Bottomless Import Hail Mary Black Hole Uncovered: It Is Hong Kong

Tyler Durden's picture

The miracle that is a global economy in which everyone is looking for export growth has been discussed here at length along with the simple math that makes it nonsense. Today's 'wonderfully' positive improvement in the trade deficit data for the US - which will be extrapolated into a spike in GDP growth and why the S&P should be at 1500 by month's end - does seem a little odd given all the uncertainty. Sure enough, thanks to Sean Corrigan of Diapason Securities, we have our answer. A massive spike in Exports to - drum roll please - Hong Kong!!A 76% rise in exports to this once glorious colony. The US trade deficit fell by $1.8bn thanks to a $2.5bn rise in exports (of which $2.03bn was to Hong Kong). Has Hong Kong become the channel-stuffing center of the world? It appears so since China's exports to Hong Kong have remained extremely high.

US exports to Hong Kong jumped 76% this month, or by just over $2bn!!

While China's exports to Hong Kong continue to stay very high (NOTE - not imports - exports!!)

So is Hong Kong now the global dumping ground for any and every country's dreams of export growth? It sure seems so for now!!

Charts: Bloomberg

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slaughterer's picture

Ever heard of the hole to China?    Now its the hole to Hong Kong. 

DeadFred's picture

They discovered a buried stargate and have commence infinite trade with the goa'uld? Bullish

Ethics Gradient's picture

Another option:

You couldn't import $2bn worth of cars to Hong Kong - they just wouldn't fit. You need something small and valuable. Something that has high value per cubic inch. Truffles, maybe? Swiss, they would be from Switzerland. Oh hang on... no. I thought I had it there for a moment, but it's gone....

macfly's picture

I suspect you're correct on this one - gold, and iPhones of course.

Stuck on Zero's picture

Maybe Boeing sold Hong Kong Airways three new shiny 787s.

o2sd's picture

There are 7 million people in Hong Kong, and of those 14 million want an iPhone.

Hmmm ... iPhone made by Taiwanese company in the Peoples Republic of China and sold to Hong Kong (SAR PRC).

Apple makes about 350 per iPhone,  into 2 billion goes 5.7 million. Sounds about the right number.


Smiddywesson's picture

Oh hang on... no. I thought I had it there for a moment, but it's gone....

Rick Perry moment?  Hee hee

CPL's picture

India is in the same situation.  Where do people think that extra capacity for storage for the city-state of Hong Kong.


We'll be seeing India catching up very quickly.

Alex Kintner's picture

Yeah, it's called the China Syndrome. However, it requires a nuclear fission accident to make it happen. I guess the US economy really is in meltdown.

Grinder74's picture

The senate has made our trade agreemant legal.

John Ford Kennedy's picture

hello. i am from hongkong. hk has stuffed everything in and out both from uncle sam and communists. no worry.

Divided States of America's picture

Hong Kong must be loading up on jetfighters and aircraft carriers from the US since the ones in China dont work properly.

i-dog's picture

God knows where they're going to put them. The place is rather full already!

spanish inquisition's picture

Pretty sure that is a bare bones aircraft carrier with no planes and no cable.

shutdown's picture

China's fighter jets look really cool, though. 

Plus, who cares if the Chinese jet fighters work or not. These days jet fighters are only used to provide air support to Radical Muslim Holy Warriors. I doubt if China is planning to attack any Islamic nations.

And that is a very, very smart cost-saving move. 

qussl3's picture

It's the iphones.

Ackman is so fucked.

WineSorbet's picture

This is great news and it seems Europe was fixed overnight.  BTFD!  Seriously, I don't know how much longer I can pay attention before just wanting to pack it in and live in a jungle in South America.

sabra1's picture

channel stuffing at today's prices, brings many fortunes when hyper-inflation hits!

CPL's picture

Very true, that is if someone is left to take the order.

lolmao500's picture

I'm sure they have big warehouses, full of products that nobody sells.

o2sd's picture

Having lived in Hong Kong, I am sure you are wrong.

Schmuck Raker's picture

Well done Hong Kong! This should take some of the pressure off the Bahamas to support the world's economies.

chinaboy's picture

Like statistics on GDP, initial claims, the bilateral trade is also a mathematical nightmare. Chinese government has been disputing American numbers for decades. So exporting to Hongkong may or may not mean it literally.

jonan's picture

what exactly is "channel stuffing"?

mess nonster's picture

Channel stuffing (This is a wikipedia article) is the business practice where a company, or a sales force within a company, inflates its sales figures by forcing more products through a distribution channel than the channel is capable of selling to the world at large. Also known as "trade loading", this can be the result of a company attempting to inflate its sales figures. Alternatively, it can be a consequence of a poorly managed sales force attempting to meet short term objectives and quotas in a way that is detrimental to the company in the long term. Channel stuffing has a number of long-term consequences for the company. Firstly, distributors will often return any unsold goods to the company, incurring a carrying cost and also developing a backlog of product inventory. Wildly fluctuating demand, combined with this excess inventory, leads to costly overtimes and factory shutdowns. Even mild channel stuffing can spiral out of control as sales works to make up for prior over-selling. Discounts used to drive trade loading can greatly affect profits, and even help establish gray market channels as salesmen no longer adequately qualify their prospects. Occasionally, distribution channels such as large retailers have been known to identify the practice of channel stuffing in their suppliers, and use the phenomenon to their advantage. This is done by holding back on orders until the end of the suppliers' quota period. The supplier's sales force then panics, and sells a large amount of the product under more favorable terms than they would under ordinary circumstances. At the beginning of the next period, no new orders are placed, and, barring any action, the cycle is then repeated. This has an impact on customers, with gluts and shortages as buyers turn to competing products. Corporations have been known to engage in channel stuffing and hide such activities from their investors. In the United States, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has in some cases litigated against such corporations.

robobbob's picture

see GM, (government motors)

also see Zero Hedge archives

vote_libertarian_party's picture

According to the economic summary on Bloombergs website the unexpected drop was because of gold exports.


So China is upping US gold purchases?

Smiddywesson's picture

There was an article a few days ago which stated their July-Sept purchases exceeded 2010 purchases.  I've since seen different figures, but it's clear they are at a late stage level in their purchasing strategy.  All that's left after this level is pannicked buying.

If you look at the figures, Western central banks are around 70% backed by gold.  They are replacing foreign currencies as an asset on their balance sheets.  China is racing to catch up.  Although the official figure that they are backed only 1.2% by gold is an obvious fabrication, they are still behind and struggling to stack gold before the whole economic system seizes up.  Then we go to a gold referrenced system, they ramp the price of gold, and anybody without gold takes a big haircut.

beastie's picture

Can we get a few details on what was imported to HK specifically? and by country?

Are we talking about paper or physical products?Is it Gold bought in NY to make their surplus go away?

PS Can we get some pics of girls in bikinis as this place is getting way too serious.

eaglefalcon's picture

Has to be physical because paper doesn't go through the customer and is therefore not counted as import/export

youngman's picture

Yes I am thinking the same it gold imports from the USA....hmmmm..isn´t that where the new exchange is?

docmac324's picture

Hon Kong love you long time.

SDRII's picture

Per, Exports led by industrial supplies and materials ($1.4 bln, of which the entire gain came from nonmonetary gold) and consumer goods ($0.8 bln). Channel stuffing for sure

Wakanda's picture

WB7 is stocking up on billion$ in images?

walküre's picture

Hong Kong is a gateway to Southern China. 2 billion may be an anomaly. Let's see if the trend lasts and find out what US made products exactly are being "demanded" from there. Medical equipment is pretty pricey for example.

Trying to Understand's picture

So... what would our trade deficit be if we removed Hong Kong from the equasion?  Now thank obummer, ben, timmy and CONGRESS for allowing the books to be cooked....

azzhatter's picture

You can't read anything into China exports to Hong Kong. Most of that ends up in China. They export to Hong Kong to take advantage of a government policy referred to as "turnaround". The mfg gets an export credit to ship to Hong Kong then they re-import to China and sell domestically, been going on for years. did it myself for several years. 

boiltherich's picture

The trade deficit took a bump down from $45.6 billion last report to $43.1, the report says:  "The improvement in the trade gap was led by the nonpetroleum goods gap which shrank to $31.5 billion from $33.9 billion in August. Exports of industrial supplies jumped $1.4 billion with $1.6 billion coming from nonmonetary gold. This was likely flight to safety with demand for gold up in the month."

So we sold some gold and suddenly the economy is on the upswing?  $43.1 billion annualized is still well over half a trillion per year leaving the USA forever.  And the sale of a little gold is not the kind of "export" that creates domestic employment, or revenues to stabilize federal fiscal chaos, and in fact we might look back on the export of any gold at any price to be aking to Britain selling a large share of their gold when it was 250-300 per ounce, insane. 

williambanzai7's picture

The Apple Store opened last month and has been a mob scene ever since. Most of China's high end consumer goods purchasing occurs outside of China.

I am sure they are buying ten at a time for "gifts."

There is your answer.

jdelano's picture

Wait--what?  WTF?  This makes no sense--it can't be real.  This has got to be pure fiction.



I'd like to submit my resume for your consideration.  In all earnestness, I am thoroughly exhausted by the effort to resist and expose your machinations--I'm willing to concede at this point that it is a futile fight and acknowledge that it is rapidly eroding my sanity.  As I simultaneously find it impossible to return to the cozy in utero state of neither knowing or caring about your ministrations behind the curtain of this reality, I've resigned myself to the fact that I have no better option:  "If you can't beat em', join em.'"  Right?  I am ready to commit wholeheartedly to the implementation of your vision and to lend all of my talents to the cultivation of the new world regime.  I have several skills and attributes that I believe would be of great value to the cause--for starters, I have knowledge of and direct experience with a broad range of financial instruments, I know my way around a computer (familiar with several programming languages) and I speak fluent Italian.  In addition, I am highly athletic, socially gracious, and pretty good with a handgun.  Given that (mentally and philosophically at least) I have existed on the outer fringes of society for much of my life and view myself as idealogically disenfranchised, I believe my psychological profile is ripe for "reeducation" and that I could easily be molded into a passing-fair assassin or servile politician.  My dossier is attached, please review at your convenience.

Thanks in advance for your time, 

J.M. Delano      

tarsubil's picture

Good luck. My offer was ignored. I asked for 1000 oz of gold, book deal and teleworking privalages. I did say I was willing to negotiate. Maybe they've already reviewed my book.