BLS Reports Two Sequential Initial Claims Misses In A Row In Claims: One Current And One Prior Revised

Tyler Durden's picture

When we discussed last week's intiial claims number we said, "In today's weekly dose of BS from the BLS, we get the previous week's massive beat of 401K revised to 405K, cutting the 410K estimate beat in half. But what is important is that the expectation for this week of 405K was once again "massively beaten" by a whopping 1K at 404K. Of course, next week this number will be revised to 408K meaning the consensus was  missed but no robots will care." Sure enough, last week's beat was enough for 5 ES points. And even surer enough, we were spot on: last week's 404K "beat" was just revised to a 409K "miss." As for this week's soon to be revised upward number, it came at 403K, missing expectations of 400K, but sure enough, suddenly a "much better" number than last week's revised 409K. Just how dumb does the BLS think everyone is? The bottom line is that claims continue to be persistently higher than 400K, now something like 25 out of 26 weeks in a row, which means there is no hope for any NFP improvements in the future.What is curious is that there was a pronounced deterioration in Texas, New York and California, which all saw a spike in layoffs, by 4,644; 8,568 and 13,882 respectively, due to layoffs in the manufacturing, service, retail and transportation industries. Said otherwise, the recession continues. In other news, continuing claims printed at a soon to be upwardly revised 3,719K, up from an upwardly revised 3,694K and worse than expectations of 3,690K. Last, and as everyone knows by now, the cliff issue is hurting ever more people, with about 68K people dropping off EUCs and Extended Benefits, down 1.6 million from a year ago.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Debtless's picture

Circumventing reality is just how we roll.

ratso's picture

You are talking about changes that are not statistically significant.  This stuff doesn't matter until the changes get bigger and consistently so.

oh_bama's picture





SheepDog-One's picture

Well if you think it sucks so bad, go to Yahoo!Finance! I hear they do real good 'journalism' over there.

metastar's picture

N0 bama,

I get far better info here that I can action than from any MSM propaganda outlet.

SheepDog-One's picture

Theres lies, damn lies, then theres 'statistics'.

fuu's picture
99 weeks ago today was  11/26/2009
Libertarian777's picture

not statistically significant?

the prior week BLS is ALWAYS revised upwards. For at least the last 2 years.

It's called an upside bias. They should correct for it if they were true statisticians.

'Statistically significant' doesn't only have a quantitative aspect of 5k revision / 405k print. It also has a qualitative aspect (consistent direction of the bias).

Next you're going to tell me there's no inflation if you exclude food, energy and the price of anything that's gone up.

JPM Hater001's picture

Hey, can someone put some deck chairs over here?  And tell the band to keep playing.  No reason not to have a good time right?

DeadFred's picture

Sorry sir, they seem to keep moving out of place. Maybe it's the slope of the deck. Here, is that better now?

TheGameIsRigged's picture

Seriously....the frustration in my brain is reaching a fever pitch.  I don't know what is more disheartening... the dumb animals who think they can keep lying to us (all the while thinking they are outsmarting us)...or the dumber animals who buy into it.


Oh....I must be the dumbest animal of them all!!!  I'm the one who, like everyone here (well, almost everyone), sees the light of what's happening - but still gets burned positioning for a downside move that NEVER COMES....  Ha ha - the jokes on us....until it's not.

Nom de Guerre's picture

Nearer my God to th....(blurrrb)

Manthong's picture

"Just how dumb does the BLS think everyone is?"

Dumb as an algo that gets a positive value bias figure rather than a negative one.

CPL's picture

...along with awesome BLS numbers, the nonsense with Libya will be priced in as a metric.


I get the feeling though all this good news won't hold anything up though.  It's now a question of which HFT blinks first and moves all into FAZ and TZA.

SheepDog-One's picture

Libya is done, as the Obama war machine rolls up is Iran. And that one will be a bitch with Russia and China getting involved.

Im not worried much about these rigged markets, Im watching out for the false flag attack to blame on Iran. I think this one will be way worse than 9-11.

CPL's picture

At this point governments can take care of each others protest problems by dropping nukes on each other while coordinating in bunkers.


It doesn't matter anyways.  The Trade federation of the EU is planning on putting the kibosh on all media involving unhappy people.  Next time we see anything honest come out of europe is when people over throw their local governments and seize communications.

abugarance's picture

TYLER, could you please post some thoughts on the credit complex, High Yield, IG and of cource the mother of all Primex

Tsar Pointless's picture

The people who still believe we are going to be just fine and peachy keen, are the very same portion of the 99%-ers who deride the Occupy Wall Street crowd and their offshoots, and refer to them as "crazy" and "dirty hippies".

Those who don't understand reality, calling those who do "crazy".

Interesting times in which we live. But certainly, not innovative.

DeadFred's picture

"Just how dumb does the BLS think everyone is?"

Dumb enough to think that 010100001011101010101110 is less than 010100001011101010101111.

SheepDog-One's picture

Futures melt up.

Those who control the markets now, robots, do not need to eat, or get paid, or find a dwelling. 

WiZlon's picture

The BLS "prior revisions" are beyond a joke, and are now actually offensive to anyone who can read and do simple math.  It's a disgrace.  


I wonder how much we could save the tax-payers by eliminating them?  Hopefully, a politician worth his salt has that question in his thoughts.

SheepDog-One's picture

You mean eliminate the BLS? Or the taxpayers?

Esso's picture

"We had to destroy the taxpayers to save them."

Corn1945's picture

Is it even statistically possible for the previous week to be revised up every single time? What are the odds of that actually being the correct outcome? Can someone run those numbers?

buzzsaw99's picture

is it statistically possible for corporate earnings to beat wall street estimates by one penny 99% of the time?

Tsar Pointless's picture

I'd imagine the statistical possibility of this happening every week is about the same as the odds that somebody who hasn't even talked to members of OWS or visited one of their sites thinks that these people want to kill any body who has two nickels to rub together.

DeadFred's picture

I forget how many weeks in a row it is now. The last time I did the calculation it had a so many zeros after the decimal point the number had no meaning. A way to get your mind to grasp it is to take the same number of pennies in your hand as the number of weeks in a row they revised the figures up(40, 50 80?) then throw them up in the air and yell "All heads!".

SteveGennisonBallWasher's picture

How long can this continue?  I'm starting to think maybe forever.  I might as well go walk outside naked, go to work drunk and naked.  Afterall, this is imaginationland.

John Law Lives's picture

"Just how dumb does the BLS think everyone is?"

Considering that this BS goes on week after week after week, they probably know how dumb the masses are. They have probably detected a tight inverse correlation between TV ratings for 'Jersey Shore' and public IQs.

What is particularly irksome is how the MSM has been changing the level of weekly jobless claims numbers that supposedly represents "stability" in the labor market. It has systematically crept higher from 325K to 350K to 375K to 400K. Pretty soon, they will completely redefine what "unemployed" really means and tell us that zero job growth represents stability in the labor market.

100% FUBAR.

youngman's picture

It is one talks about it anymore...its just a 5 second mention by the talking heads...and today Lybia will be talked up as the greatest miltary conquest since WWII.....Obama the hero..savior of the of steel...intelligent..Godly....a true man of the people.....yes they will yell this from all mountain tops....Puke...

SheepDog-One's picture

'Obama, the greatest warmongerer and conquerer since Kahn'....nevermind of course Obama was elected due to the great public and media outcry to 'END ALL WARS, NOW!'

Yoann's picture

Is that really important anyway ?

400K 405 410K... who cares it's all about the trend, and it's kinda flat nowadays

mayhem_korner's picture

If you're looking at it as some kind of nominal indicator, then yes, it's not giving any insight as to a trend.

BUT...if you understand that what it is saying, it is a very telling series of data.  While there is really no light at the end of the debt tunnel (only papering over or socialized default), if there was a hope it lies in the economy growing.  If the economy at least was on a positive slope, there is some ability to begin remediation.  But the constant prints of 400K+ are evidence of a slow but definitive leak in the underlying economy.  Real wages are losing ground, and nothing drops real wages more than a pink slip.

The debt is the highly-visible lung cancer, but the continuous drub of job losses is in the pancreas and liver and spreading...

monopoly's picture

It is all beyond words. A system so broken that it is impossible to fix. We will just lie our way through this morass day after day until at some point it all comes together in one massive moment of truth. When that will occur, I have no idea, but I have lost faith in my govt. the system and its economic reporting. We are one step closer to anarchy and just make sure you prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I am giving up on this market. It bears no resemblance to reality.

SheepDog-One's picture

I really dont even pay it all much attention anymore, its beyond us. Politicians will save us? They just sit and allow it all...oh sure they put on their puppet show, but in the end theyre all on the same side, not ours. I used to think maybe some business leaders would put a stop to it, but they love their free money too much.

Im just looking past it all and trying somehow to prepare for the worst...what else can you really do?


Yellowhoard's picture

It's official. Jim Cramer has just announced that China's command control economy is more efficient than capitalism.

Two things Jim: The US hasn't had capitalism for over 100 years thanks to to creation of the Fed. And, China steals intellectual property, employs slave labor and has zero environmental standards.

With all due respect Jim, you're an asshole and an idiot.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea, gee I guess we're all a bunch of commies now...the Predator Class loves it.

Tsar Pointless's picture

Oligarchs: "The Commies are coming, the Commies are coming!"

Serfs: "Oh, dear Slave Owners of ours, please save us from these hideous Commies!"

Works every time!

SheepDog-One's picture

The serfs? Hell theyre too fukin stupid to fear whats Gubment cheezy poofs from Walmart all day long on the SNAP card, bitchez!

Yellowhoard's picture

Soon, we will be forced to choose our destroyer. The oligarchs or the political class. There's only so much room at the top when the bottom is shaking the pyramid. I, personally, choose the Stay Puffed Marshmallow Man for my destroyer.

SheepDog-One's picture

Well even South Park just ran a new episode about how things are so bad in the US after Obama took over that even the illegal aliens are fighting the border patrol to get back INTO Mexico.

mayhem_korner's picture



Hit!!  Hit!!

If you can move the boats in Battleship, the game never ends.

Rockfish's picture

They don't fucking care = TDFC


 They don't  fucking care what they say = TDFCWTS

mayhem_korner's picture



The weekly Truth Sleuth alert:

Today's CNBC account of "an improving job market":

New claims for unemployment benefits fell last week and a gauge of labor market trends hit a six-month low, a government report showed on Thursday, pointing to an improvement in the jobs market.

Six-months ago picture of the jobless claims:

Initial weekly unemployment claims decreased to 382,000 this week and last week was revised up to 395,250. The 4 week moving average dropped to 389,500, but is higher than the 4 week moving average from March 12th. Weekly unemployment claims seem to be hovering right above the job creation point of 375,000 per week now. By my count (subject to check), MSM has reported "falling" IJC 17 times in the past 6 months - yet the weekly and 4-week averages are inexplicably higher than then.  Hmmm...
Mr_Wonderful's picture


U.S. "misery index" rises to highest since 1983

while 80% of TV is song and dance.

SheepDog-One's picture

Theyve played that card before too, the Roaring 20's! WHEW look at them flapper girls GO!

Smiddywesson's picture

Half right.  The Fred Astair and Ginger Rogers films were during the 30s.  Also in the 1930s it was horror movies and comedy (Marx Bros) that sold.  Escapism sold, sound familiar?  Those things sell during bad times because it takes people's minds off of their troubles.  For the same reason, they can't keep expensive booze on the shelf right now.  If you are too poor to trade in the car, you can at least come up with the money for the best hooch.

Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Shout with me if you can't wait to see this shitty Philly Fed number at 10:00am......yippppppeeeeeeeeeee!!!