British Double Dip Accelerates Following "Terrible" GDP Data

Tyler Durden's picture

If the UK was desperately hoping for a "terrible" economic print, it got it this morning after preliminary Q2 GDP printed 0.7% on expectations of a -0.2% decline, following a -0.3% drop in Q1, cementing the country's double dip collapse. Reuters explains: "The Office for National Statistics said Britain's gross domestic product fell 0.7 percent in the second quarter, the sharpest fall since early 2009 and a bigger drop than any of the economists surveyed in a Reuters poll last week had expected. The figures confirmed that Britain is mired in its second recession since the financial crisis, with the economy shrinking for a third consecutive quarter. It will add pressure on Osborne to get the economy growing again after a crisis that has left many Britons poorer as rising prices and higher taxes ate up meager wage increases. Sterling hit its lowest in nearly two weeks against the dollar after the data, and government bond prices rallied on speculation that the Bank of England may have to provide more economic stimulus than expected. Earlier this month the BoE has announced another 50 billion pound program of gilt purchases with newly created money to soften a grim economic outlook, but Wednesday's data is likely to add to market speculation that it may cut interest rates later this year. "This is terrible data. Frankly there's nothing good that comes out of these numbers at all," said Peter Dixon, an economist at Commerzbank. "The economy looks to be badly holed below the water line at this stage. It's a far worse period of activity than we'd expected."" Amusingly, according to Goldman "It is difficult to reconcile the weakness of today’s official
GDP data with any other indicator of economic or labour market activity."
We knew the peripherals were doing all they can to sabotage their economies and be eligible for more aid and bailouts. But the UK?

Surely this, together with the big German IFO miss, which came at 103.3 on expectations of a 104.5 print, and down from 105.2, which also proves that the European recession is engulfing Germany, is why futures have lifted 11 handles overnight and are now solidly in the green despite Apple and everything else.

Some more on UK GDP from a shocked Goldman:

BOTTOM LINE: According to the ONS’s Preliminary Estimate, UK GDP fell 0.7%qoq (-2.8%qoq annualised) in Q2 (Consensus -0.2%qoq; GS -0.1%qoq). The data is difficult to reconcile with any other indicator of economic or labour market activity and is likely to be revised higher over time.

 

1. The additional Jubilee holiday in June reduced Q2 GDP by 0.3%-0.4%qoq, on our estimates. But this distortion was factored into forecasts and, relative to expectations prior to the release, the surprise was substantial (Chart 1). The biggest misses in the sectoral data – relative to our expectations – were in Construction (which fell 5.2%qoq (not annualised) in Q2) and Transport and Communication (which fell 1.4%qoq; Table 1).

 

2. The ONS suggests that today’s Preliminary Estimate is subject to “greater uncertainty than usual” because of the additional Jubilee holiday and the effect of unusually bad weather in the quarter (it was the wettest second quarter in the UK since records began in 1910). The 'usual' uncertainty surrounding the ONS’s early GDP estimates is already pretty substantial: in the 10 years to 2010—the latest year for which fully-reconciled data are available—the average revision to the first release has been +0.1%qoq (+0.4%qoq annl.) and the average absolute revision has been +/-0.43%qoq (+/-1.8%qoq annl.). There have been seven quarters in the past 10 years (i.e., 18% of the time) when the revision to the original Preliminary GDP estimate has been 0.7ppt or larger. The largest revisions to GDP data typically occur 2/3 years after the initial release.

 

3. It is difficult to reconcile the weakness of today’s official GDP data with any other indicator of economic or labour market activity. Employment rose by 182k (or +0.6%) in the three months to May, unemployment fell from 8.3% to 8.1%, and private sector surveys – such as the PMIs – were consistent with GDP growth of around 1.0%-1.5%qoq annualised. Our UK Current Activity Indicator (CAI) – which is designed to distil information from a wide range of activity indicators and is distorted to a lesser extent by the additional holiday than the official data – has been consistent with GDP growth of around 1.0%-1.5%qoq annualised (Chart 2). In our view, the UK economy is sluggish, but it is not in recession.

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gojam's picture

More QE on it's way.

EconSammie's picture

The trouble is that all this QE hasn't done any good as pointed out below.

Regular readers will be aware that I am a critic of all the monetary expansion and never expected it to work. But nonetheless we are getting more of it- another £1 billion of Gilt purchases by the Bank of England today alone- as the Bank of England ploughs ahead regardless. We are also getting more and more hints that they are thinking of further base rate cuts. This seems to ignore the obvious fact that if you cut by 4.5% (from 5% to 0.5%) and it does not work what is the likelihood of another 0.25% or 0.5% working?
 
Actually I have been surprised that the Monetary Policy Committee hasn’t reduced base rates further. The more cynical amongst you might attribute this to the fact that the Bank of England makes a theoretical profit via the fact that it charges for the money for Quantitative Easing at the base rate! So whats 0.5% of £334 billion annualised?

 

http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/wp/shaun-richards/the-uk-economy-is-in-a-depression-now-so-much-for-quantitative-easing-doing-any-good/

And I notice the author has the courage to call it what it is, an economic depression.

economics9698's picture

Printing, allowing the elites to outbid the peasants for goods and services for over 200 years during the worst of times.

mspgrandi's picture

I do not understand ZH. what is the website agenda? is any bad news to be cheered upon?

So on one side you criticse the PIIGS adn the US govt for spending above their limits... adn on the other side you critcise UK govt. for bringing austerity and try live within our means.

 

the Numbers arent pretty, but if we sort our finances now we will bein a much better place thna many other countries in 3 years time.

 

Finally can you pls provide me some light on the positions you all have ?  am pretty sure your equities shorts and PM  longs are doing really well in the last 18 months

EmileLargo's picture

"Austerity" in the UK? What planet are you living on?

kralizec's picture

Everybody's printing now
Come on get those presses churning now
Go on a money-printing spree with me!

 

Muddy1's picture

Go long on paper, ink, assorted other printing supplies.

timbo_em's picture

QE is surely on its way. But I don't think that it's going to be that old-fashioned QE where the BoE buys government bonds. I think buying FTSE etfs is next on their agenda to save the Kingdom.

valley chick's picture

and how is this bullish??? all i see is the futures green...oh..thats right...bad is good?

doomandbloom's picture

Olympics will solve all problems....

1fortheroad's picture

Well that explains the 100 pip rip on the eur/usd

jez's picture

Ouch. I've never done that.

I did laugh all the way to the bank once. Just to see if I could. God, my jaw was aching by the time I got there.

Coffin Dodger's picture

I live in London and most people I know realise that something is terribly wrong with the system, but it's difficult to get people to think about it when the government continues using centuries old policies and the mass media are shit-scared to rock the boat.

I think we've reached the point where only major social discourse or a generalised collapse will focus the populations attention on the radical adjustments we all need to make to our lives.

BandGap's picture

It is slowly becoming that way here in the states so I think it is a common psychological response to what we are experiencing. I almost feel sorry for those who appear catatonic in the face of the inevitable.

The rub here is that the governments DO see what is happening and ARE bracing for what they believe is the proper response to what has to happen. When this much angst and insecurity is just below the surface it will be manifested in a monumental fashion when the bubble does burst. Many are waiting for this event, big or small, that will push the masses past the breaking point.

Something at the Olympics, perhaps?

economics9698's picture

Coffin if you want a good economy you have to understand sound money and unsound money.  There is  a book written by Salerno that explains it.

Basically England, America China, Japan, need to go back to 100% reserve banking with gold or silver. 

England and America need to stop the extinction of the native race by importing the rest of the third world into their country.

EscapeKey's picture

I'm down in Surrey, and you get two types here;

There's the type who stays militantly ignorant, and any attempt to point out the dire state leads to some suggestion that "you're always negative".

Then there's the alert type, who generally knows something bad is happening, but doesn't understand how one should prepare accordingly.

I've got 3 months worth of food stocked up, 3 currencies, and precious metals. My girlfriend thinks we should get seeds, etc, but what's really the use if we reach a worst-case scenario? Your self-supply will be raided by hungry neighbours in no time.

fonzannoon's picture

I am in the Northeast US and I would say out of every ten people I speak to I get ten similar responses: "you're always negative"

ParkAveFlasher's picture

I'm in NYC, even the whole "don't be negative" is getting old.  People are starting to follow the "prime defectors".

sessinpo's picture

Society has been conditioned to believe that things will always work out (i.e. the government will intervene and fix things). That has been the conditioning for about 100 years. They know nothing else. Most can't comprehend another economic depression. After all, we are so technologically advanced and smart now. That type of hubris is what will get many killed.

Totentänzerlied's picture

Intentional conditioning is not even required. Living in a human society, really any human society, provides all the conditioning necessary for this super-bias to take hold.

“Everything's fine today, that is our illusion.”

-Voltaire

BandGap's picture

I have stopped talking to certain people, it is of no use. Funny, but the surreal disregard has nothing to do with education or position in life. But I do find people who are more liberal leaning to be the most likely to be turning a blind eye. I have a circle of friends who understand.

Water is more importatnt than food at this point.

EscapeKey's picture

If there's one thing I don't worry about in the UK, it's water!

Sheesh, with the exception of the past few days, it's been raining every day since... what, 1993?

 

Coffin Dodger's picture

...except that our ability to capture and store that water is so shit, our infrastructure so strained at the seams, that until the last deluge we were in a fucking drought! A drought! In the UK!

Inthemix96's picture

Escape key.

I'm above you in Northumberland, and you're words here resonate with what I have found, I am always the negative one, always getting it in the neck because others choose not to see>  Sick of it mate, I have tried, even my own family including my own bloody brothers think I am mad as a march hare???

I will do what I can though, when I can, wish you luck in the future mate......

Coffin Dodger's picture

I agree with your gf, get the means to produce in the event of empty supermarket shelves. Also, sharing your seeds with hungry neighbours will make life a lot more tolerable. It won't be a case of 'what's mine is mine' any more, we'll have entered a whole new paradigm of 'working together to survive makes bloody good sense'. It's actually the way that the majority of the third world works.

I have a vague hope that when the new leaders emerge they will be honest with us and have a clear vision of what needs to be done. We badly need some people in power to trust/respect that sound credible and that we can agree with.

LULZBank's picture

 

I have a vague hope that when the new leaders emerge they will be honest with us and have a clear vision of what needs to be done.

In a nutshell, whats wrong with us humans. We cant be bothered except to hope that someone will come along and give us what we deserve. And they actually do.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Sadly, you are probably correct. Supply lines will break first as contracts are broken and essential items become harder to find and more expensive. Even then the sheeple might not wake up.

Totentänzerlied's picture

Bullish for New Deal 2.0, now with much more redistribution to far fewer beneficiaries. American feudalism? There's an app for that.

They will demand the government use all necessary means to "do something". It will be the neo-Keynesian's finest hour.

_underscore's picture

I'm not sure why there is such a fuss made about this. The 'West' (i.e. primarily US,UK,EUR, CAN, AUS etc.) have been living high on the hog to the detriment/cost of the rest of the planet for several hundred years - based on exploitation of cheap labour & natural resources.  Simple fact is for the past 20-30 years we've financed this by borrowing (since the rest of the world woke up & started making their own stuff &selling natural resources at a better price) but this is coming to an end. What we're seeing isn't an aberration of 'failure of policy' of some kind, it's no-one's fault really (bar maybe locally, in some instances, but not at the macro/societal level) - just the new reality.

 Whether in one quarter or another we build more houses or do each others hair more often or buy more plastic garden furniture makes not a jot of difference to our overall real wealth or real inflation-adjusted GDP.

My guess is that falling living standards will be masked by nominal improvements in an inflating currency, even though our own eyes will tell us differently. For Indians/Chinese/Africans/whomever  to get richer, we have to get poorer, there's just not enough cheap natural resource to go around anymore. The old nostrums & Keynesian 'remedies' of fiscal/monetary adjustments just won't work without (the implied) unlimited cheap power/oil/raw materials.

Get used to it - protect what wealth you can by becoming as a-fiat (i.e. PM rich) as possible, cut down your external dependencies as much as possible, store useful stuff, eat less meat, grow more veg.

 

 

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

underscore: wrong about so much, sooo wrong you must read al gore..but right about protecting wealth, no one is always wrong (excpt krugman), so one out of ten is the way most over educated (brain washed) score. sorry most of your post is on par with save the polar bears from sun burn.

_underscore's picture

Well, OMUS, if you care to post any sort of cohesive point(s) / rebuttals, rather than simple nay-saying, I'll gladly respond.  

blunderdog's picture

(Psst: dude hasn't gotten a leg over in years.  He's grouchy.)

blunderdog's picture

Yeah, that's about right, but the standard of living doesn't HAVE to drop to Third-World levels--we could preserve living standards and still reduce resource footprint and cost of living by improving efficiency.

In the US, efficiency improvements have been made, but it's always only by people being dragged kicking and screaming into it.  No one's ever tried to articulate a coherent vision of how a less resource-intensive society could remain comfortable and luxurious.  Or if they have, they've been drowned out by the dead-enders who can't tolerate listening to anyone talk about change.

_underscore's picture

Yes Bd - agree entirely in the greater efficiency argument. On a  trip  to Phoenix, Arizona (in summer 2000, so things may have changed now) I was struck by by the constant background noise of flat-roof mounted house aircon systems - I wondered why more solar panels weren't used (in fact, I wasn't aware of any..) in the almost guaranteed sunshine for that part of the year. The great advantage I see the 'West' as having, is a mostly-built infrastructure with a more or less efficient housing stock. One thing that did impress in the USA was the quality & robustness of the engineering in 2000 - things looked built to last (much like H-D motorcycles) & I thought of the low cradle-to-grave eco-footprint well built things make.  I personally eschew any Chinese built crap - difficult sometimes, but if you search you can find quality alternatives if you look (c.f. the old Jewish proverb, 'you buy cheap you buy twice').

I personally estimate I can reduce my (new) resource requirement by 30-40% without feeling particularly hard done by (i.e. subjectively living at the same standard as before) by careful thought & forward planning.

One trivial (though telling) anecdote - my niece, who pleads constant poverty, has a house filled with plastic toys (probably produced in China for pennies..) that each cost more than their weekly food costs - yes, they eat cheap high fat/sugar crap because "...food's so expensive..", and probably develop insipient heart disease in the process. It's a crazy, damaging & wasteful mis-allocation of resource & commonsense.

 

blunderdog's picture

Air conditioning is truly a perfect example of something which can be improved dramatically.  You can easily power a swamp-cooler with solar-panels, and running one in parallel with other systems would make a huge difference.  Similar things can be done with water heating. 

jez's picture

Yeah. Another contributing factor (amongst many) may be that there aren't many people around any more who can remember what life was like during the Great Depression.

 

Time passes, lessons are forgotten, succeeding generations grow up ignorant and overconfident. It is assumed that tomorrow will be much like today.

marz929's picture

WHERE IS JON CORZINE?

CunnyFunt's picture

He's in his bunker, counting his gold eagles and cleaning his rifles.

sessinpo's picture

Counting money, yes. Cleaning rifles, I doubt he even knows how, much less shoot one. He would make great cannon fodder.

Freebird's picture

Just sit back & have a nice cup of tea.

Byte Me's picture

Don't worry, "Big Society" will save the day for Camerosbourne.

Personally, I always thought much more of one of his predecessor's  "Cones Hotline" as a policy tool.

aleph0's picture

 

 

Exactly as I was expecting :

CB manipulation ... the GBP is too strong , so they bring out some bad news.

It's all about the "Central Planned" Fiat Economy  ... keeping them (EUR) on a paar that doesn't cause panic.

IMHO

New_Meat's picture

"... it got it this morning after preliminary Q2 GDP printed 0.7% on expectations of a -0.2% decline,..."

... er ... is that a -0.7%?

- Ned

koaj's picture

come on fans of Man U. break some windows!!! you guys need some GDP growth

giggler123's picture

The next announcement will be a forced merger of the UK into the euro, dumping sterling - perhaps not next but its on the cards for sure.  They cannot obtain their new world order objective unless all members join.

 

It's obvious from reading blogs and web news that the UK would have been part of the euro back when it started; it's just the likes of goldman couldn't hide our dwarfing debt ponzi like they did for poor little greece and meet individual member state entry requirements.  They'd of had to publish detailed information about the UK's real debt burden + shadow banking that would of been met with laughter.

 

People talk of double dip but I can only speak of on the ground and the picture from that I've seen is that we never left the first recession, just another game of smoke and mirrors, my next door neighbour, a builder has had little to no work for 2years and has moved a lot of his belongings to Spain to sit it out; his wife lost her job a year ago, thankfully now employed and myself out of work for a half a year.  Wages have not increased, 8years I earned the same daily rate, accept now it doesn't buy as much.

 

Speak to most common folk on the frontline of life and I'm pretty sure they'll echo the same words, but ask MSM to comment or a politician and they'll say there are green shoots everywhere, probably mentioning the olympics, along with how much business it will create.

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IToldYouSo's picture

Ingenious yet strangely very annoying at the same time.

You clearly got ZH mixed up with ebay - easy mistake for a moron I suppose

now fuck off you freek