This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Bloomberg On The Worst Start In Years For Earnings
Presented with little comment except to note that Bloomberg's Chart-of-the-Day highlights specifically what we have been discussing for weeks as in this earnings season, only 47% of companies in the S&P 500 have so far exceeded analyst expectations - the lowest since before the credit crisis. S&P 1300 FTW.
Chart: Bloomberg
- 11116 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -



BUY,BUY,BUY.....Bitchez!
I strongly encourage everyone to get out of the Wall Street Casino as soon as you possibly can. Oh, and buy gold and silver!!!
-John
Kalispell Montana Unionize Teletech
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykKBw89VnX0
Corporate America should get in touch ASAP with the Bureau of Labor Statistics to figure out how to report "better" numbers! ;-)
Earnings miss, but it was already priced in.
its always priced in guys, keep rallying like no tomorrow~!! /sarc
Only 47% have "exceeded" analyst expectations, but how many have "met" expectations.
IF that is another 30-40%, that may account for the up market.
And yes I know these expectations are probably poor and easily met or beaten.
Should be hard to meet or exceed when you continually downgrade.
Chew on it for a while.
Oh, for Crissake. If the working conditions don't meet your requirements, get another f'n job.
Or better yet, if you need to beat the union drum and improve working conditions, go organize China.
Exactly, it's telemarketing, a miserable profession run by miserable people. "Improving working conditions" in a job like that is hopeless. Do somthing else.
It's the new MOMO:
"Today's momentum is better described as a nonstop move in one direction without a sense of urgency on the part of buyers. It's not a get-your-track-shoes-on-and-chase-it kind of market, and in fact, those who have done so lately have yet to be rewarded."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-not-your-fathers-momentum-market-2012-01-18?link=MW_home_latest_news
Market momentum is <insert adjective here> at these levels. HOWEVER, the trend is higher and several major market charts are starting to open up higher in the charts and are above resistance levels in many cases. Getting very nice setups as 10/20/50/200 dma's are all rising. Euro is oversold and may bounce, the dollar looks like it may pullback, and RATES are near historic lows.
Market is totally disconnected and trading on anything except "reality" if you want to call it that. But short-term...it looks like it wants to keep trending higher.... until it doesn't.
As always... "Got silver?"
The Dow Industrials being the best example of charts and moving average explanation above.
Or the New HFT January Effect: as the first femtosecond goes, so goes the year!
Ready............Set............QE3+++++
Markets up, unemployment down, CNBC happy.... They need an excuse, what excuse might they offer for more QE?
sunny
Face down, ass up, that keeps CNBC happy....
?*
Can we say "margin compression" and "loss leaders"? I thought you could.
Highly bullish
Exceedingly bullish!
Highly Exceedingly Highly Bullish!
Broken Windows...very Bullish!
Henry Hazlitt:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXGQDqN67YI
http://freedomkeys.com/window.htm
Don't tell that to the market! We're up, up, and away! (On fumes-for-volume of course.)
It's priced in, so quit worrying about it.
I blame the analysts...they didn't set expectations low enough to ensure the beats...
Yes, if TPTB wanted earnings met, then the analysts would have set the bar lower.
would luv to see an animation of average earnings expectations shown as a runner's track hurdle with a momo tard running (SPX) and jumping over the hurdles that miraculously seems to fall (avg. lowered guidance) just before the Mr. tard leaps over it. Each quarter represented as a hurdle over and over again.
but its priced in, is it not?
Finally the stock market has decoupled from the economy. I was tired of the real world anyway, it's such a drag.
S&P 1300....FUCK THAT.
At the rate we going by V-day S&P 1450 will be in a play.
And don't forget QE3 is just around the corner.
Yeh, Cramericans.
It's 'Fuck Yeah, Cramerica!'
it's the new normal.
It really doesnt matter Brian pushing the buy button at the NY Fed...all day
Exactly. What fucking difference does it make when the OBVIOUSY plan is to continue this shitfest on and on and on and on?
They will do WHATEVER they want to do.
Stop trying to apply fundamental thoughts to clearly manipulated events.
"Like all bearish news, priced in." The motto of absolute slovenly complacency just asking to be punished. Contrarians of the world unite.
Phoney accounting can only work until it can"t
Profound. Any other gems of wisdom you'd like to share?
Daddy... Whats an earnings?
Since when has earnings had anything to do with equity pricing?
That's just a crazy suggestion.
Nasdaq close to a 10-year high, all-time highs in Apple, Whole Foods, close for Home Depot. Don't tell the HFT guys that the American Century is over.
As long as clownbucks are still the reserve (and the Euro's travails have given them a few more years, it seems) they will support relentless asset appreciation regardless of real economic developments.
They lowered expectations several times and it still wasn't enough. Bulls don't just want this - they need it. If the market falls on it's back it's going to be a year or more before it gets back up.
"...only 47% of companies in the S&P 500 have so far exceeded analyst expectations..."
That seems rather lousy considering how analysts so often lower EPS estimates throughout the quarter until the EPS data is released. If only 47% of companies can meet what is often a continually lowered EPS, that would not be too impressive.
What the hell. Print, lie to the masses, distract them with sports and reality TV, and kick the can.
100% FUBAR.
BBG has a nice tool to track analyst expectations. Every time when the earnings announcement time gets closer, ANALysts bring down their estimates. Then we see those dear "better than expected" headlines all over the place and the levitation without volume can continue.
When exactly does it sink in that this earning's season is a dud? What will it take? Nothing less than an AAPL miss?
In Bizarro market-land even Apple misses are bullish! (see last quarter)
I think you're absolutely right. I think an AAPL miss is the only thing that can shake the market from this unreal 9yr best start to January.
What a bullshit statistic though... "how much they exceed analyst expectations".
Shouldn't it be called "how wrong analysts were". Or "Analysts underestimated earnings 47% of the time". It's a little tail wagging the dog evaluating the markets by how wrong analysts are isn't it?
Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that there is little to no media coverage of earnings? Until this. Earnings coverage has been scarily sparse. Yet this market just ticks up and up and up. I can almost assure you that this is by design and not a coincidence.
Maybe THIS TOO was "priced in" already so we can keep on levitating ever higher! Lol!
Buy the dip!
http://www.heluvagood.com/products/proddetail.aspx?id=366
ZING!
I don't even beleive the 47% figure!!!!!! Like beating lowered expectations on a number that was considerably higher last year for this quarter.
Like how Alcoa for example 'beat' earnings of .3 cents....which was drastically lowered from .20 cents....new normal.
Obviously this is bullish because...uh...ah fuck it...just because.
One wonders - how does the S&P forward looking P/E ratio look like at present? Still a (recording to CNBS) "ridiculously low 12"?
just wait for Apple to report, they are going to crush it
Amazon is going crazy son
ZH been telling us for 3 years that the end of the world economy is nigh upon us. I keep waiting. I'm beginning to think ZH is just entertainment for the gloom and doomers. I'm "invested" for a down market based on the seemingly reasonable arguments found here on ZH but continue to be very very disappointed that the market is not cooperating.
You aren't the only one.
I've pulled perfectly good investments in fear. I won't do it again. It is all withering on the vine (my money), no great place to put it, and I missed an amazing market rally that would have netted me a lot of money.
This site is wonderful, but it is composed as a fear mongering, gloom and doom, the end is near type of arrangement.
Arguments that seem reasonable for a sub 1k sp are very far from the truth. There a many companies out there still making real money.
I bought a package of bacon today for $2.50, and 10 pounds of smoked sausage for $13. I see inflation everywhere, but ten pounds of chicken leg/thighs were $10. Atleast you can still eat a day for a hour of minimum wage work.
Its important to remember that ZH, while it provides great perspective on the macro events, does not provide any guidance on how you should trade it or, more importantly, how to *time* your trades. Always keep that in mind. How equities behave in light of massive CB intervention is also another dynamic.
We're currently in a vicious rally within a bear market - and since this rally is at or near the very top, it is also the most challenging psychologically if one is bearish. The giveaway is the declining volume, the ascending wedge technical patterns (bearish), strength of treasuries and other key indicators that are not voting with this rally w/ confidence.
Anything could happen - and hedge accordingly.
"...strength of treasuries and other key indicators that are not voting with this rally w/ confidence."
I would humbly offer up another indicator. I own a wide array of muni bonds (which I generally hold until they are called or until they reach maturity since I don't trade munis). Anyhow, I have seen the market value of munis surge as of late. It is obvious that there is a real appetite for those munis. I know munis are not a popular subject for discussion here on ZH, but people are paying huge premiums above par value to get them. They obviously are not buying into this broken stock market.
more like "Bullish" on a pile of shit +1
People have missed out on making enormous sums of money by reading Zero Hedge. What they say is true but not relevant to the market.
I'm amazed the blog is as popular as it is.
So you're saying the stock market is using it's old I'll make you rich just get with me. I'm totally not gonna steal your resources. Glad to see you all are so down with OPP. Other Peoples Principle.
Ya it's the perfect time to dive in and get MF globaled. 38 thousand fucking farmers fighting assholes for their money instead of making food. This is going to end fucking well. I'm SURE.
Fuck earnings....we're all up in this 'new normal' now and the FED will just print them money to make up any shortfalls of stupid earnings. Besides, the peasants can NOT be relied upon to provide the stocks with good earnings....so we'll now revoke their citizenship, arrest them without charges, and deport them out of the country.
Now back to your regularly scheduled market fascism.
Bad news are priced in. Rally on
Don't worry guys, it's all priced in. /sarc
What do earnings have to do with price, anyway? Its liquidity, baby.
Ben is shoveling it out the door, (via Europe) and there must still be a few dollars left over for the players from Russian and Japanese bond liquidations.
Greek default? Priced in.
Crappy earnings? Priced in.
US debt ceiling breach? Priced in.
S&P downgrades for the next 5 years. Priced in.
EZ recession. Priced in.
Iran conflict. Priced in.
BRIC economic collapse. Priced in.
Juniper Networks beating lowered estimates by 0.01. RALLY!
when you start to realize the tops and bottoms are [rogrammed in before hand then the levitations won't surprise you. it's more easy to do on the low vaolukme ones of the hft, and when selling overwhelms the hft, it just alters the trajectory to where it is progrmmed to go. Not sure why you can't figure this out.
howm many linees can you draw and almost alwaysw all see them together at the same height on the chart, regardless of the path taken it's why I have so often wrote on this board to use speed lines. because you can see when the initial path gets broken, youy can throw down a new one, using the new formed path, and low and behold it comes to almost the same exact stop, height.
we also have a huge resistance channel forming very soon that can be drawn from the market peak, to the last marklet peak. I cdan assure you we can most likely expect the barnenke to make some kind of comment because he always seems to open his mouth when we hit critical levels to push it over the hump
they gotta get rid of hft, and people need to start to protest or have an hft tax. if you make the amount per transaction and not as a percent it means hft just wouldn't cut it anymore, but block trading would easy.except of course the bankers own america, so we'd most likely have to make an example of them
I will add the collapse of le3hman didn't make them all go crazy because of the economy. it prevented them from being able to manipulate the markets. that's what it is all about.
More like S&P 900.
Buckle Up! it is going to be a bumpy ride down!
Europe via Contagion? NAAAAAAAA! More like the Wealth Transfer, all the leverage used here in the U.S. so things look the same while we flood the rest of the wanna be's!
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission voted 4 to 1 on Wednesday to adopt the overhaul.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/01/11/regulator-adopts-new-customer-protection-rules/?src=dlbksb
Protecting the lie! it worked with Russia! back in the 1980's! why not go for bigger is better this go round?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6a0zhc1y_Ns
Former World Bank President: Big Shift Coming
America has been gutted for the benefit of the rest of the World.
since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Over the last ten years, China has mounted the biggest challenge to the U.S. manufacturing sector ever seen, threatening producers of steel, chemicals, glass, paper, drugs and any number of other items with prices they cannot match. Not coincidentally, the United States has lost an average of 50,000 manufacturing jobs every month during the same period.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/2011/02/14/intelligence-community-fears-u-s-manufacturing-decline/
12 months a year.. multiplied by 10 years =’s 120 months! 50,000 multiplied by 12 months equals 6 million Manufacturing Jobs.. and these numbers are SOOOO! VERY!! LITE!!!
America! How Do You Feel About Paying for the 1 World, 1 People Idea?
It is for the betterment of the World!
Sorry America that YOU! will be the only one to suffer or give anything up for this land mark push!
but wait! shouldnt you be shorting something? LULZ!!
Here’s hoping for the best. But we also want to offer investors a framework for thinking about – and positioning for – “the worst.”
First, we must think about how a country may leave the eurozone and therefore be ready to reassess the probability of that risk if some of the anticipated signposts begin to materialize. Second, by thinking about the economic and market spillovers, we can reassess the correlation of other assets to a euro breakup. And third, by thinking about the implications of possible policy responses, we can be prepared to take advantage of opportunities and work to avoid the negative costs that may arise as a consequence.
http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Thinking-About-the-Implications-of-Rising-Euro-Exit-Risks.aspx
I agree by not going back to a good trading base line more often wshen the drop happens it's more violent, and larger. once more hft. the anger I get at this stuff. you can really easily plot out this and right now we are very far above that entry point where id' consider. I can enter at any point and put stop losses. but this way the sheep get suckered in. I am astounded what happens and is allowed to pass as a marketplace.
let me be clear the market is only worth 500 on a good day.
the 900 number is a post european contagion wave scuttling the market.. and 900's are a positive number.. not a negative number.. becuase it could go all very worng and we could end up under 500 if these idiots are not careful!
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/graphical-representations-of-bernankes.html
So far the most scary thing i have read for over a year
M2 Multiplier and M2 velocity at a 50 year low
velocity is the key, great link, i knew it was down, but always nice to see the graph.
Do you know this guy is a hypocrite?
He promotes gold but he does not subscribe to hyperinflation.
He argued for deflation.
In deflation, the best "investment" is holding cash, not gold.
Mish.. is an idiot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_vXdkDwa48&feature=g-all-u&context=G2b85ad9FAAAAAAAADAA
and the replacement for the reserve currency dollar.. between Russia China India and Iran as well as for Japan, South Korea and China is well down the road towards completion.
Now I could go on and on and site how hyper-inflation caused the food riots in Egypt / Mid-east thusly we have the same old people running the countries but with new front people.. never mind.. either you get it or you get fed bullshit from someone else.bear in mind, only 18 companies reported so far and 11 have been financials. law of small numbers...
It's priced in so you better buy before you are priced out! Sarc.
People always talk about the market already priced in.
If it is already priced in, then why even bother to sell in the first place?
Ain't the future will always going to be better?
And if it will always going to be better, then shouldn't the market going to be higher in the future?
So why even bother to sell?
"Priced in" is a complete bullshit.
Market collapse is not because of earnings underperformance, but because of credit collapse.
"...only 47% of companies in the S&P 500 have so far exceeded analyst expectations..."
So what? Market keeps going higher and bears keep suffering...
maybe we should read less of ZH and make some money.
WOW! go read bloomberg then... dont come here and start complaining.
Well the higher the makret moves, the more shorts i will take