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Bring Out Your Dead - UBS Quantifies Costs Of Euro Break Up, Warns Of Collapse Of Banking System And Civil War

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Any time a major bank releases a report saying a given course of action is too costly, too prohibitive, too blonde, or simply too impossible, it is nearly guaranteed that that is precisely the course of action about to be undertaken. Which is why all non-euro skeptics are advised to shield their eyes and look away from the just released report by UBS (of surging 3 Month USD Libor rate fame) titled "Euro Break Up - The Consequences." UBS conveniently sets up the straw man as follows: "Under the current structure and with the current membership, the Euro does not work. Either the current structure will have to change, or the current membership will have to change." So far so good. Yet where it gets scary is when UBS quantifies the actual opportunity cost to one or more countries leaving the Euro. Notably Germany. "Were a stronger country such as Germany to leave the Euro, the consequences would include corporate default, recapitalisation of the banking system and collapse of international trade. If Germany were to leave, we believe the cost to be around EUR6,000 to EUR8,000 for every German adult and child in the first year, and a range of EUR3,500 to EUR4,500 per person per year thereafter. That is the equivalent of 20% to 25% of GDP in the first year. " It also would mean the end of UBS, but we digress. Where it gets even more scary is when UBS, like many other banks to come, succumbs to the Mutual Assured Destruction trope made so popular by ole' Hank Paulson : "The economic cost is, in many ways, the least of the concerns investors should have about a break-up. Fragmentation of the Euro would incur political costs. Europe’s “soft power” influence internationally would cease (as the concept of “Europe” as an integrated polity becomes meaningless). It is also worth observing that almost no modern fiat currency monetary unions have broken up without some form of authoritarian or military government, or civil war." So you see: save the euro for the children, so we can avoid all out war (and UBS can continue to exist). The scariest thing, however, by far, is that for this report to have been issued, it means that Germany is now actively considering dumping the euro.

Executive summary:

Fiscal confederation, not break-up

 

Our base case with an overwhelming probability is that the Euro moves slowly (and painfully) towards some kind of fiscal integration. The risk case, of break-up, is considerably more costly and close to zero probability. Countries can not be expelled, but sovereign states could choose to secede. However, popular discussion of the break-up option considerably underestimates the consequences of such a move. 

 

The economic cost (part 1)

 

The cost of a weak country leaving the Euro is significant. Consequences include sovereign default, corporate default, collapse of the banking system and collapse of international trade. There is little prospect of devaluation offering much assistance. We estimate that a weak Euro country leaving the Euro would incur a cost of around EUR9,500 to EUR11,500 per person in the exiting country during the first year. That cost would then probably amount to EUR3,000 to EUR4,000 per person per year over subsequent years. That equates to a range of 40% to 50% of GDP in the first year. 

 

The economic cost (part 2)

 

Were a stronger country such as Germany to leave the Euro, the consequences would include corporate default, recapitalisation of the banking system and collapse of international trade. If Germany were to leave, we believe the cost to be around EUR6,000 to EUR8,000 for every German adult and child in the first year, and a range of EUR3,500 to EUR4,500 per person per year thereafter. That is the equivalent of 20% to 25% of GDP in the first year. In comparison, the cost of bailing out Greece, Ireland and Portugal entirely in the wake of the default of those countries would be a little over EUR1,000 per person, in a single hit. 

 

The political cost

 

The economic cost is, in many ways, the least of the concerns investors should have about a break-up. Fragmentation of the Euro would incur political costs. Europe’s “soft power” influence internationally would cease (as the concept of “Europe” as an integrated polity becomes meaningless). It is also worth observing that almost no modern fiat currency monetary unions have broken up without some form of authoritarian or military government, or civil war.

A little more on that particularly troubling last point:

Do monetary unions break up without civil wars?

 

The break-up of a monetary union is a very rare event. Moreover the break-up of a monetary union with a fiat currency system (ie, paper currency) is extremely unusual. Fixed exchange rate schemes break up all the time. Monetary unions that relied on specie payments did fragment – the Latin Monetary Union of the 19th century fragmented several times – but should be thought of as more of a fixed exchange rate adjustment. Countries went on and off the gold or silver or bimetal standards, and in doing so made or broke ties with other countries’ currencies.

 

If we consider fiat currency monetary union fragmentation, it is fair to say that the economic circumstances that create a climate for a break-up and the economic consequences that follow from a break-up are very severe indeed. It takes enormous stress for a government to get to the point where it considers abandoning the lex monetae of a country. The disruption that would follow such a move is also going to be extreme. The costs are high – whether it is a strong or a weak country leaving – in purely monetary terms. When the unemployment consequences are factored in, it is virtually impossible to consider a break-up scenario without some serious social consequences.

 

With this degree of social dislocation, the historical parallels are unappealing. Past instances of monetary union break-ups have tended to produce one of two results. Either there was a more authoritarian government response to contain or repress the social disorder (a scenario that tended to require a change from democratic to authoritarian or military government), or alternatively, the social disorder worked with existing fault lines in society to divide the country, spilling over into civil war. These are not inevitable conclusions, but indicate that monetary union break-up is not something that can be treated as a casual issue of exchange rate policy.

 

Even with a paucity of case studies, what evidence we have does lend credence to the political cost argument. Clearly, not all parts of a fracturing monetary union necessarily collapse into chaos. The point is not that everyone suffers, but that some part of the former monetary union is highly likely to suffer.

 

The fracturing of the Czech and Slovak monetary union in 1993 led to an immediate sealing of the border, capital controls and limits on bank withdrawals. This was not so much secession as destruction and substitution (the Czechoslovak currency ceased to exist entirely). Although the Czech Republic that emerged from the crisis was considered to be a free country (using the Freedom House definition), with political rights improving relative to Czechoslovakia (also considered to be a free country), Slovakia saw a deterioration in the assessment of its political rights and civil liberties, and was designated “partially free” (again, using Freedom House criteria).

 

Similarly the break-up of the Soviet Union saw authoritarian regimes in the resulting states. Of course, this was not a change from the previous status quo, but that is not the point. The question is not how a liberal democracy develops, but whether a liberal democracy could withstand the social turmoil that surrounds a monetary union fracturing. We lack evidence to support the idea that it could.

 

Even the US monetary union break-up in 1932-33 was accompanied by something close to authoritarianism. Roosevelt’s inauguration was described by a contemporary journalist as being conducted in “a beleaguered capital in wartime”, with machine guns covering the Mall. State militia were called out to deal with the reactions of local populations, unhappy at what had happened to the monetary union (and specifically their access to their banks).

 

Older examples are less helpful, as they tend to be more akin to fixed exchange rate regimes under a gold standard or some other international monetary arrangement. Nevertheless, the Irish separation from the UK, or the convulsions of the Latin Monetary Union in Europe (particularly around the Franco-Prussian war in 1870 and its aftermath) saw monetary unions fragment with varying degrees of violence in some parts of the union.

 

Writing in 1997, the Harvard economist Martin Feldstein offered a view that seems to be somewhat chillingly precognitive. He said “Uniform monetary policy and inflexible exchange rates will create conflicts whenever cyclical conditions differ among the member countries... Although a sovereign country... could in principle withdraw from the EMU, the potential trade sanctions and other pressures on such a country are likely to make membership in the EMU irreversible unless there is widespread economic dislocation in Europe or, more generally, a collapse of the peaceful coexistence within Europe.” (emphasis added).

As for what happens if UBS, and the Euro Unionists lose the fight for the euro:

Our base case for the Euro is that the monetary union will hold together, with some kind of fiscal confederation (providing automatic stabilisers to economies, not transfers to governments). This is how the US monetary union was resurrected in the 1930s. It is how the UK monetary union, and indeed the German monetary union, have held together.

 

But what if the disaster scenario happens? How can investors invest if they believe in a break-up, however low the probability? The simple answer is that they cannot. Investing for a break-up scenario has not guaranteed winners within the Euro area. The growth consequences are awful in any break-up scenario. The risk of civil disorder questions the rule of law, and as such basic issues such as property rights. Even those countries that avoid internal strife and divisions will likely have to use administrative controls to avoid extreme positions in their markets.

 

The only way to hedge against a Euro break-up scenario is to own no Euro assets at all.

Alas, this will be the final outcome. Unfortunately trillions more in taxpayer capital will be lost before we get there.

In the meantime, enjoy as UBS just unwittingly announced the final countdown for the EUR.

xrm45126

 

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Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:19 | 1636408 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture


Warns Of Collapse Of Banking System And Civil War

....revenge of the zombie banks!! It's a perfect C-budget sci-fi movie. They eat wallets, credit cards and bank accounts! Oh my

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:24 | 1636427 brew
brew's picture

it's all coming together quite nicely...

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:44 | 1636530 Michael
Michael's picture

I love it when my plans come together.

I've been taunting the Wall Street whiz kids for decades so they would continue blowing up our monetary system despite the bubble years, and they performed admirably for me.

Complete and total worldwide economic annihilation was the only way to achieve my goal. Sorry.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:50 | 1636550 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Couldn't you just have invested in a 401k plan? 

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:54 | 1636564 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Don't give me this shit here.

 

 

If things are so bad, why is Gold at a WIMPY $1903??

 

Why is gold not at $2500+??

 

If the Shit is Hitting The Fan, Why is gold not $4900., and Silver not $350.???

 

 

WTF are you waiting for???

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:56 | 1636573 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Oh, RIGGHHHT!

 

Gold and Silver price are BEING MANIPULATED DOWN!

 

Pussies.

 

Gold and silver can rise above all this bullshit IF THEY HAVE THE BALLS!!!

 

.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:04 | 1636614 tickhound
tickhound's picture

this one's still only mostly dead

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:09 | 1636631 Zer0henge
Zer0henge's picture

To Blathe. Bitchez

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:38 | 1636745 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

ROUS's, bitches.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 22:06 | 1636834 erg
erg's picture

I feel happy, I feel happy. Python.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grbSQ6O6kbs

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 22:36 | 1636905 Arthur Two Shed...
Arthur Two Sheds Jackson's picture

Europe:What was it?

The Grim Reaper:The Salmon Mousse.......

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoBTsMJ4jNk

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 22:49 | 1636928 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Who will play the roles of the European versions of Hank 'Tank in the Streets' Paulson, Ben 'No Banker Haircuts' Bernanke & Timmmay 'I Want To Be A Player - Can I? Huh? Please' Geithner?

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 00:38 | 1637173 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

NL will be the first to abort the euro and go back to the Gulden.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 01:27 | 1637292 eureka
eureka's picture

Nobody is going to leave the EUR.

UBS are the scumbags who ripped of US IRS.

Fuck UBS and fuck investors/gamblers/banksters everywhere.

Germany will let their own banks take a haircut. German citizens will soak up billions more of ever more austerity strikken and thus cheaper Greek coastal real estate (Germans don't have much coastline at home).

Germany will keep its manufacturing engine pumping quality goods to both their EU/EUR partners and China.

US markets will collapse within the next nine months. Watch carefully - as the EU distraction game comes to an end and further foreign financial scapegoat stories expire.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 03:04 | 1637413 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Agree, first the EUR dies (and this could take some decades) before any member leaves.

Agree, anything a TBTF says has an agenda. My suspicion is that UBS needs a stronger dollar.

Disagree, "US market collapse" is a big word. Ben will print (much) more.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 01:50 | 1637335 the tower
the tower's picture

You obviously don't know anything about The Netherlands. 75% of export goes to EU countries. By leaving the Euro they will damage their economy beyond repair. They will be the LAST to leave.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 01:55 | 1637341 Tompooz
Tompooz's picture

No way. At most they will make sure to be part of a new and smaller core-euro zone together with Germany, Austria, Luxembourg (Belgium is the question- Brussels sits right on top of the fault-line.) and other budget-balancers. 

You have heard what Zalm said about the consequences of leaving.

Hope your old guilders and rijksdaalders are all of the silver variety. :-)

 

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 07:19 | 1637629 Finger firmly i...
Finger firmly in dike's picture

Where can i sign? Would be great but it is probably too late.

 

They still have (or perhaps now had) the 'gulden' in Bonaire. What a wonderful experience to use that again but presume they will have to change seeing they are now a dutch municipality.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 22:51 | 1636933 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

As you wish...

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:55 | 1636794 snowball777
snowball777's picture

which is slightly alive!

Wed, 09/07/2011 - 22:35 | 1644609 Inibo E. Exibo
Inibo E. Exibo's picture

God help me, I love it so.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:08 | 1636628 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

well the thing that got ron paul into politics was nixon abolishing the gold standard. and it looks he was basically correct that this would ruin america.

it took 40+ years to come to fruition. let's hope the crowning achievement of ron paul's political career is being elected president in 2012.

http://azizonomics.com/2011/09/05/stagnation-nation/ 

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 22:21 | 1636875 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Don Coxe Update, focus on gold equities in the Q+A

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=1607

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:03 | 1636967 hivekiller
hivekiller's picture

I hate to tell you but if Ron Paul is elected President either he will be assassinated or America will be attacked as a 'terrorist' nation. Think Libya. Think JFK. Think Andrew Jackson. Get the picture? I'm not saying I won't vote for Paul but if we are serious about taking back our country and our rights, we have to shed a lot of blue blood.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:16 | 1636999 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

I junked you.. All you have to do is cut your consumption in half.. There is nothing to "take back"..  Its all gone, or its garbage..  Vote however you want, or, don't vote. same thing.. Cut your consumption in half and the system resets. Prepare, then do your part to grow it all back organically.. Your lifestyle doesn't change.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:23 | 1637018 hivekiller
hivekiller's picture

The Obamanomy has already cut my consumption in half and guess what? He's still there.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 00:07 | 1637102 Joy on Maui
Joy on Maui's picture

I did this some time ago, not for ideological but for purely ecological and ethical reasons.   I just now realize that it is the most profound political statement we can make.   Thank you for pointing that out, and please, let's spread the word.  A dollar spent is a vote cast, after all.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 00:58 | 1637222 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

living with less, desiring less, needing less - freedom.

it's a tough call for consumers to learn how to be citizens again, I'm not holding my breath tho'

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 01:23 | 1637282 Mauibrad
Mauibrad's picture

Hope they do it.  Let's get this show on the road.  Pull the plug on the Euro.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 06:47 | 1637611 DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

But you all need to just read (and believe) high-priest FOFOA to understand why the ECB is the world's most perfect banking mechanism, all will be well. </sarc>

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 01:21 | 1637274 jeffersonWorthington
jeffersonWorthington's picture

I did the same

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 04:01 | 1637456 Ganja Jane
Ganja Jane's picture

###

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 04:00 | 1637457 Ganja Jane
Ganja Jane's picture

You forgot good ol' Abe Lincoln. Give the Greenback some love...

I was gonna write the same. For that reason, Dr.Paul has a target on him.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:12 | 1636646 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

@midlife crisis troll-Your mom goes to college.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:01 | 1636960 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Napoleon Dynamite +Infinty

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:25 | 1636703 Reptil
Reptil's picture

The reality has not yet hit home over here. Conditioning that all's well is in effect, that managing consensus will lead to continuation of the ponzi, and hollidays are just over. Do not expect the average trader or investor to be well informed or have the mindset that goes with the screen name "Crisismode".

Give it some time... and then add true scarcity of the physical, and you'll have a perfect storm with no ceiling.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:28 | 1637031 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Also just cause gold "ain't" at $2500 does not mean it cannot get there is a few days or even a day.

As far as a war with the euro breaking up...   Czechoslovakia had a very civilized break up where the Czech Repub went it's way and Slovakia went it's way.  It helps that both countries are pretty level headed and civilized.   They nevr should have let Greece, Portugal and maybe Spain in the EU.  They never should have had a common currency.

Almost from the day the euro was launched - most Germans and Italians knew it was a big mistake.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:37 | 1637051 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Freddie... Lest we not forget, It was goldman sucks that helped Greece doctor their books to make the deficit look smaller than it was... GS designed SIVs just for Greece to hide debt...

The terrorists of 9-11 hit the wrong buildings...

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 01:24 | 1637283 molecool
molecool's picture

This German hated the very concept from day one. And here I am being proven right - once again. Bringing back the Deutsche Mark would be a major step forward - the sooner we abandon this failed experiment the better (and the cheaper for us Germans).

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 01:54 | 1637340 the tower
the tower's picture

You may have hated it but it brought you wealth the past 10 years. Wealth you could not have gained without the Euro. The problem is NOT the Euro, the problem is the international financial system of corrupt and greedy banks and politicians.

 

They will stay after the Euro goes and will continue their games, so fight the cause, not the side-effects.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 05:13 | 1637532 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

It brought wealth to German companies, but not to German citizens. Not all of it had to do with the Euro, but I am just saying that the ordinary German lost wealth in the past 10 years. (lowest income lost a staggering 22 % since 2001; only people earning more than 4000 EUR/month got a little plus; rest lost wealth).

When I was a kid the people in my country could be considered wealthy. That is not the case anymore. Sadly.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 05:19 | 1637538 Léonard
Léonard's picture

Again, the end of the Euro will not mean the end of the European unity.

If there's going to be a war in Europe, it will be against 3 specific targets :

- the anglo-american domination

- the financial and banking system

- the afro-muslim colonization

Europeans will not fight against each others. I know some on the other side of the Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea would love to see that happen, but it won't.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 06:52 | 1924591 Optimusprime
Optimusprime's picture

I hope you're right about the war aims.  Just don't let the anglo-american-Jewish cabal distract you into fighting each other again.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 08:16 | 1637709 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

Gold has discount window not make you happy?

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 21:26 | 1640416 candyman
candyman's picture

patience young grasshopper, everyone not out of the theater yet, the last scene has not been shown yet.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:01 | 1636595 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Won't be a long wait now.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:12 | 1636643 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

I guess its fair to say that you are long equities, own no gold and believe in this and the European goverments??

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:38 | 1636744 lix333
lix333's picture

If shit hits the fan gold and silver will be the first thing people and central banks will sell. What else does a liquidity crunch mean?

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:44 | 1637066 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Not... What you described happened in 2008 because of a liquidity shortage...

The situation is not the same now... Fiat has been pouring into gold in a flight to safety... Otherwise the spot price would have been moving with securities as in the past few years... Gold is now decoupling from all other asset classes...

Pull up the charts and compare for yourself.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:46 | 1636767 kito
kito's picture

@crisis mode

here is your answer, compliments of chris martenson:

 


Using an example drawn from a magnificent paper by Dr. Albert Bartlett, let me illustrate the power of compounding for you.

Suppose I had a magic eye dropper and I placed a single drop of water in the middle of your left hand. The magic part is that this drop of water is going to double in size every minute.

At first nothing seems to be happening, but by the end of a minute, that tiny drop is now the size of two tiny drops.

After another minute, you now have a little pool of water that is slightly smaller in diameter than a dime sitting in your hand.

After six minutes, you have a blob of water that would fill a thimble.

Now suppose we take our magic eye dropper to Fenway Park, and, right at 12:00 p.m. in the afternoon, we place a magic drop way down there on the pitcher’s mound.

To make this really interesting, suppose that the park is watertight and that you are handcuffed to one of the very highest bleacher seats.

My question to you is, “How long do you have to escape from the handcuffs?” When would it be completely filled? In days? Weeks? Months? Years? How long would that take?

I’ll give you a few seconds to think about it.

The answer is, you have until 12:49 on that same day to figure out how you are going to get out of those handcuffs. In less than 50 minutes, our modest little drop of water has managed to completely fill Fenway Park.

Now let me ask you this – at what time of the day would Fenway Park still be 93% empty space, and how many of you would realize the severity of your predicament?

Any guesses? The answer is 12:45. If you were squirming in your bleacher seat waiting for help to arrive, by the time the field is covered with less than 5 feet of water, you would now have less than 4 minutes left to get free.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:52 | 1636784 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Nice.  A new version of would you like to double your penny every day for a month, or have a crsip new $100 for the month.

 

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:57 | 1636800 kito
kito's picture

i wouldnt take either, as i figure we are less than five minutes from fiat currency drowning

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 22:16 | 1636864 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

I would take the pennies if they were pre-1982.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 00:26 | 1637150 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

I would hope the beer guy is close by at 12:45.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 04:04 | 1637460 Ganja Jane
Ganja Jane's picture

+1

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 22:40 | 1636843 mcguire
mcguire's picture

here is a good lecture on the same topic.. a classic!  plus, he gets into the implications for demographics, peak oil, etc.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umFnrvcS6AQ

 

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 01:36 | 1637312 akenathon
akenathon's picture

Because people won't eat Gold (and I am a bull since 2006 on Goold)!!!!!!!!

What States can and might eventually do:

1) Declare Gold illegal (this already happened in the US)
2) Put a tax on money withdrown and limit the amount one could take every day (this already happened in France during the 70's)

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:52 | 1636555 whoflungdung
whoflungdung's picture

"I love it when my plans come together."

 

Michael, either you are arrogant thinking it's YOUR plan, ...or... you are Alan Greenspan. (in disguise?)

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:18 | 1636670 Michael
Michael's picture

Alan Greenspan is my tool and my hero. He is the architect of the greatest economic collapse in the history of the world. I could not have done it without him.

The entire beast will now be starved to death.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:20 | 1637007 unununium
unununium's picture

So that makes you... Ayn Rand!

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 00:55 | 1637217 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Maybe Michael is John Galt

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 01:38 | 1637321 Michael
Michael's picture

I am John Gault Modified.

I have had 8 years of sabbaticals in the last 25 years of my working carrier in between jobs.

PS, See Lindsey Graham holding a Ron Paul Blimp Balloon.

Lindsey Graham Endorses Ron Paul

http://schotline.us/2011/09/05/lindsey-brian-embrace-graham-to-endorse-paul/

 

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:20 | 1636683 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I cant figure out if he is psychotic or just pretending to be psychotic. I am now leaning toward the former.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:31 | 1636719 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Greenspan or Michael? If Michael, he's just a pretender...

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:51 | 1636772 Michael
Michael's picture

Do not underestimate the power of the will, wielded by the right hands, to do immense damage to those that deserve it.

Now get your ass moving on that QE3 Ben!

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 05:49 | 1637565 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

Harry? Is that you?

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:59 | 1636812 Dick Fitz
Dick Fitz's picture

Having read Greenspan's 60s "objectivist" libertarian views on gold, and watched his actions in the last 3 decades, the only plausible and rational conclusion is that he wants to be a sub rosa "John Galt" since his actions are not rational otherwise.

He may get his wish, but his personal diaries better make his actions pretty damn explicit or else he will be as reviled as Hitler or Nero.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:05 | 1636972 technovelist
technovelist's picture

Greenspan's model was Francisco D'Anconia.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:45 | 1637067 Waffen
Waffen's picture

Just imagine the moment, were Greenspan to announce a very important messege at a highly publicized press conference and he were to pull off a John Galt type of speech explaining his past actions with their full intention to bring down the fony monetary system.  Ah it would be genius.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 00:25 | 1637138 Michael
Michael's picture

You complete me.

I always wanted to say that Waffen.

And I like the color of your blouse.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 02:39 | 1637390 Reven
Reven's picture

And on that day, gold shoots to $6,000.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 22:33 | 1636899 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture
Euro Break-Up Threat Hitting US - Ex-Fed Chief Greenspan

"The euro is breaking down," Greenspan said. European banks are in trouble because they hold debt of countries close to default, such as Greece, he added. "The reason we're so sluggish is the level of uncertainty."

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110823-711383.html

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 07:46 | 1637649 Léonard
Léonard's picture

China is for the Euro. Russia is for the Euro.

Both are dumping the dollar. Both are for a gold standard. Both are for an Eurasia partnership.

The only money nobody wants anymore in this world is the dollar. The country nobody worldwide can stand anymore are the USA.

You Anglo-Americans are in big trouble. You have done so much harm that the world is slowly rising rise against you. Nobody wants to trade with you and nobody will come to help you.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 08:39 | 1637815 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Leonard,

You Anglo-Americans are in big trouble. You have done so much harm that the world is slowly rising rise against you. Nobody wants to trade with you and nobody will come to help you.

Good, we do not want your help.

We can take care of ourselves,(have been for 235yrs) evidently you still cannot, as we keep sending our tax dollars over there to bail your ass out also,

PLUS, next time you get a war going there, we won't save your sorry assses for the THIRD time.

Ingrate SOB's.

Wed, 09/07/2011 - 08:09 | 1641527 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Yeah... and the average Brit never dreamed in 1920 that the Sun would soon set on its  Empire, and rather quickly.

The problem with far too many U.S. citizens is they are so overtly self-assured in their always being right, they've stopped questioning their means and methods, F all else who might criticize their ways. 

Anyone who went through WWII will tell you: The problem with most Americans (U.S. variety) is they've never had bombs dropped on them.  Oh, yeah... we've had Pearl Harbor and 9/11... but these are one-off events.  Try sitting in your cellar with the lights off in your house night after night hoping the bombs you hear landing nearby don't hit your house.

No doubt the U.S. brought many great things worthy of proudly waving the Stars and Stripes.  But when it's waved to be secure big business interest, protect the banking cartels, hidden behind to remodel and destabilize the Mid East...  Kinda Ugly, and that's what the rest of the world mostly thinks...   The U.S. was great when it was about freedom, liberty and rights.  Today its about centralized power, a quasi police state, corporatism, etc. etc.

While SouthPark intended this for lefty enviro self-righteous bastards, it's appropriate for many in the U.S. when it comes to their superiority complex:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6hlUF4h-ZY

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 08:49 | 1637853 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

What the fuck are you talking about you French dumbass and who are you addressing? 

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 21:16 | 1640387 Religion Explained
Religion Explained's picture

"French dumbass" is redundant, non? (see what I did there? He, he)

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:57 | 1636801 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Full-on Bellevue special.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 00:11 | 1637107 Michael
Michael's picture

I cant figure out if he is psychotic or just pretending to be psychotic.

That about sums it up.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 00:21 | 1637126 Michael
Michael's picture

It's the subtle things you appreciate the most.

The change in the mood and the tone in the voices of the CNBC commentators.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 01:07 | 1637242 snowball777
snowball777's picture

So...both.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 22:30 | 1636891 Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

It sounds like UBS is threatening a war if they don't get their way.  I'm pretty sure that terroristic threatening is a crime in most places.  Assholes

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 05:55 | 1637570 richard in norway
richard in norway's picture

yes but they have plausible denialability

 

we were just thinking out loud"

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 00:22 | 1637132 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

You mean it's all coming apart quite nicely don't you?

This is quite the tell. Meme seeding, bank says, watch out below, seriously. And then the bottom falls out.

What a day/week/time!

V

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/09/05/water-branding-and-thoughts/

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 05:22 | 1637541 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Like two thumbs on a boil............. Bitches

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 21:00 | 1640344 Dolar in a vortex
Dolar in a vortex's picture

Linked here on Drudge. That will pop the visit count.

Wed, 09/07/2011 - 13:14 | 1642613 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

I think they will try to force more governance on the EU countries. Germany and France will be given the most votes/power and the the UK will leave the EU. Consolidation of governance and power has always been the aim of the Globalist despots. Whether the average European will accept an overt move to place them under a common yoke or not. Civil war is definitely on the table. Such a mess...

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:32 | 1636470 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

China will save the EU.  It's in her self interest to, since she needs more time to transform her own economy, and deal with overcapacity, and the Triffin Dilemma.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:52 | 1636556 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

"China will save the EZ (not EU)"

China stuck it's foot in the door, but has since pulled out when they realized how much a rescue would cost.

Now China is working on saving China because of the deepening recessions in Europe and U.S. will

hit China very hard too.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:18 | 1636672 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

China will save the EMU.  It would be cheaper for china & the EU to support an expanded EFSF, than allow the breakup of the EMU.   The only real question left is how to get to that exit condition in a political palatable way. 

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:40 | 1636746 chump666
chump666's picture

China is done. 

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:21 | 1637013 chump666
chump666's picture

...and dusted

Sh*ts in the wind now.

yes I am listening to Johnny Cash

 

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:25 | 1637020 chump666
chump666's picture

Greece is first: Greece's 2-year government bond yield is about 49%.

C-hair away from default ranges.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 00:30 | 1637157 narnia
narnia's picture

i'm not buying the breakdown of trade scenario.  the banks will get crushed, but that won't affect the debtors.  they'll just have new bankruptcy court appointed creditors.  the products will still move.  the transactions will just be settled differently.

this poorly conceived monetary union is not even 20 years old.  these countries had tons of trade when they all had separate currencies...  and will do so again without the EU.  most people in the Treasury departments of these countries remember the old days, and i wouldn't be surprised it they prefer the way it was.

China can actually play a more important role in post mortem EU than bailing it out.  they can divest tons of $ (may be needed in settlement) & slide in an RMB float on these separate European currencies.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 05:04 | 1637521 Léonard
Léonard's picture

Many here still don't understand that the Eurozone and the UE are two separate things.

You can be a member of the UE without having the Euro. Examples : Danemark, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Poland...

This mean, the Europeans countries will still cooperate and trade after the Euro like they did before the Euro was created.

The collapse of the Euro will not mean the end of the European unity.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 15:18 | 1639186 narnia
narnia's picture

Hank Paulson-like hyperbole requires the blind acceptance and regurgitation of the ridiculous and unfounded myth that the "world will end if the banks aren't bailed out".

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:00 | 1636590 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

UBS analysis: If Germany were to leave, we believe the cost to be around EUR6,000 to EUR8,000 for every German adult and child in the first year, and thereafter each newborn child must be sold to the Chinese for a range of EUR3,500 to EUR4,500.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:12 | 1636648 trav7777
trav7777's picture

It's ALWAYS the end of the world if we peer behind the curtain and throw out the jew confetti.

GFD how would we live without their usury and compound interest rackets?  How would we live without THEM doing us this indispensable service of charging us interest to use our money?

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 00:10 | 1637103 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

It's not a "new racket" and if it wasn't "them" it would be someone else.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:56 | 1636799 max2205
max2205's picture

Who loaned UBS Paulsons Bazzoka Letter

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 22:14 | 1636856 POpatriot
POpatriot's picture

I wouldn't worry about it...Didn't you hear Obama has a jobs speech coming up this weekend?  Sure he got over ruled by a debate and a football game but I'm sure its really important.

http://www.youtube.com/user/POpatriot 

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 22:39 | 1636912 Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

I'm not so sure - I think Maxine Waters gave the jobs speech already (something like "$1,000,000,000,000.00" 'will really do it this time'.  Obama's speech is just a campaign speech bashing anyone who thinks Maxine's number is too big. 

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 03:02 | 1637412 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Maxine Waters does not have the mental capacity to appreciate the enormity of a trillion, but then most Americans don't have a clue either.

Regardless, if stupidity was gravity, what would Maxine Waters be?

 

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 04:05 | 1637461 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

I see what you did there! :>D

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 05:48 | 1637563 krispkritter
Tue, 09/06/2011 - 21:26 | 1640415 Religion Explained
Religion Explained's picture

Excellent, and God, she sure is one!

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 02:15 | 1637366 DosZap
DosZap's picture

ALL BS and scare tactics.............................a deal will be forthcoming.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/business/global/reluctantly-europe-inches-closer-to-a-fiscal-union.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss< >

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 05:38 | 1637554 Filanderer
Filanderer's picture

Investors losing their shirts in gold and silver in the long term ( next few years ) is going to be the ultimate irony , since no one believes this can happen, this has to happen.

Money is made betting against the market  & mass mood, not by betting alongwith . Now every second guy says invest in gold and silver, is the long term trend in gold and silver not clear to anyone at ZH even now ?

 

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 06:16 | 1637592 iNull
Tue, 09/06/2011 - 06:33 | 1637604 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Yes ... I understand all that "preamble" shit.

Now what do you want Bitch......

More money!!! Come on out, you whore and just say it... I want sugar and if I don't get it your going to be so sorry you never gave me what I asked.

Guess what Bitch...

I don't give a flying fuck. Your ass is grass.

I'm Divorced, I know how this UBS Chick rolls. Fucking prostitute with low self worth (factually)

BITCHES...

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:19 | 1636411 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Wow, is all I say

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:40 | 1636513 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

don't say anything but keep your mouth shut tight else the crap spewing from the bank's statements may enter. nothing they 'claim' or 'forshadow' to be the end result of a breakup has any basis in fact so don't be fooled by their efforts to speak it into reality.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:29 | 1636713 Skid Marks
Skid Marks's picture

 

As pointed out by ZH, the report is a tad bit one sided and skewed to puff up the need for the bank.

Roosevelt’s inauguration was described by a contemporary journalist (who) as being conducted in “a beleaguered capital in wartime”, with machine guns covering the Mall (isn't security always a concern at such an event) . State militia were called out to deal with the reactions of local populations, unhappy at what had happened to the monetary union (and specifically their access to their banks).

 

 

I should think that people care less about the bank and more about their money that the bank is supposed to be holding for them. But it's not in the author's best interest to make that point, that banks are expendable.

 

 

President Franklin Roosevelt 1933 Inauguration

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX_v0zxM23Q

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 21:28 | 1640418 Religion Explained
Religion Explained's picture

Dude, those are frigging ugly, you need a new pair.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:34 | 1636730 MacGruber
MacGruber's picture

Agreed. The message is "stay the course or the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse will run through your family's house and your country will be reduced to rubble." Those cost figures are bullshit, especially the "following after". Reminds me of the final scene of Clear and Present Danger, the fictitious antithetical threat that honest reform would exact.

The real "cost" is economic freedom for both sides of the transaction, both for those that leave and stay, and a future of modest economic growth. If a common currency was so important to trade then, as an example, Canada and the U.S. would have been using a common dollar years ago. It's all fantasy.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:20 | 1636417 moonstears
moonstears's picture

Silver, bitchez

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:58 | 1636583 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Do you have a little bit of braincells in your head?

 

 

DO you have an original thought in your cranium?

 

.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:08 | 1636627 runlevel
runlevel's picture

i find it interesting that youre acting like such a bitch about pro silver/gold comments yet your profile image is what appears to be a green box of silver/gold eagles.. 

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:44 | 1636760 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Gold Eagles are in red boxes.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:22 | 1637014 unununium
unununium's picture

+1,000,000 which is what a mint box of gold eagles is worth these days

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 22:01 | 1636814 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Yup.  Sure looks like a Monster Box to me.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:53 | 1637078 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Troll with a moster box avatar... how clever... lol

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 08:22 | 1637733 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

When you're introspecting you can use notepad

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:21 | 1636420 moonstears
moonstears's picture

and....beans?

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:21 | 1636421 antaresteleko
antaresteleko's picture

...how could you guys read the article so quickly?

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:23 | 1636426 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

Evelyn Wood, bitchez!

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:26 | 1636443 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Its reflected in the 'quality' of the first few responses - the finest logic and coherent arguments from nothing other than trolls.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:14 | 1636846 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Article:  Europe is going to shit.  There.

All the rest is minor details.   Especially if one is not trading in a suicide market.

I'm busy with my new phone ap.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:12 | 1636986 mcguire
mcguire's picture

my baby can read.. 

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:26 | 1636422 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

uhhh. 

This is why UBS sucks. The only candle UBS has to burn is by sucking Connecticuts dick.....joking, Connecticut sucks on the UBS shaft, which only means that Connecticut is in worse shape than ever, thank god for SAC.

Germany would be fine...the jury is still out for Connecticut, but UBS sucks tits up. 

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:29 | 1636456 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Unemployment would go up, but that's bound to happen as debtor countries borrow more and more and creditor countries (China and Germany) realize they are not getting paid back so they lend debtor countries less (or not at all) and both economies slow (again bound to happen anyway).

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:36 | 1636481 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

CT would be a diaper stain without the hedgies. A SERIOUS diaper stain.

Germany will always be good because Germans work hard and make quality products that people want on an international scale.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:48 | 1636544 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Germany still needs someone to buy their products who will have the wealth to do so. Being that the Germans usually have a stronger currency, I don't think they will come through unscathed (only meaning unemployment goes up because there will not be enough buyers of their products).

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:17 | 1637001 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Germany, like Japan and China, just want to export and have wealth but never spend anything in trade.  They just want to hoard hoard hoard.

Trade flows MUST normalize...these nations cannot go on exporting forever and buying nothing.  Eventually, their customers run out of money.  They can't have the perpetual benefit of a weak currency.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:37 | 1637042 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

The deutsche mark would make Germany very powerful.

I've thought on many occasion that Germany is the saboteur of the eurozone.  I would if I was Germany.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 23:58 | 1637089 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Clever trav... Germany sends BMWs south, Italy sends back pasta, Spain sends Germany a couple of bull fighters, greece sends a few statues sans noses and arms, and portugal sends cans of sardines...

Sounds fair to me...

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 06:33 | 1637605 DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

5 x 1oz Philharmonics for a BMW 535d, bitchez

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 06:58 | 1637619 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Exactly. Why would another country enter a trading bloc/ sign a free trade agreement with either?

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:51 | 1636552 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Connecticut pays UBS then sucks them off.

 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903461304576526901925319300.html

Like Bruce Willis, they are dead but they don't know it.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:06 | 1636579 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Like I said Connecticut sucks. 

Think about it. Take every hedge fund out of Connecticut what do you have? Could you imagine New Canaan without the hedgefund community? Who would want to buy anything in New Canaan? Ever window shop there? 

Westport and Ridgefield are the only places with any kind of class.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:11 | 1636624 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Exactly.  Nuevo Haven, sanctuary city extrordinaire, and a capitol city based on insurance, which has no business being a city.  They will choke on the color blue, hard.  No one can afford to live in Ridgefield or Westport any more, by the way.  Constitution state, indeed.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 21:12 | 1636650 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

If UBS is planning on moving their employees from Stamford to NYC, let me say on behalf of said employees: "Fuck UBS"

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:22 | 1636423 Mongrel
Mongrel's picture

Mitteleuropa is not dead!

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:38 | 1636502 Alvaro de Esteban
Alvaro de Esteban's picture

Sure is alive, but if his people keep on with the Euro farce, will die form a feta, paella & salami indigestion

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:23 | 1636425 ItsDanger
ItsDanger's picture

Perhaps this is a novel concept but maybe money should only be lent when it is highly probable to expect full repayment.

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 00:02 | 1637093 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

But todays bankers don't care if the money is paid back... the bankers bonus/commission is paid when the loan is made... The more bad deals that are struck, the bigger the bankers payday...

What could possibly go wrong?

Tue, 09/06/2011 - 05:04 | 1637525 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

And when loans go bad, they are dumped onto the taxpayers. Privatize profits, socialize losses. The more profits and more subsequent losses, the bigger wealth redistribution at the end of each cycle. So, in fact bankers care if money is not paid back - they are  incentivized to make sure that losses are as big as possible to grab a bigger percentage of wealth in the end. They mastered the CC-PP Game almost to a point of perfection: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CC%E2%80%93PP_game

Only problem arises when there is nothing left to grab and general populace is completely sucked out of any money. It appears this day has come since economy reached debt saturation: http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2010/03/most-important-chart-of-century... . Next for the financial elite probably is to start canibalizing each other or reset the system and write-off liabilities - big war usually helps.

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:24 | 1636428 Everyman
Everyman's picture

INDEED, bitchez!

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 20:25 | 1636432 --Freedom--
--Freedom--'s picture

Whoops. Doesn't this mean they are even more screwed than anyone in Europe has been willing to admit publicly?
What they hell is holding the Euro in the 1.40-1.45 range all this time?

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