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(Broke) Monkey See, (Broke) Monkey Do

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Monkey See, Monkey Do

Irish Finance Minister saying that whatever the ECB does with Greece would be of interest to Ireland.  So if ECB forgives Greek debt (directly or through EFSF), Ireland is going to want the same deal.  Portugal won't be far behind.  And why stop at ECB and not go for PSI as well?

They continue to negotiate in Athens, but the reality is they should step back from the table.  They are locked into positions and slowly coming to the middle for some agreement,  yet they should be stopping and asking themselves if what they are doing is right.

On top of that, they are negotiating long term plans when Greece just missed January numbers by an astronomical 1 billion euro!  That is a massive miss on data that should have been relatively easy to predict.  What is the probability of future calculations being accurate when things that were estimated only a couple of months ago fail so miserably?

In the meantime, stocks continue to rally back from every setback.  Maybe Mr. Fink will shut down all the blackrock fixed income funds in an effort to help push all investors into 100% equity?  (you have to give him credit for not talking his own book)

 

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Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:32 | 2138642 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Democracy. Doing it right!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:44 | 2138663 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

The GREEK's invented it and a whole bunch of other things...

It's Fitting for them now, they are about to take the EU down...

 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 22:25 | 2138753 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Monkey pee, monkey doo.

 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 15:13 | 2138787 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

The Irish have been very quiet over this whole debt crisis so far! But it is only half time in Ireland (cue Clint Eastwood and his shitty super bowl ad), but the Irish will have the last laugh because Once Greece goes belly up, now the Irish will hold the EU and the banking system by the short and curlies, and now they will get the terms they want and fuck the bankers all the way home!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 15:41 | 2138863 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I don't want to have a fight with someone that could lead me to a pot of gold ;-) and I'm generally quite optimistic.

Having said that, my confidence in the current government of Ireland is quite low - I had the impression they would reverse some of the stupid decisions of the former one, and they did nothing... Remember the AngloIrish bailout? What gives you more confidence in them than me?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:39 | 2140661 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

Hey, what's up with the Irish anyway. The Irish have never been know as the type of people to walk away from a good scrap. Why aren't they rebelling?

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:33 | 2138645 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Don't stop at Italy!

France will get all uppity that they aren't in the friends & family plan.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:33 | 2138646 non_anon
non_anon's picture

spank that monkey, bitchez!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 16:01 | 2138950 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Primates Porking Pigskin...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:33 | 2138649 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Does he read ZH?  Dork of Cork?

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:39 | 2138669 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

An Apple a Day keeps the doctor away.....  i mean

5 points on appl a day keeps the bear away

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 15:52 | 2138901 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

It does appear that they are using Aapl to hold the Market together and go up a little every day.  But, the stock is way overbought here.

I think it has a lot to do with the comming Facebook IPO.  All Nazdaq stocks are up since they filled last week

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 18:38 | 2139571 hyper-critical
hyper-critical's picture

Perfomance chasing/institutional fear of lagging the markets is palpable. I never short off all-time highs, but beware what's lurking around the corner...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:39 | 2138670 GeneMarchbanks
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'In the meantime, stocks continue to rally back from every setback.  Maybe Mr. Fink will shut down all the blackrock fixed income funds in an effort to help push all investors into 100% equity?  (you have to give him credit for not talking his own book)'

Um, no you don't as he owns equities already.

Also, Ireland isn't Greece, the latter is giving the EU much bad press while Ireland is not going to get similar treatment even if they beg. One default setting off cascading defaults isn't really anything but conventional wisdom at this point. The problem? well, it's conventional. Let's see how things look when the Greek default is 'official' before we go all dominoes.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:48 | 2138673 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

 

At some point some political party is going to demand an economic analysis of what Greece looks like NOT IN 2012 POST DEFAULT, BUT IN 2015.

There is no law of the universe that says Greece defaulting means Greece leaves the Euro.  Maybe they just say they'll pay when they can and not announce provocative default.  And continue in the Euro.

There is no treaty mechanism for a country leaving the Euro either voluntary or involuntary.  I suspect strongly Greece in 2015 with ZERO interest payments looks better than Greece in 2015 in any other configuration, regardless of whether 2012 has upheaval.

The banks will continue to send bills for interest, but so it goes.  And overall truth is it really doesn't matter if this works or not.  It just has to look like a seat winning position for a political party and scare the others.

Politics could push this into something they won't call default, but a "temporary suspension of debt service".

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:52 | 2138719 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

they may try that but the weimar/zim style hyper-inflation will set in before 2015...or a massive deflation as the system grinds to a halt.  

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 15:25 | 2138813 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Such an event would certainly have ramifications, but it seems that the time has come for those parties to start asking  . . . "system grinds to a halt . . . . and what happens the next day?"

It's the next day at issue.  This flinging about of "collapse" and "reset" and "system grinds to a halt" phrases can be used politically to win seats.  The day after collapse people still draw breath.  Greece would still use the Euro.  There would still be Euros around.

The deficit goes to 0 instantly, true, but no more interest payments.  That has to start to paint an interesting picture by 2013 or 2014.  No one will starve.  The Red Cross won't allow it.

Anyway, this could win seats.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 15:53 | 2138911 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you are 100% correct with "There is no law of the universe that says Greece defaulting means Greece leaves the Euro"

in fact, Montenegro uses the EUR without being an official part of the eurozone (and saves on funding an own Central Bank)

Greece could default and still be an official member of the eurozone. Greece could default and even get further money from the others.

It's our dear global banks that don't want Greece to default in any way that does not make them money...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:41 | 2138678 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

It's good to be Greece. Calling the shots. Tell the ECB you will not accept any haircuts, and want 100% TOTAL debt forgiveness. Or exit the Euro. Let them decide.

 

Does Greece not realize they have the EZ by the short hairs?

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 15:23 | 2138808 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Either way they pay nothing. Great freakn idea..

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:42 | 2138681 resurger
resurger's picture

1-800-DOMINOS


Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:53 | 2138718 mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

this euro usd trade is the trade of which currency is worse thats all...but truth be told the us fed can manipulate their currecny alot easier than the ecb.....either way still think if uncle ben didnt give his bs no rate hike until at least 2014 eur usd is much lower....look at the eur aud from the lows up marginally from 1/17 low of 1.2228 to 1.2290 on the rumor mill in europe

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 15:47 | 2138890 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

and the EURUSD is such a huge beast. now imagine how much easier it would be to manipulate the european currencies without the EUR.

a speculator's wet dream - the nightmare of some 60% of the intra-eurozone trade/supply chains

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:54 | 2138726 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Can anyone say "Strategic defaults / borrowing"

If you don't have to pay the money borrowed back...why bother? Threaten to default and get a Greek deal...give Greek to the ECB  hard and fast until they spew bailouts......

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:59 | 2138731 yogibear
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When you hand out ice cream and candy to your crying kid the rest of the kids want the same or they will start crying.

ECB get ready to take 100% haircuts across all the rest of the PIIGS. Just like Greece. Italy can scream louder and is bigger.

 

Greece can stay in the Euro and just keep threating to default. Life is good when your making the Euro leaders have sleepless nights.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:57 | 2138738 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Irish Finance Minister saying that whatever the ECB does with Greece would be of interest to Ireland.

To Irish finance minister everything that ends up in someone else paying for irish politicians huge mistakes would be of interest to Ireland. Just like with every other insolvent country in Europe.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 15:12 | 2138784 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Ah, the Altruist Mr. Fink, pushing out bondholders into those very same iShare ETFs, one of the largest ETF names on the street (if not the largest) owned by BlackRock itself.

Maybe the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing, but I would say both hands know damn well ...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 15:16 | 2138795 NotApplicable
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"...yet they should be stopping and asking themselves if what they are doing is right."'

Put. The. Crack. Pipe. Down.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 15:21 | 2138804 flacorps
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I do not understand why the PIIGS do not unite and demand a one-time, for all-time solution. Together they would obviously have the negotiating strength to obtain more favorable terms than they could separately.

Ideally, they would all stop utilizing the Euro, and a second currency would be created (perhaps to be called the EuroSur or something equally cute). The PIIGS could form a fiscal union amongst themselves and get to work bootstrapping their respective economies while the remaining countries in the Euro decide whether to do the same. They could recapitalize their banks collectively with their new currency.

Of course the EuroSur countries would devalue their currencies. But it would beat the heck out of the current tail-chasing that Europe is doing.

At some point in the future when the two currencies stabilized relative to each other, the Europeans could take another look at reuniting under a single currency ... this time with some actual fiscal responsibility baked in at the outset.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 15:46 | 2138883 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you are using the US/UK-propaganda assumption that they hate the EUR in it's current form.

and "fiscal respondibility" is a very flexible term, since 1971

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 16:04 | 2138914 whateverwhatever
whateverwhatever's picture

Belgium and Ireland aren't in the geographic south.  There would be some "northern" economies in the 2nd tier euro-like substance.

Maybe the 2nd tier European currency could be a purgatory for new currency zone aspirants with recent and shaky economic pasts, such as Iceland.  A decade or so in the minor leagues, and then into the "northern euro" or "first tier euro" club after an honest demonstration of fiscal restraint and economic growth.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 15:34 | 2138846 mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

seems to me that greece is really in the driver seat otherwise explain to me why her merkel hasnt told them to fuck themselves

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 15:43 | 2138876 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

because the banks are lobbying hard?

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 15:43 | 2138878 walküre
walküre's picture

one word

PRECEDENT

That's why there's so much attention to this deal. If you're a bank and you're asked to forgive a loan to Greece, then you just know that all the other suckers out there want the same deal.

Banks - between a rock and a hard place. We ought to feel sorry for them and start a collection.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 16:01 | 2138937 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

It seems to me that if the majority of people cannot make more money, even with inflation there is no way they can generate enough revenue to pay all of the outstand debt.  Not only in America but the World.  Our Global Corporations drift to get their products made in the Countries with the cheepest labor, which cuts wages across all Nations and lowers Tax Revenues needed to pay the outsanding Countries Debts.

But, the amout of Austerity that you can get out of people is limited as the old quote says "you cannot get blood out of a turnip.

When people have nothing to lose, they also do not have anything to tax.  It is just gone.

 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 16:42 | 2139129 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Hear no default (Deaf)

Speak no default (Dumb)

                   See no default (Blind) 

 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 20:39 | 2139960 Jerry Maguire
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Once it starts, you can't stop...until it's all gone.  All the debt.  All of it.

http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com/2012/02/08/contagion-of-debt-forgivene...

 

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