Blast From The Past: Kyle Bass Was Right About Everything... Again

Tyler Durden's picture

When back in May 2010 Greece was bailed out for the first time, the corrupt authorities and the conflicted media said this is the beginning of a new beginning, and soon everything would be fixed. Nothing has been fixed and everything has gotten far worse. Back then we were among the few to point out that the "bailout" was a travesty and that you can't fix an excess debt problem with more debt, yet that has been precisely the methodology of every bailout ever since the first. Unfortunately, the world is caught in a Keynesian paradigm where this is the only recourse to kick the can, unfortunately the strength of every kick is getting weaker and weaker until one day, the can refuses to move, and it is game over. Looking back at this historic period which sealed the fate of the Keynesian system, nobody has caught the paradoxes of the current broken economic and financial model better than Kyle "Nickels" Bass. Below, for everyone's must read pleasure, we once again present his May 11, 2010 letter titled "The Pattern is Set ? Betting the Bank on a Keynesian Free Lunch" which fuses everything that has happened in Europe since then on the fiscal side, and is about to happen on the monetary one. "From now on, it seems everything will be deemed to be a liquidity crisis that will be met with more "bail?outs" and debt financed spending. This will eventually break traction in a violent way and facilitate severe inflation or even hyperinflation. The one thing the EU taught us this weekend is that paper money will be worth less (maybe much less) in the future." And indeed it will, because more than anything, money is increasingly and rightfully seen as the symbol of the free lunch that Keynesian economics promises, after that "just one final debt hit." Is there much or any hope? Not really, but being prepared while watching the inferno blazes soar higher and higher is the best we can all do.

The all-encompassing summary paragraph:

This weekend, the EU and the IMF effectively went all?in with a bad hand in the highest stakes game of financial poker ever played with the world. We believe the agreement released was nothing more than a Potemkin agreement in order to placate bond investors. In the end (and there will be a reckoning for many countries) nations, including the United States, need to dramatically cut spending and get their fiscal balances in order. Unfortunately, our elected officials are on the hamster wheel of electoral cycles and are not able to make tough decisions like this as they would likely not be re?elected without a “sea change” in public opinion towards government spending and deficits. We are therefore on the path to significant currency devaluation around the world that will likely result in significant inflation. We increased our holdings of gold on Monday morning as well as taking other steps to position ourselves for the most likely outcome over the next few years. Interestingly enough, based upon the market reaction in the last 36 hours, it seems the law of diminishing returns applies to bailouts as well.

Full letter.

 

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Atomizer's picture

Our Kenyan moon cricket has a Nobel Peace Prize solution.

FEAR - Let's Have a War

 

Oh regional Indian's picture

Crazy song. 

That beat is a part of the problem, by the way. 

The Bass is all right though. ;-)

ORI

final-cut-trailer-01/

T1000's picture

And I'll raise you this (where bernack talks about mega QE3, bitches):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZ5TajZYW6Y&feature=player_detailpage#t=2s

You know the game, and we're gonna play it.

FEDbuster's picture

The shit is going to hit the fan, a shit storm is coming:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjMkqFmRGL4

wisefool's picture

From here the next logical URL would be sec.gov or whichever porn site some PhD in enginerring (at former institution) was contracted to "accerlerate" to remove "latency" from the important work that Bubba needs.

In leui of facts we can always just use the second to last bubble as a discussion point. The housing bubble, starring Robert Rubin as Community ReInvestment  Actor-Homemaker (Monica) XO. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxO8_lOOra8&feature=relmfu

Before you ask, the last bubble should be obvious with less sodium.

madbomber's picture

 

lol thats one of the top10 best ever clips in history.

  but please dont take away my fluoride.   im on a strict iq lowering regime and

dont want any interference.    going for broke.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dr. Richard Head's picture

"It allready started in the city.  Surburbia will be just as easy.  There's so many of us.  Let's have a war - jack up the DOW Jones - We'll start a NEW Jersey" - Let's Have a War - A Perfect Circle - Maynard

Xploregon's picture

I just watched the BBC Kyle Bass interview as linked by "bernorange". Thank you for that. Clearly it's the interview that many ZH readers refered to early on this week commenting on how the acerbic female BBC interviewer kept so rudely inturrupting Bass. IF she would have shut her kidney pie hole long enough to allow Bass to complete or expand on his thinking, we all very well might have heard and learned from one of the true visionaries of this golbal debacle what is, what happened and, what shall be.

I'd like to lock the BBC interviewer in my garage with Chris Mathews and leave the car running.

cosmictrainwreck's picture

"kidney pie hole" HA! hahahaha..........

PulauHantu29's picture

Great interview. BBC reporter shows the intense hostility MSM has against those who understand the jig. Luckily for readers people like Bass educate and help inform rather then distort and confuse.  No wonder U of Texas has him as one of their advisors.

citrine's picture

Unluckily for viewers, Kyle Bass had to deal with an interrogator-in-training, instead of an interviewer, which limited his ability to educate and inform. 

Winston Smith 2009's picture

A financial genius who can visualize and explain economic reality as easily as Einstein could envision general relativity.  Here's a keeper quote from him near the end of the interview:

Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell. -- Kyle Bass

FEDbuster's picture

I have a feeling there will be many "Bassisms" to compile:

"You can't hate the mirror because you're ugly"

Tom Green Swedish's picture

Kyle Bass is an idiot. Who in their right mind would buy 20 million nickels for scrap. Not only is it illegal to deface currency why would you waste the much production to turn it into scrap. Why would someone want to destroy something that someone else produced?  How is the scrap value worth more than the actual value when nobody in the world is buying commodities except for China? China overspent their stimulus money and cannot build for infinity.

How can commodities rise 400 percent over 10 years if growth and inflation (25 percent since 2000 of the dollar) is not even near that amount?

Commodities have rallied 400 percent in the last 10 years, and population has only increased 25 percent (again the 25 percent number same as inflation of the dollar).  The speculators have made their easy money and thats about to end.

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=commodity-price-index&m...

 

Don't you think its a little irrational for an Australian miner to make $200,000 dollars a year?

 

In case you haven't figured it out Operation Twist was designed to burst the commodity bubble.  The MF Global and CME thing was just the writing on the wall.  The parabolic rise in commodities in the 2000's is the new housing bubble.  The bubble burst will be a good thing.  It will leave much more money in our pockets. Anybody who buys gold is greedy.

 

Look at the CMD versus DJP charts. DJP has dropped below its 500 day moving average. Very Bearish.  The 10 year commodity rally is about to end in a big way.

Jay's picture

Kyle Bass is a genious. Where did he say he was going to melt them to scrap? The nickels have more value, just as the silver coins of the early 60s do, as coins rather than scrap because they're more recognizable that way. In an inflation, their value will go up because the metal will be worth more in relation to a paper dollar. In a deflation, their value will never be less than 5 cents even though the underlying metal may be worth much less in relation to a paper dollar. In a hyperinflation, governments often devalue their paper currency 10:1 or more. Usually, they don't bother with the change, just the paper money. So it's win, win, win. He's protected his savings in three different environments for practically free.

Tom Green Swedish's picture

I can tell you are trying to sound smart but its not working. Number 1 Fail - you cannot nickels in an investment vehicle so therefore they cannot gain interest anywhere. Number 2 Fail - Scrapping Currency is illegal (And yes that is his motive). Number 3 Fail - What if the value of the metal declines? Its not a protection against inflation in anyway.  Number 4 Fail - If the paper currency is worth less then the change is worth less too.  Number 5 Fail - USA is in the best position in the World, the Chinese and Indians have no hope without the USA.

 

Biggest Fail - The guy sits around and disses his own country comparing it to Zimbabwe. That is just sad.

Second Biggest Fail - He keeps on saying over and over again Japan's economy is doomed. Not likely. I have seen nothing in the news that says the Japanese will default, and its been a year now.

 

I think I'll start a Kyle Bass Hayman Capital short fund.  His recent MTG investment has already lost 4 percent and net income per employee is -534,000 dollars. Total garbage investment.

Bendromeda Strain's picture

Tom Green shorting Kyle Bass is nothing compared to that epic play when Gene Pool shorted Tom Green.

Hakuna Matata!

madbomber's picture

 

  I think you would be a good cyber mate :)

about me: physically fit and in my early 30s. 

  After amassing a fortune online , now looking to SOLIDIFY my assets.

PM me.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bendromeda Strain's picture

The parabolic rise in commodities in the 2000's is the new housing bubble.

The most demonstrably foolish thing I have read on ZH.

FEDbuster's picture

They are not making any more gold or oil, and both are getting harder to find. The debt and fiat currency bubble continues to grow. Electronic recording of debt and currency to infinity and beyond!!!

bigun's picture

the bitch needs to SHUT THE FUCK UP

Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Good call. Maiden kicks.

This article nails the crux of the problem, we have a ruling class that will not willingly give up power in order to correct course and avoid the wall. This is a recipe for the status quo, and thus eventual disaster.

History has shown that these types will ride the fiery wreck right over a cliff because they know that worst case they end up in the same place they would if they passed the reigns willingly. However, they hope maybe, just maybe, they can find a means to avoid their demise along the way.

4th Turning Bitchez...

 

Big Slick's picture

"Our Kenyan moon cricket has a Nobel Peace Prize solution."

Just as our Energy czar had a Nobel Physics Prize solution.

 

And still the world cares of nothing but the latest on Demi and Ashton.   I swear, this is how Noah must have felt - after the ark was built but before the rain began.

knukles's picture

At God's command, the Moon Cricket sorts through life of all kind upon the face of the earth, selecting the species, two by two until he has finished excepting that final selection, that of man himself.  Choosing himself, his wife and Jimmy Carter, God hisself responds...

             ....ipse miscebitur

philipat's picture

Actually, Keynsian economics is getting a bum rap here. What Keynes ACTUALLY prescribed was that Governments should establish reserves during times of surplusues (Aka "The good times") and then spend those reserves during times of defecits (Aka "The Bad times").

Unfortunately, our political "Elites" got hold of this and, as usual, completely fucked it up so as to interpret Keynes as "Spend, spend, spend". The idea of actually running surpluses and saving for a rainy day (Aka "Common sense") during the expansionary phase of the business cycle was kind of beyond the brain power of our corrupt and conflicted politicians.

Hugh_Jorgan's picture

You are right. The neo-Keyensians are as bad as the neo-Darwinists. They are too stupid to understand the WHOLE theory of their respective messiahs. But, like children they latch onto the easy bits that are out on the surface and they try to make the entire system fit those ideas. Unfortunately, this leads to experimentation on all of us using incomplete and therefore, unsound, methodologies. Which, of course, invites disaster.

Guten Tag, Herr Disaster, we've been expecting you...

Ropingdown's picture

The problem has nothing to do with Keynes.  A counter-cyclical national finance policy was abandoned years ago.  After all, you cannot seriously propose savings if it means cutting off the development of fabulous new weapons on the one hand, or terrific innovations in medicine and surgery to which every non-saving poor soul has a right!  How can you put a price on something as precious as innovative weapons or endless free mobility-providing scooters and life-extending medical procedures.  Now it's true we don't technically need new and better H-Bombs or subs.  And it's somewhat apparent that any nation that expects to give away 450,000 dollars worth of surgery, hospitalization, and medicine to those who never saved for it is going to go broke giving new knees and lungs to poor folk.  So you see we can't go counter-cyclical though it might save our economy.  It is just stunning to reflect, with a wholly joyful heart and inspired rededication to work,  how many of the very nice homes in my neighborhood are owned by physicians and (defense) technology executives who never invented anything,  which only proves that these two industries must be good for an economy.  They pay very well, don't they?

cossack55's picture

I wonder if Kyle has cottages for rent on his ranch.  I have many nickels.

Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

+ 1 on the nickles...

Great thing is... In a pinch, you can slag bullets out of them...

redpill's picture

I always enjoy listening to this guy get interviewed.  He always stays very calm as he tries to educate whatever unqualified idiot they have asking the questions.

Freddie's picture

+1

Kyle is very calm and he knows his stuff.  A lot of hedge fund managers are front running snd insider trading scum like Raj, Stevie C and other scum.  Kyle is like a calmer American version of Hugh Hendry.  Hugh hammers them with condescension and sarcasm.  Alabama's own Jim Rogers is more like Hugh calling politicians morons.  Mucho respect to Kyle Bass.     

Chuck Walla's picture

Its a lot easier to be calm when you know whats going on and have a few million in the bank and a couple ounces in the vault.

CrazyCooter's picture

If I am not mistaken, Kyles ranch engages in much charity for service members who come home from combat and face difficulties. So, not something I would put high on my list to pick a fight with.

Regards,

Cooter

Carlyle Groupie's picture

May I borrow from the great Trav7777 youtube video?

"You don't know how, mind fucked you are, do you?"

.gov will control it's assets, human and otherwise.

Ropingdown's picture

Bass also has some very serious partners in the ranch investment.  Texas is Kyle's kind of place and nobody's going to bother the partnership if trouble comes.

BidnessMan's picture

I have cases of 7.62 x 39mm to help protect many nickels ....

Big Slick's picture

!!! Listen to this man!!! 

Whenever 'it' happens, the heavy grey stuff will be more important that the heavy yellow stuff. (Big Slick?  hint: my icon-47)

Burn this equation in your mind:  AU - PB = MINE FOR THE TAKING!!!!!

Seriously compadres - if you truly believe what we sling on this site (I do, for the most part) and you don't have a firearm in the house, you are as bad an ostrich as the blind sheep populace you make fun of.  Go to Dick's Sporting Goods today and buy a Remington 870 or a Mossberg 500!!   300 bucks (9 Silver Eagles).

 

EINSILVERGUY's picture

Add the tactical ops stock for and extra 4 ASE's. worth it.