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Brian Sack's Window Dressing Farewell Gift To Wall Street
Stocks opened around 2% gap higher this morning after the late-night headlines from Europe made many think that the tooth-fairy and Santa are real once again. S&P 500 e-mini futures saw some selling into the open but then stabilized amid a very narrow range for much of the rest of the day - leaking higher on low volume-driven short-covering. The news from Germany of ESM ratification was greeted with absolutely no price movement as an indication of just how insane things are but the need to drive stocks up in the last few minutes was crazy. Into the close, volume exploded as ES rose 10pts in minutes from absolutely nowhere. Average trade size was very heavy during this period and delta skewed notably to block selling into the ramp though it is never that obvious. ES closed above its 50DMA back to its highest since 5/8.
The Window-Dressing Roadmap
It would appear that the No 'New' QE from the FOMC on 6/20 left a lot of all-important funds long-and-very-wrong. Today's rampfest miraculously lifted (window-dressing) Energy and Financials (two of the MOST sensitive sectors to QE) back to perfectly unchanged from the exact time of the FOMC announcement. Notably, since that exact time 'safe' sectors of Staples, Healthcare, and Utilities have outperformed as Tech, Materials, and Discretionary are underperforming (though all did their very best to end the month up (especially relative to the FOMC news moment)... fascinating eh?
Stocks were on their own with the last 10 points or so of the day as USD, Gold, and Treasuries all started to point south into the close (orange oval)...
Everyone enjoyed the day's window-dressing escapades aside from JPM which dropped 3% from its opening levels and closed in the red. This chart is performance from the open of today...
While stocks exuded every bit of total insanity, Treasuries ended the week lower in yield across the whole complex (leaving Gold, the Long Bond, and the USD all almost perfectly +2.8% YTD). WTI is down 14.5% YTD to close Q2 thanks to a huge VW-like 9% squeeze higher today (that acounted in correlated risk terms for around half of equity's performance) up to around $85. Equity and HY credit have recoupled but HYG is the most expensive relative to its fair-value in over a month. The USD plunged on EUR strength (and AUD carry trades) to end the week -0.66% but Gold and Silver more than doubled those implied gains ending the week +1.8%. VIX tested below 17% late on but ended above it (down 2.6 vols) closing at 6/20 closing levels. The main takeaway is that most risk assets recovered to last week's highs but stocks turned the amplifier of insanity to 11 and pushed back to near two-month highs not to be outdone into quarter-end (wink wink).
Broadly speaking risk assets lost ground on the quarter with only the long-bond and USD up from 3/30. Interestingly, the Bond, Gold, and USD are all perfectly in line as we close Q2.
Equities surged above last week's highs into the close as a combination of stop-runs and algos looking to tickle us for large block order exits (the blue bars in the chart) made the day just that little more exciting...
but WTI was the winner of the day in terms of multiple-sigma moves...
The S&P just had its best June since 1999 - makes perfect sense for all those funds that needed a good quarter...
now for the implementation of that 'save-europe' plan...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Fuck the fucking fuck!
Derahrah King Rahrah rah rah rah!!!!!!!!!
hmmmmm. What happened in '99?
OH. right
hmmmmm....
How much fiat had been printed then?
OH. right
The S&P mini is right back where it was before all the bulls got........stopped out. And now all the shorts got squeezed on the way back up. It's almost like the market goes where the liquidity is.
But I bought the 1000x inverse S&P ETF.
I prefer the 100000X myself, but just wait till next week and it will be worth a mint. If your broker doesn't liquidate your account in the meantime.
oil is what took center stage in my analysis of days events
you sure this is not the result of Supreme Court ruling this week that corporation peoples can bribe as much as they want in US politics?
Missed that one Aldous, have a link? Thanks in advance.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230487030457748847281347206...
Supreme Court Rejects Corporate Campaign Spending LimitsNot only bribery legal, it has no limit!
These guys also gave OK to illega immigrants, as long as they are law abiding slaves, they can stay in US.
As long as they vote :-/ Yeah, thanks again.
TVIX bitchez
hmmmmm.....
How much fiat has been printed since then?
OH. right
That's a trick question.
Fuck fuck fuckity fuck.
Well, RUT is fulfilling a great pattern starting Sep. Another computer generated stock simulation jammed into the exchanges.
Listen all you nitwits all that matters is this:
The EU has come out with a plan to plan the plan they are planning on presenting at the presentation to the world conference of the plan they plan to use in the plan they are planning to fix it all.
This is much better than the plan they were planning over the last year.............I promise. ;)
Once again...the comparison emerges of 1999. And in absolute numeric terms, I don't doubt it. However, in economic turns, this is more like 1937.
I suspect today's session chased out the very last of the human beings...at least those who are not part of the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street.
Thanks for this wasteland, B. Bernanke. Really appreciate it...what with you saving all of these computer rigged putrid banks and all.
Please put all the world's fiat on one side, and put all other assets on the other. Are they balanced? I think not.
Now realize that fiat has zero intrinsic value. Realize you are pricing everything in this fictional fantasy. Then realize the numbers do not matter. The only thing that matters is the supply and demand of it all.
Is there an actual demand for fiat? No. Fiat is not needed in any rudementary form. So how does it trade for real goods? Because you are living in fucking Candyland.
You forgot the MOON. /sarc
You lost me.
You forgot your bathsalts.
It's a mother fucking JOKE of a market. I was long and made $ - no sense in fighting it...nevertheless, it's a fucking pathetic excuse for a "market."
I just want to know how much this costs. Week after week, month after month, year after year - all off the books. We have to be into the trillions with all the buying. I'm not a CPA, but I just can't believe there's no trace of this spending.
Does the Fed just present the Government with a bill every year, unitemized, and we're expected to pay it?
Primary dealer buys treasury.
Primary dealer sells treasury to fed at 102%.
Primary dealer invest 2% gain in stocks.
Fed print to cover 2%.
Rinse, repeat.
Or,
Primary dealer buys treasury.
Primary dealer sells treasury to fed at 102%.
Primary dealer invest 2% gain in stocks.
Primary dealer loses 2% in stocks.
PPT buys up market.
Fed print to cover 2%, + 2% loss.
Rinse, repeat.
I'm trying to figure out how much Sack is spending. I think it was yesterday one number was 3.3 billion. Citadel isn't a PD. Isn't Citadel where Sack runs his game? Who owns Citadel? Is this where all the PPT stock is sitting? If so, their book is HUGE.
I get this is all illegal - the big boys are manipulating the Liebor, Sack can buy up anytime he wants - and no one is going to do anything about it, but the numbers are gigantic.
When you are manipulating things at this level, you also sell sometimes, so the PPT net postion is probably not all that impressive (unlike the size of the Fed's ba;ance sheet)
In the long run, you made absolutelyfuckingnothing.
On the bright side, you still get to pay taxes.
Gawd, a Erectile dysfunction of a market.
Somebody pass the JELLY!
(A cookie if you know where that line came from.)
Polaner All Fruit
No mo retail, no mo trade;
limit up/limit down,
we only trade options....or vix
no more futures....
suckers...
You don't get it... This one goes to *11*....
Bought some SSO puts into the close....
feels so good:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWSevt_i51w&feature=results_video&playnex...
A nice quarter end ramp increases taxes too, eh?
Window dressing all around.
Truly with such price action the world MUST be saved.. whew! Thank God that's over. Now, let's take a look at the global growth figures...
What shall we measure growth in? The dollar?
lol....
However you measure it, it's going to be really great watching them talk earnings down while keeping ES higher. Total joke of a market.
Way to go Tyler. You are killing it.
sarc/
Wow, I wonder how many bears were pole-axed by today's rally, now sitting in the emergency room?
What happened to that poor schlub last night who shorted $100k worth of EUR/USD contracts?
Hands down, today was one of the biggest reversal days ever.
All bearish chart action instantaneously converted into bullish patterns by TPTB:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=72282648
Now Capitain Bill O'Neil at Investors Business Daily will be giving the all clear signal to all the Riverboaters, so the momentum has now changed to the up side.
As far as the "GUMS", Europe's problems never really entered their conciousness.
Now its going to be back to:
- How much alimony will Tom Cruise have to pay?
- What is the next outrageous comment by Howard Stern on "America's Got Talent"?
- Who is going to win the NASCAR race this weekend?
- How about an update on the "Fashion Police" in US Weekly magazine?
- How many foreign escorts can I bang at The Hamptons this weekend?
- Can't wait for the barbecue on July 4th!!!
My condolences to those who shorted based on the hysterical arm waving going on at King World New about the "Global Financial Collapse"
LOL....
On Monday we will lose more than 30% of the gains from today.
Derahrah!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Works for me. My breakeven is just above the 38.2% Fibi...
Robo! you were long Lulu at 74 right?
lol , fucking loser
No doubt as well as bunch of other retailers that have been absolutely monkey-hammered since May 1... now he comes out of the closet after a 30 handle squeeze-fest... classic!
All you need to worry about is if your momma is going to kick you out of the basement this coming week...
Focus on that...
+1 for the O'Neil comment. You got that right.
However, I wonder how many retail investors (if any) O'Neil still commands.
Those he commands move only in command. Nothing in love.
Poor shlub here. Closed that short at 4:47 am. +$12.3 K. Reshorted Euro at the close today, but only $25K. Will add to it on Sunday, after the spreads close, on any uptick. Will add to that until I hit 50% of my margin (you don't even wanna know pal). Expect tod o quite well as the EU BS fals apart Monday.
Have a nice weekend small timer.
I love it when everyone gets bullish.
anyone who cannot play boths sides of the market should find another line of work
RT has it right, I'm afraid. For now.
However, this is short term stuff, the market is thin, and the winners and losers are for the most part only machines.
a one-day rally? Anyone hit by that isn't a bull or a bear, just a stupid hooman competing with HFT's. The good call right now is VXX call > 90 days. Just sit on it with a sell-target & walk away with the cash. Market's going down, no question about it. Single-day rallies mean nothing for the dow, s&p, nasdaq.
2012 06 19 dow vs oil 02 market-crash 2009 to 2012 June
Obvious Gap is Patently Obvious. Market be smashin' down very soon. Those who are long the market will be begging for soup in the street.
Hey, Robot:
How many hot race car girls will you pose with,
and
How many pictures of them will you post to this blog?
Cause, you know, that's what is important.
Wow, I wonder how many bears were pole-axed by today's rally, now sitting in the emergency room?
All bearish chart action instantaneously converted into bullish patterns by TPTB:
********
True-but it's also true that markets generally crash on good news as buying exhausts itself-
Maybe the shorts were the last of the buyers?
This has become a downright open public cock slap in your face by the Fed , its primary dealers and all the algobots working for them. Oh, and the SEC?...fuck them those complicit fucking crooks!
Don't take it personally. It's just business.
Sacks is "leaving" to become an advisor to NYFed Dudley. Something tells me he'll be giving us "gifts" for a while yet.
Well, as suspected, it's time to just push all the chips in and 'give it a try'.
Let me guess, nobody in the media will say a fucking word about it being rigged. No one single soul. Not one.
Mom and Pops say the game is rigged. They pulled their 401ks and are now all in cash. They don't care if they lose 2% YoY to inflation. Better than betting on stocks.
Well, yes, so long as the "cash" is accepted and the inflation rate really is 2%, now what are the odds that this is true? The inversion in shadow banking certainly would suggest that America's inflation buffer is quickly disappearing. Obama.Romney care certainly will add another stress to the system.
You think Mom and Pops know how to figure out real inflation rates? All they know is that the market is rigged, gold is baad, and they can buy cat food with dollars.
yes, well, at least until they can't. Stupid is as stupid does, fortunately for us, we are paying attention.
Didn't quite get the full 9% on WTI, but was selling into the close. Have a feeling next week will have no volume. Vacation time.
How is a 10% spike in crude bullish for the economy?
It's bullish for pimps and coke dealers. The Wall Street parties are going to be EPIC tomorrow night. Hopefully an entire block of tainted coke makes it's way to Brian Sack's bash and everyone ends up dead.
let those fucks spend their money. for me, simply more dry powder.
I have a bigger problem with this heat wave, water.
Not because it represents "price stability".
Which one of you bitches wants to fight? Bring it!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfdOXzbpAiU
last time I said this I got many negative votes even though I was right....dont fight the market, bears will continue getting squeezed by this joke market
nothing unexpected here
shall we file this 2Q'12 in the "makets screwed down tight" file?
or what, BiCheZ? L0L!!!
Wouldn't ya know it Slewie. I close my usd/jpy longs, and " Fraulein Snow Queen" drops a tape bomb half an hour later!
At least I got some gbp/usd. Should have listened to my gut.
hey Y/C!
[Paste from bloomie} After 13 1/2 hours of talks ending at 4:30 a.m. in Brussels today, chiefs of the 17 euro countries dropped the requirement that taxpayers get preferred creditor status on aid to Spain’s blighted banks. {end]
just screw the taxpayer for "recapitalizing PRIVATE TBTF fuktard bankster crimesters" and the speedometer cable breaks! L0L!!!
the EU stands! the banksters like it that way! it made it thru another week! nobody killed cockRobin!
yer chiropractor's gotta love the fees on these now-weekly whiplashes...
"Pull my fimnger"....!!!
One month worth of crude oil declines undone in one fucking day. Can we make it two months worth in two days?
10% from the lows of yesterday. Will Obama go after speculators again? Demand can't explain it, in fact reports came out today showing demand is falling off a cliff.
The dollar weakening can't explain a 10% shot up in one day either. Traders knew about the Iran embargo for months.
The SEC must investigate the obvious manipulation of this quarter end fiasco. But they won't, they're too busy picking the hookers for Sack's party tomorrow night.
Dude, we are in undeclared perpetual war against the oil producers don't cha know?
thank you brian sack!!! BIDU $110 calls from $.37 to $5.00!!!! we are all screwed long term, but might as well enjoy every pump along the way!!!!
http://youtu.be/JtvSlB_G_sE
Green Shoots
Two takaways:
This is a big vote of confidence in Europe - it will serve as a growth engine for the world economy forever more.
This is a big vot of confidence in Obamacare - America will rise from the ashes with this new walfare scheme.
Hooray....ever onwards my friends!
Friends?
Don't take it literally, komrade.
Is GS still short the S&P with stop @ 1390?
Let me tell you brothers and sisters, if you can learn to read this website with one side of your brain but trade with the other, you will become a force to be reckoned with.
Your observation jibes with my observation that a large number of people here are not in their right mind....
bu bu but gold man sacks said to short this bugger <sniff>
The last two days have been chimerical in numerous ways... Believe I'll pack up and go off the grid for a few weeks. Find some physical challenges that require real solutions. Sick of all the pretend.
I'm starting to get religious. Today I bought some soda and in my change was a 67 silver dime. It is a rare coin and one side has a fish.
Hoser, eh?
Very nice. Canadian silver.
Mervyn King; Bank of England says : We need a cultural revolution in our financial world. The king of £ says the City is corrupt to its short hairs!
La Banque d'Angleterre prône une révolution culturelle pour la finance britannique
What is rule Britannia coming to!
We need that philosopher clown, John Bull of Zh, to tell us all what hogwash this is and that Nigel Farage would refute this banksta shill for being a member of the Lavender hill mob! Alec Guinness of banking!
Another crony changing his tune after getting caught. Funny how these perps suddenly have a "come to Jesus" moment when they know their deeds will be prosecuted.
Save Europe plan is DEATH!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebcG_WcsezY&feature=youtu.be
Good "Ole" Merve the Swerve, is usually good for a 100pip short in "Cable" after his BoE announcements.
Long live Brian Sacks. He made irresponsable people rich.
POMO is one of the most irresponsible endeavors in human herstory
we heart brianSack
the day we pretended we could POMO the shit in our garage, attic, or garbage can, like the banksters, was the day lizzy got her pony
the tranny midget had some great swaps too
top dollar for chia pets from brianSack! what a guy!
Anyone else notice the 14 day moving average May 1 2011-July 1 2011, looks almost identical to May 1 2012-July 2012?
Brian Sack of Sh-- can use his MIT trading algorithms to play trading pattie-cake back and forth when the derivatives blow up.
The Fed created the Ponzi debt and risk game. Now they can watch when their modeling, which never anticipated the derivative risk, breaks down.
Ok... Kinda of a rook here. i cant compete with the knowledge on this board but call me nuts.. Last year BS POMO schedule ended on the same day. End of QE2.. Go look at the chart of what happend after.. Is that the grease that algos get. Notice very little if any msytery ramp jobs all of last summer. THEN.. Follow the schedule. BOOM OT is announced and the 44 billion in POMOs once again start in OCT. Compare the chart. Does the meant the temporary end to the crazy ramp jobs? Until OT extension? http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html now match the charts with the dollar amounts... ok im nuts.
This market can't be shorted, nor can it be held. Daytrading is treacherous (VWAP = Veers Where Algos Prefer), buy-and-hold is a teeter-totter, while swing trading boomerangs back in your face, and options are just expensive enough to be useless. Trade without stops and get garrotted, trade with stops and the algos magically reach 40c below the bid and "lick" them with long-wicked candles, making your order the low of any interim move (check out 1-min charts of FAS/FAZ or TNA/TZA to see X-ray evidence of the fun or, better yet, open any window and listen for trading expletives between 11:45 and 1:25, "Shit !!" and "Fuck !!" being particular favorites). Why, it's enough to make a fledgling trader apply at Pizza Hut. Still, a properly tweaked Keltner channel can be a wondrous thing, and the SMI Ergodic, for certain time periods, can be remarkably prescient. Instead, against our better judgment, let's wade knee-deep next week into the low-volume game-playing, aiming our crossbows at the hind quarters of the nearest casually dressed algo (idiots in Izods, dorks in Dockers). Oh wait, they're not people, they're computers ...
The second you short, as a retail investor, the second you are spotted by the algos as a mark. Who does not understand this?
Stay out, and join us on the observation deck. And keep stackin'
Just thought I'd throw this out there.
Did You Know An Obscure 38-Year-Old Law
Almost Guarantees A Stock Market Crash In 2012-2016?
The crash could start as early as this year - all because of a short-sighted law passed 38 years ago called ERISA.
And the scary part is, it doesn’t matter who gets elected this November. It’s likely too late to stop it.
Here’s what you need to know...
ERISA is a bill passed in 1974 that brought us IRAs and 401(k)s. And since then millions of workers have been stuffing money into these retirement accounts.
That's nearly 40 years of savings and wealth inside IRAs and 401(k)s. And almost half (48%) of that wealth is invested in the stock market.
Here’s where it gets dangerous...
ERISA threatens retirees with losing 50% of their retirement account if they don't exit the stock market by age 70.
Once a retiree turns 70 and 1/2 years-old, starting the next April 1st they must start withdrawing at least the required minimum each year... or else pay a large penalty.
So what happens if a large demographic starts turning 70 all at the same time... like the baby boomers will starting in 2016?
They will leave and the stock market will tank. The sudden drop will cause more investors to leave the stock market, and the full-blown crash will be upon us.
Many baby-boomers, having past age 65, are already retiring and taking their money out of stocks.
This here is why I keep reading ZH over and over. Not only do you have substance in what you write, you have style.
Nigel Tufnel would be so so proud...
With hyperbole (albeit slight):
Good economic news: stocks tank
Central planners intervene: stocks soar
QED
Ridiculous
Daves Daily/ETF Digest has some great stuff. this guy always has a good take
http://www.etfdigest.com/
things went great for the elite this week, obumacare,EU stick save,joy joy..what is that noise, drums drums coming closer, johny is marching,hep two three four, hep..the whole world is like berlin 1933..decadent,corrupt,fascist..(I am short again today the party is much too late the booze is gone)..the next shoe my friends is falling and its big.
EU stick save? At lunchtime, they unanimously voted to go to lunch, but they haven't decided where or who will pay. They suggest the council urgently consider this proposal. What a save.
More Equity Rally Expected.
Any traders predicting a multi month equity rally apart from me ?
As of today I am.
Last week was the turning point.
Further equity upside and USDX weakness expected this year according to my analysis.
However the SPX big picture remains very bearish and unfortunately this will not change.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis
You just can't go bearish in a market where prices are a function of policy decisions, rather than founded on market forces. It is simply impossible, you can't fight the dickheads.