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Bloomberg On The Worst Start In Years For Earnings

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Presented with little comment except to note that Bloomberg's Chart-of-the-Day highlights specifically what we have been discussing for weeks as in this earnings season, only 47% of companies in the S&P 500 have so far exceeded analyst expectations - the lowest since before the credit crisis. S&P 1300 FTW.

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:42 | 2075168 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

BUY,BUY,BUY.....Bitchez!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:58 | 2075265 johnu1978
johnu1978's picture

I strongly encourage everyone to get out of the Wall Street Casino as soon as you possibly can. Oh, and buy gold and silver!!!

 

-John
Kalispell Montana Unionize Teletech
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykKBw89VnX0

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:14 | 2075345 clones2
clones2's picture

Corporate America should get in touch ASAP with the Bureau of Labor Statistics to figure out how to report "better" numbers! ;-)

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:55 | 2075505 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Earnings miss, but it was already priced in.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:08 | 2075551 bigun
bigun's picture

its always priced in guys, keep rallying like no tomorrow~!! /sarc

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:14 | 2075347 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Only 47% have "exceeded" analyst expectations, but how many have "met" expectations.

IF that is another 30-40%, that may account for the up market.

And yes I know these expectations are probably poor and easily met or beaten.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 23:13 | 2076833 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Should be hard to meet or exceed when you continually downgrade.

 

Chew on it for a while.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:31 | 2075423 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Oh, for Crissake. If the working conditions don't meet your requirements, get another f'n job.

Or better yet, if you need to beat the union drum and improve working conditions, go organize China.

 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:56 | 2075722 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Exactly, it's telemarketing, a miserable profession run by miserable people. "Improving working conditions" in a job like that is hopeless. Do somthing else.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:05 | 2075296 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

It's the new MOMO:

 

"Today's momentum is better described as a nonstop move in one direction without a sense of urgency on the part of buyers. It's not a get-your-track-shoes-on-and-chase-it kind of market, and in fact, those who have done so lately have yet to be rewarded."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-not-your-fathers-momentum-market-2012-01-18?link=MW_home_latest_news     

 

 

 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:21 | 2075370 clones2
clones2's picture

Market momentum is <insert adjective here> at these levels.   HOWEVER, the trend is higher and several major market charts are starting to open up higher in the charts and are above resistance levels in many cases.  Getting very nice setups as 10/20/50/200 dma's are all rising.  Euro is oversold and may bounce, the dollar looks like it may pullback, and RATES are near historic lows.

Market is totally disconnected and trading on anything except "reality" if you want to call it that. But short-term...it looks like it wants to keep trending higher.... until it doesn't.

As always... "Got silver?"

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:22 | 2075381 clones2
clones2's picture

The Dow Industrials being the best example of charts and moving average explanation above.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:57 | 2075724 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

Or the New HFT January Effect: as the first femtosecond goes, so goes the year!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:06 | 2075302 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Ready............Set............QE3+++++

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:25 | 2075606 sunny
sunny's picture

Markets up, unemployment down, CNBC happy....  They need an excuse, what excuse might they offer for more QE?

sunny

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 23:15 | 2076843 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Face down, ass up, that keeps CNBC happy....

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:43 | 2075175 EZT
EZT's picture

?*

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:44 | 2075180 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Can we say "margin compression" and "loss leaders"?  I thought you could.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:44 | 2075187 redpill
redpill's picture

Highly bullish

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:08 | 2075315 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Exceedingly bullish!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:13 | 2075335 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Highly Exceedingly Highly Bullish!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:15 | 2075341 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

 

 

Broken Windows...very Bullish!

Henry Hazlitt:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXGQDqN67YI

http://freedomkeys.com/window.htm

 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:46 | 2075197 jarboejl
jarboejl's picture

Don't tell that to the market!  We're up, up, and away!  (On fumes-for-volume of course.)

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:46 | 2075202 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

It's priced in, so quit worrying about it.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:47 | 2075204 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

I blame the analysts...they didn't set expectations low enough to ensure the beats...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:04 | 2075292 Ex-Pat
Ex-Pat's picture

Yes, if TPTB wanted earnings met, then the analysts would have set the bar lower.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:37 | 2075448 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

would luv to see an animation of average earnings expectations shown as a runner's track hurdle with a momo tard running (SPX) and jumping over the hurdles that miraculously seems to fall (avg. lowered guidance)  just before the Mr. tard leaps over it.  Each quarter represented as a hurdle over and over again.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:47 | 2075206 nudlee
nudlee's picture

but its priced in, is it not?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:07 | 2075207 I should be working
I should be working's picture

Finally the stock market has decoupled from the economy.  I was tired of the real world anyway, it's such a drag.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:50 | 2075216 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

S&P 1300....FUCK THAT.

At the rate we going by V-day S&P 1450 will be in a play.

And don't forget QE3 is just around the corner.

Yeh, Cramericans.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:09 | 2075316 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

It's 'Fuck Yeah, Cramerica!'

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:51 | 2075225 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

it's the new normal.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:52 | 2075230 The Axe
The Axe's picture

It really doesnt matter Brian pushing the buy button at the NY Fed...all day

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:18 | 2075365 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Exactly.  What fucking difference does it make when the OBVIOUSY plan is to continue this shitfest on and on and on and on?

They will do WHATEVER they want to do.

Stop trying to apply fundamental thoughts to clearly manipulated events.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:52 | 2075232 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"Like all bearish news, priced in." The motto of absolute slovenly complacency just asking to be punished.    Contrarians of the world unite.   

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:54 | 2075243 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Phoney accounting can only work until it can"t

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:17 | 2075361 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Profound. Any other gems of wisdom you'd like to share?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:57 | 2075253 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Daddy... Whats an earnings?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:55 | 2075254 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Since when has earnings had anything to do with equity pricing?

That's just a crazy suggestion.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:57 | 2075259 gjp
gjp's picture

Nasdaq close to a 10-year high, all-time highs in Apple, Whole Foods, close for Home Depot.  Don't tell the HFT guys that the American Century is over.

As long as clownbucks are still the reserve (and the Euro's travails have given them a few more years, it seems) they will support relentless asset appreciation regardless of real economic developments.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 14:58 | 2075264 HD
HD's picture

They lowered expectations several times and it still wasn't enough. Bulls don't just want this - they need it. If the market falls on it's back it's going to be a year or more before it gets back up.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:02 | 2075281 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"...only 47% of companies in the S&P 500 have so far exceeded analyst expectations..."

That seems rather lousy considering how analysts so often lower EPS estimates throughout the quarter until the EPS data is released.  If only 47% of companies can meet what is often a continually lowered EPS, that would not be too impressive.

What the hell.  Print, lie to the masses, distract them with sports and reality TV, and kick the can.

100% FUBAR.

 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:13 | 2075338 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

BBG has a nice tool to track analyst expectations. Every time when the earnings announcement time gets closer, ANALysts bring down their estimates. Then we see those dear "better than expected" headlines all over the place and the levitation without volume can continue.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:02 | 2075282 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

When exactly does it sink in that this earning's season is a dud?  What will it take?  Nothing less than an AAPL miss?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:16 | 2075353 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

In Bizarro market-land even Apple misses are bullish! (see last quarter)

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:26 | 2075400 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I think you're absolutely right. I think an AAPL miss is the only thing that can shake the market from this unreal 9yr best start to January.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:04 | 2075293 nedwardkelly
nedwardkelly's picture

What a bullshit statistic though... "how much they exceed analyst expectations".

Shouldn't it be called "how wrong analysts were". Or "Analysts underestimated earnings 47% of the time". It's a little tail wagging the dog evaluating the markets by how wrong analysts are isn't it?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:07 | 2075304 RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that there is little to no media coverage of earnings?  Until this.  Earnings coverage has been scarily sparse.  Yet this market just ticks up and up and up.  I can almost assure you that this is by design and not a coincidence.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:10 | 2075323 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Maybe THIS TOO was "priced in" already so we can keep on levitating ever higher! Lol!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:10 | 2075329 toros
toros's picture

Buy the dip!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:10 | 2075331 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

ZING!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:12 | 2075333 mirac
mirac's picture

I don't even beleive the 47% figure!!!!!!  Like beating lowered expectations on a number that was considerably higher last year for this quarter.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:51 | 2075493 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Like how Alcoa for example 'beat' earnings of .3 cents....which was drastically lowered from .20 cents....new normal.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:13 | 2075339 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Obviously this is bullish because...uh...ah fuck it...just because.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:15 | 2075355 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

One wonders - how does the S&P forward looking P/E ratio look like at present? Still a (recording to CNBS) "ridiculously low 12"?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:21 | 2075375 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

just wait for Apple to report, they are going to crush it

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:07 | 2075547 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Amazon is going crazy son

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:46 | 2075480 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

ZH been telling us for 3 years that the end of the world economy is nigh upon us.  I keep waiting.  I'm beginning to think ZH is just entertainment for the gloom and doomers.  I'm "invested" for a down market based on the seemingly reasonable arguments found here on ZH but continue to be very very disappointed that the market is not cooperating.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:15 | 2075568 pursueliberty
pursueliberty's picture

You aren't the only one. 

I've pulled perfectly good investments in fear.  I won't do it again.  It is all withering on the vine (my money), no great place to put it, and I missed an amazing market rally that would have netted me a lot of money. 

This site is wonderful, but it is composed as a fear mongering, gloom and doom, the end is near type of arrangement. 

Arguments that seem reasonable for a sub 1k sp are very far from the truth.  There a many companies out there still making real money.

I bought a package of bacon today for $2.50, and 10 pounds of smoked sausage for $13.  I see inflation everywhere, but ten pounds of chicken leg/thighs were $10.  Atleast you can still eat a day for a hour of minimum wage work.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:26 | 2075610 xglider
xglider's picture

Its important to remember that ZH, while it provides great perspective on the macro events, does not provide any guidance on how you should trade it or, more importantly, how to *time* your trades. Always keep that in mind. How equities behave in light of massive CB intervention is also another dynamic.

We're currently in a vicious rally within a bear market - and since this rally is at or near the very top, it is also the most challenging psychologically if one is bearish. The giveaway is the declining volume, the ascending wedge technical patterns (bearish), strength of treasuries and other key indicators that are not voting with this rally w/ confidence. 

Anything could happen - and hedge accordingly. 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:42 | 2075762 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"...strength of treasuries and other key indicators that are not voting with this rally w/ confidence."

I would humbly offer up another indicator.  I own a wide array of muni bonds (which I generally hold until they are called or until they reach maturity since I don't trade munis).  Anyhow, I have seen the market value of munis surge as of late.  It is obvious that there is a real appetite for those munis.  I know munis are not a popular subject for discussion here on ZH, but people are paying huge premiums above par value to get them.  They obviously are not buying into this broken stock market.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 04:59 | 2077254 resurger
resurger's picture

more like "Bullish" on a pile of shit +1

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:05 | 2075982 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

People have missed out on making enormous sums of money by reading Zero Hedge. What they say is true but not relevant to the market.

I'm amazed the blog is as popular as it is.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:01 | 2076161 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

So you're saying the stock market is using it's old I'll make you rich just get with me. I'm totally not gonna steal your resources. Glad to see you all are so down with OPP. Other Peoples Principle.

Ya it's the perfect time to dive in and get MF globaled. 38 thousand fucking farmers fighting assholes for their money instead of making food. This is going to end fucking well. I'm SURE.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:50 | 2075487 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Fuck earnings....we're all up in this 'new normal' now and the FED will just print them money to make up any shortfalls of stupid earnings. Besides, the peasants can NOT be relied upon to provide the stocks with good earnings....so we'll now revoke their citizenship, arrest them without charges, and deport them out of the country.

Now back to your regularly scheduled market fascism.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 15:52 | 2075492 gabbayo
gabbayo's picture

Bad news are priced in. Rally on

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:05 | 2075538 devo
devo's picture

Don't worry guys, it's all priced in. /sarc

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:12 | 2075558 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

What do earnings have to do with price, anyway?  Its liquidity, baby.

Ben is shoveling it out the door, (via Europe) and there must still be a few dollars left over for the players from Russian and Japanese bond liquidations. 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:18 | 2075578 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Greek default?  Priced in.  

Crappy earnings?  Priced in.  

US debt ceiling breach?  Priced in.  

S&P downgrades for the next 5 years.  Priced in.

EZ recession.  Priced in.

Iran conflict.  Priced in.

BRIC economic collapse.  Priced in.

 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:55 | 2075717 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Juniper Networks beating lowered estimates by 0.01. RALLY!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:19 | 2075583 dcb
dcb's picture

when you start to realize the tops and bottoms are [rogrammed in before hand then the levitations won't surprise you. it's more easy to do on the low vaolukme ones of the hft, and when selling overwhelms the hft, it just alters the trajectory to where it is progrmmed to go. Not sure why you can't figure this out.

howm many linees can  you draw and almost alwaysw all see them together at the same height on the chart, regardless of the path taken it's why I have so often wrote on this board to use speed lines. because you can see when the initial path gets broken, youy can throw down a new one, using the new formed path, and low and behold it comes to almost the same exact stop, height.

we also have a huge resistance channel forming very soon that can be drawn from the market peak, to the last marklet peak. I cdan assure you we can most likely expect the barnenke to make some kind of comment because he always seems to open his mouth when we hit critical levels to push it over the hump

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:34 | 2075637 dcb
dcb's picture

they gotta get rid of hft, and people need to start to protest or have an hft tax. if you make the amount per transaction and not as a percent it means hft just wouldn't cut it anymore, but block trading would easy.except of course the bankers own america, so we'd most likely have to make an example of them

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:57 | 2075726 dcb
dcb's picture

I will add the collapse of le3hman didn't make them all go crazy because of the economy. it prevented them from being able to manipulate the markets. that's what it is all about.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:36 | 2075642 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

S&P 1300 FTW.

More like S&P 900.

Buckle Up! it is going to be a bumpy ride down!

Europe via Contagion? NAAAAAAAA! More like the Wealth Transfer, all the leverage used here in the U.S. so things look the same while we flood the rest of the wanna be's!

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission voted 4 to 1 on Wednesday to adopt the overhaul.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/01/11/regulator-adopts-new-customer-protection-rules/?src=dlbksb

 

Protecting the lie! it worked with Russia! back in the 1980's! why not go for bigger is better this go round?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6a0zhc1y_Ns

Former World Bank President: Big Shift Coming

 

America has been gutted for the benefit of the rest of the World.

since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Over the last ten years, China has mounted the biggest challenge to the U.S. manufacturing sector ever seen, threatening producers of steel, chemicals, glass, paper, drugs and any number of other items with prices they cannot match. Not coincidentally, the United States has lost an average of 50,000 manufacturing jobs every month during the same period.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/2011/02/14/intelligence-community-fears-u-s-manufacturing-decline/

12 months a year.. multiplied by 10 years =’s 120 months! 50,000 multiplied by 12 months equals 6 million Manufacturing Jobs.. and these numbers are SOOOO! VERY!! LITE!!!

 

America! How Do You Feel About Paying for the 1 World, 1 People Idea?

It is for the betterment of the World!

Sorry America that YOU! will be the only one to suffer or give anything up for this land mark push!

but wait! shouldnt you be shorting something? LULZ!!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 16:36 | 2075645 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Here’s hoping for the best. But we also want to offer investors a framework for thinking about – and positioning for – “the worst.”

First, we must think about how a country may leave the eurozone and therefore be ready to reassess the probability of that risk if some of the anticipated signposts begin to materialize. Second, by thinking about the economic and market spillovers, we can reassess the correlation of other assets to a euro breakup. And third, by thinking about the implications of possible policy responses, we can be prepared to take advantage of opportunities and work to avoid the negative costs that may arise as a consequence.

 

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Thinking-About-the-Implications-of-Rising-Euro-Exit-Risks.aspx

 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 17:15 | 2075772 dcb
dcb's picture

I agree by not going back to a good trading base line more often wshen the drop happens it's more violent, and larger. once more hft. the anger I get at this stuff. you can really easily plot out this and right now we are very far above that entry point where id' consider. I can enter at any point and put stop losses. but this way the sheep get suckered in. I am astounded what happens and is allowed to pass as a marketplace.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 22:23 | 2076730 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

let me be clear the market is only worth 500 on a good day.

the 900 number is a post european contagion wave scuttling the market.. and 900's are a positive number.. not a negative number.. becuase it could go all very worng and we could end up under 500 if these idiots are not careful!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 17:55 | 2075936 trilliontroll
trilliontroll's picture

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/graphical-representations-of-bernankes.html

So far the most scary thing i have read for over a year

M2 Multiplier and M2 velocity at a 50 year  low

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:09 | 2075999 rqb1
rqb1's picture

velocity is the key, great link, i knew it was down, but always nice to see the graph.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:10 | 2076543 Dorky
Dorky's picture

Do you know this guy is a hypocrite?

He promotes gold but he does not subscribe to hyperinflation.

He argued for deflation.

In deflation, the best "investment" is holding cash, not gold.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 01:32 | 2077100 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

trilliontroll

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/graphical-representations-of-bernankes.html

So far the most scary thing i have read for over a year

M2 Multiplier and M2 velocity at a 50 year low

Mish.. is an idiot.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_vXdkDwa48&feature=g-all-u&context=G2b85ad9FAAAAAAAADAA

and the replacement for the reserve currency dollar.. between Russia China India and Iran as well as for Japan, South Korea and China is well down the road towards completion.

 

The article to which Summers' refers is ASEAN+3 RESEARCH GROUP

Significance of Asean Currency Proposal Wildly Overstated

Summers says the significance of the development cannot be overstated. Of course it can and Summers proves it.

 http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/05/hyperinflation-nonsense-in-multiple.html

Now I could go on and on and site how hyper-inflation caused the food riots in Egypt / Mid-east thusly we have the same old people running the countries but with new front people.. never mind.. either you get it or you get fed bullshit from someone else.
Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:38 | 2076087 rfarring
rfarring's picture

bear in mind, only 18 companies reported so far and 11 have been financials.  law of small numbers...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:32 | 2076282 netpounder
netpounder's picture

It's priced in so you better buy before you are priced out!  Sarc.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:06 | 2076527 Dorky
Dorky's picture

People always talk about the market already priced in.

If it is already priced in, then why even bother to sell in the first place?

Ain't the future will always going to be better?

And if it will always going to be better, then shouldn't the market going to be higher in the future?

So why even bother to sell?

"Priced in" is a complete bullshit.

Market collapse is not because of earnings underperformance, but because of credit collapse.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 22:56 | 2076804 paul_Liu
paul_Liu's picture

"...only 47% of companies in the S&P 500 have so far exceeded analyst expectations..."

So what? Market keeps going higher and bears keep suffering...

maybe we should read less of ZH and make some money.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 04:55 | 2077252 resurger
resurger's picture

WOW! go read bloomberg then... dont come here and start complaining.

Well the higher the makret moves, the more shorts i will take

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