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Bob Janjuah Explains Why The Worst Is Still Ahead Of Us
The other global strategic thinker with a decent white beard, Bob Janjuah of Nomura, sees weaker growth, weaker earnings and a great deal more volatility in the short- and medium-term for the US. Not a fan of the decoupling miracle, Janjuah explains (following our last discussion of his thoughts) in this Bloomberg TV interview that US data is showing only a temporary improvement with the forthcoming fiscal drag into next year likely to slow the economy to a practical standstill. Noting that 'The worst is ahead of us' he sees the implications of the hard-default he expects for Greece in early 2012 (that is not priced into the market) as very concerning with a cluster of defaults more than possible. Uncomfortably viewing the banking sector as a curse (and not a cure) for our problems, he sees the Japanese Zombie bank experience playing out which guarantees sustainable growth is not around the corner and suggests we would be far better off medium-term if bank defaults occurred and the painful medicine is taken.
The banking sector risks the threat of taking down governments and while emerging market financials may seem flush with capital, it is the Western banking systems that dominate. He concludes the interview with some positives focused on up-in-quality and up-in-capital structure allocations, which fits with our view of the world, and notes he has no financial sector debt or equity exposure in any of his portfolios.
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Does this panic selling prove an investment thesis wrong? It does if you believe jumping off a cliff is right because everyone else is doing it.
http://rosenthalcapital.com/blog/2011/12/precious-metals-outlook-as-liquidity-crisis-eases-look-for-precious-metal-leadership-resurgence/
Where have I read that before?
hmmm, could be a couple places.
trav7777.stoppimpingyourfuckingblogonZH.com/gfy
+100
Lol, I like that link a lot!
agreed
shoveitupyourass.idontknowjackshitaboutwebsitessoiuseagenericbloggingplatform.com
Agreed re overpimping and humor, so + 1.
But, we Bearings don´t know much about computer / web stuff, so some of us are stuck with the ¨blogspots¨, etc.
"we would be far better off medium-term if bank defaults occurred and the painful medicine is taken"
Damn right, we should have pulled an Iceland before Iceland pulled an Iceland.
But since that will never happen, I have a better idea- let's start the First National Zero Hedge Bank!! We can set it up so that we rarely have to come in, while we sign each others shit with no knowledge of any documents; then if we ever have problems, we'll fill out a 2 page application for federal funds, cash out, and get bankruptcy protection. We can even set up Robot-Trader as the fall guy.
.
Sorry about your job loss at bofa
ON AN IMPORTANT AND RELATED NOTE:
The 'Republican Jewish Coalition' has declined to invite Ron Paul to their nationally televised debate on Dec. 7th. Apparently, Paul is 'misguided' and'extreme'. More here: http://www.infowars.com/republican-jewish-coalition-bars-ron-paul-from-d...
You can email the RJC here: rjc@rjchq.org
And you can reach their ladies' group here: Women@RJCHQ.org
Mmmmm, spam.
keep shorting.
http://expose2.wordpress.com
Bob Janjuah Explains Why The Worst Is Still Ahead Of Us
All of it is still in front of us. All of it.
+ 1
I agree on both ways to interpret your comment CD:
1) All of the future IS still in front of us
2) LOTS more BAD stuff in front of us as well.
No, it's not. My favorite beers have ALREADY gone up in price.
You heartless SOB.
Time to start brewing your own. I view it as a fundamental survival skill going forward. Hard cider too, cause wild apples are pretty easy to come by. May even becoema form of currency for a while.
Planted my orchard last spring... I found an easy way to fortify that cider, without distillation; put your barrel outside in freezing weather. The water freezes, and you pour off the high-octane "brandy". :-D
Yep. Good old fashioned method.
Ice beer. too. Ice wine too. Yum.
Distlled spirits were a currency in early America since there wasn't any coinage in some areas.
I make by own hooch. Distill and brew. It's good to have a skill.
Been experimenting with wild yeast and some "prison" style recipes for tough times ahead.
http://www.instructables.com/id/Make-Beer/
http://www.ehow.com/video_2358228_the-economic-advantage-casting-bullets...
http://www.instructables.com/id/How-to-make-a-still/
Most useful links I have seen for some time. Thanks
As we speak, some very tasty malt is mashing !
Highly recommended "hobby".
3 years of total fantasy, riding on the tsunami of trillions of printed up dollars to paper over the fact that we're at 100% debt/GDP, a bankrupt nation by any measure!
The ride is about to end, abruptly and nasty, just like Mr Bonestripper.
Nothing But Trouble: "Mr. Bonestripper" - YouTube
I'd say that we're not looking in the correct direction, that it ISN'T in FRONT of us, but rather, we're (still) STANDING in it (and we're pretending we're not)!
No, only 85% is still in front of us. Make your broker is neither a systemically exposed entity in a systemically exposed country. THat is the SINGLE BIGGEST RISK for all the trades here. Where do we have a banking system which is not a fiat system today?
Or get whatever you own in physical possesion (Gold), avoid book entry.
Go physical! Silver and Gold!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azcj749wMIU
There is only one non fiat no lender of last resot, bank notes emitted by banks and not the central bank. This is Hong-Kong.
Maryam will you be my babymama? Ill even spring for a nose job
Bingo, and thats for sure. We haven't seen anything yet, all we did was to delay the inevitable and the inevitable is just around the corner.
Right on brother.
+ green
At this point I would agree that the future looks much worse. A Japanese Zombie like scenario (no growth for a long time) is about the best we can hope for.
In One Bearing´s Opinion, FWTW.
The difference is this Zombie is heavily radiated.
Agreed. I hope for a zombie, muddle-through, lost decade, whatever you want to call it economy. Though I am preparing for a sudden collapse...
When was this aired?
You can click the YouTube link in the video and read the description:
So today.
you're pretty sharp there dude.
Utility banking is the future says Bob. I'm not so sure. Governments separating themselves from banking is coming. Again not sure.
Preservation of capital is the future... yep.
I think Meredith Whitney's predictions on muni defaults are just starting to come to fruition.
And suddenly I might add. Let's get that on our 'to watch' list along with PrimeX.
About the time CNBC guests started calling her a failure in a sweaty lather, it was time to add to her winning positions.
It amazes me how CNBC can always find someone to say anything, no matter how obviously retarded it might be.
what happened today?
Just read bondbuyer dot com religiously, there were a couple defaults yesterday (it being the first of the month), small deals, but indicative of things to come imho. Basically muni projects getting in over their heads and not having the financial wherewithal to make it on their own. They used to turn to the states to bail them out, but now the states are in austerity mode, and hard to justify bailing out failed muni projects while education and healthcare are being cut.
detroit will go bankrupt within 2 months, i dont think the national news has picked this up yet.
the ignorant and corrupt masses in charge experiment is over in detroit with predictable results.
on a side note, its degenrated to racist name calling by the mayor, as is usual here.
Recently spoke with the County Sheriff and he let me in on a secret. EVERY CITY IN MY COUNTY WILL BE GOING BANKRUPT WITHIN A YEAR'S PERIOD OF TIME. Good fun to come.
DHS will keep the good Sheriff in business.
The social costs and maintenance of the infrastructure is crushing. Debt Service anyone ?
How many could survive the next flood/hurricaine/blizzard/riot ?
Basically - he's saying "take the pain now" and grow quickly later, versus slow death. Problem is that people in US and Europe are too used to comfort - maybe not Europe, but definitely the US. For the US the pain would be too much for a group of people used to instant gratificiation.
Private banking, through their investment firms, hedge funds and various financial services, sold hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of debt, making billions and billions in profit, then when that fact became widely recognized and the LIBOR and EURIBOR froze (inter-bank lending --- not a 4% mortgage default rate as the propaganda specialists would have us believe), public monies are used to bail them out repeatedly, then they want global austerity programs to continue to fund their criminality.
Meanwhile, the Greek shipping industry pays no taxes, likewise the majority of American-based multinationals and corporations, exemplified by the major jobs offshorer, GE, whose CEO the latest Wall Street sock puppet in the White House, President Obama, appointed as his “jobs czar.”
Presently, the public is accosted by brainless twits on NPR and Fox and The Economist, the kind who are far more familiar with their stinky rectums than any actual economics or global finance --- who falsely claim the unemployment rate is falling, principally because in November 150,000 full-time jobs disappeared, while 120,000, mostly part-time and several days only-temp jobs, were “created” in November.
Now, let us really demand true change!
First, we require freedom of the press today in America. We have witnessed criminal propaganda spewing forth from the corporate media, best demonstrated by planted stories by Dick Cheney in the New York Times, dutifully written by Judy Miller (who would later go on to a high-paying position with the neocon Manhattan Institute), while Chris Hedges had to quit the same New York Times as they refused to allow Hedges to write critically about the Iraq War perpetrated by the Bush Administration.
Next, immediately nationalize the Federal Reserve, along with the top ten banks in America, and reinstitute the financial transaction tax (which previously existed from 1914 to 1966).
And most certainly, initiate full tax recovery on the over 70% of American corporations who refuse to pay federal taxes, while repatriating that estimated $12 trillion in untaxed capital parked offshore.
Following the same pro-American worker sentiment as the US Congress once did in the 1800s with the passage of the Alien Contract Labor Law, institute laws against the chronic offshoring of American jobs and the creation of jobs offshore, instead of in America.
In other words, an end to labor arbitrage and labor deflation. (The only jobs which should be offshored are those 40,000 lobbyist jobs.)
Now every president, from the present bozo in the White House, back to Reagan, has repeated the same, exact mantra:
“Those jobs are gone and they’re never coming back.”
If their only talent is to repeat the same drivel over and over again, it’s time to offshore their useless asses as well!
so your not enjoying the seasonal joke of improved employment?
If this guy is really correct.
Then gold will collapse in a heap with everything else.
But I doubt that will occur.
TPTB will never allow it to happen.
I'm betting on both gold and the SPY making new highs next year.
Janjuah is another potential "Dead Body" I've added to the pile.
On other words, central banks will QE endlessly.
How I love Bob
His eyes, how they twinkle! His truthiness so frothy and foamy! His cheeks so Rosie with references to Kevin his homie.
His bearish little mouth drawn up like a bow, and the beard on his chin is as white as the snow!
O.T
I see kitco's pecious metals charts show a crime seen once again.
Fuck you,Tiny Timmy,and ButtLick Benny..........
Oh Maryam, how I adore thee.
Stunning.
I don't think Japan was all that bad - they did produce money to replace credit after all.
However the wealth shift from young to old was very damaging from a social perspective - but still its growth was far more sustainable then the US "growth" over the last 20 years albeit still depending on US consumer growth.
Japan just does not have any natural resourses - thats its curse. along with living on top of a massive tectonic fault.
avoid fiscal drag!
invest in an accounting myth w/ us!
plus, we $ell derivatives for the over/under for total $Tril$ off-balance sheet exposure too!
leverage your counterparty risk!
CALL NOW!!!
I agree with him. Look at the French situation and the US is even worse.
France Sovereign Debt Downgraded – Debt to GDP Breaks 90%! (But US at 96% Debt to GDP)http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/
I wish I were in Bob's seat. I think she is hot!
Her accent is absolutely delicious.
On another note, Bob's points are solid here, especially about corporations handing the stock back to the stock holders to skate the IRS. Anything to cut cost!
Freeze frame the video at 00:06. I think Bob has a few other things on his mind besides finance.
Is it just me or does she look like she knows how to suck dick real real?
SD, is that really you, you slut? Bad form... . Get your mind out of the gutter and tell us what you are seeing across the pond.
wait...you never know he may be well hung, then you are toast to his glandular resurgence. In the gutter you go. Hat or no hat!
The pond is not dry but full of acid rain and plastic drain out. As for seeing in this Merkel mist its like being at Teutoburg forrest with Roman legion. Wait until the Oracle of german maidschen has spoken on Dec 9.
No
She's hot, but then again you got a new governement so it maybe the pink glasses...
spot on, exactly what I was thinking.
I like Bob but has he been right on anything lately?
that huge intervention a couple days ago, was a guise for europe, when actually, it was a bailout for the US banks again! look at bank stocks today! right in our face! now, these US banks are in asia! take the hint people!
If you Love Your Family and Friends.. Give Silver and Gold for Christmas!
or give it to them for no reason at all.. for those of you trying to stay off Home Land Securities watch List for Loving God.
They might be able to use it to bribe you out of Terrorist Jail.
ANYONE! including American Citizens can be judged a threat and Jailed FOREVER! without a Judge or Court Order!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUHh1iqe43w
WHAT PART DO YOU NOT GET???
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6ThanSzG_w
American (Home Grown) Terrorist, Look Out for the following.. Cheat Sheet and then report to Home Land Security!
Love God? Then You are a Terrorist.
Love the Constitution? Then You are a Terrorist.
Do you store more than 1 weeks' worth of food for Hurricane Season? Then You are a Terrorist.
Do you store more than 1 weeks' worth of food in the winter? Then You are a Terrorist.
Do you have more than 1 weeks' worth of your favorite cookies? Then You are a Terrorist.
Do you use nail polish on your ammo before going diving in case of a shark encounter? Then You are a Terrorist.
Do you weather proof your ammo for hunting? Then You are a Terrorist.
Do you own Gold and Silver with the intent of using it for money when the Federal Reserve Prints the U.S. Dollar into oblivion? Then You are a Terrorist.
Do you think that Congresses insider trading is Treason against America? Then You are a Terrorist.
Do you think that Senates insider trading is Treason against America? Then You are a Terrorist.
Do you think that the United States Military should NEVER! Stand against Americans? Then you are a Terrorist.
Do you disagree with anything the Government of the United States does? Then you are a Terrorist.
Do you talk badly about the Government of the United States? Then you are a Terrorist.
So to any and ALL! of you Prepper's! ALL! of YOU(s) are Terrorists!
So to all of you God Loving, Patriotic and Constitutional Conversationalists.. I say FUCK YOU! I am calling Home Land Security RIGHT NOW! and turning ALL of You in! for the Reward Monies!
It annoys me when somebody makes a make a comment like "I don't think the U.S. will go into recession". Especially since we have been in recession since 2000.
Oh, Poppycock! This guy is too grounded in reality. Print and believe money is free, credit is unlimited and cans can always be kicked into someone else's lifetime. Sit back, don't worry, be happy!
I was right with you there til you broke out the nail polish..... Terrorist deviant
The banksters run the risk of bringing down governments. Greece, Italy, Spain who is next my guess France.
http://en.memory-alpha.org/wiki/Jumja_stick
I this situation could get resolved one way or the other. I got out of the market in June of this year and booked a nice profit but I am getting frustrated sitting around and eating through my principle. Now I hear Geithner is heading to Europe so we can have another six months of rumors and can kicking.
It used to be you could do your homework, get a couple of good dividend paying stocks and do ok. Now fundamentals and technicals don't matter, everything is powered by rumors that those in the club get cut in on and could wipe me out with a couple of bad moves.