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Blast From The Past: Kyle Bass Was Right About Everything... Again

Tyler Durden's picture





 

When back in May 2010 Greece was bailed out for the first time, the corrupt authorities and the conflicted media said this is the beginning of a new beginning, and soon everything would be fixed. Nothing has been fixed and everything has gotten far worse. Back then we were among the few to point out that the "bailout" was a travesty and that you can't fix an excess debt problem with more debt, yet that has been precisely the methodology of every bailout ever since the first. Unfortunately, the world is caught in a Keynesian paradigm where this is the only recourse to kick the can, unfortunately the strength of every kick is getting weaker and weaker until one day, the can refuses to move, and it is game over. Looking back at this historic period which sealed the fate of the Keynesian system, nobody has caught the paradoxes of the current broken economic and financial model better than Kyle "Nickels" Bass. Below, for everyone's must read pleasure, we once again present his May 11, 2010 letter titled "The Pattern is Set ? Betting the Bank on a Keynesian Free Lunch" which fuses everything that has happened in Europe since then on the fiscal side, and is about to happen on the monetary one. "From now on, it seems everything will be deemed to be a liquidity crisis that will be met with more "bail?outs" and debt financed spending. This will eventually break traction in a violent way and facilitate severe inflation or even hyperinflation. The one thing the EU taught us this weekend is that paper money will be worth less (maybe much less) in the future." And indeed it will, because more than anything, money is increasingly and rightfully seen as the symbol of the free lunch that Keynesian economics promises, after that "just one final debt hit." Is there much or any hope? Not really, but being prepared while watching the inferno blazes soar higher and higher is the best we can all do.

The all-encompassing summary paragraph:

This weekend, the EU and the IMF effectively went all?in with a bad hand in the highest stakes game of financial poker ever played with the world. We believe the agreement released was nothing more than a Potemkin agreement in order to placate bond investors. In the end (and there will be a reckoning for many countries) nations, including the United States, need to dramatically cut spending and get their fiscal balances in order. Unfortunately, our elected officials are on the hamster wheel of electoral cycles and are not able to make tough decisions like this as they would likely not be re?elected without a “sea change” in public opinion towards government spending and deficits. We are therefore on the path to significant currency devaluation around the world that will likely result in significant inflation. We increased our holdings of gold on Monday morning as well as taking other steps to position ourselves for the most likely outcome over the next few years. Interestingly enough, based upon the market reaction in the last 36 hours, it seems the law of diminishing returns applies to bailouts as well.

Full letter.

 

 


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Sat, 11/19/2011 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Our Kenyan moon cricket has a Nobel Peace Prize solution.

FEAR - Let's Have a War

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:04 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Crazy song. 

That beat is a part of the problem, by the way. 

The Bass is all right though. ;-)

ORI

final-cut-trailer-01/

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:25 | Link to Comment CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

I raise you this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hutUnGwHFlQ

Regards,

Cooter

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:54 | Link to Comment T1000
T1000's picture

And I'll raise you this (where bernack talks about mega QE3, bitches):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZ5TajZYW6Y&feature=player_detailpage#t=2s

You know the game, and we're gonna play it.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 14:28 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

The shit is going to hit the fan, a shit storm is coming:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjMkqFmRGL4

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 16:51 | Link to Comment Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

I can smell it!

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 16:57 | Link to Comment Mr Pink
Sat, 11/19/2011 - 17:59 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

From here the next logical URL would be sec.gov or whichever porn site some PhD in enginerring (at former institution) was contracted to "accerlerate" to remove "latency" from the important work that Bubba needs.

In leui of facts we can always just use the second to last bubble as a discussion point. The housing bubble, starring Robert Rubin as Community ReInvestment  Actor-Homemaker (Monica) XO. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxO8_lOOra8&feature=relmfu

Before you ask, the last bubble should be obvious with less sodium.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 06:08 | Link to Comment madbomber
madbomber's picture

 

lol thats one of the top10 best ever clips in history.

  but please dont take away my fluoride.   im on a strict iq lowering regime and

dont want any interference.    going for broke.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 05:59 | Link to Comment madbomber
madbomber's picture

 

i knew it!

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 20:39 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

"It allready started in the city.  Surburbia will be just as easy.  There's so many of us.  Let's have a war - jack up the DOW Jones - We'll start a NEW Jersey" - Let's Have a War - A Perfect Circle - Maynard

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:14 | Link to Comment bernorange
bernorange's picture

Kyle's recent BBC interview:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-F_QF1XTXI

He's sharp as a tack.

www.pmbug.com

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Xploregon
Xploregon's picture

I just watched the BBC Kyle Bass interview as linked by "bernorange". Thank you for that. Clearly it's the interview that many ZH readers refered to early on this week commenting on how the acerbic female BBC interviewer kept so rudely inturrupting Bass. IF she would have shut her kidney pie hole long enough to allow Bass to complete or expand on his thinking, we all very well might have heard and learned from one of the true visionaries of this golbal debacle what is, what happened and, what shall be.

I'd like to lock the BBC interviewer in my garage with Chris Mathews and leave the car running.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 15:21 | Link to Comment SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

BASS KICKS ASS!!!

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 16:53 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

"kidney pie hole" HA! hahahaha..........

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 15:13 | Link to Comment PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Great interview. BBC reporter shows the intense hostility MSM has against those who understand the jig. Luckily for readers people like Bass educate and help inform rather then distort and confuse.  No wonder U of Texas has him as one of their advisors.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 17:29 | Link to Comment citrine
citrine's picture

Unluckily for viewers, Kyle Bass had to deal with an interrogator-in-training, instead of an interviewer, which limited his ability to educate and inform. 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 17:32 | Link to Comment Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

A financial genius who can visualize and explain economic reality as easily as Einstein could envision general relativity.  Here's a keeper quote from him near the end of the interview:

Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell. -- Kyle Bass

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 20:08 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

I have a feeling there will be many "Bassisms" to compile:

"You can't hate the mirror because you're ugly"

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 23:43 | Link to Comment Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

Kyle Bass is an idiot. Who in their right mind would buy 20 million nickels for scrap. Not only is it illegal to deface currency why would you waste the much production to turn it into scrap. Why would someone want to destroy something that someone else produced?  How is the scrap value worth more than the actual value when nobody in the world is buying commodities except for China? China overspent their stimulus money and cannot build for infinity.

How can commodities rise 400 percent over 10 years if growth and inflation (25 percent since 2000 of the dollar) is not even near that amount?

Commodities have rallied 400 percent in the last 10 years, and population has only increased 25 percent (again the 25 percent number same as inflation of the dollar).  The speculators have made their easy money and thats about to end.

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=commodity-price-index&m...

 

Don't you think its a little irrational for an Australian miner to make $200,000 dollars a year?

 

In case you haven't figured it out Operation Twist was designed to burst the commodity bubble.  The MF Global and CME thing was just the writing on the wall.  The parabolic rise in commodities in the 2000's is the new housing bubble.  The bubble burst will be a good thing.  It will leave much more money in our pockets. Anybody who buys gold is greedy.

 

Look at the CMD versus DJP charts. DJP has dropped below its 500 day moving average. Very Bearish.  The 10 year commodity rally is about to end in a big way.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 02:22 | Link to Comment Jay
Jay's picture

Kyle Bass is a genious. Where did he say he was going to melt them to scrap? The nickels have more value, just as the silver coins of the early 60s do, as coins rather than scrap because they're more recognizable that way. In an inflation, their value will go up because the metal will be worth more in relation to a paper dollar. In a deflation, their value will never be less than 5 cents even though the underlying metal may be worth much less in relation to a paper dollar. In a hyperinflation, governments often devalue their paper currency 10:1 or more. Usually, they don't bother with the change, just the paper money. So it's win, win, win. He's protected his savings in three different environments for practically free.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 05:53 | Link to Comment Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

I can tell you are trying to sound smart but its not working. Number 1 Fail - you cannot nickels in an investment vehicle so therefore they cannot gain interest anywhere. Number 2 Fail - Scrapping Currency is illegal (And yes that is his motive). Number 3 Fail - What if the value of the metal declines? Its not a protection against inflation in anyway.  Number 4 Fail - If the paper currency is worth less then the change is worth less too.  Number 5 Fail - USA is in the best position in the World, the Chinese and Indians have no hope without the USA.

 

Biggest Fail - The guy sits around and disses his own country comparing it to Zimbabwe. That is just sad.

Second Biggest Fail - He keeps on saying over and over again Japan's economy is doomed. Not likely. I have seen nothing in the news that says the Japanese will default, and its been a year now.

 

I think I'll start a Kyle Bass Hayman Capital short fund.  His recent MTG investment has already lost 4 percent and net income per employee is -534,000 dollars. Total garbage investment.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 08:22 | Link to Comment Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Tom Green shorting Kyle Bass is nothing compared to that epic play when Gene Pool shorted Tom Green.

Hakuna Matata!

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 06:41 | Link to Comment madbomber
madbomber's picture

 

  I think you would be a good cyber mate :)

about me: physically fit and in my early 30s. 

  After amassing a fortune online , now looking to SOLIDIFY my assets.

PM me.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 08:24 | Link to Comment Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

The parabolic rise in commodities in the 2000's is the new housing bubble.

The most demonstrably foolish thing I have read on ZH.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 13:39 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

They are not making any more gold or oil, and both are getting harder to find. The debt and fiat currency bubble continues to grow. Electronic recording of debt and currency to infinity and beyond!!!

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 12:50 | Link to Comment bigun
bigun's picture

the bitch needs to SHUT THE FUCK UP

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 21:56 | Link to Comment Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Good call. Maiden kicks.

This article nails the crux of the problem, we have a ruling class that will not willingly give up power in order to correct course and avoid the wall. This is a recipe for the status quo, and thus eventual disaster.

History has shown that these types will ride the fiery wreck right over a cliff because they know that worst case they end up in the same place they would if they passed the reigns willingly. However, they hope maybe, just maybe, they can find a means to avoid their demise along the way.

4th Turning Bitchez...

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 17:09 | Link to Comment Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

"Our Kenyan moon cricket has a Nobel Peace Prize solution."

Just as our Energy czar had a Nobel Physics Prize solution.

 

And still the world cares of nothing but the latest on Demi and Ashton.   I swear, this is how Noah must have felt - after the ark was built but before the rain began.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 18:46 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

At God's command, the Moon Cricket sorts through life of all kind upon the face of the earth, selecting the species, two by two until he has finished excepting that final selection, that of man himself.  Choosing himself, his wife and Jimmy Carter, God hisself responds...

             ....ipse miscebitur

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 20:53 | Link to Comment Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

Cubits, bitchez.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 17:57 | Link to Comment covert
covert's picture

why not read Ludwig Von Mises?

http://expose2.wordpress.com

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 19:47 | Link to Comment philipat
philipat's picture

Actually, Keynsian economics is getting a bum rap here. What Keynes ACTUALLY prescribed was that Governments should establish reserves during times of surplusues (Aka "The good times") and then spend those reserves during times of defecits (Aka "The Bad times").

Unfortunately, our political "Elites" got hold of this and, as usual, completely fucked it up so as to interpret Keynes as "Spend, spend, spend". The idea of actually running surpluses and saving for a rainy day (Aka "Common sense") during the expansionary phase of the business cycle was kind of beyond the brain power of our corrupt and conflicted politicians.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 22:04 | Link to Comment Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

You are right. The neo-Keyensians are as bad as the neo-Darwinists. They are too stupid to understand the WHOLE theory of their respective messiahs. But, like children they latch onto the easy bits that are out on the surface and they try to make the entire system fit those ideas. Unfortunately, this leads to experimentation on all of us using incomplete and therefore, unsound, methodologies. Which, of course, invites disaster.

Guten Tag, Herr Disaster, we've been expecting you...

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 01:35 | Link to Comment Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

The problem has nothing to do with Keynes.  A counter-cyclical national finance policy was abandoned years ago.  After all, you cannot seriously propose savings if it means cutting off the development of fabulous new weapons on the one hand, or terrific innovations in medicine and surgery to which every non-saving poor soul has a right!  How can you put a price on something as precious as innovative weapons or endless free mobility-providing scooters and life-extending medical procedures.  Now it's true we don't technically need new and better H-Bombs or subs.  And it's somewhat apparent that any nation that expects to give away 450,000 dollars worth of surgery, hospitalization, and medicine to those who never saved for it is going to go broke giving new knees and lungs to poor folk.  So you see we can't go counter-cyclical though it might save our economy.  It is just stunning to reflect, with a wholly joyful heart and inspired rededication to work,  how many of the very nice homes in my neighborhood are owned by physicians and (defense) technology executives who never invented anything,  which only proves that these two industries must be good for an economy.  They pay very well, don't they?

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 11:40 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

I wonder if Kyle has cottages for rent on his ranch.  I have many nickels.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 11:59 | Link to Comment Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

+ 1 on the nickles...

Great thing is... In a pinch, you can slag bullets out of them...

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:20 | Link to Comment Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture
Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:07 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

I always enjoy listening to this guy get interviewed.  He always stays very calm as he tries to educate whatever unqualified idiot they have asking the questions.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 17:10 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

+1

Kyle is very calm and he knows his stuff.  A lot of hedge fund managers are front running snd insider trading scum like Raj, Stevie C and other scum.  Kyle is like a calmer American version of Hugh Hendry.  Hugh hammers them with condescension and sarcasm.  Alabama's own Jim Rogers is more like Hugh calling politicians morons.  Mucho respect to Kyle Bass.     

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 17:37 | Link to Comment Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Its a lot easier to be calm when you know whats going on and have a few million in the bank and a couple ounces in the vault.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

I'm thinking Waco,TX and The FBI.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:29 | Link to Comment CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

If I am not mistaken, Kyles ranch engages in much charity for service members who come home from combat and face difficulties. So, not something I would put high on my list to pick a fight with.

Regards,

Cooter

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:43 | Link to Comment Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

May I borrow from the great Trav7777 youtube video?

"You don't know how, mind fucked you are, do you?"

.gov will control it's assets, human and otherwise.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 02:18 | Link to Comment Cliff Claven Cheers
Cliff Claven Cheers's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnpEI3njoeo

 

Trav7777 youtube video

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 01:39 | Link to Comment Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

Bass also has some very serious partners in the ranch investment.  Texas is Kyle's kind of place and nobody's going to bother the partnership if trouble comes.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:00 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

I have cases of 7.62 x 39mm to help protect many nickels ....

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 17:23 | Link to Comment Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

!!! Listen to this man!!! 

Whenever 'it' happens, the heavy grey stuff will be more important that the heavy yellow stuff. (Big Slick?  hint: my icon-47)

Burn this equation in your mind:  AU - PB = MINE FOR THE TAKING!!!!!

Seriously compadres - if you truly believe what we sling on this site (I do, for the most part) and you don't have a firearm in the house, you are as bad an ostrich as the blind sheep populace you make fun of.  Go to Dick's Sporting Goods today and buy a Remington 870 or a Mossberg 500!!   300 bucks (9 Silver Eagles).

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 20:45 | Link to Comment EINSILVERGUY
EINSILVERGUY's picture

Add the tactical ops stock for and extra 4 ASE's. worth it.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 05:17 | Link to Comment fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Big SLick,

AU - PB = MINE FOR THE TAKING!!!!! 

              First time I have seen this equation and believe it is the only valid one concerning physical ownership.

 

+10,000.

 

 

 

 

 

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 08:30 | Link to Comment Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Am I reading it wrong? Sounds to me like you are saying you will be doing some looting?

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 11:09 | Link to Comment Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

"Am I reading it wrong? Sounds to me like you are saying you will be doing some looting?"

:) Not in the least, Bendromeda! (STRONG EMPHASIS!!) - and to you too Big Ching.  Just trying to make a point.  Heaven only knows what's coming.   Make plans to protect your life before your fortune.  I think that's lost on a lot of people in these discussions.  They have no clue what's on the horizon. 

Once again, if you do not own a firearm, you are a fool. 

You can own a simple 12- or 20-gague with ammo by sunset today.

(If it makes you nervous - keep the thing locked in its unopened box in the attic)

Imagine needing one and being 600th in line at the mall the day after trashcans start flying through our windows.

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:48 | Link to Comment The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

Ya, why don't you just paint a giant red bullseye on your back that sez......"Come and get me."    Nooooooo thanks.    Ya, 'Wacofying' your residence/compound is about as stupid as it gets.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

Hmmm... my kids are starving and I have no food.  Should I rob Bidness Man or Big Ching??  Decisions, decisions....

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 22:31 | Link to Comment The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

Rob neither.  You very well might get shot.  Dead.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 08:33 | Link to Comment Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

We can hope so - some real dirtbags on this site lately, but it is good to be reminded that some soulless "preppers" will quickly turn into the "zombies" they so obsess over the moment things go bad - for them.

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 11:11 | Link to Comment Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

See my item above - not me.  You may be missing my point.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 11:41 | Link to Comment Requiredwhen
Sat, 11/19/2011 - 11:43 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

FLIGHT OF PRECARIUS

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:14 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Awesome WB7, one of your best in my estimation.

ORI

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:39 | Link to Comment The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

wow, I really dig this William :) Thank you for all you do!

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:54 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

That's beautiful.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:08 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I concur it's 1 of your best with my 5 cents worth 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:17 | Link to Comment The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

Brilliant!!!

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 19:21 | Link to Comment caerus
caerus's picture

you never fail to impress william...very nice!

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Antifederalist
Antifederalist's picture

"Don't blame the mirror because you are ugly"   Kyle Bass.  Destined to be a classic.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:03 | Link to Comment I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

so the wall of money is here.....hyperinflation OR a ton of inflation with a gold price on pluto is the 2 choices

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:56 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Dont count out german resolve to prevent excessive money printing.

20 billion a week or so is just enough to japanify, maybe. It certainly wont cause hyperinflation.

The germans have never wavered. Why do people assume they will allow excessive printing?

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 16:51 | Link to Comment nuinut
nuinut's picture

They will not print.

ECB has been unequivocal on this from the start.

This is exactly why (physical) gold will be revalued much higher.

This is why they mark their gold reserves to market on their own balance sheet every quarter.

The euro is not backed by debt, it is backed by whatever you can purchase with it. The ECB openly value it by marking their gold to market.

 

The Euro is worth exactly how much gold the market says it is.


This is a problem for the market to solve, and the ECB has always been prepared for this eventuality; hell, this is what he euro was created for: this revaluation of gold.

The ECB simply want the euro to survive as a medium of exchange, and they would prefer the market devalued the euro primarily against physical gold.

Its a big devaluation, but this is everything devaluing against gold, thus avoiding many of the ravages of hyperinflation, as gold absorbs most of the blow.

 

Can't do this with the dollar, sorry.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 20:31 | Link to Comment margaris
margaris's picture

fantastic comment +1

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:10 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Remember this: they'll print and then insitute and enforce wage and price controls across the board. It's been tried before, with poor results, but this is truly an existential crisis and their resolve will be commensurate. Of course in time it too will fail

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:49 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

the euro is now destined for the ash heap of history sooner rather than later. it must be replaced with something lest trade flows seize up which is what Europe (i think) is trying to prevent now. you will know if there is a real crisis should border crossings be in actuality closed. Germany is in the throes of a full financial panic in the sense that they've gone from saving Greece which they said they would do to saving their banks at all costs. Everyone else is now following suit. again: the end game is not in doubt. "gold, gold, gold, gold, gold" and "hide your ill gotten gains in Switzerland." needless to say "the country is left instaneously destitute." Greece still needs saving here! Needless to say the only hope is a "bail in" now....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hURjXxbyQ9k&feature=player_detailpage

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:57 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

They'll repace the Euro with a new currency, the Esperanto which will be exchangeable at 3:1 (basically a 66% haircut). Then they'll peg it to the dollar. 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 16:58 | Link to Comment nuinut
nuinut's picture

Dream on.

 

There's the little matter of gold being fixed to the dollar at $42.22/oz.

The dollar fares worst in the coming adjustment.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 15:25 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

the german's are nobody's fool - they see what has happened in american markets by way of hft - they're fully aware of the "financial services modernization act' of 1998 {[coincidence of date inacted ?] [literally killing the glass-steagall act]} - contrary to most views, and beliefs ,... is their strong opposition of having the 'ecb' turning into a 'frb', and the enslavement it has caused to the american cititzenry - also the german's want an inactment/ passage of a 'financial transaction tax {[ftt][tobin tax]} which undoubtably will hurt the london banks - merkel, knows all this, and has great hindsight - thus realizing that after bailing-out all the weak sisters will eventually lead to crippling the caretaker [that being the german's] - so in finality,... if the big bond[ghouls]holders refuse to take haircuts, it's adios amigo - god bless you angela

ps. Was mochten Sie?

ps2   Konnen Sie mir helfen?   - Danke!

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:05 | Link to Comment Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

She got her looks from her father. He's a plastic surgeon.

~GROUCHO MARX

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:08 | Link to Comment end da fed
end da fed's picture

agreed. ZH needs a Hall of Fame for quotes...Hugh Hendry's "I would recommend you panic."  is right up there too.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 11:45 | Link to Comment rambler6421
rambler6421's picture

Where does Bass hold his gold?  I knew he took delivery, but where is at?  At the bullion banks?

 

libertarian86.blogspot.com

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 11:57 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Where does Bass hold his gold?

In his desk drawer...

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 11:59 | Link to Comment Random_Robert
Random_Robert's picture

What a stupid fucking question.

Where is YOUR Gold?

Kyle's is in the strongbox under the left side of his bed (the one with the sticky note on it that says "there is nothing valuable in here" to deter potential thieves), and the key to the strongbox is under the soap dish in the hall bathroom....

Gee, I wonder where Kyle Bass keeps his guns...?

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:24 | Link to Comment rambler6421
rambler6421's picture

The point is his gold safe?  

I was reading that it was in a bullion bank (I think HSBC).  So if HSBC goes under, will he get screwed over. 

 

After reading what happened to Celente, I wouldn't be surprised if people can't get their sh** from the banks when the economy implodes.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:33 | Link to Comment Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

High profile gold gets stolen or otherwise confiscated. Low profile gold survives.

Get it? Mr. Bass will learn a hard lesson as Bennie watches and giggles.

Vanity has a downside.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:38 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Kyle has..

1. off grid capability.

2. Plenty of guns.. Larue is where? and Kyle is what to Larue? if you dont know what Larue is.. then just kill yourself.

3. Kyle's Gold will be just fine.. mostly becuase Kyle can get his Gold thru force if need be.. and if you think Bank Vaults in Texas are any less safe that Fort Knox.. you are lying to yourself.

4 I am from FL so the only two things come out of Texas.. George Bush and Kyle Bass.. Pick a Team! and stick with it.

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:11 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

There's a third thing that comes out of Texas but uh I can't uh....the third thing out of Texas, uh, Bush, Bass...Bass and, let's see. I can't. The third one, I can't. Sorry. Oops.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:55 | Link to Comment HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Is it the EPA?

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 14:18 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

redpill

Different BASS.

Kyle is not related the Ft Worth Bass family.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 14:37 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Ted Nugent is currently residing on his ranch in TX (near Bush in Waco).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCHtw6WbbnM

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 14:56 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Say what you want about Ted, but I want him on my side when we get to Mad Max!

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 18:41 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

Nugent is actually a moron. You  don't want him anywhere near you if/when the SHTF. I can still see him cutting into his thigh with a chainsaw whilst acting like a jackass in front of a bunch of kids...

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 22:51 | Link to Comment The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

Ya, the smartest rich men in all of Texas are invisible.    Loud, brash, and thinking you're invincible because you're fucking rich and famous, will get your ass shot up when the SHTF surer than shit in a Chicago stockyard, son.   Uber-secure-defensive compound regardless.

Bass may be micro-smart but telegraphing yourself up as Fort Sumter is macro-dumber than a box of hammers.    I don't know about Nugent being real smart though.   

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 16:32 | Link to Comment rodocostarica
rodocostarica's picture

Ron Paul. He is not  the third one though. He is the first one.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

The only things that come from Texas are steers and queers. And I don't see any horns on you...

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 08:50 | Link to Comment Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Glenn Beck is not moving to Texas to be a cattle rancher....

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 22:01 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

That's Perry funny, er, very punny....whatever...

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 15:30 | Link to Comment Atlas Shrugging
Atlas Shrugging's picture

"if you dont know what Larue is.. then just kill yourself."

Too damn funny, I spit beer on my screen!  And yes, they make damn fine gear - Semper Fi ....

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 19:23 | Link to Comment Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

You only own what you can defend.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 14:13 | Link to Comment Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

At this point, if you have enough weight, you might not be able to get your PMs now.

If you don't hold it - you don't own it.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:12 | Link to Comment giddy
giddy's picture

Oh snap!  What makes me really happy about Kyle's guns and gold is that when the chit hits the fan, maybe a few reasoned-folks (like Kyle) will actually survive.  Maybe outlast those fukers like Soros.  Its a scenario that gives me  "hope" that things will actually "change"...   

Sun, 11/20/2011 - 13:54 | Link to Comment mkkby
mkkby's picture

I don't mind if the evil politicians or even the banksters survive.  I just hope people who say "oh snap" all perish from this earth.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:35 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Kyle keeps his guns in a shoe box next to the strong box with a sharpie note: Even less in here.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:00 | Link to Comment bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

32 paces SE from the moat (avoiding the snares, trip wires, and other assorted booby traps) and then 20 paces NE toward the armory.

dig 5 feet at that point, careful to avoid the assorted posted snipers and  without detonating explosives at 3 1/2 feet.

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:42 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

bigdumbnugly ,

Yes Sir.. and that map is only good if they got thru the nieghbors too.

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:07 | Link to Comment bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

do you mean the neighbors with the ill-tempered rottweilers or the ones with that impressive array of blowtorches?

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:36 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

And laser beams mounted on their head.  Always with the laser beams.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 14:26 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Frickin' laser beams that is

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 19:31 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

On frickin bad tempered sea bass..

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 17:55 | Link to Comment CatoTheElder
CatoTheElder's picture

The lasers are mounted on their AR-15's and M107s, silly.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:32 | Link to Comment CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

I believe it was all melted and cast into the shape of a Bevo. They roll it out on the field at the foot ball games for the crowd. Always a pleaser.

Regards,

Cooter

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 11:46 | Link to Comment Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

All this paranoia really makes me even more paranoid.  Time to go out and buy more canned food...

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:09 | Link to Comment wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

it has been paranoid since 100years and totally ludicrous since 40years. It is just unfolding and getting visible these days.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 18:52 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Does Spam count as food?

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 11:49 | Link to Comment Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Glad to see Kyle include Japan. The fundamentals and demographics for Japan are unbelievable bad. But they have been so bad and getting worse for so long, people believe they can go on forever. The Laws of Physics apply to a Perpetual Motion Machine of debt, also.

As Gordon T. Long says; First Europe, then Japan, then the USA, then the World.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:59 | Link to Comment epwpixieq-1
epwpixieq-1's picture

As Gordon T. Long says; First Europe, then Japan, then the USA, then the World.

 

I am not sure how Japan and USA will be in order but am sure that after USA, the World will REBALANCE.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 15:54 | Link to Comment Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Japan has a 200% debt to GDP ratio and a median population age of 44.8. Do the math. Japan is next.

    

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ja.html

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 16:22 | Link to Comment Mine Is Bigger
Mine Is Bigger's picture

I would imagine much of Japan's GDP stems from actually producing goods/value.  I wonder if we should just look at the ratio and ignore the difference with countries, such as the U.K. and the U.S., where a high proportion of GDP is generated from shuffling paper/digits, 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 19:44 | Link to Comment CTG_Sweden
CTG_Sweden's picture

 

Clint Liquor:

 

"Japan has a 200% debt to GDP ratio and a median population age of 44.8. Do the math. Japan is next."

 

 

 

I am not so sure that demographics is such a big problem for Japan. I think that the oversupply of labour in countries like the United States and Spain seems to be a bigger problem.

 

Since women nowadays work in Europe, North America and Japan, you don´t need as many young workers as in the past. I also reckon that the demand for factory workers and clerks and many other categories of labour will continue to shrink in the future. Robots and the Internet will continue to make lots of people redundant in the labour market. I also think that new categories, such as teachers, will be redundant. Why not record good lessons by one teacher and let the students watch these lessons over the internet rather than to let thousands of teachers repeat the same lesson over and over again at different locations? If the students have questions, some kind of teachers can reply to these questions by e-mail or by using modern software like Blackboard Collaborate or Adobe Connect which enable students and teachers to communicate in real time over the internet. It seems as if it is possible to reduce salary costs for teachers by 70-80 % and at the same time learn students more by replacing teachers with video conferences over the Internet. If you just want to learn students as much as today and offer very little assistance by e-mail or in real time it seems to be possible to cut salary costs for teachers costs by about 90 %.

 

If the public at large generally hold diversified stock portfolios in companies that continuously employ less people per equity dollar, pensions for the general public will increasingly be generated by robots and computers rather than by people working for companies or by people that pay taxes to the government. And even if I´m wrong and robots and computers will not continue to replace manpower it is always possible for people to invest abroad where to workforce is younger on the average. I think that the problem is not demographics and how young workforce a country has. I think that the problem is how much do people save while they still can work and how do they invest that money. If people can´t save (because they are too poor, for instance) or don´t want to save (because of taxes or perceived risk, for instance) or if the return on investment is poor (bridges which people don´t need, for instance), then you got more problems than if you don´t have as many young workers as in the past. 

 

The real problem for Japan seems to be that they have tried to boost the economy by building bridges and other infrastructure which the country doesn´t need for taxpayer money. This infrastructure probably gives a very bad return on investment. They should probably have invested this money in high-tech companies and probably also in emerging economies in other Asian countries.

 

I also think that people should keep in mind that senior citizens in Japan don´t get generous pensions from the government. Instead, people buy government bonds while they are still working. Therefore, the government debt to GDP ratio is not as bad as it may seem to be. However, unlike stock it is hard for government debt to create any growth.

 

My impression is that the Japanese government either has to cut government spending (by reducing defence spending, for instance) or raise taxes or both. Compared to countries in Western Europe, taxes in Japan are rather modest, but corporate taxes seems to be an exception.

 

Another problem with Japan seems to be that they rely heavily on exports of durable consumer goods and that they are now facing more competition from other Asian countries for such products. Furthermore, Japanese companies do not seem to have developed brands that are as insensitive to price competition as German durable consumer goods brands. That makes them more vulnerable to competition from other Asian countries such as South Korea and China.

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 15:51 | Link to Comment Taku
Taku's picture

It can go on 'forever', unfortunately, as long as people opt-in to the fantasy of extend and pretend.

Most people eventually wake up.

Sometimes too late, but they'll realize it's just a dream.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 11:49 | Link to Comment Future Tense
Future Tense's picture

Robert Prechter released his Elliott Wave Theory for the month of November last night, which always puts me into a "deflationary" mindset for at least a few days.  His arguments are incredibly compelling, and his views on the precious metals are scary.

Then I read comments like this coming from Kyle Bass and they make equal sense.  We have come to the "Endgame" as John Mauldin puts it where the ECB will either step up or political will will overpower the inflation theory as Prechter and Mauldin believe it will.

Either way, the debate is more fascinating than it has ever been due to the nature of the markets right now.  I think think this is the best current reading list you can find out there to get caught up on the financial world we live in.  Boomerang made the list, which Kyle Bass stars in.

http://www.ftense.com/p/recommended-reading.html

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:01 | Link to Comment Crime of the Century
Crime of the Century's picture

For the record - like Bass, Mauldin also believes a sustantial bullion hedge is prudent. From his current KWN interview:

When asked about gold and the US dollar, Mauldin stated, “The dollar could rally in this type of atmosphere.  So you would see gold, in dollar terms, maybe go flat to sideways or it could even go down.  As I always tell you, I hope gold goes down because I buy some every month and that means when I buy gold it’s cheaper and I get more.”

Prechter stands with the system economists in his disdain for PMs. Alf Fields is a master EW technician, and his PM targets could not be further from Prechter's.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:00 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Link for you then:

 

KEYNOTE SPEECH AT SYDNEY GOLD SYMPOSIUM 14-15 NOVEMBER 2011 
BY ALF FIELD

""Once this correction has been completed, Intermediate Wave III of Major THREE will be underway. This should be the largest and strongest wave in the entire gold bull market. The target for this wave should be around $4500.00 with only two 13% corrections on the way.""

http://www.gold-prices.biz/home/a-target-for-gold-of-450000oz-by-alf-fie...

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:45 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

"First by inflation then by deflation" as Jefferson said.  We are in an inflationary period now (and not that Jefferson ever foresaw the EU but) and as the Euro fails we will see defaltion as the dollar values up against world currencies.

Of course the following liquidity and cash squeeze will be met by more printing and then the dollar collapses.  That is commodities rise but general prices may not as they are squeezed out for conversion to PM and other tangibles. 

Edit: We are seeing this now as consumer prices ex food and energy are (BLS BS of Course) are saying that Oct showed signs of deflation while PM's, oil and food are way up.

In otherwords, food will go in, that DVD at Wal-mart is likely to go for free.  Inflation, like weakness, can occur in some sectors far more than others.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 15:21 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

That's a great article, Temporalist, thanks for the link. I'm a follower of EW and Prechter's forecasts. I incorporate his EWI forecasts with other EW blogs, other technical analysts, my own technical analysis, and my own instincts. I like EW because I believe in the principle behind the theory, that social mood is endogenous and moves in waves, and these waves influence many underlying motives for what we see in our daily lives, and the cyclical nature of how history unfolds. I believe that a credit collapse is imminent (already in process, actually) and this is deflationary. I believe the people pulling the levers will be overwhelmed by the collapse in credit and the seize-up of the markets, and they won't be able to print their way out of it (more than one reason I believe this, but that's another conversation). So I've always believed that PMs would crash accordingly and I would have the buying opportunity of a lifetime (since I wasn't in position with finances or knowledge to buy when prices were below $900). Alf Field presents a compelling argument that my scenario could be wrong. Definitely food for thought. Thanks again.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 19:04 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

You are welcome.  I would suggest, as you say you were unable to purchase gold at a certain price range, that you reflect upon your EW analysis and POV and make sure that you are not fitting your beliefs around your perceived missed oportunity. 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 19:12 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Excellent point. Human nature, ego, and all that. I'm rethinking and taking another look at all the data. Thanks.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:12 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

The last 10 years have seen huge deflation - in terms of gold as the only real money.  Not so obvious in nominal fiat paper.  And as Gold goes to five figures in fiat paper, deflation of illiquid assets like real estate continues.  Inflation in basics such as food and oil will continue in fiat paper terms.  Need to use the right monetary base when you talk about deflation or inflation.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:26 | Link to Comment end da fed
end da fed's picture

exactly! i keep wondering where real estate will bottom out at when priced in gold. any ideas? ive tried to figure out historically what real estate or rents were valued at compared to gold or silver

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:36 | Link to Comment bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

As gold crashes down from whatever temporary lofty position it makes it to, 'Real Estate' priced in gold will HyperInflate once more!!!! But in FIAT, it will actually go down more.  Remember, the end game is for the banks to own everything and they are SOOOOO close.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:53 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

gold? the house is empty. just walk in and start living there.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Think for yourself
Think for yourself's picture

This will be even truer once the malthusian plan is fully engaged i.e. Georgia guidestones :/

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:15 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Biflation, bitchez

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 18:35 | Link to Comment e-recep
e-recep's picture

Mike "Mish" Shedlock should read this. I'm sure he'll like it.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:24 | Link to Comment Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

Prechter & his wave theories are compelling, but here's where I start to divert...

First of all, I'll say that DEFLATION is the end game of all things... Whether or not there's a hyperinflationary phase that brings about the DEFLATION, or instead, if the DEFLATION simply occurs because the debt is destroyed by affirmative policy is probably what's in question...

It's a bit like playing MONOPOLY or STRIP POKER...

The game reaches a point where one person holds all, or enough of the assets (and/or everyones clothes are removed to the point where it's mathematically unreasonable for the game to go on further)...

But can the game go on? Sure it can...

For example, the person with all the properties (in Monopoly), or with most of their clothes still on (in strip poker), could just start asking 'favors' in lieu of cash for a time being...

- Go to the fridge & fetch me another beer

-Make me a sandwich

- Do my laundry for the next month

- Give me a blowjob

- Let me film you while we have sex

The game goes on as long until the losers finally reach their point of humiliation... They probably should just have quit when they ran out of cash or clothes, but it doesn't always work out that way...

Basically what I'm saying is that if it turns out that there are sufficient enough people hanging around that would pimp themselves out for a blowjob to keep an idiot game running, then I think we'll actually see hyperinflation... My analysis in the QE 'behavior' mentality (since 2008) is that we've just about arrived at the "do my laundry for the next month" part...

So I suppose everyone ought to start moseying on down to their knees to get ready for what's to come...

POTEMKIN VILLAGE IDIOT

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:03 | Link to Comment Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

I'll expound on the same thesis...

If you're a BANKSTER (in the above scenario)... & if the girl in front of you is already stripped down naked... Make no mistake about it... YOU'RE GOING FOIR THE BLOWJOB & getting your video camera warmed up...

Whatever it takes... Pump her with a few more drinks, or agree to a BONUS for landing on FREE PARKING... Whatever it takes for her to take the bet to keep playing (which puts you in line to be dutifully owed the blowjob when it eventually comes up snake eyes for her)...

That's why we're into this whole sovereign debt scenario in the first place... Politicians are the easiest 'marks' in the world to convince to keep playing (because they, themselves don't have to perform the blowjob... They're offering your blowjob services for a chance at their fame)... No brainer there...

In the meantime... All you need to keep going is to keep printing the service for the COUPON (or, "the monthly nut")...

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:26 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

You're right. The way I put it was this: there'll be jobs available for sure going forward:  as domestic servants to the bankster ruling class in their golden age. Here's a sample:  butlers, valets, footmen, chauffeurs, gardeners, knaves, page boys, cooks, bee keepers, stable boys, jesters, jugglers, acrobats, fire breathers, gladiators, exotic dancers, troubadours and soothsayers. Don't forget parlor maids and ladies in waiting. 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:58 | Link to Comment disabledvet
Sat, 11/19/2011 - 14:05 | Link to Comment Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

Exactly +1

IOW... You're either a face card (hopefully KING)... or not...

If not... I suppose the best you can do is to try and avoind being the DEUCE (#2, if you get my drift)...

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 14:18 | Link to Comment The Fonz...befo...
The Fonz...before shark jump's picture

Don't forget security guards caviar....lots and lots of security guards, bodyguards, food tasters,

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 14:40 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Fersure. Security guard boom is on. You can even get bullet proof designer suits now

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:55 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you got a video feed for this theory?

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 14:13 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

IMHO,

according to REAL #'s, we are in Stagflation.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:37 | Link to Comment Fake Jim Quinn
Fake Jim Quinn's picture

The key is have a large portion of your assets in gold. Gold does not make your rich or poor. It merely stores value. And in a deflationary depression, the winner is he who loses the least. Your gold will hold its value relative to other assets, which means your lifestyle will be preserved. In a severe inflation, gold will obviously hold its value. You can't guess which is coming. We know debt destruction is coming. What we can't tell is how much printing will be done

Personally, since inflation destroy banks, I can't see the Fed willingly destroy banks by deliberately creating very high inflation. There will be printing for sure. Probably not enough to offset the massive money supply decrease associated with global debt destruction. But I readily admit I could be wrong. Central banks can be irrational and I can't forecast irrationality

And remember: the best precious metal is lead wrapped in a full metal jacket if things *really* get bad

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 13:50 | Link to Comment SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Disagree. Not only does it retain its value but other forms of real property deflate relative to the hardest currency possible. Also consider that as a collapse occurs, the 'bad' currencies are no longer considered valid currencies. With fotunes imploding left and right, some will trade large amounts of other properties for PMs in order to lose the least and make their own wealth portable.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 15:44 | Link to Comment Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

Frankly... I think it's all somewhat hard to predict...

Some may argue that in a collapse, that unburdened (by debt) landowners would be in the cherry pickin' position (for obvious reason towards their ability to self-sustain based on their land holdings...

OTOH - That may not the case... One can look to history to see that in 'Bolshevik' or 'Robespierre' types of post revolutionary times, individual land ownership means nothing in the context of re-written laws (or lawLESSness - as the case may be)...

In that case... 'Portable' PM's probably offer some measure of value...

It's really, truly, a fungible issue... Anyone who wants to prepare for such a scenario ought to have multiple options in place...

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 17:06 | Link to Comment GenXer
GenXer's picture

Marc Fabers recommendation of 25% PM, 25% cash, 25% real estate and 25% equities seems to be a good hedge.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 14:03 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you want your assets all in oil. and you want to be a State when you "do that." Prices are soaring in North Dakota--including wages, while they collapse throughout the entirety of the Western World. That's just the beginning:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Rp6-wG5LLqE
stop listening to these charlatans and get a life people.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 14:23 | Link to Comment Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Prechter is a douche. Printing will be the eventual response to deflation - guarenfuckingteed. Allowing deflation will destroy the system faster and harder than inflation - so they will print. Remember who gets the new cash first. Even in a hyper-inflationary scenario, there will be profit to skim for those at the head of the line.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 15:46 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Your theory rests on the assumption that "they" won't "allow" deflation; in other words, "they" have control of all market forces. This is where I disagree. They may not WANT to allow deflation, but they can't possibly print enough to defeat the trillions in debt destruction that is looming. Many many many many (many) TRILLIONS in toxic debt. The Fed has one product: FRNs. To stop the debt destruction, they would annihilate the only product they have, and it still would not work. Deflation wins first, then maybe hyperinflation to follow. IMO.

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 11:51 | Link to Comment oldmanagain
oldmanagain's picture

The assertion that Keynes advocated a "free lunch" is wrong, and exceedingly stupid.  

 

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 12:01 | Link to Comment Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Of course, Keynes did not advocate a free lunch. But, his economic theory is mis-used as cover for one. I'm sure Keynes is rolling in his grave.

But whether or not, he or you like it, Keynesian Economics has become exactly as Bass described and it would be exceedingly naive and stupid to deny it.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!