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BofA Equity A Soaring Year To Date Outlier, But Why?
Presented with little comment suffice to ask why the rest of the mortgage-exposed financials would not also be rallying if this move higher in BAC stock was all based on mortgage refi program rumors off of Bernanke's white paper released yesterday and in general because it is an election year and Obama will do anything for a short-term vote grabbing fix? It appears just as likely that there is active arbitrage catch up between BofA's CDS and stock from a notable underperformance in mid-December back to 'fair' now.
BofA (yellow) has hugely (idiosyncratically) outperformed YTD.
BofA stock notably underperformed relative to CDS in December and this rally - topped off today - seems like it is as much driven by reversion in this arbitrage strategy as it is a breakout of a 50DMA or real money being put to work. CDS for BofA is not moving anything like as exuberantly as stocks...
Naturally all of this is only relevant for those who care why the are actually buying (or selling) stocks as opposed to blindly following the herd. Unfortunately these days the former have been literally stampeded to death by the latter.
Chart: Bloomberg
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broke some resistance levels and moving average crossovers indicated a rally. as much as I hate BAC, i made decent money on it today.
you gotta start thinking like an algo to play this market. fuck the fundamentals. put all your profits in gold though
Warren Buffet needs to sell all his BoA stock and at least make profit of a penny on each.
This sucker is about to burst.
Or....it's about to be nationalized.
the latter and kleptocrats like Mr. Buffet will get their full dollar back and then some, you won't, nor will anyone not politically connected.
If the move was "back to fair", it would be in the opposite direction!
All their stock should be turned over to the bottom 10% of the population. That would work wonders in setting things straight!
-John
http://www.youtube.com/carmarketer
yep gotta think like an algo and buy declining volume and higher trending markets - http://hedge.ly/xirUxt
BAC is SHORT of Unicredit :)
screw this stock
Ben is gonna give them money? Or Citi is gonna buy them?
Or as usual, nothing matters, only what PPT do?
Probably Ben giving Citi money to buy them. Since it's pretty established they're toast, I'm guessing the move reflects some guaranteed rescue plan for them (e.g. people who buy in now can't lose if this is indeed the case.)
That was my damn problem. Shorted the shit out of it and it wouldn't go down after it broke a few levels. I didn't lose money, but I didn't make much either and almost got caught with my pants down. Usually this kind of rally would be when I'd open new shorts but... not after my last few trades didn't pan out. Just moving on to a different stock.
Be careful with this one. It's a bitch to get right.
Just exited. My 3rd failed attempt in few weeks to make money shorting those fuckers. Cost me 1pc of portfolio. I'm giving up. But I hope they go bust anyway.
before citi or anyone else buys out or parts of bac - three former presidents will have had to pass-away?
Anybody who thought BOA was going away was stone.
It's the main anchor retail chamber of the hive.
Google
Analysis of the Occult Symbols Found on the Bank of America Murals
http://vigilantcitizen.com/sinistersites/analysis-of-the-occult-symbols-...
great link.
hopefully this can help wake up some sheeple too:
http://www.theforbiddenknowledge.com/manipulation/index.htm
I've often wondered what happens when libertarians experiment with drugs.
Now I know.
Come on guys. Shorting B of A now? You have to think more like a sociopathic criminal. If you were TPTB, would you let B of A tank, without first making it into a toxic waste dump of epic proportions? Or before making money from front running the refi-rumour rallies or before preparing to maximize the bankruptcy and nationalization of the good bank as a political ploy to frighten the sheeple into supporting more pro-bankster legislation? This will happen post Greek default and post election, of course. Why rush things and lose out on all of the insider trading and other guaranteed profit streams when the tax payer funded Bail Out has already been guaranteed by the Fed with the Merrill move?
Media reporting 1.2T US mortgage bailout. Involves massive refi's
You wish
I don't wish. Obama effort to get re elected. It's all over the radio where I live
any principal reductions will be paid for in taxes. what a fucking scam.
The US is already taxed to the hilt and any more meaningful amount of revenue can't be brought in through taxes. More socialization of housing will be payed by stealing money from your bank account through inflation.
TheSilverJournal.com
No doubt, but BAC will hit $10-12 before it hits $5 again. There are no more doves in the Fed and election is coming. It was a big question before whether the 'route out' would be crash or inflation. I think the die is now cast.
You had to know it was coming. Get ready for the next phase...elimination of the mortgage interest deduction.
That won't happen because the banks need housing to be propped so they don't go under. If anything, homeowners will get more benefits, not less.
TheSilverJournal.com
no, it'll be "paid" for by printing yet more money. the people who are actually a net positive for govt revenues (which is now a minority of the population) can't bear much more in taxes, and they'd adjust their productivity accordingly anyways. and there's no way O is going to start taxing the dependant class. so printing it is. O's only horizon is Nov 2012 - he literally couldn't care less what doom he sets in motion before that point, as long as the bill doesn't come due before then.
Gotta admit, it's a great scam. The wage slaves are so afraid of what will happen if they dare step off the plantation and stop paying taxes, Massa never has to worry. He's got his bitches in check. Ho strollin these bitches since 1913.
Well, I think the masses are informed enough to see what happened to Ol'e Schiff's pop. He's still there. Law enforcement still happly on their side
ACORN gets $1.2T?
Seems it will all be money for Ogolfer's campaign.
WSJ reporting as well ...
"If the blind lead the blind, both shall fall in the ditch."— Jesus Christ
The only question is when.
Ditch has to be dug first.
PPT determined to convince everyone that a dropping Euro and rising dollar isn't bad for the stock market. ES action is absolute comedy.
He who controls the ES controls the market.
Because they can and will and they know that there isn't a damn thing you, I, or anyone else can do about it.
Pretty simple.
BAC was probably recently "super-made" and will now be called Bank of Government.
Next Corzine will be appointed head of the FED...which will own BOG.
Then BOG will own your ass....and everone else's ass, and 80% of all real-asstate.
Then FED will give you the Merrill Edge to ru(i)n your 401K, IRA and pensions.
And then FED will arrange to tax it all away.
And Corzine will then become the new head of the IMF.
Makes sense ?
the others took off before the end of the year, but they'll come back...
Who is the lead underwriter and global co-ordinator of the catastrophic Unicredit rights issue and who is going to get left holding a huge wad of unsubscribed and unsaleable shares? Step forward Bank of America ML.
Who is the lead underwriter and global co-ordinator of the catastrophic Unicredit rights issue and who is going to get left holding a huge wad of unsubscribed and unsaleable shares? Step forward Bank of America ML.
"No one could have seen this coming."
Who would have thought being insolvent in banking is such good business?
The Fed is trying to get everyone to pay as much as possible for their house in order to save the banks because much of banks assets are backed by housing and mortgages.
The real impediment for economic recovery is the squandering of resources with propping up housing. Hence, the problem with central planning is what one organization thinks is good, is not necessarily the best path to prosperity. To make matters worse, the Fed wants to further socialize housing through expanding Fannie and Freddie. So the banks are allowed to profit while housing is being propped up and all of the losses are put on to tax payers and dollars holders for when housing inevitably tanks again.
TheSilverJournal.com
I have seen this movie before...pump and dump. Not so much BAC but the market in general. Look at the sentiment numbers.
The algos target pain points....max pain....
ALWAYS lonely at the top.
And, what makes it so hard is the gaps....tomorrow we will gap down big or up big so you cant do shit without feeling the pain overnight.
DEATH RATTLE in other words...cant help but feel this is the markets death rattle....
Slow, slow burn...like having the upper hand in the game of Monopoly and just slowly and painfully playing it out to the end....
I thought the pump and dump went out with Joe Kennedy....my bad
I say we gap up overnight and then count on an 8 SD NFP beat to add fuel. That is the only way they can break it out over the late October highs. After that WTFK.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11366791/1/obama-1-trillion-mortgage-fix-rumor-pushing-bank-stocks.html
markets higher??
thank Limbaugh who spent a good part of his show earlier all but promising his audience that Obama will be delivering a trillion dollar stimulus in the form of mortgage forgiveness for all
strange I believe the stress tests due next week, and they are strong....sarc.. leaked
Bingo !
Before the stress test, BAC must be inflated by liquidity injections. This must be the word...so everyone knows BAC's paper will be fluffed up before the stress test...so benefit from the Bernank.
Bernank must be doing the injections now.
Which orifice will Bernank be injecting the liquidity ? Will it look puffy once he's done ?
Remember those screaming how the MBI ruling would destroy BAC's stock? Where is all that talk?
Case study in why shorting equities is far harder than being long. This equity trades like an option at these levels. He'll even American airlines would surge 100 plus pct in a day AFTER it declared bankruptcy.
They have no choice but to bail out as best they can, now that the "gap" is the Grand Canyon.
It is true it all will go all at once now , when , if it goes.
The Masters have made it so.
The irrational, illogical, contrarian trade is working like magic again...all you need to know in this broken down, manipulated to the hilt, rigged equity market.
Bernanke will insure USAAA goes to USAA with this give away.
Pimco long of what ? MBS.
Early sight of White Paper no doubt
That brilliant Warren Buffett knew all along this cime ring in DC would do anything they had to in order to help line that scumbags pockets.
are we trying to make sense out of nonsensical moves again?
Wells Fargo needs this $1T mortgage deal to offset a slower market in drug money laudering.
I would love anyones comment, but what I think it means is the agreement has been made that the fed will but countrywide from them. Which is a portfolio of guess how much? 1.2 how much?
Somebody with a big short position has to be moving out.
Would like to know who has taken order instructed by whom to jump start the algo trade on BAC. I pay a tray.
I would not touch BOA stock with a hazmat suit & asbestos lined condom on.
It made a sweet day trade today. An hour or two of showering gets rid of most of the "Spawn of Evil" cooties. Just don't hold overnight or the stock can cause serious nightmares.
Bernanke's white paper suggested while in was in the best interests of the GSEs to pursue putbacks, it might not be good for the "overall economy"
Sounds like a backdoor bailout...
The hedgies have thrown everything at this stock to get it to < $5. With QE3 coming and ZIRP to infinity, looks like short covering. Question is how long it lasts.
this doesn't surprise me, it's a bet that b of a will eventually turn things around, and if they do, could be an easy 4 bagger, i personally think b of a is a despicable lying thieving shit company so am unwilling to take the risk
hmmm ... I wonder what BANG DA HO thinks about this ...
200,000 april 7 calls bot yesterday at .22 and .23 hmmmmmmm
If this refinancing program allows people with higher interest rates refi at lower interest rates how is that good for the banks? Also is it a refi or a streamline? If it is a refi and you have to start a new 30 years that kind of sucks.
When BoA dipped under $5 (last week?) I said it was an excellent short tem trade. Now it trades at $6,27, a nice 27% profit for whomever followed my advice.
I got junked beyond regonition of course. Are there any traders left on this blog?
Okay lets test you out there chef. What do you think of the vxx here? It's sitting on major support here. If it breaks below it is bombs away. If it holds it could be a great trade. Whats your take?
To be honest I couldn´t tell. American ETF´s aren´t really traded much here. If we want leveraged shorting there are numerous local ETFs and minifutures (warrants).
I speak when I feel I can make the call. In this case I can´t so I´ll pass.
fair enough
To be honest I couldn´t tell. American ETF´s aren´t really traded much here. If we want leveraged shorting there are numerous local ETFs and minifutures (warrants).
I speak when I feel I can make the call. In this case I can´t so I´ll pass.
*double post*
I was thinking of buying a call at $5 strike, Jan/Feb expiry, but logic stopped me from doing it.
i would prefer to be an investor. that has been taken away. at times i was confident about playing trades. but - as a private citizen, there's no way i can profitably compete with the competition having the insider information and the HFT's. they will get all my savings shortly - but in the mean time, i might as well spend some on beer and cheap chinese junk then give it to them in the shorter term.
Totally agreed - which is why I have less than 10% of my total portfolio in the market. Cash is king. I would prefer to be an investor as well, but who do you trust in this environment? Fundamental analysis has gone out the window - otherwise BAC would be $3 not $6. How do you find good buys with all the HFT action going on? What's inflated and what's not?
BAC is a share I don't want to go long in - who knows what they are liable for. Customers everywhere hate them and are angry with them. How the hell are they surviving? It seems like the most reasonable play here is a long-dated in the money put. I bought previously in the money puts on them ($6, expiring Aug 2012) for $1. Hoping for another run down to $5 in the next 1-2 months.
It's a small play, but can work out in a big way... Since the market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent, this is not a big risk play for me.
Incidentally it was at a 400 spread before the bailout in March 2009.
I only had to get to the top of the third page of this white paper to have my stomach turn and blood rise. When Bernanke states (I have provided the bold emphasis)
"that although policy action in these areas could facilitate the recovery of the housing market, economic losses will remain, and these losses must ultimately be allocated among homeowners, lenders, guarantors, investors, and taxpayers"
he posits his opinion as operative fact. No, sir, not me. I was force to overpay for my home because of all the funny money that you and your predecessor flooding the system with during the past decade. Now you say that I must pay again.
Wow...9% in a day even after having a 20%+ move in a few sessions.
...BENTASTIC!
Reason pretty simple 250 000 call 6 January expiry were bought at the ask yesterday, once you have put this trade on you better make sue the Stock close the next day well aboe your strike price and better have enough fire power with your network of firends to guarantee this outcome. Is Rajaratnam out of Jail?
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