Bill Gross' Latest Monthly Thoughts: "Pennies From Heaven" Or Can You Solve Debt With More Debt?

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Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:19 | 1828009 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Bill no longer friends with the gov't

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:26 | 1828020 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

not after he shorted the bond markets to no avail. and even if his timing was off, he was, in essence, correct. bonds will crap out hard in due time. 

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:22 | 1828127 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Isn't he long now?

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:09 | 1828090 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

does our dear friend bill, have massive amounts of physical gold and silver stashed away in his huge mansion built and paid for mind you, with the filthy lucre he derived from his "investment advice" for the  many baby boomer bond holders who he "helps"  during the years of plenty. this pig makes me sick. hang his balding ass with the rest of them..........

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:21 | 1828277 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

So, where was Bill while all this was building?   Now that the turds are being impacted by various blades, he is so insightful of past events.   Wake me when he predicts the next 10 years.

Yawn.....

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:19 | 1828011 paarsons
paarsons's picture

Good Citizens of Metropolis!

Here's my advice!

The sky is falling, and we must run to the hills.

http://fucklloydblankfein.blogspot.com

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:21 | 1828013 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

this one NAILED the current RALLY :::---

 

http://slopeofhope.com/2011/10/interesting-spytlt-ratio.html

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:21 | 1828014 Eurodollar
Eurodollar's picture

Does anyone have a set of charts or links to charts showing real for the G20 gdp adjusted down for debt driven consumption? If so I would be very happy to have them :)

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:15 | 1828106 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

speaking of g20. we are now in world governance and have been since 2009 , according to the president of the european council, mr. herman van rompuy....

We are living through exceptionally difficult times. Financial crisis and its dramatic impact on employment and budgets, the climate crisis which threatens our very survival — a period of anxiety, uncertainty, and lack of confidence. Yet these problems can be overcome, by a joint effort, in and between our countries. 2009 is also the first year of Global Governance with the establishment of the G-20 in the middle of financial crisis. The climate conference in Copenhagen is another step towards the Global Management of our Planet. Our mission, our presidency is one of hope, supported by acts, and by deeds.’ (press conference November 19, 2009)

http://youtube.com/watch?v=QEqFtVrAgSo

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 11:12 | 1828549 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

So is China's dissent for real or just a proxy for other interests (theater)?  We really haven't heard dick about the whole carbon credits/global environmental control since they told everyone to piss off.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:26 | 1828019 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Hyman Minsky already answered this question with a resounding no, but Larry Summers and a bunch of other Keynesian asshat economists didn't get the memo.  Keynes used to mock critics that "In the long run, we are all dead."   The long run is here and Mr. Minsky is knocking at the door with a fully load automatic.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:34 | 1828037 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Solution: i)don't open the door. ii) Hope Minsky goes away.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:17 | 1828112 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

that will only work for maybe another year tops...

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:22 | 1828134 LawsofPhysics
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Shoot Minsky from the roof or pay him in Gold to protect your ass.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:27 | 1828022 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Only when the last Bear surrenders will the most magical of all markets kneel to the truth...In other words..Not yet..

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:33 | 1828038 woolybear1
woolybear1's picture

he could have said that in two paragraphs

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:37 | 1828043 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

He could have said all that in two words:

Gold, bitchez!

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:38 | 1828047 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Yeah, but atleast he admittted it. "One should not stray too far, " is the opening statement of the 12th+ paragraph.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:37 | 1828042 BadKiTTy
BadKiTTy's picture

........aaaaaand it's gone!
As much as we want to cling to old ideas (8% return on investments) there is simply a new realty we must adjust to. We go mad all at once but only regain our sanity one at a time. Denial, anger, bargaining........ We are still on the boundry of denial and anger.
I have watched my business contract 50% from the 2007 high, and this year expect a further hit. Expenses slashed to the bone so nowhere to go there ( profitability up last 2 years but under pressure now).
Smaller but more sane expectations rule the day for me now. Family, friends, health, the stuff you can't buy but is the only thing of value.

K@

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:30 | 1828155 LawsofPhysics
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Amen.  I will only add that I have seem business increase a bit, but that is only because of contracts we still have going that were made prior to 2008.  For example, we are sending more and more of our soybeanns and cotton overseas.  We also do some contract work for agriculture-centered biotechs.

The big thing that has crushed my margins is energy.  Diesel fuel and the electricity for an number things (chicken houses, dairy cooling, etc.) has gone way up.  Over 100% for the electric bills.  Unfortunately, no solar-power tractors.  Not yet anyway.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 11:31 | 1828617 vato poco
vato poco's picture

Poppycock. Oh sure, family, friends & health are nice, don't get me wrong. But they're hardly the "only things of value". Just off the top of my head, I can think of hookers and blow and fancy spinning rims on the Corolla (or "fuckmobile", in street parlance) that folks want bad, and will pay big bucks for. Ergo: value. Just because you can't buy happiness doesn't mean you can't lease it. Who would you rather spend the holidays with? Your unemployed overall-wearing dirtbag tweaker brother-in-law and his thieving white-trash reform-school devilspawn, ("their mama done r-u-n-n-d  o-f-f.")("I was wonderin' if'n you'd co-sign a note for a used mobile home, in the sperret of Christmas?"), or a cheerful, stunning 22-year-old stripper? Knowing damn well the stripper will cost you less in the end, & she won't ever ask you to bail her out on a meth-cookin' charge? If for no other reason than she don't know your real name?

I think what Gross is trying to say here is, 'When life sends you lemons, break out the Stoli and whip up some vodka lemonade.' Like in The Bible.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:38 | 1828044 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

Gross is schizophrenic. Everytime I see him on TV he is advocating more short term spending, additional stumulus and not cutting spending in the short term. Then he writes these colums and calls bullshit...on everything he seems to be advocating.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:46 | 1828060 El Viejo
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Everyone is an investment genius during a bull market.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:22 | 1828129 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

its not going to work. everyone has seen his act and we know him. the men shall arrive soon at his doorstep to take him away for just trial and sentencing... no mea culpas will be allowed....

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:39 | 1828048 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

Writing a story about pennies strikes me as about as pointless as saving them instead of throwing them into the street.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:08 | 1828087 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Maybe Bill is Freudently slipping to us that he imagines a cup with pencils and pennies in the future.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:24 | 1828138 High Plains Drifter
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yeh maybe in his future if he is lucky, the asshole.....

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:42 | 1828052 ian807
ian807's picture

Seems to be creating growth in India and China. Just not in the countries where it's employed.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:42 | 1828053 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Can you solve...?

Only if the payments are less and not more.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:52 | 1828065 MFL8240
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Interesting article coming from an insider!  Shouldnt matter to you Bill because no matter what the rest of us do, you have the contacts to always remain a few steps ahead of the Fed and make money on what they will do.  That is one of the benifits you have as an insider, we dont have that same benifit we must rely on what pile of shit they dish us each day.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:08 | 1828088 LawsofPhysics
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My take is that Bill is getting kicked to the curb because he keeps pointing out the obvious moral hazards and fraud and because he simply doesn't want to play along anymore.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:08 | 1828237 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Buy his fund if you think he has "special" knowledge.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 08:54 | 1828066 xcehn
xcehn's picture

The establishment is demanding a miraculous recovery. The global economy will soon have its rude answer.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:10 | 1828092 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What will the establishment do when they realize all theyve done is bankrupted the producers, till their penthouse patios for tomatoes? These people are fuked.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:03 | 1828075 Old. No. 7
Old. No. 7's picture

Pennies aren't copper. One would think Mr. Gross knows that.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:25 | 1828141 LawsofPhysics
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Since Bill seems to be picking up pennies in front of a steam roller, I think he may have forgoten.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:01 | 1828218 junkyardjack
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They wouldn't be on the floor if they were

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:07 | 1828083 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Perhaps all these paper-pushing fucknuts should be asking themselves whether or not infinite growth on a finite world is possible or not.

 

Fucking idiots, the paper bonfire gets larger everyday.  Fine, crash the fucking system so we can find out exactly what the value of everyone's labor is.  Fucking morons.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:07 | 1828084 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Good article by Pimco. We fit that bill. Older, still have a little disposable income and we are Not spending. No debt except a mortgage that we pay down every month and very cautious. Don't see us changing that for years. So we do not help growth in most any retail mall, unless you own a gun or gold shop.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:09 | 1828091 midgetrannyporn
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...portfolios should avoid longer dated issues where inflation premiums dominate performance.

translated: price volatility kicked my ass in 2011 bitchez!

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:16 | 1828109 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

I wouldn't trust a word this guy says.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:36 | 1828165 GCT
GCT's picture

Actually whatever we think of Bill Gross this article is spot on for a change.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:07 | 1828230 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Yes, good article. Bill Gross stating the obvious -- that you can't pay off the debt by creating more debt. They all made money off the illusion and lies for decades, and now the mea culpa from Billionaire's Row in Newport Beach when they're old and ready to die.  Too little, too late.

 

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:44 | 1828181 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Would those be the zinc-alloy pennies, or the .950 copper pre-'82 pennies, Mr. Gross ? 

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:47 | 1828186 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

What a way to run a railroad.

Who is John Galt?

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:50 | 1828198 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

...sequential QEs with a twist.

I know what sequential means, I know what a twist is...but what the hell kind of liquor does one put in a QE?

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:00 | 1828216 gwar5
gwar5's picture

You know it's all a con game and civilization is doomed when a Harvard economist like Rogoff has finally "figured out" for us that you can't cure debt with more debt, and his Princeton PhD economist counterpart with the Nobel prize still bangs spoons on his high chair insisting that you can.

Every person with an eigth grade education could answer the above and has a better grasp of things than our cargo culting central planners. 

Example A:  "The more we spend, the richer we are! Yes, really!" -- Joe Biden, 2009


 

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 11:01 | 1828513 Cat On A Ledge
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And we are due for the mother of all mean reversions when the central planners finally realize their methods to defeat this simplest of methemaical concepts, have failed.

Methinks there's nothing mythical about mathematical!

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 11:38 | 1828641 Dr. Nancy
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All that's happening is predictable, as there are 7 stages that any major economy goes through. Those who know how it works profit & massive wealth is transferred to them. You can see what one millionaire has to say about the 7 stages countries go through & how you can profit like the ultra-rich during these tough times.

His free video

"How To Create Incredible Wealth in Today's Economic Crisis"

is at:

http://theelevationgroup.net/presentation/register.php?a_aid=160667&a_bi...

Hope this info helps everyone as much as it has me.

Dr. Nancy

 

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 12:01 | 1828713 cranky-old-geezer
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Contrary to opinions of many here on ZH, these people aren't stupid at all. Their ridiculous projections of economic recovery and growth are a cover story for what's really happening:

a) massive looting of the people, and

b) preserving the value of existing debt paper.

If someone has maxed out their credit cards, the only reason to extend more credit is prevent them from defaulting and bankrupting, in order to preserve the value of the debt on banks' books and avoid having to write it off as a loss.

Every action since '08 has been done to avoid default and preserve the value of debt on banks' books. Loaning more money to insolvent governments is done prevent sovereign default and preserve the value of sovereign debt on banks' books.

How long can they keep doing it? As long as central banks can print currency.

Yes, they're steadily debasing those currencies along the way. Steadily stealing wealth from people using those currencies, which is the real goal of TARP and stimulus and LSAP and QE and other currency printing measures. Transferring wealth from the people to the banking sector.

But it only works when the value of debt paper held by banks is preserved, meaning more currency has to be printed and loaned to debtors to prevent default. This is what's happening in Greece and other PIIGS nations. This is what's happening in America.

If all the debtors suddenly declared force majure and defaulted, all that debt paper on banks' books would suddenly be worthless, instantly transferring that wealth from banks to debtors because banks no longer have a claim on it.

All that printed currency stays in circulation. It's never recovered and removed from circulation.

Debtors are the winners and banks are the losers.

The people at large never get their wealth back.

This is the Achilles heel of a debt-based paper currency system.   Banks benefit only as long as debtors don't default.

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