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The ES is flat! This must be serious!
what this effectively means is that demand for credit at 12.5% base rate has declined markedly...the BCB must adjust their pricing to follow the supply/demand curve
and another one bites the dust....another bites the dust.....dump dump dump
This is good, right? right?
it's just another fiat currency failing
Well if there is a country who can handle it, it's brazil. The people have so little confidence in their currency and gov. They prosper despite the gov.
I love it when a plan comes together...
Well isn't this a BRIC to the head ... Move over Reginald Denny.
wheres arminio fraga when you need him??!?!?
Is this bad or good?
Bad. Brazil has been buying $ like mad. Not so much no mo. The magic levitation continues.....
Bad. Basilians do not like soy beans, only black beans, rice, samba s@x, and football!
Fucking KABOOM. That's a substantial move.
Eating popcorn, while stroking my token Canadian gold maple ounce.
Mmm, gold. Maybe I should bust out a few ounces and give them a stroke too. They have been sitting in the dark for a long time. I hope they do not feel unappreciated...
+ $1820 and green!
I carry the one ounce maple with me. When I get depressed at the state of affairs, looking at all the debt, ignorance, and laziness around me, I take out my coin. It really does make me feel better. Think Inception and the personal reality tokens.
carrying a Maple is stupid...you will scratch it up and then you'll get less from the dealer. Many dealers don't even want to deal in mapes for this reason. Anything beyond crown gold in purity is not meant to be carried; get an Eagle or Krug
There is a solution to this "problem"...
Brazil news took a chunk out of the AUD, FX markets are pricing in a possible China proplem. If Australia cuts soon, then it's on. A US/EU and China slowdown...doesn't look good at all.
Yep wait for the AUD cut next. Circulatory currency firing squad, commence!
Money market yields are somewhat ambiguous here at present. This can change overnight though.
stocks are running on air, so i would be watching money market and CDS spreads. a BRIC (Brazil) cutting rates is a hell bear signal. China could be slowing down faster than reported. Sth Korea is 100% heading into stagflation.
Central banks will freak on the Brazil cut. Aust bank will cut now. AUD 1.03 gets knocked out and you are on a winner
yes, Brazil has been so hot that this is a big move for them. I have traveled there repeatedly and could measure the economic pace by the makes of cars on the roads. Went from rarely seeing anything beyond the american brands to ML420s and X5s all over the place within the span of 6 months.
Did you get to drink cachaca? Brazillian females + Cachaca ah yeah
wtf you ask me that question for? Did I "get" to drink cachaca? The shit is everywhere. Brazil is cheap if you know where to shop. And for dois reas you can be drinking this stuff by the beach all goddamned day.
brazilian girls are yet to be surpassed...my economic collapse tour has taken me to serbia, colombia, brazil, and iceland. Each has some smokin hot chicks and in belgrade every 10th one look like a supermodel, but the brazilians have somethin you can't put your finger on.
Oh yes I can!!!! I still like Ukrainians the best though, radiation be damned.
Ukranians are definitly hot. Any of you guys interested in meeting my Ukranian friend? If you are height weignt proportionate and at least average looks you got a shot at this 27 year old hot babe. I must warn you though. She wants to get married and have kids, but it would be worth it if you know how Ukranian women tend to think. From my sample size of two I feel that I can generalize to all Ukranian women! They are loyal, will do you in any position you want at least once a day for the rest of your life. All you gotta do is not cheat on them and put them on a pedestal. It would be worth it. Wish I had known when I was younger, but I digress. If you are interested she said I could give out her email address to decent guys. She is not looking specirically for an american so you foreign boys are in luck. I will check back later and see if anyone is interested enough to send me a pic and a brief bio. Yes I feel like a matchmaker today.
I have it now: the "TopCall Dating Service." Nice. Got an 800 number yet?
PS. Sorry your only a 2? :)
animalistic heat. the potential to completely let go with complete abandon. Intensity, hedonic enjoyment without inner conflict.
There, put my finger on it
Not too many races or ethnic groups have it. My observations are not unique, but it tends to become a stronger trait in warmer areas.
He said "warmer areas" he he he he Yet, cold can be very nice ass well.......yes I said ass, he he he he
just trying to be polite to your dumb ass.
There is good Cachaca and then there is shit stuff, maybe you drank the crap.
AUD meltup up on fudgy govt stats. Ah well, it's all China after Brazil redflag.
o brasil é lindo maravilhoso!
So is this Bat Shit or Good Shit?
Boa Noite, Pirhanas!
Rubbish, the cut was neither unexpected nor shocking. Money market yields in Brazil & elsewhere have been pointing to central banks cutting their overnight rates for weeks if not months.
I'll say it again, the bond speculators will not be denied their profits in the form of rising bond prices.
Brazil is not the first and won't be the last. Turkey, with its huge inflation and massive money prining cut rates as well. This is another step made by politicians made to win the next elections and debase their currencies. Clearly we are going to have higher inflation everywhere. To be honest, the world just can't pay this debt (to itself I guess) and will simply start to inflate it more aggressively. We are seeing this everywhere:
1. BOJ doing a new n-th round of QE.
2. ECB buying PIIGS debt in size and lending to ''lightly'' solvent banks.
3. US talking about a new round of QE, twist or something equivalent. We are also hearing about a new mortgage program. I suspect that we are going to see (over time) some good size debt forgiveness in the US and this will be funded by printing money.
4. SNB printing money and using negative interest rates to weaken the currency. Latest t-bills came at -1% yield.
5. EM banks cutting rates and printing money. Actually printing money for them is nothing new as it is just an ongoing process that their Ivy League / Oxford educated central banksters know how to do very well.
6. Forgive me but I almost forgot the BOE. Some ''hawk'' was talking a day or two ago about the need for further QE. I think they are likely to do it at some point.
Don't think they can avoid it. The market, especially the FX market, is totally lost and doesn't know what to think. Look at EUR/USD, with the current European problems we should be trading at 1.10 at most. Instead we are testing 1.43-1.45 range. This is because the history of it tells you that the Fed prints faster and better than the ECB. I am growing uncertain if this is going to be the case now. Still, the ECB is dragged into money printing bitching and moaning and the Fed just looks for excuses why it is a good idea to do it. I guess this is the difference and also the Germans.
In this market few currencies are safe, hell, no currency is safe. The Chinese will keep their CNY strong to show off. SGD and CHF should survive somehow I guess but will be debased as well, most likely. Make up your mind what to do but just don't see alternatives for precious metals. I can see that some shares are cheap but the problem is that the world economy is so distorted by government intervention that you just don't know what can happen. For sure many of these ''successful'' companies would do poorly if there was no government action. The stock market in the US should've collapsed in the face of weak data - consumer confidence was horrible. Instead, we saw stronger market - further QE being priced in daily. Hell, what if the Fed disappoints and TheBernanke pulls the Bernanke put option. He is not likely to do that but I still don't see value in stocks. Precious metals can sell off if Fed disappoints but less in my opinion. Finally, gold is not going to go bankrupt but some companies may. Even if gold comes down, I have no doubt that it will go up after the Fed finally reconsiders, while the company that went down, well it will be gone. Still, wouldn't short stocks eihter but not the best to buy shares here and definitely stay away from financials.
look; central banks don't SET interest rate regimes- they follow them.
The CBs overnight rate is the base interest rate upon which all others are indexed because that's fundamentally where money ultimately is lent from. If the CB sees diminished demand for credit, aka no offers at 12.5%, the rate must go down. It's the same as a bond auction where the demand at a particular coupon dictates the pricing of the notes.
When you hit zero, you have to force money into the economy because nobody will borrow. If all the things you could do with money could only earn you 0% ROI, you wouldn't borrow at 0. This is where we and Japan effectively are already in a macroeconomic sense.
activist central banks tend to set rates rather than follow them. They floor the accelerator at inappropriate times for political reasons.
You can figure out if a central bank is being naughty sometimes by looking at yields and their spreads. Where are turkey's and brazil's yields and money market rates right now?
The rank market manipulation is the bitch of it. For anyone who's paying attention (admittedly not many, the vast majority are watching Real Housewives) all this intervention makes it impossible to invest or plan long term. Buy a house now? Invest in energy, consumer staples, pharma? And how much are dollars going to be worth in the future? You can't be certain of anything when goddamn central bankers and governments hatch a new "plan" every week, all of it market distorting.
Fundamentals? Sound money? Manageable debt-to-income? Long-term viability and solvency? Please, neither bankers nor traders give a fuck. It's all inside information and gaming the central bank and government moves.
This is an interesting development.
My beat, of course, is Peru. Their currency (the Sol) has been relentlessly going up vs. the dollar for years, even until very recently. I will be watching with great interest to see if Peru also decides to cut rates and start devaluing their currency as well.
Our company there has informed me that a strong Peruvian Sol works to the benefit of our company ("net-net"), so if their currency weakens vs. the dollar that is too bad for us. But, we'll live.
Good article, Tyler!
Pardon the one issue poster aspect of all this, but the dirty little secret of Brazil is that its ballyhooed deep water oil has not flowed yet (and might never flow in the quantities ballyhooed).
Latest report I saw is they IMPORTED oil. This is never the path to prosperity.
oh, it's going to flow. Bank on that.
However, it's not going to flow in the idiots' manner of "divide reserves by desired consumption to get lifespan" nor is it going to flow at rates commensurate with surface fields of similar size class. These HUGE fields will at most flow 500kbpd out of an 8BBbl reservoir. The flow rates from wells this deep are pathetic actually.
So what does Obama get for his $2 billion?
Currency wars in disguise. Trade wars follow?
ES just got a bumped up.
so the rally will continue
these late day sell offs continue to be bear traps
I actually think Brazil lowering rates while not putting in a bid into equities per se definitely puts a bid into the greenback. with Canada entering a recession it's time for these "all that is foreign is good" money chickens to come home to roost. there has been so much speculation in the "inflation trade" (which the Fed has absolutely encouraged rhetorically btw) the fact that we have a synchronized downturn simply is not being aired and discussed with the appropriate alacrity by the MSM. I'm not big fan of QE at all which i think has caused all this "mal-investment" in the first place--having said that if The Bernank hadn't not only plugged interest rates at zero but committed to keep them there for two years i think we would be in far deeper donkey doo than we may be on the cusp of right now. Also I do think the statement against Congress and the White House by The Berank was completely mis-placed. It's Wall Street that almost in totality has simply followed the Fed's lead and bought treasuries and otherwise engaged in totally riskless behavior. I think we'll see if there are any animal spirits left in that town or not quite soon because quite frankly if this crowd can't be a buyer of these soon to be massively distressed assets at this time then they really aren't the people they've made themselves out to be.
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