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Bob Janjuah: "In One Year I Expect Global Equities To Be 25%/30% Lower; The S&P Will Reach Low 1000s In October"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Nomura Bob is back with another hotly anticipated if, unfortunately, grammatically flawless, market strategy piece. Short and sweet, Bob as usual cuts right to the point.

Bob's World - Still overreacting?

Summary

Most commentators now seem to accept that what is happening is not an overreaction, rather the markets are at last on the way to fully pricing in the sad state of the global economy and global markets. I remain firmly convinced that we are in a secular bear market where stage 1 was the late 2007 to early 2009 sell-off, stage 2 was the countertrend rally from early 2009 to April 2011, and stage 3 is the current phase, where I expect the sell-off to last at least until late 2012.

The key basic problems remain weak trend growth in the DM world, which we think will continue for another three to five years, the policy errors (in our view) of the current set of policymakers, and the existing set of inadequate 'old world' policy institutions.

My secular view remains bearish. In or within a year from now I expect global equities to be 25% to 30% lower. My S&P500 target for the low in 2012 remains 800/900, and I think an 'undershoot' into the 700s is entirely possible. In this bearish outcome I would expect 10-year bund yields at 1% to 1.25%, 10 year UST yields at 1.25% to 1.5%, and 10-year gilts below 2%. The USD should do well, credit and commodities should not.

My view over the next month also remains unchanged. I expect stocks to reach their lows for 2011 in this time frame. I still expect the S&P 500 to bottom in the low 1000s in October. And I expect to see 10-year bund yields below 1.5%, 10-year UST yields below 1.75%, and 10-year gilts close to 2%. Beyond October 2011, on a two- to three-month basis into year-end/early 2012, I still see a possibility of a decent counter-trend risk rally. Should this materialise, the S&P500 could move from a low in October of around 1000, up to/towards 1200 by end-December 2011/January 2012.

On a secular basis, investors should remain cautious, and focus on strong balance sheets and strong/robust business models. I expect the next year to be about capital and job preservation. Any counter-trend rally should be tradable but short lived - it should be viewed opportunistically.

And the Full report

My last report (Bob's World: It's only just begun) was published on 23 August. A month on I have little to add as markets and data are evolving almost exactly as expected. Most commentators now seem to accept that what is happening is not an overreaction, rather the markets are at last on the way to fully pricing in the sad state of the global economy and global markets. It may sound repetitive, but I remain firmly convinced that we are in a secular bear market where stage 1 was the late 2007 to early 2009 sell-off, stage 2 was the countertrend rally from early 2009 to April 2011, and stage 3 is the current phase, where I expect the sell-off to last at least until late 2012.

Basic problems

The key basic problems remain weak trend growth in the DM world, which we think will continue for another three to five years, the shocking policy choices of the current set of policymakers, and the existing set of woefully inadequate 'old world' policy
institutions.

Growth

The consensus now appears to be moving towards the kind of weak trend growth outcome Kevin and I have been highlighting for some time, with trend DM growth expected to be around 1%pa over the next 3 to 5 years. For now, however, EM and thus global growth outlooks remain 100-200bp too high on a three- to five-year trend basis. Expect these to also be revised lower over the next few months. Decoupling may come one day, but we doubt it will happen in the foreseeable future.

Policy errors

More and more people seem to be coming around to our view that policymakers (globally, not just in the euro zone) have made some major errors in terms of diagnosis and treatment of the crisis. And they now seem to judge that responsibility for these policy errors lies not just with politicians, but also with central bankers. The policy errors are continuing, in our view, and look likely to do so until 2013. Even the consensus now sees the limits to credible policy, and can see that those limits either have or will very soon be exceeded. In 2012 I fully expect current policymakers to be revealed as „emperors with no clothes.?

Still bearish

It is for these reasons that my secular view remains bearish. In or within a year from now I expect global equities to be 25% to 30% lower. My S&P500 target for the low in 2012 remains 800/900, and I think an 'undershoot' into the 700s is entirely possible.

For the valuation-focused, assume S&P 500 EPS in 2012 of $90/$100, and P/Es in the 8 to 9 area – I see this kind of P/E as the new norm in the kind of world we are in. In this bearish outcome I would expect 10-year bund yields at 1% to 1.25%, 10 year UST yields at 1.25% to 1.5%, and 10-year gilts below 2%. The USD should do well, credit and commodities should not.

Here I have to insert an important caveat regarding Germany and bunds. My core assumption remains that in the euro zone policymakers DO NOT attempt to fix an excess leverage and low growth problem with MORE leverage! This type of plan obviously appeals to Tim Geithner, but the core euro zone should be extremely concerned by the suggestion that leveraging the EFSF is a supposed „solution?. And of course Germany should also be deeply concerned about de facto attempts to force the ECB to follow the Fed into unsterilized monetisation. Germany/the core euro zone are simply NOT the same as the US and should not attempt to follow a policy which, frankly, has in any case failed in the US!

Short-term view

My view over the next month also remains unchanged. I expect stocks to reach their lows for 2011 in this time frame. I still expect the S&P 500 to bottom in the low 1000s in October. And I expect to see 10-year bund yields below 1.5%, 10-year UST  yields below 1.75%, and 10-year gilts close to 2%.

A counter-trend risk rally

Beyond October 2011, on a two- to three-month basis into year-end/early 2012, I still see a possibility of a decent counter-trend risk rally. Should this materialise, the S&P500 could move from a low in October of around 1000, up to/towards 1200 by end-December 2011/January 2012. I see many possible drivers of this risk squeeze: Greece could be bailed out through to early 2012, which is when I would expect it to default and the restructuring of the euro zone to begin in earnest; Kevin expects a two- to three-month patch of „better? data in Q4 2011; QE2 in the UK; ECB rate cuts; positive EFSF headlines or progress; positive PSI headlines or progress. At least part of President Obama?s fiscal 'boost' should happen, and something is better than nothing. Additionally, should the S&P 500 hit the low 1000s (over the next month or so, as I expect) and the unemployment rate exceeds 10%, I believe the Fed will be unable to resist another dose of QE, whereby QE3 will be a rehash of QE2. Finally, I think positioning and sentiment by late October 2011 will be such that markets are ripe for a decent squeeze.

Of course, we may not see all or even any of these drivers, but in terms of the squeeze better in risk into year-end, only some would need to materialise. In terms of the bigger picture, however, I am sure that even if all of these drivers were to occur together over Q4, the net result would be nothing more than a short-term boost primarily to the paper value of risk assets in markets, and a boost to commodity prices. In the long run I would see QE3 (which is a redux of QE2) as an even bigger mistake than QE2, and in the context of the euro zone, I fully expect policymakers to remain badly behind the curve on substantive matters (mere word, hope and unfulfilled promises are very counterproductive).

Stay cautious

On a secular basis, investors should remain cautious, and focus on strong balance sheets and strong/robust business models. I expect the next year to be about capital and job preservation. Any counter-trend rally should be tradable but short lived – it should be viewed opportunistically. My core message is bearish. Over the past month Kevin and I have looked closely for anything that could change our view and have come up with nothing. Even the hope that EM or China can go on a multi-trillion USD investment binge to re-ignite global growth seems pretty forlorn, as China?s last fiscal and credit binge in 2008 is proving very costly to clean up. The euro zone may positively surprise us with a clear and credible plan for the region, involving major debt and economic restructuring for Greece, Portugal and Ireland, a major recapitalisation of the euro zone financial system, and the formation of a „neue-eurozone? with a hard-money ECB at the core. We can but hope. The only alternatives are immediate full fiscal union, or full on unlimited unsteralised monetisation by the ECB. Both „options? are I think extremely unlikely.

The Geithner plan

Finally, a quick comment on the „Geithner? plan for the euro zone, which proposes leveraging up of the EFSF and which ultimately relies on (not so) stealth unsterilized monetisation, without any control, by the ECB. The aim of this plan seems to be to extend the global debt “ponzi” for as long as possible, through financial alchemy by essentially boot-strapping a highly levered CDO onto the euro zone?s debt burden. We see major execution risks associated with this plan, and there is significant opposition to it already in key parts of the euro zone. Importantly, if this „plan? were ever implemented, then, when it inevitably fails - I feel this plan would be even more negative for private sector growth in the euro zone than is the case currently, and this growth weakness would totally undermine this „plan? - the eventual damage done to both the system and the real economy would dwarf the current burden that needs to be borne in order to put the euro zone onto a stable path again. And bearing in mind the highly problematic debt, deficit and economic situation in the US, which will take centre stage as the market worry in 2012, then a proverb about glass houses and stones springs to mind.

 

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Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:00 | 1732565 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Eric Shatzer: "Bob the Bear or Bob the Bull?" Fucking Bloomtool...

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:39 | 1732668 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

How long is it going to take cowardly sellers and short-sellers to realise that they are DESTROYING this country. Our forefathers spent YEARS building some of the most esteemed corporations the world has ever known, and all you can do to thank them and their faithful investors is SELL? The public has a MORAL OBLIGATION to buy-and-hold so that we don't have to experience such devastating market-turbulence. Mature investors like myself have been buying and holding for years, and this is the thanks we get?

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:45 | 1732680 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Dear MillionDollarBonus,

 

and you are finally waking up, realizing that the system into which you placed faith and trust is a fraud, manipulated by the banksters. Don´t worry, once most of these corporations are sufficiently weakened (and SME businesses are destroyed), the banksters will buy everything for pennies on the dollar, with money printed out of thin air.You will wake up a slave, in the lands where your forefathers walked as free men.  Get off you ass and done something, unless you wish for your children to walk in the chains of unpayable debt serfdom.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:04 | 1732726 Dugald
Dugald's picture

And the Devil will drag you under

with a Debt so heavy you'll never float,

Sit down, sit down,

sit down, sit down

your rockin the boat......

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:30 | 1732784 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

MDB I was wondering where you were over the weekend cuz I didnt see any of your krugman/bernanke worshipping troll speeches. but then i realized either you were too busy downloading kiddie porn, or you probably just work M-F 9am-5pm at the FIAttack watch center in the NY Fed. (or both?)

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:26 | 1732752 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I believe your anger is misdirected. The problem is not legitimate banks like JPM and Goldman Sachs. These banks are highly respected and form a large part of our economy, which is why they unfortunately had to be bailed out. The problem is GREEDY HEDGE FUNDS AND TRADERS that earn far too much money by SPECULATING. Christine Lagarde has correctly pointed out that the government should decide ALL salaries for private workers to ensure that they are receiving FAIR compensation for the work they do.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 12:17 | 1733403 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

MDB=Fascist fool/tool. You cannot really believe this garbage. Even oboy doesn't really (Ihope) believe the crap he spouts. Go back to huffpo where you would be much happier... 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:54 | 1732688 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

you mean those esteemed corporations who shipped manufacturing jobs to the far east, and gutted high paying, and low skill jobs, which allowed mobility into the middle class?

 

Or those esteemed corporations who pay less taxes than small business owner because of tax loopholes like the double irish, and the dutch sandwich.

 

Maybe it's those corporations who stopped innovating, or making real goods, but instead financialized their business models, and played the derivatives market, so the profit center was the accounting department, instead of R&D.

 

All this leverage, and market financialization  is similar to the events leading up to the panic of 1873, which lead to the 'Long Depression'.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:04 | 1732730 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Double Irish and Dutch sandwich - sound like names for great sex positions.

And in your list don't forget your executives robbing the company through outsized compensation packages.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:08 | 1732743 DosZap
DosZap's picture

MillionDollarBonus_

NOW you know the feeling of Being FRANKED (No Lube),not once,but twice,for Mr & Mrs J6P, who have taken 45% haircuts in the last 25yrs.

Buy and Fold, is more like it.You know a 25% Mkt loss takes at least a 50% return to JUST break even.Count time loss to get back, your still scroomed.

It's happened 2x's, get ready for # 3..................anyone dumb enough to HOLD in this, and the coming mkt deserves it.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:09 | 1732745 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

Anyone who does not see the emperors clothes is an imbecile.

How would you get real price discovery with out selling?

the tax man indicates my house is worth $200,000  but it won't sell for $95,000,  8 months running.

buy and hold this billionmollardonus

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:24 | 1732778 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

"the tax man indicates my house is worth $200,000  but it won't sell for $95,000".

And there you have one of the tragic outcomes of free market prices. If we simply let professional economists set the prices of consumer goods, then the market price for your type of house could be set at $200,000, and no other bids would be allowed. Buyers would be FORCED to pay $200,000 for your house if they want to buy it. This would allow resources to be allocated according to the preferences of economic experts, rather than the general public. Economists are then able to apply capital-allocation models tailored for optimal prosperity.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:34 | 1732799 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

The economists making these decisions would have to be carefully screened and vetted beforehand, though. An Ivy League PhD is the minimum requirement, it seems to me.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:46 | 1732833 g speed
g speed's picture

I've decided to become a professional economist-- so let me see--hum-- a--- OK everything you own is worth shit and everything I own is priceless so shut your stupid pie hole you poverty stricken lowlife--- how's them apples?

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:09 | 1732910 Raynja
Raynja's picture

hahahahaha I needed that laugh. Central planning will make it all better. Hahahahaha you fucking retarded troll the fed is going to fire you for economic illiteracy.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:14 | 1732927 GCT
GCT's picture

I never thought I would post this.  I need some of what MDB is smoking or snorting.  Hell I am not a professional investor but can see this market is actually scary.  Buy and hold my ass.

The bank taking care of me my ass!  Corporations helping the people please.  Corporations are all about profit and do not care who they step on to make it,  including you!  When you wake up from your buy and hold to have nothing.  You were warned.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:47 | 1732834 clones2
clones2's picture

It's called a "market"...  And your "investments" are only worth what someone else will pay for them!  Why has it taken decades for the older generation to get this.  My parents still don't get it.

My investments in Bonds are doing OUTSTANDING!!!  30% return in 2 months...  My 401K has never been higher... I'm not sure what the problem is.

I always tell them... this is YOUR RETIREMENT, YOUR MONEY, and YOUR FUTURE.  YOU better learn how to invest it.

 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:08 | 1732595 newstreet
newstreet's picture

Hoping to cover those ES 1000 shorts from last summer.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:16 | 1732617 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Really? I bet the fundamentals are a-okay - the market has been stick-saved, along with EUR at 1.334  last week.

Now it's ON LIKE DONKEY KONG!

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:10 | 1732601 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

So BTFD??

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:22 | 1732628 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

There's one in every crowd...

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:11 | 1732602 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

We wnt the old BoB bck. Ths cLear legble txt wthout errers, abbrvtns, and rndom caps wil nt wrk.  Whre's the real BoB?

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:13 | 1732610 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Funny Bob does not mention possibility of QE3 as risk to his hypothesis.  Any deflation like he predicts will be met by LSAP very quickly.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:32 | 1732656 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Yea, the market will drop short term but if you think that Bernake won't be hitting print at some point in an election year you are sadly mistaken.  The market being down 25-30% next year just won't be happening unless you are looking at it in Real dollars.  The market being down 25-30% in the next two months is likely.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:49 | 1732699 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Your post assumes that Bernanke will force the market higher by printing. I disagree. Will he print? Probably. Will it work this time to juice the markets? Doubtful. Confidence is deteriorating. Banks aren't lending, people aren't borrowing, hope is being washed away by fear, the credit collapse will be unlike anything that has been witnessed by us or written about by historians. This is epic. Bernanke (or rather, his masters) doesn't control the markets with his printer. QE1 worked beautifully to juice the markets (there was still hope), QE2 worked but less so (there was less hope), and QE3 will be a minor bump that will quickly be overwhelmed by the epic credit collapse. IMO.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:12 | 1732753 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Printing' in an election year doing more of what the people hate the most and identify as 'bailing out the rich'...in case you havent noticed there are 'Occupy Wall St' protests all over the country. They havent gone Syria style yet but soon will, and definitely will if Ogolfer embarks on another free money printfest for billionaires.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:02 | 1732728 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I cant believe people still think some huge 'bailout' is primed and ready in the wings to be thrown in at any minute. 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:37 | 1732805 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Well, sheep, that is what we've has been conditioned to believe by the actions of the last 2.5 years.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:29 | 1732613 i-dog
i-dog's picture

"The key basic problems remain weak trend growth in the DM world, which we think will continue for another three to five years, the policy errors (in our view) of the current set of policymakers, and the existing set of inadequate 'old world' policy institutions."

No ... dickhead ... the "key basic problem" is that Joe, Josephine and Junior Sixpack each wish to continue purchasing iCrap and adding more toys to the garage, the kitchen, the study, the car and the dog kennel -- while all of these useless toys are being imported from overseas against IOUs that can/will never be repaid.

The fact that the Sixpacks also have no wealth-producing jobs ... and nobody is planning on creating any wealth-producing jobs for them any time within the next century, let alone the next "three to five years"! ... also seems to have escaped your incisive analysis of 'the charts'.

For fuck's sake ... wake up! The jig is up ... the ponzi is over ... and no cunning plans from Timmay "Baldrick" Geithner, or Ben "Percy" Bernanke, to screw around with the printer are going to change that!

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:24 | 1732633 doomz78
doomz78's picture

predictions mean nothing to me in a market with 0% interest rates and the printing presses licking at the chops in the background.  The real question is what will the value of gold vs the dow jones be?  That is my only true measure of the stock market.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:53 | 1732708 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The gold price is my DOW target, and most other people's.  So mashing up paper gold with margin hikes and interventions is probably a really bad idea.  But that's cool.  I like cheap stocks.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:24 | 1732634 msmith
msmith's picture

If so, we should expect Oil to drop through critical support on the weekly chart.  http://bit.ly/pe90Vi

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:26 | 1732642 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

So what happens when the stock market keeps going down, dollar keeps going up because Eurozone is in the shitter, commodities keep going down ??

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:32 | 1732655 doomz78
doomz78's picture

well look at today.  Dollar going up and silver and gold going up.  The smart hands are coming back into silver and gold.  And the leveraged meatheads have been flushed out.  Oil and copper will keep on tanking as this euro slow motion car crash with occupants slamming into trees resumes.  \

if this starts to happen it's a big moment.  Many predicted that gold and silver would seperate from the rest of the market.  The timing of those predictions were wrong, even though fundamentally they made sense.  We might see it now becoming real.  And if it happens I think we will see gold at 2000 by years end.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:49 | 1732700 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

not yet. Still to high for them. Remember pennies on the dollar.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:28 | 1732646 fdisk
fdisk's picture

"My secular view remains bearish."

Ask yourself, who is bullish then? Pretty much nobody..

And what happens when all those doomsters sitting on the same

side of the boat?

Market simply doesn't work that way. If everyone bearish and all SHORT

the Market then All makes money? Das is Fantastish. :)))

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:06 | 1732738 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wow people still actually believe theres a miracle coming right around the next corner.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:32 | 1732647 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Sorry but this guy has lost all credibility. He should stop making these stupid S&P predictions as he has been wrong on every call for the past two years. He is starting to give Cramer a run for his money.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:28 | 1732648 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Should this materialise, the S&P500 could move from a low in October of around 1000, up to/towards 1200 by end-December 2011/January 2012.

 

Merry Christmas!! 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:34 | 1732662 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Christmas season already started before Halloween this year.  Earliest Christmas season start for US retailers ever in history.  Santa rally, indeed.  

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:35 | 1732664 warchopper
warchopper's picture

Good brief analysis. However, I think it negates the impact that HFT will have on the markets.

It's easier for the SP 500 to drop 300 or 400 points then it is for it to rally by 300 or 400 points.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:45 | 1732687 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

At some point, I'm very confident we'll see new lows.  New lows were established several times after the initial crash during both the Great Depression and Japan post-1989.   It wouldn't be unprecedented to see it in the US.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:48 | 1732694 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

slewie remains firmly convinced we are in an avalanche of never-ending, secular bullshit.

LET THEM FAIL!!!

get rid of the zombie parasites already!  they're worse than ori-0 and falak penis trolling together, with spirit of lies thrown in for "good measure"! 

never-ending bullshit, BiCheZ! 

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:47 | 1732697 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

Everyone is an expert until their not.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:52 | 1732707 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

A decision was made several weeks ago to "retire" Bob and replace him with Watson who of course was gramatically correct and therefore must be more accurate..

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 08:59 | 1732724 pasttense
pasttense's picture

"The key basic problems remain weak trend growth in the DM world, which we think will continue for another three to five years,"

 

I just don't see any reason things are going to change for the better in three to five years. What I see happening in the next three to five years is a lot more Greece style soverign debt problems (although the United States  may take from five to ten years before it goes down).

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:05 | 1732732 monopoly
monopoly's picture

And have a nice day. Geesh!

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:05 | 1732735 monopoly
monopoly's picture

We break 1,100 spoos not sure miners can withstand that pressure, for now.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:11 | 1732749 fdisk
fdisk's picture

GOLD/SILVER up, don't think Market will go down in days like this..

If GOLD heading higher or flat here, DOW might turn actually positive.

Watch.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:13 | 1732757 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

AH yes the new Gold/DOW pair...yea sure.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:16 | 1732764 vanaprogeja
vanaprogeja's picture

Bob top ticking the market on July 23rd:

To reiterate as clearly as possible, tactically I remain bullish the risk-on trade for now, and I expect to see, as a risk proxy, the S&P up at 1350/1370 over the next 4 weeks.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bob-janjuah-euphoric-short-term-apocaly...

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:19 | 1732772 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep even Bob got it wrong, buying into the miracle bailout hype, but I didnt.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:18 | 1732767 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

There will be no more free money miracles, 401K and pension brigades are who is to be sheared next, transfer of wealth to global banksters complete. Doesnt anybody get it YET?

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:18 | 1732768 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

Liquidity trap!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:22 | 1732777 ivars
ivars's picture

Here i did some further checking on patterns to make some sense in future events predicted by some of my charts:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=580#p34357

By comparing the interesting way DJIA follows Greeces Athens General index with a 1,5 year delay, including current drop ( august/september) . The patterns match almost exactly, and also compare well to my own prediction of DJIA 2011-2013 ( see in the post I referred to).

Briefly: First, have a look at the pictures :

DJIA/Greece comparison April 30, 2011:

 

DJIA / Greece comparison October 3rd, 2011:

Longest DJIA prediction I have made on April 26th, 2011( not from Greeces graphs, from other patterns I use) :

 

Since both currencies are pegged ( Greece to EUR, USA to being a world reserve currency) , at the moment where the predicted DJIA stops falling like Greece but becomes stable or even grows due to inflation, the USA DEFAULTS and deflation is replaced by inflation. By looking at Greeces graph that takes a sharp downturn(on Greeces graph, April 2011)  into levels DJIA will never reach, and calibrating the time axis of DJIA graph forward, the day of inflection point  is Jan 1st, 2015, or roughly, H2 2014. That is the day when USD will be unpegged ( as Greece is still pegged) = meaning the USA will default VERY soon after that or at that time, and USA  deflation will change to inflation.

That gives some time for silver stackers, I guess, since as long as USD stays as a reserve currency and deflates, and the price of silver in USD goes up at the time deflation begins, it will allow them to purchase more other things with this silver. This period will last for 2 years-long enough to prepare for what comes next. This crisis is much more stretched out than 1929 crisis.

The question still remains, why at deflation start, silver will move up 3 times while gold only 10-20%. But now its more clear where to look for answers as the scope has been narrowed.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 09:40 | 1732817 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

This guy covers all his bases so no matter what happens he was "correct".

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:14 | 1732930 Lama Forecasting
Lama Forecasting's picture

Nice candid view. Don't know about the timing and we might go up first but we will visit thoose levels i think.

Mon, 10/03/2011 - 10:33 | 1733016 Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

"Expect, may, could, possibility of, should"....more assumptions than predictions, Pretty vague stuff. Bit like a storefront tarot session.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 16:00 | 1766963 karmete
karmete's picture

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