This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Birinyi's Ruler Predicts The End Of The Stock Market: Trading Volume To Hit Zero By Year End
Presented with little comment, if only to add that at the current rate of degradation in NYSE total trading volume - from post US downgrade to now, Birinyi's Ruler implies volume will entirely disappear by December 11th 2012 - perhaps the Mayans were right after all...
Chart: Bloomberg
»
- 22012 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
haha, love how CNBC talking heads barely mention volume.
They cannot afford to mention that the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street has lost all credibility...or so they think. As for Average Joe, he figured this out months ago.
And now every last one of them using twitter...desperately trying to find an audience. There is none. There is only Bernanke now...and his printing press.
Roll on Greater American Depression...roll on.
The real volume is in the dark pools. NYSE and other indices are for jokers who feel charitable.
Pisani is all over the place with europe etc. cheerleading the DOW higher
I am going to go play World of Warcraft now...at least there the rules favor the prepared.
1/4 of our volume is internal now and growing, plus the external dark pools. Tyler, I didn't appreciate your sense of humour until now.
"And now every last one of them using twitter..."
You noticed this as well, eh ? The "Fast Money" jobbers are particularly active, as is, of course, the clownish Cramer. There is no audience -- save for themselves, and their own network cadre: Welch, and other has-beens.
If it moves, tax it!
Upppss, wrong context...
did you see CNBC's 'election coverage' of Ron Paul today?
it consisted of Jim Cramer saying Fritz Romney (Pro-Big Govt, Pro Regulation, Pro Taxes, Pro Sales Tax) was "good for small business" and Ron Paul (anti-Big Govt, anti Regulations, Anti More Taxes) was a weirdo... the amassed airheads (CNBC presenters) guffed and twittered
I love CNBC... if you ever feel bloody stupid just switch on the village idiots of CNBC, you'll feel like Albert Einstein in no time
That's too friggin' funny! If contrarian indicators are right, as Jim Cramer is often wrong, then we'll have Ron Paul for President for sure!
CNBC = Pravda Left
FOX = Pravda Right
The famous Tepper interview ended with him asking what CNBS ratings were correlated to - trading volume was the answer!!! Ouch
Mandy Skank D. and her fake smiles & exuberance hopefully means she's the next SKANK to be axed, soon I hope.
The appropriate CNBC term for this is 'modest volume'. Soon they will say the market died a 'modest death'.
Yep...at zero volume, we can finally get to DOW 30,000.
Isn't that a divide by zero moment implying infinity? LOL.
I think it implies INDETERMINABLE CONDITION...
yeah, something like we are all trillionaires with absolutely NO purchasing power.
You are absolutely correct in theory. If anyone wanted to tank the market though, they would only have to account for 5% of the volume on the overall markets. I wonder what the threshold is on the HFT's, do they turn tail and follow a leader after 10...20...30%?
So around October this year any schmuck with a single put could be the entire volume of the market, or at least enough to snap the market's back. Shit, why are we protesting? Grab a deck chair, have a beer, we'll watch the spontaneously combustion.
Pensions, all of them, are going to be raped. They'll be holding paper that nobody wants to buy or sell.
How did I even miss this, never thought to calculate the entropy in the shrinking volume. This changes a lot of models...especially the short interest volume.
As the credit printed is used and volume continues to shrink, the HFT's and Algo's miss that entirely because they are instructed to be the volume to counter the puts. As the puts and shorts drop off then hold on the sidelines along with all that credit not being used.
The Maya are preparing Dow 30k hats and mugs as we speak.
Okay, that made me laugh. Needed it too!
Heck with zero volume, one trade and the market can be a 100 million, gazillion, googleplexes or at least a real long black turd. Talk about Volitality. I had this idea that once the FED knew most everyone was out of the market would be the time the market would start driving up.
Hey Burn-my-wanke? Why don't you do that at the stores with food prices and see what happens? I mean bread at $10/loaf and the economy should start moving with a vengence right? The beauty of this is since most people have no money in the market - no-one gives a crap anymore. Shut off CNBC - maybe when everyone stops sucking up the BS Fed can start buying TVs to bolster ratings of their favorite programs!
The FED is caught between falling real-estate prices and climbing oil prices. Interesting no-one notices what natural gas has been doing lately. What I want to know is when oil and NG come back in line because right now I'd like to be filling my car with NG.
l8r,
OldE
Yes we can! In one fell BID.
The Bernank & his motley crew of merry fractional reserve pranksters WILL drive volume to levels akin to a fart in the wind.
Vapors.
Or dust in the wind: http://youtu.be/BvYRqsRZ7vE?t=21s - worked for Socrates
Ummm....we've been at the vapors stage for almost thirty days...which was preceded by 60 days of muddling volume...which of course was preceded by REAL volume...back in Aug/Sept when the market was collapsing.
Right now...these last 5-8 sessions...are the lowest volume advance I have ever seen. Watching McDonalds was interesting earlier this morning, as it revealed just how little sell pressure the market can take...which is none.
And the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street, right now, with this vapor advance, actually believes they are restoring confidence with rising equity prices. And these guys are supposed to be the smartest people in the nation.
My company's stock traded at 2x normal vol after-hours after announcing earnings last week. But in the days before and after it has traded at .2X normal. As you say, for a month or more. It's nearly to the point already where you could ascribe all the trading to random HFT computer interest and call it over.
You need to think like a criminal: that's what they are; as such, these criminals think they are restoring CONfidence with rising equity prices. And these guys think they are the smartest people in the nation, and mock us as they spin their plans to steal and rob.
That chart kind of looks like the "hope and change" barometer promised to us by our Mc Donalds District Manager experience equivalent Commander in Chief!
'McDonalds district manager'
Can I steal that quote EgB?
Too fuckin' real!
Absolutely Hippo, or perhaps use "Fries shaker Commander in Chief" LOL!
What??????
We would be lucky, LUCKY, I SAY, to have a president with the equivalent real-world, business experience of a MickyD's district manager!!!!
He's a Chicago-style 'community organizer', remember?
corrolation with ZH posts and volume? not lookin' good, TD.
Inversely correlated. ZH is going to need alot more bandwidth soon.
"a lot"; not "alot"..there is no such word as "alot"...
Thanks. Spelling not my strong suit. Or punctuation. Or sentence structure. Come to think of it, I am quite terrible at writing.
(edit: I should have put ? at end of the above post!... if volume collapses, S will have HTF and ZH will be booming - at least until we all can't afford internet anymore).
That's pretty damn brave for someone who doesn't even bother to capitalize the first word in a sentence, yanowutimean?
Nice clean head-shot to the spelling cops.
What about "corrolation"?
You say you want a correlation
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
You tell me that it'scorrelation
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
But when you talk aboutcorrelation
Don't you know that you can count me out
Don't you know it's gonna be all right
all right, all right
You say you got a real correlation
Well, you know
We'd all love to see the plan
You ask me for a correlation
Well, you know
We're doing what we can
But when you want money
for people with minds that hate
All I can tell is brother you have to wait
Don't you know it's gonna be all right
all right, all right
Ah
ah, ah, ah, ah, ah...
Did you mean correlation? Just askin
He may have alot of guns and ammo so be careful :)
Says the moron who can't spell correlation.
Correlation is to vol. We can't wait for the day when 1 ES contract moves the market by 5%.
That's what Brian Sack says.
more time to decide between russiancupid.com and brasiliancupid.com
The Mayans are definitely on to something this year.
Let the last algo turn itself off when the ponzi is done.
I keep thinking about Matthew Broderick playing TicTacToe in War Games.
"What you see on these screens up here is a fantasy; a computer enhanced hallucination!"
"Gentlemen, I wouldn't trust this overgrown pile of microchips any further than I can throw it."
That film was channelled by dead Mayans, I am convinced of it.
And the general, Berringer: "I'd piss on a spark plug if I thought it would help!' LOL
Buy and hold is catching on. You think Warren was right?
Keep in mind, once the volume is zero you cannot sell.
You can't sell large positions in small and mid caps now. In theory the value of portfolios looks great, just as great as a mark to myth fantasy. If market valuations were truly mark to market (ie sell to bid cover), you'd be looking at a whole lot less!
When investors are paying the German Buba to hold their money in Bunds (negative rates), than I believe a correction is already happening. Markets are a complete and utter farce since 2009. Get out while you still can.
For no apparent reason I found Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL) down 20% today. Someone sold close to 20 million shares at the open. The bid side wasn't prepared. So, there's your new valuation. Total trade 53 million vs. daily average of 7 million.
It's not only Bunds that are selling like hotcakes. Treasuries are up as well in this alleged "bull market". Debt paper up and equities up? Makes no sense unless the equities are being propped up until the floor has to fall out.
"In theory the value of portfolios looks great" yea, just ask that "great value manager" Whitney Tilson
volume in a vacuum, need only the dark pool heated to robo-temps, for total melt-up?
Buying paper (Zero) and Holding Paper (Zero) equals Zero!
Buying Physical Gold and Holding Physical Gold equals owning Gold!
Physical PM's....Dope it out!
Look we gotta make it look real. It's a matter of national and Fed pride. Yes, there are very few actual investors, and yeah it's not a reflection of economic activity or prospects, but it makes citizens happy when they can say "my market's better than your market!"
Robo will make sure that there'll always be volume!!.!
How do you count rear-view-mirror volume?!?
He puts a mirror on the floor and squats naked.
Like the "Tin Foil fish" , that swim around " PONZI" aquariums!
in a trailing vacuum via boyle's law
Yes, it sucks equally in all directions.
S&P Index is also called "save the bankers federation". Please give generously.
I will celebrate this when the volume hits nagative.
Well with zero volume that should take care of all over head resistance. Robo can be the last trader on earth.
This whole Mayan thing is starting to creep me out.
There's definitely a lot of festering boils due to pop by the 2012 date.
http://i44.tinypic.com/nvpjeo.jpg
We can all relax!
Brangelina speaks with Obama at WH...http://washingtonscene.thehill.com/in-the-know/36-news/13579-judy-kurtz-
Kind of looks a lot like the Retail sales trend for the last 20 or so years.
http://i1140.photobucket.com/albums/n579/bearasaur/PMStatsr3_14990_image...
Edit: Oops, that was grocery. Here is link to Retail Sales.
http://i1140.photobucket.com/albums/n579/bearasaur/RetailSalesMoM_12343_...
Really, what is the difference?
$ dilution or liberty...Your choice!
It's one thing to know that the low trading volume means that the retail investor is absent from this market but this downward trend sure is strange.
I am sorry to ask this, but what is meant by "post US downgrade"?
thx
From the time S&P downgraded U.S. debt until now.
It means after S&P downgraded U.S. debt.
We're living in the post-unthinkable era
Soon to be known as "1st US downgrade".
Or is there "no rsk of that".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7Z0L-NYFlE
"No risk of a downgrade" - Douchebag Timmah
The McDonalds District Manager, under his watch, let the USofA be downgraded to AA+. But don't worry........bathtub Warren insists we're quadruple-A
mmm...Mac Snack Wraps
it means you're not paying attention!
Low volume makes it much easier for the PPT.
When we get high volume, it will be a negative event for the market.
What volume you're seeing is fool's volume. It is high-frequency trading gone amok.
David Hunkar recently wrote:
Well according to ICI: $9.4 billion net redemptions from stock funds first week of 2012.
It would appear as though consumers are now taking money out of stocks to pay the minimum balance on the loans that they used to buy iCrap.
Booyah.
Bullish! Long iCrap!!
Always buy the dip! TECH is your dip! Start , r (H)amping up ( Drugs)>
Wow, it hasn't slowed at all.
And changing allocations in their 401ks to debt.
Man that "Thundering Herd" over at ML must sure as hell be busy!!
Going to be real interesting when I have to walk into my bank later this year and ask to withdraw all and will only accept $100 bills. Teller's face will tell all.
call ahead and ask for 10 & 20..100's are too big
Most of the cash on hand I have is in 20's. They would be easier to use. I think 100's could create problems if people do not have change.
That will happen.
People will not have change.
No Hope, no Cash, no Jobs, no change
/ sarc off
Not only making change, some places just won't accept 100's. I had 100's in my mattress bank last year and had some problems spending them. Its all 20's now.
@JLM Before you head on over to the bank, make sure you are ready for the SAR that will undoubtedly be filed on you. Don't ask me how I know.
@JLM - call ahead to your bank to allow them to get the physical bills. Don't go in there with a flip attitude or you might find yourself under arrest and your money confiscated. Pretend like you've done this before, and WHEN they ask what you're going to do with all that cash, you can get by with something like, I need to pay a cash bond, or i'm going to the auto auction and they don't accept checks or cards. They also will file a SAR on you, because, it's not really your money anyway....
just like the Hindenberg Omen? that really sunk the market?
What do charts mean if the whole thing is rigged?
So does this mean if I buy one SPY, I move the market?
Outflows are occuring because:
Been in USTs since August. Had enough, and have done very well. Now thinking about moving all those chips to half gold. Real, physical gold coins.
Very obvios most Stocks just flatling for months. Only trading in the Stocks is the HFT. Although, I doubt they are even making money as there is no one else in the Market.
I think everyone here on Zero Hedge all predicted that with the Computer HFT controling the Market that no one would participate. Especially with the sub penny trades. Yet, SEC did nothing about it even after a very long comment perod. So, I guess people just gave up and pulled their Money out of the Market.
The other thing keeping the Market in a flatline are the Weekly Options. At least before the Weelky Options a Stock could trade up or down during the Month. Now, Stocks are not only controled by the HFT Computers but the Weekly Options.
I agree! Chop Suey for a couple of weeks. Correlations need to be set!
When I play an online game and see myself getting dominated by someone that is using some type of cheat technology it is no longer fun. I log out and do something else.
If we just moved back to 1/8 point minimum ticks then that would immediately render the algos less relevant.
chart looks like Obummas polling numbers
...even the sheeple are cottoning on they've got a Marxist bankers puppet as President
So in other words a flourishing Wall Street=endless wars and death in the millions and shitty living conditions that even get worse. And a market with zero volume=we're all dead. Including the majority of the assholes that caused this problem. Take your pick.
http://wakeup-world.com/2011/09/06/full-blown-civil-war-erupts-on-wall-street-financial-elite-start-turning-on-each-other/
...relax, it's been reported that Fukushima Fish are walking out of the water and onto plates. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAw0fwJTe94&feature=channel_video_title They are calling it ''Darwin Fish' for now', something about evolution claims and encephalitis. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Sp-VFBbjpE Masonic Manson Manna was tossed around but they said it sounded to Newt Romney and Obombachristish.
I think many are still spooked by 2008 and than the flash crash. I know Wall Street forgot about all of that but I do not think that the Retail Investor did. Kind of waiting for the next shoe to drop.
I am sure that many have sold or liquidated their 401Ks just to live or maybe save their Homes.
Then you have the Boomers that could not survive another 2008 as it would wipe them out and they would be eating dog food. I am sure many are withdrawing Money from the Market just to be safe.
I think Wall Street shot themselves in the foot with the 2008 Crash, the Flash Crash, the HFT and the Weekly Options. Now they do not have anyone to trade with except themselves.
The markets are a " GIANT Pennant" ! It's like an outside close, looking for a direction!
I also wonder how many people cashed out of the Market or their 401K to pay off their Credit Card Debts. Remember when the Banks doubled the interest they charged on Credit Card Debt? It is even worth borrowing money from your 401K to pay off Credit Card Debt.
I know I pulled Money out of the Market to pay off a Credit Card that I was paying 9% on. They raised the interest rate to 18.9%, so I paid it off. What was funny is that they then offered me 0% interest with 3% up front to re borrow the Money for a year. So I did.
In many cases with the Market flat lining it pays to take your Money out and pay down Credit Card, Mortgage, and Car Loans. You have to evaluate if the 3 to 4% return you get in the market (considering the risk you take with your money in the market)will compensate you for the interest you may be paying on the Debt you carry. Obviously, paying off a Credit Card out weighs any possible returns you can earn in the Market.
If you don't have any other debt, then paying off mortgage is a sound plan. Don't listen to those financial experts who tell you that they will "put your money to work". It will be "aaaand it's gone". No one is paying you 6% (as an example) in returns. Why keep paying that mortgage interest to the TBTF banks. Don't fall for the con that you are getting tax deductions for the mortgage interest. It's pittance if any.
Exactly,
I paid off most of the Mortgages. Still have a few small ones. Does not even pay to refinance them although they are at higer interest rates than normal. A 35,000 Mortgage would cost close to $5,000. to refinance. Plus, no one wants to refinance a 35,000 Mortgage, they hit you with a ton of points. So, you end up with a 40,000 Mortgage for 30 years when you only had another 10 years to pay it off. But anything paid against that Mortgage would yeld the same interest you are paying. More than likely more than the Market will provide or the Treasurys.
Let's see what is paying more than the real inflation rate....bonds? Nope,nope, uhm industrial and service stocks ....not really....Oh PM related stocks, funds, and physical buys. The local imporium fo death dealing instruments is still doing a brisk business. They don't seem to be having a lot of returns from Christmas buys either. One of the counter guys said long term it is kind of worrying. Sooner or later someone will roll in a wheel barrel of cash and won't be able to buy anything with it.
Perhaps the fed can start buying and selling to itself on the NYSE? Infinite volume!
Birinyi's Ruler almost as good as Hindenberg's Omen, but not as cool as the Kumo 'Ort Cloud' Break which is now escorting Wormwood and headed this way.
There have been many trading days lately where it looks like one machine is trading the entire market.
.....is it possible to enter the realm of negative numbers for volume????
Last time I had a Biryani I was on the khazi for 24 hours. Steer well wide of the Taj Mahal in South Croydon folks.
Hey, if the Dow and S&P go down to 6,666 and 666 respectively, I'm buying Las Vegas Sands, Wynn, S&W, Winchester, Kraft, Vice Fund, Phillip Morris, and UPS.
The former function of the human being vis a vis the stock market... was to provide liquidity
Get in early. No stops until after europe closes and then a only a loose stop. Be out by day's end. Survival of the most nimble and strong stomached. No 3x's. Amen.
"On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero (you fucking idiots)."
Remember when we had that earthquake up here in the NE over the summer?
The floor traders and everyone else was asked to evacuate the NYSE building and the market didn't skip a beat, as a matter of fact, the dollar gained a little strength while the floor was vacant. That should tell you something. Bot's had full control without human intervention.