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Black Friday Arrives: Biggest Weekly Move In 30 Year Bond Since Black Monday
30Y rates move more than three standard deviations this week - the greatest move since Black Monday (1987) - as it drops 55bps - hhmm - stability.
or 7 standard deviations of a percentage move basis given how low rates are:
Chart: Bloomberg
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The Careless Whisper Morning Report
Union Thinks Workers Should Be Paid More To Put Bolts On Fords Than Chevys
http://www.detnews.com/article/20110923/AUTO01/109230390/UAW-wants-riche...
DOE No-Bid $1 Mill To Lazard For Bankruptcy Advice On Solyndra Months Before Filing
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/sep/22/bankruptcy-scenario-play...
Fox News Pulls Debate Poll From Internet After Ron Paul Winner With 42%
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/09/22/who-won-debate/
50% Of LA Deputy Shootings Against Unarmed Citizens
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-unarmed-shootings-20110923,0,245...
Bobblehead Meg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmudJbnELoc
Say Hello To My Little Friend; Hollywood Thinks It Can Remake Scarface
http://www.deadline.com/2011/09/universal-pictures-readying-a-new-scarface/
NYC Deputy Mayor, Former GoldmanSachs Vice CEO, Flaunts NYC Residency Requirement; Greenwich Resident Honored At Greenwich Historical Society; Recieves Award At Greenwich Yacht Club; Bloomberg -- He Lives In NYC!
http://www.greenwichtime.com/news/article/Home-away-from-home-Does-NYC-d...
Took a bit of searching, but the debate poll is here.
http://foxnewsinsider.com/2011/09/22/vote-who-won-the-fox-newsgoogle-deb...
Ron Paul 73.57%
Exactly.....and this morning on the news (here in Florida) they pop up a picture of both Romney and Perry but not a mention of Paul. What a crock of Schmidt!
On Blmbrg, CNBS and FuxBiz they talked about those two nitwits because they were squabbling with one another. Meanwhile they just reinforce one another's flaws about being unprincipled and flipflopping panderers who only care about pleasing lobbyists and staying in power.
Thanks to the Internet, the connection between the MSM and the political scene is more obvious than ever. It nearly makes me wretch.
Everything is just one big scramble to keep the failure from happening under the current watch.
its not the official FN poll
Union workers sunk GM and now they want to sink Ford too. Isn't that a long time plan being implemented to break the American industry, and succeeding?
I don't mean ill to the workers, but to the Union. Wake up America!
ps. Don't give me crap about evil capitalists, fat cat CEOs and the like. The workers can always strike against bad management and they didn't.
Ford is building a new plant that will create 5,000 new jobs - in India.
I don't blame them.
interesting.
http://covert3.wordpress.com
All hail the Chair SATAN for creating such a wonderful unstable system
Damn, should've waited another week before I started shorting treasuries.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmW-ScmGRMA
You shouldn't be shorting them at all. It's amazing to me that people are still bearish on bonds. Haven't you studied history at all? Japan is the ultimate blueprint for what's happening here.
And for people who shit on the research of big brokerage firms (which I also shit on), every one of them was calling for highest interest rates and telling their clients to reduce their bond positions. So the bond bears on ZH were on the same side of the trade as the Merrills, Goldmans, UBS, etc. It's mind-boggling to me.
It was a joke. He was quoting the movie "Airplane."
Ah, I apologize for my rant then.
And while we're at it.
Good luck, we're all counting on you.
By the way, is there anyone on board who knows how to run a Federal Reserve?
If given the post of FED Chairman tomorrow, I would happily shut the whole thing down.
...but who didn't have fish for dinner?
Some differences between Japan and the US.
1. Japan was still exporting goods and had a trade surplus.
2. Japanese people own the majority of the debt. In the US I believe the US Fed is the largest single holder of Treasuries with, US citizens owning about 65-70% of bonds issued and foreign governments owning about 30-35% of US bonds.
The problem with the above is that if and when those overseas people decide to spend their money and it comes home it will cause inflation.
I would not be short or long on any paper asset from a trading perspective my view as a small player is the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Even Warren Buffet talks how he nearly got pulled into the tech bubble of the late 90's Now thats irrational exeuberence :)
"Roger, Roger"
Roger: "What?"
Ben B to Tim G:
"Timmy, do you like movies about Gladiators?"
'ever seen a grown short naked?'
Ive been watching TMV for 2.5 years - wanting to get in.
Luckily I have not.
Everytime I think "here's a good entry point", Bernake provides a better one.
An there may not be a good time to get in until 2013?
pladizow,
you don't know me and you may not even like me, but those tit you used to sport were some of my all-time favs! what gives?
I originally chose an avatar that would "stand out" as I searched for my own comments when looking through the thread.
Then suddenly there were a couple of other people who chose similar avatars.
It was because of these copy cats that I changed my avatar.
Now I know many could argue that you cant have too many tits - but I was no longer unique.
I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
Go long my brother, for the short term!!
We're in the midst of The Great Recovery. Don't destabilize the effects of the hopium with facts.
Thanks Tyler for answering this question. I knew it was coming.
Cue Steely Dan:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1ZV4Mx7tw8
And it didn't even take him the full 15 minutes. Genius at work.
That douch bag Jack Welch is on CNBS this morning definitely NOT talking about how he made the oldest and most successful company in the history of the USA into a hollowed out financing company. God rot his hypocritical withered soul. He was considered the ideal manager, but today he looks like a damn fool and a phony gambler.
By what metric?
Its longevity for one thing.
over 100 years old and they have more debt and more shares outstanding than ever. Success like that we can do without.
Good point, I was foaming at the mouth. Well, it's the oldest in the S&P500 I think.
spot on, thx
Successful my ass. They don't make iPads...
Agree, Smiddy. He is a total shill for the concept that prevailed since the 1980s: outsource all productive industry where possible along with jobs, financialize to the max and become a 'service' provider. Unfortunately that was selling the farm, a mistake that the US might never recover from now that resources, technology and knowhow are gone and momentum is picking up elsewhere. GE wasn't the only company but Jack was the loudest cheerleader adn the most pompus ass around.
awesome, saved from saying the same shit, unreal, all the worship is too much. This is a guy that made his money, then ASKED for certain things in his Leaving Package, like an allowance for everything from jet use to dry cleaning. What an ass.
awesome, saved from saying the same shit, unreal, all the worship is too much. This is a guy that made his money, then ASKED for certain things in his Leaving Package, like an allowance for everything from jet use to dry cleaning. What an ass.
Not to worry. The Obama administration has a great plan to put us all to work shoveling shit, filling potholes, buliding schools in Detroit and Newark, all under the supervision of our federally-funded union overlords.
Because we all know that those jobs create lasting value and will turn this economy around. Pay no attention to record poverty, a housing market in freefall and no jobs.
Believe the hype...
And we'll all be handed spoons to do it with!
Plastic sporks...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g09GtnWdBjc
Scrap copper prices today in the UK:
Yesterday evening - about £4 kilo
This morning, two quotes, $3.50 and £3.70
I got delayed, couldn't get to the yard this morning.
Price 5 minutes ago: £1.50
I kid you not. Physical copper in the Uk has fallen 55% in 24 hours.
Of course there will be a rebound, but let me tell you I think this IS the big crash. Denninger may be right after all (Tyler always is)
Good luck everyone.
I hope Blythe was hedged on the copper. From what I can see the silver shorts are still way underwater even at $33.
Source of quote?
how are those underfunded pensions going to get paid for all the public leeches......keep your heads in the sand , your pot of gold will still be waiting for you at the end of the rainbow with the flying unicorns
for those kicking yourselves for missing out on the PM's rise, here'a chance to get in, although it could probably go lower from here. Just average in
Be a man, pick some targets:
Au: 1490
Ag: 27
Better than just averaging in with physical, also buy in other currencies for a play, not to bury in the backyard obviously.
Everytime anyone local disses physical, I offer to buy their ASE's at spot prices.
Hmmm, no takers yet.
Please, no more standard deviations.
I paid right at 1895 per ounce for my latest adds...and somehow...
"on a long enough timeline...I do not worry"
Because the stack keeps looking prettier.
Same here. I bought a bunch of silver when it was around 48$, and bought an oz of gold around 1850 not long ago. But I've been buying with every penny I could find for about 3.5 years, since my "awakening". So there's 14$ silver and 900$ gold mixed in with the "expensive" gold and silver. But you know what, looking at them I can't tell the difference, but am damn pleased I own them and they are in my possession. Sure, i'd be pacing and chewing my nails off if it was all gold stocks and ETF that I traded, but as long as my physical stash didn't evaporate last night, i don't give it a thought to weeks like this. Corny as it sounds, this is a philisophical battle between good and evil. So come payday, next Friday, no matter the price, I will walk down to my coin dealer and take 10 oz of silver out of circulation, or a small bag of dimes and quarters, or whatever he's got that I can afford that day, and rinse and repeat two weeks later. To me, this is a fucking ultra-marathon, not a 40-yard dash.
Woot.. 2.8%! I am going to go buy me a house!.....Oh wait, I don't have a job..
Anyone know anyone that can get me a no doc ARM at 5% with no money down and cash back for repairs using an inflated appraisal so I can rent it out? It's time to let the good times roll again!
Try calling Alan Greenspan, Barney Frank or Chris Dodd.
I must say, this is kind of hardcore! Big fish moving in FX, its liquid but the amounts being thrown around are mental. Its in conditions like these that margin becomes a real pain...
OT: Was Ron Paul a no show at last nights debate?
He was there and he was in fine form. He won the debate poll so Fox had to take it off their website. No need to worry, he shall overcome.
Ron Paul Explorer: The All Paul Search Engine
Ron Paul was there and spoke of liberty.
Not that anyone cares and don't follow me but if they manage to close SPY, going into the weekend without having explored at least a minor intra day low below 110.27 before turning higher then come Monday the tape snaps and down we go big time. just wanted to post that for the record.
oh and smoke'm if you got'm bitches
I don't care what my physical does. That's for the future. My paper gold is closed and I'm sitting in cash so I can wait for a bottom. The end of our fiscal and monetary systems won't come today. Enjoy the show.
I'm waiting it out. I expect our AUD to drop to about 75-80c - a near replay of 2008 as everyone around the world rushes to liquidity.
Gold can drop a lot, but as long as our dollar drops more, I'm still winning.
Problem is, I wonder if we're going to drown in the liquidity this time.
its not about stability, its all about...ahh forget it
now i understand finance deviations...the ones i did were more absolute.
funny how a single sentence from TD can clear up everything.
and, btw, this is it...doom and all that shit.
it's gonna be a record breaker -- everything is right there.
Long duration bitchez!
WOW damn near 0% US Treasury rates across the board gee thanks Man o the Year Bernanke for the Greatest Depression! We're supposed to think this is 'good news' or something since the Treasury doesnt have to pay interest to savers...what a debaucle.
30 Year is pricing in a booming economy!
Ben on late night TV yesterday : "....Bond yields so low we're practically giving money away! Crazy Benny....His Yields Are INSANnnnnnnE
What is a "standard deviation?" is it different from a "normal deviation?" how about an "abnormal deviation"? And we are deviating from our deviation can we ever hope for a return to normalcy? Or are we just stuck with the mean?
Remember, the Fed wants everybody to come begging for QE3 on bended knee. The Fed will reply 'Ok, we'll print, but remember I told you that the consequences would be severe to include high inflation, much higher oil prices, and possible civil unrest'.
On the QE3 prerequisites checklist is: much lower oil prices, lower commodity prices and the above (begging). Unfortunately, this list can not be achieved without a pretty severe market crash. So, we'll see, eh?
It won''t be begging.
Politicians will (eventually) beg.
I was thinking 'demand'. I'm waiting for a Tea Party presidential candidate to break the ice. Since he is now disappearing in the polls, I nominate Rick Parry to do the honors.
Looks like green friday to me.
With Bond and notes being the safe haven, and gold and silver being dumped. I wonder if China will start dumping their massive US treasury positions and accumulate more precise metals. They got 1.2 Trillions dollars worth of Treasury notes and bonds. If the Chinese don't get rid of them now, I doubt they would have any chance later.
I would say 2.5% is nice entry point for TBT as a long term holding....the treasury market is a complete joke...these yields are unsustainanle.
JPM made back some of their incredible losses in the naked short paper Silver market today and yesterday. Don't worry. Game plan is the same. The real spot price of silver is about $42...
I bought my silver to hold and to trade when the shit hits the fan for goods and food. Every bug out bag should have 25 rounds of silver in it for just that reason. I may back up the truck this weekend at the coin shop but I need some other things that are taking priority at the moment.
Wow not down that much so far and Apple and Netflix are up. Momo stocks aren't doing that bad. Could be looking at the mother of all PPT Fed backed basket buys today. BAC is up over 1% as well. Doesn't make sense.
Of course the world will always look to the US for the strength to manipulate markets in the face of overwhelming bad news. Remember the cord to reality has been completely severed and all that matters is keeping US equity markets up. Without bubble valuations and insane market caps our country can't run.
Simple, the markets are scrogged. Or, more succinctly, they are a manipulated joke. That said; who has the most invested in the markets right now? What group of entities have the most to lose (read, free money from the Fed)? Why, the TBTF's, of course. So, who is selling PM paper right now and what are they using the proceeds to do? If not for this, I imagine the market would be much worse off.
And what the fuck is going on with Gold and Silver?
Is this just a massive hit because people are scrambling to raise liquidity...and even though silver has dropped about 15-20% in a couple days...it is still up pretty big y o y?
I mean seriously? People are selling their positsions in some of the only real, tangible assets out there? To buy what? Treasuries? How fucking counter-intuitive is that?
I will tell you one thing I know for a certainty though...you WILL not be able to buy physical silver for $33.00 an ounce - anywhere - Not even bags of 90% Silver U.S. coin....At some point, the physical market, and the paper marker (SPOT price) are going to have to de-coupple from each other...While the paper market helps create some pretty impressive jumps in "price' earlier this year...it's main role is to obfuscate and interfere with the true price of silver (and to a lesser extent, gold)
I always find it amusing when peole are fucking panicking ...and boy are they ever....you can taste the fucking panic in the air right now as people are slowly starting to realize that the FED is impotent and powerless to stop the shit that is rolling down the hill...right towards them. Short of dropping $100.00 bills out of a helecopter...what the "da chairman" gonna do? What can he do? The little fucker shot his wad already...and now he is limp-dicked and unable to satisfy the market monster he and Greenspan has created....Thank you Dr. Bernank-en-stein.
PMs are a staircase, not a bottle rocket. Secular bull market due to the U.S.A. becoming a banana republic, with nukes. Bernanke can still do plenty for his bosses on Wall Street, lend 'em another $16 trillion... see GAO Report? http://sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/news/?id=9e2a4ea8-6e73-4be2-a753-62060dcbb3c3 PAGE 131
'Amazing', all bank stocks are up. Gee, how surprising! I can only guess who is buying their stock, hmmm. I can venture a guess at whose money they are using.
Like I said yesterday, I think this entire episode was to prevent gold from breaching $2k on the upside. The whole thing feels orchestrated. I'm sure the Fed, through its intermediaries, are QEing without officially announcing it.
Stocks now in the green. Surprised? It's your money being put to work for others. LOL.
This will be one of many warning signs, today. The recent avtions of the Fed only postpone the inevitable. Down the road, we'll see who just doesn't get paid. There won't be anyone to say something at the Fed's funeral, when it gets buried in a paper casket. Dying from debt poisoning is as ignominious as dying from alcoholism.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/08/09/fiat-addiction-update-08092011/
Have to admit its an interesting set-up today...Friday, no news, at the lows of the move. We could gap down as easily as gap up Monday.
Looks like I picked a good week to refinance the mortgage but a bad week to stop sniffing glue.
One rumor and the whole bunch runs into stocks. No Armageddon. We're still alive.
Crash on Monday.
Anyone remember the story where GS evoked $2500 gold?
"JP Morgan, a foremost and global financial services market leader has predicted a surge in the price of gold to attain $2,500 or higher per ounce by year end according to a statement credited to Colin Fenton and Jonah Waxman who are commodity analysts of the financial services giant.
Also, Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to continue to climb into 2012 considering the low level of the real interest rates of the United States and sovereign debt problems in the US and Europe.
Read more: http://www.thegoldeconomy.com/2011/08/good-news-for-gold-traders-jp-morgan-forecasts-2500-price-for-gold-and-goldman-sachs-expects-gold-prices-to-climb-into-2012/#ixzz1Yn459eqc
Clean out the newby suckers. Shake confidence. Cover shorts.
Blog and links announcement
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/09/23/blogs-and-links/