This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Brent In Euros At All Time High
Yesterday we pointed out that the number of companies in Europe losing money jumped for the first time in 2 years, doubling from 5% to 10% (even as the matched metric for US peers continues to improve). Unfortunately, we can now say with absolutely certainty that this number will shortly soar courtesy of surging input costs which eat even further into what little is left of corporate profits, not to mention the demand destruction which comes from having to pay a price at the pump which would lead the average American to get a stroke on the spot. The culprit - Brent, whose price in euros has now risen to a new all time high, surpassing the peaks seen in 2008. In fact, EUR brent is now up 293% from its 2008 lows, putting the returns of the S&P and even gold to shame! And all along the market keeps on happily chugging higher completely oblivious of the tens of billions in corporate profits that new are eaten away courtesy of this latest and greatest side effect of massive central bank liquidity tsunamization. But hey - there's always Apple's latest gizmo which somehow is never quite "priced in" by the market.
»
- 8949 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Git yer DJ 14k hats!!! Git 'em here!!
I'm peaking, I'm peaking!
Perhaps not transitory this time? lol
I hope it hits 200.
well, I guess if it hits 200 at least the central banks will have some explaining to do ...but I'm sure their explaination will be "we need to reign in those evil speculators ... oh, never mind ...
bbbut...bbbbut...IONICAL LIQUIDSEZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11
Did you see the exchange a while back between Cliff and I where I took him to school on Ionic liquids???
Nice total mischaracterization of our discussion.
We discussed the price requirements for ionic liquids to be a feasable technology for restarting dead wells. That didn't mention the fact that a closed reactor could extract bitumen from tar sands without any effective loss of ionic liquid.
Stop being so butthurt. I'm sorry the world isn't going to end like you want it to.
Never give up do you?
I'd love to stay and chat but I have to catch the 1:30 Bale Worship ritual at the local cult house...
And no, it was about bitumen-sand separation...
PS There is a reason why the wells are dead....
Why should I give up? Do people normally just let you lie about them?
Yes, the reason the wells are dead is because the oil won't flow on its own any more. Ionic liquids are a terrific solvent, and can be used to revive wells, IF they can be produced in bulk cheaply AND if they can be recovered in sufficient quantities (which they should, since they flaot on water).
Sorry you have normalcy bias. Enjoy your meeting. I hope you aren't picked to be the sacrifice of the week. Your IQ is above 140, right? I think that is the lower limit set by your high priest.
Fuck TM, why don't you google equation of state for a petroleum reservoir to find out exactly what the fuck is going on when a well dies...
It basically has to do with the fraction of water and the fraction of oil and the how they flow. Every reservoir is different, those similar geology will lead to a similar shape...
I will give you one final hint, google "Fractional Flow Equation Oil"
---
Since you are curious, when I was ~10, the test said it was ~160... might have had to something to do with me starting University when I was 15....
Oh my, you have a high IQ, everything you say must be true!
FYI, when I was ten, the test said I had an IQ higher than 160 too.
Your normalcy bias is astounding, by the way.
And your ability to spout absolute bat shit moronic opinions and "facts" about energy and oil is unparalleled here at ZH....
I will grant that you have a shamelessly grandiose imagination that allows you to come up with gems like "Ionic liquids being injected into dead oil wells" without having a clue what actually occurs in a depleted oil reservoir...
Most of the morons here would be embarassed to say stuff like that....but not you, I must tip my cap...
You have been intellectually spanked by every single person that you have crossed swords with on the subject of energy...
Here is a cursory list: Trav, CiO, LoP, FM etc... etc...
Now run along and see if there are any PM trolls that you may have missed...
I guess you got promoted to second in command at the Circle, eh?
My "facts", like the fact that oil priced in gold is headed exactly nowhere, proving in a single step that all this "Peak oil" crap is premature AT BEST? Or "facts" like "ionic liquids separate bitumen from sand with little energy input"? Or "facts" like ionic liquids, when injected into wells, make your models of oil and water interaction obsolete, or at best incomplete?
Honestly, you have really turned up the pointless aggression here. Did Trav bite you during your initiation ceremony or something?
You guys need to go back to the Oil Drum and shut up. Gold isn't buying your bullshit.
I'm bookmarking this thread.... My 14 year-old asks me what are the idiots babbling about on the blogs...
I'll send him this link...
You have outdone yourself....
Yes, the best way to walk away from an argument while being wrong is to simply dismiss the other person's argument as being "stupid".
Go ahead, show your 14 year old how pathetic a debater you are.
It is ALL speculators. Didn't you hear pelosi?
The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS).. posted £2B loss, , 4th successive year of losses,
... £1B bonuses paid out in 2011.. oh, and the stock is up 5% today.
If this does not scream “Flee!"” nothing does.
http://www.reuters.com/video/2012/02/23/market-pulse-europes-banks-bleed-red-ink?videoId=230647388&videoChannel=5
Flea, like the Black Plague.
OT slightly, just can't resist, do some recent reading. Rather a lot of evidence that Black Plague was not from rats and fleas, or even from the bacteria Y. Pestis. Recent stuff. Appears to have been a virus.
The spread through England in 1348, the big year of the beginning, was faster than rats (or men) could travel. Interesting stuff. The whole rats and flea theory is only about 120 years old. Nobody really ever proved it.
cites? Bc I had thought they had empirical evidence that Y.P. caused bubonic plague.
edit: on some research (gee, how hard is this to do), I see what you are talking about. Suggesting a variant of ebola based on the anecdotes. Perhaps the bacteria had a virus lol (yes this does happen)
Woohoo!!! LESS TRAFFIC!!!
As long as I can run my chainsaw, log splitter, tractor and tiller. Let the SHTF.
IHope Hit 200 Years ago.
If this is speculator driven - mass think move - well I'm late to the party. I'm here to peak too!
It's a don't-think-about-anything-too-hard-just-buy type of market.
That's some recovery we've got going here!
<sarc>
How can we be sure this is not a bubble?
Nancy says it's a bubble.
Yes, the cental banks' actions are having a big affect on crude pricing.
But what is really being priced in right now is the escalating drum beating of nuclear exchanges between Isreal and Iran.
A meme that a lot of people REALLY want to propagate, except for the crushing reality.
Quantitative ease wasn't in the lexicon in summer 2008 when oil did its first super ramp. Nor was there any war drum beating.
No one wants this to be supply and demand driven, but it's now happening over and over again. Oil was $18 in 2000. It didn't move $20 to $147 in 2008. It was moving in 2005, and 2006, and 2007. There was no quantitative ease then.
But older fields were dying then. Faster than new fields could be frantically drilled.
We've been pumping this stuff in big numbers for 100 years. Just how long did we think we could do that?
so, when it fell from $147 down to below $40 in a matter of weeks, was that supply and demand driven too?
don't get me wrong, I'm a peak oil believer. Huber's "the bottomless well" hooked me years ago. but I do not believe that current price actions - or the run up in 2008 - are a result of peak oil. someday soon, but not yet.
Looks like there are a massive amount of contracts for March delivery in Silver that could stand for delivery. Turd thinks this is bearish--- go figure.
Have you taken a look at AGQ?
No, I don't need leverage in silver. Why whats it saying?
It saying up 5% today.
USLV - Be careful crack is whack
Nikkei 60,000 baby! FTSI MIB to the moon!
Lube up!
Winning. Simply no other way to put it. Talk about gas tank hedging.
-0.2M
and fucking oil still going up
The better question is how many months supply is that at the current burn rate. America is using less, but the BRICs don't give a shit as America, and the dollar, become less relevant every day.
with every central bank printing, dollar is still stronger to compare to other currencies to precrisis time
EUR, GBP, AU are cheaper than dollar in 2007
So we are not winning the "race to the bottom", but purchasing power is still being crushed. Sorry, I have a hard time considering this a "victory" and will stay in physical assets and long energy in general.
What? We are not number one? We need to print more then. USA USA USA
WTI back to even with inventories UP...A LOT!?!?!
Someone knows something big is about to go down.
My mother called me up yesterday saying theres HS SUVs all over town and a new big flashing "Janet sign" - see something, say something. They live next to an Aegis combat system (enables navy to target all their missiles).
Something is definitely brewing...
city = ?
OT: why doesn't ZH pick up again the SHLD story. Up 20% today on a $22/s loss on plans to sell off its stores to Simon. The whole perverse movement in the stock (100% off its lows in two months time) just seems like another symptom of what this market in 2012 is all about.
Simple short squeeze by robots who can't read beyond the headlines. The reality of dilution will come to the lagging indicator that is the market will surface with the required 6-8 week lag. Plan accordingly.
I am reluctant to embrace such classical explanation in a world with 0.86 correlations to SPY.
your to generous, tyler
that seasonal transition from winter to summer gas production /sarc is going swimmingly
ibm 200, aapl 515, dow 13000. pelusi must feel rich.
Costs up, profits down, sovereign debt at unbelievable heights, millions unemployed, millions on food stamos, can't afford to fill or cars with gas (while the rich fly around in their private jets) and of course the markets and oil keep rising every day - I can't believe how this market and oil just can't go down - they have finally invented the anti gravity machine.
"they have finally invented the anti gravity machine."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Committee_to_Re-elect_the_President
Fed's Fisher says economy brighter, no need for QE3
Reuters
February 23, 2012
http://news.yahoo.com/feds-fisher-says-economy-brighter-2014-not-vow-140...
The market was supposed to be pricing in another LSAP. I guess everything is just fine now without it. Amazing how that happened without millions of good new jobs ever being created...
FUBAR.
Aaaannnnd some fine inadvertent top calling by Mr.Fisher(or is it Dr?) was what ushered in the next huge wave of dis-inflation and subsequent deleveraging, Timmy. More story time later on.
ZIRP is QE by any other name. There is a very real cost for creating capital without adding any real value. Possession is the law now.
Remarkable when the cost of funds for the Majors is essentially zero and they still can't raise the supply of oil....
yeah, funny how that works
Obama has BIG problems if gas gets above $4.00 this summer. He can parrot "it's not my fault" all day long but the people won't be having that excuse. Particularly when I tell all of my facebook friends, family, etc that his support of Bernanke's policies coupled with free money to the banks to speculate in oil is what's causing the runup in their food and gas prices. I am on a black market media tour telling everyone I know what the REAL reasons are for high food and gas prices. I suggest you do the same.
maybe I give him too much credit, but I think they'll make a big deal of it and then try to gain from it politically (ie right before the election or July 4th open the valves and his Saudi handlers will ramp up exports).
Did you catch Romney in the debate last night saying that attacking Iran took priority over higher oil prices? That should give O all the ammo he needs.
Price spike leads to economic crash, reset at lower level. The next price spike causes the same effect, at progressively lower prices. Repeat. Game over.
Post industrial world.
Maybe, three years ago Brent was under $45. Depends on what the BRICs are up to, not what the say they are up to.
"...three years ago Brent was under $45."
Hard to believe, but it was in the $40s (relevant chart is at the bottom of the page in this link):
http://www.oilnergy.com/1obrent.htm#since88
What does that chart look like when the oil is priced in gold?
I haven't seen a chart like that, but it would be interesting.
It is comical that people like Nancy Pelosi want to blame Wall Street for high oil prices but say NOTHING about the Fed pumping the money supply.
Price of gas is not going up, purchasing power of the dollar is going down. As more producers implement exchange agreements outside the dollar exchange system currently in place, the more pronounced the disparity will be between the price of oil in hard currancy (gold) and the dollar will be!
Last time DOW was approaching 14,000, oil was also under $30, I was paying $1.30 a gallon.
Now as the pump the DOW bubble over 14,000, oil will be $150, and gas $4.50...Stunning.
But even that is becoming increasingly difficult to verify (the loss of purchasing power of the dollar). With every single currency debasing themselves like madmen, the indexes increasingly lack meaning. So what if the US dollar is 79 against other currencies? If they have lost 20% through debasement what does that say abouty the dollar?
Priced in gold, Brent has gone nowhere.
No, not a post industrial world. A post fiat world.
I think you are both right. The way business operates today with cash it can not handle this kind of volatility. Business are already pushed to the limit on margin and if we contiue to have this kind of inflation in the commodities markets it will put a lot of companies out of business forcing another deflationary down leg. The only problem will be that the productive vacum created each time this happens it will negate any deflationary preasures making deflationary episodes last briefly. Business will be pushed underground into using real money while the only business that survives under government regulation will be those that directly benifit from it.
This next decade is gonna suck.
My point exactly, see post above. Same for silver.
So are all the connected banks going to rotate out of paper or digital crude into Greek, Italian and Portuguese central bank gold for Q1 end?
Jobless claims came in at 350k. Spx at 1361. All is well, it's a goldilocks economy !!!
How many weeks now months can the FED make the market go up? Atleast allow it some pull back so people can buy in to ride the wave higher. Geez BENNY, make it look somewhat natural!!!!
Once they print the money and release it they lose control of where it goes and the more they print the more it overflows in places they least expected it to. Benny is finding out the hard way what we here know to be a simple truth.
I guess theyre just THAT desperate...markets ONLY up no down allowed, evermore.
I tell you, where I am right now, Regular is at the equivalent of 8.55 USD a gallon...
With regard to the euro this chat also helps shine some light on the direction and action we could be seeing in the near future...Tracking the EUR/USD pair - 23.02.2012 http://www.traddr.com/profiles/blogs/tracking-the-eur-usd-pair-23-02-2012
where's the companion piece about iran?
I suggest that people read this very very closely
http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Oil/8972032
Nothing to see here folks - this isn't the peak you're looking for - move along. . .
Bitchez.
but don't you see once you price it in gold, supplies magically increase????
I have heard a few lecturers say, for GB, the shit will hit the fan around 2013
Ref: "Futures Reopen to Surprising Dose of Gravity" TD __ 11/9/2011 19:17 -0500 --- earleflorida 1864148
Archive @ ZH
*The late Matt Simmons Legacy - Peak Oil at $500bbl __ 7/2008
thanks tyler
Ps. this should help __ http://www.oildecline.com/news.htm