This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Bob Janjuah Explains Why The Worst Is Still Ahead Of Us

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The other global strategic thinker with a decent white beard, Bob Janjuah of Nomura, sees weaker growth, weaker earnings and a great deal more volatility in the short- and medium-term for the US. Not a fan of the decoupling miracle, Janjuah explains (following our last discussion of his thoughts) in this Bloomberg TV interview that US data is showing only a temporary improvement with the forthcoming fiscal drag into next year likely to slow the economy to a practical standstill. Noting that 'The worst is ahead of us' he sees the implications of the hard-default he expects for Greece in early 2012 (that is not priced into the market) as very concerning with a cluster of defaults more than possible. Uncomfortably viewing the banking sector as a curse (and not a cure) for our problems, he sees the Japanese Zombie bank experience playing out which guarantees sustainable growth is not around the corner and suggests we would be far better off medium-term if bank defaults occurred and the painful medicine is taken.

The banking sector risks the threat of taking down governments and while emerging market financials may seem flush with capital, it is the Western banking systems that dominate. He concludes the interview with some positives focused on up-in-quality and up-in-capital structure allocations, which fits with our view of the world, and notes he has no financial sector debt or equity exposure in any of his portfolios.

 

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:03 | 1939271 Fortunes Favor
Fortunes Favor's picture

Does this panic selling prove an investment thesis wrong? It does if you believe jumping off a cliff is right because everyone else is doing it.

http://rosenthalcapital.com/blog/2011/12/precious-metals-outlook-as-liquidity-crisis-eases-look-for-precious-metal-leadership-resurgence/

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:06 | 1939275 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Where have I read that before?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:14 | 1939294 trav7777
trav7777's picture

hmmm, could be a couple places.

trav7777.stoppimpingyourfuckingblogonZH.com/gfy

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:16 | 1939305 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

+100

Lol, I like that link a lot!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:16 | 1939306 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

agreed

shoveitupyourass.idontknowjackshitaboutwebsitessoiuseagenericbloggingplatform.com

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:21 | 1939321 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Agreed re overpimping and humor, so + 1.

But, we Bearings don´t know much about computer / web stuff, so some of us are stuck with the ¨blogspots¨, etc.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:54 | 1939415 Triggernometry
Triggernometry's picture

"we would be far better off medium-term if bank defaults occurred and the painful medicine is taken"

Damn right, we should have pulled an Iceland before Iceland pulled an Iceland.

But since that will never happen, I have a better idea- let's start the First National Zero Hedge Bank!! We can set it up so that we rarely have to come in, while we sign each others shit with no knowledge of any documents; then if we ever have problems, we'll fill out a 2 page application for federal funds, cash out, and get bankruptcy protection. We can even set up Robot-Trader as the fall guy.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:33 | 1939514 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:43 | 1939562 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Sorry about your job loss at bofa

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 17:13 | 1939924 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

ON AN IMPORTANT AND RELATED NOTE:

The 'Republican Jewish Coalition' has declined to invite Ron Paul to their nationally televised debate on Dec. 7th. Apparently, Paul is 'misguided' and'extreme'. More here: http://www.infowars.com/republican-jewish-coalition-bars-ron-paul-from-d...

 

You can email the RJC here: rjc@rjchq.org

And you can reach their ladies' group here: Women@RJCHQ.org

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:23 | 1939327 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

Mmmmm, spam.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 13:11 | 1941579 covert
covert's picture

keep shorting.

http://expose2.wordpress.com

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:09 | 1939276 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Bob Janjuah Explains Why The Worst Is Still Ahead Of Us

All of it is still in front of us. All of it.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:14 | 1939298 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

I agree on both ways to interpret your comment CD:

1)  All of the future IS still in front of us

2)  LOTS more BAD stuff in front of us as well.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:15 | 1939299 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

No, it's not. My favorite beers have ALREADY gone up in price.

You heartless SOB.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:35 | 1939366 Note to self
Note to self's picture

Time to start brewing your own.  I view it as a fundamental survival skill going forward.  Hard cider too, cause wild apples are pretty easy to come by. May even becoema form of currency for a while.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:02 | 1939448 s2man
s2man's picture

Planted my orchard last spring... I found an easy way to fortify that cider, without distillation; put your barrel outside in freezing weather.  The water freezes, and you pour off the high-octane "brandy". :-D

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:15 | 1939484 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Yep.  Good old fashioned method.

Ice beer. too.  Ice wine too.  Yum.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:11 | 1939478 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Distlled spirits were a currency in early America since there wasn't any coinage in some areas.

I make by own hooch.  Distill and brew.  It's good to have a skill.

Been experimenting with wild yeast and some "prison" style recipes for tough times ahead.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 20:08 | 1940422 obejoyful
obejoyful's picture

Most useful links I have seen for some time. Thanks

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:28 | 1939522 DOT
DOT's picture

As we speak, some very tasty malt is mashing !

Highly recommended "hobby".

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:28 | 1939345 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

3 years of total fantasy, riding on the tsunami of trillions of printed up dollars to paper over the fact that we're at 100% debt/GDP, a bankrupt nation by any measure!

The ride is about to end, abruptly and nasty, just like Mr Bonestripper.

Nothing But Trouble: "Mr. Bonestripper" - YouTube

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:56 | 1939423 Seer
Seer's picture

I'd say that we're not looking in the correct direction, that it ISN'T in FRONT of us, but rather, we're (still) STANDING in it (and we're pretending we're not)!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:59 | 1939433 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

No, only 85% is still in front of us. Make your broker is neither a systemically exposed entity in a systemically exposed country. THat is the SINGLE BIGGEST RISK for all the trades here. Where do we have a banking system which is not a fiat system today?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:00 | 1939438 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Or get whatever you own in physical possesion (Gold), avoid book entry.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 16:05 | 1939642 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Go physical!  Silver and Gold!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azcj749wMIU

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:03 | 1939450 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

There is only one non fiat no lender of last resot, bank notes emitted by banks and not the central bank. This is Hong-Kong.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:07 | 1939464 Tramp Stamper
Tramp Stamper's picture

Maryam will you be my babymama? Ill even spring for a nose job

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 22:19 | 1940635 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Bingo, and thats for sure.  We haven't seen anything yet, all we did was to delay the inevitable and the inevitable is just around the corner.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:10 | 1939285 fourchan
fourchan's picture

Right on brother.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:18 | 1939311 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ green

At this point I would agree that the future looks much worse.  A Japanese Zombie like scenario (no growth for a long time) is about the best we can hope for.

In One Bearing´s Opinion, FWTW.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:28 | 1939346 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The difference is this Zombie is heavily radiated.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:15 | 1939486 s2man
s2man's picture

Agreed.  I hope for a zombie, muddle-through, lost decade, whatever you want to call it economy.  Though I am preparing for a sudden collapse...

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:10 | 1939290 stop.snitching
stop.snitching's picture

When was this aired?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:19 | 1939310 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

You can click the YouTube link in the video and read the description:

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Bob Janjuah, the co-head of cross-asset allocation strategy at Nomura International Plc, talks about the U.S. economy, outlook for European economies in 2012 and investment strategy. He speaks with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse." (Source: Bloomberg)

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:21 | 1939318 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

So today.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:25 | 1939331 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

you're pretty sharp there dude.

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:13 | 1939293 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Utility banking is the future says Bob. I'm not so sure. Governments separating themselves from banking is coming. Again not sure.

Preservation of capital is the future... yep.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:14 | 1939297 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

I think Meredith Whitney's predictions on muni defaults are just starting to come to fruition.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:17 | 1939307 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

And suddenly I might add. Let's get that on our 'to watch' list along with PrimeX.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:22 | 1939322 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

About the time CNBC guests started calling her a failure in a sweaty lather, it was time to add to her winning positions.

It amazes me how CNBC can always find someone to say anything, no matter how obviously retarded it might be.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:26 | 1939336 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

what happened today?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 16:56 | 1939870 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Just read bondbuyer dot com religiously, there were a couple defaults yesterday (it being the first of the month), small deals, but indicative of things to come imho.  Basically muni projects getting in over their heads and not having the financial wherewithal to make it on their own.  They used to turn to the states to bail them out, but now the states are in austerity mode, and hard to justify bailing out failed muni projects while education and healthcare are being cut.

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:31 | 1939349 fourchan
fourchan's picture

detroit will go bankrupt within 2 months, i dont think the national news has picked this up yet.

the ignorant and corrupt masses in charge experiment is over in detroit with predictable results.

on a side note, its degenrated to racist name calling by the mayor, as is usual here.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:11 | 1939407 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Recently spoke with the County Sheriff and he let me in on a secret. EVERY CITY IN MY COUNTY WILL BE GOING BANKRUPT WITHIN A YEAR'S PERIOD OF TIME.  Good fun to come.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:39 | 1939547 DOT
DOT's picture

DHS will keep the good Sheriff in business.

The social costs and maintenance of the infrastructure is crushing. Debt Service anyone ?

How many could survive the next flood/hurricaine/blizzard/riot  ?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:25 | 1939333 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Basically - he's saying "take the pain now" and grow quickly later, versus slow death. Problem is that people in US and Europe are too used to comfort - maybe not Europe, but definitely the US. For the US the pain would be too much for a group of people used to instant gratificiation. 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:28 | 1939347 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

Private banking, through their investment firms, hedge funds and various financial services, sold hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of debt, making billions and billions in profit, then when that fact became widely recognized and the LIBOR and EURIBOR froze (inter-bank lending --- not a 4% mortgage default rate as the propaganda specialists would have us believe), public monies are used to bail them out repeatedly, then they want global austerity programs to continue to fund their criminality.

Meanwhile, the Greek shipping industry pays no taxes, likewise the majority of American-based multinationals and corporations, exemplified by the major jobs offshorer, GE, whose CEO the latest Wall Street sock puppet in the White House, President Obama, appointed as his “jobs czar.”

Presently, the public is accosted by brainless twits on NPR and Fox and The Economist, the kind who are far more familiar with their stinky rectums than any actual economics or global finance --- who falsely claim the unemployment rate is falling, principally because in November 150,000 full-time jobs disappeared, while 120,000, mostly part-time  and several days only-temp jobs, were “created” in November.

Now, let us really demand true change!

First, we require freedom of the press today in America.  We have witnessed criminal propaganda spewing forth from the corporate media, best demonstrated by planted stories by Dick Cheney in the New York Times, dutifully written by Judy Miller (who would later go on to a high-paying position with the neocon Manhattan Institute), while Chris Hedges had to quit the same New York Times as they refused to allow Hedges to write critically about the Iraq War perpetrated by the Bush Administration.

Next, immediately nationalize the Federal Reserve, along with the top ten banks in America, and reinstitute the financial transaction tax (which previously existed from 1914 to 1966).

And most certainly, initiate full tax recovery on the over 70% of American corporations who refuse to pay federal taxes, while repatriating that estimated $12 trillion in untaxed capital parked offshore.

Following the same pro-American worker sentiment as the US Congress once did in the 1800s with the passage of the Alien Contract Labor Law, institute laws against the chronic offshoring of American jobs and the creation of jobs offshore, instead of in America.

In other words, an end to labor arbitrage and labor deflation.  (The only jobs which should be offshored are those 40,000 lobbyist jobs.)

Now every president, from the present bozo in the White House, back to Reagan, has repeated the same, exact mantra:

“Those jobs are gone and they’re never coming back.”

If their only talent is to repeat the same drivel over and over again, it’s time to offshore their useless asses as well!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:35 | 1939367 fourchan
fourchan's picture

so your not enjoying the seasonal joke of improved employment?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:35 | 1939365 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

If this guy is really correct.

Then gold will collapse in a heap with everything else.

But I doubt that will occur.

TPTB will never allow it to happen.

I'm betting on both gold and the SPY making new highs next year.

Janjuah is another potential "Dead Body" I've added to the pile.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 09:31 | 1941290 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

On other words, central banks will QE endlessly.  

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:39 | 1939368 brandy night rocks
brandy night rocks's picture

How I love Bob

His eyes, how they twinkle!  His truthiness so frothy and foamy!  His cheeks so Rosie with references to Kevin his homie.

His bearish little mouth drawn up like a bow, and the beard on his chin is as white as the snow!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:53 | 1939413 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

O.T

I see kitco's pecious metals charts show a crime seen once again.

Fuck you,Tiny Timmy,and ButtLick Benny..........

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:54 | 1939416 littleguy
littleguy's picture

Oh Maryam, how I adore thee.

Stunning.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:58 | 1939428 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

I don't think Japan was all that bad - they did produce money to replace credit after all.

However the wealth shift from young to old was very damaging from a social perspective - but still its growth was far more sustainable then the US "growth" over the last 20 years albeit still depending on US consumer growth.

Japan just does not have any natural resourses - thats its curse. along with living on top of a massive tectonic fault.

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:11 | 1939431 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

avoid fiscal drag!

invest in an accounting myth w/ us!

plus, we $ell derivatives for the over/under for total $Tril$ off-balance sheet exposure too!

leverage your counterparty risk!

  • win a new car!
  • a faux fur!
  • a Trillion dollars in IOUs!

CALL NOW!!!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:04 | 1939454 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

I agree with him. Look at the French situation and the US is even worse.

 

France Sovereign Debt Downgraded – Debt to GDP Breaks 90%! (But US at 96% Debt to GDP)

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:07 | 1939465 Logans_Run
Logans_Run's picture

I wish I were in Bob's seat. I think she is hot!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 17:35 | 1940000 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Her accent is absolutely delicious.

On another note, Bob's points are solid here, especially about corporations handing the stock back to the stock holders to skate the IRS.  Anything to cut cost!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:08 | 1939468 electricgorilla
electricgorilla's picture

Freeze frame the video at 00:06. I think Bob has a few other things on his mind besides finance.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:09 | 1939470 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Is it just me or does she look like she knows how to suck dick real real?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 16:09 | 1939662 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

SD, is that really you, you slut? Bad form... . Get your mind out of the gutter and tell us what you are seeing across the pond. 

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 09:42 | 1941296 falak pema
falak pema's picture

wait...you never know he may be well hung, then you are toast to his glandular resurgence. In the gutter you go. Hat or no hat! 

The pond is not dry but full of acid rain and plastic drain out. As for seeing in this Merkel mist its like being at Teutoburg forrest with Roman legion. Wait until the Oracle of german maidschen has spoken on Dec 9.

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 17:36 | 1940002 DutchR
DutchR's picture

No

She's hot, but then again you got a new governement so it maybe the pink glasses...

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 05:20 | 1941180 Hober Mallow
Hober Mallow's picture

spot on, exactly what I was thinking.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:09 | 1939473 Amused2Death
Amused2Death's picture

I like Bob but has he been right on anything lately?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:10 | 1939475 sabra1
sabra1's picture

that huge intervention a couple days ago, was a guise for europe, when actually, it was a bailout for the US banks again! look at bank stocks today! right in our face! now, these US banks are in asia! take the hint people!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:15 | 1939487 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

If you Love Your Family and Friends.. Give Silver and Gold for Christmas!

or give it to them for no reason at all.. for those of you trying to stay off Home Land Securities watch List for Loving God.

They might be able to use it to bribe you out of Terrorist Jail.

ANYONE! including American Citizens can be judged a threat and Jailed FOREVER! without a Judge or Court Order!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUHh1iqe43w

WHAT PART DO YOU NOT GET???

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6ThanSzG_w

 

American (Home Grown) Terrorist,  Look Out for the following.. Cheat Sheet and then report to Home Land Security!

 

Love God? Then You are a Terrorist.

Love the Constitution? Then You are a Terrorist.

Do you store more than 1 weeks' worth of food for Hurricane Season? Then You are a Terrorist.

Do you store more than 1 weeks' worth of food in the winter? Then You are a Terrorist.

Do you have more than 1 weeks' worth of your favorite cookies? Then You are a Terrorist.

Do you use nail polish on your ammo before going diving in case of a shark encounter? Then You are a Terrorist.

Do you weather proof your ammo for hunting? Then You are a Terrorist.

 Do you own Gold and Silver with the intent of using it for money when the Federal Reserve Prints the U.S. Dollar into oblivion? Then You are a Terrorist.

Do you think that Congresses insider trading is Treason against America? Then You are a Terrorist.

Do you think that Senates insider trading is Treason against America? Then You are a Terrorist.

Do you think that the United States Military should NEVER! Stand against Americans? Then you are a Terrorist.

Do you disagree with anything the Government of the United States does? Then you are a Terrorist.

Do you talk badly about the Government of the United States? Then you are a Terrorist.

  

So to any and ALL! of you Prepper's! ALL! of YOU(s) are Terrorists!

  

So to all of you God Loving, Patriotic and Constitutional Conversationalists.. I say FUCK YOU! I am calling Home Land Security RIGHT NOW! and turning ALL of You in! for the Reward Monies!

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:46 | 1939488 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It annoys me when somebody makes a make a comment like "I don't think the U.S. will go into recession". Especially since we have been in recession since 2000.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:15 | 1939490 kahunabear
kahunabear's picture

Oh, Poppycock! This guy is too grounded in reality. Print and believe money is free, credit is unlimited and cans can always be kicked into someone else's lifetime. Sit back, don't worry, be happy!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:55 | 1939597 hollowbody
hollowbody's picture

I was right with you there til you broke out the nail polish..... Terrorist deviant

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:19 | 1939500 riley martini
riley martini's picture

 The banksters run the risk of bringing down governments. Greece, Italy, Spain who is next my guess France.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 16:04 | 1939636 apu123
apu123's picture

I this situation could get resolved one way or the other.  I got out of the market in June of this year and booked a nice profit but I am getting frustrated sitting around and eating through my principle.  Now I hear Geithner is heading to Europe so we can have another six months of rumors and can kicking.

It used to be you could do your homework, get a couple of good dividend paying stocks and do ok.  Now fundamentals and technicals don't matter, everything is powered by rumors that those in the club get cut in on and could wipe me out with a couple of bad moves.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!