BofA Warns Upcoming "Desperate Measures" By Authorities Will Result In Another 2008 Market Collapse

Tyler Durden's picture

Last week we had Citigroup warning that the market bottom is about to fall out, as the Fed is more than likely to disappoint already very lofty expectations (according to various estimates from both Goldman and the second Tier banks, i.e., all of them, the market has priced in roughly $500 billion in QE3 already). Today, Bank of America, which may or may not be with us much longer, has taken this desperate alarmism several notches further, and is warning that due to the gridlock in both the fiscal ("fiscal authorities have bombarded the markets with a quadraphonic message of hopelessness") and monetary ("the Fed is out of bullets anyway") stimulative pathways, the likely outcome of anything from DC will be nothig short of a disaster. To wit: "rather than a repeat of 2010, when the Fed saved the day with QE2, we think we are moving closer to a repeat of 2008, when major policy errors devastated the economy." For once we actually agree with Bank of America: "In our view, the pressure to “do something” is now far more likely to result in more desperate or radical measures, even if it is bad policy." Does this mean that we are looking at a TARP "vote down" market reaction this Friday if indeed the chairman disappoints? We will know for sure in about 100 hours, which just may be the longest 100 hours for bulls since the start of the artificial and solely QE inspired bear market levitation in March of 2009. 

From Bank of America, "Deja Vu"

Summers just haven’t gone that well for markets in recent years. Many have noted the similarities between 2011 and 2010, or even 2008, but in fact the interest rate pattern in each of the past six years has been depressingly and remarkably similar: rising rates and economic optimism in the first half of the year ultimately giving way to pessimism and lower rates in the second half. It indeed seems like we have been here before. But rather than a repeat of 2010, when the Fed saved the day with QE2, we think we are moving closer to a repeat of 2008, when major policy errors devastated the economy.

For mortgages and housing, the 6-year pattern appears particularly problematic. Rates have hit new lows in each successive year since 2006 (Chart 13) but the response, in terms of increased home purchase mortgage applications (Chart 14), has also decreased in each year. The latest week’s sharp 9% drop in purchase activity, as mortgage rates hit a record low, was especially disturbing. The purchase index has not yet taken out the low from a year ago, but it is close to doing so. It appears as if the Fed’s multi-year move to lower rates has been pushing on a string all along when it comes to housing demand. The muted response of the refinancing index (Chart 15), while good for the IO trade we have long recommended, is another indication of the bad news on the mortgage and housing front.

Regardless, as Ethan Harris and Michelle Meyer note in Helplessly Hoping, the Fed is about out of bullets anyway. Meanwhile, the “fiscal authorities have bombarded the markets with a quadraphonic message of hopelessness,” proving that they are “too dysfunctional to deal with the US’s massive fiscal problems.” The situation in Europe appears to be even worse. Against this backdrop, economic risks are increasingly skewed to the downside, indicating that risk aversion is the appropriate market positioning.

We have been steadily adjusting our more optimistic view of risk taking in securitized products downward over the past month, as the debt ceiling debacle and its devastating market impact became reality. At this point, after another week of discouraging market and economic data (most notably for us the mortgage application data cited above), we turn more negative and see little reason to have anything but a market weight exposure to securitized products, in spite of the attractive nominal valuations (Chart 16, Table 5). Within agency MBS, we switch to a down-in-coupon bias and recommend paring back on IO exposure. In credit, our bias is to the highest quality, top-of-the-capital structure bonds.

The environment has become too overwhelmed by uncertainty, particularly on the policy front. In our view, the pressure to “do something” is now far more likely to result in more desperate or radical measures, even if it is bad policy. The most obvious immediate candidate for this is the concern that has hung over the agency MBS market for the past year: elimination of institutional obstacles to refinancing such as loan level pricing adjustments (LLPA) as a quid pro quo for a cut in the preferred dividend payments. The muted refinancing response to historically low interest rates shown in Chart 15 likely has become unacceptable from a policy perspective, and responses are available.

This, along with the increased possibility of a low for long rate environment, particularly if the Fed implements Operation Twist as expected, requires us to reset the benign prepayment expectations we have had over the past year. The capacity argument we made just last week now appears less likely to stand in the rapidly evolving political and economic environment. Just as banks have been pressured to modify existing borrowers, we can look for pressure to be exerted on banks to expand capacity, lower the primary-secondary spread, and refinance high rate borrowers who have faced challenges moving through the refinancing pipeline. In addition, the simple economic incentives of the refinancing business should help drive capacity expansion.

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Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Just about a month ago weren't all the banks holding hands and singing Kumbaya? I smell a coordinated dump.

Can we get a courtesy flush please?

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Can we have Bank of America wipe its own ass, please?

egdeh orez's picture

Longest 100 hours is a victory for the bulls!

malusDiaz's picture

The Mark aka BoA, has learned of what role its about to play...

zenbones's picture

Somebody's gotta be sacrificed to Mammon.

TruthInSunshine's picture

The Bernank will forget to sterilize the AIDS-Ebola-FleshEatingBacterium contaminated needle and/or give a fatal dose of Heroin to the Wall Street Junkies who now are completely jonesing for a fix.

Their skin is crawling and they have imaginary snakes, spiders and roaches crawling all over their bodies.

Hurry Bernank! Administer the fatal dose!

Do it, Bernank, do it!

Ahmeexnal's picture

Wikileaks confirms destruction of BofA bombshell evidence:


Seems like BofA handed out phat bonuses to the script kiddies.

Is that why Assange is off the hook?

akenathon's picture

okay let's assume that this time around no one get fundings as in 2008...

1) Run on banks...I personally think that if that happens...they will close the banks after 48 hours

2) People get killed on the Treasuries as the money will be for sure blocked for "other" purposes...which are numerous

3) The world's finance as we know it will cease to exist

4) They will revalue the US dollar and Europe will follow (they are both the biggest holders of Gold) by attaching to the US dollar

5) They will make US dollar convertible into Gold at a rate far higher than today as such that all the liabilities are covered by Gold assets

6) China will be left with nothing and their hopes to become a financial super power are wiped out in a single day as all their assets will be down 50%

So if money gets nothing and Bretton Woods II is to come back where to put the money apart from Gold?


Ahmeexnal's picture

So if money gets nothing and Bretton Woods II is to come back where to put the money apart from Gold?


1s2 2s2 2p6 3s2 3p6 4s2 3d10 4p6 5s1 4d10


Cast Iron Skillet's picture

you a goddamn chemist or something? just say, "SILVER!!!" :-)

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

"Desperation is a stinky cologne." --  Chief Bruce Grady

glenlloyd's picture

In other words BOA is up shit creek without a paddle if the Fed doesn't 'do something'

Freddie's picture

I guess BOA's mortgages, HEILOCs and credit cards they handed out to illegal aliens did not go very well.  Real estate armageddon brought to you by community organizers.

Piranhanoia's picture

a firehose and a hazmat suit

Lord Welligton's picture

and Fulfilled by Amazon.

Gift-wrap available.

That's just sick.

Use of Weapons's picture

When I thought my mind could no longer be shocked, I discover an entire market of Chinese made plastic appendages designed so fatties can wipe. That's about the only growth sector in the US economy at the moment, pissed off I missed it.


Times were when that was a royally appointed position, or you paid good money to a nurse - democracy in action, one supposes.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

You may be shocked but I'm actually becoming quite annoyed with Dr. Bernanke. Bernanke has become frustratingly hawkish over the course of this year and my equity portfolio is now heavily underwater due to his lack of decisiveness. I sincerely believe it is time for Obama to pick a new Fed chairman who has the courage to provide the monetary stimulus that this economy is BEGGING for.

walküre's picture

Not sure if you're joking. But you actually make sense. Dr. Ben hasn't done what is required.

Ask yourself why. Answer, he's not there to serve YOU. His friends have made it rich and now you're going to loose.

Joe Sixpack's picture

Are you sure he is not one of the Bernank's pals? Maybe he is still waiting for his payout (ala Madoff).

walküre's picture

Perhaps. But what just comes to mind is that Obama could put the blame squarely on Bernanke if the economy goes into the toilet and ride his 2012 campaign to go "all in" with Americans on the back of failed Fed policies.

MillionDollarBonuses may be a troll, but there's an angle to the rhetoric.

Obviously most here know that QE's intention was a "Friends of Ben" program.

rgd's picture

Dr. Bernanke is the student of the Great Depression.  He doesn't have to answer to nobody.  He knows what he is doing.

tgatliff's picture

Exactly.  He is a student of the Great Depression.  Not a teacher... And we all know the kinds of mistakes students can make...  It is rather obvious that Mr. B didnt learn enough about what actually occurred during the GD...  

johnnynaps's picture

Yep, also makes him perfectly qualified to handle the toxic market that was created well AFTER the Great Depression. Just like hiring a specialist that works on antique Fords to fix your 2011 Lexus.

Smiddywesson's picture

Uncle Ben tried to restart the economy, but Uncle Alan blew the engine.  Since then, Ben has been very successful in keeping the markets afloat, kicking the can, and getting gold into the vaults of central banks. 

Not a bad job from thier point of view, but TPTB are not out of the woods yet.

RockyRacoon's picture

You're on to something here.   How can He be considered a failure?  Has He not done everything the Banks have wanted Him to do?   How can He be out of bullets when He has the golden printing press?   Bullets come in all forms and He has the ultimate weapon.   Praise be unto His Highest.

TheTmfreak's picture

This post is bullish for heroin injections.

Confused's picture

LOVE THIS GUY!  He is too funny.

Popo's picture

That was supposed to be a joke, right?

rbsx's picture

The question is not whether American industry is begging for it, but rather if it deserves it.

The only purpose QE3 will serve is akin to keeping Terry Schiavo on life support, you can keep industry alive, but keeping it alive through artificial life support, rather than industry innovating to keep competitive and sustainable worth it?

There, for all intents and purposes been 2 bail outs, yet most industries are suffering. Is it the fault of the politicians? Sure partly, but does some of the responsibility lie with the businesses that have made bad decisions? Even more so.

3 strikes and business is out man, time to let them sink like they deserve.

eureka's picture

Will there be a moment of truth? Death to the bull by the toreador of no bailouts?

Crisismode's picture

Well, you know, The Bernank has more important banking matters on his plate right now.


That would be The European Banks, of course.

Once he's finished doling out a few Trillion to the PIIG banking cartel

THEN he will get around to taking care of the American banking cartel.

Or, are they all one and the same, perhaps?

lolmao500's picture

BAC pay off has been successful.

OpenLeaks founder destroys cables WikiLeaks Bank Of America

Daniel Domscheit-Berg, founder of OpenLeaks who defected from WikiLeaks last year, has announced (later confirmed by Assange ) the destruction of the cache of 3,500 documents that had not seen the light of WikiLeaks. Thousands of documents that were entered 5GB of Bank of America had taken with him when he left the organization with a server. The reason, it has the same Domscheit, maintain safety of informants.

The data will never see the light refers to a series of cables obtained by WikiLeaks between January 2010 and August of that year. Daniel himself has been Domscheit-Berg who leaked documents the destruction of the German newspaper Spiegel .

Apparently, Berg Domscheit WikiLeaks left with a server of the organization that contained a large number of yet unpublished material.

RockyRacoon's picture

Who is the Dumbshit-Berg guy again?   He took off with the goods and then trashed them -- er what?

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

If Zimbabwe Ben doesn't come through in Jackson Asshole we might just see the Mother Of All (MOA) coordinated dumps after all.

Go long popcorn and a real time market feed.

RockyRacoon's picture

Sounds like I need to go long Charmin.

Hulk's picture

Either that, or stop using your left hand for eating...

New_Meat's picture

CD--are we reaching "Peak Popcorn?"  Especially with 1/2 of the corn crop going to Ethanol production (not that there's anything wrong with that, except when it's burned).

T'would be a shame, peak popcorn.

- Ned

Life of Illusion's picture



Bof A over 50 billion in assets.

Dodd-Frank gives Fed full control.


bbaez's picture

Can we guess who will get first crack at the estate sale?

Smiddywesson's picture

I used to think the dollar was going to go to zero, but I also came to the realization that if all the central banks and governments are coordinating kicking the can and suppressing gold prices while they buy cheap gold, they will coordinate the crash too. 

There's no way the banks of the world are going to let us pay off our mortgages with funny money.  They will pull the plug and move us to a gold related standard before they take that haircut.  If they are successfull in amassing enough gold first, they will be not only solvent but incredibly wealthy.

IQ 145's picture

Well, I'm holding on to my 1000 share block bought at $7.37; I'saying $6.50 is a double bottom; at $6.35, I'm sayin "good bye"  A mere flesh wound. Although I wish people at the bank would keep their damn mouth shut; we don't need to hear no stuff about financial problems anounced by a Bank. Don't they have any sense, or what?

Spastica Rex's picture

Grifters need to stay on script.