This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Bob Janjuah Dismisses Central Bank Independence Amid Monetary Anarchy

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We discussed Bob Janjuah's must-read perspective of the market just over a week ago and his appearance on Bloomberg TV this morning reiterates that strongly held view that we are in midst of central bank anarchy and the rules of the game continue to change. While earnestly admitting his miss in Q1, on the back of under-estimation of just how incredibly un-independent central banks are (and will be proved to be in an election year), the bearded bear goes on to confirm his view of short term 10% correction in the S&P 500, a mid-year recovery on Bernanke's 'Twist'ing to Obama's pressure, and ultimately back to S&P 500 in the 800pt range (and Dow/Gold to hit 1). Dismissing the don't-fight-the-Fed argument with analogies from 2007's 'you have to dance while the music is playing' and the tick-tick-boom carry trades that so many funds and investors follow now, he reminds the interviewer and the audience of how quickly all the trickle of carry gains are lost and then some when the music stops. Must watch to comprehend how smart money is comprehending the ultimate game theory of today's central bank largesse and the clear non-self-sustaining recoveries in global economies.

 

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:56 | 2355421 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Who does this clown Janjuah think he is?

He should step aside and let serious economists like myself make policy.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:05 | 2355463 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Q2 collapse to ES 800.  Then a Twist-style QE to save the election.  Gotcha, Bob.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:20 | 2355533 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Some one hit this guy with a Taser - several times. That will Don King up his appearance hair wise, and might energize enough brain cells so that he can do intelligent analysis for a few months to make up for this tripe. My dog barfed up a better opinion on the carpet this morning.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:39 | 2355769 Chump
Chump's picture

I don't know.  I don't trust his hair, but I definitely don't trust your beard.

I'm getting confused with all this thinking, so I'm off to watch some television.

/American attention span

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:10 | 2356515 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Central Bank Independence?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:58 | 2355422 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Is big money smart money.

Big money is smart money.

Money is big smart money.

Smart money is big money.

Money is big smart money.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:02 | 2355445 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

q99x2

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/844956/wife-divorces-sex-mad-elderly-bi...

A young wife divorced her 85-year-old billionaire husband after just three months of marriage because he was too sex-crazed.

...

But the blonde bombshell said she was constantly groped, and said her husband drew up a list of what he expected from his third wife.

The octogenarian wanted his wife to strut around the house in underwear, French-kiss him at a whim and was also required to let him feel her breasts at his command.

The constant demands took their toll on the then 22-year-old, who took up smoking and claims her hair began to fall out and she developed rashes on her body from the badgering for sex.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:49 | 2355820 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Captain Viagra married the wrong whore.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:50 | 2355832 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

i would've required she walk around nude; and have her perform felletio on a regular basis.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 16:51 | 2356040 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Oh just slip the old codger a rufie or offer a massage that happens to involve chloroform. Be creative.

 

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:10 | 2356520 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Christ, this new generation just does not understand the concept of having to work for their money.  In my day, a gold-digger earned her pay.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:58 | 2355427 ekm
ekm's picture

Wow, wow, wow.

Since when people believe that any central bank in the world has ever been independent and who are those who believe this?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:04 | 2355457 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

I think they are dependent (on political forces) but uncoordinated.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:58 | 2355433 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

"reiterates that strongly held view that we are in midst of central bank anarchy"

Someone confuses Anarchy with Chaos.


Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:22 | 2355523 lazarus
lazarus's picture

+1.  Central bank anarchy = central bank independence2.

      "Central bank clusterf@ck," perhaps.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:31 | 2355739 Manthong
Manthong's picture

I think the perspective is a little skewed here.

Central bank anarchy is not the issue here, it’s central bank totalitarianism.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:02 | 2355446 Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

HIS RIGHT

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:02 | 2355449 Catullus
Catullus's picture

That anarchy is why they know they have to have a global central bank. There's always an ability to run on a fractional reserve banking system if you're not in that particular system. Like September 18, 2008. The bank run started by someone in another country pulling their MMF out. All bank runs will be global as long as is there is not global central bank.

It's also why the next crisis is guaranteed to happen.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:09 | 2355480 MunX
MunX's picture

Dancing is dangerous?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 17:17 | 2356146 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Ever Dance With The Devil In The Pale Moon Light?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gfMXEmCew4 (0:18)

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:14 | 2355509 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

So if Bob thinks that DOW = Gold and the S&P at 800, does this also assume that S&P = gold and that gold will be priced at US$800?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:04 | 2355669 oddjob
oddjob's picture

The man said DOW not S&P, putz.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:48 | 2355789 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

And why would only the DOW be 1:1 with gold? Why not the S&P?

Could that be because all the goldbug wishful thinkers out there prefer a higher number?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:11 | 2355692 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Yo Bokken - No, you should do research before vomiting onto the screen. Let me provide you a simple If, Then, Else example.

If Dow = 13,000 today and S&P is at 1400 approx today, and S&P goes to 800, and Gold will be 1:1 with Dow,

Then Gold will = 7400 approx.

Else - trake a basic math course

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:42 | 2355753 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

So you're basically ASSuming that the sell off in S&P will equal a sell off in the DOW, whilst simultaneously ASSuming that Gold (despite an equity sell off!) will rise to $7400,-

 

That's not basic math (I'm quite capable of deducting 40-ish % off 13000 thank you very much), that's just plain wishful thinking with lot's of ASSumptions to fill the gaps. Stop tripping on acid dude!

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:47 | 2355813 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Bokken - reading comprehension is an important skill in life and certainly in trading.

I merely answered your initial question, which related to the math involved in a forecast by the author of the article.

Now that you have been empowered with basic math, if you disagree with the author 's forecast, use your limited skill set to reply to him.

Stop wasting my time, or you will be outed as a clown on acid. 

A good deed never goes unpunished ..... 

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 16:17 | 2355939 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

i don't think you know what the S&P is. Its a component of the DOW determined by S&P the ratings agency.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:17 | 2355522 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

It actually means something like GOLD $6,000, but I have not run the numbers.   

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:24 | 2355528 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

I wouldn't call it "monetary anarchy" at all.

It's a co-ordinated, global Central Bank bond monetization/currency devaluation program. Each CB is taking turns printing money to buy their Government's bonds. Just this morning the BOJ announced they are going to be printing next in order to meet a 1% "inflation target". So they are next. Then the BOE will have another go, then the Fed and then the ECB will do another LTRO. This is how multiple currencies are sequentially de-valued in a fiat monetary system without providing a lasting under-valuation "advantage" to any particular one. This is pure monetary insanity, but I wouldn't call it anarchy.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:25 | 2355554 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bob is your average financier.  So S&P 800?  Where does the dxy go in this scenario?  Up?  lol....

This is why financiers and economists who don't understand that fiat currency has zero intrinsic value are either duping themselves or others and the system will never be fixed until both groups understand this concept.  Until then, Bob, Ben, Timmah, et al, are all in the same sinking boat.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 16:00 | 2355864 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Fiat currency has tremendous value as long as it is accepted as legal tender for hard assets.  I only make that obvious point because while fiat currency may not have intrinsic value that doesn't mean you necessarily buy all your hard assets now.  There is the legitimate concept of trying to buy hard assets at cheaper real prices during a general collapse.  Admittedly, that is a bit dangerous but I will save some fiat powder to try.  Depends on your risk tolerance.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 16:31 | 2355975 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

The bigger problem is that there's no *intrinsic* value in *anything,* absent the context in which you're trading.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:28 | 2355557 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I think that this time everybody's got to get on the same side of the trade of selling May and get back in during August ahead of Jackson hole, and try to front run the free money. This time it won't work as planned and a lot of people will get burned

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:36 | 2355586 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Central banks are "independent" from everything except their private owners. Like everything else their main goal is the survival and growth of the FED and the private owners. If you look from that perspective, the moves the FED makes are less of a mystery.

What is growth? If gold still buys the same 3 things over the last couple of centuries, isn't what is decribed as "growth" is just a derivitive of inflation when measured in monetary terms?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 17:07 | 2356084 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Are you assuming a level population? That'd seem to be a "world without friction" level corner cut, IMHO.

Are you measuring gold against 3 other commodities only? Also a radical oversimplification.

What's your context?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:13 | 2356533 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

I didn't expect the bloody Spanish Inquisition!  Inflation is what happens to people who cannot drive the terms by which they are paid.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:53 | 2355639 newstreet
newstreet's picture

Great.  I'll get to cover the ES short opened on this guys call down at 1000.  So it took 18 months, so what?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:15 | 2355703 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

No worries....the clowns on acid on CNBC are saying that the Europe debt crisis is over. The ECB will stand behind all debt and everything is fine.

Buy, buy, buy....where's the problem ?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:45 | 2355793 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Somebody should tell that interviewer he is not a black sportscaster.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:48 | 2355812 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Go Long Privatized (U.S.) Prison Corps! Debt!

Thats a FOR! SURE!! Winner.

 

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 16:59 | 2356064 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Analogous to Fannie and Freddie..."housing" with "implicit gov support".

3 hots and a cot. I call top bunk.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:15 | 2356536 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Gulag-Casino ... Yea!

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:56 | 2355854 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

Blah blah. Last time I saw Bobby Bear featured on ZH he said the S&P to 800 by THE END OF Q1 2012. Great April fool's joke, Bob. 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!