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Bob Janjuah: "Germany Will Walk, And The S&P Will Undershoot To 700 In 2012"
Bob's (latest) World is here.
They told me it was fixed
From Bob Janjuah of RBSNomura
1 – My secular views remain unchanged. I see no (fundamental) developments or market (price action) developments that warrant a change of view. My very negative view of the latest (late October) round of eurozone "shock and awe? appears to have been quite accurate. All those European policymakers and sell-side commentators who told us on 27-28 October to great fanfare that the solution was now finally in place and that it was now "all fixed?, seem to have gone extremely quiet. The October deal was, as I said in my previous note, a confidence trick that has failed. And as a result it has made things a lot worse. At some point I hope that enough lessons will have been learnt, and we can finally move into the long endgame – hard (non-voluntary) default in the eurozone. Q1 2012 and the €80bn payment to Greece should be the focal point.
2 – My short-term view is also proving correct. Since the 27-28 October meeting, it has been a bad month for risk, especially in the case of peripheral eurozone debt, French debt, credit spreads, and the euro itself. Also as forecast, the dollar has done well, as have core government bond yields (bunds, USTs and Gilts). I expand further on my short-term view in point 2 below, as there are some very short-term risks to the views I set out in my last note regarding the very back end of 2011.
There are two points I want to focus on a little:
1 – Eurozone solutions: With the late October "deal? now in tatters, and with subsequent developments in Italy, in Greece, and in the market pricing of French risk, the future for the eurozone now seems to be all about the ECB and outright monetisation. It seems amazing that the same folks who insisted that Greece would not default, that the eurozone was solvent and was just going through a CDS-trader-driven liquidity squeeze, that kicking the can down the road was a viable plan, and who trumpeted the late-October deal, now think ECB monetisation is the solution. I would urge extreme caution, again. In my view, the eurozone can either go down the path of full political and fiscal integration, which clearly means a smaller neue-eurozone and default by the nations that don?t fit in with this hard-money Germanic ideal or it can take the soft-money Latin/UK/US-style soft-money route, where the ECB agrees to unlimited monetisation. It is clearly a case of "either, or?, but not both. These are two divergent policy paths.
Germany appears to be adamant that full political and fiscal integration over the next decade (nothing substantive will happen over the short term, in my view) is the only option, and ECB monetisation is no longer possible. I really think it is that clear and simple. And if I am wrong, and the ECB does a U-turn and agrees to unlimited monetisation, I will simply wait for the inevitable knee-jerk rally to fade before reloading my short risk positions. Even if Germany and the ECB somehow agree to unlimited monetisation I believe it will do nothing to fix the insolvency and lack of growth in the eurozone. It will just result in a major destruction of the ECB's balance sheet which will force an ECB recap. At that point, I think Germany and its northern partners would walk away. Markets always want short, sharp, simple solutions. This is why the begging bowl is out for ECB unlimited monetisation. But, as in the immortal words of Messrs Jagger and Richards, "you can?t always get want you want?.
I firmly believe that any conditional or finite monetisation would actually be the worst idea (most of the downside, very little of the upside, of infinite monetisation), but probably the most likely "compromise? if Germany were ever to "give? on this issue.
2 – Macro Divergence: While (to date) my risk-off call after the late-October deal has been the correct strategy, there are clearly growing divergences between credit/bond markets and equity markets, and also between optimism on the US and pessimism on the eurozone. On a secular basis I am convinced of two things. First, credit and bond markets are far better lead indicators than equity markets. Second, Europe will experience a hard default, worsening global growth and global financial conditions. In this context it is important to note that the global economy is now more closely coupled than at any point in the past three years. So I will happily position against optimism on the US economy, especially as what Kevin and I think we have seen over the past two to three months is the overdue and entirely forecast post-Japan tragedy cyclical bounce in the growth data. This bounce has now peaked, in our view, and moderation has resumed or is about to. And now the US?s own fiscal/debt problem is about to take centre stage again.
Having said all that, on a shorter timeframe a case can be made for a largely technical bounce higher in risk assets – based on price action rather than any genuinely positive fundamental developments. As such, I want to further refine my short-term view and, in particular, tighten up on my stop loss triggers. Using the S&P 500 as a proxy guide, I am looking for the S&P either to break and close (for 3 to 4 consecutive days) above 1285, or to break and close below 1230. I think the period a week either side of Thanksgiving will give us clarity on this. A break above 1285 – while doing nothing to alter my secular bearish view – would suggest 1320/1350 by year-end is possible. A break below 1230 would suggest 1150/1075 is likely before year-end. I still put an 80% probability on the break to the downside and 1100s S&P/perhaps low 1000s before year-end. In other words, the short term view detailed in my last note – which also calls for 10 year UST yields at 1.75%, Gilts sub-2%, Bunds at 1.5%, the iTraxx Crossover index up at 900, and the USD DXY Index above 80 - remains my core view. But it would be foolish of me not to tighten my stops and not to highlight the risk to my short-term outlook.
And to reiterate, as far as I am concerned, nothing has changed my very bearish secular view on global risk for 2012, which targets the S&P 500 in the 800/900 area, with risk of an undershoot to the 700s.
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I tend to agree. ECB monetization has a good chance of leading to hyper-inflation because the PIIGS will never reign in their spending if the ECB steps in to "fix it" every time. This creates a loop of ever-increasing monetization and resulting inflation.
The PIIGS will erupt in social unrest and revolution. No way these austerity measures will be enforced for long. That will be the trigger for the collapse of the Eurozone and the EU.
What ever helps solidify a NWO, will be the course of action!
WHAT HAPPENED TO HIS FAMOUS PREDICTION BACK IN EARLY 2010???
WHAT IF YOU GUYS FOLLOW ME INSTEAD OF HIM AND BTFD???
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/deep-thoughts-bob-janjuah-january-2010
That's some mighty expensive wallpaper...
It's the smartest move when you think about it.
Germany is liable joint and severally with everyone else for the ECB debt yet theirs is the only strong economy in Europe. If they walk the euro will crash and the DM will soar briefly killing their exports, but presenting a wonderful opportunity for Germany to repay its now no longer joint a several liabilities in skyrocketing dms.
Germany walks in 2012, I'm certain of it and Europe collapses into ruinous inflation as Germany stands tall.
If they can just get Greece and everyone else to hand over their sovereinty before that then they will have achieved without firing a single shot what Hitler failed to do in 5 years of warfare...
nice one Merkel. National hero.
and then of course, they rejoin later and repeat, all over again.
Good job we've got smart political leaders isn't it?
I hold you to this! Germany walking? You've gotta be kidding me! Do you know anything about a German's psyche? I lived and worked there for some time. As long as the rest of Europe tries hard enough to reign in spending they will never walk. Read my lips: NEVVA! So, I suggest you go there and talk to some CFO's and CEO's and find out about why they love the Euro.
Let's remember this comment shall we, and revisit it again next year...
Every day is a stunning surprise for Germany whenever Sarkozy opens his mouth. Not a day goes by without one rumour or another being circulated that is immediately refuted by Germany. I lived and worked in Germany once too, and I fail to see any way that Germany would prefer to live in debt run up by lying PIIGS forever than leave, clear it with stronger DM's and then rejoin with no debt.
That's what the euro will become, join on Wednesday, leave on Friday and rejoin again next Monday when your debts are cleared or if you've devalued your currency and wish to protect yourself against hyperinflation by hiding behind the euro.
I can't see any other way...
I agree entirely with you, but I project a different outcome: Its the PIIGS that will leave and as I harped before: Merkel said a few months ago 2013 will be the year to ponder such moves in earnest. They're buying time and she will have her way unless Sarkozy comes up with a serious marriage proposal... ;-)
Exactly. 2012? - Ha! The US is slowly getting it and Europe is pulling her act together, finally. I am not betting AGAINST Merkozy, that much I've learned!
Does somebody have a count of how many times this Bob Guy has been wrong...? I can't keep track anymore!
The US is slowly getting it and Europe is pulling her act together
I don't see where the US is getting anything nor Europe getting its act together.
All I've seen since '08 is banks lending more money to insolvent governments to prevent bond collapse, and when bonds do collapse central banks buy them all up, effectively bailing out the banks.
That's it. That's the whole picture since '08, both here in America and in Europe.
I see no change in that picture. Euro banks are begging ECB to start buying up all their collapsing Euro-nation bonds, and it's continuing right along here in America too, even though we haven't heard anything about QE3. It doesn't matter. US government must keep borrowing, Fed must keep printing and buying up their crap treasureis one way or another.
Does somebody have a count of how many times this Bob Guy has been wrong...? I can't keep track anymore!
It doesn't matter if this particular guy has been right or wrong. He sees what many other people see, the obvious need for central banks to keep printing and buying sovereign debt to keep the sovereign bond market from imploding and wiping out all the TBTF banks.
And we now know CDS aren't any help. When a 50% principal writedown doesn't trigger CDS, the whole CDS thing is a joke.
And yes I believe Germany will eventually say "enough" and leave the EU.
Thank you. I very much honour your view but as I learned from Merkel, she will not allow this to happen and polls in Germany suggest that she has a majority holding her up. People believe she's doing a good job in these turbulent times defending their savings against greedy EU neighbours. The US getting it? Some indicators show that growth is accelerating, others show a protracted weakness. Its still on the edge of the proverbial knife, but there are some signs....
US economy cannot recover (much less grow) when the federal government, state governments, and local governments are sucking up all available credit.
Keeping government operating is all that matters now. The economy doesn't matter anymore.
the PIIGS will have to leave the Euro...the truth is that they NEVER REALLY QUALIFIED in the first place!
The currency strength brought to the region by Germany was used like an expense account by the greasy olive oil nations.
The PIIGS were the charter originators except for Ireland.
Huh?
The founding members of the Community were Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and West Germany.
Trav777.........You are so right! The PIIGS should rot in hell!
Those primitive olive oil types are great for a wild romp with tourists, but never trust them to balance a checkbook.
I would be perfectly happy if they would account for my finances in this manner.
I'd be (a lot) fuckin rich(er than I am now)!
In fact I'd probably be a small nation state, we all would...
It's oil that is short term inflationary and medium term deflationary as it takes off to the stratosphere.
Deflationary for the Oil economy that is. Which is most economy.
Economy. Wow, just realized that "Thrift" is em-bedded in the meaning of Economy.
Economiser. Econo-miser.
Hmmmm...
ORI
My Creative Journey
ori
if you get a chance to see this post, take a look at the front of the drudgereport and look at that guy sitting in the middle of the road during the occuply los angeles protest............notice his hands. he is very obviously making the sign of the triangle with his hands.........hmmmm.........the signal means.........we have it all under control. don't worry about it...........
It's gone now, but I'm sure it's inserted on purpse too.
Now they have a triangle shot of th eSyrian protestors. Very telling, water cannons and all.
ORI
Have they revealed what the NWO salute will look like yet? or will there be a secret handshake instead?
No, you will simply bend over at the waist...
BYO lube or will that not be allowed? these are things potential investors need to know.
A conscientious citizen of the New World shall be ready at all times.
Such bs. The continent is full of gray hairs now, who is going to revolt?
Never underestimate the fighting spirit of the armed, walking-impaired, octogenarian Q-Tip.
"Into the breach ! Let's have at 'em boys !"
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TmED4DTHvIY/TDI9x52zoJI/AAAAAAAAO_c/0DdCPOrGZO...
agree with you agent default. ...but if the purchasers of unsecured sovereign debt really accepted the notion of 'unsecured" then interest rates would dramatically escalate. Creditors would be punished for irresponsible lending via. default and austerity measures would be naturally enforced via. the total absence of creditors.
The implied backstop on sovereign debt promotes unlimited borrowing and creates the world’s largest ponzi moral hazard wasteland. On top of all that, if we didn't allow banks (private and central) to invent debt...there would be no credit market for debt addicts anyway.
A pure free market in debt where SAVERS (not bank debt inventors) determined credit availability would have eliminated these bubbles and unlimited debt debacles. But there’s too much money to be made in counterfeiting so here were are waiting for this bridge to collapse.
I tend to agree. The situation is more than ridiculous in Europe. The morons are best described here: http://bit.ly/tk1vLa
That is just a dreary forecast. Me Likes!
Maybe this will be the last time or the market may have it's 19th nervous breakdown.
Bullish, definately...
The Kyle Bass and now Bob Janjuah viewpoint is becoming mainstream, why? Well, for those that look at history of sovereign defaults(like Germany) there are two ways to default: Accept insolvency then restructure or set fire to your currency. Choose wisely.
I'm not sure if I can agree with Janujah...Germany's exit would mean apocalypse for its banks and the EUR debt zone because then all the PIIGS could repay in dogshit.
'Germany's exit would mean apocalypse for its banks and the EUR debt zone because then all the PIIGS could repay in dogshit.'
"Debts that can't be repaid won't" -Michael Hudson.
You have to take a loss sometime. Germany is not going the way of printing in tandem.
germany's debt would be wiped out by the DM
Or both
concisely stated. +1
Accept insolvency then restructure or set fire to your currency.
Maybe that's what's stoked oil prices lately. (I heard somebody say burn, baby, burn...)
But that's the whole point, if they write off the debt in an insolvency they don't need to devalue the currency.
Problem is they won't, they are screwing everyone for more taxes to make the payments...
How are the bond yields today?
For shit...
Libor is locked down as well.
If they don't print today then the HFT's and ALGO will switch the tack on their sails to bear mode.
Ever notice that if we walk past three down days that the HFT/Algo segment switches gears from bull to bear then some ridiculous feedback loop happens.
If the bear kicks in at 10:30 we'll see the market fall of the truck again. Even the HFT's are starting to get wise to the nonsense pushed out politically in the US, Europe and Japan.
I'm really not fucking one bit concerned about any market index price next year.
I'm kind of more concerned about making it through 2012 alive.
If they S&P gets below 800 next year, you'll have more to worry about than an equity index price.
A move below 800 implies more bailouts. Which means... OWS starts looking like Greek style riots.
No, it means the shooting will begin because real unemployment will be so high. Much worse than the Greek riots. But I think this too is the desired outcome by TPTB.
Kent State MK II will be shit-storm of massive proportions. It will then take a BIG event to distract the American public from a bunch of dead 20somethings.
I love responding to a post and then they change the comment making my post look totally fucked....and that is kind of like investing in today's market.
Next year?
no no no no...sooner than that.
It has been a thing of absolute amazement to me how long TPTB have been able to keep the ball in the air at all. Everything Janjuah says has been clearly correct for 4 years, yet people still buy into naked extend-and-pretend. Of course, a thing which can't continue won't, and things continue until they don't, but this nonsense has gone on for so long, I have a hard time seeing S&P 500 in the low 1000's in 6 weeks. The tape has so much paint on it that it might be all paint; there may be no actual tape under there; so maybe this will be the time they can't keep it up.
when either germany walks away from the eu or the piigs walk off the eu plank, you can kiss gold goodbye. there will be debt destruction that no human has every laid eyes upon.............
You know what gets me? Now its all 'off the table' until 2012 and we just apparently coast along on unicorn farts until then? But 3 weeks ago, the end of the line was the EU summit where 'the plan' that was formed was to be a miracle cure-all, averting bank implosions and Eurozone disaster. Well that plan was laughed at immediately, and suddenly none of that is relevant, till 2012.
You know what I think, theyre stuck and none of them have any idea what to do next at all now.
SheepDog, they're all shitting their pants and blaming each other for the stink.
Who is "they" and who are their puppet-masters?
"They" are Sarkozy, Merkel, Van Rumpoy and the rest of the posse, trying to figure out which lever to pull next.
yep sheepdog, keep the promises and the confusion and the "progress" going as long as possible.........
If u cant dazzle them with brillance then baffle them with bullshit.
Yep. It's all Pavlovian response now. Nothing is real anymore and it doesn't have to be until it all implodes. This is how it now "works" and nobody knows how long it can go on.
The assumption is the gold price is solely a function of the volume of debt money outstanding.
Although I'm inclined to agree, there seems to be a secular shift in central banker habits with regards to viewing gold as a reserve asset.
We are likely in a shift in the currency regime, should gold regain its place as the reserve of choice, price may be many multiples of what we have today.
You do spout some shit you do.
Why, in a default would anyone walk away from the only thing that can't be defaulted?
You're a fucking looney.
I think the PIIGS should be slaughtered.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYSWMoDwpME
Lets make the S&P downside estimate 666 - what the hell. Sign of the times.
I think within a year the S&P takes out 666 on the way down.
the bonds yields mean nothing now...who is buying them...the central banks...not a market....its faked.....
Also I think the average Joe that works for the goverernments will when he hears of the ECB cash coming in will raise salaries..benies..and spend spend spend...the get it while you can mentality....it will be rife with payoffs and illegal investments...thefts...etc...
Yes. Why not hand out monopoly money if it actually buys you favor or votes? That's really what this is, no?
...there are, it's called fiat currency. Only difference between monopoly money and fiat is situational faith in the currency.
One other entity is buying the bonds...the MFGs of the world. The whole system is corrupt. What's a missing $600MM among friends? Has Corzine done the perp walk? No, he's hands-off Gluttonous Sack material.
Precious Farmland, Precious Weapons, Precious Food, Precious Metals
The Germans will pull the plug some weekend
soon out of frustration. Who wouldn't in
their situation? Anyone really think their
going to spend an entire generation giving
handouts to the PIIGs? If so, I suggest
you take up herding cats.
I think they planned for the 1 world bank and all this crap but theyre seeing the people rejecting it all, austerity looked good on paper, but not on the streets! These people are backed into the corner and dont know what the hell to do now.
These people are backed into the corner and dont know what the hell to do now.
Kinda has a 1938 ring to it, no?
When Merkel finally pulls the plug, she will be able to be Queen of Germany for life if she wants the job. The Germans will carry her through the streets on their shoulders.
Germans will carry her through the streets on their shoulders.
They'llhafta institute a draft for that "job".
Germany is a big export economy, they will weigh the risk of continued bailouts and monetization of debt vs. the advantage they receive with a weaker Euro, which is substantial. When the cost of printing exceeds their pain threshold they will push for a gold backed currency. Good thing they held onto their 3400 tonnes of gold, isn't it?
I firmly believe that any conditional or finite monetisation would actually be the worst idea
"Finite monetisation" does not compute. It's like a roller coaster with no rails past the bottom of the first drop...
Clown show squared!!!!
Just hand the continent over to the Muslims already and be done with it.
Yeah let the Muslims reduce Europe to a nuclear wasteland sandbox. All for Allah and Allah for none!
(I once knew someone sick like that from B-tribe sandbox-F that'd much rather destroy everyone and everything including themselves rather than allow anyone or anything to thrive. On 2nd thought, don't give anything to anyone so perverted; let's allow Europe to purge before we hand anything over.....it's some kind of preferable solution to I prefer not to... [Mental illness is a bottomless pit.])
Who said anything about destruction, nuclear or otherwise?
I did, son.
seeing far ahead. I like that. the demographic time bomb cannot be defused. well played sir.
You forget that ethnic cleansing has been a recurrent policy option around the world.
Europeans may be pussies today, but just wait until their backs are against the wall.
I wouldnt bet on the ragheads to take over. Thousands of Vlads will spring up. They will lead Europe to a proper cleansing and rebirth, but I wont live to see it.
I have 2,500 recently-acquired Deutsche Marks in my desk drawer here that say he's right.
Please explain fully.
I fucking hope so! My calcs for SP are 850......if it hits 700 I'm make cream on the cream! Come on baby let's get this reality check in check.
Looking at the DJIA, I think w will see an intermediate low of 7500 +/- 1000 some time in June/July 2012. I guess that corresponds to Bob's low on the S&P. Unless this cycle model changes substantially, the final low of DJIA 4500 +/- 2000 happens Summer/Fall of 2014. Cycle models
S&P Jan. 2013 puts with an 800 strike price are still cheap!
...I think the equity markets will be challenged post 2011 as well.....but quoting the rolling stones tends to push you down the credibility scale IMO
Come on, the MTV generation has grown up and secured real jobs. But they can't not write what's in their head.
true....in this market environment it is probably easier than digging for details.....if I were to write only what was in my head I would probably be committed.....and besides, I do not know how to spell the sounds a jack-in-the-box makes
http://heavenbounf.blogspot.com/2011/11/going-galt-hedge-broker-shuts-down-firm.html Ann Barnhardt describes herself as a an “an old-school commercial hedge broker specializing in CATTLE and GRAIN.” And she just shut down her business by delivering a passionate and chilling open letter posted on her website.
“I could no longer tell my clients that their monies and positions were safe in the futures and options markets – because they are not,” she writes. And then she unloads:
She may be right, but I will give ten to one odds that somebody has diagnosed her with bipolar disorder or given her meds that are used to treat the condition.
Yes, that corresponds with my prediction chart of DJIA hitting 7000 next year July, than jumping up a bit in November as Treasury defaults on debt to FED-but it will give a short term boost due to short term inflation period (after deflation q1-q3 2012):
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...
The real downturn will begin in the end of December 2011.
The Eurozone has some major flaws.
http://thechinonomist.blogspot.com/2011/11/new-baby-is-being-born-call-d...
Countries will not resolve their spend and debt issues until the band market forces them to, including and especially the US. US treasury rates don't reflect the true risk of holding the debt. Just a matter of time before the market says enough to Bernanke and the fed's games.
but but but kyle bass has stated that germany is in no shape to help anyone.........so who will step up to "help" europe..........why is it (as usual) i am getting this feeling..............
Can someone please help me understand this - The Italian yields tumble when ECB buys, but where is the ECB getting money to buy? They can't print so isn't it the money parked by regions banks, the money the banks recovered by selling the assets, some potentially Italian debt assets that led to yield surge isn't it? So how is this all good for Euro?
What really pisses me off about Yanks is their complete and utter IGNORANCE about the history of this socialist monster experiment called the E. U. So many of you mix it up with the E. U. R. O. The latter is just a currency - another artificial, made-up, worthless fiat currency which a number of SOVEREIGN NATIONS decided to adopt in 1999. Not all the NATIONS of the E.U. decided on joining the E. U. R. O. such as Britain, Denmark and Sweden. Some were even wiser and stayed away from the socialist monster experiment called the E. U. - Norway and of course perenial 'bag-holder' - Switzerland.
Now, ever since socialist monster experiment called the E. U. attemtped to introduce more 'integration' (can you say capture) by means of a CONSTITUTION in 2005, they immediately ran into resistance as a number of countries required a legal mandate from their voters by way of national referenda: France and the Netherlands rejected the Constitution - as did Ireland after the socialist monster experiment called the E. U. tried the back door (i.e. tried to screw the Irish up the arse) when they craftily changed the name of the constitution to the LISBON TREATY. The Irish voted no to that, too, but were forced to voted again(!!!!!) at which time (the 2nd ballot) there was massive voting fraud in order to ensure a 'correct' vote.
Now all this, not just the so-called Austerity Measures (can you say fiscal and financial rape plus runaway inflation?), has led the ordinary folk of many socialist monster experiment called the E. U. countries to take to the streets. The cat is out of the bag. Like him or loathe him, that was what Nigel Fararge is saying and has being saying for years. Can you say Saint John the Baptist? Look what happened to him!!! Read Oscar Wilde's play - it's the most entertaining version or go to see Richard Strauss' opera, Salome.
Good grief, ladies and gentlement, you are supposed to be the intellectual 'cream of the crop'. Please let us see more evidence of this and less black propaganda which is just that - black propaganda.
U. D.
+1MM
UD, US schools don't teach history any more, unless it's related to injustices done to some identity group. We do, however, teach anti-bullying, safe sex, gay sensitivity, and other skills critical to today's job market. Yet OWS protestors are shocked that they're unemployed (and unemployable).
http://heavenbounf.blogspot.com/2011/11/classy-ron-paul-corrects-reporter-who.html
Ron Paul always Classy watch him correct a CBS camera man bulldozing a female reporter..That guy should be our next Pres..love his comments on the banking system etc..
I agree with Bob that there is downside risk ahead as Europe continues to stumble about, but if QE3 rolls out as big as I think it will (following a sufficient shock) then that downside turns into a BTFD situation. Wait for a few more shocking bankruptcies out of Europe and the deleverage it will trigger, leading to a selloff in precious metals, then back up the damn truck.
QE3 is going to have to exceed QE1 + QE2. Central banks will have to absorb mountains of eurotrash debt and derivatives based on it, in return absolving financial institutions of all sins, making them highly liquid (cash in exchange for "assets"), and freed from risk / insolvency. Consequences, centralized to central banks will then be passed on to taxpayers over decades via inflation, austerity or both.
Meanwhile, financial institutions will take all their newfound liquidity and do exactly what they did last time: buy stocks (which is why the S&P tracked the Fed's balance sheet expansion). Over time, of course, these fucking morons will manage to get themselves illiquid again and backed into a corner, chasing higher yields. Rinse and repeat.
today is just another example of what a bankster run world it is we live in. stocks up at the open on nothing but the ECB buying junk bonds nobody else in their right mind wants and of course talk of the IMF jumping in.
American paper coming to a Eurocrises near you?
It's all banks, banks, banks now as the EU is going through serious economic contraction, not that the MSM is going to report on that, you have to dig to find the manufacturing reports and they are ugly. now with China being tapped out the CBs have become the lenders of first, last and only resort.
the result is Greece and Italy have become the first two nations to be outright owned and run by the banking elite, it's not even a shadowy behind the scenes sort of control anymore.
and they won't be the last, many other nations will suffer the same fate, outright bank ownership, foreclosed nations who's infrastructure, sovereignty and future will be sold to Globalist NWO interests for pennies on the dollar. Sad really.
to quote JRR Tolkien-
where is the horse and the rider?
where is the horn that was blowing?
they have passed, like rain upon the mountian
like wind across the meadow
the days have gone down in the west
into shadow
how did it come to this?
Here's an example of what I mean - not 2 minutes after I posted. THE EU IS FALLING APART, DUMMMY. SOON IT WILL BE EVERY NATION (REMEMBER THOSE) FOR ITSELF.
For goodness sake, why don't you peple grow up and FIND THINGS OUT FOR YOURSELVES. YOU ARE BEING FED AND ARE REGURGITATING BULLSHIT!!!
I'll never be your beast of burden. I've walked for miles - my feet are hurting...
Yeah, right, S&P 500 in the 800/900 area.
The ultra-bears foretelling S&P 500 are the same as ultra-bulls from the most-despised institutions. Listen to both and you'd be broke before 2012. It will crash, no, no, it will skyrocket, no, no, it will collapse.
Please, the "1,500 S&P in 2012" and "800 S&P in 2012" crowds, fuck off and find something useful to do - like flipping burgers. You are incompetent charlatans who cause nothing but the wealth destruction among the people who are stupid enough to believe you.
ECB recapitalisation??? WTF??? That's not how central banks work ...