This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Breaking Point: The End Of The Cheap Energy Economy
Americans consume 20 million barrels of oil per day and FutureMoneyTrends asks what will happen when the price of gas reaches $4, $5, or $6 per gallon. Between exponentially rising fuel prices and stagnant wage growth for those employed, American consumers were broken in the lead up to the start of the depression recession in 2008. The situation is massively worse now than at the bottom in March 2009 (from $2.00/gallon to $3.92 currently) and that is where they take up the narrative of where we go next as the cost to drive has more than doubled in the space of three years and is on an unsustainable path; either as a nation of consumers facing de minimus wage growth, or the lack of firms' ability to pass this cost on to consumers leading to more unemployment. As the unreality of the S&P 500 passing back above 1400, a reflection back on the real economy is sobering to say the least.
»
- 13597 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
It's already priced in.
All is well as Rush Limbaugh is buying a new car that gets 8 mpg.
As there is no alternative, it will be paid.
S&P 500 generates 40% of its income outside the US, where fuel costs are already considerably higher!
how were goods shipped prior to trucks?
trains.
What does America has plenty of?
Coals
trains run on coal, but also need tracks to run on.
that's why warren buffett bought the railroad tracks a virtual monopoly of land transport alternative.
Coal? I suppose...indirectly. Locomotives now run off diesel, yes?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZ-4gnNz0vc&feature=g-all-f
When Huxley was alive, trains probably did run on coal. Rip Van Winkle springs to mind here.
Everything is proceeding exactly as planned.
Buckle up and enjoy the ride.
Coal generates electrickery ... electrickery rail is in use all over the world ... pitty about the power grid.
Coal to diesel conversion is a well-known process though.
Classic fail!
Railroad steam is dead, locomotives long since broken into scrap or displayed at a trackside museum.
Puff puff, toot toot has a different meaning nowadays.
Current locomotive engines run on diesel and are inconvertible to coal, unless a way can be found (savior technology fallacy) to burn slurry, etc.
Where do you work within the coal lobby?
There's always coal liquefaction ...
trains run on coal
??????????????????????????
The true price of oil is masked by subsidies.
We are all paying via the back door
It would be naive to think that the true price we pay is less than Europe.
It'a a Global Market
Europe taxes the hell out of oil and gasoline. It's not that we in the US are paying through the back door, it's that they're paying through the front door. It's not a global market, it's a global mark-up.
But hey, for that, they get cradle-to-grave security, right? Right??!! Uh-oh....
Why do you give a crap what Rush Limbaugh does? Your comment makes no sense. Does policy form around what Al Gore drives? Err wait nevermind.
I'm pretty sure he was just being sarcastic.
You have to love the NIA and futuremoneytrends.com, "The world is ending so buy my penny stocks!"
That is the whole problem with people in this world.....they are too worried about what the people above them have....instead of worrying about what they have and what they can do to move into this next bracket....
Why do you give a crap what Rush Limbaugh does? Your comment makes no sense. Does policy form around what Al Gore drives? Err wait nevermind.
"Does policy form around what Al Gore drives?" I don't know, but I'll bet Rush, Al and all of their acquaintances drive the same kinds of vehicles.
Surely Al Gore drives a Chevy Volt - doesn't he?
Why?... Did you see him running down the street with his clothes on fire?
Al Gore doesn't drive cars.
He drives people.......nuts.
I doubt they do the driving.
they drive me everywhere - to the poorhouse, over the edge, nuts...
He sucks my love PUMP
That would get 12 mpg if someone of normal body weight was driving it.
and how much does an ego weigh?
He'd fit about as well as Wilt the Stilt Engesser did into his ride in 'Gator'...
http://www.google.com/imgres?q=William+Engesser+%2B+gator&start=123&um=1&hl=en&sa=N&qscrl=1&nord=1&rlz=1T4TSNP_enUS476US476&biw=1226&bih=866&tbm=isch&tbnid=wSeM9IVcEkfbyM:&imgrefurl=http://www.p2pnet.pl/index.php%3F5%3D25%261%3D.6%263%3D1&docid=H7eRqBb_fNHlMM&imgurl=http://28.imagebam.com/download/aL-CsiCvNYYTpqh9kHri0Q/13122/131213881/g4.png&w=1035&h=432&ei=3habT_HXLemy6QGMm52FDw&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=479&vpy=448&dur=2943&hovh=145&hovw=348&tx=192&ty=82&sig=111423607573650554322&page=5&tbnh=87&tbnw=209&ndsp=29&ved=1t:429,r:2,s:123,i:89
The data center black outs won't be or the idle hands waiting for all that off shored work in oil poor nations.
The combination of both is enough to choke the life any hope of DR either. Work places like India have been running nearly 50% of their load on portable power generators.
Phillipines rotating blackouts in 8 hour cycles. Persist is the wrong word in the title, it should say new normal.
http://www.tempo.com.ph/2012/8-hour-rotating-blackout-persists/#.T5kfvMz...
Loadshedding in India, which leads to higher B&E's, etc...India is going to have trouble this summer, i don't think it will take much either.
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-04-26/gurgaon/31409220_...
Venezuela is just starting a rationing scheme.
http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v6/newsworld.php?id=661945
The same thing all over the world, nothing to be done about it either.
cooking numbers of U.S GDP will be harder and harder using WTI oil for frying...
Go long Schwinn. Slightly longer in the west.
kinda reminds me of the old guiness book of world records photo of the two fattest twins in the world shown riding bikes together from behind.
go long double wide pilot trucks for all the fat bicyclists about to take over the roads.
BOOM!
IT's the late '70's all over again!
... but without the disco
And we'll all get to party like it's 1979 ... as if that didn't suck enough for those of us who went through it the first time.
barliman
This party is going to last a little longer.
In the late 1970's, there was concern over the dollar ending. Today, it is actually ending.
...and the Alaska pipeline is slowing to a trickle.
One word ... Carter
If you were there for the Carter years, 18% interest rates, Desert Fuck One and all the rest, it was easy to believe the end was nigh
Sidenote: I know a fellow who SO believed the end was nigh, he bought all the gold he could right at peak price. I wonder if he's held it all this time?
barliman
Exactly, the peak price was when rates were being jacked way up, which exposed all of the malinvestments and crippled the economy. Today, rates are going to have to be raised much higher in order to save the dollar because it's been destroyed so much more...and then we'll really see gold spike.
Honestly, though, I don't believe the dollar can be saved. Raising rates will destroy or credit addicted economy that is hooked beyond all belief on borrowing on the cheap. It's not gold to be a spike in gold, it's goign to be a plateau with a wall that just goes up and up and up, well over $10,000 in today's purchasing power. That kind of move into PMs is going to send the silver to gold ration to at least 10 to 1, meansing silver hits at the very min. $1,000.
Not just the 70's, 80's as well.
Couldn't give away a house with mortgage rates at 14%. It's enough to further destroy the flimsy idea there are green shoots in the housing industry.
Oh yeah, housing is going to get destroyed when rates rise. I'm thinking another 70% drop in real terms from here.
WOW !!
You're even more pessimistic than I am.
barliman
Disco hit it's peak in 1977-78. After that is was fading fast.
It didn't suck as much as some of the music I hear these days. And it was perfect for watching the submarine races with my girlfriend at Ottawa Lake in the winter.
Agreed
Between Bieber and Madonna - musical suckdom is peaking again.
barliman
Dubstep and everything autotune are worse.
Agreed on the autotune but not the dubstep.
Not ALL music nowadays sucks... (some still know how to kick it)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWLThF1T0oo&feature=related
When I see videos like that I am not focused on the music ...
barliman
Right on Barliman - and don't you just wonder how many hundreds of millions of handguns have been added to the national private arsenal since 1979 - and how many concealed carry permits? Those gas lines are gonna light up. Word of advice to those not old enough to remember 1979 - don't cut in line.
Many guns with people bitterly clinging to them...
However ...
Gas lines - sooo late '70's
Gas bladders - trending up in 2012
barliman
"its those damn oil speculators! Get 'em Obama!"
~Sheeple
Higher energy prices are giving rise to a new growth industry. Online weddings. I shit you not
http://thechive.com/2012/04/27/an-internet-marraige-is-as-amusing-as-adv...
The online weddings will be shut down by CISPA.
Fed purchased 61% of treasury issues in 2011.
Thats a pretty concentrated position.
Should'nt Obummer label the FED, speculators?
my point exactly
No, no, the FED is a 'bundler'. That keeps them out of Federal prison. Duh.
Can you please explain why oil went to ~$150/b when we were already 6 months into the worst recession since the Great Depression and oil inventories where, generally, increasing? Why the massive spike out of nowhere when the fundamentals suggested otherwise?
Can you also explain why a 25X influx of speculative money into the commodity complex from 2003 to 2007 would not affect oil prices? Total speculative money in the early part of this past decade was ~$13B. By 2007, it was over $300B. Explain why this has no affect, please.
- The Sheeple
Everyone wants to concentrate on the brief oil outlier abberation spike in 2008.
Your 38th post of the day is always your best one.
MF
you're counting?
the sheeple think its boogeymen speculators but its really just the bernank and his lemonparty cohorts moving the market. then obummer distracts the sheeple by creating these boogeymen while the real criminals profit
*LOL*
Is that really your explanation?? That's hilarious! Obama wasn't even in office yet.
*LOL*
Libertarians are hilarious! I love this site!
MF
lewinksy is to clinton as fischer is to obummer
how are those white house lemon parties with you, obummer, and rahm emanuel? you guys prob had a nice romp while michelle was in spain spending my money
Anytime a libertarian is forced to defend their utterly whacked out - yet hilarious - ideologies, they always turn the conversation straight into the ditch.
MF.
you're not even funny. its the weak trolls like you that make wish for a post from MDB
You did a rather poor job diverting attention away from your inability to defend your position.
MF
.
We've had the same president for the past thirty years, if not longer. The only thing that changes is the designated scapegoat propped up at speeches and press conferences.
Sorry, but if that's your defense of the oil price spike, then you're an idiot, too.
MF
oil price up due to hoarding. not in the strict sense, but in the i need to make sure I get x oil delivered by such and such date sense. And speculators taking advantage of the fact. And short covering.
Don't be a pussy. If you want a fight with a libertarian, find me on this site in the future. I don't have any doubt that your views can be ground under the boot of rational argument. Yes. And I'm not even a libertarian, again, in the strict sense.
Ok... so you're saying it was due to "speculators taking advantage of the fact?"
Seems to me that you're blaming speculators who are (1) long and taking advantage of end-users who need the product, and (2) speculators covering short positions providing ever more bids.
So.... can we just agree that I was right? We haven't even began to talk about the influx of ~$300B+ in speculative money....
*LOL*
MF
This whole argument is retarded. 2008's price spike was largely based on fundamentals. Sure, there was some speculation, but it's not like that alone made it possible. Don't believe me? Go check the global spare capacity data for then. Pretty damn thin. Well that's funny, the same thing happened in 2004-2006. What happened then? Oh yeah... oil prices tripled. Capacity wore thin earlier this year again too. Guess what? Prices went back up. The Iran situation didn't help, but it would still be high without it.
The speculator argument doesn't hold a lot of water because there were large short positions opening up on oil starting in March and April of 2008. Consumption also continued to climb in the face of that rising price right up until about June.
I think you make some good points but your questions hint at a truly diminutive understanding of oil, speculation, and modern "markets." There is no isolate or single factor which precipitates price movements. So, what the fuck are you asking? In fact, the oil "market" isn't really a conventional free market or at least one unencumbered by tremendous inefficiencies. Oil companies, OPEC, large energy traders with jets/escorts, political insanity in the Middle East, etc. all contribute to the wacky price movements to which you refer. Did you know that sovereign nations like Kuwait, Saudi, et al have virtually government sponsored trading desks (I think they operate as diplomats)......do you think there could be any collusion betweeen any of the aforementioned forces??? Any time there is big money disseminated on a global scale (oil is big fucking dollars) there is going to be some serious fuckery. Who is going to investigate an OPEC ministers cousin making bets? The SEC hehehehehehehehe. Speculators is another term for insiders. Don't kid youself. Do you know any energy traders who have high IQs, program neural networks, high chess ratings, gifted with instruments?? No because they are fucking cowboys. The latin roots of "speculation" imply a degree of observation, which has been lost in favor charlatan conglomerates and their pals in finance. Money goes where it can grow and that fact that there have been huge influxes of capital into oil show case and point the money is going somewhere people feel relatively certain they know what the fuck is gonna happen. Would you throw 300 billion at something without knowing exactly what the fuck is going on? Me neither.
"..and oil inventories where, generally, increasing?"
if that's your definition of the world's oil "inventories" going forward, then you sir have earned yourself a similar label
Max Fischer, gaucherie perfectionist, said:
If you believe that a comment devoid of the words "oil" and "price" is any sort of analysis or explanation of the price of oil, you may want to reduce the amount of time you spend huffing gasoline, said activity no doubt having a small but non-negligible effect on the spot prices of WTI and Brent.
No, some belong, some don't. They're the ones that try not to get JFK'd. Did you see Michelle today? She looked scared shitless.
Meanwhile your last post of the day is always your best one.
Two words
SEEK HELP.
You are a creepy little stalker, MF.
barliman
Influx of speculative money...
There is only one thing known to handle speculation: mass production.
It does not get rid of speculation, it dilutes it by diluting the inflow of speculative money.
You add money, you keep adding money but the other guy manages to provide more and more material inputs to thwart your speculative attempts.
Up to the point the other guy can no longer follow and you keep injecting money for a stagnant amount of material inputs.
It is somehow funny that US citizens disconnect speculation and abundance.
I must say, Charlie, I think I may actually understand what you are driving at here. China heroically produces goods to absorb USDs, more and more and more dollars, more and more goods. BUT--- how much more OIL can be produced? That's where it breaks down. A tango on a ledge, and there's no net.
Heroically is the term because like any thing else, the chinese production is going to be constrainted by the inflow of inputs that can not match the inflow of 'speculative' money.
Last ditch heroes...
I was reading this and was thinking I would be disappointed with no mention of US Citizenism, but then the whole post redeemed itself right at the end.
I thought speculative traders trade both long and short. Given that, why would more money trading drive price up rather than down?
Where you under the impression that the number of speculators on the long and short end have to match?
MF
Are you purposely ignoring the collapse in price from July 08 to March 09, just before Benocide unleashed QE1? I imagine a few longs got hurt during this period.
People forget so conveniently sometimes.
The odd issue for me is that gasoline consumption is at historic lows, no one is driving, no one is buying gas
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=A103600001&f=M
I guess higher prices aren't being driven by higher demand. I wonder what it could be?
It's not like the Fed just willed trillions of more dollars into existence.
hmmm...I would like to think that incessant money-printing, threats of more QE, and the absolute determination to devalue the currency in which oil is based might have something to do with it. But wat I's know? i'm jus a stoopid farm boy from the midwest
The video mentioned increasing demand from India and China.
I thought the video was good for putting the collapsing dollar as cause #1 of the rise in oil prices.
This should generally be extended to collapsing fiat, to include the other countries of the world, many of which have experienced price rises far higher than the States.
It costs $10,000.00 for one of a very few spots in a lottery for a license plate in PeeKing. China can't have too many cars because there are not near enough roads. They are Way behind in infrastructure, way behind.
China's oil imports are still growing at a 10%+ rate. There was an article on BB recently, that they are building storage capacity like crazy. It will more than double within a year, but their storage capacity is still small compared to that of the US.
Oil is not only a consumer product, but a strategic weapon. There is no way around fuel reserves for a military superpower which China is going to become. In the end a superpower must prove that it could move all their ships, planes, trucks, tanks aso. for a longer period without new supply - even if they never do it, otherwise the military machinery would be useless.
we are 300 million in a 7 billion person market quickly becoming irrelevant. The data on US use (or any first world use) is nice but the rest of the world is quickly ramping up consumption including the producing countries themselves. The petro /fiat dollar collapse is a factor but so is the most important, fundamental element of our world credit economy - the fiction that ever expanding growth can continue with cheap energy extracted at the same energy cost. Because we sit at the apex of that game, as the modern empire at this historical energy moment, we have the farthest and possibly the fastest to fall. Forget the price in any currency, including gold - it's the real energy cost in the real world that matters - and that is growing rapidly.
Don't know about that, however, your moniker indicates that you are going to be very busy soon.
Oil refiners are a monopoly, we have to have gas. If we drive less, do they, lower the price in order to clear out the inventory?
HELL no, they raise the price because they are a for profit shareholder driven entity. If they buy crude at price "X" then in the couple of months that go by while it's made into gas and they expect to sell that gas to the millions of consumers at price "Y" yet the consumers aren't buying the product so how do you dump the gasoline that was just refined. The EPA has made sure you can't put it anywhere else, your current plant site only has "Z" storage tanks, and they are full. So, you stop refining oil to gas, jack up the price to make up for the lack of sales and because your company is a monopoly company you charge whatever you want, until the economy gets better and folks go out more.
Which ain't going to happen anytime soon.
100% correct. Our local natural gas company wanted to raise rates 20% a few years ago. I did some research before the public meeting. The bastards have profit baked into the rate formulas. Profit is fixed in the formulas and everything else (well rates) is variable. You can all turn the thermostats down, replace the windows, etc but if you are still plugged into the pipeline you are going to be paying the same X dollars you paid previously.
Wrong. Oil refiners are not a monopoly. Just because you think you need to have gas, does not make them a monopoly.
You don't like the prices? Stop driving. Can't stop driving? Pay the price.
Welcome to the market. It's a hard place sometimes, but it works.
It works? Only when it isn't completely broken, and run by criminals.
New here? Welcome to Fight Club.
@ Bicycle Repairman
Good doc here called Gashole, if you haven't seen it already.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sn9iSrPaSu4
From past comments I can tell you know the causes...FYI interesting background in the film on suppressed gasoline combustion technology that can confirm anyone's worst suspicions....
No it isn't.
http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_04_05.html
Below 2007 numbers
If you add up all components of gasoline unit usage, you'll notice levels are pretty close to 2007.
You should notice a pretty material (30 million) gallon reclass between short & long wheel base that accounts for this illusory drop off.
What years are you comparing? I'm looking at 2007 vs 2010 (chart ends there)
I see nearly 2 billion gallons less jet fuel (first one, not sure why two rows labels jet fuel), 50 million less airplane gas and jet fuel, 3 billion gallons less light vehicle short wheel base, 800 million less gallons long wheel base, 700 million less for trucks, 1 billion less for combination trucks. The only area that really increased is the "Transit" catagory.
Nearly 8 billion less gallons of fuel overall comparing 2007 to 2010.
EDIT: refering to your BTS link.
8.188 billion / 197.851 billion (total) = 4.1% total decline from peak in consumer markets. I'm sure that the US government & military more than made up for that drop off.
Don't forget to include http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=KD0VRSNUS1&f=A and http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=KD0VCSNUS1&f=A in your analysis.
http://static.ddmcdn.com/gif/transrapid.jpg
Since wages are stagnant and inflation is increasing due to FED printing, you could more correctly say the end of cheap anything economy.
Or even more correctly you could say FED printing and inflation is killing the world economy.
Ah, indeed.
That is the end of the boons of mass production or abundance.
For some reason, US citizens aim at depletion of resources.
Unlike China, of course.
Hi Kettle, I'm Pot, and you're black.
What do it mean unlike China?
Does it refer to a land mass? To the people living on it? Or what?
US citizenism is spreading in China.
With it comes the aim to deplete resources.
What do you mean when you say "US Citizenism"?
Do you mean Consumerism?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumerism
Matt asked:
Good luck getting an answer from him on that. His definition seems to change daily, if not hourly.
It appears to be an oblique term which encompasses all that he condemns as being responsible for the world's problems.
Even though the term is "US citizenism", it has nothing to do specifically with US citizens, except when it does, it is not limited to the United States, except when it is, and it is temporally confined to the time period since 1776, except when it's not. "US citizenism" is always malevolent, except when it is benign or, on rare occasions, benevolent.
It is a concept which is both easily understood and incomprehensible. It is the combined oxymora of all humanity and the confused ramblings of an obsessive Chinese dishwasher.
Actually, the answer to Matt's question is even simpler than that:
US Citizensm is as Chinese Citizenism does.
Peak Fiat.
http://workwithdrmarcus.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/benefits_working_at_home.png
You don't think you can drive for free forever do you?
tssss
If everyone worked at home, how could managers justify their existence?
Surprise inspections?
Sorry, Hu Flung Pu, this is not communist China --- the authorities (and all managers in a communist regime are by definition authorities) cannot just capriciously barge into people's homes. At least, not yet ---- but they are working on it, following the finest tradition of 2500 years of Chinese authoritarianism and totalitarianism.
well 'they' already know you're on ZH now
in working time
but they're firing the dumbshits surfing facebook first.
More doom and gloom. Uh, wait a sec.
WTI oil is well below its all time high back in 2008. Chart below.
http://bullandbearmash.com/index/oil/weekly/
If the economy is stalled, consumption isn't likely to increase. Is oil as scarce as the media make it out to be? Or is it more agendas and politics playing itself out?
Oil and political agendas? No way. This is and always has been a free market!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thank you! That's what I've been trying to say! And lest you think that the government fakes all data and wages a campaign of disinformation to deceive you, well then...
QUICK, OVER THERE: KIM KARDASHIAN'S BUTT!!!! AMERICAN IDOL IS ON!!!!!!!!
Are you serious? Really? A free market?????????????????????
Nissan Leaf.
See the Other Guys re: Prius.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoEUIWh88tk
People chose to buy huge SUVs while fuel prices have steadily increased over the years.
If people were focused on fuel economy, there would be alot more options. Another one being a Skoda Fabia at nearly 100 MPG highway, for about half the price of the Nissan Leaf. Not currently available in North America as far as I can see.
I am not sure this is where to ask this, but it seems the entire gain the S&P today is due to the AMZN ramp. Does anyone know the weightings??
And the day before it was due to Apple, and the day before that something else, probably something better than expected. What else is new? Stocks going up doing no one any real good while what you need to buy also shoots up.
The algos are working through the alphabet.
Gas goes up another solid $1 from here and it all grinds to a halt.
Which is why it won't.
And also why theyre stuck on QE, reduced to only jawboning about it.
Bull.
The fed can short forward all the futures contracts in oil and buy them back with printed money, or sell OTM contract calls with printed money. With deep enough pockets they can force liquidation by contract holder, thus continually grinding the oil price down.
They do need speculators to do this. They need turkeys to roast for the feast.
Blythe's next job?
You're free to believe in unicorns too. We will lose our petro dollar status, and then we will be paying what the rest of the West pays. That's without even considering the peak production and reserve arguments too.
The gas prices are too damn high.
Oh please! There's more than enough energy!
Except it's radioactive and in our food and water. Not to mention what I'm breathing right now. About a few bequerels a day total, at this point.
SWITCH TO NATURAL GAS!!!!!!!!!!! Talk about cheap energy. Jesus. How much more fucking blatant and in your face does it have to be???
PS - Here's a map of US clean natural gas filling stations. They're spreading.
http://www.cngprices.com/station_map.php
Yeah, my nearest is 180 miles r/t.
Plus $6k conversion.
EPA has all the potential stations fucked up in red tape.
Fleet conversion is no joke. It takes more than just filling stations.
If we could somehow collect and utilize all the hot air and gasses spewing forth from Wash DC and Wall St, we'd all be living on free energy easily.
That actually worked on an episode of Rocky and Bullwinkle. They were on a jet airplane which had run out of fuel, and the situation looked hopeless.
However, upon finding a copy of the Congressional Record, Rocky had a brilliant idea. He reasoned that jet propulsion is based on hot air, and that Congress was one of the world's biggest sources of hot air. Placing one end of a hose into the airplane's fuel system, he had Bullwinkle begin reading from the Congressional Record into the open end of the hose.
Needless to say, this was more than sufficient to propel the plane.
20 mb/d only if you round up:
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WRPUPUS2&f=W
I sit back and wonder, is this the article that will prove to have been most prescient in the ZH play-by-play that (in historical perspective) chronicled the end?
or, maybe, just the top in gas prices?
Drill, Baby, drill! (Or, Frack, Baby, Frack!)
Wonder no more, Kirk. Crude prices will subside later this summer, as will gasoline. They will bounce around this range for several years, hitting a few new highs, and each time, it will look like the end of the world. Then, the sun will come up in the morning, and 7 billion people will continue using petroleum products, and adjust to increasing prices.
In the next decade, great strides will be made in conversion of solar energy. Today's gloomers will be seen as unimaginative social misfits.
" Then, the sun will come up in the morning, and 2 billion people will continue using petroleum products, and adjust to increasing prices."
Adjusted it for you.
Keep in mind that solar energy is electricity, not a liquid fuel. First, you would need a quarter of a billion lithium ion batteries or hydrogen cells, and new engines, for all the cars. That would be great if the world wasn't already broke and running out of rare earths. Let's ignore the fact that there are no planes or shipping freightors that can run on either of those.
Learn the difference between physics and engineering.
You can advance technology and solve engineering problems.
Physics is forever. You get 1 kilowatt per square meter solar radiation on an average day at an average latitude. A square meter is 9ish square feet. Cars are only a few square meters in surface area.
2 kilowatts will barely move your car, let alone at 60 mph, or 50 or 30.
It takes 750 watts to equal 1 horsepower. Your car engine is about 90 horsepower. Hell, it takes 20 horsepower to move your riding lawn tractor 5 miles/hour.
It doesn't work because it can't work. It's not an engineering problem. It's a physics problem.
BAZINGA!
You mean it can't work with 2 ton SUVs. If you reduce the weight 90 percent you can reduce the amount of energy needed by quite a bit too. Lower speeds and less distance traveled may also be a part of the future; there once was a time when you could move several people and goods with just a couple horsepower.
No, pal. 1 horsepower as a physics definition does not correlate to the power available from 1 horse.
Not the same thing. Just a badly named measurement unit.
Matt said:
I think that's pretty much a foregone conclusion because automobiles generally won't be a part of the future. Cars need both fuel and roads. Roads, except in places where the temperature never goes below freezing, require continual maintenance to keep them from crumbling.
Paved roads are currently made of asphalt or concrete. You need oil to make asphalt and you need a metric assload of energy to make concrete. Most roads will fall into disrepair and become unusable except at very low speeds. Older brick roads which were subsequently overlaid with asphalt will fare better when the crumbling asphalt is eventually removed (most likely by crews with picks and shovels). The interstate highways will become monuments to short term thinking.
The only practical long distance transportation will be by rivers, canals, and railroads.
I think you mean with just a couple of horses, the equine variety.