Bob Janjuah: "Payback For The Rally Is Coming In Q2"
Bob "The Bear" Janjuah may appear a little greyer than his previous appearance on Bloomberg TV but his thoughts on the 'weaker-for-longer' recovery are as clarifying as ever as he sees Q2 as payback time for the misunderstanding of a mini US business cycle as a real sustainable recovery. Noting that the LTRO does not fix Europe, he sees the worst still ahead for the 'Eurozone mess'. Discussing expectations for Fed QE3 and moderating growth in Asia/EM, he believes that markets are likely to get ahead of themselves (or have done) even as he recognizes his potential underestimation of the market's perception of LTRO's impact on sentiment (pulling forward risk appetite from a QE-driven Q2 rally to the current Q1 ripfest). As we have argued, Bob notes that we are simply not addressing growth or solvency and Q2 will be the payback (looking for a 1000 print in the S&P 500 index by quarter-end) for the policy- and liquidity-driven rally we are undergoing.
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Grey.. Bitchez
Gee, here's the one guy we'll have on the entire broadcast day with a contrarian perspective so we'll go ahead and repeatedly call him a cartoonish nickname to make sure viewers know that this is all sort of a temporary lark and we'll get right back to trivial shit shooting interviews about hot stocks, how the latest European solution will solve everything, how unstoppable the American consumer is, and S&P going to the moon. Fucking Bloomberg.
And how about this anchor, "Let's put this in terms everyone can understand: US Stock Prices" - screw off, wanker.
I said S&P 900 on a good day.. Bobby says 800..
well.. look for a buying opurtunity in Metals! Upcoming!! keep some of your gun powder dry!
The FIRST! (1st) Number out of anyone's mouth is 800?
How can even ZeroHedge pump the numbers! LULZ!!
Being JP Morgans Shield is such hard work!
shield = shill?
'schild?
Volker Rule under heavy stealth attack. Could 'cost' the Banksters $315 billion of your hard earned dollars.
http://creditnewsline.com/news/volcker-rule-to-be-refined-despite-opposi...
Best to keep an eye out on this one since it provides the squid an extremely profitable escape route when the infinite amount of soon to be worthless bonds they are currently holding (to suckle the free spread juice) blow. S&P 800 could quickly become S&P 8000 if they don't nail this sucker down.
In other news...
The Fed acquires new bronze sculpture from Italian sovereign asset sale to adorn the Eccles Building.
http://www.google.ca/imgres?q=romulus+remus+wolf&hl=en&biw=1280&bih=661&...
doing some technical analysis on SPX priced in gold, looks like there will be few weeks or so and before SPX crashes in terms of gold. major wedge forming and MACD indicates SPX is way overbought. price SPX in silver and it is EXTREMELY overbought
Licking my finger and sticking it out the window, feels like everything is fucked up, rigged, and my finger's turning blue.
But that might just be the 40 below wind-chill talking....
Lee Adler piped in an interesting podcast today. Food for thought.
Fed Transparency Lies and Market Meltup Mean No QE Coming. You'll need to find the source yourself.
What I find interesting, the KY financial market pumped up bullshit prior to WEP. Enjoy.
http://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2012
Is that the red pill speaking?
Q1 under 1k? Jesus man I had this at 850 for while now -- this market is founded on nutty shit flotsam escaping hopium gas. I'm trading off of the malignant narcissists and I'm down with this strategy as elucidated above.
Fed Holds Off for Now on Bond Buys -- No QE3 That the Market Priced In
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020375040457717107287870548...
Bob is the worst kind of scumbag. Has very strong opinions about the things he knows nothing about and exists to create flow for his employers only.
Has anyone noticed that whenever a year end target for S&P 500 is published among all the usual suspects on Bloomberg etc his name is NEVER there.? Why not ? Because he has 0 strength in his convictions, never has, never will. A complete bullshit artist
Yeah, it's totally despicable how he's one of the only people they put on the air anymore that things are totally FUBAR and going downhill like a Slovenian skiier with plastic panties....
I like the way his beard, complexion, and hair match his teeth. He's nothing if not fashionable!
Mass exodus of funds from Europe (lifeboats!) all flooding the safe haven placebo of the UST, with spillover into US equity markets. Flight from disaster is not the equivalent of real economic activity and earnings growth.
The UST is the last bubble.
Mass exodus of people as well. In Spain many have left for Brazil. Of course in the USA "we just move around inside our crazy Continent" so very few are leaving Europe to come here. Canada and Australia I hear however...
It makes sense. Most of these assholes can go ahead and book gains tomorrow and beat the market again when the S&P goes nowhere for the next 11 months. They can sit on the beach until then.
Although Like Faber said today Ben is waiting with his next trillion for the first sign of trouble.
Like Faber said today Ben is waiting with his next trillion for the first sign of trouble
But isn't the reality that Benbux are stealthily flowing to the sinking SS Euro, while investors in European securities head for the exits as fast as the Gingerbread Man? That's basically a QE flight with one-stop in Merkozy's jungle.
Pump, pump, dump.
Remember, 2011 was flat.
If you got in and got out at the right times you did well, but you were chasing the tail of the HFT algo's.
They make the meal and feast on it, living off the volatility, meanwhile retail investors are left searching for crumbs on the floor and scratching their asses watching CNBC and thinking Cramer is going to tell them something useful. Smug financial anchors doing vacuous stories about alpha this and hot stock that, all knowing damn well the poor SOBs on the other end of the boob tube were fucked before they even got out of bed in the morning because the squid owns every last fucking shred of this charade formerly known as a market.
RP...I 'hope' you're wrong...But 'believe' you're right...I haven't held anything longer than 3-4 days so far this year...Something's just not right...I can hear it, smell it...But just can't see it...But Hell...Look at the Nasdaq from Jan 1st...Who would have thunk!...................
I really don't know WTF people are wringing their hands about...
Despite the overall "brokenness" of the markets... One axiom has seemed to remain steady...
THE MARKET (or, important "tops") DON'T OCCUR ON BAD NEWS... Taking that into consideration... This all seems normal at this point...
That was eloquent, redpill. The truth wrapped up in one concise paragraph.
Last time Bob appeared here, he estimated 13 January would be a good time to get short.
...didn't give a year though
Who does Bob work for? Last I checked it was a bank. Doesn't that answer your question? He is tool like others out there to bring bears out from hiding only to be slaughtered. It's amazing that anybody listens to him.
Thanks Bob!
Since you repeat this theory over and over, what is your real point? Please map it out for us.
This bear be hibernating....
thats when i dumped my UK bank stock.
damn.
Da Big Bull still chasing the numbers up:
* The situation of the euro will be much better in 2012, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Thursday. Speaking at a press conference on the margins of a seminar of central banks of the Eurosystem and the Gulf countries, Draghi highlighted that "in the last few months we have observed indeed fantastic progress in improving the fundamentals in many countries, in taking care of fiscal consolidation, in starting addressing structural reforms, so that I would say the merits of the credit of these countries, which had gone down, now it's going up, now it's improving. And the overall situation for the euro will look much better in 2012."
LOVE Bob. Thx for sharing Tyler.
long term repo will work to delay reality for 3 years. after that the check comes
Markets frontfrun and price in the 3 year LTRO in less than 3 months.
I see lots of "Dead Bodies" piling up.
Bob Janjuah
David Rosenberg
Art Cashin
etc.
These guys haven't a clue about reading the tape and detecting strong market action.
I'll have a full list as soon as we break out to new highs.
Anyone see the European banks today?
As I predicted, 2012 will be one of the best years ever for European stocks, especially financials.
So I hold my Swedish stocks then?
where do you get your drugs at robo? Must be good shit! I want some!!!
Robo's +1 to -1 ratio is nearing all time highs. market prob will crash tomorrow
Oh man..."THE ROBO-CATOR"
god bless dear robo. he's an optimist. and, he's clearly NOT an insider. i hope the boy does well for himself. look at mcdonalds stock roar for example. that stock is roaring. negative for humanity, but that's the problem. i have sentiments on what i can and won't invest in. robo doesn't. he can read the market.
he's already extrapolating 2012 results from 12 (low volume) trading days.... brilliant!!!
by crikey, you're an idiot.....
"as we break out to new highs."
When is that, and how high?
He's talking about his new drug high...
Robo...I don't know why everybody dogs you relentlessly...Atleast you're sticking to your guns...Personally, I have no idea where things will be next week...Next month...Not even next year....
"Robo...I don't know why everybody dogs you relentlessly"
Probably because he acts like a Cowboys fan. He's always around when the market is up, but he's rarely around when the market is dumping.
Better yet, he's the poker player that bad beats you on a gutshot draw after he catches the river .. despite chasing the gut from the flop despite having to call a huge all-in stack for this privilege. Afterwards, he brags about how great of a poker player he is. That's our beloved Robo.
He'll get his glory occasionally, but his rep is well deserved. If you want to be his cheerleader, trust me - there is a very short line for that privilege.
There are a few bulls in here that make great cases for going long, but generally that involves precious metals.
Homer...I'm kind of my own cheerleader...We all can use some alter-opinion around here from time to time...It keeps you honest about your assumptions...Admittedly, it's tough to do...But still is necessary...
homer, out of the park that post. Well done, I wish I could give you more than one thumbs up.
"These guys haven't a clue about reading the tape and detecting strong market action."
You still forget that it took the DJI 4 years to get from 10k to 14k.. yet only 9 months to get from 14k to 6.5k. They can still be wrong the next couple years but you'll probably lose more for your clients than they would if reality ever sets in (and it will one day - we just don't know when).
has nothing to do with reading the tape. has everything to do with simple arithmetic. this is the debt. this is the debt service payments. this is the income. how long to pay back the debt at zero percent. how long to pay it back at rising rates. impossible to pay back. and - they are reading that and just saying to themselves - how? that said, bennie and company will not stop printing and qe3 is on already (mbs and treasury reinvestments) and qe4 will come regardless of where the stock market is. think bank earnings were good last few days? and they are borrowing boat loads at zero and still can't make money. and mortgage loans under 4% and still nobody borrowing. enjoy your robotrader ride while you can. you're stupid enough to not get out before it blows. may not even blow for a year. but when it does - i hope you will bring me another glass of red wine without an attitude, because if i catch attitude, tip goes to a buck.
I am actually starting to think that Robot is another MDB play...cause that shit is off the charts stupid!
ROBO r u fuckin kidding--- European banks up well when you fix the game by eliminating short selling you artificially stabalize price otherwise these stocks would be half their current value.....by the way what did you do with you lehman shares put them in a frame and hange them in your house.... by the way the frame is worth more than the leh cert dumb ass
Oh my, he might be right. I personally think that there won´t be any more Fed QE until after the election but we´ll probably see backdoor QEuro from Draghi to keep the can properly kicked regarding bonds. That will end/cease to have any effect around summer.
This guy is expecting 300 points to come off the S&P in the next 9-10 weeks...Ouch!!! Then QE III in 2nd quarter...Buy and Hold is so dead...
Really, I think Bob is more confused and tired (look at his eyes) than even this disorganized interview lets us see. In his last research note, he clealry underestimated sentiment boost from LTRO, and to think that we drop to 1000 in the next 9-10 weeks is virtually impossible given LTRO 2.0 in February--hence the postponement of payback till Q2. Even Bob is fudging at this point.
I've had good gains so far this year buying the 'beatin' up' and selling on 'bounces'...Hope it continues...
His grey hair is awesome
Hilarious watching this guy babble on while the futures screen below keeps printing green with ES over 1,300
Man, some of these bearish prognosticators must be pulling their hair out.
Do you understand what "Q2" means, moron?
He said SPX 1,000 by end of QUARTER 1. March.
And when do the Greeks get their money? When are the next note and bond auctions longer than LTRO?
does a 68% haircut to greek govt bonds not improve solvency?
Eggsacly....BTFD
I think Bob is spot on! I think all these traders still have their drinking goggles on from the Holidays. Less than shitty news seems to be the reason to buy these days. I'm sure that jobs number will be revised from " super shitty" to " sorta shitty" , next week. Or should that be visa versa?
AZO, such a fraud, 7billion in debt taken to do stock buybacks to boost the share price while eddie cashes out. Such a ponzi!
It sure seems to me that people (Bob included) keep thinking that this will end. But, that assumes that the FED won't go ALL THE WAY with this shit. They will. They will cornhole literally everyone. This ain't stoppin.
The genie is completely out of the bottle and there isn't anyway to put him back in.
That's pretty much what Marc Faber said on Squawk CNBC Europe this morning.
He said based upon unfunded U.S. liabilities and debt U.S. bonds should be rated junk status. But then he said this:
"...if the S&P drops 200 points, I guarantee you the Fed will come in with QE3 and QE4 and so forth."
In other words, Quantitative Easing to the moon to keep floating equities.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46055852
No, there is no "payback" coming, both Fed and ECB have printing presses, they can bail out anyone getting in trouble ...any bank that is.
I used to think Germany leaving the EU would be paypack. But no, it wouldn't be payback. ECB is accepting completely worthless assets from banks in exchange for (freshly printed) cash. They don't need Germany's "guarantees" anymore.
And yes, LTRO *IS* QE. There's no practical difference.
And yes it's an over-spending and over-borrowing problem, not a liquidity problem.
Providing open-ended liquidty (credit) so national governments can keep over-spending and over-borrowing is the problem.
The timeline of Janjuah"s tactics is so fucked up, how can we go to 1000 in Q1 with massive bullish LTRO sentiment. And if Janjuah thinks QE3 comes in Q2, how can Q2 be time for payback? QE3 sentiment will definitely spill into Q3, so that is another no go as well.
Investors intellegance says Bearish sentiment was peaking the week of 10/12/2011. That's one quarter ago. Human nature being what it is, we can get back to October sentiment levels several times faster than we got out of them. His speculation, I'm sure is that the fall of the S&P in Q2 will lead to QE3 in the same quarter. That's a three month window for the S&P to fall and the fed to take action, that's perfectly reasonable and in line with past history,
You are 100% correct. I can't wait to see the IMF raise 500b. The Brazilians (lowered rates yesterday) and all the BRIC's , are suffering.
The art of cross collateralization is alive and well. The +1 was for COG. You need to reread the the article slaughterer. He was implying that LTRO was the QE that QE-3 was supposed to be.
Geezer, I'll give you a choice amount of silver if you can produce a picture showing the naked picture of your avatar.
Hang on, I'll ask her how she'd feel about doing a nude photo :)
To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day
This knucklehead has been calling for SnP 800 for a year and a half now. And the dip-shit announcer says "You have been so accurate with your calls so far..." ha! What a joke!
Hemay be off in terms of the magnitude, but we didhit 1074 on the S&P on 10/4/2011, a little over 3 months ago.
Get back in the tub archimedes
payback on the DAX. Oh yeah. Europe you are so overbought it is...pitiful.
ttown: AZO is the second greatest stock in world history, 2nd only to AAPL
$25 to $350 since 2001.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=azo&inst...
Man, that stock was a huge wealthbuilder for whoever stuck with it during:
1) Tech stock collapse in 2002
2) Financial market implosion in 2008
3) Flash Crash in 2010
4) Eurozone Meltdown in 2011
Plus Arab Spring, Japan Tsunami, worst economy in 75 years, massive unemployment, world record number of people on food stamps, etc.
GG's been pretty damn good too...From sub-dollar to the $50-$60 range...And there have been many bad ones...Shit...Kodak was a Dow-30... what 7-8 years ago!!!
Yea, so was RIMM, dude, right? Hahahaha...
Absolutely! For every 1 Tech that has made it big...5 have bit the dust it seems...Not to say that IBM or AAPL haven't rocked the block...God I remember back in the Tech crash in the summer of 02'...AAPL was like $12 freakin' dollars or something!!!!
GLW was my fave - bought in at $1.50 in 2002 sold out at 22+ in 2006
Hey dumbass, anybody can pick winners after the fact.
Oh cranky-o-geezer!!!!!!!!!!!!
Oh dip-Shit Delusian? Let's talk ?
What would you like to talk about YC?
Eddy Lampert must be thanking his lucky stars for AZO because SHLD is sucking wind big time. He does love the retail sector.
AZO is a shell. Negative book value. Buybacks are the only thing supporting huge insider sales.
I'd love to short that pig, it's just hard being short something that keeps going up.
The Fed is causing war, hardship and starvation around the world, applying constant pressure coupled with monetary disarray. The world reserve currency banking cartel is sinking all the economies of the world; and if they aren’t sinking it’s because the cartel is lying about it.
The point is, the investment banker cartel members are not paying their way; we have crooks everywhere and the U.S. is setting the example by forcing the other countries and entities to go along.
It was Ben Bernanke who, with Alan Greenspan, oversaw the derivatives time bomb that has turned into a worldwide financial weapon of destruction. All done behind closed doors by a few powerful men.
Eastman Kodak Company, in ZH news today, was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average index on July 18, 1930, listed as one of the DJIA companies for the next 74 years, ending in 2004
The only one of the 30 companies still in existence that composed the original DOW industrials in 1896 is GE, a company “that has made itself functionally insolvent due to its involvement with finance and derivatives,” in the words of Nathan Martin of Nathan’s Economic Edge.
According to Darryl Robert Schoon in his article, China, 2012 and the Von Mises’ Crack-Up Boom,“ the remarkable rise in China’s GDP reflects the just as remarkable rise of the Dow during the same period.”
Says Schoon: “The correlation between the rise of China’s GDP and the rise of the Dow is unmistakable. It’s also the reason why China’s growth is unsustainable. China’s rapid growth was fueled by the unprecedented expansion of the US money supply – an expansion directly responsible for America’s exploding appetite for consumer goods from China and the US dot.com stock market bubble in the 1990s.
“Appointed Fed chairman in 1987, Alan Greenspan presided over the greatest credit and monetary expansion in US history, an expansion which led to America’s three largest speculative bubble; the 1992-2000 dot.com bubble, the 1991-2006 consumer bubble and the 2002-2006 real estate bubble; three bubbles whose cumulative collapse would derail the world economy and set in motion Ludwig von Mises’ crack-up boom.”
As Schoon says, “Money is no longer a store of value. It’s a trap for the unsuspecting that has already been sprung.”
The credit boom is built on the sands of banknotes and deposits. It must collapse... If the credit expansion is not stopped in time, the boom turns into the crack-up boom; the flight into real values begins, and the whole monetary system founders. – Ludwig von Mises, Human Action, 1949