it, but they don't want the austerity. So if Eurozone now says NIET, then its goodbye Greece.
Subordinates..
Another term for "sloppy seconds"?
Ya understand, but like Iceland at first I don't think the real Greek pitchfork and torches have come out yet.
Please do not stand up until the Gravy Train has come to a complete stop and the biscuit wheels have fallen off...
Nah, socialism is when the ruling class convinces the lower class that stealing from the middle and upper classes is just. This is accomplished by telling the lower class that the plunder is going to them, when it's really going to the ruling class.
that's not socialism that is totalitarian, soviet style, or monarchial, if its absolutist. There is no trickle down to bottom. So no socialism.
Social democracy is real socialism; you see it in Sweden etc. : High taxes, high entitlements and small spreads between rich and poor. And it works in stable fashion, not a scam. Its a market economy with high regulation and wealth distribution.
A scam is a scam, whatever you call it : totalitarian state like N. Korea/Russia today or private Oligarchy run like in USA (FED/WS).
...and the only successful "socialist" societies are homogenious ones. People helping their own tribe. And even then its not easy to perpetuate. Like Maggie said -- soon or later, they run out of other peoples money...
Even here, history has to be replayed.
So you're saying Sweden is the shining example of working socialism?
I'm defining my perception of the word "socialism" via a contemporary example, given the prevalent knee jerk usage at ZH to describe all and sundry, mostly derogatory; which is fine by me as value judgement, if its used correctly when defining a social system of nation state.
I did not talk about an ideal society, and as far as shining societies are concerned the Scandavian model gets more greenies in world forums than the USA does; or Germany, France and UK.
Don't read into what I say. The onus is on the use of word "socialism". Elitist private enterprise run social aggregates that privatise profits and socialise debt are NOT socialist examples, far from it. That's the point I made on this thread.
Maybe I misread your statement - were you trying to say
"Social democracy is realLY socialism"?
Nope, I was saying it was closer to a socialist construct than USA. This whole thread started off when someone said : US banksta/Congress elites are making the country socialist. They are not.
Oh, well it's not the banksta/Congress elites directly, but overall groups of people are making the US socialist.
The elites wouldn't prefer that approach, but they accept it as a different way to keep the proles numb. In a kind of stable way for some time, yes.
I can tell socialism, I grew up mostly in Europe - not Sweden though.
I couldn't believe how far the do-gooders have made this country go down that path, when moving back here a few years ago.
You might want to look at transfer payments as % of federal budget (or of GDP) as a measure of socialism.
A small spread between (ruling) elite and poor is not a sign of socialism, but of egalitarian societies. Those can only exist if most people don't feel the urge to improve their lifestyle anymore.
Use the right paint when you paint
Then call it what it really is FASCISM.
Bill Gross is one of the only mainstream champions left. He has been spot on, even if he was a little early. I would rather be too early, than too late.
http://ericsprott.blogspot.com/
He's in the Senate
The Senate is part of Congress.
@ bindar
That's an interesting article, thanks for sharing the link.
Fringe Blogger Bearing mentions how the game of "Screw the Bondholders" has now gone to Europe (in his review of this weekend's Barron's), we saw a nice case of it here with GM. I put up my latest piece "Review of Barron's, Dated 20 February" last night. I include my take of the Hugh Hendry interview as well as Tatyana Shumway's piece on tungsten. Curious? Gmail me at my name (and promise you will behave!) for the link or just go look for it yourself via Google.
That would be great, if it were technologically achievable.
It is not.
Putting nuclear plants undergrund, I presume deep underground, does not automatically solve all containment problems (see Fukushima Cs seemingly seeping into the soil and groundwater) but creates now ones like tunnel collapse or water ingress, and especially cooling!
Also you can't take a 2 GW nuclear power plant design and upscale it to a 200 GW reactor - there are technological and material limits in the way.
So the number of 50 reactors being sufficient is a joke.
Also long-distance superconducting transmission is not feasible nor makes it economic sense as of today.
They should charge these fuckers with a FUI...financing under the influence!
Techno servitude...
This was ECB's hailmary pass to stop the craziness and it won't last. We still haven't heard about the debt holders who will say okay for the 50 percent cut or more on their bonds and still not be considered a credit event. And then they turn around and do this hailmary of swapping their debt with new debt and essentially saying that our debt is better than yours and that doesn't make sense.
Dah.
Thats rich - a front runner complaining about subordinators
He's down river from the human sacrifices and finally learned how to make soap.
You only use the blubber.
He had been rolling bones like Yatzee and letting the tea leaves blow in the wind while he did yoga for the years leading up to the collapse. Dude was too high on opium topped bong rips the whole run up to the Fall of '08 and now he is whining like a baby about low rates when he should have seen it coming. He should have known to bought gold years ago. He should quit his whinning and move to Bali and become a yogi if he has suh a problem with the market. You don't see me bitching, I just tell people to buy stocks because the worth of fiat is devaluing rapidly, unless of course they have a pair and want to hold their own wealth.
@Mr Lennon Hendrix
Congratulations. You have put together the most "mixed metaphors" I have ever seen in my life. (Technically there are some similes, but whatever).
True but, more importantly, who will be supplying the bids for sovereign debt in the future?
Additionally, if ISDA fails to declare "default", thus making CDS a complete waste of time and money, the bid for the distressed debt of Italy, Spain et al completely dries up.
No bid = no market
Things are about to begin moving very quickly.
who needs a market when the only buyers are banks who get all their money from ltro? that and the blackrock guys since they are now competing with warren buffet for all the inside looks from the government
Who needs a market? Um, everybody not on the inside, which makes up 99.9% of the population.
Not yet, but nearly so...
Hello? How old is the sovereign bonds market? CDSs have for all purpuses entangled the banking systems in the 5 minutes since they exist. They belong to the dumpster of history. They ought to be illegal "for reasons of logic".
Excellent Observation Turd!
Indeed. Mr. Ferguson is a gem. + 1
what things will begin to move more quickly? Will they attempt to usher in the NWO now?
NWO is DOA.
Not saying that some don't have designs and aspirations, just that its probability is very low given that there are insufficient resources available to put and keep it in place. Increased control requires MORE energy (to offset entropy).
It is, however, possible that it could exist for a short period of time; but, there's ZERO probability that it could become the permanent state of governance: ALL BAD SYSTEMS FAIL, AND, BIG SYSTEMS FAIL IN BIG WAYS (BIG = FAIL!).
+1
Thanks Turd that is interesting. Rookie question, are you saying there is a bid only because there is insurance on default? It seems counterintuitive to buy sov. bonds only in anticipation of default, what is the end game who pays?
I don't know if anybody missed the long term treasury bond auction results Feb. 8. Its looking as if long term treasuries are on the chopping block, while short term paper will be overbid.
I think the verbosity on explaining why being owed money by a sovereign affords NO "recovery" protection is absurd. Between Durden and the other analysis, how many words can they waste?
SO WHAT if the ECB "crams" anyone down? The yesteryear outcome was that the sovereign just told you to GFY. There is no court to which you can go to get a sheriff to repo a car from a sovereign.
If Greece defaults, news flash: you own their debt, you don't get paid.
The subtle irony in the market is that the ECB can still lower short term interest rates once all the paper shuffling is done.
+ 1 to trav7777
They (our .gov) got away with it with GM, so why won't the Greeks screw their bondholders? Where's the downside?
DoChen,
so why won't the Greeks screw their bondholders? Where's the downside?
There is none, and I personally think that has been their Con game all along.
"If Greece defaults, news flash: you own their debt, you don't get paid."
Can't get blood out of a rock.
Further, negotiations are with the EXISTING govt, a govt which, if it presses its jackboot down too hard, risks being completely toppled. Who, then, would the debt holders deal with?
Problem IS the debt holders'. Lenders fucked up and now they've got to eat it. It'll be interesting to see how this ripples back through the rest of the Global System...
Welcome to the new world, a world of "economies of scale in reverse." Didn't think that that infinite growth on a finite planet thing was going to work did ya?...
You put forth a good argument supporting the idea that only other sovereigns should be lending to each other, along with having a large army to collect the debt(s), in the event that a sovereign decides to withhold payment(s)...
Trav do you have a job? You seem to spend a lot of time and spew an awful lot of Verbose on this site!
Think of a CDS as a put option on a risky, speculative stock you purchase.
You'd like to take the risk of buying the stock because you see upside. However, since there is a possibility that the stock will go to zero, you buy a put in order to minimize your downside risk.
Now, consider this again without the put...or...puts are available for you to purchase but it's highly unlikely that you'll ever be able to exercise it if you need to. Without the "insurance" against excessive loss, would you buy the stock? Probably not.
So, without CDS, the amount of buyers willing to risk actual money in distressed sovereign debt decreases dramatcially. Less buyers + more sellers = big drop in price.
Thanks Turd.. However in this case the greater point is that no entitiy can afford to back the put is is an illusion. Not only that but it will not be put to the test..
the ISDA will be beset with pitfork holders...
So do people go to cash, implicitly trusting the government once again, or do they go to real money without counterparty risk? I'm down for the phyzz, but who else is considering it? A bond is fiat is something with value that can be changed again and again and again...
given that no one really intends to pay out on a CDS I'd rather get a put contract on something I think will pay, and if I can, highly corelate my selection of underlying to something moving with the bonds or the metals or energy, that way I can be fairly sure when the big move is coming. That way not only will I see a larger move in the underlying if I can find a good multiplier, but I can get that Put in and perhaps even a Strangle to handle the magic-man's magical bean-stocks that are pushing up the markets when they ought not to be :D
Is this why Krugman is hoping aliens land; to buy our debt?
WTF? you got a Red Arrow for This? I'll even it out and give you a Green!
And perhaps Sanitarium's economic policy is for "God" to come down and buy our debt?
Clowns to the left of me jokers to the right...
"I got a feeling (more like a certainty!) that something ain't right."
Add my green to you two above.
You, like so many others, are forgetting the Lesson of 2011.
Governments will do ANYTHING to keep the wheels turning.
Bids for debt are going dry? No problem. You call private money sources and inform them that they will be bidding tomorrow or they will lose their business licenses. In the US, Primary Dealers are REQUIRED to bid at Treasury auctions. If they bid too low, they would also get a phone call.
" You call private money sources and inform them that they will be bidding tomorrow or they will lose their business licenses."
BUT... this only has a limited shelf life.
Removing all that capital from businesses will only expedite the collapse.
YOU CANNOT SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF HAVING A DEEP HOLE BY DIGGING ANOTHER ONE TO USE ITS CONTENTS AS FILL!
It's circular! And, any such activity will only consume/waste precious energy to boot!
It's like this, the money that we're using is WORTHLESS. HOW MUCH WORTHLESS MONEY DOES IT TAKE TO BUY GROWTH?
The era of fractional banking and fiat money is finished. Mother Nature doesn't falsify her books; from this point on the REAL costs will be borne...
...and the multiplier effect only works in expanding economies, not contracting ones. So, applied correctly in Africa, South America or Asia -- it will return multiple units of value. But in the US or Europe every dollar of debt spent will return less than a dollar of growth. And the beat goes on...
This era is ending - still slowly. And when it ends, it might be exchanged - depending from the circumstances, by something similar.
Fiat and fractional banking are powerful stuff, can't have low taxes on one side AND lots of military spending, great social projects and plentiful political pork barrels on the other side without them.
This era is ending - still slowly. And when it ends, it might be exchanged - depending from the circumstances, by something similar.
We could be so lucky to get a reset, our future is being set up as it unwinds,everyone and their dog(in gub,and civil authorities) is armed to the teeth,and getting the latest and best spying devices and urban warfare gear, and everyone to a Catholic Nun is a terrorist........................according to the PTB.
We are under seige,and 95% of Americans are clueless.
.
"'Tis death to counterfeit" ain't a Human Law, it's a natural one. Mother Nature is tired of taking wooden nickels for REAL things...
True but, more importantly, who will be supplying the bids for sovereign debt in the future?
Just a guess, but, the ECB and the Fed, through various and assorted back channels? Like what's going on now?
True. But the all others group just went to zero and that is problematic no matter how big of a farce this is already.
If there ain't settlement/payment on the CDS products when there's a 70% (or more) haircut; whose gonna buy anymore of them things???
Look back at the earnings reports of the Big Earners: Their Income came from sale of CDS and other derivative products; most of their income anyways...
Just isn't no way around this one, unless the intent was all along to collect all the marbles and then just fold the game...
They will do the LTRO thing again. They will do it for 5 years. Maybe longer. The banks will buy the Italian debt with it etc. That will postpone armageddon for another 5 years. Successful can kick.
Additionally, if ISDA fails to declare "default", thus making CDS a complete waste of time and money, the bid for the distressed debt of Italy, Spain et al completely dries up.
Methinks ECB balance sheet is about to get VERY large.
And yes it trashes the Euro and yes it makes USD stronger in comparison and yes it's not what Bernokio wants ...and yes nobody gives a fuck.
Germany got those DM's all printed up and ready?
Hope so.
Even I got it, once TD explained it; but theory and practice are two different things. Lets see how the ECB force the Greeks to unwind into "controlled" default w/o causing a major CDS pay-off OR a bond yield hike across Eurozone OR a collapse of CDS derivative markets in USA; all 38 T of it, mostly unregulated OTC.
If they achieve that in the crucial March to July 2012 window, we can breathe for another year in Euroland and across on other side of pond; until after US elections; I guess...
The govts there can't resolve this, I doubt that govts + businesses will be able to. That is, I don't see any way there can be an agreement that would be acceptable to all that would allow for any "controlled" write-off.
One could say that the US has little exposure, and while this might be true based on looking at the books, there's still the issue of trade going forward. Europe is going to be contracting harder when all is said and done with this Greek event, and this will ripple back to US businesses in the form of dramatically reduced trade, which then crams down tax revenues to the US govt (which will also be struggling to find buyers of its debt).
Unlike the US and Lehman, this one won't be able to be handled in a back room, no closet for this skeleton...
All these so-called Euro-Leaders are turning out their pockets, only to find a few coins and lint -- can't you find it in yer heart to lend'em a few Billion Euros/FRNs?
"Dreams Come Due, Government and Economics as if Freedom Mattered", ISBN: 0-671-61159-3, by John Galt
The book is dated, but many of the things it talks about are still valid today.
Following up on issues Tyler and Peter Tchir have raised ... how much cash (not pledges) does EFSF have at its disposal right now?
What are EFSF's realistic prospects of raising tens of billions of euros -- either from national treasuries or bond auctions -- in a few short weeks?
When push comes to shove, it would seem that the only way to raise that kind of money in a hurry is to PRINT it. A Ponzi deal between ECB and EFSF could create the necessary credit for the Greek bailout out of thin air.
If not, then Plan D comes into effect.
Serious question: if bailout and default are the binary choices, what is the probability associated with each one? Is there a betting pool or a market proxy which would indicate the odds?
It's spectacular how the ECB has managed to transform itself into the kiss of death when it comes to EZ Sovereign Bonds: now that they've shown that when push comes to shove and a sovereign problem becomes a crisis they will do whatever it takes to make every other bondholder subordinate to themselves, them buying any EZ sovereign bonds, will just make said bonds unappealing to everybody else (since their ownership of any bonds of an EZ sovereign has now been shown to increase risk for other bondholders).
How do you get to be a decision maker in the ECB, is it some kind of prize that you get from a cereal box or do you have to pass some kind of test to show you're one of the selected few humans whose incapable of conceiving anything beyond first order consequences of his/her actions?
@Acet
Good summary, but what is more interesting is the question as to why it takes THIS move to make EZ Sovereign bonds unattractive to some. The monetarist/central banker Kool Aid has been potent.
Blowing Vampires is priced in
It's more of a Skull 'n Bones thing.
They tap you on the shoulder. In the initiation, you administer a blowjob to a banker lying in a coffin.
After that, it's easy. Just follow their instructions. Anybody could do it. But few are chosen.
Waitaminute... I thought one of the conditions of vampirism is you can't get a boner?
Not sure that this is any different from what the Fed does/can do.
The ECB is, by the Power of LTRO, subordinating a tranche of the banking system into a symbiotic relationship, same as the FED with their current bunch of PD-MegaBanks.
As long as they keep behaving like two sisters, all "fine". If one breaks alone, things get seriously interesting...
It is important to enslave people if you are to rule them; otherwise, they think they are free to do as they please. Debt is an excellent tool to subjugate the masses. It is better than drugs and religion.
Debt, drugs and religion. Bingo. You forgot TV.
For many, TV plays the religion role.
edit: Actually, TV plays a role in all three.
Welcome to the (real) MATRIX. Just like 9/11 was the pretext to install all kind of laws that were in contradiction to the constitution, the financial crisis, including Greece, is used to further change the political landscape, all without any voting (god forbid). Just look at the current Italian and Greek parliaments. Exactly who is in charge now? Well, ex-Goldman goons. Elected? Of course not. IT IS A FULL FLEDGED COUP D'ETAT MY FRIENDS.
I'm waiting for the first non-elected ex-Goldman goon to become "President" here.
Any ex-Goldman Goons gonna run for VP this fall?
If so, whoever is Prez could suffer an untimely demise.
Well, for that to happen they will first need to orchestrate a 'crisis' of some kind which the government will then 'act swiftly upon' (to use prez O's favorite expression). Of course, this is the oldest trick in the book, but has been working since ancient times.