Black Friday Shopping Like There Is No Tomorrow?
By now the broader population has been inundated with reports of what a stunning retail experience Black Friday was. And for those who haven't just head over to CNBC: "Sales rose an estimated 6.6 percent to a record $11.4 billion on Black Friday, typically the busiest shopping day of the year for Americans, while the traffic at stores rose 5.1 percent, according to ShopperTrak. The day's sales growth was the strongest percentage gain since 2007, when sales rose 8.3 percent on the day after Thanksgiving, said Ed Marcheselli, chief marketing officer at ShopperTrak, which monitors retail traffic." This is happening despite the savings rate recently dropping to pre-Depressionary level, and despite revolving consumer credit (as in not cars and colleges), continuing to contract. That there is more than enough fine print will be largely irrelevant for the mainstream media which will naturally trumpet this as the next best thing to the S&P actually rising for once: "More than 120 stores at the Mall of America opened at midnight. The crowd at that point was about 15,000 people. Mall operators estimated that it was the largest crowd ever at the mall, which is big enough to hold seven Yankee Stadiums. While eager shoppers emerged from stores around the country lugging big-screen TVs and bags full of video games and toys, it was far from certain that people will pull out their wallets for much more than the best deals this year. Shoppers with limited budgets started using layaway at chains such as Walmart as early as October. Retail shares fell more than the overall market on Friday. "Americans are still worried about jobs, still worried about the economy," said Mike Thielmann, group executive vice president at J.C. Penney, who noted that shoppers were buying gifts and for themselves, and said jewelry was selling well." Yet what really caught our attention was the Retail Group comparison of this "record" black Friday Weekend. From Bloomberg: 'RETAIL GROUP SAYS SECOND-BEST BLACK FRIDAY WEEKEND WAS IN 2008." As a reminder, Thanksgiving 2008 happened just after a nearly 400 point plunge in the S&P in two months as can be seen in the chart below. Which begs the question: with the world on the verge every single day once again, is it a coincidence that people spent more than they did only compared to 2008 when the world was once again ending. In other words, did Americans really spend "like there is no tomorrow" (more so than ever that is)... and what happens when the bill (because there is no doubt the purchasing was entirely on credit) is in the mailbox?
S&P heading into Thanksgiving 2008: must have done miracles for consumer confidence and desire to spend...
And for those who like comparative charting, is the action in 2008 predicting something very ugly for the immediate future, now that Joe Sixpack has spent themselves broke?
And some other indicative headlines from the Retail Federation courtesy of Bloomberg:
- RECORD 226 MLN SHOPPED OVER U.S. HOLIDAY WEEKEND, SURVEY FINDS
- MEN OUTSPENT AND OUTSHOPPED WOMEN,' NRF'S ELLEN DAVIS SAYS
- NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION COMMENTS IN E-MAILED STATEMENT
- U.S. HOLIDAY SHOPPER SPENT $398.62, RETAIL GROUP SURVEY SAYS
- TOTAL U.S. SPENDING WAS RECORD $52.4 BLN, RETAIL SURVEY FINDS
- U.S. SHOPPERS SPENT $150.53 ON ONLINE PURCHASES, GROUP SAYS
- 28.7 MLN PEOPLE SHOPPED ONLINE, AT STORES, UP FROM 22.2 MLN
- 51.4% OF SPENDING WENT TO CLOTHING, ACCESSORIES, SURVEY FINDS
- DEPARTMENT STORES MOST POPULAR DESTINATION, RETAIL GROUP SAYS
- RETAIL FEDERATION CONDUCTED SURVEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
- MORE `SELF-GIFTING' THIS YEAR, NATL RETAIL FEDERATION SAYS
- RETAIL GROUP SAYS MORE PURCHASING IN DISCRETIONARY CATEGORIES
- BLACK FRIDAY WEEKEND MAKES UP ABOUT 10% OF HOLIDAY SALES: NRF
- NRF WON'T CONSIDER REVISING FORECAST UNTIL NOV. SALES REPORTED
- RETAIL GROUP SAYS SECOND-BEST BLACK FRIDAY WEEKEND WAS IN 2008
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It's time to confound their knavish tricks.
I spent a lot of time slumming at some of the Black Friday web sites. Personally I haven't spend a dime yet, but amongst the regulars they all seem to agree that there was a lot of 'noobs' this year.
Many showing up just to see what all the fuss was about. Not spending, just obeying what the tv told them they should be doing.
aprox $2600 of that was me....i bought an ounce and a half
I bought 403 ounces of Gold in the last couple of weeks, I was busy on thrusday I guess it does not count... pfff. fuck money markets and equity markets never bottoming (they will at one point Adam Smith ALWAYS rules, a good man by the way, in framework of economics his rooted in moral philosophy). The powerful psycopaths think nothing can happen to them? They should think twice. Mussolini ... hanged upsidedown. Hitler.. killed himself. Napoleon .... exiled in a shit hole. Julius Caesar... murdered. Stalin... heart attack in his bunkerized bedroom noone heard his call for help.
Already told ya a few days ago.
Americans cannot DO WITHOUT binging at the malls, and stores for NO more than 2-3yrs,before they go NUTS.
This is a Normal Cycle for them.
Their phylosophy is, Ok, I have done w/out, long enough.
I believe in your argument Zapster. It's well reasoned and reflects the pampered nature of the American consumer.
The American consumer will surprise their retail hosts this year.
Well I do know for a fact that pepper spray sales this Friday were hot and heavy.
90% of people have no idea what is going on in the financial world... I sat around a Thanksgiving table and all they could talk about was the amazing rates they're getting on home equity loans. It's a joke. No clue. One was talking about a bridge loan - imagine carrying two mortgages in this environment?? Wtf?? It's shocking - I guess ignorance is bliss until it bites you in the ass and you beg for help! How could we have known this was coming? It's not our fault we were not prepared... Read the story of the two sets of virgins in the Bible - history repeats over and over and over again!!! Asleep at the switch!!
i had a semi reunion...same thing they all thought we were out of it and things were getting better....wtf
abelcatalyst - you seem to be a prudent man. but - for many (most?) - there is no downside for running up massive mortgage debt and not paying it back. you can live 2 - 3 years without paying a month of mortgage - and home equity is no recourse. in the meantime - whatever money you do have to spend - papa johns delivery while purchasing i-whatever upgrades. and that IS what obama wants. the taxpayers already own FH/FN and will soon own countrywide, and that's about all the mortgages in the US. so obama wants you, fat, happy, buying and keeping china happy also. and markets up. FH/FN are no longer in the market scores. BAC at 5 is no longer in the market scores.
U.S. HOLIDAY SHOPPER SPENT $398.62, RETAIL GROUP SURVEY SAYS
SteveNYC spend = $0
Cowdiddly, well Zero
But remember that in a bankster's world 0 + 0 = more than 0, so it's positive nonetheless
If a crapy plastic trinket falls off on the forced child sweat shop labor table and on dirt floor and there is no American around to hear it , does it still make a noise?
If Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors is there to tell us it's bullish for a housing recovery...you bet it does!
CG, ~$6500.
Still Fly?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iCd6UHR-3I&ob=av2e
Unfortunately, this video is not available in Germany because it may contain music for which GEMA has not granted the respective music rights.
Send me a private message and tell me about it. ok?
Spent some FRNs @ Century Liquor (Danny Wegman empire) on discounted cases of wine - fuck the electronic crap, I want to enjoy some vino for my FRNs.
and i betcha that the default rate on all momo credit purchsaes are realistically in the 18-23% range....so about 20% of the 99% got 100% of there junk "free"
Hulk spent zero. Hulk not going to spend a dime this year, the spectacle has so disgusted me...
Yes, and dont get angry...
Next time I get angry, I'm headed to the coal bin to make diamonds...
funny, I went to a bookstore yesterday and it was filled to the brim with books! people just buying worthless junk this holiday season like margaritaville makers. I remember when i was a kid in the 90's(I'm 26), I asked for books instead of junk or toys. Those days are long gone lol. Amerika is becoming more comatose by the minute. The majority of the populus cares about 4 things 1. what kind of car they drive 2. designer clothes 3. electronics 4. what they can watch on tv
Bullish for power companies then ?
yo stevenyc - i'm a size 16/36 shirt. i likes nice puffy daddy designs. i like pouilly-fusse (i like folly-pussy better). come on big guy. step up. not spending is not american.
Well done: boycott BS consumerism. Now what you have is scrapping the bottom, people so tight that they use the discounts to buy what they could not buy otherwise.
Mkkby - $0. Fuck xmas and all the fake retail holidays.
All the mindless shopping a-holes with no savings are going to be pepper spraying each other for that walmart greeter job when they're 90. Mkkby will be retiring in comfort.
Why worry about tomorrow when there's already so much to worry about today ?!
Inflation
Exactly! New "record" every year!!!
Don't you have to spend your FRNs as soon as you get them in an inflationary environment with negative real savings rates, especially if you're a sheeple and haven't heard of PMs?
Correct.
The mall near me is empty. Both with people and stores. I can't see any increase.
So basically, retailers stuffed their holiday sales into one weekend at a lower margin. Yawn. Back to watching the global economic collapse.
Mike Thielmann, group executive vice president at J.C. Penney, who noted that shoppers were buying gifts and for themselves, and said jewelry was selling well."...maybe someone should clarify for the masses that jewelry gold bought at retail is not an investment.
maybe in a few years... I priced some recently, the price of gold would have to almost tripple for anything crafted with 24K.
Actually, I bought one peice of gold jewelry (on sale) as a hedge against the threat of confiscation. Sure it costs me three times as much, but it's better to have legal "currency" when TSHTF.
I bought my wife a BHG locket and chain. Regularly $279.99, clearance price $27.99. Always shop the clearance items....
Real deep thinker here... Hey idjit -- you can buy the cheapest ingots and melt them into something legal if that ever becomes an issue.
I'm the "deep thinker"? Where can you buy "gold ingots"? If you mean gold bars, those would probably be included when the government outlaws private gold ownership. The melting point of gold is nearly 2000 degrees farenheit. When TSHTF, I'm pretty certain I won't have access to anything that heats gold to that degree. I'm glad you will though.
Peak Oil's fault. Apparently, there isn't enough energy for everyone to go shopping like four years ago. Maybe Howard Schultz will do an interview on CNBC tomorrow and blame the lack of Starbuck's giftcards on diminishing energy supplies and Trav7777 will be vindicated.
Max Fischer, Civis Mundi
I like Robot better. He's much more in-your-face douchey while you're just kinda douchey.
My mom use to say if you can't say something nice about a spacemonkey it's better to say nothing at all.
She hasn't said that in a while but that's another story. (Oh brother...)
trav took him behind the shed and spanked him. These "intellectual" types don't get over it very easily it seems.
The delivery is a bit flat. I would suggest adding a little black humor to spice it up. Less is usually more, though: there's a fine line between trolling and boring.
Micro Center in Rockville, MD the line to the cash regiser was atleast 1/2 mile long. Shop till you drop!
It's the end of the world as we know it!
I refuse to buy anything from these people,"Micro Center", they have nearly non existenent telephone sales help, and to a man/woman, the most rude ,could give a shite less attitudes I have ever encountered.
poor sheeple,... winters coming and they've already been fleeced
I think the attitude is best expressed as "fuck it." Consumers are so deep in the hole credit-wise that it doesn't make any difference if they spend a few hundred more for Christmas, especially when self-gifting.
Agree. Drowning in ten or one hundred feet of water is the same.
I prefer the image of Rev. Jimmy-Joe Jeter, a child Evangelist who was I believe on Mary Hartman Mary Hartman.
As I recall he fried himself while watching himself on TeeVee, playing with himself while sitting in a bubble bath, and the TeeVee fell in the tub.
Way to Go!
When Money Dies:
"The previous fall in the mark had also produced unfortunate results by driving the population in shoals into the shops in a mania of purchasing. While abusing the foreigner for buying out Germany with his profitable rate of exchange, the native has been no whit behind in emptying the shops of their stocks … Many thought that their money would soon have no value whatever and that it must be exchanged for goods while there was yet time: others realised that the purchasing mania would help the falling rate of exchange to raise prices, and they therefore bought on speculative grounds."
I am sure Walmart and Target were able to convert the food stamps and EMT cards of the 300 pound black women trampling around their stores like elephants, so they could purchase dancing with the stars greatest hits and 10 tips how to get on American idol!
Coincidentally, Walmart is turning into quite a large scale bank. Google it.
Eireann go Brach
Let's be fair here. Walmart is a magnet for 300 pound white women too....
Black Friday- proof that China can finance it's military a little longer.
eireann - you got some red. i suspect you are a racist? - tell you what. when i was a kid - band called 'three dog night'. the meaning was a learning experience. i live in the north. i'm going to be needing 'three mama night' soon. those skinny girls just don't do it.
think about the positives.
The damn truth about America.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dX41SkKN0tQ
Most hope their transaction will be lost during the up coming bank holidays and they won't have to pay? Or they were just told they can stay in their home for 6 more months without paying (Ben) the mortgage
Collapsing gasoline prices in L.A. contributing to the retail spending binge, no doubt.
Avg. price $4.29 to $3.70
We were supposed to be $6 - $7/gal. by now.
http://66.70.86.64/ChartServer/ch.gaschart?Country=Canada&Crude=f&Period...$/G
http://66.70.86.64/ChartServer/ch.gaschart?Country=Canada&Crude=f&Period...$/G
Robo, any suggestion on what stocks to buy going into this?
Buy everything as long as it's overinflated with a horrible business plan underwritten by banksters. That is the Robo way!
Whatever comes Up on the most percent up for the day screen on Scottrade.
Stocks of food, Au, Ag, Pb.
He'll tell you after the close tomorrow what plays you should have made at the open.
TALBOTS!!! Retail for dead old ladies!! The Future of this business is bright.
RobotTrader
You obviously don't buy diesel, nitwit.
What's up with diesel? It's running about $1.20 over unl here.
Wait for Romney psyco to bomb Iran...
What is going on ? We have the largest amount of people on food stamps in the history of US. We have more home owner under the water than ever. We have the largest deficit in the history of mankind.
Where do these shoppers come from ? Was food on sale ?
there are no food lines - there are no poor houses,... but the prisons are max'd out @ $250/head daily = out-of-sight/ out-of-mind , and may you and yours sleep comfortably tonight in fantasy land
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yzXGv-kndc
Plummeting food prices also helping out Joe Six.
DBA has crashed from $35 to $29 in 6 months.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosetti...
That means $0.99 McDouble Cheesebugers and Wendy's Jr. Cheeseburger deluxes indefinitely.
Robo. What kind of pop are we going to see in the S&P tomorrow?
Be patient, he'll answer at 4:31pm tomorrow.
huge pop up tomorrow. bennies printing. he had almost 4 days to do so.
learning/thinking can be slow for us retards. the longer this goes on, and them more i have time to observe,
(and the more i realize how poorly my parents trained me by teaching me morals and making me believe in the best for all).
caps on: IT'S NOT BENNIES MONEY - IT'S OUR MONEY. THE MORE HE PRINTS, THE MORE HE AND
HIS FRIENDS MAKE. has anyone stopped him so far? tomorrow - he buys italy and then spain. greece is gone.
will anybody stop him on tuesday? they have to get this into next year so the big bankers get their bonuses.
Just wanted to say... Thanks. Max Fischer is boring while you're a staple. Also, I not sure McDoubles qualify as food but to each his own I guess. I'm forgetting something... er... ehm.. OH YEAH! ... .... .... [junk]
At McDunnage, preserve yourself forever with chemicals! (this does not mean to imply any food content exists in any product offered)
Robo, I think your Mom has tried to explain to you that Commodity ETF's DON"T reflect "real life" or the "real world"....
"Beef Prices in the United States will be leading the food price increases as the holidays get closer and closer according to the USDA's latest Consumer Price Index for Food. Meat prices in general are climbing faster than those of other food categories this year, averaging "8 to 9 percent higher" then in 2010. The latest Comsumer Price Index for Food from the USDA shows that food prices are going up by "3.5 to 4.5 percent, while meats, poultry and fish are up 5.5 to 6.5 percent."
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/latest/Beef-leads-food-price-increase-132738093.html
You are such a disapointment!
Ah the American Dream - buying shit that you don't have the money for to shut up your crying brat.
Whaaaa!
as for myself, i finished all my shoplifting early this year!
I guess people have figured out that a tablet computer, a pair of jeans, and some pots and pans really do represent a better 'store of value' than a piece of predominantly green paper....
i wonder how much was self-gifting on guns, ammo, & pepper spray...
Robot is back. There is hope yet all. lol
Black Friday is the most useless indicator of anything that has to do with the economy. Did you check out the video of near riots at Wal-Mart for a $.2.00 waffle cooker. I could not believe my eyes. What has this country deteriorated to? Lets just see how the sales continue on as the season progresses. Did not notice too many 3 piece suits shopping on Friday.
Man, when this all blows up they are going to hear it on Mars.
Let's just start by assuming that things don't just "blow up".
It is far more typical for things to melt up/down. That being said, a melt down probably would not emanate a sound so I think the amoeba on Mars are safe for the time being.
Next!
wait till those assholes findout it doesnt cook those frozen delicacys..they may have even thought it was one of dem microwaves
Imagine those crazed masses when times truly get hard. If they will trample you to death today for a 2 dollar waffle maker... what in the hell are they going to do when the shelves start running low and no one will accept their credit card as a form of payment?
credit card? food stamps dude.