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Birth Death Adds 87K To Today's NFP Miss, 491K Jobs In Past Year Due To "Statistics"
Take Green (i.e. double zero), and subtract from it the Birth Death adjustment and presto: you have reality, or what we predicted earlier today- a negative NFP print. Also, for the seasonal sticklers Birth Death has added 491k jobs in the past year: no seasonality here.
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Green to the moon! QE3 here we come!
Anyone heard from Laszlo Birinyi recently???????????????
they sure were serious when they called it the jobless recovery
I'm more partial to a comment some time ago I read where someone called this the "recoveryless" recovery..
Perhaps now the kleptocrats will recognize that they are outnumbered. Definitely a world war on many fronts coming. Know your neighbor? Got physical? You better.
QE? or QEn+1 ???
QE to the n+1 ($.GT.0)
Why didn't they birth/death adjust 187k jobs, then it could have been an OK print?
Plausible deniability.
They have been jacking the number all year. Gotta stay within the range or even the mental PhD midgets might ask too many uncomfortable questions.
That, plus they have to take them out in Jan 12 so that number which already appears on track to suck might go over the -1 million...maybe they realized the web of lies is catching up with them. Or maybe not.
Where's MY Job at the B(L)S?
I can be wrong every week, every month and have my work constantly revised by 60%, 80%...
And not get fired for churning out statistical crap again and again...
If the prerequisite for B(LS) or BEA employment is clueless fuck... don't I qualify???
The "big B" little l"BigS" bda number wreaks every month because of where they pull it (a dark place that is not the sand). It is all BS statistical nonsense.
So, to answer your question, "why?" Because the real birth death adjustment was MUCH less. They pulled every statistical rabbit up to the point of making a total mockery to just get to zero.
"Mr, Prez, it is the BLS, they say it is important"
Not now, I'm watching Entourage. Man, that is funny stuff
"They say it is important"
What is it??? (exasperated)
"They say they are going to report a number that is a loss of 400 thousand jobs"
Come on. Those morons can't do anything right. It is our number. Make it whatever you want! Use that birth-job adjustment thingie...just get it to some number that ain't negative.
"sir, its done."
Man, look at the guy Matt Dillon's brother. the dog wouldn't play with him..he, he, he....hey that's an idea....maybe the BLS should hire more people....I wonder if I can get in 18 tomorrow...I knew those guys at Solyndra were the wrong horse...I wonder if Bono can come over tomorrow...
Bloomberg headline: "US workers unable to work due to bad weather in August." When will people recognize its because the economy is sick?
http://www.entendance.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=792&p=19098#p19098
sooo, what you are saying is that solution is less births and more deaths?
We all know that solution is WAR too.
Thanks to corporate whore policies... enacted by bought and sold corporate whore politicians... enacted by corporate owned governance...
More small businesses die than are born everyday killing employment...
Birth/Death Should be Running Negatives
Birth/Death ratio should be -87k this month and -491k for the year... But we all know when propaganda is wrapped in numbers...
The Amerikan sheeple are defenseless...
Soooo, yes more deaths...
Establishment flat our engaged in a War of Lies against the American people to remain in power.
We should just elect the Birth Death Model president. It is the greatest job creator in U.S. history.
but the total number of employed keeps dropping.....so how can birth deathe keep going up?????
Because it's a made up fantasy number that lets them make the final result whatever they want it to be.
Like Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER)... How much would I pay to rent my own house if I didn't own it....
The BEA Requires a PhD in Economics from the "Right" School
Yeah, yeah that's it... Instead of reality, facts or data we will just pull this number out of our asses for the CPI...
Here's the answer from Microsoft Excel "Help" "
Use Goal Seek to find the result you want by adjusting an input value
If you know the result that you want from a formula, but are not sure what input value the formula needs to get that result, use the Goal Seek feature. For example, suppose that you need to report on non-farm payrolls. You know how many jobs were created, how many were lost, and what number you need to justify QE3. You can use Goal Seek to determine what birth-death adjustment you will need to report in order to prevent NFP (and Obama’s re-election chances) of falling below zero."
What's the over/under on how long it takes Bernanke to issue a statement calling this transitory?
From Bloomberg - "Add in the Verizon workers and the economy is still gaining about 45,000 jobs a month"
Right.
Invest in lipstick.
so I can look pretty when someone (gov / fed) has sex to me?
Also to keep pigs looking pretty.
I heard that this morning, as well. Mike must be hoping and dreaming again. I guess the term job creation is all realtive when you are scrapping the bottom of the barrel. QE3 is on its way and will be used to push long term bonds down and force people to short term risks, which will spike commodities.
Good call TD
Is that huge spike down in January 2011 from when they went back and changed the last 5 or mor years of statistics?
Net YTD is actually +471K, not +491K, as per BLS data: http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
Stand and be recognized if you are one of the 491,000!
This article is unfair. The small business jobs are real but the data is only available annually. So they have a forecast model that attempts to predict the monthly amount. At the end of the year, the sum of forecasts is adjusted to the real number.
Birth-death isn't fake, it's a forecast of what the real annual numbers will add up to monthly. It may be manipulated, but it gets ccorrected with real data annually.
And it's not like the market pays attention to NFP anyway. They always wait for the annual adjustment, so they can be sure they are trading on accurate data.
Or did I dream that????
Dude, they adjusted it DOWN nearly half a million jobs from last year. Who ever the forecaster is should be fired cause they suck.
You know what we need? We need to spend another trillion dollars for shovel ready jobs that produce one middle class job per $700k spent.
That's winning.
As long as the debt is increasing, the banks are in fact winning.
Rodent, @ 09:33,
No, that's TYPICAL GOV'T WASTE...............and why we are screwed as a Nation,barring a miracle in 2012.
The DA's do not get it, they create nothing, and destroy everything they touch.
Saw a blurb yesterday,$150k in Stimulus money given to renovate a building that was scheduled to be TORN DOWN!!!!!!!!.
You cannot make this stuff up.
IDIOTS.
How do they take into account the flow of illegal immigrants in the birth/death statistic? People like Obama's uncle, and aunt.
People like Obama, who were supposedly born in Hawaii but have Connecticut SSN numbers do not get included in the data. His uncle had a valid SSN number too even though he was here illegally. Shocker!
Birth/death only applies to companies, not individuals.
The maret is having a pretty good reaction to this. Down 185 after a nice 10am algo buy.
ooooohhh two of the top 5 areas hiring are the armed forces. Tacco Bell will save us all they have 22k job openings!!!!!!
Stocks and 100 P/E corps are down to what two days ago.
0% unemployment because everyone's dead, bitchez.
The process to create jobs involves the following steps :
Replace the top management of the too big to fail banks, put the existing ones in prison and charge them with fraud and misrepresentation. Reclaim the remuneration and bonuses that they have earned during their tenure at the bank. Break the too big to fail banks into smaller ones so that they are no longer a risk to the whole financial system. Implement the Glass Stegall Act.
Use the reclaimed billions of dollars from the arrested bankers and use them to improve the infrastructure of the country. This would create jobs instantly and the improved infrastructure would give the confidence to the small businessman to hire more people.
Tax the richest 5% of the population heavily as they no longer create jobs in the country but outsource the jobs to the low cost developing nations. Stop completely the funding of election candidates by corporates and rich individuals so that their influence on politicians to make rules beneficial to themselves is clipped.
Ban the use of derivatives and speculation in the stock, commodities and currency markets. Stopping speculation in commodity markets would reduce their prices substantially which would be beneficial to the majority of the population. This would lead to a better standard of living for the middle class families and they would go out and spend helping the revival of the economy.
But in the real world we can keep on dreaming.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html
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