Brazil Government Preparing For Greek Default This Week, Valor Reports

Tyler Durden's picture

And 9:55 am update in which Mantega responds to Valor (and ZH) via Bloomberg:


The lying has reached pathological proportions.


So far the only strategic use of "unnamed government officials" has been to leak rumors, whose sole purpose is to test the market's short covering squeeze potential and to discover just how long the half-life of one after another ever more incredulous rumor is. And since the only thing to come out of Europe in the past month in terms of problem resolution (no really: there has not been one policy that has been enacted since the July 21 Greek bailout), this is a useful strategy. Alas, as Europe is about to find out, this works both ways, because as Brazilian financial site Valor Economic reports, none other than perpetual optimist Brazil, the same country that is supposedly according to one set of rumors preparing to bail out all of Europe, with or without the rest of the BRICs, is now preparing for a Greek default within the week. From Valor: "Something must happen. Greece is a few days [from bankruptcy]" said a high official source.

More from Valor: "The Brazilian government "stands ready" to act and, if necessary, take such measures as the crisis unfolds in the Euro Zone, the source assured." Too bad once Greece goes it is game over as UBS described so eloquently for the second time in a row last night. That said, now that the only policy is for everyone to stick their heads in the sand at the same time, we doubt anyone will pay particular attention to this news for at least a few hours, when everyone will suddenly pay attention.

Full google translated Valor article:

The government held a meeting "tense" at the Presidential Palace yesterday. Back in the United States, where they met with authorities of other countries and with business, the President Rousseff and Minister of Finance, Guido Mantega, who evaluated the diagnosis of the global financial crisis has changed. The situation is worse than expected and may require the adoption of new adjustments in economic policy. The market is starting to bet that the Central Bank (BC) may accelerate the decline in interest rates.


Dilma and Mantega pessimistic and returned with the expectation that the crisis in Greece may have an outcome this week, with unforeseen consequences on the European financial system and therefore on the global economy. The President talked with presidents of several countries and with investors and entrepreneurs in New York.


Mantega already attended the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank in Washington. He talked with the finance ministers and central bankers. During the past week, Dilma Mantega and exchanged phone calls and everything they had learned from qualified interlocutors do not rule out the formalization of a moratorium in Greece this week.


"Something must happen. Greece is a few days," said a high official source. The Brazilian government "stands ready" to act and, if necessary, take such measures as the crisis unfolds in the Euro Zone and its consequences on the European financial system, the source assured.


Until last week, the government's expectation was that there would be a worsening of the crisis out there, but without a break, such as occurred in mid-September 2008, when U.S. bank Lehman Brothers collapsed. The new round of crisis confirms the slowdown in the global economy, reflected in a further contraction of the Brazilian economy to what has already faced, but with the markets functioning normally.


It is on this background that the government decided to increase the primary surplus in public accounts for $ 10 billion (0.25% of GDP) in 2011 and commit to full compliance with target surplus also between 2012 and 2014. It was also based on this scenario that the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reduced, in late August, the basic interest rate (Selic), from 12.5% ??to 12% per year, a move that surprised the market.


Today, according to assessments collected in Washington, the reality appears more severe, which may force the government to adopt new measures. For now, not yet defined what will be done, but Brasilia was placed on alert. In the market, there is talk that the Monetary Policy Committee may reduce the Selic rate at its meeting on 19 October by 0.75 percentage point or even a point.


In the last minutes of the meeting, the Committee signaled cut of 0.5% percentage point in interest rates in October. The worsening of the international market is taking a gamble, however, a strong move by the Monetary Policy Committee. Today, the Fed chairman, Alexander Tombini, will speak to the Committee on Economic Affairs of the Senate. Her testimony is expected because it should indicate how you see the world situation and future actions of the BC signal.


Tombini returned from Washington with renewed certainty that no mistake in the diagnosis that prompted the Monetary Policy Committee to cut the Selic rate by 0.5 percentage points. Instead, the talk of the international monetary authorities and senior representatives from the world of finance, at the weekend, only increased pessimism about the future of the crisis in the eurozone and the sluggish U.S. economy.


This impression was reinforced yesterday by the decision of the President of the Central Bank of Israel, Stanley Fischer, to reduce the interest rate from 3.25% to 3% per year, despite the fact that the country's inflation to be above the official target - 3.4% in 12 months, given the target of 1% to 3%. The move surprised analysts around the world, but in the weekend meetings in Washington, Fischer, a former head of the IMF considered orthodox, have relativized the concern with high inflation at the moment.


"This shows how central bankers are concerned with what they heard in Washington. Fischer claimed that next year may occur deflation and not inflation. He made it clear in the discussions, the issue of inflation at this point is irrelevant," revealed the value of a participant in meetings in Washington.


In the Brazilian case, goes the belief that BC's inflation in 12 months will fall two percentage points between October this year and April next year, getting closer to the target of 4.5%. The picture, however, is uncertain to envision what will happen after that.

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Edward Fiatski's picture

"Austrian finance minister says worried about larger EU countries needing aid"

Suckers' rally.

CharlieSDT's picture

Hurry up and go down, already, I want to buy a vacation home out there later to take advantage of the fire sale on Greek assets (especially the exotic Greek chicks.)

eigenvalue's picture

You will be utterly disappointed when you see Greek chicks. Some of them even have moustaches.

Gandalf6900's picture

Yep and very hairy armpits

Comay Mierda's picture

cant be worse than the local walmart crowd

zorba THE GREEK's picture

Please stop talking about hairy Greek women, you are getting Zorba very excited.

Ahmeexnal's picture

Greece already defaulted.
They only need time to make the announcement.
They need the time to print&distribute their own drachmas.
When the announcement is made, all the TBTF will have covered their loses. It's the sheeple who will bear the shock.

getplaning's picture

Not true at all. Greek women are some of the most beautiful in the world. And their moustaches don't come in until they turn 50  or so.

eigenvalue's picture

Agreed. But I don't think Greece will default this week. 

tekhneek's picture

Never will 'til it does I suppose.

Normalcy bias anyone?

covert's picture

everyone bailing each other out all the time means that all fail together. therefore, you must get "outside of the equation" to get profits rolling again. opt out of the sucker game.


Dick Darlington's picture
  • Austrian finance minister says Greek haircut would cost the Austrian taxpayers Tue, 14:38 27-09-2011
  • So it's better to keep showeling more into the black hole, preferrably on leveraged basis, to avoid pain now and get massively more pain in the future. As long as it's not happening on my watch i don't care coz by that time i'll be enjoying tax payer funded fat pension in Bahamas.

    Robslob's picture



    But most people do not know this and are expecting the Halloween Rally followed by the Thanksgiving Rally and finally the Christmas Rally...

    Fish Gone Bad's picture

    Each time the markets are at the abyss, a giant rally ensues... until it doesn't.  BTFD will eventually turn into WTF???

    ISEEIT's picture

    Pass the crack!! EUR/USD heading straight to 1.40. Free money time tapping out foolishly pessimistic stops.

    Edward Fiatski's picture

    It could play into Goldman's hand again: they don't trade ranges, they pump it up with all of the suckers and sell into the rally, when it finally unexpectedly breaks down.

    All of the other peasant blogs and sites like marketwatch have been omitting all of the worsening economic data; breaking news is when Dow is up 200 pts.

    scatterbrains's picture

    and don't forget they have the secret (hft) sauce to push it where ever they want.

    dwdollar's picture

    Until enough momo idiots get burnt the rumors will fly.

    youngman's picture

    I think Brasil so much wants to be in the first tier of world leaders....they want to be the first choice for the podium TV shots....the big speeches...they have teleprompter envy

    bania's picture

    Greece bondholders about to get a haircut? or full brazilian?

    americanspirit's picture

    The reason that Brazil's opinion matters is that Brazil probably has the best set of economic minds in the world based on real experience in handling both inflation and deflation, boom and bust, over many decades. Brazilian economists live in the real world, unlike most of their brethern elsewhere, and when they speak anyone who also lives in the real world - eg has money or assets at risk - better damn well listen. The Swiss may have the rep, but Brazil has the creds.

    trav7777's picture

    huh?  Brazil is on its 3rd currency in 20 years

    Shylockracy's picture

    I wouldn't be so sure. In Brazil they say so many of Brazil's economists got their PhDs at Vanderbilt U. that not only they failed to learn proper economics, but also passed the chance to learn proper English.

    By the way, if by "best minds" you mean people like Persio Arida, Gustavo Franco, Arminio Fraga, Pedro Malan etc., you definitely have to check your criteria for geniality. These are first-hand profiteurs of Central Bank-created volatility, credit orgies, debasement of the currency, privatization, regulatory and supervision failures. Rephrase it to "best criminal minds" and I agree with you.

    Ahmeexnal's picture

    Don't forget the country was run by an marxist alcoholic up until a few months ago. And a marxist (from a high caste in Brazil) is still in power now. Brazilians are being setup for a major economic catastrophe.

    "The daughter of a Bulgarian immigrant father, Rousseff was raised in an upper middle class household in Belo Horizonte.[2] She became a socialist during her youth, and following the 1964 coup d'état joined various left-wing and Marxist urban guerrilla groups that fought against the military dictatorship. Rousseff was captured and jailed between 1970 and 1972 and reportedly tortured.[2][3]"

    Waffen's picture

    Maybe this run up in the market is actually good news.  Market crashes never come when expected right?

    The Axe's picture

    It only matters what the Germans do...period

    Larry Darrell's picture

    It must be fantastic to have a top economic post in any country at the moment.  The market is moved by headlines only, so you put positions on in your personal account, and then send out a statement to put them immediately in the money.

    The4thStooge's picture

    DAX up 4.5%. Ze Germans obviously do not believe in zer own finance minister.

    Oh regional Indian's picture

    Called it yesterday, cannot find the link. I'd asked about Brazil via santander via spain as being THE Eurobomb waiting to go off. That will rock a whole house, forget just the BRICS.


    Weird World, What do You believe?

    Tsar Pointless's picture

    Global fascism.

    Smell it?

    Gandalf6900's picture

    that was the title of my university thesis

    hico11's picture

    they outsourced the printing of the New drachma, will take a few days for the Chinese to deliver.

    this rally lets the insiders sell financials before the storm

    Oh regional Indian's picture

    If that were true, the counter feat is staggering.


    Ahmeexnal's picture

    Wouldn't be worth the hassle ORI.
    High quality chinese fake drachma banknotes would probably cost more to manufacture than the value of the real ones.

    UGrev's picture

    All this shit is like someone poking a dead animal with a stick to make sure it's dead. 

    Note to world.. "Yes, it's dead".. 

    Peter K's picture

    Words. Got to get them right. Leisman got them right yesterday, and look at the results. And if a total tool like him gets the words right, what does that say about those Europeans:)

    Peter K's picture

    One more thing. "Messaging" is the word. Loose lips sink ships, and virtual currencies:)

    El Gordo's picture

    Alfred E. Neuman reports on the Greek debacle as follows:  "What, me worry?"

    BurningFuld's picture

    My take is Greece is done like dinner. The Germans are just making noise and pretending like they somewhat care. They are going to let Greece go. They have stepped back and are ready to start catching the fall out.

    Waffen's picture

    Well i am glad he cleared that up [IMG]Rollereyes[/IMG]

    mendigo's picture

    it is hard to accept that the ECB et al are so incapable of action

    possibly they are trying to buy time while they make preparations for some kind of framework for "orderly" default of greece (and possibly others in the future). given enough time there is no limit to how they can rig the system.

    so likely greece will leave the euro? is already priced in? 

    there will be casualties - purely business as usual

    SheepDog-One's picture

    I remember the days when Ireland was the 'huge deal' everything hinged upon what was happening hour to hour...turns out not so much and its swept right under the rug just like Greece will be.

    Calmyourself's picture

    Exactly, this will end when they are ready for it to end.  Many here have an incorrect view of how controlled this all is and pin their hopes on a reset caused by market forces only there is no market.

    mendigo's picture

    more like a festering boil thats going to spew

    they can test thier default management on greece then maybe ireland will be next

    they will only fail if they get caught - with thier pants down

    it is the new system of bubble economics

    Ned Zeppelin's picture

    Quiet day as the equities markets recover lost ground.  Seems the only certainty is volatility.  Still say this plan for Europe is hogwash and a head fake, but who knows? Timmah and the gang are ready to print.