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Broken Market Update
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
Well, stock futures have already had a decently volatile session. From a low of 1112 all the way back to 1142, with a couple of 10 point moves in between. Broken. I think credit markets are telling you that this is a great second chance to short stocks if you didn't last time. MAIN is basically unchanged. SOVX is 4 wider, back to 292. More concerning, since the crisis has been infiltrating the banks is that SocGen is 15 wider at 320, and BAC is 5 wider even while their stocks are trading up. Those all seem like pretty solid warning signs that stocks so far are ignoring.
The mortgage insurers, PMI in particular are in deep trouble. PMI is trading at 70 points up front (+5 on the day), making Greece look like a safe haven. I have heard PMI bonds are now trading "flat" so investors aren't willing to pay for accrued. Psychologically if nothing else, a default on this name will not do anything to help the housing market.
While some people are debating the merits and likelihood of Eurobonds, others are more concerned that the existing promised bailouts will fully materialize as each country is starting to act in their own best interests - Finland and collateral as a prime example. I think it is far more likely that the existing plans fail to materialize or help than that we get a Eurobond issue anytime soon.
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Don't take your eye off the ball, (Socgen). She's a little rickety. All it will take is the smell of a run, anywhere, and over the cliff she goes.
yup, wait for the entry for the short. There's no racing to the bottom, just free falling.
in mid fall the baby of sarkozy will be bailed out
On Aug 8 the S&P futures when under 1100 in the futures market.
Most technicians will call this a confirmed BEAR market now.
CPL - Do you have internet access in the nuke bunker?
Based on your previous warning, I sold everything and moved to a chunk of ice off the coast of Antarctica. You didn't lead me astray, did you?
Why would you move somewhere that you have no clue how to live and you are completely dependent on external resources to survive. Anycase...hope you sold and are in a position that won't get you drafted or won't let you starve. Although my understanding there won't be much differenciation between the two.
...Never undertood that concept of a nuke bunker, if a modern nuke hit somewhere like NYC, even here in Canada the options would be starve or die of radiation poisoning once you eventually left the bunker and ran out of resources. I'm afraid most of the scenarios from the 50's are incredibly rosy. If eight nukes were dropped on the US, 90% of Canada would be dead the same day along with the US. Somewhere like England and the Isles, just need to drop a nuke off the coast and let the wind poison everything.
Stay safe.
Bullshit...more than 500 air burst detonations have happened...MANY right here in the good 'ol USA. We didn't ALL die.
Did they now.
Otherwise here's some light reading.
http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/tpg/taipan-daily/taipan-daily-08181...
To answer the air tests.
http://www.nv.doe.gov/library/publications/historical/DOENV_209_REV15.pdf
Airburst was done only once. All the rest are payloads dropped from the air. Want to guess why there was only one airburst?
Thanks my man.
It is a testimony to your credibility that many of us remember your paranoid rants a few weeks ago and challenged you on it.......
A weak poster would not have gotten any response.
By the way, my paranoid rants happen once per quarter.....
Thanks but i'm going with the "rubber band is stretched" thesis.
Long term, you know like this week, we haven't retested the Aug 8 lows, and they're selling a lot of bonds this week. It takes a lot of gnashing of teeth to sell 200 billion in AA bonds at negative real rates.
chavez is the biggest market/testicle breaker
http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/22/is-venezuela-next/
So even though Merkel and Sarkozy have said no Eurobonds, the financial media is insisting there will be?
No, Merkel opened her pie hole this weekend and said "for now". This has been interpreted by the short bus crowd as their queue to bid up the Euro and buy LULU and CMG.
the german people won't let merkel bend them over and fuck them with eurobonds/efsf/budgetary union. fuck no. why the fuck should they pay for spain, greece and italy to work 10 hour weeks, retire at 45 and get free govt hookers? fuck no.
That's Funny, Merkel's Pie Hole.
Asymmetric markets, female dogs!
And we should call Eurobonds Eurobunds and be done with this fake name paradigm, eh?
Or Le Eurobunds, which pretty much covers it.
Vivek (ORI)
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Europe reversed from being -0.5% on open to 2.5% as we speak. Are they happy that the Libyan 144tons of Gold will finaly assist the bailout?
But most of that gold goes to Chavez who tells the ECB 'Put it on a boat to me now'.
The market is so depressed that any news that isn't even more depressing is good news.
Market like a manic depressive teenage girl, one minute sobbing helplessly in the corner, the next running around the room throwing glitter confetti in joy!
From a neuroscience perspective happiness is a purely relative phenomenon. The teenager in Beverly Hills who only got a Beemer for her 16th birthday, not the Ferrari her friend got, is bummed. The Afghan farmer who hasn't had a single bomb fall on his fields for a full month feels on top of the world. I wonder if the robots feel the same way.
What is PMI referring to?
The PMI group
Poor Moron Index
from the context... mortgage insurer
and this sounds like news, Aug 19 they are outtabusiness, well new business so far...
http://www.pmi-us.com/media/pdf/PMI_Customer_Announcement081911.pdf
SovX WE still wider than SovX CEEMEA - you know, the latter being deemed the more risky out of the bunch..and yet, CDS indicates otherwise.
Thank you, periphery PIIGS.
Need help today too, PMI?
Thanks in advance. I have been searching in Yahoo! Finance for "PMI CDS" and other combinations, but couldn't find the answer, do you know any place where I could search for it next time? Thanks as always.
Edit: Ok, seems that I didn't read much the post, I guess it's some kind of Mortgage Insurers CDS.
The PMI group
Not a very liquid CDS in any case... and the 70 pts upfront means how much you pay to the CDS seller. The value of this upfront is the PV of the premium discounted at the risky rate
Broken unless you know, ahead of time, which way they are going to gap the open. Then, I would suggest it's anything but broken. It probably pays handsomely to be an insider in this game.
Short Market? right.. Go against the flow, short GOLD and buy Market. How about that? Total EUR Zone Debt to GDP is lower than USA debt to GDP in total, so, set your records straight.
You can always tell which traders are fairly new to the game. They always think they can call the terminal tops in uptrends and bottoms in downtrends. Good luck shorting gold and going long "2 PE stocks" there buddy!
Tyler,
I am seeing a lot of "smart money" traders and "technical" traders penning articles that all the insiders are buying like crazy. Seems like bullshit to me, your thoughts,please? It seems to me that the bump from QE3 can't be that big with the state of all fiat and the situation in Europe.
Yeah, they'll tell ya it's fake, buy canned
BBQ beans, hide under the rock and wait for
Collapse of the World Fin. system, Revolution, Ron Paul and Gold standard..
Those guys are full of it.. :)))
Well MoneyWise if you think its all good, place ya bets long then!
I do, I have few stocks with PE near 2,
Even double deep will not take them much
lower. Ohh. And by the way Check Dividend
Calendar, look how many companies are paying
large dividends
nowadays, + some juicy Special dividends,
Did anyone see that in any recession..???
I tell you 1 more time, this Recession talk
is complete BS. Perhaps time of the slower growth
in US and faster growth in China and elsewhere in Asia, After all those guys have huge upside potential in terms of Consumer spending, long way to
go..
Mean while
High frequency m*f*ckers responsible for those 400+
DOW swings, FTC should reinstate Uptick Rule, plain
and simple.
Buy the F deep, or watch how others will scalp
20+% off this market by the year end.
WOW thats really great! 2 P/E stocks, I bet theyre going places.
Make ALL selling subject to upticks ha ha. Yes lots of REAL CASH MONEY getting spit out this week, you don't get that from holding a Treasury anymore.
You might want to read some history before spewing out a bunch of crazy opinions and recycled baloney from CNBC. Maybe companies are paying out huge dividends because they can't otherwise attract investors. If you consider yourself well informed and intelligent, then stick by your opinions and double down, I dare you.
This economy is going nowhere, but you are going to the poorhouse.
He doesn't have any more money after the last month.
Every good choice, like a good trade, should be properly hedged. Ride the equity wave while converting profits hedged against physical assets and re-investment (buying low) of all kinds my friend. For me, those assets can vary considerably, but most are related to keeping the business going.
At the end of the day, more and more people are remembering what real value is. Bad news for paper-pushing fucknuts.
Lws, remember through most of last year and this, insiders were selling furiously? All time recored selling. Covered extensively here. Well, at these fallen levels, they are probably buying on command and they still made a big buck.
I assume this was the plan all along. Insiders Sell high, buy low. Nice when you are instructed thusly, eh?
Vivek (ORI)
Do worry ORI, things get more and more interesting as fewer and fewer are now being "instructed"
I still see a major war as the only way out, simply no other way unless you accept that there will be world wage, and living standards parity. The good news is you can play with the paper from anywhere in the world now (as you know) so why not do it from your beach or mountain villa? Cheers.
OT: Gotta love this one.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44225282
AH yes let the pensioners have the hard to sell IE worthless assets....probably taste better than the cat food theyre presently eating.
I'm sure that increased morale around the office. Imagine working for one of these jackels?
Funny how the regulators try, but it's like squeezing a bulloon with 2 feather's.
Tyler, feel free to expose the fraud that is retail brokerage research...
This is in my email box this morning -- from UBS Retail Research:
Mike Ryan (bio), Stephen Freedman (bio), and Jeremy Zirin (bio)
We are recommending a reduction in equity exposure from an overweight to a neutral tactical stance in portfolios consisting of stocks bonds and cash. We do not take such a move lightly following the significant correction equities have already undergone. But to maintain an overweight position at this juncture would require that investors buy into the market amid the selloff and increase equity weightings from current levels. We believe that the risk of further financial stress in the Eurozone over the next three months, coupled with a higher risk of recession in developed economies including the US makes the risk / reward trade off appear much more neutral for equities.
This was in my email box on August 8th (also from UBS Retail Research):
Mike Ryan, Jeremy Zirin, Stephen Freedman
UBS First Take: Sit Tight 8.8.11
Stocks continued their rapid decline on Monday, driven by increased concerns over the European sovereign debt crisis and the risk of a negative feedback loop between financial markets and the US economy. Recent economic data releases and forward-looking corporate earnings revisions continue to point to a slower, but non-recessionary environment in the second half of the year. Equity valuations – especially relative to bonds – appear very compelling. While valuation alone is rarely a catalyst to stem rapid market declines, investors with a 6-12 month time horizon will be rewarded, in our view. Therefore, while further equity market downside can certainly not be excluded given the broad-based selling that is going on, we recommend that investors with equity exposure sit tight at this advanced stage of the sell-off.
These people should be charged with fraud.
They should change their name from UBS to We Be Full of BS.
They never say "be neutral" after a large dive. Does this mean that they KNOW the stocks are about to plunge?
That may be why...
Treasuries Price In QE3 as Barclays Says Traders Anticipate $500 Billionhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-21/treasuries-price-in-qe3-as-barc...
G-20. BINGO. G-20 bonds denominated in an SDR like reserve. United We Stand. Is it getting warm in here or is it just me?
How do we get in ontrading those bonds? I knowof at least two venture capital guys that are in Germany right now for emergency meetings. The only question is, who is twisting who's arm?
What s wonderful opportunity to SHORT some MORE this morning, this "bounce" is a God sent!
"I think credit markets are telling you that this is a great second chance to short stocks if you didn't last time."
F'ck that. I wouldn't touch this shit with monopoly money. This market could zoom +5% and squeeze you out, then plunge -5% and leave you hanging, all in the span of about 5 minutes. It's nothing but a clueless piece of Python waiting for the Bernank's input.
Me neither, I fully expect markets to tank from here but Im not touching it with a 10 foot pole! My plan is complete, convert paper into PM's and other assets.
They can all have their fake markets and go play with themselves now.
Bernanke has throughly ruined markets forever, I know old pro traders who wont touch it now.
I agree completely. It hasn't functioned like a market for some time. In fact, I have come to realize that it never was a market.
On May 18, 1792, two of the larger traders on Wall Street discovered that if they just sat on the sidelines until smaller traders clustered onto one side of the trade, they could collectively jump in and run their stops. Soon other big traders got in on action and the game has never been the same.
It's not a market. It never was. The big difference today is you can see behind the curtain.
Once again all done in pre market micro trading, 30 points on ES like theyre trading baseball cards. These people should all be shot.
Capital will never form in a system this corrupt, they can now only scheme ways to get more imaginary money in the dead empty casino.
kids at the back of the bus trading baseball cards - too funny
This smells like a Bin Laden rally with half the shelf life.
Agreed. Now to wait for multiple consecutive margin hikes in the next target of this game of Global Thermonuclear Whack-a-Mole.
Followed by yet another chance to get more physical. What a great game this is!
I smell truth in your statement.
adding to shorts
Why shorting SocGen ? It's the 35st safest bank in the world :
http://www.gfmag.com/tools/best-banks/11341-worlds-50-safest-banks-2011....
Or does that mean that EVERY bank sucks ?
I love how the financial media is now in charge of what world financial markets do, theyre not just commentators but now are acting like theyre in charge not taking Merkels statements of 'No Eurobonds' sitting down. They now pick up the ball and run with it saying 'Surely Eurobonds are coming within days'.
Next we'll be watching the Sunday NFL TV commentators calling the plays on the field, not simply analyzing what the coaches and QB's on the field are calling. John Madden himself can call all plays for BOTH teams...how sweet would that be!
And the CNBC blowhorn clowns can phone in to ECB and FED meetings and tell them just how they expect things to be announced.
Next, CNBC will suggest that in a real democracy, you should be able to phone in your vote for Eurobonds just like in American Idol.
CCB and BAC
Looking at futures recover all of Fridays loss before the gates open....just stupid, full retard market. Thanks for completely ruining it Ben.
Insider algos buying all night so that they can sell to you all day. Same as it ever was.
This monday morning rally will be built upon a solid foundation of improving economic fundamentals and sound monetary policy. [/sarcasm]
Shorting this market now is suicide. Way too oversold. And why would you short a bull market. Sure gold looks toppy on the charts, sure it needs a stiff kick in the balls to bring it back from orbit and a correction will happen. But is it at 1,850, 1,900 or 2,000. None of us know. Just stay the course. And I still think the miners are poised for a breakout at some point. At least that has been my bet for a long while now.
And if the head inmate even makes a passing comment about a QE3 the market will rocket higher for a while. Then, at some point I will short this sucker with gusto.
The miner-oz gold price correlation never existed. Just because gold goes up does not mean shareholders in gold diggers goes up. 'QE3 announcement' will be no knee jerk, it has to be sized and unless its a whopper unlike anyone has ever seen before, will faceplant.
Gold is not 'in orbit', its simply correlated with dollar decline and if anything has been held down.
sheepDog, agree with you but so many just look at the chart and we are way above the 200dma. That may put a cap on it for a while, does not change the fundamentals but those who play the chart are looking for a sharp pull-back. And orbit was too strong, just overbought short term would have been better. But we are on the same page for sure.
I believe they have to cap gold as best they can, while at the same time go into 'fear and panic' mode on stocks to somehow or other get a QE or theyre finished. They want it all ways at once, it will be interesting to see how they try to pull this off, and I predict any 'QE' will be a downer, not a diamond encrusted massive gift as everyone is expecting.
I agree, TPTB have a lot of balls in the air. They can't keep gold down if they continue to buy, and they are rapidly losing the ability to act in coordination. I believe some nations are buying on the sly while pretending to cooperate in suppressing gold prices. Others, like China are full out telling the Fed and ECB to stick it.
I also agree about the QE3 effects not being all positive. If that announcement is made, there will be severe repercussions. Stocks will rise, but not as high as everyone thinks and then they will give back all of their gains.
The day traders must be very pleased.
In other news, Jack Layton is dead.
Broken because it goes up? That's fraudulent reporting. I guess the market has been broken for a hundred years, since it's been going up that whole time.
Unless youre Seabisquit with blinders on, no one here ever said the market is fine if down, broken if up. So Ben just get back to what you do best, applying oil to the squeekiest wheel on this piece of crap broken down hoopdie jalopy youve built.
Well, I haven't been around for 100 years and since my employess and I have been investing (1999 I started the company) it is actually DOWN. So wrong again ben. It may be up for that 1% of insiders, but not the average Joe. I just hope that 1% stays in shape. The 99% are looking forward to some fresh meat. <snark>
Just glad I know how to diversify and be my own central bank (accumulating gold since 1992 - grnadfather lived through the depression and two world wars). Those of you with capital and gold should consider this as well.
Even without adjusting for inflation, that statement doesn't pass the laugh test.
Templeton says "the only way is up" http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-22/templeton-s-mobius-sees-stock-markets-rising-on-inflation-1-.html Is he right?
Yes if the dollar is collapsing. In which case I dont want to own either stocks or dollars. Leave playing higher stocks priced in collapsing dollars to the retards.
Stocks in Weimar Germany tanked, but then went up 27X between Oct. 1922 and Oct. 1923. Nobody was pleased with the results because they still lost purchasing power.
Stocks are a death trap in these situations
RE and Dollar will continue to drop.
PMs will continue to rise.
GL!
If they boost S&P then they will sell off metals to get liquidity......shall we then start offloading gold and silver? To add, the Fed and Comex now have extra 144 tonnes of physical metal from Libyan Central Bank vaults....
Chavez says 'Ship it to me now!'
out of Libyan 144 tonnes they will now take 90 for Chavez
Take all logical argument of why gold and silver prices must fall and apply the same logic to last year, and the year before.
Stocks have fallen, and risen, dramatically, over the past few years, and yet the liquidity argument didn't hold water, because gold kept right on rising.
The Fed and COMEX already had access to plenty of physical gold over the last few years, and yet prices continued to rise. The reason this is so is because they themselves want the physical. They don't want to release it onto the market for China to snap up.
The liquidity argument and the extra 144 tons of physical from Libya are irrelevant to the situation. They are just clever arguments to get you to dump your PMs.
I see no case being made for QE3 at all, if we can follow drops with +200 opens, there is no fear and panic. If they want a diamond encrusted QE, you can bet soon we'll see some huge down days and we just havent had them yet at all.
No "huge down days"? 5% down is not good enough? Huh.
Nothing broken about a volatile market. Volatility is HEALTHY. Markets going up and down is a sign of health and capitalism working. Markets going up 0.3% every day like clockwork without any volatility.. THAT is unhealthy.
.
Radical turn for CNBS Jim buybuybuy Cramer...
"this market is broken, take this opportunity to get out...
banks are bad, tech is bad, get out while you can"
maybe he finally logged on to zh
tyler,
ted spread up to 30.. is this the sign you looking at?
Can anyone offer a reasonable explanation for why the Baltic Dry Index has been rocketing higher the past several sessions and again this morning?
in my limited knowledge/experience of these things i would have thought with the numerous slow-down recessionary signals that it would either be flatlining or continuing its decline.
if there ever was a gift to shorts, this was it, today was it
Looks like the (yawn) Libya market bump lasted about two hours. Wonder which way the herd will move now? Hmmm ...