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Bob Janjuah: "It's Only Just Begun" - Sees S&P 500 "Fair Value" At 800-900

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Bob Janjuah's brief infatuation with groundless optimism is gone. Bob the real Bear is back.

It's Only Just Begun

To kick-off, please be careful about taking too seriously views which claim that the markets, over the last few weeks and months, are over-reacting, or views that claim that markets are behaving in a surprising manner. Whilst precise timing has surprised even me a little – see below – anyone who has followed my work or Kevin?s work over the last few months and more broadly since late 2006/early 2007 will know two things. First, rather than an over-reaction we both feel that markets are, finally, beginning to price in the kind of „new normal? which we have talked about for years. The one where weak trend growth and fast-deteriorating policy credibility and poor policy effectiveness are the norm. This process has only just begun. It will not be a straight line down, but the secular (bearish) trend for risk assets is, to me, now clear and, with hindsight, this bear leg began in Q2 2011. Second, the drivers of this bearish secular trend are precisely those which we have been writing about at length over the last 10 months, so one should not see any of this as a surprise. Turning now to a number of more detailed thoughts:

1. I was wrong on the very short-term tactical call. I got greedy. I was looking for one last mini bull-run up in risk as the perfect set-up ahead of the resumption of the secular bear. I felt that sentiment and positioning were pointing to one more move higher. Also, S&P moved its US sovereign rating at least a quarter before I had expected. Nonetheless, I am mighty glad I refined and highlighted my S&P 1280 bear alert level/stop loss in my last note in July. Phew!

2. To reiterate, I am bearish on a secular basis, and in the big picture we have now commenced the third leg. Leg 1 was the nasty bear from the Q3 07 highs to the Q1 09 lows. Leg 2 was the policy-funded rally from Q1 09 to Q2 11. This Leg 3 will, I think, last deep into 2012, and likely beyond. We are in a balance sheet recession which will take at least 2 to 3 more years to clean up. The cost of capital will keep rising. The outcome is weak trend growth – I feel 1% pa on a 2 to 3 year basis in the balance sheet impaired West is the central case. Soft patches will be the norm. Cushions against economic shocks will be thin/non-existent. Aggregate real Earnings and Incomes will stagnate/fall. Defaults (amongst weak balance sheet corporates, consumers, AND sovereigns) will rise and P/Es will fall. In this world, and using the S&P 500 purely as a risk proxy, I see ‘fair value’ for the S&P down in the 800/900 area. I think we will see these levels trade in the next 12/15 months. And we may even „undershoot? to levels last seen at the lows of Q1 09. For this year I still expect – as I have said all year – that between now and end 2011 the S&P will trade, as a low print, in the low-1000s.

3. In my view the market remains too optimistic and full of hope. In particular the sell-side remains too hopeful on trend growth. (I think Q2 11 US GDP will be revised down heavily, and H2 11 and 2012 expectations are, I think, way too high.) Further, the sell-side remains way too addicted to policy and policy makers. Over the next year I feel that all the things we have talked about all year – weak trend growth in the West, growth risks in EM as the focus remains on combating inflation and excessive credit creation, euro zone restructuring, and fast diminishing policy maker credibility, policy ineffectiveness and policy options - will get priced into markets and asset prices. These last few weeks and months are the beginning of this process.

As I write all eyes - for now - seem to be focussed on Bernanke and Jackson Hole. Why? I don’t know. After all, QE2 was – in the eyes of, many - a dramatic failure. Bernanke will likely disappoint the more bullish expectations with his Jackson Hole speech, but as I have said all year QE3 is coming in late 2011/early 2012, once S&P trades at 1000 and once the unemployment rate hits 10%. However, if QE3 comes as a de facto redux of QE2, then this will I feel be a major policy error. It may „help? markets for few short weeks, but in reality such QE3 will force EM to slow down even harder (China hard landing anyone?) as such a form of QE3 will simply reignite food and energy price inflation for EM. And for the West such QE3 will simply act as an even bigger de facto tax on the Western consumer. All at a time when „official? fiscal policy is already being tightened in the West. I think that any QE3 which is a de facto redux of QE2 will be a critical step towards a collapse in policymaker credibility amongst the markets and amongst the real economy.

4. The secular bear market will not be a straight line down in my opinion. Short sharp counter trend rallies will occur, but the secular trend will be clear. Such rallies will sometimes be driven by the occasional „strong? patch in global growth. But in particular look out for Fed QE3 (as mentioned above), and QE2 in the UK (I think the UK has a more credible case for more QE than the Fed). Fed QE3 (see above) late in 2011/early 2012 will likely drive the sharpest such counter trend rally. And markets will likely seriously start pricing it in beforehand, likely once S&P hits low-1000s and once (even) the (official) unemployment rate hits 10%. Such a QE3 may see the S&P move from the low-1000s (my long stated low target for the S&P for 2011, which I expect to see in the next 2 months) back up to say 1200.

QE1 had a useful shelf life of about 12 months and about 600 S&P points. For QE2 this useful shelf life was six months and worth about 300 S&P points, and the period of ‘usefulness’ expired well before QE2 ‘officially’ ended. So, for any QE3 which is merely a de facto extension of QE2, I’d expect it to have the same half-life and thus a useful shelf life of, at best, three months and be worth no more than 150 S&P points. Very tradable, but a mere blip in the bigger picture. Such QE3 will not work to achieve sustainable (even just) ‘OK’ growth, and it will just be another example of the fact that policymakers continue to misdiagnose and thus mistreat our problems. Such QE3 will simply be another example of the gross misallocation of capital by Western policymakers. This ugly policy error is getting the expected response from the real economy and the private sector - they are „hunkering down? and getting prepared for bad times ahead. Time, and ultimately the rejection of the print/pump/borrow/spend policy framework, still deeply embedded in the West, will be the cures and will drive, in time, a sustainable recovery led by the private, and not public, sector.

In the euro zone, the options are clear I think. It’s either full, explicit fiscal union where Germany and the inner core pay up. Or we end up with a ‘neue-euro zone’ in which certainly three, and perhaps more, of the existing members of the current club – those with the weakest balance sheets – are „ejected? from the euro zone (not from the Euro) and put under some form of multi-year „conservatorship? for 3/5 years, during which time these economies undergo meaningful debt and economic restructuring, with conditional assistance from Brussels and the ECB. This means genuine default and real bondholder losses. I cannot see any other solution.

Full fiscal union is many years away. So genuine and meaningful debt and real economy restructuring seem to me the only choice realistically. The longer we wait, the lower the recovery and the bigger the risk that three goes to five or maybe even six existing members. The sooner the euro zone gets “fixed” real the sooner we can move on. If we can get to this point quickly, then I am pretty certain that markets will be pleased to see a sustainable resolution and this, as well as US QE3 or UK QE2, will be an outcome which can also drive a short sharp counter trend.

5. So, what should investors do? On a two to three year timeframe, the old rule applies. Focus on and favour strong balance sheet entities, whether its government debt, consumer debt or corporate equities. Strong balance sheet, large cap global blue chip non-financial equities and debt will I think offer the best relative value and best risk reward. On a one-year timeframe I would be extremely risk-averse and outright bearish. And in the very short term, I look for a low-1000s S&P print this year, but thereafter I would also be expecting, as discussed above, to see one last policy-fed hurrah which could see, as a proxy, the S&P up at 1200 by end 2011/Q1 2012. Gold should continue to ramp up, largely irrespective of what happens to commodities in general, as on a two- to three-year timeframe we are – I am sure – going to move away from fiat money and the failed economic thinking of the last 30 years. For now I do not have any strong FX call – I think 2013 could well be the year in which we get the major global currency/money paradigm shift which will be a core part of the longer term solution to our global growth and Western debt ills, but this is a topic for discussion later. As for core rates – the US, the UK and the inner core euro zone - on a 12 month basis I can see 10yr government yields in the US UK and Germany down at 1.5%, maybe lower. If my nearer-term 2011 S&P target is going to prove correct (low-1000s target) then expect such 10 year yields to break below 2% and perhaps even 1.75%. On a QE-fed counter trend risk rally, core governments will of course sell off, maybe to mid-2s in yield terms. On a 12 month horizon I suspect this will be a great entry point.

 

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Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:01 | 1590016 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Sell French banks

Sell Italian banks

Sell UK banks

Sell Spanish banks

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:03 | 1590023 Stumpy
Stumpy's picture

Don't you forget Canadian banks? Word on the street is that they're not as good as canucks might think.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:04 | 1590031 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

s&p 800-900

wtf is bob ganja smoking?

s&p 400-500 more like. 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:33 | 1590419 HCSKnight
HCSKnight's picture

Priced in the average of 1990 to 95 USDs, the S&P is right now ~935...

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:33 | 1590184 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Wait until Canadian RE starts to hit reality.....that's when their Bubble meets the Pin.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:03 | 1590025 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Sell banks.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 17:27 | 1592280 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Pensioners grab ankles.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:03 | 1590027 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

you must be talking to the FED and US Banks? I think their the only ones holding that steaming pile of shit

 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:09 | 1590336 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Fair? More like bair market again.

Better yet, a rabbit market. Going straight down the jackson hole.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 14:33 | 1591414 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

"On a two to three year  timeline, t he old rules apply, focus on strong balance sheets---" What a complete load of useless crap. This person has no more idea how to survive in a major market than my little sister. Some of the worst newsletter quality shit I'ive ever seen. Meaningless mouth noises.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 16:48 | 1592127 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"focus on strong balance sheets"

Kind of like "reach for a strong stanchion".. on the Titanic.

 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:02 | 1590020 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

 I still think we go through the 2009 S&P low like butter but then again priced in gold we are essentially already there.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:15 | 1590075 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, really are already there, just this free ZIRP trillions sloshing around that has PUMPED it all up, now theyre talking about 'cleaning up our balance sheets' since theyve been doing the exact opposite for last 3 years propping it all up blowing a bubble on their balance sheets?

This is all just retarded.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:25 | 1590398 HCSKnight
HCSKnight's picture

Priced in the average of 90-95 USDs, the S&P is ~935...

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:05 | 1590034 Popo
Popo's picture

I'm trying to re-like Janjuah.   But after watching him trans-mutate into a slimy British banker dick and go bullish -- it's going to take more than a repeat of what *everyone* is now saying.

Bob -- once you were prescient.  Now you've got your hat in your hand, and you're late to the party.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:18 | 1590086 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Bob, usually very good, fucked up his last short-term tactical call.   Now his long-term strategic call comes too late for much reward. 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:05 | 1590036 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

too much gloom and doom out there

 

the kommunists will do everything they can to squeeze the shorts

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:17 | 1590081 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Longs about to get squeezed big time by a python, namely the 401K and pensioners, and they dont suspect a thing. No QE folks, the house of crap is about to tumble.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:18 | 1590089 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Doch QE3...

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:27 | 1590156 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Exsqueeze me? Baking powder?

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:06 | 1590044 jedimarkus
jedimarkus's picture

These price targets, high or low, are irrelevant and downright stupid.  The HAL 9000s are in charge and they sold Accenture at a penny so don't tell me there is anything called "fair value".  That is for fund managers to justify their actions to their directors and clients....  All of it is worth nothing and worth everything... all supply and demand.  valuation... what a silly arcane concept.  For the love of God, all this crap is backed by a fiat currency in the first place!  Just another PSYOP in the global system...

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:09 | 1590049 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

"We are in a balance sheet recession which will take at least 2 to 3 more years to clean up." -- Whatever you are smoking, pal, pass it around.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:18 | 1590087 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Yeah, five maybe six years total. Lost decade my ass. Suck it, Japan. USA! USA! USA!

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:10 | 1590056 alexwest
alexwest's picture

well, why is 800-900pp fair value?

i dont get it.. FED is out of bullets. .fine.. problem is NOBODY FUCKING  SEEMS TO NOTICE HUGE ELEFANT IN THE ROOM called federal deficit..

 

we are in ressesion.. so tax receipts are instead of running 0%  y/y goona be down 5-10%.. so

next years deficit is going to be 2$ trln at least..

 

HOW ARE WE GONNA DEAL W/ THAT? did mr whatever_ his name  and market itself discount perpetual 15% GDP deficits ? doubt it..

 

so peaking   random number is useless... fiscal pucture is getting worse and worse.. only plausible solution is increase taxes in short run...  did market discount that too?

 

alx

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:13 | 1590062 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

400 is optimistic fair value.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:20 | 1590099 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I consider myself optimistic and I say 350. Nah, I'm just kidding, I'm really not optimistic.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:37 | 1590155 Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

Ah-Ah-Ah SheepyDawg,

Bro,one-tenth ounce o'gold for SPX.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:10 | 1590057 buzzsaw99
Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:13 | 1590060 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh we're going to 'clean up our balance sheets' now that we've been propping them up with trillions in free 0% interest money? Load of BS!

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:14 | 1590064 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Knock knock Bob, there is a WAR coming. 2-3 years. Hah. Months maybe to Mayhem.

Wakey wakey Bob. 

Vivek

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:21 | 1590109 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I'm trying to figure out how they're going to run a war this time. How does one cull the herd but not poison the pasture?

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:29 | 1590163 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

SR, in their fantasy world, their survival will be in underground bunkers/tunnel systems and what not. Will wait out the 100 years below ground.

First off, what a god-forsaken mind-set and second, good luck wit dat, eh!

Vivek

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:35 | 1590194 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyll all be at each others throats within 2 weeks.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:39 | 1590210 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Sounds like the science fiction stories I read as a kid. Do they still have neutron bombs? What are the long term radiation effects of those? I can't see the elite living in tunnels for a hundred years. Maybe the war will be fought by a multitude of irregular armies with small arms, all against each other. Help the plebs kill themselves, assisted suicide.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:51 | 1590253 john39
john39's picture

the elites are fucked.  they just don't know it yet.  going to be fun to watch.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:24 | 1590395 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

SR, at least some of it is true. The seed vault in the Antartic, funded by Gates, Monsanto, Cargill and a bunch of "Governments, mostly northern european, the 1,000 year vault. And then there is Denver, spooky city. The whole http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheyenne_Mountain  thing.

If they can build one, why not 1,000? Lot's of drug slush money sloshing around and lots of complicit MIC contractors happy to play if paid. Big. 

Science fiction always becomes science fact, ne?

Vivek (ORI)

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:14 | 1590065 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

Ones Markets are up Doomsters
Bullshit pops up. S$P LOW-HIGH Target 12500-14000 by Year End.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:18 | 1590088 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

WOW really! BACK to the R/E insane bubble top in a few months! 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:19 | 1590093 snowball777
snowball777's picture

<--- dumbest post of the day, if not year

<--- no, he and altucher are savants, you just need to squint harder

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:23 | 1590122 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

"Idiot Savant" is pejorative. Even if you didn't say "idiot," we knew what you meant.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:26 | 1590143 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

We have September to f* around and then Markets
move much higher, Watch and learn, dumbass..
If you don't like stocks, this doesn't mean that S&P
should fall to 800, cause it's already at 800 (USD wise), inflation adjusted

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:13 | 1590352 snowball777
snowball777's picture

14000 (note the 3rd zero)?!

I like stocks just fine...I fondly remember when I used to buy them...it's this "market" I fucking hate.

Post bookmarked; see you in November, chuckles.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:28 | 1590406 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

A huge market ramp, is not impossible. Over half the wealth in the world is "pump" money.

First chase every sane person out at a loss.

Then ramp the ever living fuck out of it. Fuck billions when you could raise trillions. Inflation will go a little nuts, but they will be stick saved on the top level. THe inflation is only bad, in their minds, when they release too much phoney money into the main street markets.

When the low of march 2009 was manufactured, banks like wells fucko bought the shit out of the bottom.  It saved their ass. Buffy went crawling to goldie and became more towards an investment bank.

Could it happen? Sure, but not against doomsters.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:26 | 1590145 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

This is just beginner trolling. Really bad spelling errors are a give away. No subtlety or art here,  just keyboard banging. It will take much more than this to create real entertainment.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:47 | 1590238 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Would you not say that the Hedge is a jaded tough crowd?

A while back Calculated Risk viewship (thread comments) were a great contrarian indicator for the market. ZH has all but morphed into the same for the PMs....I used Monday to sell some close to the money weekly GLD calls for relatively massive premium....

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:22 | 1590382 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

;)

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:14 | 1590072 adr
adr's picture

Well the 100 point plus morning rally i in full effect again.  the total skitzoid market doesn't know what it wants to do. Who really bids up Amazon $12 in thus environment?

Crude is up and down at the same time. The Yen is up after being down. Bank of Amerika is almost even for the morning.

Is SODA higher? Is this a Cramer bought rally?

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:20 | 1590101 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

JH in a few days and theyre popping markets +100 daily...no QE folks, about to see a huge planned crash. 'To clean up our balance sheets' as Bob Janjua would say. 401K and pensioners, prepare to get bent over big time.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:15 | 1590076 mynhair
mynhair's picture

What happened to the leading '1' in that range?

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:20 | 1590104 snowball777
snowball777's picture

100 - 200?

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:17 | 1590082 CrockettAlmanac.com
Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:29 | 1590165 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

What if Mama Cass had shared half her sandwich with Karen Carpenter? Would they both still be alive today?

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:24 | 1590394 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

That's possible. Perhaps they should have asked Brian Jones to get out of the pool and join them as well.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:18 | 1590090 ellandroadfaithful61
ellandroadfaithful61's picture

please help. richmond fed numbers come in dreadful, playing 500 to fall, and it rises 1%. is Ronald Mcdonald in charge of the S&P.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:23 | 1590118 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Pricing in QE800.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:23 | 1590123 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre pumping into Jackson Hole for the big dump.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:26 | 1590144 magpie
magpie's picture

Can't have the Bernank speak into a crash.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:31 | 1590172 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Yep. Market rising means Fed not trapped, can do what Fed wants.. I mean thinks best.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:31 | 1590174 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh, so now we make our QE case with wildly rising markets? QE is now a 'good times' event? Well why dont they then just bake QE $5 trillion as part of the federal budget then? 

No, somethings way off here

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:35 | 1590195 magpie
magpie's picture

queue Bernank's "stimulus for market stability" ?

how will the market even react to some "unlimited" QE ?

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:37 | 1590202 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Gold up 20%, dollar down another 20%....only result of more QE at this point.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:44 | 1590225 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

But if market is falling, Fed looks trapped and ineffective. World market needs a Fed who looks smooth and collected, whatever Fed does.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:50 | 1590236 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So then next we'll have QE4 when the DOW is at about 25,000, USD is in the 50's, and a turnip costs $47? Good luck in that world, last thing anyone will be thinking about in those conditions is what the FED is doing.

I dont believe any of this present 'logic', something else is in the works.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:11 | 1590345 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

No, I don't disagree w/you. Unlike Dirty Harry, I think they are out of bullets. All they have left is show, but they want a stage for the show that will move confidence in the direction they want. I agree, something is in the works, I DK what it is, the magicians still have hats, but they've run out of rabbits. The show must go on.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:48 | 1590474 DOT
DOT's picture

Now the magician will use the ploy of the false promise (barginning tactics ).

Yes, we have this incredible new tool ( QE3) it is much better than all others to date.

 

We would be able to act immeadiately should conditions warrant.  Beg for it...

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:34 | 1590190 Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

I see no evidence of companies having intentions of "cleaning up their balance sheets."  FASB on hold.  Accounting doctors in the house.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:38 | 1590209 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I dont see any intention of this balance sheet spring cleaning. The whole point of TARP/QE's was to maintain the bubble. Unless Bob is saying the bubble will now be collapsed.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 12:03 | 1590541 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Just because you change the accounting rules doesn't solve the cash flow problem and carrying costs of the assets.  It is showing in their earnings even with all the help the FED is giving them.  Free money will not save them with the 10 year trading at 2% ... it is not enough spread.  Therefore, IMO, banks are finished, as in kaput.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:35 | 1590193 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Today we get a glimpse of the QE3 world: stocks up, gold down. All the doomers who said that QE3 would skyrocket gold and silver, will turn out to be wrong. Short gold, after all?

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:41 | 1590217 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Today we get a glimpse of the QE world'...how so? What are you talking about?

'All the 'gloomers' said QE would skyrocket gold and slver'....Uh...you checked and gold and silver charts since the start of QE's? Looks like gold is up around 400%, same or more for silver.

Do you have any other points you'd like to make?

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:47 | 1590237 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Whatever they do, they'll want to take confidence in metals down as a primary goal. This is all a con, after all.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:53 | 1590266 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Just as I said: run into stocks, out of gold. I'm a goldbug, but some take their bugness to the extreme, which I doubt to be correct. And I look for confirmation that I'm right as a goldbug. Remember I was right too about the run to T-bonds, which hardly anyone expected.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 12:28 | 1590636 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

Johnny Bravo Lives!

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:46 | 1590233 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

Gold not yet down, wait till it drops 300$ or so, ones
hot money leaves the train.. Don't see it yet, but it's
coming.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:48 | 1590243 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Ones hot money leaves the train'....wtf are you talking about, are you on medication?

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:59 | 1590276 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

Did you see what happens to Silver ones it moves parabolic in May.. Obviously you are not a trader, cause you think Gold cannot drop, well, last move from 1500 to 1910 is abnormal and due to doom and gloom in EZ and lots of other things which is backed into the price of Gold, ones Market start to move higher off the bottom, then you'll see what I'm talking about, but why do you even care, you are Farmer, what do you know about trading? I do own Gold as well, thinking about exchange some (ones it hit 2k) on the nice Mercedes.. F*k Gold it doesn't even worth half of what it showing on the chart in USD

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:18 | 1590372 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Which Mercedes are you going to get? Color? Options? Why a Mercedes instead of a BMW? The new Jags are nice, too, 'cept I DK about the whole Tata Motors thing. Are there other nice things you're thinking about buying? I like to live vicariously through the lives of truly successful people, so I'm eager to hear about yours.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:52 | 1590495 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

"Once"

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 12:55 | 1590784 doggings
doggings's picture

I think I might have spotted some of these fabled US deficit cuts, they've clearly outsourced the troll duties to a non-native English speaking country somewhere. 


 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:14 | 1590354 nodhannum
nodhannum's picture

Hot money is already leaving the train...the dollar train!

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:58 | 1590525 tsx500
tsx500's picture

so, you missed the boat too, huh ?      too bad.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:48 | 1590242 newstreet
newstreet's picture

Last I heard, Bob was short S&P's down around 1000 last September.  Wonder if he's still got'em?

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:05 | 1590306 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

And by the way, I bough my gold at $750 that's most I was willing to pay, If I don't want it more for $1k why do I want it now for $1900? No thanks, keep it, that junk doesn't worth that much. And how come GOLD priced same as Platinum, Another Absurd.

 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 13:47 | 1591041 Robslob
Robslob's picture

"And by the way, I bough my gold at $750 that's most I was willing to pay,"

OK Mr DoucheBag 4 weeker at ZH troll...moneywise my ass...lmao

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:06 | 1590324 Bitch Tits
Bitch Tits's picture

Janjuah's postings are always so interesting if one knows how to read between the lines.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:15 | 1590361 hettygreen
hettygreen's picture

To his credit this guy was right on direction once the S&P closed above 1220 but fair value? What's that in a mark to fantasy world where obfuscation and prevarication are the dominant business characteristics? Methinks that a long overdue 'reassertion' of reality is going to leave more than a bit of a dent in that 'value analysis' Bob.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:18 | 1590371 monopoly
monopoly's picture

No argument from me. Good post.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:52 | 1590497 Don Levit
Don Levit's picture

Here is what I did to counter the volatility of the S&P.

I bought several annuities which are linked to the S&P.

If the index goes up, I capture part of the gain.

If the index goes down, I lose nothing, and start the next year from a lower base.

I am guaranteed a 3% return.

In the last 10 years, the indexed annuities have way outperformed the S&P index itself!

Don Levit

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 11:57 | 1590504 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

I think that once bonds start cratering on mass defaults gold will get hammered along with them.  The money supply is the debt supply so a decline in debt is highly deflationary and bullish for the dollar.  So it may be time to lighten up on gold, IMHO.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 12:49 | 1590753 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

But wait, the market is "praying" that the FED does something on friday to make things go up. (Actual comments by advisors on the internet and TV. It must be the sound bytes the PTB memo wants pushed)

F&*king "praying"!!!! This is what consitutues investment advice now. If the only thing propping up asset values at this point is the hope of taxpayer backed FED intervention, 700 is being rosy.

Let the markets burn.

S&P to $1.

 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 13:39 | 1590992 earlthepearl
earlthepearl's picture

He probabaly thinks 450 is the tarte but h would be called a "kook"

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 13:46 | 1591039 pendragon
pendragon's picture

#1 is a tiny mea culpa. ganjuah was tepper like balls-to-the-wall long

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 15:10 | 1591622 twotraps
twotraps's picture

A bit curious that there is no talk of limit down or trading halts.....especially in this age of Flash Crash Bullshit, are we not even leaving open the possibility that the Dow falls 3,000 in any week?   How can you give a target that goes out  a year and expect bearish activity to remain orderly until your target is hit!!

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 15:57 | 1591867 malek
malek's picture

"ejected" from the euro zone (not from the Euro)

I think he meant 'not from the European Union'

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