Bob Janjuah: "Payback For The Rally Is Coming In Q2"
Bob "The Bear" Janjuah may appear a little greyer than his previous appearance on Bloomberg TV but his thoughts on the 'weaker-for-longer' recovery are as clarifying as ever as he sees Q2 as payback time for the misunderstanding of a mini US business cycle as a real sustainable recovery. Noting that the LTRO does not fix Europe, he sees the worst still ahead for the 'Eurozone mess'. Discussing expectations for Fed QE3 and moderating growth in Asia/EM, he believes that markets are likely to get ahead of themselves (or have done) even as he recognizes his potential underestimation of the market's perception of LTRO's impact on sentiment (pulling forward risk appetite from a QE-driven Q2 rally to the current Q1 ripfest). As we have argued, Bob notes that we are simply not addressing growth or solvency and Q2 will be the payback (looking for a 1000 print in the S&P 500 index by quarter-end) for the policy- and liquidity-driven rally we are undergoing.